მაკროეკონომიკა

makroekonomika
mexuTe gamocema
olivie blanSari
masaCusetsis teqnologiuri instituti
olivie blanSaris wignis, `makroekonomika~, inglisuri gamocemis avtorizebuli Targmani (mexuTe gamocema, ISBN 0-130207829-5), gamomcemeli Pearson
Education, Inc. Pearson Prentice Hall.
saavtoro ufleba inglisur gamocemaze 2009, 2006, 2003, 2000, 1997 by Pearson Education, Inc., Upper Saddle River, niu jersi, indeqsi 07459.
samecniero redaqtori
gamomcemlobis redaqtorebi:
mTargmnelebi:
ydis dizaini
dakabadoneba:
iuri ananiaSvili
marine varamaSvili
marine giorgobiani
cira jiSkariani
dali germaniSvili
maia ejibia
nodar xaduri
malxaz Ciqobava
nazira kakulia
TinaTin CirinaSvili
naTia dvali
wignis qarTuli Targmani moamzada ivane javaxiSvilis saxelobis

Tbilisis saxelmwifo universitetma saqarTveloSi amerikis SeerTebuli Statebis saelCos finansuri mxardaWeriT.
yvela saavtori ufleba daculia. Pearson education, Inc-is

Tanxmobis gareSe ar SeiZleba wignis romelime nawilis aslis gadaReba, gamravleba an gavrceleba raime formiT,
eleqtronuli an meqanikuri saSualebebiT, fotokopirebiT
an informaciuli Senaxvis raime sxva saSualebiT.
Tbilisis universitetis gamomcemloba, 2010

ISBN 978-9941-13-186-8
M01_BL
mokle sarCevi
birTvi
gafarToeba
Sesavali
Tavi 1
Tavi 2
msoflios garSemo
wignis garSemo
moklevadiani periodi
Tavi 3
Tavi 4
Tavi 5
molodinebi 425
3
27
63
saqonlis bazari
65
finansuri bazrebi
95
saqonlisa da finansuri bazrebi:
ISLM modeli 129
Tavi 14
molodinebi: ZiriTadi
instrumentebi 427
Tavi 15
finansuri bazrebi da
molodinebi 461
Tavi 16
molodini, moxmareba
da investicia 495
Tavi 17
molodinebi, gamoSveba da
politika 529
Ria ekonomika
saSualovadiani periodi 165
Tavi 6
Tavi 7
Tavi 8
Tavi 9
Sromis bazari 167

yvela bazris gaerTianeba:
ASAD modeli 201
umuSevrobis bunebrivi
done da filipsis
mrudi 241
inflacia, aqtivoba da
nominaluri fulis zrda 269
grZelvadiani periodi
575
Tavi 18
saqonlisa da finansuri
bazrebis gaxsniloba 559
Tavi 19
saqonlis bazari
Ria ekonomikaSi 589
Tavi 20
gamoSveba, saprocento ganakveTi

da gacvliTi kursi 623
Tavi 21
gacvliTi kursis reJimebi 655
paTologiebi
Tavi 22
Tavi 23
693
depresiebi da mkveTri vardna 695

maRali inflacia 733
299
Tavi 10
Tavi 11
monacemebi zrdis Sesaxeb

301
dazogva, kapitalis dagroveba
da gamoSveba 325
Tavi 12
Tavi 13
ukan politikisken 759

Tavi 24
unda SeizRudon politikis

gamtareblebi? 761
teqnologiuri progresi
da zrda 361
Tavi 25
teqnologiuri progresi:
mokle-, saSualo- da
grZelvadiani periodebi 393
Tavi 26
monetaruli politika:
Sejameba 791
fiskaluri politika:
Sejameba 821
epilogi: makroekonomikis
istoria 857
Tavi 27
III
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sarCevi
birTvi
Sesavali
Tavi 1
1
3
msoflios garSemo
1-1 amerikis SeerTebuli Statebi 4
3-3 wonasworuli gamoSvebis gansazRvra 73
Sevida Tu ara aSS axal ekonomikaSi? 6;

SemaSfoTebelia Tu ara aSS-is savaWro
balansi? 8
algebris gamoyeneba 75; grafikis gamoyeneba 76; msjelobiT 79; ramdeni dro
sWirdeba gamoSvebis SesabamisobaSi
moyvanas? 80
1-2 evrokavSiri 10
3-4 investiciebi danazogebis tolia:

saqonlis bazris wonasworobis alternatiuli gza 84
rogor SeiZleba Semcirdes evropaSi

arsebuli umuSevroba? 12; ras gaakeTebs evro evropisTvis? 14
1-3 CineTi 16
3-5 aris Tu ara mTavroba yovlisSemZle? gafrTxileba 88
1-4 momavlis ganWvreta 20

danarTi: sad movZebnoT monacemebi 24
Tavi 2
wignis garSemo 27
2-1 erToblivi gamoSveba 28
mTliani Sida produqti: warmoeba da
Semosavali 28; nominaluri da realuri mTliani Sida produqti 32; mTliani
Sida produqti: moculoba Tu zrdis
tempi 35
2-2 sxva mniSvnelovani makroekonomikuri maCveneblebi 38

umuSevrobis done 38; inflaciis done 41; mTliani Sida produqtis deflatori 41; samomxmareblo fasebis
indeqsi 44
2-3 mokle-, saSualo- da grZelvadiani pe-
riodebi 48
2-4 wignis garSemo 49
birTvi 49; analizis gafarToeba 51;
ukan politikisken 52; epilogi 52;
danarTi: realuri mTliani Sida produqtisa da jaWvuri tipis indeqsebis konstruqcia 59
moklevadiani periodi 63
Tavi 3
saqonlis bazari
65
3-1 mTliani Sida produqtis Semadgenloba 66

3-2 saqonelze moTxovna 68
moxmareba (C) 69; investiciebi (I) 72; saxelmwifo danaxarjebi (G)72
IV
IV
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10
Tavi 4
finansuri bazrebi
95
4-1 fulze moTxovna 96

fulze moTxovnis funqciis gamoyvana
99
4-2 saprocento ganakveTis

gansazRvra, I 102
fulze moTxovna, fulis miwodeba da
wonasworuli saprocento ganakveTi
103; monetaruli politika da operaciebi Ria bazarze 106; operaciebi
Ria bazarze 106; obligaciis fasebi
da obligaciidan Semosavlebi 107; ra
avirCioT: fuli Tu saprocento ganakveTi? 109; fuli, obligaciebi da sxva
aqtivebi 109
4-3 saprocento ganakveTis

gansazRvra, II 110
ras akeTeben bankebi 110; centraluri
bankis fulis miwodeba da masze moTxovna 114; fulze moTxovna 115; rezervebze moTxovna 116; centraluri bankis
fulze moTxovna 116; saprocento ganakveTis gansazRvra 117
4-4 wonasworobis ganxilvis ori alternatiuli xerxi 119

federaluri fondebis bazari da federaluri fondebis ganakveTi 119;
fulis miwodeba, fulze moTxovna da
fulis multi plikatori 120; fulis
multi plikatori 122
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Tavi 5
saqonlisa da finansuri bazrebi

IS-LM modeli 129
7-3 wonasworoba mokle- da saSualovadian periodebSi 209

wonasworoba moklevadian periodSi
210; moklevadianidan saSualovadian
periodamde 211
5-1 saqonlis bazrebi da IS damokidebuleba

130
investiciebi, gayidvebi da saprocento ganakveTi 130; gamoSvebis gansazRvra 131; IS
mrudis miReba 133; IS mrudis gadaadgileba
134
5-2 finansuri bazrebi da LM damokidebuleba 136

realuri fuli, realuri Semosavali da
saprocento ganakveTi 136; LM mrudis miReba 137; LM mrudis gadaadgileba 138
5-3 IS da LM damokidebulebebis gaerTianeba 140

fiskaluri politika, aqtivoba da saprocento ganakveTi 141; monetaruli politika, aqtivoba da saprocento ganakveTi 144
7-4 monetaruli eqspansiis Sedegebi 213

SesabamisobaSi moyvanis dinamika 213;
scenis miRma 215; fulis neitraluroba 217
7-5 biujetis deficitis Semcireba 219

deficitis Semcireba, gamoSveba da saprocento ganakveTi 220; biujetis deficiti, gamoSveba da investicia 222
7-6 cvlilebebi navTobis fasSi 223

gavlena umuSevrobis bunebriv doneze
226; SesabamisobaSi moyvanis procesis
dinamika 226
7-7 daskvnebi 231
5-4 koordinirebuli politika 147
moklevadiani periodis Sedareba saSualovadian periodTan 231; Sokebi da

gadamcemi meqanizmebi 232; raze visaubrebT Semdeg: gamoSveba, umuSevroba da
inflacia 233
5-5 ramdenad Seesabameba IS modeli

movlenebs? 152
danarTi: saprocento ganakveTis wesi,
rogorc LM damokidebulebis alternatiuli gamoyvana 162
Tavi 8
saSualovadiani periodi 16
165
Tavi 6
Sromis bazari
167
6-1 Sromis bazris mimoxilva 168
8-1 inflacia, mosalodneli inflacia da

umuSevroba 242
8-2 filipsis mrudi 244
muSaxelis didi nakadi 169
Tavdapirveli varianti 244; mutaciebi

245; ukan umuSevrobis bunebrivi donisken 250
6-2 moZraoba umuSevrobaSi 172

6-3 xelfasis gansazRvra 177
xelSekruleba 178; efeqtiani xelfasi 178;
xelfasi, fasebi da dasaqmeba 179
8-3 reziume da mravali gafrTxileba 252

bunebrivi donis cvlileba qveynebis
mixedviT 252; umuSevrobis bunebrivi
donis cvlileba droSi 256; maRali
inflacia da fili psis mrudis damokidebuleba 260; deflacia da fili psis
mrudis damokidebuleba 262
6-4 fasis gansazRvra 183

