Introducing Probability
Introducing Probability
Introducing Probability
The first page of the template of cards gives some events that are always likely
to be relevant but it can be made more interesting and promote more discussion
of some of them are replaced by current issues such as those on the second page.
Not all the cards have to be used. Groups or pairs of learners should be given a
set of cards and asked to decide which is the most likely to happen and which is
the least likely to happen. Choices are compared between the groups and each
group has to justify their decision. So long as they can then they are correct
there is no uniue right answer.
Then learners should be asked to order all their probabilities in order of
likelihood. This should provoke a lot of discussion as some have the same
probability. !ifferences between the groups can be discussed. "ather than looking
at numerical probabilities the discussion should focus on using the language of
probability eg eually likely and more likely. #gain some differences are
acceptable with justification.
$earners should then make up some events of their own to insert between the
events on their line. %t can be uite fun to use events that are characteristics of
the learners& behaviour 'without embarrassing them too much(() eg *+ate arrives
late&, *$ee gets his mobile phone out during the lesson&, *!an shouts out an answer&.
They can then discuss how likely these events are to happen and add them to the
ordered cards.
#s a follow up ask learners to give e-amples of.
/vents that are eually likely0
/vents that are very likely0
/vents that are not very likely etc
The ne-t stage could be allocating values to events.
p'Two people in
this room have their
birthday on the
same day of the
week this year)
p'Neighbours will
be taken off ne-t
month)
p'1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 will
win the lottery ne-t
Saturday)
p'43, 2, 17, 6, 23, 31
will win the lottery
ne-t Saturday)
p'The ne-t number
on my dice will be
a 6)
p'The ne-t number
on my dice will be
a 4)
p'8y coin will land
heads given that it
has landed 5 tails in
a row)
p'%t will rain
tomorrow)
p'Gordon 9rown will
be prime minister in
the year 2:11)
p'#ndrew 8urray
will win ;imbledon)
p'$iverpool will win
the /uropean cup)
p'#rsenal will win
the premiership)