Ilvfdo Srolf - Vxvwdlqdelolw - D Edvlf Iudphzrun
Ilvfdo Srolf - Vxvwdlqdelolw - D Edvlf Iudphzrun
Ilvfdo Srolf - Vxvwdlqdelolw - D Edvlf Iudphzrun
Huqhvwr Wdoyl FHUHV +Xuxjxd|, fhuhvCdglqhw1frp1x| Fduorv D1 Yjk XFOD dqg QEHU fyhjkCxfod1hgx
Ghfhpehu 4<<;
Devwudfw Wkh pdlq sxusrvh ri wklv sdshu lv wr surylgh d vlpsoh dqdo|wl0 fdo iudphzrun wkdw fdq jxlgh wkh ghyhorsphqw ri lqglfdwruv ri vfdo srolf| vxvwdlqdelolw| lq hfrqrplhv zklfk rshudwh lq d kljko| yrodwloh pdfurhfrqrplf hqylurqphqw1 Wr wklv hhfw/ wkh sdshu uvw od|v rxw wkh edvlf vfdo dffrxqwlqj iudphzrun dqg ghqhv d wuxh lqglfdwru ri vfdo vxvwdlqdelolw| +l1h1/ dq lqglfdwru ri lqwhuwhpsrudo vroyhqf|,1 Wr ehfrph rshudwlrqdo/ krzhyhu/ wklv lqglfdwru zrxog uhtxluh dq dprxqw ri lqirupdwlrq xvxdoo| qrw dydlodeoh wr srolf|pdnhuv1 Wkh sdshu wkhq surfhhgv wr vxjjhvwv wzr dowhuqdwlyh lqglfdwruv/ zklfk vxevwdqwldoo| uhgxfh wkh gdwd uhtxluhphqwv1 Wkh uvw rqh/ sursrvhg e| Eodqfkdug +4<<3,/ lv edvhg rq wkh wuxh lqglfdwru1 Wkh vhfrqg rqh lv edvhg rq d pdfur0dgmxvwhg ghflw/ zklfk lv ghqhg dv wkh ohyho ri wkh sulpdu| ghflw zklfk zrxog suhydlo xqghu qrupdo pdfurhfrqrplf frqglwlrqv1 Wkh sdshu wkhq glvfxvvhv wkh surv dqg frqv ri wkhvh lqgl0 fdwruv dqg vkrzv wkdw wkh| duh qhfhvvdu| exw qrw vx!flhqw wr dvvhvv vxvwdlqdelolw| ri vfdo srolf|1
Iruhzrug Wklv sdshu zdv zulwwhq dv d frqfhswxdo ryhuylhz ri wkh vl{ frxqwu| vwxglhv wkdw zhuh sduw ri wkh Uhjlrqdo Uhvhdufk Qhwzrun surmhfw rq Ilvfdo Vxvwdlq0 delolw| lq Odwlq Dphulfd/ vsrqvruhg e| wkh Lqwhu0Dphulfdq Ghyhorsphqw Edqn1 Wkh frxqwulhv lqfoxghg lq wkh surmhfw zhuh Dujhqwlqd/ Eud}lo/ Frorp0 eld/ Shux/ Xuxjxd|/ dqg Yhqh}xhod1 Wkh sxusrvh ri wkh surmhfw zdv wkuhhirog1 Iluvw/ wr ghyhors d qhz vhw ri vfdo lqglfdwruv xvhixo wr hydoxdwh vfdo vxvwdlqdelolw| lq yrodwloh hfrqrplhv1 Vhfrqg/ wr xvh wklv qhz vhw ri lqglfdwruv wr hydoxdwh erwk wkh uhfhqw vfdo klvwru| dqg wkh fxuuhqw vfdo vlwxdwlrq lq hdfk ri wkh vl{ frxqwulhv1 Wklug/ wr hydoxdwh wkh xvhixoqhvv ri wkhvh lqglfdwruv dv d wrro iru hfrqrplf srolf| ghflvlrq0pdnlqj1 Wkh vl{ frxqwu| vwxglhv/ zklfk kdyh ehhq sxeolvkhg lq wkh RFH Uhvhdufk Qhwzrun Zrunlqj Sdshu Vhulhv/ duh wkh iroorzlqj= Od vrvwhqlelolgdg gh od srowlfd vfdo hq Dpulfd Odwlqd= Ho fdvr dujhqwlqr/ U0648/ 4<<;1 Rvfdu Fhwudqjror/ Pdulr Gdploo/ Urehuwr Iuhqnho | Mxdq S1 Mlphqh} +FHGHV,1 Ghod|lqj Sxeolf Vhfwru Uhirupv= Srvw0Vwdelol}dwlrq Ilvfdo Vwudlqv lq Eud}lo/ U0654/ 4<<;1 Dirqvr V1 Ehylodtxd | Urjulr O1 I1 Zhuqhfn1 +SXF0ULR , Vrvwhqlelolgdg gh od srowlfd vfdo hq Dphulfd Odwlqd1 Ho fdvr gh Frorpeld/ U064</ 4<<;1 Mxolr Fvdu Dorqvr/ Pdxulflr Rolyhud/ Lvudho Idlqerlp \dnhu1 +IHGHVDUUROOR , Od vrvwhqlelolgdg gh od srowlfd vfdo hq ho Shu= 4<:305338/ U0649/ 4<<:1 Oxlv D1 Duldv/ Hophu Fxed | Udxo Vdod}du1 +PDFURFRQVXOW, Od vrvwhqlelolgdg gh od srowlfd vfdo hq Xuxjxd|/ U0653/ 4<<;1 Plfkdho Erufkdugw/ Lvdeho Uldo/ Dgroir Vduplhqwr1 +FHUHV, Od vrvwhqlelolgdg gh od srowlfd vfdo hq Yhqh}xhod U064:/ 4<<;1 Jxv0 wdyr Jdufld Rvlr/ Udidho Urguljxh} Edo}d/ Oxlv Pdufdqr/ Ulfdugr Shq0 irog/ Jxvwdyr Vdqfkh}1 +LHVD ,
Dv wkh surmhfw*v frruglqdwruv/ zh duh judwhixo wr Plfkdho Jdylq dqg Ul0 fdugr Kdxvpdqq zkr zhuh sduw ri wkh vhohfwlrq frpplwwhh/ sduwlflsdwhg lq wkh surmhfw vhplqduv khog lq Ph{lfr +Rfwrehu 4<<9, dqg Fdudfdv +Mxqh 4<<:,/ dqg uhylhzhg pdq| ri wkh frxqwu| vwxglhv1 Zh dovr wkdqn Udtxho Jrph} dqg Dohmdqgur Julvdqwl zkr surylghg ydoxdeoh dvvlvwdqfh dw ydulrxv vwdjhv ri wkh surmhfw1 Rxu juhdwhvw ghew lv wr Qruholv Ehqwdqfrxuw/ frruglqdwru ri wkh Uh0 jlrqdo Uhvhdufk Qhwzrun dw wkh R!fh ri wkh Fklhi Hfrqrplvw ri wkh LGE1 Zlwkrxw khu h{fhoohqw rujdql}dwlrqdo vnloov/ wklv surmhfw zrxog kdyh qrw ehhq srvvleoh1 Ilqdoo|/ zh wkdqn doo wkh dxwkruv ri frxqwu| vwxglhv iru wkhlu hruw dqg krsh wkdw wklv surmhfw zloo suryh ydoxdeoh qrw rqo| wr pdfurhfrqrplvwv lq wkh uhjlrq exw dovr wr dq|rqh lqwhuhvwhg lq sxeolf srolf| lq Odwlq Dphulfd1
Lqwurgxfwlrq
Fdq fxuuhqw vfdo srolflhv eh vxvwdlqhg iru wkh iruhvhhdeoh ixwxuhB Ru zloo wkh| ohdg wr d sdlqixo vfdo dgmxvwphqw lq wkh irup ri kljkhu wd{hv/ uhgxfhg sxeolf vshqglqj/ ru rxwuljkw ghidxowB Vxfk txhvwlrqv rq vfdo vxvwdlqdelolw| wdnh fhqwhu vwdjh lq pdfurhfrqrplf srolf| glvfxvvlrqv/ txlwh dsduw iurp wkh hhfwv ri vfdo srolf| rq uhvrxufh doorfdwlrq dqg djjuhjdwh ghpdqg1 Wkh ghvljq ri lqglfdwruv ri vfdo srolf| vxvwdlqdelolw| wkxv frqvwlwxwhv d nh| hqghdyru lq dssolhg hfrqrplf dqdo|vlv1 Wkh RHFG/ iru h{dpsoh/ kdv ghyrwhg frqvlghudeoh hruw wr frqvwuxfw dssursuldwh lqglfdwruv ri vfdo sro0 lf| vxvwdlqdelolw|1 Wkh RHFG kdv w|slfdoo| uholhg rq wkh f|folfdoo|0dgmxvwhg +ru ixoo0hpsor|phqw, ghflw wr dvvhvv dprqj rwkhu dvshfwv ri vfdo sro0 lf| wkh vxvwdlqdelolw| ri fxuuhqw vfdo srolflhv1 Uhfhqw zrun kdv irfxvhg rq lpsurylqj wkh xvhixoqhvv ri wkh f|folfdoo|0dgmxvwhg ghflw dv d vxvwdlq0 delolw| lqglfdwru e| pdnlqj khdylhu xvh ri iruhfdvwv dqg lqfrusrudwlqj rwkhu suhglfwdeoh fkdqjhv lq wkh exgjhw +vhh Eodqfkdug +4<<3,,1 Wkh ghvljq ri vxvwdlqdelolw| lqglfdwruv lv sduwlfxoduo| uhohydqw iru Odwlq Dphulfdq frxqwulhv dqg rwkhu ghyhorslqj frxqwulhv iru wkdw pdwwhu zklfk rshudwh lq d kljko| yrodwloh pdfurhfrqrplf hqylurqphqw1 Dv looxvwudwhg lq Wdeoh 4/ uhdo JGS jurzwk lq Odwlq Dphulfd lv wzlfh dv yrodwloh dv lq wkh RHFG/ zkloh sulydwh frqvxpswlrq dqg wkh uhdo h{fkdqjh udwh duh doprvw wkuhh wlphv dv yrodwloh1 Dv grfxphqwhg e| LGE +4<<8,/ wklv kljkhu ghjuhh ri yrodwlolw| kdv ehhq uh hfwhg lq orqjhu dqg ghhshu uhfhvvlrqv1 Gxulqj 4<:30 4<<5/ iru h{dpsoh/ wkh dyhudjh uhfhvvlrq lq Odwlq Dphulfd odvwhg iru qhduo| wzr |hduv +frpsduhg wr durxqg rqh |hdu iru wkh RHFG, dqg wkh fxpxodwlyh rxwsxw ghfolqh iurp shdn wr wurxjk zdv doprvw hljkw shufhqw +frpsduhg wr wzr shufhqw iru wkh RHFG,1 Ilvfdo djjuhjdwhv kdyh ehhq htxdoo| yrodwloh1 Dv vkrzq lq Wdeoh 4/ vfdo uhyhqxhv dqg h{shqglwxuhv kdyh ehhq durxqg wkuhh wlphv dv yrodwloh dv lq wkh RHFG/ zkloh wkh sulpdu| vxusoxv kdv ehhq pruh wkdq wzlfh dv yrodwloh1 Wkh kljk yrodwlolw| ri vfdo srolf| lv h{sodlqhg qrw rqo| e| wkh yrodwlolw| ri wkh xqghuo|lqj hfrqrplf hqylurqphqw dv uh hfwhg/ vd|/ lq whupv ri wudgh vkrfnv dqg xfwxdwlrqv lq lqwhuqdwlrqdo lqwhuhvw udwhv exw dovr e| wkh surf|folfdo qdwxuh ri vfdo srolf| lq Odwlq Dphulfd/ zklfk kdv h{dfhuedwhg wkh xqghuo|lqj yrodwlolw|1 Lqghhg/ Wdoyl dqg Yjk +4<<;, kdyh dujxhg wkdw/ xqolnh lq wkh J0: frxqwulhv/ vfdo srolf| lq ghyhorslqj frxqwulhv lq jhqhudo dqg Odwlq Dphulfd lq sduwlfxodu kdv whqghg wr eh h{sdqvlrqdu| lq jrrg wlphv dqg frqwudfwlrqdu| lq edg wlphv1 Iru lqvwdqfh/ wkh dyhudjh fruuhodwlrq 7
ehwzhhq +wkh f|folfdo frpsrqhqwv ri, jryhuqphqw frqvxpswlrq dqg JGS iru wkh 4<:304<<7 shulrg zdv 3186 iru Odwlq Dphulfdq frxqwulhv dqg 03135 iru wkh J0: frxqwulhv1 Lq vxfk d yrodwloh hqylurqphqw/ fxuuhqw jxuhv iru uhyhqxhv/ h{shqglwxuhv/ dqg wkh vfdo vxusoxv zloo frqyh| d udwkhu plvohdglqj slfwxuh ri wkh xqghuo|0 lqj vfdo vlwxdwlrq1 Frqvlghu/ iru h{dpsoh/ d whpsrudu| dssuhfldwlrq ri wkh uhdo h{fkdqjh udwh1 Lq d frxqwu| zlwk d odujh iruhljq ghew/ wkh uhdo dssuh0 fldwlrq pd| lpsuryh wkh fxuuhqw vfdo vlwxdwlrq e| uhgxflqj ghew vhuylfh lq whupv ri qrq0wudgdeoh jrrgv +l1h1/ lq whupv ri sxeolf vhfwru zdjhv,1 Lq frq0 wudvw/ lq dq hfrqrp| zkrvh pdlq vrxufh ri vfdo uhyhqxh lv d wudgdeoh jrrg vxfk dv rlo wkh uhdo dssuhfldwlrq pd| zhoo ghwhulrudwh vfdo dffrxqwv e| uhgxflqj uhyhqxhv lq whupv ri qrq0wudgdeoh jrrgv1 Khqfh/ lq wkh suhvhqfh ri odujh whpsrudu| xfwxdwlrqv lq wkh uhdo h{fkdqjh udwh/ d uhdglqj ri wkh vfdo vlwxdwlrq edvhg rq fxuuhqw vfdo lqglfdwruv pd| ohdg wr d vhyhuho| glv0 wruwhg dvvhvvphqw ri vfdo vxvwdlqdelolw|1 Wklv vxjjhvwv wkh qhhg wr ghyhors dowhuqdwlyh vfdo lqglfdwruv/ zklfk pd| surylgh d pruh uholdeoh slfwxuh ri wkh xqghuo|lqj vxvwdlqdelolw| ri fxuuhqw vfdo srolf|1 Lq wklv frqwh{w/ wkh pdlq sxusrvh ri wklv sdshu lv wr surylgh d vlpsoh dq0 do|wlfdo iudphzrun wkdw fdq jxlgh wkh ghyhorsphqw ri lqglfdwruv ri vfdo sro0 lf| vxvwdlqdelolw| lq yrodwloh hfrqrplhv dqg wkxv vhw wkh vwdjh iru wkh frxqwu| vwxglhv wkdw zhuh sduw ri wklv surmhfw1 Vhfwlrq 5 od|v rxw wkh edvlf vfdo df0 frxqwlqj iudphzrun1 Zlwklq wklv iudphzrun/ Vhfwlrq 6 ghqhv d vxvwdlqdeoh vfdo srolf| dv rqh zklfk hqvxuhv wkdw wkh jryhuqphqw lv lqwhuwhpsrudoo| vro0 yhqw1 Wklv ghqlwlrq lpsolhv d wuxh lqglfdwru ri vfdo vxvwdlqdelolw|/ zkrvh pdlq surshuwlhv duh dqdo|}hg lq Vhfwlrq 7 zlwk wkh khos ri vrph qxphulfdo h{dpsohv1 Wr ehfrph rshudwlrqdo/ krzhyhu/ wklv lqglfdwru zrxog uhtxluh xq0 uhdvrqdeoh dprxqwv ri lqirupdwlrq1 Khqfh/ Vhfwlrq 8 vxjjhvwv wzr dowhuqdwlyh lqglfdwruv/ zklfk vxevwdqwldoo| uhgxfh wkh gdwd uhtxluhphqwv1 Wkh uvw rqh/ sursrvhg e| Eodqfkdug +4<<3,/ lv edvhg rq wkh wuxh lqglfdwru1 Wkh vhf0 rqg rqh lv edvhg rq d pdfur0dgmxvwhg ghflw/ zklfk lv ghqhg dv wkh ohyho ri wkh sulpdu| ghflw zklfk zrxog suhydlo xqghu qrupdo pdfurhfrqrplf frqglwlrqv1 Vhfwlrq 9 h{whqgv wkh ghqlwlrq ri vxvwdlqdelolw| wr doorz iru wkh suhvhqfh ri fuhglw frqvwudlqwv1 Lw lv vkrzq wkdw wkh lqglfdwruv ri vxvwdlqdelolw| ghyhorshg lq wkh suhylrxv vhfwlrqv duh qhfhvvdu| exw qrw vx!flhqw wr dvvhvv vxvwdlqdelolw|1 Lq oljkw ri wkh frqfhswxdo iudphzrun/ Vhfwlrq : kljkoljkwv wkh
4
Iru dgglwlrqdo hylghqfh rq surf|folfdo vfdo srolf| lq Odwlq Dphulfd/ vhh Jdylq hw do +4<<9, dqg Jdylq dqg Shurwwl +4<<;,1
pdlq lvvxhv udlvhg e| wkh vl{ frxqwu| vwxglhv wkdw frqvwlwxwh wkh fruh ri wklv surmhfw1 Vhfwlrq ; frqfoxghv1
Wklv vhfwlrq xvhv edvlf vfdo dffrxqwlqj wr lqwurgxfh vrph uhohydqw frqfhswv/ zklfk zloo vhw wkh vwdjh iru wkh hqvxlqj glvfxvvlrq1 Frqvlghu wkh jryhuqphqw*v exgjhw frqvwudlqw lq qrplqdo whupv= | ' E n |3 n |3 | n C| ~| c +4,
zkhuh |3 ghqrwhv wkh vwrfn ri sxeolf ghew dw wkh hqg ri shulrg | / |3 lv wkh prqhwdu| edvh dw wkh hqg ri shulrg | / C| lv jryhuqphqw vshqglqj gxulqj shulrg |/ ~| duh wrwdo uhyhqxhv gxulqj shulrg |/ dqg lv wkh +frqvwdqw, qrplqdo lqwhuhvw udwh ehwzhhq shulrg | dqg |1 Gh dwlqj wkh rz frqvwudlqw +4, e| wkh sulfh ohyho/ | / zh rewdlq= 6|3 6| c +5, nZ zkhuh orzhu fdvh ohwwhuv ghqrwh uhdo yduldeohv/ wkh lq dwlrq udwh +dvvxphg frqvwdqw, lv ghqhg dv Z ' | *|3 / dqg wkh uhdo lqwhuhvw udwh lv ghqhg 6/ duh jlyhq e| dv o ' E n *E n Z 1 Uhyhqxhv iurp prqh| fuhdwlrq/ 5| 6 ' 6| 6|3 1 Li uhdo prqh| edodqfhv duh frqvwdqw ryhu wlph +dqg htxdo wr 5| Z Z 6n 6,/ wkhq 5| ' 6 n Z 1 Wkhuhiruh/ dv rqh zrxog h{shfw/ uhyhqxhv iurp prqh| Z 1 fuhdwlrq duh wkh surgxfw ri wkh wd{ edvh/ 6/ dqg wkh lq dwlrq wd{ udwh/ n Z Wkh odwwhu kdv wkh glphqvlrq ri d wd{ udwh vlqfh/ iru Z f/ wkh h{suhvvlrq Z nZ ydulhv ehwzhhq }hur dqg rqh1 Wr h{suhvv +5, lq whupv ri JGS/ glylgh doo whupv e| uhdo JGS lq shulrg | ++| , wr rewdlq= K| ' E n o K|3 n }| 5| n no 6c K| ' K|3 n } | 5 | 5 | +6, nw zkhuh d wlogd ghqrwhv yduldeohv h{suhvvhg dv d sursruwlrq ri JGS dqg w lv wkh +frqvwdqw, udwh ri JGS jurzwk1 Qrwlfh wkdw uhyhqxhv iurp prqh| fuhdwlrq dv d shufhqw ri JGS qrz lqfoxgh wkh uhvrxufhv wkdw dffuxh wr wkh jryhuqphqw |3 6 '6 | En6 dv d uhvxow ri hfrqrplf jurzwk> wkdw lv/ 5 | ZEnw Wr vhh wklv/
Iru rxu sxusrvhv/ wkh jryhuqphqw frpsulvhv erwk wkh vfdo dxwkrulw| dqg wkh prqhwdu| dxwkrulw|1
5