6-5 umuSevrobis bunebrivi done 185
xelfaswarmoqmnis (xelfasis gansazRvris)
damokidebuleba 185; faswarmoqmnis (fasebis gansazRvris) damokidebuleba 186;
wonasworuli realuri xelfasi da umuSevroba 187; umuSevrobidan dasaqmebamde
190; dasaqmebidan gamoSvebamde 191
6-6 aqedan saiT mivdivarT 192

danarTi: xelfasisa da fasis gansazRvris
damokidebuleba Sromaze moTxovnasa da
Sromis miwodebasTan SedarebiT 198
Tavi 7

AS - AD modeli 201
7-1 erToblivi miwodeba 202

7-2 erToblivi moTxovna 206
umuSevrobis bunebrivi done

da filipsis mrudi 241
danarTi: erToblivi miwodebis damokidebulebidan inflacias, mosalodnel inflaciasa da umuSevrobas Soris damokidebulebamde 266
Tavi 9
inflacia, aqtivoba da
nominaluri fulis zrda 269
9-1 gamoSveba, umuSevroba da inflacia

270
oukenis kanoni 270; fili psis
mrudi 271; erToblivi moTxovnis
damokidebuleba 274
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9-2 fulis zrdis efeqtebi 276
sawarmoo funqciis gafarToeba

351; adamianuri kapitali, fizikuri
kapitali da gamoSveba 352; endogenuri
zrda 354
saSualovadiani periodi 278;

moklevadiani periodi 279
9-3 dezinflacia 281

pirveli cda 282; molodini da sandooba:
lukasis kritika 282; nominaluri sixiste
da kontraqtebi 286
danarTi: kob-duglasis sawarmoo

funqcia da mdgradi mdgomareoba 359
Tavi 12
grZelvadiani periodi 299

Tavi 10
monacemebi zrdis
Sesaxeb 301
12-1 teqnologiuri progresi da zrdis

tempi 362
teqnologiuri progresi da sawarmoo
funqcia 362; kapitalisa da gamoSvebis
urTierTqmedeba 365; gamoSvebisa
da kapitalis dinamika 368; dazogvis
normis efeqtebi 370
10-1 cxovrebis donis gazomva 302

10-2 zrda mdidar qveynebSi 1950 wlidan 309
cxovrebis donis mniSvnelovani zrda 1950
wlidan 309; erT adamianze gamoSvebis
konvergencia 1950 wlidan 310
12-2 teqnologiuri progresis

determinantebi 372
kvleviTi procesis Sedegianoba 372;
kvlevis Sedegebis gamoyenebadoba 377
10-3 zrda drosa da sivrceSi 312

zrda ori aTaswleulis ganmavlobaSi 312;
zrda qveynebis mixedviT 313
da zrda 361
12-3 kidev erTxel zrdis faqtebis

Sesaxeb 381
10-4 Sexedulebebi zrdis Sesaxeb: anbani 315
kapitalis dagroveba Tu teqnologiuri

progresi mdidar qveynebSi 1950
wlidan 381; kapitalis dagroveba Tu
teqnologiuri progresi CineTSi 1980
wlidan 383
agregirebuli sawarmoo funqcia 315; masStabisa da faqtorebis ukugeba 317; gamoSveba erT muSakze da kapitali erT muSakze 318; zrdis wyaroebi 319
danarTi: teqnologiuri progresis

Sefasebis gansazRvra 390
Tavi 11
dazogva, kapitalis dagroveba

da gamoSveba 325
11-1 gamoSvebasa da kapitals Soris

damokidebuleba 326
kapitalis zegavlena gamoSvebaze
326; gamoSvebis zegavlena kapitalis
dagrovebaze 328
11-2 dazogvis alternatiuli normebis

Sedegebi 331
kapitalisa da gamoSvebis dinamika
331; kapitalis mdgradi mdgomareoba
da gamoSveba 334; dazogvis norma
da gamoSveba 335; dazogvis norma da
moxmareba 340
11-3 mniSvnelobebis arsis miReba 343

dazogvis normis zegavlena mdgradi
mdgomareobis gamoSvebaze 343; dazogvis
normis zrdis dinamikuri efeqtebi 347;
aSS-Si dazogvis norma da oqros wesi 349
11-4 fizikuri Tu adamianuri kapitali 351
VI
VI
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 12
10
Tavi 13
mokle-, saSualo- da
grZelvadiani periodebi 393
13-1 mwarmoebluroba, gamoSveba da umuSevroba moklevadian periodSi 394

teqnologiuri progresi, erToblivi
miwodeba da erToblivi moTxovna 395;
empiriuli dasabuTeba 397
13-2 mwarmoebluroba da umuSevrobis bunebrivi done 399

faswarmoqmnisa da xelfaswarmoqmnis
gadasinjva 400; umuSevrobis bunebrivi
done 401; empiriuli dasabuTeba 403
13-3 teqnologiuri progresi, Carningi

da ganawilebis efeqti 406
xelfasis uTanabrobis zrda 410; xelfasebis uTanabrobis gazrdis mizezebi 410
13-4 institutebi, teqnologiuri

progresi da zrda 413
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gafarToeba
molodinebi 425
Tavi 14
molodinebi: ZiriTadi
instrumentebi 427
14-1 teqnologiuri progresi da zrdis tempi 428
15-3 sapnis buStebi, axireba da aqciis fasi 482

danarTi: arbitraJi da aqciebis fasi 491
molodini, moxmareba
Tavi 16
da investicia 495
16-1 moxmareba 496
Zalian windaxeduli momxmarebeli 496
magaliTi 498; ufro realisturi aRwerilobisken 500; sakiTxebis Tavmoyra:
mimdinare Semosavali, molodinebi da
moxmareba 503
nominaluri da realuri saprocento ganakveTi SeerTebul StatebSi 1978 wlidan 432
14-2 nominaluri da realuri saprocento

ganakveTi da IS-LM modeli 434
14-3 fulis zrda, inflacia da nominaluri
da realuri saprocento ganakveTi 435
IS-LM modelTan dabruneba 436; nominaluri da realuri saprocento ganakveTi
moklevadian periodSi 437; nominaluri
da realuri saprocento ganakveTi
saSualovadian periodSi 439; moklevadiani
periodidan saSualovadian periodamde
441; fiSeris hi poTezis magaliTebi 444
14-4 mosalodneli mimdinare

diskontirebuli Rirebuleba 446
mosalodneli mimdinare diskontirebuli
Rirebulebis gaTvla 447; zogadi formula
448; dayvanili (mimdinare) Rirebulebis
gamoyeneba: magaliTebi 449; mudmivi saprocento ganakveTi 450; mudmivi saprocento
ganakveTi da gadaxdebi 450; mudmivi saprocento ganakveTi da uvado gadaxdebi
451; nulovani saprocento ganakveTi 452;
nominaluri da realuri saprocento ganakveTi da dayvanili Rirebuleba 452;
danarTi: mosalodneli mimdinare diskontirebuli Rirebulebis gamoTvla

realuri da nominaluri saproceso
ganakveTis mixedviT 458
Tavi 15
finansuri bazrebi
da molodinebi 461
15-1 obligaciis fasebi da Semosavlianoba 462

obligaciis fasebi da mimdinare Rirebulebebi 463; arbitraJi da obligaciis
fasebi 466; obligaciebis fasebidan obligaciebis Semosvlianobamde 468; Semosavlianobis mrudis interpretacia 470;
Semosvlianobis mrudi da ekonomikuri
aqtivoba 470
15-2 safondo bazari da aqciebis fasebis

dinamika 474
aqciebis fasi da dayvanili (mimdinare) Rirebuleba 475; safondo bazari da ekonomikuri
aqtivoba 477; monetaruli eqspansia da safondo bazari 478; samomxmareblo xarjebis
zrda da safondo bazari 479
16-2 investicia 507

investicia da mogebis molodinebi 507;
amortizacia 507; mosalodnel mogebaTa mimdinare dayvanili Rirebuleba 508;
sainvesticio gadawyvetileba 509; mosaxerxebeli gansakuTrebuli SemTxveva 510; mimdinare mogeba mosalodnelis
sapirispirod 514; mogeba da gayidvebi 517
16-3 m oxmarebisa da investiciis cvalebadoba 519

danarTi: mogebaTa mosalodneli mimdinare
dayvanili Rirebulebis gamoTvla
statikuri molodinebis SemTxvevaSi 527
Tavi 17
molodinebi, gamoSveba
da politika 529
17-1 molodinebi da gadawyvetilebebi:

Sejameba 530
molodinebi, moxmareba da sainvesticio
gadawyvetilebebi 530; molodinebi da
IS damokidebuleba 531; davubrundeT LM
damokidebulebas 535
17-2 monetaruli politika, molodinebi da

gamoSveba 536
moklevadiani nominaluri ganakveTidan
mimdinare da mosalodnel realur
ganakveTebamde 537; davubrundeT
monetarul politikas 538
17-3 deficitis Semcireba, molodinebi da

gamoSveba 541
molodinebis roli momavlis formirebaSi
544; davubrundeT mimdinare periods 545
Ria ekonomika
Tavi 18
saqonlisa da finansuri
bazrebis gaxsniloba 559
18-1 saqonlis bazrebis gaxsniloba 560

eqsporti da importi 560; adgilobriv
da ucxour saqonels Soris arCevani 562;
nominaluri gacvliTi kursi 563; nominaluridan realur gacvliT kursamde 565;
ormxrivi da mravalmxrivi gacvliTi kursebi 569
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557
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gacvliTi kursis mibma da monetaruli

regulireba 639; fiskaluri politika
fiqsirebuli gacvliTi kursis
pirobebSi 644
18-2 finansuri bazrebis gaxsniloba 571

sagadasaxdelo balansi 572; adgilobriv
da ucxour aqtivebs Soris arCevani 575;
saprocento ganakveTebi da gacvliTi
kursebi 579
18-3 daskvnebi da momavlis xedva 582
Tavi
19
saqonlis bazari Ria

ekonomikaSi 589
19-1 IS damokidebuleba Ria ekonomikaSi 590
danarTi: fiqsirebuli gacvliTi

kursebi, saprocento ganakveTebi da
kapitalis mobiluroba 651
gacvliTi kursis
Tavi 21
reJimebi 655
21-1 saSualovadiani periodi 656
erToblivi moTxovna fiqsirebuli gacvliTi kursis SemTxvevaSi 658; wonasworoba moklevadian da saSualovadian
periodebSi 659; devalvaciis mxardamWeri da sawinaaRmdego argumentebi 661
adgilobriv saqonelze moTxovna

