RED ENCABO & JILLIAN ESTROPE

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Red Encabo and Jillian Estrope
Mrs. Dewey
FST and Class Section 10B
25 March 2015
Grow Your Roots
Grow Your Roots is a carnival game that is completely based by chance. However, the
odds are not in favor of the player: the player is expected to lose more money rather than make a
profit from the game (details about the games expected value will arrive later). While a player
can still win up to $9.00 ($12.00 including the cost of the game), winning the highest possible
amount has a lower probability of occurring.
For the game, a marble is inserted onto a track, where it will then be split into two
sections each time like tree roots (hence the name of the game). The process continues four
times, and the marble falls into one of the three boxes: one small box on the left (20% of the
bottom space) and another small box on the right (20% of the bottom space) indicate a large
prize, while the larger box (60% of the bottom space) in the middle indicates a small prize.
After the marble hits one of the three boxes at the bottom of the board, a ten-numbered
spinning wheel, installed onto the left of the board, is spun to determine whether the player
doubles the prize, keeps the prize (neither lost or doubled), or loses everything. Determined by
one of the ten numbers of the spinning wheel, the player doubles the prize if the number 10 is
chosen; the prize remains the same if the numbers 2, 3, 7, or 8 are chosen, and the player loses
the prize if the numbers 1, 4, 5, 6, and 9 are chosen. Theoretically based on the sample spaces of
doubling the prize, keeping the prize the same, and losing the prize, 10% of the wheel will

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double the players prize; 40% of the wheel will keep the amount the same, and 50% of the
wheel will result in the player losing the prize.

Figure 1. Carnival Game Diagrams

An illustration of the side view and top view of Grow Your Roots is shown in figure 1.
The side view of the carnival game, on the left of the figure, shows that the track is declining to
roll the marble towards the bottom of the board where the boxes are located (right side of the
side view). On the right of the figure, the top view shows that the board is symmetrical--similar
to Pascals triangle--giving the marble a 50% probability of going left or going right at each split.
The left of the board includes an installed spinning wheel, which is used to double, keep, or
eliminate the prize won by the marble.

Rules:

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1. The player will be required to pay $3.00 to play the carnival game.
2. Obtain one marble from the bag next to the board. Return the bag to its original location after
using it.
3. Place the marble at the starting position, which is indicated with a thick brown line.
4. Release the marble: if the marble gets stuck, start over and place a new marble (or the original
marble) at the starting position. A retry to the player will be offered free of charge.
5. If the marble lands in one of the two smaller outer boxes, obtain a large prize of $6.00; if the
marble lands in larger middle box, obtain a smaller prize of $4.00.
6. Return the marble to the bag, and return the bag to its original location.
7. Next, spin the color-coded spinning wheel on the board. If the wheel lands on a 10, the value of
the prize is doubled; if the wheel lands on a 2, 3, 7, or 8, the value of the prize remains the same;
if the wheel lands on a 1, 4, 5, 6, or 9, the player loses his or her prize.
8. To play again, repeat step 1, then repeat steps 2-7.

Figure 2. Tree Diagram of the Marble Movements

There are 16 ways that the player can win a prize. The letter L indicates that the marble
moved left; the letter R indicates that the marble moved right. The large prizes, based on the
right view illustration in figure 1, can either be obtained by LLLL (going left all four times) or
RRRR (going right all four times). For the other marble movements, the marble will land on the
small prize box. This gives the large prize a 40% probability of being obtained, while it gives the
small prize a 60% chance of being obtained.