qrwh wkdw li Z ' f dqg uhdo prqh| edodqfhv/ 6 | / duh frqvwdqw ryhu wlph/ wkhq w uhyhqxhv iurp prqh| fuhdwlrq froodsvh wr nw 6 1 Zh qrz lqwurgxfh vrph edvlf ghqlwlrqv1 Wkh uhdo sulpdu| ghflw dv d | / lv ghqhg dv sursruwlrq ri JGS/ _ | } _ | 5 | +7,
Wkh +hfrqrplfdoo| uhohydqw ghqlwlrq ri wkh, rshudwlrqdo ghflw dv d sursru0 J / frpsulvhv wkh sulpdu| ghflw soxv uhdo lqwhuhvw sd|phqwv rq wlrq ri JGS/ _ | sxeolf ghew +erwk dv d sursruwlrq ri JGS,> wkdw lv=
6
J o w | _ K|3 n _ | nw
+8,
Zlwk wkhvh ghqlwlrqv/ dqg xvlqj +6,/ wkh fkdqjh lq wkh vwrfn ri ghew fdq eh h{suhvvhg dv
6 J 5 K| ' _ +9, | | Wkh vwrfn ri qhw ghew/ dv d shufhqw ri JGS/ zloo eh jurzlqj ryhu wlph li wkh rshudwlrqdo ghflw h{fhhgv uhyhqxhv iurp prqh| fuhdwlrq1 Lq wklv frqwh{w/ lw lv zruwk srlqwlqj rxw wkdw/ dv frpprqo| phdvxuhg/ wkh vfdo ghflw glhuv iurp wkh rshudwlrqdo ghflw ghqhg deryh/ zklfk lv wkh hfrqrplfdoo| uhohydqw phdvxuh1 Wr vhh wklv/ ohw xv ljqruh uhyhqxhv iurp prqh| fuhdwlrq/ dqg uhzulwh +4, dv
K|n | |3 ' |3 n C| ~| +:,
Lq sudfwlfh/ wkh vfdo ghflw lv frpsxwhg e| gh dwlqj htxdwlrq +:, e| qrplqdo JGS/ | +|/ wr rewdlq= | ru/ htxlydohqwo|/ |
6
+;,
+<,
Lq sudfwlfh/ wkh rshudwlrqdo ghflw lv w|slfdoo| frpsxwhg ljqrulqj wkh lpsdfw ri jurzwk1 Krzhyhu/ wkh hhfw ri jurzwk vkrxog eh wdnhq lqwr dffrxqw vlqfh wkh uhohydqw phdvxuh ri ghew lv dv d sursruwlrq ri JGS1 Ri frxuvh/ li wkh udwh ri jurzwk lv }hur +l1h1/ @ 3,/ erwk phdvxuhv frlqflgh1
Wkh uljkw0kdqg vlgh ri htxdwlrq +<, lv wkxv wkh vfdo ghflw/ dv riwhq phdvxuhg lq sudfwlfh1 Wr vhh krz lw glhuv iurp wkh rshudwlrqdo ghflw/ dv ghqhg lq htxdwlrq +8,/ vxevwudfw +8, iurp +<, wr rewdlq +dvvxplqj/ iru vlpsolflw|/ wkdw w ' f, |3 J ' Z _ +43, | n Z K|3 |+| Lw iroorzv wkdw/ zkhqhyhu Z : fc wkh phdvxuhg ghflw ryhuhvwlpdwhv wkh rshu0 Z dwlrqdo ghflw e| wkh whup n Z K|31 Wkh uhdvrq lv wkdw wkh odwwhu uhsuhvhqwv dq dpruwl}dwlrq ri rxwvwdqglqj ghew/ zklfk frpshqvdwhv jryhuqphqw ghew kroghuv iru wkh hurvlrq lq wkh uhdo ydoxh ri jryhuqphqw ghew gxh wr lq dwlrq1 Fohduo|/ wklv vkrxog qrw eh frpsxwhg dv sduw ri wkh ghflw1 |
7
Kdylqj uhylhzhg wkh edvlf vfdo dffrxqwlqj/ zh surfhhg wr ghqh wkh frqfhsw ri vfdo srolf| vxvwdlqdelolw| dqg ghulyh dq lqglfdwru zklfk uhqghuv wklv gh0 qlwlrq rshudwlrqdo1 Zh uvw frpsxwh wkh lqwhuwhpsrudo exgjhw frqvwudlqw iru wkh jryhuqphqw1 Wr wklv hhfw/ vxssrvh wkdw wkh fxuuhqw shulrg lv sh0 ulrg | dqg uhzulwh htxdwlrq +6, iru shulrg | n / vroyh iru K|/ dqg vxevwlwxwh wkh uhvxowlqj h{suhvvlrq lqwr +6, wr rewdlq K|n dv d ixqfwlrq ri shulrg | n dqg shulrg | yduldeohv dqg wkh lqlwldo vwrfn ri ghew/ K|3 Uhshdwlqj wkh vdph surfhgxuh/ zh fdq h{suhvv K|n? dv
1
nw no
$?
$r
|nr E_
6 5 | nr
+44,
?*4 <"
nw no
$?
K|n? ' f
+45,
Xqghu wkh dvvxpswlrq wkdw o : w +zklfk hqvxuhv wkdw wkh glvfrxqw idfwru/ nw no / lv ohvv wkdq rqh,/ frqglwlrq +45, vd|v wkdw jryhuqphqw ghew pxvw eh htxdo wr }hur lq d suhvhqw ydoxh vhqvh1 Wklv lpsolhv wkdw/ xowlpdwho|/ jryhuqphqw
8
Vhh/ iru lqvwdqfh/ Vlhjho +4<:<,1 Vwulfwo| vshdnlqj/ iru vroyhqf| wr eh vdwlvhg/ htxdwlrq +45, vkrxog krog dv d zhdn lqhtxdolw| +wkdw lv/ wkh ohiw0kdqg vlgh vkrxog eh ohvv ru htxdo wkdq }hur,1 Wklv zrxog lpso|/ krzhyhu/ wkdw wkh jryhuqphqw lv qrw xvlqj doo dydlodeoh vfdo uhvrxufhv1
8
ghew dv d sursruwlrq ri JGS fdqqrw jurzwk dw d udwh kljkhu wkdq wkh hhfwlyh no uhdo lqwhuhvw udwh rq jryhuqphqw ghew/ jlyhq e| n w Iru d odujh ?/ dqg lpsrvlqj wkh vroyhqf| frqglwlrq +45,/ htxdwlrq +44, pd| eh uhzulwwhq dv K|3 '
[
" # n w $rn
no
r'f
6 E 5| nr
|nr _
+46,
Htxdwlrq +46, wkxv vd|v wkdw wkh suhvhqw glvfrxqwhg ydoxh ri qhw uhyhqxhv/ jlyhq e| wkh uljkw0kdqg vlgh/ pxvw htxdo wkh lqlwldo vwrfn ri jryhuqphqw ghew1 6 j zklfk vdwlvhv D vxvwdlqdeoh vfdo srolf| lv wkxv d sdwk ri i} |/ 5 |/ 5 | htxdwlrq +46,1 Wr ghulyh dq lqglfdwru zklfk pdnhv wklv ghqlwlrq rshudwlrqdo/ W / dv wkh frqvwdqw ohyho ri ohw xv uvw ghqh wkh shupdqhqw sulpdu| ghflw/ _ | wkh sulpdu| ghflw zkrvh suhvhqw glvfrxqwhg ydoxh dv ri shulrg | lv htxdo wr wkh suhvhqw glvfrxqwhg ydoxh ri wkh sdwk ri dfwxdo sulpdu| ghflwv=
9
"
r'f
nw no
$r
W ' _ |
" # n w $r
no
$rn
r'f
|nr 1 _
+47,
W ' o _ |
" nw w[ n w r'f n o
#
|nr1 _
+48,
o w K|3 c nw
+49,
zklfk vd|v wkdw/ li vfdo srolf| lv vxvwdlqdeoh/ wkh shupdqhqw sulpdu| vxusoxv W, pxvw htxdo wkh hhfwlyh uhdo lqwhuhvw sd|phqwv rq wkh lqlwldo vwrfn ri + _ | jryhuqphqw ghew1 Wkh wuxh lqglfdwru ri vfdo vxvwdlqdelolw|/ U|W/ pd| qrz eh ghqhg dv U|W
#
p @ 31 Dowhuqdwlyho|/ rqh Wr vlpsoli| wkh suhvhqwdwlrq/ zh dvvxph khqfhiruwk wkdw } w fdq wklqn ri wkh sulpdu| ghflw dv lqfoxglqj uhyhqxhv iurp prqh| fuhdwlrq1
9
Li U|W ' f/ vfdo srolf| dv ri shulrg | lv vxvwdlqdeoh1 Li U|W : f/ wkhq wkh sodqqhg +l1h1/ h{0dqwh, sdwk ri i} | / 5 |j ylrodwhv wkh lqwhuwhpsrudo exgjhw frqvwudlqw
o w W K|3 n _ | nw
+4:,
<
ehfdxvh wkh sodqqhg xvh ri qhw uhvrxufhv lv srvlwlyh1 Li U|W f/ wkhq wkh sodqqhg sdwk ri i} | / 5 | j grhv qrw ylrodwh wkh lqwhuwhpsrudo exgjhw frqvwudlqw dqg lv wkhuhiruh vxvwdlqdeoh1 Lq wklv fdvh/ krzhyhu/ wkh jryhuqphqw lv xqghu0 xwlol}lqj uhvrxufhv +l1h1/ lw lv hlwkhu vshqglqj wrr olwwoh ru wd{lqj wrr pxfk,1 Lw lv zruwk vwuhvvlqj wkdw U|W lv dq h{0dqwh frqfhsw1 Ri frxuvh/ h{0srvw/ wkh lqwhuwhpsrudo exgjhw frqvwudlqw +46, pxvw krog vlqfh fuhglw pdunhwv zloo qrw eh zloolqj wr nhhs ohqglqj wr d jryhuqphqw zklfk lv vshqglqj eh|rqg lwv uhvrxufhv +lq d suhvhqw glvfrxqwhg ydoxh vhqvh,1 Khqfh/ vrphwklqj zloo qhhg wr rffxu dq xqsodqqhg +dv ri shulrg |, uhgxfwlrq lq jryhuqphqw vshqglqj/ lqfuhdvh lq wd{hv ru lq dwlrq/ ru rxwuljkw ghidxow wr hqvxuh wkdw wkh lqwhuwhpsrudo exgjhw frqvwudlqw lv vdwlvhg h{0srvw1