590; C, I da G determinantebi 591;
importis determinantebi 591; eqsportis
determinantebi 592; komponentebis
SeerTeba 593
21-2 gacvliTi kursis krizisi fiqsirebuli gacvliTi kursis SemTxvevaSi 663
19-2 wonasworuli gamoSveba da savaWro

balansi 595
21-3 savaluto kursis dinamika moqnili

gacvliTi kursis SemTxvevaSi 670
19-3 adgilobrivi an ucxouri moTxovnis

zrda 596
gacvliTi kursebi da mimdinare angariSi 672; gacvliTi kursebi da mimdinare

da momavali saprocento ganakveTebi
673; gacvliTi kursis cvalebadoba 673
adgilobrivi moTxovnis zrda 597;

ucxouri moTxovnis zrda 599; kidev erTxel fiskaluri politikis Sesaxeb 600
21-4 gacvliT kursis reJimebs Soris arCevani 675
19-4 gaufasureba, savaWro balansi da

gamoSveba 603
erTiani savaluto zona 676; myari mibma,

savaluto sabWoebi da dolarizacia 680;
gaufasureba da savaWro balansi:

marSal-lerneris piroba 604;
gaufasurebis efeqtebi 604; gacvliTi
kursisa da fiskaluri politikis
gaerTianeba 605
danarTi 1: erToblivi moTxovnis gamoyvana fiqsirebuli gacvliTi

kursis SemTxvevisaTvis 688; danarTi 2 realuri gacvliTi kursi,
adgilobrivi da ucxouri realuri
saprocento ganakveTebi 690
19-5 dinamikaze dakvirveba: J-mrudi 607

19.6 danazogi, investicia da savaWro
balansi 610
danarTi: marSal-lerneris pirobis
miReba 621
Tavi
20
gamoSveba, saprocento ganakveTi

da gacvliTi kursi 623
20-1 wonasworoba saqonlis bazarze 624

20-2 wonasworoba finansur bazarze 626
fuli Tu obligaciebi 626; arCevani adgilobriv da ucxour obligaciebs Soris 627
20-3 saqonlisa da finansuri bazrebis

gaerTianeba 630
20-4 politikis efeqtebi Ria ekonomikaSi 634
fiskaluri politikis efeqtebi Ria
ekonomikaSi 634; monetaruli politikis
efeqtebi Ria ekonomikaSi 636
20-5 fiqsirebuli gacvliTi kursi 637

myari mibma, mcocavi mibma, jgufebi,
evropis savaluto sistema da evro 637;
VIII
VIII
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10
paTologiebi 693
Tavi
22
depresiebi da mkveTri
vardna 695
22-1 dezinflacia, deflacia da

likvidurobis xafangi 696
nominaluri saprocento ganakveTi,
realuri saprocento ganakveTi
da mosalodneli inflacia 698;
likvidurobis xafangi 700; gaerTianeba:
likvidurobis xafangi da deflacia 705
22-2 didi depresia 707

danaxarjebis Tavdapirveli vardna
709; nominaluri fulis Semcireba 710;
deflaciis arasasurveli efeqtebi 712;
aRmavloba 713
22-3 iaponuri mkveTri vardna 715

nikeis aRmavloba da vardna 718;
monetaruli da fiskaluri politikis
marcxi 720; iaponiis aRmavloba 722
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Tavi 23
da inflacias 802; inflaciis Targetireba 804; saprocento ganakveTis wesebi 807
maRali inflacia 733
23-1 biujetis deficiti da fulis

Seqmna 735
25-3 federaluri sarezervo sistema moqmedebaSi 810

federaluri sarezervo sistemis uflebamosileba 810; federaluri sarezervo
sistemis struqtura 810; monetaruli politikis instrumentebi 811; politikis
ganxorcieleba 814;
23-2 inflacia da realuri fulis

balansi 738
23-3 deficiti, senioraJi da inflacia 740
nominaluri fulis mudmivi zrdis
SemTxveva 742; dinamika da zrdadi
inflacia 745; hi perinflaciebi da
ekonomikuri aqtiuroba 746
Tavi 26
23-4 rogor mTavrdeba hiperinflacia 746

stabilizaciis programis elementebi 746;
SeiZleba, rom stabilizaciis programebi
CaiSalos? 748; stabilizaciis
danaxarjebi 752
fiskaluri politika:
Sejameba 821
26-1 saxelmwifo biujetis SezRudvebi 823

deficitisa da valis ariTmetika 823; mimdinare da momavali gadasaxadebis Sedareba 826; valis mTlian Sida produqtTan Sefardebis evolucia 830;
23-5 daskvnebi 754
26-2 fiskaluri politikis oTxi sakiTxi 834
ukan politikisken
Tavi 24
rikardos ekvivalenturoba 834; deficiti, gamoSvebis stabilizacia da ciklurad koreqtirebuli deficiti 836;
omebi da deficiti 838; Zalian maRali
valis safrTxeebi 840
759
unda SeizRudon politikis

gamtareblebi? 761
24-1 gaurkvevloba da politika 763

ramdeni ician makroekonomistebma
sinamdvileSi? 763; gaurkvevlobam unda
aiZulos politikis gamtareblebi,
rom ufro naklebi akeTon? 765;
gaurkvevloba da politikis
gamtareblebis SezRudva 768
26-3 amerikis SeerTebuli Statebis biujeti: mimdinare monacemebi da samomavlo perspeqtivebi 843
mimdinare monacemebi 843; saSualovadiani biujetis proeqtebi 847; grZelvadiani periodis problemebi: dabali danazogebi, dabereba da samedicino dacva 849;
24-2 molodinebi da politika 769

mZevlebis ayvana da molaparakebebi
770; kidev erTxel inflaciasa da
umuSevrobaze 770; ndobis mopoveba
772; Tanmimdevruloba da politikis
gamtareblebis SezRudva 775
24-3 politika da politikosebi 776

TamaSebi politikis gamtareblebsa
da amomrCevlebs Soris 776; TamaSebi
politikis gamtareblebs Soris 779;
politika da fiskaluri SezRudvebi 784
Tavi 25
Sejameba 791
25-1 optimaluri inflaciis ganakveTi 793

inflaciis danaxarjebi 793; inflaciis
upiratesobebi 798; optimaluri inflaciis done: mimdinare debatebi 800
25-2 monetaruli politikis formireba 801

fulis zrdis miznobrivi tempebi da diapazonebi 801; davubrundeT fulis zrdasa
Tavi 27
istoria 857
27-1 keinzi da didi depresia 858

27-2 neoklasikuri sinTezi 859
progresi yvela frontze 859; IS-modeli
859; moxmarebis, investiciebisa da fulze
moTxovnis Teoriebi 860; zrdis Teoria
860; makroekonometrikuli modelebi
860; keinzianelebi monetaristebis winaaRmdeg 861
27-3 racionaluri molodinebis kritika 863

racionaluri molodinebis sami Sedegi
864; racionaluri molodinebis integrireba 865
27-4 bolo movlenebi 867

axali klasikuri ekonomikuri Teoria
da realuri saqmiani ciklis Teoria 868;
axali keinzianuri ekonomika 869; zrdis
axali Teoria 870; integrirebisaken 871
27-5 saerTo Sexedulebebi 872