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Table 1
Theoretical Probability I
L = Marble Turns Left, R = Marble Turns Right, D = Prize Doubled, Y = Prize Stays the Same,
N = Prize is Lost
D
Y
N
Total
P(LLLLD)
P(LLLLY)
P(LLLLN)
4
4
LLLL = 0.5 0.1
= 0.5 0.4
= 0.54 0.5
= 0.00625
= 0.025
= 0.03125
Large
0.125
P(RRRRD)
P(RRRRY)
P(RRRRN)
RRRR = 0.54 0.1
= 0.54 0.4
= 0.54 0.5
= 0.00625
= 0.025
= 0.03125
P(LLLRD)
P(LLLRY)
P(LLLRN)
4
4
LLLR = 0.5 0.1
= 0.5 0.4
= 0.54 0.5
= 0.00625
= 0.025
= 0.03125
P(LLRLD)
P(LLRLY)
P(LLRLN)
LLRL = 0.54 0.1 = 0.54 0.4
= 0.54 0.5
= 0.00625
= 0.025
= 0.03125
P(LRLLD)
P(LRLLY)
P(LRLLN)
4
4
LRLL = 0.5 0.1
= 0.5 0.4
= 0.54 0.5
= 0.00625
= 0.025
= 0.03125
P(RLLLD)
P(RLLLY)
P(RLLLN)
Small
RLLL = 0.54 0.1
= 0.54 0.4
= 0.54 0.5
0.875
= 0.00625
= 0.025
= 0.03125
P(LLRRD)
P(LLRRY)
P(LLRRN)
4
4
LLRR = 0.5 0.1
= 0.5 0.4
= 0.54 0.5
= 0.00625
= 0.025
= 0.03125
P(RRLLD)
P(RRLLY)
P(RRLLN)
RRLL = 0.54 0.1
= 0.54 0.4
= 0.54 0.5
= 0.00625
= 0.025
= 0.03125
P(LRLRD)
P(LRLRY)
P(LRLRN)
4
4
LRLR = 0.5 0.1
= 0.5 0.4
= 0.54 0.5
= 0.00625
= 0.025
= 0.03125
L = Marble Turns Left, R = Marble Turns Right, D = Prize Doubled, Y = Prize Stays the Same,
N = Prize is Lost
D
Y
N
Total
Small
P(RLRLD)
P(RLRLY)
P(RLRLN)
0.875
RLRL = 0.54 0.1
= 0.54 0.4
= 0.54 0.5
= 0.00625
= 0.025
= 0.03125
P(RLLRD)
P(RLLRY)
P(RLLRN)
4
4
RLLR = 0.5 0.1
= 0.5 0.4
= 0.54 0.5
= 0.00625
= 0.025
= 0.03125
P(LRRLD)
P(LRRLY)
P(LRRLN)
LRRL = 0.54 0.1
= 0.54 0.4
= 0.54 0.5
= 0.00625
= 0.025
= 0.03125
RRRL P(RRRLD)
P(RRRLY)
P(RRRLN)

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= 0.54 0.1
= 0.54 0.4
= 0.54 0.5
= 0.00625
= 0.025
= 0.03125
P(RRLRD)
P(RRLRY)
P(RRLRN)
RRLR = 0.54 0.1
= 0.54 0.4
= 0.54 0.5
= 0.00625
= 0.025
= 0.03125
P(RLLRD)
P(RLLRY)
P(RLLRN)
4
4
RLLR = 0.5 0.1
= 0.5 0.4
= 0.54 0.5
= 0.00625
= 0.025
= 0.03125
P(LRRRD)
P(LRRRY)
P(LRRRN)
LRRR = 0.54 0.1
= 0.54 0.4
= 0.54 0.5
= 0.00625
= 0.025
= 0.03125
Total
0.1
0.4
0.5

The theoretical probabilities of playing Grow Your Roots can be calculated based on the
information on table 1. As mentioned in figure 2, there are 16 ways that the player can win a
small or large prize. Since any prize can be doubled, kept the same, or lost, there are 48 total
outcomes of playing the game. The probability of a winning a prize and doubling it, keeping it
the same, or losing it is first found by multiplying the probability of the marble moving left or
right to the fourth power; it is next multiplied by the probability of doubling, keeping, or losing
the prize with the spinning wheel. The probability of doubling a prize is 10% (0.1); the
probability of winning a regular prize is 40% (0.4), and the probability of losing a prize is 50%
(0.5). In terms of finding the probability given the marbles movements, the probability of
doubling a prize is 0.625% (0.00625); the probability of winning a regular prize is 2.5% (0.025);
the probability of losing a prize is 3.125% (0.03125). If one of the three probabilities--based on
specific movements--is multiplied by the number of ways a marble can roll towards the end of
the board, which in this case is 16, then the answer would result in the total probability of
doubling, keeping, or losing a prize.

E( x )= [ xP(x )]

Figure 3. Expected Value Equation

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In order to determine whether the player is expected to earn or lose money for each play,
the expected value needs to be calculated using the expected value formula displayed in figure 3.
Make x the winnings that the player receives, and P(x) the probability that the player will win
that amount.

E( x )= [ xP(x )+ xP(x)+ xP ( x)...+ xP( x)]

Figure 4. Extended Expected Value Equation

The expected value of playing Grow Your Roots can be found by multiplying the
winnings that the player receives by the probability that the player will win that amount.
However, since there are multiple results of playing the game, the expected value needs to be
extended: as seen in figure 4, x * P(x) is added by another value of x * P(x) (and so on) to find
the true expected value of playing the game. Now that the expected value formula (both regular
and extended) is known, it can be used to determine whether the player earns or loses money
playing the game.
Table 2
Theoretical Probability II: Expected Value
Doubled
Regular
Doubled Regular Small
x
Large Prize Large Prize Small Prize
Prize
Earnings
$9.00
$3.00
$5.00
$1.00
P(x)
0.0125
0.05
0.0875
0.35
Expected
0.1125
0.15
0.4375
0.35
Value