dv wkh ixwxuh sdwk ri jryhuqphqw vshqglqj dqg uhyhqxhv zklfk lv vlpso| qrw dydlodeoh wr srolf|pdnhuv1 Ehiruh wdfnolqj wklv sureohp lq Vhfwlrq 8/ dqg lq rughu wr jdlq lqvljkwv lqwr wkh surshuwlhv ri U|W / lw vkdoo suryh xvhixo wr frqvwuxfw h{dpsohv zklfk zloo dvvxph wkdw srolf|pdnhuv kdyh dw wkhlu glvsrvdo doo wkh uhtxluhg lqirupdwlrq1 H{dpsoh 4 Zh ehjlq zlwk dq h{dpsoh lq zklfk vfdo srolf| lv vxvwdlqdeoh> wkdw lv/ U|W ' f iru doo |1 Dvvxph wkdw o ' ffD/ w ' f/ Z ' f/ dqg K3 ' f2S1 Lq dgglwlrq/ wkh sdwk ri } | lv frqvwdqw ryhu wlph dqg jlyhq e| } | ' fc Uhyhqxhv/ 5 | / duh jlyhq e| 5 | ' fD n ff t?E|c | f +4<, | f +4;,
Wkh wuxh lqglfdwru ri vxvwdlqdelolw|= qx0 phulfdo h{dpsohv Lq sudfwlfh/ frpsxwlqj U|W zrxog uhtxluh dq dprxqw ri lqirupdwlrq vxfk
Wklv irupxodwlrq lv lqwhqghg wr fdswxuh f|folfdo yduldwlrqv lq wd{ uhyhqxhv/ gxh wr wkh xqghuo|lqj exvlqhvv f|foh1 Pruh vshflfdoo|/ zh kdyh lq plqg vlwxdwlrqv lq zklfk wkh uhohydqw wd{ edvh +w|slfdoo| lqfrph ru frqvxpswlrq, xfwxdwhv ryhu wkh exvlqhvv f|foh/ wkxv lqgxflqj fruuhvsrqglqj xfwxdwlrqv lq wd{ uhyhqxhv1 Dv looxvwudwhg lq Iljxuh 4/ Sdqho D/ wd{ uhyhqxhv dw | ' f duh 6418 shufhqw ri JGS/ uhdfk d shdn ri 6718 shufhqw ri JGS diwhu wzr |hduv/ 43
dqg wkhq ghfolqh xqwlo uhdfklqj d wurxjk ri 5;18 shufhqw ri JGS dw | ' D1 Wkh frpsohwh f|foh odvwv vl{ |hduv1 Wkh sdwk ri wkh sulpdu| ghflw lv wkxv jlyhq e|
:
| } | _
5 | '
ffD
ff t?E|
+53,
Iljxuh 4/ Sdqho E looxvwudwhv U|W dqg lwv wzr frpsrqhqwv= wkh shupdqhqw W, dqg ghew vhuylfh +o sulpdu| ghflw +_ K|3,1 E| frqvwuxfwlrq/ U|W ' f iru doo | | lqglfdwlqj wkdw vfdo srolf| lv dozd|v vxvwdlqdeoh1 Qrwlfh/ krzhyhu/ wkdw lwv frpsrqhqwv duh qrw frqvwdqw ryhu wlph1 Gxulqj shulrgv ri kljk +orz, uhyhqxhv/ ghew vhuylfh idoov +lqfuhdvhv, uh hfwlqj wkh idfw wkdw ghew lv ehlqj uhwluhg +lvvxhg,1 Vlqfh U|W lv dozd|v }hur/ wklv lpsolhv wkdw wkh shupdqhqw sulpdu| ghflw pryhv lq rssrvlwh gluhfwlrq wr wkh ghew vhuylfh/ lqfuhdvlqj lq shulrgv ri kljk uhyhqxhv dqg ylfhyhuvd1 Wkh lqwxlwlrq lv vlpso| wkdw uhwlulqj ghew dqg lqfuhdvlqj wkh shupdqhqw sulpdu| ghflw duh wzr dowhuqdwlyh xvhv ri uhvrxufhv +lq d suhvhqw glvfrxqwhg ydoxh vhqvh,1 Khqfh/ wkh| pxvw pryh lq rssrvlwh gluhfwlrqv li wkh vroyhqf| frqvwudlqw lv wr eh vdwlvhg dw doo srlqwv lq wlph1 Frqvlghu qrz d frpprqo|0xvhg lqglfdwru ri vxvwdlqdelolw| +wkh rshud0 wlrqdo ghflw/ dv ghqhg lq +8,,/ zklfk zh zloo uhihu wr dv wkh vwdqgdug vxv0 wdlqdelolw| lqglfdwru dqg ghqrwh e| U| 1 Lw lv fdofxodwhg dv +uhfdoo wkdw/ lq wklv h{dpsoh/ w ' f, | K|3 n _ U| o
+54,
Qrwlfh wkdw/ lq frqwudvw wr U|W/ U| lv frpsxwhg zlwk wkh dfwxdo/ udwkhu wkdq wkh shupdqhqw/ sulpdu| ghflw1 Iljxuh 4/ Sdqho F sorwv wkh sdwkv ri U|W dqg U| 1 Zkloh U|W lv dozd|v }hur/ U| xfwxdwhv ehwzhhq srvlwlyh dqg qhjdwlyh ydoxhv/ uh hfwlqj wkh f|folfdo ydul0 dwlrqv lq erwk vfdo uhyhqxhv dqg jryhuqphqw ghew1 Wkh vwdqgdug vxvwdlq0 delolw| lqglfdwru/ U|/ zrxog wkxv +zurqjo|, vxjjhvw wkdw vfdo srolf| vzlwfkhv edfn dqg iruwk iurp xqvxvwdlqdeoh wr vxvwdlqdeoh/ zkhq lq idfw lw lv dozd|v vxvwdlqdeoh1 Wkh plvohdglqj slfwxuh wkdw iroorzv iurp xvlqj wkh dfwxdo/ udwkhu
Qdwxudoo|/ wkhvh duh glvfuhwh dssur{lpdwlrqv wr wkh wuxh shdn dqg wurxjk/ zklfk rffxu dw w @ 4=8: dqg w @ 7=:4/ uhvshfwlyho|1
:
+55,
44
wkdq wkh shupdqhqw/ sulpdu| ghflw lq frpsxwlqj U| looxvwudwhv wkh lpsru0 wdqfh ri frqvwuxfwlqj d ehwwhu sur{| iru wkh shupdqhqw ghflw1 Wklv zloo eh wkh vxemhfw ri Vhfwlrq 81 H{dpsoh 5 Zh zloo qrz looxvwudwh d vlwxdwlrq lq zklfk vfdo srolf| lv xqvxvwdlqdeoh dv ri shulrg f rqzdugv/ zklfk zloo uhtxluh d vfdo dgmxvwphqw dw vrph srlqw lq wkh ixwxuh1 Wkh rqo| fkdqjh zlwk uhvshfw wr wkh suhylrxv h{dpsoh lv wkdw wkh sdwk ri } | lv qrz jlyhq e|
;
} | '
f2c f2H2c
f | c |
+56,
Iru } | ' f2/ vfdo srolf| lv xqvxvwdlqdeoh dv ri shulrg f rqzdugv1 Wkh vfdo xqvxvwdlqdelolw| zloo eh fruuhfwhg dw | ' / zkhq jryhuqphqw vshqglqj lv uhgxfhg wr 315;51 Wklv ohyho hqvxuhv wkdw/ iurp | ' rqzdugv/ vfdo srolf| lv vxvwdlqdeoh1 Iljxuh 4/ Sdqho G sorwv wkh sdwkv ri U|W dqg U| 1 Qrwlfh wkdw U|W dw | ' f lv 5 shufhqw ri JGS/ lqglfdwlqj wkdw fxuuhqw vfdo srolflhv duh xqvxvwdlqdeoh1 Lqwhuhvwlqjo|/ wkh ydoxh ri U|W kdv d vwudljkwiruzdug dqg xvhixo lqwhusuhwdwlrq= lw phdvxuhv wkh vfdo dgmxvwphqw wkdw zrxog eh uhtxluhg wr pdnh vfdo srolf| W ' ff2 vljqdov wkdw d vxvwdlqdeoh dw wlph |1 Iru lqvwdqfh/ wkh idfw wkdw Uf vfdo dgmxvwphqw ri 5 shufhqw ri JGS zrxog eh qhhghg dw | ' f wr pdnh vfdo srolf| vxvwdlqdeoh1 Pruhryhu/ U|W lqfuhdvhv ryhu wlph/ lqglfdwlqj wkdw wkh vfdo dgmxvwphqw wkdw zrxog eh qhhghg wr uhyhuw wr d vxvwdlqdeoh sdwk lv odujhu wkh orqjhu wkh qhfhvvdu| dgmxvwphqw lv ghod|hg1 Lqwxlwlyho|/ wkh orqjhu jryhuqphqw h{shqglwxuhv uhpdlq deryh wkh ohyho wkdw fdq eh qdqfhg zlwk sodqqhg vfdo uhyhqxhv/ wkh pruh gudvwlf wkh dgmxvwphqw qhhghg wr eulqj jryhuqphqw vshqglqj lq olqh zlwk sodqqhg uhyhqxhv1 Iru lqvwdqfh/ dw | ' 2/ wkh uhtxluhg uhgxfwlrq lq jryhuqphqw vshqglqj lv 619 shufhqw ri JGS/ zklfk lv doprvw wzlfh dv pxfk dv wkh dgmxvwphqw wkdw zrxog kdyh ehhq uhtxluhg dw | ' f1 Wkh h{dpsoh dvvxphv wkdw wkh dgmxvwphqw lv hhfwhg dw | ' / zkhq wkh uhtxluhg dgmxvwphqw lv 61; ri JGS+' f2 f2H2,1 Iljxuh 4/ Sdqho G vkrzv krz dw wkdw srlqw U|W idoov wr }hur/ lqglfdwlqj wkdw vfdo srolf| lv vxvwdlqdeoh khqfhiruwk1 Dv lq wkh suhylrxv h{dpsoh/ U| xfwxdwhv durxqg U|W / exw qrz h{klelwv wkh vdph xszdug wuhqg dv U|W1 Rqfh djdlq/ uho|lqj rq U| wr dvvhvv hlwkhu wkh vxvwdlqdelolw| ri vfdo srolf| ru wkh pdjqlwxgh ri wkh dgmxvwphqw qhhghg wr
;
45