sarCevi
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
IX
9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM
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9/27/2010 1:47:38 PM
Sesavali
am wignis pirveli ori
Tavi makroekonomikur
problemebsa da
Tavi 1
Tavi 2
, -
:
,
.
birTvi
midgomas gagvacnobs.
M01_BL
msoflios garSemo
aris makroekonomika? am kiTxvaze sapasuxod umjobesia ara raime formaluri gansazRvrebis Camoyalibeba, aramed msoflios garSemo ekonomikuri turis mowyoba,
romlis mizani ekonomikuri ganviTarebis mTavari problemebis aRweraa, romlebic
aiZulebs makroekonomistebsa da politikosebs RamiTac mudmivad fxizlobdnen.
am striqonebis weris dros (2007 wlis Sua periodSi) SeiZleboda gvefiqra, rom maT mSvidad
Zili SeeZloT. 2000-iani wlebis dasawyisidan adgili hqonda msoflio ekonomikis mdgrad ganviTarebas. msoflio gamoSvebis zrdis tempma 2006 wlisaTvis daaxloebiT 5% Seadgina, rac yvelaze
maRali maCvenebeli iyo. aSS-Si 2001 wlis recesiam xangrZliv aRmavlobas dauTmo gza. evropaSic
amaRlda ekonomikuri zrda, Tumca SenarCunda maRali umuSevroba. yvelaze STambeWdav ekonomikur zrdas adgili hqonda Rarib qveynebSi, gansakuTrebiT, CineTsa da indoeTSi, sadac zrdis
tempis wliurma maCvenebelma 10%-s miaRwia.
miuxedavad amisa makroekonomistebi mainc pouloben SeSfoTebis mizezebs (bolos da bolos,
es xom maTi samuSaoa). isini SeSfoTebulebi arian, rom aSS-is warmoebis gafarToeba SeiZleba
swrafad gadaizardos recesiaSi da wuxan, rom evropa ver SeZlebs umuSevrobis Semcirebas. maT
uCndebaT eWvi CineTis ekonomikis zrdis wyaroebis Taobaze da fiqroben, rom SesaZloa aRniSnuli zrda arasicocxlisunariani aRmoCndes.
am TavSi Cemi mizania, gagacnoT aRniSnuli ganviTarebisa da problemebis arsi, romlebic dgas
makroekonomistebis winaSe dReisaTvis. ar arsebobs imis saSualeba, rom SevZlo gamogzauroT
srulad msoflios garSemo, magram SegiqmniT warmodgenas imis Sesaxeb, Tu ra moxdeba aSS-Si,
evropasa da CineTSi:
ra
1.1 paragrafSi ganxilulia aSS;
1.2 paragrafSi - evropa;
1.3 paragrafSi - CineTi;
1.4 paragrafSi mocemulia daskvnebi da momavlis xedva.
waikiTxeT es Tavi ise, TiTqos sagazeTo statias kiTxulobdeT. nu SewuxdebiT sityvebis zust
mniSvnelobebze an yvela argumentis dawvrilebiT zustad gagebaze: sityvebi aucileblad ganimarteba, argumentebic ufro daixveweba momdevno TavebSi. yovelive es SeafaseT, rogorc foni,
romlis daniSnulebaa makroekonomikuri problemebis warmodgena. Tuki isiamovnebT am Tavis
kiTxviT, SesaZloa isiamovnoT mTlianad am wignis wakiTxviTac. wignis wakiTxvisTanave kvlav
daubrundiT am Tavs da gansajeT, Tu ra warmatebas miaRwieT makroekonomikis SeswavliT.
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 3
9/27/2010 1:47:35 PM
nax.1 - 1
amerikis SeerTebuli Statebi
2006 .
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2006
2007
2008
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3,4%
3,3%
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5,0%
4,6%
4,6%
4,8%
4,0%
2,0%
2,9%
2,6%
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1-1
: () .
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: OECD Economic Outlook database, , 2007.
44
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 12
10
4
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9/27/2010
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9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM
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M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 12
10
makroekonomika
9/27/2010 1:47:38 PM
M01_BL
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47:38
PM 6
nax. 1 - 2
saaTSi gamoSvebis moculobis zrdis tempi

aSS-Si 1970 wlidan
3

, , 1990
.
2
1970
1974
1978
1982
1986
1990
1994
1998
2002
2006
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M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
(1.01)201.0=22%;
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1.0=64%.
2.
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.
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.
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9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM
9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM
SemaSfoTebelia Tu ara aSS-is savaWro balansi?

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, .
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, 6% .
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nax. 1 - 3
aSS-is savaWro deficiti 1990 wlidan
1990 1%- 2006 6% - .
7
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
88
makroekonomika
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 7
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 12
10
9/27/2010 1:47:38 PM
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M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
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9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM
1. 2
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2007
2008
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: ( ) . : . :
( ) .
: OECD Economical Outlook database.
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 8
10
10
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 12
10
9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM
makroekonomika
9/27/2010 1:47:38 PM
M01_BL
47:38 PM
gamoSveba 2006 wels: $ 14.1 trln.

mosaxleoba: 496 mln. adamiani
gamoSveba erT adamianze: $ 28 400
EU 27:
2003
mosaxleoba
gamoSveba
gamoSveba
erT
(mln.adamiani)
$ trilioni
adamianze
$
germania
$ 2.9
82.4
$ 5,200
safrangeTi
2.2
63.4
34,700
italia
1.8
58.7
30,700
espaneTi
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45.0
26,700
gaerTianebuli
2.3
60.2
38,200
samefo
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fineTi
estoneTi
latvia
litva
irlandia
holandia
belgia
poloneTi
germania
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luqsemburgi
slovakia
avstria
safrangeTi
ungreTi
rumineTi
italia
bulgareTi
espaneTi
saberZneTi
portugalia
slovenia
malta
kviprosi
nax. 1 - 4
evrokavSiri
Tavi 1
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
msoflios garSemo
11
9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM
1996- 2006
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arsebuli umuSevroba?

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12
12
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 12
10
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9/27/2010 1:47:38 PM
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12

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10
,
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1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006
Tavi 1
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
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13
9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM
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12
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 10
9/27/2010 1:47:38 PM
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M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
msoflios garSemo
15
9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM
1. 3
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16
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 12
10
makroekonomika
9/27/2010 1:47:38 PM
M01_BL
47:38 PM
nax. 1 - 6
CineTi, 2006
gamoSveba: $ 2.8 trln.
mosaxleoba:1.32 mlrd.
adamiani
gamoSveba erT adamianze:
$ 2 100
CineTi
- 1980
- . 1980
10%-
.
. 3,1%-, ! 10%- 7 .
.
; ,
? ,

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, ? , .
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1-3
19802006
19962006
2006
2007
2008
9.3%
8.8%
10.7%
10.0%
9.5%
5.4%
3.3%
1.5%
2.5%
2.2%
: ( ) . : ( ) .
: IMF World Economic Outlook database.
Tavi 1
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 13
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
msoflios garSemo
17
9/27/2010 1:47:39 PM
9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM
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M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 15
5
msoflios garSemo
19
9/27/2010
9/27/2010 1:47:39
1:47:37PM
PM
1. 4
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M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 16
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msoflios garSemo
21
9/27/2010 1:47:40 PM
9/27/2010 1:47:40 PM
9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM
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1996 2006 2,8%- .

M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 16
:
. , 1,8%- .
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? 20 ? 50 ?
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22
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 12
16
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9/27/2010 1:47:40 PM
6. -
40 .
-
1960 2006
: www.bea.gov.
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, NIPA 1.1.6 - ). 2000 . .

1960- 2006 .
? (
makroekonomika
makroekonomika
9/27/2010 1:47:38
1:47:40 PM
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M01_BL

) :
. - 1970 ?
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?
.
?
2001 2002

. , ,
2001 . , (NBER
National bureau of Economic Research),
, 2001 .
7. -6 , , -
1970
.
- www.bls.gov.
A ( A.1-).
1970
2006 . , :
. 1970
.
?

? ?
. ?
, 2001 2002
?
Prentice Hall- :
www.prenhall.com/blanchard
47:40 PM
47:38
47:40 PM
damatebiT wasakiTxi

(www.prenhall.com/blanchard),
.

. .
Tavi 1
5 17

(The Economist) , .
, , .
( .
).
msoflios garSemo
23
9/27/2010
1:47:40
9/27/2010
1:47:37
PM PM
danarTi:
sad movZebnoT monacemebi
,
, , - 1959 1980- .
, , ,

,
(www.
economist.com). - , -
, .

.
- National Economic
Trends ,
- (www.research.stlouisfed.org/publications/net/).
, , (Survey of Current Business),

(Bureau
of Economic Analysis www.bea.gov)
.
, 2006 .
.
, .
24
24
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 12
10

,
- (Government Printing Office) ,
, , 1950
( www.gpoaccess.gov/eop/.).

- , 1, 1929-1958 2, 1959-1994
, -
, (www.bea.gov) .
,
-
(Statistical Abstract of the United
States), -
(www.census.gov/prod/www/
statistical-abstract.html).

OCED (www.oecd.org) (
). OECD , :
OCED Economic Outlook, .

. ,
, 1980
,
. CD-ROM-,
OCED- -
makroekonomika
9/27/2010 1:47:38 PM
M01_BL
47:38 PM
1960 .
OCED- .
OECD Employment Outlook ( ), . .
OECD
. 1970 2000
, 2001
.
(IMF, , DC) ,

(www.imf.org).
World Economic Outlook
, . ,
,

(www.inf.org/external/data.html).

-
- , 1970
, 1 2,
-
(www.census.gov/prod/www/abs/statab.html).
Angus
Maddisons Monitoring the World Economy, 18201992 (

) , OECD, , 1995. , 1820
, 56 . The World
Economy. A Millenial Perspective, Development
Studies, OECD, 2001, The World Economy:
Historical Statistics, Development Studies, OECD
2004, .

.
,
:
,
(www.
morganstanley.com/views/index.html).
- RGE,
(Nouriel Roubini)
(www.rgemonitor.com), ().
,
, ,
(Bill Goffe) ,
- (www.rfe.org),
,
,
, , .
Tavi 1
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
msoflios garSemo
25
9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM
ityvebi: gamoSveba, umuSevroba da inflacia yoveldRiurad Cndeba gazeTebis furclebze da saRamos axal ambebSi. roca es sityvebi pirvel TavSi
gamoviyeneT, Tqven miaxloebiT icodiT imis Sesaxeb, Tu raze vsaubrobdi.
axla es terminebi zustad unda ganvsazRvroT, rasac gavakeTeb kidec am Tavis pirvel or nawilSi.
2.1 nawilSi yuradReba erTobliv gamoSvebaze maxvildeba. aqve naCvenebia, Tu

rogor SegviZlia ganvixiloT erToblivi gamoSveba warmoebis da Semosavlebis mixedviT.
2.2 nawilSi ganixileba umuSevrobisa da inflaciis done.
2.3 nawilSi warmodgenilia sami centraluri cneba, romelTa garSemoc agebulia mocemuli wigni.
moklevadiani periodi - ra xdeba ekonomikaSi wlidan wlamde.
saSualovadiani periodi - ra moxdeba ekonomikaSi aTi wlis Semdeg an

am periodis ganmavlobaSi.
grZelvadiani periodi - ra moxdeba ekonomikaSi naxevari saukunis an

ufro meti xnis ganmavlobaSi.
wignis 2.4 nawili am sam cnebas emyareba da warmoadgens wignis momdevno

Tavebis gzamkvlevs.
Tavi 2
wignis garSemo
27
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 3
9/27/2010 1:47:35 PM
2.1

(Simon Kuznets)
(Richard Stone) ,

erToblivi gamoSveba
, , (
) , .
,
.
(, , ). - 1947
( , ).
,
, .
,
, , .
.
.
. , ,
,
1 , - (
). , .