No
Prize
-$3.00
0.5
-1.5

Total
1
-0.45

Table 2 shows the expected values for the player per play. To find the expected value of
the carnival game, two values will be required for the calculations: the probabilities based in
table 1 and the prize earnings. Note that the cost factor has already been implemented into the
calculations, therefore all of the earnings have already been subtracted by $3.00. With P(doubled
large prize) being 0.0125, P(regular large prize) being 0.15, P(doubled small prize) being 0.4375,

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P(regular small prize) being 0.35, and P(no prize) being 0.50, the expected value is -0.45 when
the probabilities are added together. Therefore, the player is expected to lose $0.45 for per play.
Table 3
Simulation 1: Playing the Game
D
LLLL
LLLR
LLRL
LRLL
RLLL
LLRR
RRLL
LRLR
RLRL
RLLR
LRRL
RRRL
RRLR
RLLR
LRRR
RRRR
Total

Y
0
0
0
2
1
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
5

0
0
2
5
2
0
0
0
1
3
2
1
2
2
1
0
21

N
1
2
1
5
0
0
0
3
0
1
0
4
0
3
4
0
24

Table 3 shows the results of playing the game 50 times. Remember that the player must
not lose the prize in order to win the game. Out of the 50 games played, the player has won 26
times, given that a small prize has been won 49 times and then doubled 5 times or kept the same
21 times. For the only time that the player got the large prize, the prize ended up being lost. The
player has completed the carnival game with nothing (or lost) 24 times.
P(winning )=26 /50=0.52
P(losing)=24 /50=0. 48

Figure 5. Simulation 1: Relative Frequencies

The relative frequencies for winning and losing were found knowing that there were 50
outcomes of playing the game since the player has played the game 50 times. According to table
3, the player has won 26 times and lost 24 times. Since, again, there are 50 outcomes from the
player playing the game, the number of times that the player has either won or lost is divided by

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50. Relatively, the probability of winning is 52% (0.52), and the probability of losing is 48%
(0.48), as seen in figure 5. Using the relative frequencies for the carnival game, it can be used to
determine how much the player is expected to earn each play for the first simulation.
Table 4
Simulation 1: Expected Value
Doubled
Regular
Doubled Regular Small
x
Large Prize Large Prize Small Prize
Prize
Earnings
$9.00
$3.00
$5.00
$1.00
P(x)
0
0
0.1
0.42
Expected
0
0
0.5
0.42
Value

No
Prize
-$3.00
0.48

Total

-1.44

1
-0.52

The expected value for each play based on the results of the simulation from table 3 and
the relative frequencies from figure 4 can be found in table 4 by performing the same
calculations made in table 2. Since the player has not won any large prize playing the game, the
probability and expected value of winning a large prize, doubled or regular, is 0% (0). The player
won the doubled small prize 10% (0.1) of the time and the regular small prize 42% (0.42) of the
time. Knowing that there is only one way to lose and that it has been done 24 times, the
probability of winning nothing is 48% (0.48). By adding the resulting separated expected values
together, the player is expected to lose $0.52 for per play.

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Figure 6. Simulation 2: Design and Rules

The second simulation of Grow Your Roots was developed by applying the Monte Carlo
Method onto the spreadsheet of a TI-Nspire CX calculator (see figure 6). To determine whether
the player won a small or large prize, integers between 1 and 100 were generated in the first
column: since there is an approximately 13% probability (see table 1) that the large prize is won,
1-13 indicates that the player has won a large prize, whereas 14-100 indicates that the player has
won a small prize. On a second column, integers 1-10 are generated to determine whether the
player doubled, kept, or lost the prize. A player must refer to the rules of the game to determine
whether he has doubled, kept, or lost the prize. If a 1, 4, 5, 6, or 9 has been generated in the
second column, the trial is a failure (or a loss); all other second column integers are successes
(wins).