uhyhuw wr d vxvwdlqdeoh sdwk zrxog frqyh| d udwkhu plvohdglqj slfwxuh1 Iru h{dpsoh/ dv idu rxw dv | ' H zkhq U|W kdv ehhq dvklqj d uhg oljkw iru txlwh vrph wlph wkh vwdqgdug vxvwdlqdelolw| lqglfdwru/ U| / zrxog vxjjhvw wkdw wkh vfdo vlwxdwlrq lv xqghu frqwuro dqg qr dgmxvwphqw lv qhfhvvdu|1 Dw wkh rwkhu h{wuhph/ dw lwv shdn dw | ' / U | zrxog lqglfdwh wkdw wkh qhfhvvdu| dgmxvwphqw lv 916 shufhqw ri JGS zkhq/ lq uhdolw|/ wkh uhtxluhg dgmxvwphqw W ' ffe,1 Diwhu wkh dgmxvwphqw/ U| lv rqo| 617 shufhqw ri JGS +l1h1/ U W frqwlqxhv wr xfwxdwh durxqg U| +zklfk lv qrz }hur,/ dv lq H{dpsoh 41 Wklv h{dpsoh wkxv uhlqirufhv wkh qhhg wr frqvwuxfw d pruh dffxudwh sur{| iru U|W1
Iurp d sudfwlfdo srlqw ri ylhz/ lw zrxog eh vlpso| qrw ihdvleoh wr frqvwuxfw U|W/ vlqfh rqh zrxog qhhg olwhudoo| doo wkh ixwxuh sdwk ri jryhuqphqw vshqglqj W1 Wr rewdlq dq dqg uhyhqxhv wr frpsxwh wkh shupdqhqw sulpdu| ghflw/ _ | dffxudwh uhdglqj ri wkh vfdo vlwxdwlrq/ krzhyhu/ wkhuh vhhpv wr eh olwwoh fkrlfh exw wr frph xs zlwk d sur{| iru U|W zklfk lv qrw wrr ghpdqglqj lq whupv ri gdwd1 Wklv vhfwlrq zloo glvfxvv wzr vxfk lqglfdwruv1 Zh uvw uhylhz dq lqglfdwru vxjjhvwhg e| Eodqfkdug +4<<3, dqg wkhq sursrvh dq dowhuqdwlyh rqh1
814
Lq rughu wr jhw durxqg wkh gdwd uhtxluhphqwv/ Eodqfkdug +4<<3, hvvhqwldoo| vxjjhvwv sur{|lqj wkh shupdqhqw sulpdu| ghflw/ jlyhq e| +48,/ zlwk dq , edvhg rq d qlwh qxpehu ri shulrgv1 dssur{lpdwlrq +wr eh ghqrwhg e| _ | vdwlvi| Irupdoo|/ ohw _ |
? [
= Vroylqj iru _ |
#
r'f
nw no
$r
' _ |
? [ r'f
nw no
$r
|nr 1 _
+57,
' o _ | nw
<
$5 w 7
$?n 6 ? # $ [ n w rn nw |nr 8 _
no
r'f n o
+58,
Lw lv zruwk qrwlqj wkdw wkhuh kdv ehhq vrph hfrqrphwulf zrun dlphg dw whvwlqj gluhfwo| wkh jryhuqphqw*v lqwhuwhpsrudo frqvwudlqw> vhh/ iru h{dpsoh/ Fruvhwwl dqg Urxelql +4<<4,1
46
Dv vxjjhvwhg e| Eodqfkdug +4<<3,/ li o w dqg ? duh qrw wrr odujh/ wkh uljkw0 kdqg vlgh ri wkh odvw htxdwlrq pd| eh dssur{lpdwhg e| wkh vlpsoh dyhudjh ryhu wkh uhohydqw shulrg1 Khqfh/ ?n Eodqfkdug*v +4<<3, lqglfdwru ri vfdo vxvwdlqdelolw| lw wkxv ghqhg dv o w U| K|3 n _ | nw
# $
_ |
S?
|nr r'f _
+59,
43
+5:,
Dv wr wkh ydoxh ri ? wr eh xvhg lq sudfwlfh/ Eodqfkdug +4<<3, vxjjhvwv wkdw lw vkrxog eh wkdw wlph krul}rq iru zklfk surmhfwlrqv duh dydlodeoh +w|slfdoo| 6 |hduv iru RHFG frxqwulhv,1 Wr looxvwudwh wkh ehkdylru ri Eodqfkdug*v lqglfdwru/ zh uhwxuq wr h{dpsoh 4 ri wkh suhylrxv vhfwlrq1 Zh wdnh ? ' 2 +zklfk lpsolhv wkdw zh wdnh dq dyhudjh ryhu wkuhh shulrgv, dqg/ iru frqvlvwhqf|/ dvvxph wkdw srolf|pdnhuv nqrz wkh dfwxdo ydoxhv ri wkh sulpdu| ghflw ryhu wklv krul}rq1 Iljxuh 5/ Sdqho D sorwv Eodqfkdug*v lqglfdwru/ U| / dorqjvlgh wkh wuxh lqglfdwru/ U|W/ dqg wkh vwdqgdug lqglfdwru/ U| 1 Zkloh U| xfwxdwhv durxqg wkh wuxh lqglfdwru/ lwv xfwxdwlrqv duh vpdoohu wkdq wkrvh ri U| 1 Wklv vxjjhvwv wkdw U| lv d ehwwhu lqglfdwru wkdq wkh vwdqgdug rqh1 Lqghhg/ iru wklv h{dpsoh/ wkh phdq vtxduhg huuru iru U| lv vpdoohu wkdq wkdw iru U| 1
44
815
Dv glvfxvvhg deryh/ Eodqfkdug*v lqglfdwru uhgxfhv lqirupdwlrqdo uhtxluh0 phqwv e| xvlqj surmhfwlrqv ryhu d vkruw0whup krul}rq1 Zh qrz surfhhg wr frqvwuxfw dq dowhuqdwlyh lqglfdwru ri vfdo vxvwdlqdelolw|/ zklfk uhgxfhv lqirupdwlrqdo uhtxluhphqwv e| sxwwlqj vrph frqfhswxdo vwuxfwxuh lqwr wkh fxuuhqw iudphzrun/ zklfk xs wr qrz kdv frqvlvwhg rqo| ri vlpsoh lqwhuwhp0 srudo vfdo dffrxqwlqj1 Iru wklv sxusrvh/ zh uvw lqwurgxfh wkh frqfhsw ri ,1 Wkh pdfur0dgmxvwhg ghflw lv gh0 wkh pdfur0dgmxvwhg sulpdu| ghflw +_ | qhg dv wkh ohyho ri wkh sulpdu| ghflw wkdw zrxog suhydlo xqghu qrupdo pdfurhfrqrplf frqglwlrqv1
Eodqfkdug +4<<3, dfwxdoo| ghqhv wkh vxvwdlqdelolw| lqglfdwru lq whupv ri wd{ uhyhqxhv/ udwkhu wkdq ghflwv1 Qdwxudoo|/ wkh wzr irupxodwlrqv duh lghqwlfdo1 44 Ri frxuvh/ lq sudfwlfh wkhuh zloo eh surmhfwlrq huuruv lq frpsxwlqj Eodqfkdug*v lqgl0 fdwru/ zklfk duh dvvxphg dzd| lq wklv h{dpsoh1
43
47
Wklv ghqlwlrq lv sxusrvho| qrw vshflf dv wr zkdw h{dfwo| zh phdq e| qrupdo pdfurhfrqrplf frqglwlrqv1 Wkh uhdvrq lv wkdw qrupdo pdfurhfr0 qrplf frqglwlrqv duh olnho| wr glhu iurp frxqwu| wr frxqwu| ghshqglqj rq wkh pdfurhfrqrplf yduldeohv zklfk dhfw vfdo uhyhqxhv dqg h{shqglwxuhv1 Iru h{dpsoh/ iru pdq| |hduv/ lqgxvwuldo frxqwulhv kdyh ehhq frpsxwlqj wkh f|folfdoo|0dgmxvwhg +ru ixoo hpsor|phqw, exgjhw ghflw/ orrvho| ghqhg dv wkh ghflw zklfk zrxog suhydlo li wkh xqhpsor|phqw udwh zdv dw lwv qdwx0 udo ohyho1 Lpsolflw lq wklv fdofxodwlrq lv wkh dvvxpswlrq wkdw qrupdo wlphv vkrxog eh ghqhg e| wkh qdwxudo udwh ri xqhpsor|phqw1 Xqghu wklv ghql0 wlrq ri qrupdo wlphv/ wkh pdfur0dgmxvwhg ghflw zrxog frlqflgh zlwk wkh f|folfdoo|0dgmxvwhg ru ixoo0hpsor|phqw exgjhw ghflw1 Lq frqwudvw/ frqvlghu d frxqwu| olnh Dujhqwlqd ru Xuxjxd| zkhuh wkh pdlq vrxufh ri uhyhqxhv duh frqvxpswlrq wd{hv1 Lq wklv fdvh/ vkrfnv wr frqvxpswlrq +dv d uhvxow/ iru h{dpsoh/ ri d whpsrudu| idoo lq zruog lqwhu0 hvw udwhv, zloo kdyh d odujh lpsdfw rq vfdo uhyhqxhv/ zkloh srvvleo| ohdylqj odujho| xqdhfwhg wkh xqhpsor|phqw udwh1 Lq wklv fdvh/ lw zrxog pdnh olwwoh vhqvh/ iru vfdo sxusrvhv/ wr ghqh qrupdo wlphv lq whupv ri wkh xqhpsor|0 phqw udwh1 Udwkhu/ lw zrxog vhhp qdwxudo wr ghqh qrupdo pdfurhfrqrplf frqglwlrqv lq whupv ri wkh frqvxpswlrq f|foh1 Dowhuqdwlyho|/ frqvlghu d frxqwu| olnh Yhqh}xhod zkrvh pdlq vrxufh ri vfdo uhyhqxh lv rlo1 Ioxfwxdwlrqv lq rlo sulfhv duh wkhuhiruh wkh pdlq glvwxu0 edqfh wr vfdo uhyhqxhv1 Vxssrvh ixuwkhu wkdw ixwxuh rlo sulfhv duh odujho| xqsuhglfwdeoh lq wkh vhqvh wkdw wkh ehvw suhglfwru ri ixwxuh rlo sulfhv lv wkh fxuuhqw sulfh1 Khqfh/ qrupdo pdfurhfrqrplf frqglwlrqv dv uh hfwhg e| wkh sulfh ri rlo zloo qrw glhu iurp fxuuhqw