,
GNP-.
GNP
-. , ,

.
-18
(, ,
1-) .
,
.

1 . , , , ,
. ,
:
28
28
makroekonomika
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 12
10
mTliani Sida produqti: warmoeba da Semosavali
1

GDP. ,
. ,
, .
(
).
9/27/2010 1:47:38 PM
M01_BL
47:38 PM
1 , . 100
2-, . 1 80 20 .
2 - . 200 . 200 100

, 70 , 30
.
( 1)
( 2)
$100
$ 80
$ 80
$ 20
, -,
, ,
..
.
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$170
$ 70
$100
$ 30
,
100 200
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.
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Tavi 2
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
wignis garSemo
29
9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM
. :

()
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$150
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, 200 , 150 ($80+$70=$150) 50 ($20+$30=$50). 200 , .

, .
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.
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, . ,

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, $100+$100=$200 (, ,
. , ,
30
30
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 12
10
makroekonomika
9/27/2010 1:47:38 PM
M01_BL
47:38 PM

, ,
200 ).
. ,
(
) ,

( ).
.
. , . ;
, .
1960 2006
2-1
1960
2006
66%
64%
26%
29%
8%
7%
: Survey of Current Business, , 2007
100 ,
, 80 ( ), 20 ( ). 100 ,
, 70 , 30 . 150 ($80+$70),
50 ($20+$30) .
200 ($150+$50) .
.
3. .

75%-, 25%- . 2.1
- 1960 2006 . Tavi 2
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
wignis garSemo
31
9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM
,
:
1.
, ( ) (
) .
2.

.
, .
, ( , ).
, -
64%-, 29%. 7%-. 1960
.
: ,
:

,
;

;

.
nominaluri da realuri mTliani Sida produqti
: ,
.

,
. , ,
:
,
,
.
32
32
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 12
10
- 2006 13 246 , 1960 526 . -

2006 1960 25- ? , : ,
.

.

. ,
:
;
.

, .
, , ( )
.
makroekonomika
9/27/2010 1:47:38 PM
M01_BL
47:38 PM

,
:
. .
, :
, , , . :
1999
2000
2001
10
12
13
$20,000
$24,000
$26,000

$200,000
$288,000
$338,000

(2000 $-)
$240,000
$288,000
$312,000
, , 1999 $200000- $288000- 2000 ( 44%-) 2000

$288000- $338000- 2001 ( 17%-).
. , 2000 .
2000 .
, 1999 (2000 ) 10 X $24000
= $240000. 2000
(2000 ) 12 X $24000
= $288000,
. 2001
(2000 ) 13 X $24000 = $312000. ,
1999 $240000-
2000 $288000- 20%-, 2000
$288000- 2001 $312000- 8%-.
,
, , 2000 ,
2001 ? ,

( 2001 2000 ),
.
, .
Tavi 2
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
wignis garSemo
, ,
2001

1999 2000 2000
2001 .
33
9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM
, , .
, , . , ,

. : ,
? , ,
?
, - , .
, , -
, . ,
2000 (2000 ,
2000 ,
). -
, - .
,

2006
, 2000
.
. 2.1
1960 .
2000 . ,
2006 4,5- 1960 . , (2006
25- 1960
).
.

, , :
, ,
.
, ,
, , , , 2000 ,
2000 , -.
, :
34
34
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 12
10
makroekonomika
9/27/2010 1:47:38 PM
M01_BL
47:38 PM
nax. 2 - 1
aSS-is nominaluri
da realuri mTliani
Sida produqti 1960
wlidan
14000
12000
1960 2006

25-,
4,5- .
10000

8000
6000
4000
2000
0
1960 1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005

Yt t .
, , ,
, $Yt t .
mTliani Sida produqti: moculoba Tu zrdis tempi

. ,
. ,
,
. , .
, , ,
.
(), .
- 1960 . 2.2-. t : (Yt Yt-1)/Yt-1. ,
Tavi 2
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
wignis garSemo
35
9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM
CanarTi
realuri mTliani Sida produqti,

da kompiuterebis fasebi

,
. -
. , 2007
,
1981 (, IBM PC ):
2007 , 1981 . ,
? 2007 10-, 100-
1000- 1981 ? ,
, ,
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,
, ,

. , , ,
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,
1996 , 50 16 MHz-. ).
, 3 GHz-
2 GHz- . ,

-
- ,
. 15
. , 1990- 1992 2000
. 2001 , .
- .
. 2.2- . , 2001 ,
2001 ? ,
, . . , ,

. , 2001 ,
. , 2001 , () .
36
36
MP 93:74:1 0102/72/9
12
10
makroekonomika
51 fdp.10C9/27/2010
_ES_50_0921:47:38
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_10M
M01_BLA
M01_BL
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1,1826 = 74-
,
1981 .
,
,
: , , 1981
10%- .
,

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, 1,2826=613- ,
1981
.
CanarTi
. ,
, ,
10%- ,
.
, , ..
,
( ).
, ,

, .

nax. 2 - 2
7
aSS-is mTliani Sida produqtis zrdis

tempi 1960 wlidan
6
5
1960 - ,
.
4
3
2
1
0
-1
-2
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
Tavi 2
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 15
5
2005
wignis garSemo
37
9/27/2010
9/27/2010 1:47:39
1:47:37PM
PM
2.2
sxva mniSvnelovani
makroekonomikuri maCveneblebi
, .
.
umuSevrobis done
: , ; ,
, .
.
L
=
N
+
U
= +
1 :
U
u=
L
= /
,
. , . ,
, . ,

: , ,
. .
- 1940
, ,

, (unemployment rate)
rate . ,
, ,
,
,
, .
. (level)
( , . ..) .
,
,
(, ,
. .) ( ).
1
38
38
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 12
10
makroekonomika
9/27/2010 1:47:38 PM
M01_BL
47:38 PM
, . .
, , . ,
,
,
,
. , , , ,
.
, . -
(CPS). 50000
. ,
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, ,
, ; ,
, . ,
. , . :
,
.
Tavi 2
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
wignis garSemo
39
9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM
1990- ,

, , ,
.
1990 70%-

,
,
,
.
. , . ,
,
, , , . , , , , .
. 2.2 - 1960 .
1960 - 3%- 10%- . 1980-
(1982 9,7%-)
1990- (2000 3,9%-).
ratom awuxebT ekonomistebs umuSevroba?

.

, , ,
.
40
40
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 12
10
, . , ,
,
. -
,
. ,
, - . - (, 25 30%)
. - ( , )

, .
, ,
. , ,
; .
, , , ? . , ,
,
. ? , . - 2000 . 2000
,
4%- . ,
makroekonomika
9/27/2010 1:47:38 PM
M01_BL
47:38 PM
10
nax. 2 - 3
umuSevrobis done
aSS-Si 1960 wlidan
1960 -
3%- 10%-,

.
2
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
, ( )
, . , , :
.
,
, ,
.
inflaciis done
.
, . , .
.
. , , , .
, .
1990-
.
mTliani Sida produqtis deflatori

,
.
, ,
, , .
Tavi 2
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
wignis garSemo
41
9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM
CanarTi
marTla hqonda Tu ara espaneTs 1994 wels

umuSevrobis 24%-iani done?
1-,
100- ( ).

(.
1), ,
,
B3,
100- 2000 () , 100,5- 2001
..
42
42
MP 93:74:1 0102/72/9
12
10
1994 24%- (
, 2007 8%- ). , - 1933
, . , 1994
1933 -:
.
, ?
,
. , -, . , , .
, ? . , ,
,
.
, ,
, , ,
, . ,
, . 1985 60000 .

, . . , , ,

. t , Pt ,
t :
Pt =
$Yt
Yt
, , ( , 2000
-), 1- . makroekonomika
51 fdp.10C9/27/2010
_ES_50_0921:47:38
8NALBPM
_10M
M01_BLA
M01_BL
ALBPM
_10M
47:38
: .

2000 1-
. , (Pt Pt-1)/Pt-1,
:
.
, ,
, ,
. ,
, :
Tavi 2
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 15
5
wignis garSemo
CanarTi
, 10-15% . ,
, ,
. ,
15% . ,
, 21% , 18%-
, , . ,
, ,
.
? , ? .
,
, , (OECD) .
, , 70%-
60%- . 4- 24
, . 30%, , .
, ? . : 1994
50%- 16- 19
40%- 20- 24 . , ,
20 , . , , , , 1994 10%- ; ,
, 3%- .
,
, .
2.1
2000 , , .

1999- 2000 2000 2001 .
43
9/27/2010
9/27/2010 1:47:39
1:47:37PM
PM
$Yt = PY
t t
, . 2, 7.

. ,

.
samomxmareblo fasebis indeqsi

. ,
, , .
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:
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PPI-, ,
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. , , , 10
.
(BLS)
, , . 87 , 23000 ,
, , ..
.
,
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44
44
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M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 12
10
9/27/2010 1:47:38 PM
M01_BL
47:38 PM
(
)
, ) , . , , 1-
, ,
. 1982-1984 ,
100- . 2006
201,6 . , 2006
, 1982-1984 .
, . . 2.4 ,
1960 -.
:
, ,
,

1-, 100- .
CPI
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
nax. 2 - 4
samomxmareblo fasebis indeqsisa da mTliani Sida produqtis
deflatoris gamoyenebiT gamoTvlili inflaciis done aSS-Si 1960 wlidan

.
Tavi 2
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
wignis garSemo
45
9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM
: ,
1999

. :

. 1
.
: 1979 1980
,
. . , - , ,
-
. , , , - , ,
. 1979 1980
, . ,
,
, :
. .
, , , . , , Pt , ,
,
.
ratom awuxebT ekonomistebs inflacia?