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Table 5
Simulation 2: Results from 500 Trials
Doubled
Regular
Doubled Regular Small
x
Large Prize Large Prize Small Prize
Prize
# of Times
8
28
44
196
Money
$72.00
$84.00
$220.00
$196.00
P(x)
0.016
0.056
0.088
0.392

No
Prize

Total

224
-$672.00

500
-$100.00

0.448

The second simulation of the carnival game requires taking 500 total trials. Of the 500
trials done by the player in table 5, he has won a doubled large prize 8 times, a regular large prize
28 times, a doubled small prize 44 times, a regular small prize 196 times, and nothing 224 times.
After playing the game 500 times, the player has lost $100.00 (this is not the expected value).
The relative frequency of winning a doubled large prize is 0.016; regular large prize is 0.056;
doubled large prize is 0.088; regular small prize is 0.392; no prize is 0.448.
P(winning)=276 /500=0.552
P(losing)=224 /500=0.448

Figure 7. Simulation 2: Relative Frequencies

Figure 7 shows how the relative frequencies for winning and losing were found for the
second simulation. There were 500 outcomes of playing the game since the player has played the
game 500 times. Since earning money from playing the game is considered a win, the player has
won 276 times out of the 500 games. Relatively, the probability of winning is 55.2% (0.552), and
the probability of losing is 44.8% (0.448). Using the relative frequencies for the carnival game, it
can be used to determine how much the player is expected to earn each play for the second
simulation.
Table 6
Simulation 2: Expected Value
Doubled
Regular
Doubled Regular Small
x
Large Prize Large Prize Small Prize
Prize
Earnings
$9.00
$3.00
$5.00
$1.00
P(x)
0.016
0.056
0.088
0.392

No
Prize
-$3.00
0.448

Total
1

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Expected
Value

0.144

0.168

0.44

0.392

-1.344

-0.2

Table 6 shows the expected values per play for the second simulation. Using the extended
expected value formula in figure 4, the expected values for the doubled large prize, regular large
prize, doubled small prize, regular small prize, and no prize are added together to get an expected
value of -0.20. This means that the player is expected to lose $0.20 per play.

Figure 8. Simulation 3: Java Program

According to the Java program in figure 8, out of the 5,000 trials in the third simulation,
the player won a doubled large prize 54 times, a regular large prize 225 times, a doubled small
prize 476 times, and a regular small prize 1,751 times. As a result, the player has won a total of
$5,292. On the other hand, he has lost a large prize 297 times and a small prize 2197 times. At
$3.00 per game, the player paid $15,000 to play 5,000 times. Therefore, the player has lost a total
of $9,708.
The program was created using a for loop and multiple if statements. In the for loop, the
numbers one and two were randomized four times. One represented a marble turning left, while
the two represented a marble turning right. Also, the numbers one through ten were randomized

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once, which represented the number a person would spin that determined what happened with
their prize. Then, if statements were formed based on winning a small or large prize and the spin.
If the permutations, matched a specific if statement, the program would add to the total number
of the variable.
Table 7
Simulation 3: Expected Value
Doubled
Regular
Doubled Regular Small
x
Large Prize Large Prize Small Prize
Prize
Earnings
$9.00
$3.00
$5.00
$1.00
P(x)
0.0108
0.045
0.0952
0.3502
Expected
0.0972
0.135
0.476
0.3502
Value

No
Prize
-$3.00
0.4988

Total

-1.4964

1
-0.438

Table 7 shows the expected values per play for the Java program simulation. The
expected values for the doubled large prize, regular large prize, doubled small prize, regular
small prize, and no prize are added together to get the expected value of -0.438. This means that
the player is expected to lose approximately $0.44 per play.
The three different simulations are representations of Grow Your Roots. The relative
frequencies for each simulation are approximately similar. However, as the number of trials
increased per simulation, the relative frequencies approached the theoretical probabilities. This
happens because of the Law of Large Numbers which states that as the number of trials
increase, the relative frequency will approach the theoretical probability.
Grow Your Roots seems like a very fair and worthwhile carnival game to the average eye.
Future players will believe that they have a great chance at winning a prize and maybe even
doubling it. The chance of doubling the prize makes it more addictive, exciting, and suspenseful
for the players. However, the probability of losing any profit made is 50%. For all three
simulations, the expected values were negative, meaning that the player will lose money by
playing this game over time. Choosing this game for a fundraiser would help to raise money in a

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discreet yet effective manner. Not only is the cost of the game ideal for both the players and the
operators, but a player is expected to lose at minimum $0.20 per play, based on the three
simulations of the game.
The name of the carnival game grew from the combined ideas of Red Encabo and
Jillian Estrope. The theme was heavily influenced by the mindset of tree branches, hence the
name of the carnival game. Despite extreme time constraints, the two partners were able to
collaborate with one another, fulfill their duties. and complete the assignment on time. Part of the
carnival game project that Red and Jillian collaborated on included the mathematical
calculations, the first simulation, setup and directions, and diagrams of the carnival game. Red
was accountable for the tree diagram, the entirety of the second simulation, the majority of the
anchoring, and the revision of Jillians calculations. On the other hand, Jillian was entirely
responsible for the construction of the physical game, the Java program for the third simulation,
the calculation of the theoretical probabilities and expected values, and the idea of the carnival
games name. The two partners would eventually work together to develop the rest of the paper.