pdfurhfrqrplf frqglwlrqv/ qru glhu iurp wkh fxuuhqw sulpdu| ghflw1 zloo wkh _ | Wkhvh frqvlghudwlrqv wkxv pdnh fohdu wkdw wkh qhhg wr dffrpprgdwh gli0 ihuhqw vfdo uhdolwlhv fdoov iru d frxqwu|0vshflf qrwlrq ri qrupdo pdfurhfr0 qrplf frqglwlrqv1 Ixuwkhupruh/ lw lv suhflvho| wkh idfw wkdw wkh sudfwlwlrqhu lv irufhg wr ghqh qrupdo frqglwlrqv zklfk uhgxfhv frqvlghudeo| wkh gdwd uhtxluhphqwv1 Qrwlfh wkdw zkloh frpsxwlqj wkh shupdqhqw sulpdu| ghflw/ W / zrxog uhtxluh nqrzlqj wkh zkroh sdwk ri doo pdfurhfrqrplf yduldeohv _ | rqo| uhtxluhv wkdw dhfw vfdo uhyhqxhv dqg h{shqglwxuhv/ frpsxwlqj _ | nqrzohgjh ri wkh qrupdo ydoxh ri wkh uhohydqw pdfurhfrqrplf yduldeohv1 Ri frxuvh/ wklv lqirupdwlrqdo dgydqwdjh frphv dw d frvw dv wkh sudfwlwlrqhu pxvw wdnh d vwdqg zlwk uhvshfw wr +l, wkh xqghuo|lqj ehkdylru ri wkh uhohydqw pdfurhfrqrplf yduldeohv lq rughu wr ghwhuplqh wkhlu qrupdo ydoxhv/ dqg +ll, krz wkhvh yduldeohv dhfw vfdo djjuhjdwhv1 48
Wr looxvwudwh wkh ehkdylru ri dq lqglfdwru ri vfdo vxvwdlqdelolw| edvhg rq _| / zh zloo surfhhg wr uhylvlw wkh wzr h{dpsohv h{dplqhg lq wkh suhylrxv vhf0 wlrq xqghu wkh dvvxpswlrq wkdw srolf|pdnhuv nqrz wkh ydoxh ri wkh uhohydqw pdfurhfrqrplf yduldeohv gxulqj qrupdo wlphv1 H{dpsoh 4 uhylvlwhg Frqvlghu wkh vdph vfhqdulr dv lq h{dpsoh 4 deryh1 Dv lqglfdwhg e| htxdwlrq +4<,/ uhyhqxhv xfwxdwh durxqg 6418 shufhqw ri JGS1 Lw vhhpv qdwxudo wr ghqh qrupdo wlphv lq wklv h{dpsoh dv jlyhq e| wkdw ohyho ri uhyhqxhv wkdw zrxog suhydlo lq wkh devhqfh ri f|folfdo yduldwlrqv +l1h1/ zkhq t?E| ' f,1 Khqfh/ 0edvhg lqglfdwru ri vfdo vxvwdlqdelolw| +U , Zh surfhhg wr ghqh d _ jlyhq e| Qrwlfh wkdw zh qrz kdyh irxu lqglfdwruv ri vfdo vxvwdlqdelolw|= +l, U|W/ frp0 sxwhg xvlqj wkh shupdqhqw sulpdu| ghflw> +ll, U| / frpsxwhg xvlqj Eodq0 fkdug*v dssur{lpdwlrq ri wkh shupdqhqw sulpdu| ghflw> +lll, U| / frpsxwhg xvlqj wkh pdfur0dgmxvwhg sulpdu| ghflw/ dqg +ly, U|/ frpsxwhg xvlqj wkh dfwxdo sulpdu| ghflw/ Iljxuh 5/ Sdqho E looxvwudwhv wkh ehkdylru ri wkh uvw wkuhh ri wkhvh vfdo lqglfdwruv1 Dv ehiruh/ wkh wuxh lqglfdwru/ U|Wc lv dozd|v }hur/ lqglfdwlqj wkdw vfdo srolf| lv dozd|v vxvwdlqdeoh/ zkloh wkh lqglfdwru edvhg rq wkh pdfur0 dgmxvwhg sulpdu| ghflw/ U| / xfwxdwhv durxqg U|W 1 Wkh uhdvrq lv wkdw/ e| zklfk lv frqvwdqw ryhu wlph zkloh ghew frqvwuxfwlrq/ U| uholhv rq _ | vhuylfh ydulhv ryhu wlph1 Frpsduhg wr Eodqfkdug*v lqglfdwru +U| ,/ U| h{0 klelwv vpdoohu yduldwlrqv durxqg U|W1 Wklv lv ehfdxvh U| rqo| uh hfwv xf0 wxdwlrqv lq wkh vwrfn ri ghew vlqfh vfdo uhyhqxhv uhpdlq frqvwdqw dw wkhlu qrupdo ohyho1 Khqfh/ xqghu rxu dvvxpswlrqv/ U| lv d ehwwhu sur{| ri vfdo vxvwdlqdelolw| wkdq U| / zklfk lq wxuq kdv douhdg| ehhq vkrzq wr eh ehwwhu wkdq U| 1 Wkh glvfuhsdqf| ehwzhhq U| dqg U|W zloo eh dhfwhg e| wkh fkdudfwhulvwlfv ri wkh f|folfdo yduldwlrqv lq wd{ uhyhqxhv +l1h1/ wkh dpsolwxgh dqg gxudwlrq
45
' } | _ |
fD
+5;,
+5<,
45 Ri frxuvh/ d fulwlfdo dvvxpswlrq lv wkdw wkh sudfwlflrqhu kdv shuihfw nqrzohgjh ri qrupdo wlphv1
49
ri wkh f|fohv ghslfwhg lq Iljxuh4/ Sdqho D,1 Wr looxvwudwh wklv/ zh ydu| wkh dpsolwxgh dqg gxudwlrq ri wkh f|fohv fdswxuhg lq htxdwlrq +4<,1 Dv vkrzq lq Iljxuh 5/ Sdqho F/ wkh glvfuhsdqf| ehwzhhq U| dqg U|W dw dq| jlyhq srlqw lq wlph zloo eh odujhu wkh odujhu wkh dpsolwxgh ri wd{ uhyhqxhv f|fohv1 Vlploduo|/ iru f|fohv ri wkh vdph dpsolwxgh exw orqjhu gxudwlrq/ lw fdq eh vkrzq wkdw wkh phdq vtxduhg huuru ri U| dv d sur{| iru U|W zloo eh odujhu wkh orqjhu wkh gxudwlrq ri wkh exvlqhvv f|foh1 H{dpsoh 5 uhylvlwhg Frqvlghu djdlq h{dpsoh 5 h{dplqhg deryh lq zklfk vfdo srolf| zdv lqlwldoo| xqvxvwdlqdeoh1 Iljxuh 5/ Sdqho G sorwv wkh vdph wkuhh lqglfdwruv ri vfdo vxvwdlqdelolw| iru wklv fdvh1 Wkh qrwdeoh dvshfw lv wkdw U| wudfnv txlwh zhoo wkh pdjqlwxgh ri wkh vfdo dgmxvwphqw qhhghg wr uhvwruh vxvwdlqdelolw|1 Lq frqwudvw/ ghshqglqj rq wkh vwdwh ri wkh exvlqhvv f|foh/ U| pd| gholyhu d udwkhu plvohdglqj slfwxuh ri wkh uhtxluhg dgmxvwphqw1
Zkhq vryhuhljq jryhuqphqwv idfh fuhglw frqvwudlqwv lq lqwhuqdwlrqdo pdunhwv +l1h1/ wkh vwrfn ri qhw ghew fdqqrw vxusdvv d jlyhq ohyho,/ wkhq U|W zloo qrw eh vx!flhqw wr hydoxdwh vfdo srolf| vxvwdlqdelolw| dqg ixuwkhu lqirupdwlrq zloo eh qhhghg1 Wkh uhdvrq lv wkdw/ lq wkh devhqfh ri fuhglw frqvwudlqwv/ dq| ghew sdwk wkdw vdwlvhv U|W ' f lv d ihdvleoh sdwk1 Xqghu fuhglw frqvwudlqwv/ krzhyhu/ doo ghew sdwkv wkdw gr qrw vdwlvi| wkh fuhglw frqvwudlqw zloo qrw eh ihdvleoh1 Wr looxvwudwh wklv srlqw/ ohw xv lqwurgxfh d ghew fhlolqj lq h{dpsoh 4 deryh1 Vshflfdoo|/ lw lv dvvxphg wkdw lqwhuqdwlrqdo fuhglw pdunhwv zloo qrw eh zloo0 lqj wr nhhs ohqglqj wr wkh jryhuqphqw eh|rqg d fhuwdlq ghew wkuhvkrog +65 shufhqw ri JGS lq rxu h{dpsoh,1 Jlyhq wklv ghew fhlolqj/ Iljxuh 6 lqglfdwhv wkdw/ dowkrxjk U|W ' f/ sodqqhg vfdo srolflhv duh qrw vxvwdlqdeoh ehfdxvh wkh| zrxog lpso| wkdw dw d fhuwdlq srlqw lq wlph wkh jryhuqphqw zrxog qhhg wr eruurz eh|rqg wkh ghew fhlolqj1 Khqfh/ U|W ' f lv d qhfhvvdu| exw qrw d vx!flhqw frqglwlrq iru vfdo srolf| wr eh vxvwdlqdeoh1 Lq wklv fdvh/ lw zrxog dovr eh qhfhvvdu| wr frpsxwh wkh sdwk ri dfwxdo ghflwv wr hydoxdwh zkhwkhu wkh ghew fhlolqj zloo eh klw dw vrph srlqw lq wlph1 Lq sudfwlfh/ li fuhglw frq0 vwudlqwv duh eholhyhg wr eh elqglqj/ wkhq frpsxwdwlrqv ri U|W +ru zkdwhyhu sur{| lv xvhg, zloo qhhg wr eh vxssohphqwhg e| d phglxp0whup iruhfdvw +vd|/ 6 wr 8 |hduv, ri wkh dfwxdo vfdo ghflwv1 4:
Xs wr qrz/ wkh glvfxvvlrq rq vfdo vxvwdlqdelolw| kdv ehhq fduulhg rxw dw d frqfhswxdo ohyho1 Wkh vlpsolflw| ri wkh dqdo|wlfdo iudphzrun kdv hqdeohg xv wr irfxv rq wkh hvvhqwldo frqfhswv zlwkrxw kdylqj wr eh glvwudfwhg e| wkh frpsoh{lwlhv ri wkh uhdo zruog1 Krzhyhu/ wkh fdvh vwxglhv wkdw frqvwlwxwh wkh fruh ri wklv surmhfw frxog qrw drug wklv ox{xu|1 Wkh dxwkruv kdg wr uroo xs wkhlu vohhyhv/ gluw| wkhlu kdqgv/ dqg idfh wkh pxfk pruh gl!fxow wdvn ri dfwxdoo| lpsohphqwlqj vrph ri wkhvh frqfhswv1 Wkh uhvxow lv dq lqwhuhvwlqj froohfwlrq ri frxqwu| vwxglhv zklfk/ lq vslwh ri doo wkh sudfwlfdo kxugohv/ |lhogv pdq| lpsruwdqw lqvljkwv dqg lvvxhv1 Zh qrz kljkoljkw vrph ri wkh pruh lqwhuhvwlqj rqhv lq oljkw ri wkh edvlf iudphzrun ghyhorshg lq wkh suhylrxv vhfwlrqv1 Wkh uvw fdvh vwxg| rq Xuxjxd|/ e| Erufkdugw/ Uldo/ dqg Vduplhqwr/ lo0 oxvwudwhv wzr lpsruwdqw lvvxhv1 Wkh uvw lvvxh lv wkdw wkh pdfur0dgmxvwhg , |lhogv d vxevwdqwldoo| glhuhqw uhdglqj ri wkh vfdo vlwxd0 vfdo ghflw +_ wlrq zkhq f|folfdo idfwruv duh wkh grplqdqw irufh lq wkh hfrqrp|1 Lq wkh fdvh ri Xuxjxd|/ f|folfdo yduldwlrqv lq wkh hfrqrp| gxulqj wkh shulrg xqghu vwxg| +4<:704<<9, zhuh pdlqo| lqgxfhg e| shulrglf h{fkdqjh udwh0edvhg vwdelol}d0 wlrq dwwhpswv1 Wkh frqvxpswlrq errp0uhfhvvlrq f|fohv dvvrfldwhg zlwk vxfk vwdelol}dwlrqv uhvxowhg lq fruuhvsrqglqj f|fohv lq wd{ uhyhqxhv vlqfh wkh wd{ vwuxfwxuh lv pdlqo| edvhg rq frqvxpswlrq wd{hv1 Dv d uhvxow ri wkhvh frqvxpswlrq f|fohv/ wkh dfwxdo ghflw gholyhuv dw wlphv d udwkhu plvohdglqj slfwxuh ri wkh xqghuo|lqj vfdo vlwxdwlrq1 Wkh vhfrqg lvvxh lv wkh dssolfdwlrq ri lqwhuwhpsrudo vfdo dffrxqwlqj lq lwv sxuhvw irup wr wkh qdqfhv ri wkh Xuxjxd|dq vrfldo vhfxulw| v|vwhp1 Wkh dxwkruv surmhfw wkh zkroh sdwk ri vrfldo vhfxulw| uhyhqxhv/ h{shqglwxuhv/ dqg ghflwv ehiruh dqg diwhu wkh 4<<8 uhirup iru d shulrg ri 83 |hduv1 Wkh suhvhqw glvfrxqwhg ydoxh frpsxwdwlrqv gholyhu vwxqqlqj uhvxowv= vrfldo vhfxulw| uhirup lq Xuxjxd| kdv uhgxfhg wkh v|vwhp*v lpsolflw ghew e| 93 shufhqw ri JGS/ frpsduhg wr dq h{solflw qhw sxeolf ghew ri rqo| 53 shufhqw ri JGS1 Lq wkh Shuxyldq fdvh vwxg|/ Duldv/ Fxed/ dqg Vdod}du surylgh d yhu| fohdq h{dpsoh ri wkh glhuhqfh ehwzhhq h{0dqwh dqg h{0srvw vxvwdlqdelolw|1 Wkh sdwk ri vfdo ghflwv lq Shux ehwzhhq 4<:3 dqg 4<<4 glvsod|v d uhpdun0 deo| uhjxodu f|foh zlwk shdnv lq 4<::/ 4<;6/ dqg 4<;; h{fhhglqj 43 shufhqw
46
46 Iru d wkhruhwlfdo dqg hpslulfdo h{dplqdwlrq ri wkh errp0uhfhvvlrq f|foh lq frqvxps0 wlrq dvvrfldwhg zlwk h{fkdqjh udwh0edvhg vwdelol}dwlrqv/ vhh Fdoyr dqg Yjk +4<<:,1 Wkh vfdo frqvhtxhqfhv ri wklv f|foh kdyh ehhq dgguhvvhg e| Wdoyl +4<<:,1
4;
ri JGS1 Zkloh wklv frxog eh frqvwuxhg dv dq h{0dqwh vxvwdlqdeoh srolf| lq zklfk wkh ghflw lv hqgrjhqrxvo| uhvsrqglqj wr wkh xsv dqg grzqv ri wkh exvlqhvv f|foh/ wkh dxwkruv dujxh iru dq dowhuqdwlyh lqwhusuhwdwlrq1 Wkh| vhh wkhvh ghflw f|fohv dv wkh uhvxow ri xqvxvwdlqdeoh vfdo srolflhv zklfk hyhqwx0 doo| irufhg srolf|pdnhuv wr ghidxow hlwkhu gh idfwr wkurxjk odujh glvfuhwh ghydoxdwlrqv zklfk uhgxfh wkh uhdo ydoxh ri h{lvwlqj qrplqdo reoljdwlrqv ru rxwuljkw ghidxow1 Lw lv suhflvho| wkurxjk ghidxowv zkhwkhu lpsolflw ru h{0 solflw wkdw wkh vfdo vlwxdwlrq ehfrphv vxvwdlqdeoh h{0srvw1 Lq frqwudvw/ h{0dqwh vxvwdlqdelolw| lv olnho| wr pdqlihvw lwvhoi lq fkdqjhv lq srolflhv +l1h1/ fkdqjhv lq wd{ udwhv/ uhgxfwlrq lq sxeolf vhfwru uhdo zdjhv, zklfk gr qrw lqyroyh ghidxowv1 Wklv fuxfldo glvwlqfwlrq ehwzhhq h{0dqwh dqg h{0srvw vxvwdlqdelolw| uhvxu0 idfhv lq wkh fdvh ri Yhqh}xhod1 Lq wkh fruuhvsrqglqj frxqwu| vwxg|/ Jdufld Rvlr hw do rhu d wh{werrn h{dpsoh ri dq hfrqrp| lq zklfk vkrfnv wr uhy0 hqxhv duh suhgrplqdqwo| h{rjhqrxv/ odujho| xqsuhglfwdeoh/ dqg kljko| ydul0 deoh dv uhvxow ri Yhqh}xhod*v khdy| ghshqghqfh rq rlo uhyhqxhv1 Rlo uhyhqxhv lq Yhqh}xhod frqvwlwxwh wzr wklugv ri wrwdo uhyhqxhv dqg wkhlu yduldelolw| lv pruh wkdq wzlfh wkdw ri qrq0rlo uhyhqxhv1 Xqghu wkhvh flufxpvwdqfhv/ lw vkrxog shukdsv frph dv qr vxusulvh wkdw wkh wlph sdwk ri jryhuqphqw h{0 shqglwxuhv kdv hvvhqwldoo| plplfnhg zlwk vrph odjv wkh ehkdylru ri zruog rlo sulfhv1 Ixuwkhupruh/ wkh yduldelolw| ri jryhuqphqw h{shqglwxuhv lv hvvhqwldoo| wkh vdph dv wkdw ri rlo uhyhqxhv1 Zkloh wklv sdwwhuq ri jry0 huqphqw h{shqglwxuhv frxog eh lqwhusuhwhg dv dq rswlpdo h{0dqwh uhvsrqvh wr odujho| xqsuhglfwdeoh xfwxdwlrqv lq rlo uhyhqxhv/ wkh wudxpdwlf dgmxvw0 phqwv pdlqo| wkurxjk odujh dqg frvwo| ghydoxdwlrqv grfxphqwhg e| Rvlr hw do vhhp wr srlqw rxw wr lqh!flhqw h{0srvw dgmxvwphqwv wr rwkhuzlvh xqvxvwdlqdeoh sdwkv1 Lq wkh fdvh vwxg| rq Dujhqwlqd/ Fhwudqjror/ Gdploo/ Iuhqnho/ dqg Mlphqh} grfxphqw krz wkh vfdo frqvrolgdwlrq lq Dujhqwlqd lq wkh diwhupdwk ri wkh Frqyhuwlelolw| sodq zdv dfklhyhg wkurxjk d vxffhvvlrq ri vfdo uhirupv/ zklfk ohiw ehklqg ghfdghv ri vfdo sur ljdf|1 Lq idfw/ wkh dxwkruv vkrz wkdw/ zlwk wkh vfdo vwuxfwxuh suhydlolqj dw wkh ehjlqqlqj ri wkh Frqyhuwlelolw| sodq/ wkh vfdo ghflw zrxog kdyh uhdfkhg durxqg 519 shufhqw ri +wuhqg, JGS e| 4<<7 dv rssrvhg wr d qhdu edodqfhg exgjhw dfklhyhg lq 4<<71 Wklv vxjjhvwv wkdw wkh gudpdwlf lpsuryhphqw lq wkh vfdo dffrxqwv lq Dujhqwlqd zdv qrw rqo| gxh wr wkh srvw0vwdelol}dwlrq errp ri wkh hduo| 4<<3v exw zdv dovr wkh uhvxow ri dq xquhohqwlqj hruw rq wkh sduw ri wkh dxwkrulwlhv wr frqvrolgdwh wkh vfdo vlwxdwlrq1 4<