, , ,
.
, , , , . 10%-
10%- . 10%
. , : . ,
-
.
? ,
, :
46
46
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 12
10
makroekonomika
9/27/2010 1:47:38 PM
M01_BL
47:38 PM

. , . , , ,
,
. -, CPI- ,
. 1990- ,
.
. ,
, .
. . ,
, , .
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; :
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: , . , , ,
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?
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M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
wignis garSemo
, . - , ,
: 5%-, 5%- , , .

.
, .

, .
- , .

22- .
47
9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM
2.3
mokle-, saSualo- da
grZelvadiani periodebi
: . , : . .

. ,
, .
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48
48
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 12
10
makroekonomika
9/27/2010 1:47:38 PM
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47:38 PM
, , , . , , .
,
(), () .
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, , : ,
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, .
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2.4
wignis garSemo
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. . 2.5-.
, .
birTvi
: -, -
:
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.
Tavi 2
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
wignis garSemo
49
9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM
nax. 2 - 5
Sesavali
msoflios garSemo (Tavi 1)
wignis garSemo (Tavi 2)
wignis agebuleba
birTvi
Tavi 14 - 17
moklevadiani periodi (IS - LM)

Tavi 3 - 5
saSualovadiani periodi (AD - AS)
Tavi 6 - 9
Tavi 22 - 23
grZelvadiani periodi
Tavi 10 - 13

Tavi 18 - 21
politikisken dabruneba
Tavi 24- 26
epilogi
Tavi 27
50
50
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 12
10
-3 ; -4
; -5 . , IS-LM . IS-LM , 1930- ,

.
.
-6 -9 ,
.
-6 ; -7 , ,
- .
, -7 , (AD-AS) ;
-8 -9 ,
AD-AS , - .
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9/27/2010 1:47:38 PM
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47:38 PM
-10 -13 .
-10 . -11
-12 .
-13 ,
.
analizis gafarToeba
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, 14- 23- () :
() ,
.
, , - , , , , , , .. .
, , . -14
-17
.
() , , . ,
,
. ,
.
-18-21 .
() - .
, , , ,
,
Tavi 2
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
wignis garSemo
51
9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM
, ;
, 1990-
. 22-
23- .
ukan politikisaken

. , , , :
24- ,
, , ,
.
25- 26- .
epilogi
. . , 27-
, , . , ,
, , , ..
. ,
, () . , ,
, .
52
52
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 12
10
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M01
M01_BL
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Sejameba

, , : (1)

,
; (2)
; (3)
.

. ,

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sakvanZo terminebi

, 28
, 28
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(), 28
, 29
, 29
, 30
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, 32
2000
, 33
, , 34
, ,
, , , 2000
, 34
,
35
, 35
, 35
Tavi 2
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 16
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
wignis garSemo
53
9/27/2010 1:47:40 PM
9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM
, 35
, 36
, 38
, 38
, 38
, 38

(CPS), 39
, 39
, 39

, 40
, 41
, 41
, 41
, 41
, 42

, 42
, 43
, 44

(CPI),44
, 49
, 49
, 49
, 58

1.
, . .
. , ;
. - 25- 2006 , 1960 ;
. , ;
.
, ;
. 108- ,
- 104-, ,
-;
. ,
;
. ; , 54
54
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 16
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 12
10
, , , ,

.
2. , -

.
:
. 100 ;
. 100
;
. - 200 ;
.

200 ;
. - -
100 .
3.
:
I. 200 000 75 -
makroekonomika
9/27/2010 1:47:40 PM
9/27/2010 1:47:38 PM
M01
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0 PM
47:38 PM
.
300 000
;
II.
250 000
,
1 000 000 .
.
,
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:
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. 2006 , 2006 2007
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;
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;
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. 2006 2007 ,

;
.
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?
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. -4 -5 (..
, , ) (
.
).
Tavi 2
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wignis garSemo
55
9/27/2010 1:47:40 PM
9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM
7.
,
, .
. ,
() :
. . ,
.

. , .
, ,
, . ,
,
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).
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) ?
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( ).
1
56
56
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 16
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 12
10
makroekonomika
9/27/2010 1:47:40 PM
9/27/2010 1:47:38 PM
M01
M01_BL
0 PM
47:38 PM

9. 2001
www.bea.gov NIPA-
1.1.6 (NIPA
). ,
2000 :
.
1999- 2002 . ?
www.bls.gov. , ,
1994-
2004 . ,
.
,
(
);
. 2001
? ,

?

?
?
. ,
.
2001 2001 ? ?
. (NBER), , 2001 . ,
NBER- , 2001
. ()
() , , ,

? .
NBER- , www.
nber.org. .
, Prentice Hall- :
Tavi 2
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M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
wignis garSemo
57
9/27/2010 1:47:40 PM
9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM
damatebiT wasakiTxi
(

)
, :
The Guide to Economic Indicators, 3rd edition, by

Norman Frumkin, M.E. Sharpe, New York, 2000.
The Economist Guide to Economic Indicators, 6th
edition, by the staff of The Economist, Bloomberg,
New York, 2007.
1995 ,
.
,

1%- . , , ,
( )
1%- ,
58
58
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 16
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 12
10
.

, Consumer Prices, the Consumer Price
Index, and the Cost of Living, by Michael Boskin
et al, Journal of Economic Perspectives, Volume 12,
Number 1, Winter 1998, 3 26.
() : GDP: One of the Great Inventions of
the 20th Century Survey of Current Business,
2000, 1 9 (www.bea.gov/bea/articles/
beawide/2000/0100od.pdf).

What we dont know could hurt us; Some Reflections on the measurement of Economic Activity
Katherine Abraham, Journal of Economic Perspectives, Volume9, Number 3, 3 18. ,
, Viagra and the
Wealth of Nations, Paul Krugman, 1998 (www.
pkarcive.org/theory/viagra.html) (
- ).
makroekonomika
9/27/2010 1:47:40 PM
9/27/2010 1:47:38 PM
M01_BL
0 PM
47:38 PM
danarTi:
realuri mTliani Sida produqtisa da jaWvuri tipis indeqsebis

konstruqcia
, ,
,
. ,

,
?
.
, , ,
. ,
, .
, :
0 10 , 1 5
, 2 .
1 15 ,
1 5 , 3 .
0 20 , 1 30 .

:
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()
()

10
5
1
2
$
10
10
20
()
()

- 0
$
15
5
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$
1
3
$
15
15
30

0- 1 ($30
$20)/$20=50%. ,
?
.
: .
, , 0 . .
:
0
0 : (10$1)+(5$2)= $20.
1 0 : (15$1)+(5$2)= $25.

0- 1 : ($25 $20)/
$20, 25%-.
:
, 0 ,
. , , :
0 (10$1+5$3)= $25;
1 (15$1+5$3)=30$;

0 1
$5/$25, 20%-.
, 1 , , 0 .
,
Tavi 2
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
wignis garSemo
59
9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM

?
1990- -
( ), , . , - 1987
,
1991 1995 . , , ,
1994 , 1994- 1987 . 1995
1992 ,
; 1992
.

. , ,
. , , !
1995 , (BEA)
,

, .
:
1. t t+1
: t
, t+1
.
, 2006 2007 :
60
60
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 12
10
. 2006 , , 2006
2007 , 2006-
2007
;
. 2007 , , 2006
2007 , 2006-
2007
.
2. ,
.
3.
().

1- . ,
, 2000 .
, 2000- 2001
0,7%-, 2001
(1+0,07%)=1,07.
2002 2001
2001- 2002-
.. (
100-
B3
. , 2000
100, 2001 100,7 ..).
4. 2000 , , 2000 .
2000 1- ,
,
2000 .
makroekonomika
9/27/2010 1:47:38 PM
M01_BL
47:38 PM

,
(2000 B2
).
,
,
1995 ( ,
,
0 1
), :
, , , ;

,
,
,
.
( , :
www.bea.gov/scb/pdf/NATIONAL/ NIPA/1995/0795od.pdf.)
Tavi 2
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wignis garSemo
61
9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM
moklevadian periodSi
gamoSvebas moTxovna
gansazRvravs. moTxovnaze
gavlenas, momxmareblis
ndobidan dawyebuli,
fiskaluri da monetaruli
politikiT damTavrebuli.
Tavi 3
Tavi 4
Tavi 5
-3
-4
-5 -
, -
; -
; -
. -5
IS-LM
- -
birTvi
uamravi faqtori axdens
63
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M01_BL
saqonlis bazari
saqonelze moTxovnis cvlilebebs warmoebis cvlilebebamde mivyavarT;
warmoebis cvlilebebi Semosavlis cvlilebebs iwvevs;
SemosavalSi cvlilebebi saqonelze moTxovnis cvlilebebs ganapirobebs.
amaze saukeTeso warmodgenas Semdegi karikatura Segviqmnis:
Tavi 3
oca ekonomistebi ekonomikuri aqtiurobis wlidan wlamde cvlilebebze fiqroben, yuradRebas warmoebas, Semosavalsa da moTxovnas Soris arsebul urTierTdamokidebulebaze amaxvileben
65
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 3
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es Tavi am urTierTkavSirebs, maT arssa da mniSvnelobas exeba:
3.1 nawilSi mTliani Sida produqtis Semadgenlobasa da

saqonelze moTxovnis gansxvavebul wyaroebs gavecnobiT;
3.2 nawilSi saqonelze moTxovnis determinantebs gavecnobiT;
3.3 nawili gviCvenebs, Tu rogoraa gansazRvruli wonasworuli

gamoSveba warmoebisa da saqonelze moTxovnis tolobiT;
3.4 nawili gviCvenebs alternatiul gzas, wonasworoba warmovidginoT,

rogorc investiciebisa da danazogebis tolobis Sedegi;
3.5 nawili wonasworul gamoSvebaze fiskaluri politikis

gavlenis Seswavlis Sesavalia.
3.1
mTliani Sida produqtis

Semadgenloba
.
.
,
.
- , , . ,
, ( )
, .

, General Motors-
Motors- .
, :
-,
()
-
()
. General
Motors-
Motors
-
,
.

3.1- ( ,
, , 1- ):
66
66
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 12
10
( C ). , , , ,
, .
, , . 2000
70%- .
(II), , ( ).
- (,
makroekonomika
9/27/2010 1:47:38 PM
M01_BL
47:38 PM
)
.
,
, ,
. - , .
. , , . , . , 2006
16,3 %- .
(G)
(G), ,
. . :
,
,
.
, G
( ) .
, , , .
, 3.1- , 19 , , . 2006
31% .
1, 2 3 - ,

. , -
, :
, 1, 2 3 (IM)
(IM), - ,
.
, (X),
.
(X-IM) ,
. , , ,
, , Tavi 3
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
saqonlis bazari
67
9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM
>

<
. 2006 -
11,0 , 16,8 . ,
5,8 .
cxrili 3 - 1
- 2006

1
2
3
4
, ,

=
-
= +
= -
(Y )
( C )
( I )
(G )

( X )
(IM )

13,246
9,269
2,163

100.0
70.0
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1,396
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. 2006 , :
, .
, . ,
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, .
, , ,
. 2006 , 49 ,
49 .
,
.
3.2
saqonelze moTxovna
Z- . 3.1
Z , :
Z C + I + G + X - IM
68
68
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10
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(
). Z- , , ,
.
Z- . :
, ,
, . ,
, , .
, , (P)
. ,
, . ,
. , ( -6 ), . .
, , : . ,
. (-18 ) , ,
. , ,
.
( ),
, ,
.
, X = IM = 0, , :
Z C + I +G
, - :
moxmareba (C)
, ,
(Y
( D), , , . , ,
Tavi 3
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saqonlis bazari
69
9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM
, , .
C , (YD)- .
:
C = C(YD )
(+)
(3.1)
, , C, , YD, . C(YD) ,
. YD- , ,
, . , , ,
, , .

. , , , 2- . . :
, , , .
,
. , :
C = c0 + c1YD
(3.2)
, ,
. : c0 c1 .
70
70
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 12
10
c1 ( . ). ,
.
c1 0,6-, $1 0,6 = 60 .
, c1 : , , .
, c1 1- : , .
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c0 . ,
,
0- : (3.2) YD 0-,
C = c0.
, 0- ,
: ,
, !
, c0 . , , ? : .
.
(3.2)
. 3.1-.
, , . c0-,
c1- . c1 1- ,
1- : , 450- (, 2-).
. c0 c1?
nax. 3 - 1
, C
moxmareba da gankargvadi Semosavali
c0
c0
c1YD
c1
,YD
YD .
:
YD Y-T,
Y , T . , T- , ,
. Tavi 3
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saqonlis bazari
71
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-

. : ,
(, ..
Medicare,

Medicaid, ).
2006
2,3 ,
1,6
.
, , .
(3.2) YD .
C = c0 + c1 (Y - T)
(3.3) , , C, , Y,
, T, . , , ;
, , .
investiciebi (I)
. . .
,
. . , , :
I=I

, .
(3.3)
(3.4)
, .
, . . ,
, , .
,
: , , -, .
, -5 .
saxelmwifo danaxarjebi (G)

,
.
, G. , T, , . -
72
72
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10
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, G - T - , .
, , G T , .
:
, ,
. G - T - ,
, , , (
. , ,
, . 24- 26-
).
, -
. , :
G - T - ,
. G T ,

.
3.3
, ( )
G-
T-
, ,
.
.
wonasworuli gamoSvebis
gansazRvra
, , .
,
, :
ZC+I+G
C - I - (3.3) (3.4) .
:
Z = c0 + c1 (Y T ) + I + G
(3.5)
, Z, , Y, , T, , , , G.

. ,
. , .
. ,
, . ,
Tavi 3
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saqonlis bazari
,

.

? ,
.
73
9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM
.
, , Y, , Z,
Y=Z
(3.6)
. : ,
. : , , .
, ,
, .
(3.6) , Z, (3.5) , :
Y = c0 + c1 (Y - T)+ I + G
(3.7)
(3.7) , :

.
, , Y, ( ) ( ) . , , , Y, , , .
,
, Y, . ! , , .
.
, ,
, , . ,
, .
, , ,
, . :
1.
, , ;
2.
, ;
3.
, .
.
74
74
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10
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algebris gamoyeneba
(3.7) :
Y = c0 + c1Y - c1T + I + G
c1Y :
(1 - c1 )Y = c0 + I + G - c1T
(1-c1)-:
Y=
1
[c0 + I + G - c1T]
1 - c1
(3.8)
(3.8)
, . ,
. :
c0 + I + G c1T , . .
, ? , .
0 . G- c1T-, , , .
T=G (c1) 1- ( ), (G c1T) ,
. , , .
.
1/(1 c1) - . , (c1) , 1/(1 c1) 1- . ,
, . c1 , .
? , , . , , (3.3) c0
1 . (3.8) , 1
. , c1 0,6, 1/(1 0,6) = 1/0,4 = 2,5-. ,
2,5$1 = 2,5 .
Tavi 3
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saqonlis bazari
T = G, (G-c1T)
= (T-c1T) = (1-c1 ) T > 0.
75
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, (3.8) , ,
:
, .
? (3.7)
, : c0-
; , (, ).
.. . , .
grafikis gamoyeneba
, :
, , .
. 3.2- , . , , . ,
.
450- , 1-
.
, , .
(3.5) . , , , :
Z = (c0 + I + G - c1T)+ c1Y
(3.9)
, .
ZZ
.
.
, c1. 1- , c1-
. , c1 , 1- ,
, 1- .
76
76
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10
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nax. 3 - 2
wonasworoba
lis bazarze
Z, Y
ZZ
A
saqon-
,
.
c1
:
Y Z
45
Y
, Y
.
Y 450- . A . A-
,
. A
.
, A ,
Y- .
, co 1 . ( , A ) 1 . , . 3.3 - , . 3.2 - .
(3.9) , 1 . co - ZZ
. c0 - , ZZ - ZZ , 1 .
, 1
. 450- A .
Y- Y- . (Y - Y), , Tavi 3
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77
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. Y- Y-

A-
B- ,
$ 1 .
,
, 1-
. .
, ,
- -.
1 . Y B ,
1 . ,
, 1
. 1 , 1 (,
), , C ( , , 1 ),
.
. - . - , A- ,
. .
:
. 3.3- AB 1 ;
nax. 3 - 3
ZZ
Z, Y
avtonomiuri danaxarjebis gavlena gamoSvebaze
$1
ZZ
45
Y
, Y
78
78
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10
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(1 ) , AB
;
,
BC 1 ;
CD
1 ( )
, c1, , , c1 ;
c1 , CD
, DE ;
, c1
( ) c1-,
, : $ c1 X c1 = $ c12 ..
, , , n+1 , 1 :
1 + c1 + c1 2 + ... + c1 n
.
. , -2 . , ,
c1 ( ) n , , . 1/(1
c1 ), 1/(1 c1 )
.
1/(1 c1) : , .

.
, , , , ,
..
.
:
,
.
, c1, ,
1- ?
msjelobiT
, ?
,
, , , .
, ,
. , Tavi 3
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saqonlis bazari
79
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.. , , .
: ,
. ? , , ,
. ,
, -3 . ,
. ,

0,6- . ,
, , 60 . , 1/ (1 c1 ) = 1/ (1 0,6) = 2,5- .
ramdeni dro sWirdeba gamoSvebis

SesabamisobaSi moyvanas?
, . , c0
1 . , 1/(1 c1)-
1 . ,
, , ?
,
, ,
, , ,
.
80
80
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 12
10
, , : ! (3.6) ,
. ,
. (3.2) , . , . 3.3 -
A A :
,
,
..

: ,
,
. , , . ,
.
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, , .
:
, .

. , , , .
, , c0 - . , , , ,
, ,
, . , .
, , , , .

. ,
..
, , , Y - Y- .
,
.
, .
, , :
, , , , . ,
.
, , , : . 1990- 1991 ,
. , , . 1990-1991 1990-1991 .
Tavi 3
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saqonlis bazari
81
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momxmareblis ndoba da 1990 -1991 wlebis recesia
CanarTi
1990 ,
,
, -
.
82
82
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 12
10
1-
.
(1992
) 1990 1991
, . 1990 -3
-4 1991
,
. , 1990-1991
.

? .
-2
,
.
,

;
, . , 19901991
-

. , 1990
-4 ,
,
25 , , 63 . , 88 .
. (- $25 .
- $ 63 . = - $88),

? (3.8) ,

? c0, I , G T ?
,
, c0 -

. c0- -3
.

, 1990
-4 37
1991
30
.
c0 - ,
. 1990
1991 -
makroekonomika
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,

.

,
,
1991 .
,
. ,

, , : 1970-

.
, 19901991 - .
,
, 2001 ,
,
.
-5 .
CanarTi

?
-4 ,
(consumer confidence
index) . 5 000 .
, , , ,
.
,
1990 -3
-4 (90- 61-).
, .
: 1990
?
?
1 , ,1990-1991
1990:2
1990:3
1990:4
1991:1
1991:2
(1)
19
29
63
31
27
(2)
17
57
88
27
47
(3) c0 -
(4)

23
1
37
30
8
105
90
61
65
77
(1)- -(3) , 1992 .

:: Olivier Blanchard, Consumption and the Recession of 19901991, American Economic Review , May 1993.
Tavi 3
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83
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3.4
investiciebi danazogebis tolia:

saqonlis bazris wonasworobis
alternatiuli gza

. , . (John
Maynard Keynes) 1936 ,
.
, . .
: +

, (S), , :
S YD C
, , , :
S Y T C
, ( )
. , ,
, ; , , , .