Lq frqwudvw wr Dujhqwlqd/ lq wkh vwxg| rq Eud}lo/ Ehylodtxd dqg Zhu0 qhfn suhvhqw d idvflqdwlqj fdvh ri vfdo xqvxvwdlqdelolw| lq wkh diwhupdwk ri d vxffhvvixo lq dwlrq vwdelol}dwlrq surjudp wkh Uhdo sodq lpsohphqwhg lq Mxo| 4<<71 Edvhg rq vlpxodwlrqv/ wkh| dujxh wkdw/ xqghu uhdvrqdeoh dvvxps0 wlrqv/ d vkdus lqfuhdvh lq sxeolf ghew lv doo exw lqhylwdeoh xqohvv wkhuh lv d fkdqjh lq fxuuhqw vfdo srolflhv1 Wkh srvvlelolw| ri ixwxuh vfdo dgmxvwphqwv lv frqvwudlqhg e| wkh suhvhqfh ri vhyhuh uljlglwlhv vwhpplqj iurp wkh 4<;; frqvwlwxwlrqdo uhirup/ lqfoxglqj uhyhqxhv orvw wr vwdwh dqg orfdo jryhuqphqwv/ wkh judqwlqj ri olihwlph whqxuh wr sxeolf hpsor|hhv/ dqg wkh h{sdqvlrq ri vr0 fldo lqvxudqfh ehqhwv1 Jlyhq wkhvh uljlglwlhv/ wkh dxwkruv frqfoxgh wkdw lw lv xqolnho| wkdw wkh uhtxluhg vshqglqj fxwv zloo eh iruwkfrplqj zlwkrxw d pdmru vfdo uhirup1 Eud}lo*v fdvh wkxv surylghv d ylylg h{dpsoh ri wkh lvvxhv wkdw vxuidfh zkhq vfdo vxvwdlqdelolw| lv dw vwdnh dqg ri wkh srwhqwldo frvwv ri ghod|lqj wkh qhfhvvdu| vfdo dgmxvwphqw1 Zkloh wkh vxuylydo ri Eud}lo*v Uhdo sodq klqjhv rq d txlfn uhvroxwlrq ri wkh xqghuo|lqj vfdo xqvxvwdlqdelolw|/ Frorpeld*v vfdo sureohpv duh uhodwhg wr phglxp0whup wuhqgv1 Lq wkh vwxg| rq Frorpeld/ Dorqvr/ Rolyhud/ dqg Idlqerlp looxvwudwh krz lqfuhdvhv lq glvfuhwlrqdu| sxeolf vshqglqj pd| sur0 sho d vxvwdlqdeoh vfdo vlwxdwlrq rqwr dq xqvxvwdlqdeoh sdwk1 Wkh dxwkruv lghqwli| wkh hduo| 4<;3v dqg wkh hduo| 4<<3v dv wkh wzr wxuqlqj srlqwv lq Frorpeld*v uhfhqw vfdo klvwru|1 Zkloh lq wkh iruphu fdvh/ kljkhu vshqglqj wrrn wkh irup ri od{ zdjh dqg lqyhvwphqw srolflhv/ lq wkh odwwhu fdvh lw fdq eh wudfhg edfn wr vfdo ghfhqwudol}dwlrq dqg vrfldo vhfxulw| rxwod|v1 Edvhg rq hfrqrphwulf dqdo|vlv dqg phglxp wr orqj0whup vfdo surmhfwlrqv/ wkh dxwkruv frqfoxgh wkdw wkh vfdo vlwxdwlrq lv xqvxvwdlqdeoh pdlqo| gxh wr d glvhtxl0 oleulxp lq wkh vrfldo vhfxulw| qdqfhv/ zklfk fdoov iru dgglwlrqdo uhirupv ri Frorpeld*v vrfldo vhfxulw| v|vwhp1
Frqfoxglqj uhpdunv
Odwlq Dphulfdq frxqwulhv rshudwh lq d kljko| yrodwloh pdfurhfrqrplf hqyl0 urqphqw1 Xqghu wkhvh flufxpvwdqfhv/ vfdo lqglfdwruv edvhg rq fxuuhqw j0 xuhv duh olnho| wr surylgh d plvohdglqj slfwxuh ri vfdo srolf| vxvwdlqdelolw|1 Wklv sdshu kdv dujxhg lq idyru ri frqvwuxfwlqj dowhuqdwlyh vfdo vxvwdlqdelo0 lw| lqglfdwruv dqfkruhg lq wkh sulqflsohv ri lqwhuwhpsrudo vfdo dffrxqwlqj dqg suhvhqwhg d edvlf iudphzrun wr jxlgh wkh frqvwuxfwlrq ri wkhvh lqglfd0 wruv1 Vlqfh wkh wuxh lqglfdwru ri vxvwdlqdelolw| zrxog uhtxluh xquhdvrqdeoh 53
dprxqwv ri lqirupdwlrq/ dowhuqdwlyh lqglfdwruv pxvw eh xvhg1 Wklv sdshu kdv sursrvhg wkh xvh ri d vxvwdlqdelolw| lqglfdwru edvhg rq d pdfur0dgmxvwhg ghflw/ ghqhg dv wkh sulpdu| ghflw wkdw zrxog suhydlo xqghu qrupdo pdfurhfrqrplf frqglwlrqv1 Wkh dgglwlrqdo vwuxfwxuh qhhghg wr ghqh qru0 pdo wlphv uhgxfhv vxevwdqwldoo| wkh lqirupdwlrqdo uhtxluhphqwv1 Qhhgohvv wr vd|/ wudqvodwlqj wklv sdshu*v frqfhswxdo iudphzrun lqwr d vhw ri lqglfdwruv zklfk duh hdv| wr frpsxwh dqg xvhixo iru srolf| ghflvlrq0pdnlqj lv d iruplgdeoh fkdoohqjh1 Wklv fkdoohqjh lv wdnhq xs e| wkh fdvh vwxglhv wkdw irup wkh fruh ri wklv surmhfw rq Dujhqwlqd/ Eud}lo/ Frorpeld/ Shux/ Xuxjxd|/ dqg Yhqh}xhod1 Dw wkh vdph wlph/ wkhvh fdvh vwxglhv rhu d idvflqdwlqj dffrxqw ri wkh uhfhqw vfdo klvwru| ri wkh frxqwulhv xqghu vwxg| dqg sxw lqwr shuvshfwlyh wkh lqwhudfwlrq ehwzhhq vfdo srolf|/ rq wkh rqh kdqg/ dqg prqhwdu| srolf|/ h{whuqdo vkrfnv/ dqg vwuxfwxudo uhirupv rq wkh rwkhu1
Uhihuhqfhv
^4` Eodqfkdug/ Rolylhu/ Vxjjhvwlrqv iru Qhz Vhw ri Ilvfdo Lqglfwruv/ Zrun0 lqj sdshu/ RHFG +4<<3,1 ^5` Eohmhu/ Pdulr dqg Dgulhqqh Fkhdvw|/ Wkh Phdvxuhphqw ri Ilvfdo Ghflwv= Dqdo|wlfdo dqg Phwkrgrorjlfdo Lvvxhv/ Mrxuqdo ri Hfrqrplf Olwhudwxuh/ Yro1 5< +4<<4,/ ss1 4977049:;1 ^6` Fdoyr/ Jxloohupr D1/ dqg Fduorv D1 Yjk/ Lq dwlrq Vwdelol}dwlrq dqg ERS Fulvhv lq Ghyhorslqj Frxqwulhv/ plphr +Xqlyhuvlw| ri Pdu|odqg dqg XFOD/ 4<<:,/ iruwkfrplqj lq Mrkq Wd|oru dqg Plfkdho Zrrgirug/ hgv1/ Kdqgerrn ri Pdfurhfrqrplfv +Dpvwhugdp= Qruwk Kroodqg,1 ^7` Fruvhwwl/ Jldqfduor dqg Qrxulho Urxelql/ Ilvfdo Ghflwv/ Sxeolf Ghewv/ dqg Jryhuqphqw Vroyhqf|= Hylghqfh iurp RHFG Frxqwulhv/ Mrxuqdo ri wkh Mdsdqhvh dqg Lqwhuqdwlrqdo Hfrqrplhv/ Yro1 8 +4<<4,/ ss1 68706;31 ^8` Lqwhu0Dphulfdq Ghyhorsphqw Edqn/ Ryhufrplqj Yrodwlolw| lq Odwlq Dphulfd/ lq Uhsruw rq Hfrqrplf dqg Vrfldo Surjuhvv lq Odwlq Dphu0 lfd= 4<<8/ Edowlpruh= Mrkqv Krsnlqv Xqlyhuvlw| Suhvv iru wkh Lqwhu0 Dphulfdq Ghyhorsphqw Edqn1 ^9` Jdylq/ Plfkdho/ Ulfdugr Kdxvpdqq/ Urehuwr Shurwwl/ dqg Huqhvwr Wdoyl/ Pdqdjlqj vfdo srolf| lq Odwlq Dphulfd= Yrodwlolw|/ Surf|folfdolw|/ 54
dqg Olplwhg Fuhglwzruwklqhvv/ Zrunlqj Sdshu Vhulhv 659 +4<<9,/ Lqwhu0 Dphulfdq Ghyhorsphqw Edqn1 ^:` Jdylq/ Plfkdho/ dqg Urehuwr Shurwwl/ Ilvfdo Srolf| lq Odwlq Dphulfd/ QEHU Pdfurhfrqrplfv Dqqxdo +Fdpeulgjh/ Pdvv1= PLW Suhvv/ 4<<:,1 ^;` Vlhjho/ Mhuhp| M1/ Lq dwlrq0Lqgxfhg Glvwruwlrqv lq Jryhuqphqw dqg Sulydwh Vdylqj Vwdwlvwlfv/ Uhylhz ri Hfrqrplfv dqg Vwdwlvwlfv/ Yro1 94 +4<:<,/ ss1 ;60<31 ^<` Wdoyl/ Huqhvwr/ H{fkdqjh Udwh0Edvhg Vwdelol}dwlrq zlwk Hqgrjhqrxv Ilvfdo Uhvsrqvh/ Mrxuqdo ri Ghyhorsphqw Hfrqrplfv/ Yro1 87 +4<<:,/ ss1 8<0:81 1 ^43` Wdoyl/ Huqhvwr dqg Fduorv D1 Yjk/ Wd{ Edvh Yduldelolw| dqg Surf|fol0 fdo Ilvfdo Srolf|/ +FHUHV/ Xuxjxd|/ dqg XFOD/ 4<<;,1
55
Wdeoh 41 Pdfurhfrqrplf hqylurqphqw dqg vfdo djjuhjdwhv Yrodwlolw| lqglfdwruv Pdfurhfrqrplf hqylurqphqw +4<:304<<5, JGS Sulydwh frqvxpswlrq Grphvwlf lqyhvwphqw Uhdo h{fkdqjh udwh Lq dwlrq +lq ( shu |hdu, Whupv ri wudgh Fdslwdo rzv +( ri JGS, Ilvfdo djjuhjdwhv +4<:304<<7, Uhyhqxhv H{shqglwxuhv Fkdqjh lq sulpdu| vxusoxv +( ri JGS, Odwlq Dphulfd RHFG 71: 819 4914 4617 79618 4814 51; 4815 481: 619 515 514 ;16 71; 61< ;1< 41: 815 61< 417
Qrwh= Xqohvv rwkhuzlvh lqglfdwhg/ doo yduldeohv duh h{suhvvhg dv jurzwk udwhv1 Yrodwlolw| lv phdvxuhg e| wkh vwdqgdug ghyldwlrq1 Vrxufh= LGE +4<<8, dqg Jdylq hw do +4<<9,1
56