. , , , , :
Y = C + I +G
(T) :
Y T C = I + G T
(S), :
84
84
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10
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S = I + G T
,
I = S + (T G )
(3.10)
. .
(3.10) : . ,
IS ,
, : : ,
, ,
.
(3.10) ,
, , , , , (Robinson
Crusoe) .
: (,
),
. , . (3.10) ,
:
.
:
:
=
=
, (3.6) . , (3.10)
. , .
, . , ,
. , , :
S = Y T C
= Y T c0 c1 (Y T )
Tavi 3
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85
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:
S = c0 + (1 c1 )(Y T )
(3.11)
c1- , (1-c1)-
. , . , (c1) 0 - 1- , ,
(1-c1) 0- 1- . ,
1 1
.
. (3.10)
:
I = c0 + (1 c1 )(Y T ) + (T G )
(Y) :
Y=
1
[c0 + I + G c1T ]
1 c1
(3.12)
(3.12) (3.8) - , . .
,
.
dazogvis paradoqsi

. ,
, . , , . , , ,
, ,
86
86
12
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 10
. ,
,
, .
,
.
, -
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S = c0 + (1 c1 )(Y T )
, - c0 ( ): ,
; , ,
Y, : .

. ,
,
.
, , ,
(3.10) , ,
:
, : I = I ; T
G. , , ,
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Tavi 3
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
saqonlis bazari
87
9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM
3.5
aris Tu ara mTavroba yovlisSemZle?

gafrTxileba

, 26- :

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M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 16
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
,67
, 67
, 67
(IM), 67
(X), 67
saqonlis bazari
89
9/27/2010 1:47:40 PM
9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM
(X-IM), 67
, 67
, 67
, 67
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M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 16
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 12
10
. .
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:
C = 160 + 0,6YD
I = 150
G = 150
T = 100
:
.
(Y);
. (YD);
. (C);
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makroekonomika
9/27/2010 1:47:40 PM
9/27/2010 1:47:38 PM
M01
M01_BL
0 PM
47:38 PM
. , G 110- , ()
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Tavi 3
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 16
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
saqonlis bazari
91
9/27/2010 1:47:40 PM
9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM
. ,
, .
Y - ?
c0-
? ( .
).
7.
, , T, , .
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M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 16
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92
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 12
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. , 9/27/2010
(-5
).
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? .
. , b0, , . ?
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1:47:40 PM
makroekonomika
9/27/2010 1:47:38
1:47:40 PM
M01
M01_BL
47:40 PM
47:38
47:40 PM

9.

, () . ,
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Tavi 3
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M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
saqonlis bazari
93
9/27/2010 1:47:40 PM
9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM
fi nan su ri baz rebi
aeWvoa dRe ise gavides, rom masobrivi informaciis saSualebebiT informacia

ar gavrceldes fed-is (SemoklebiT ase uwodeben federalur sarezervo sistemas - aSS-is centralur banks) politikis Sesaxeb, kerZod, apirebs Tu ara is saprocento ganakveTis cvlilebas da ras moitans es cvlileba ekonomikisTvis.
alan grinspeni (Alan Greenspan), federaluri sarezervo sistemis Tavmjdomare 1987-dan 2006 wlamde, ara marto aSS-Si, aramed TiTqmis mTel msoflioSi erT-erT
yvelaze gavlenian politikosad iyo aRiarebuli (qvemoT naCvenebi karikatura kargad
mianiSnebs amaze). misi saqmis gamgrZelebeli, ben bernanke (Ben Bernanke), mudam cdilobs
analogiuri reputacia gaimyaros.
ekonomikuri saqmianobis is modeli, romelic me-3 TavSi SevimuSaveT, saprocento ganakveTs ar Seicavs, ase rom, masSi alan grinspenisa Tu ben bernankes araviTari monawileoba
saWiro ar iyo. is Zalian gamartivebuli modelia da axla droa is ufro realisturi
gavxadoT. es ki Semdegi ori nabijis gadadgmas moiTxovs:
pirveli, unda ganvixiloT, Tu rogor ganisazRvreba saprocento ganakveTi da rogor
SeuZlia federalur sarezervo sistemas masze gavlenis moxdena. es winamdebare Tavis
ganxilvis sagania; meore, Cven unda ganvixiloT, Tu rogor axdens gavlenas saprocento
ganakveTi moTxovnaze da gamoSvebaze. es momdevno Tavis ganxilvis sagani iqneba.
Tavi 4
95
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3
9/27/2010 1:47:37
1:47:35 PM
4.1 ;
4.2 , ; , ,
;
4.3 , , , , , ;
4.4 , , :
, .
4.1
,
, , ,
(,
,

)
,

.
fulze moTxovna
. ,
: , ,
, , . : ,
, . .
, ,
, 50 000
.
,
. , :
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. ,
: , .
, .
.
(), i-,
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,
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.
96
96
makroekonomika
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 12
10
9/27/2010 1:47:38 PM
M01_BL
47:38 PM
. ,
,
i.
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.
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() . ,
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- .
, , 1500 (,
3000 ) .
48500 .
, , .
; . , .
Tavi 4
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
finansuri bazrebi
97
9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM
CanarTi
semantikuri xafangi: fuli, Semosavali da simdidre

, . ( )
( ). .

.
, . :
, . , .
(J. Paul Getty) ,
,
1000 . ,
,
1000 .

,
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10%-, 3000 ,
300 .
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.
.

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.
1980- 14%- ,
. , ( , ), ,
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. 2006
4,7%- . ,
, , 98
98
12
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 10
makroekonomika
9/27/2010 1:47:38 PM
M01_BL
47:38 PM
(), , 500 .
, ,
, , 10000
, , ,
1000 .
, -
,
.

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:
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, ;
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,
.
, , ,

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) , ,
,
.
,
, .

,
. .
, , , 1
000 000
,
, 1980- . , , 1980-
, .
fulze moTxovnis funqciis gamoyvana

, , ,
.
Md ,
, ( - ). ,
.

.
, Tavi 4
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
finansuri bazrebi
99
9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM
-2
,
.

.

( )
. 10%- , ,
, , 10%- . , :
M d = $YL(i )
()
(4.1)
$Y . : , Md, ,
$Y, , L(i) , . i- :
, .
(4.1) , :

.
,
,
,

.
100
100
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 12
10
. , ,
$Y - 2$Y - , $YL(i) -
2$YL(i) - .
. L(i) :
.
, (4.1)
. 4.1-. , i, ,
M .
$Y
Md . ( i),
( M).
, .
,
, Md- Md- . , i $Y- $Y -
M- M - .
makroekonomika
9/27/2010 1:47:38 PM
M01_BL
47:38 PM
, 2006 -
1600 (
) . - ( 110 ) , 170 ,
. ,
,
, , 750 , . :

?
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(Internal Revenue service - )
,
, , 80 . 500
, 66%, . ,
? : , .
, ,
, .
. , . ,
? ,

CanarTi
vis aqvs amerikis fuli?
nax. 4 - 1
, i
fulze moTxovna
M d (
$Y
> $Y )
M
(
$Y )
d
M
, M
Tavi 4
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finansuri bazrebi
101
9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM
CanarTi
, ,

. ,

. - ,
50 - ,
80 -
, -
.
,
-,
, . , , .
4.2
,

, :
, ,
-
,
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; , ( , ),

- .
, , - ,
?
saprocento ganakveTis gansazRvra, I
, ,
.
: ,
,
. ,
.
.
, , ,
. , .
102
102
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 12
10
makroekonomika
9/27/2010 1:47:38 PM
M01_BL
47:38 PM
fulze moTxovna, fulis miwodeba da wonasworuli saprocento ganakveTi

, M , ..
Ms =M
s (, , .
).
,
, Ms = Md. (4.1)
,

,
( )
.
M = $YL (i )
(4.2)
, i
, $Y
,
, M-, . LM .
. 4.2- .
. 4.1-,
, . Md , $Y, :
. ,
Ms , . M- . A , i, .
, ,

:
IS ,
LM
50
. L :
,

.
;
. . M
.
. .
. 4.3
.
Tavi 4
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
finansuri bazrebi
103
9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM
nax. 4 - 2

Ms
,
(
)
( ).
, i
saprocento
ganakveTis gansazRvra

Md
M
, M
Ms
nominaluri Semosavlis zrdis gavlena

saprocento
ganakveTze
, i
nax. 4 - 3
Md
Md
($Y > $Y)
M
, M
. 4.3 . 4.2- , A
. $Y- $Y- ,
.
, Md- Md ,
104
104
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 12
10
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M01_BL
47:38 PM
A A- , i- i- .
: . : .
,
.
. 4.4
.
A , i . Ms = M -
Ms = M - , , Ms - Ms
. A - A - ; i-
i - .
:
; ,
.
Ms
nax. 4 - 4
Ms
, i
fulis miwodebis
zrdis gavlena saprocento ganakveTze
A
Md
M
, M
Tavi 4
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
finansuri bazrebi
105
9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM
monetaruli politika da operaciebi Ria bazarze

4.3 4.4 , ,
.
operaciebi Ria bazarze
( )

.
;
,
.
.
,
.
,
,
. ,
.
. 4.5 - .
, .
. .
, , 1
, , ,
1 , , .
,
() .
1 ,
, 1 . , ().
106
106
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 12
10
makroekonomika
9/27/2010 1:47:38 PM
M01_BL
47:38 PM
nax. 4 - 5
( )
balansi
aqtivebi
obligaciebi
()
valdebulebebi
fuli (valuta)
Ria bazarze eqspansiuri

operaciebis gavlena
aqtivebi
xelTarsebuli
obligaciebis
cvlileba:
valdebulebebi
ekonomikaSi fulis
maragis cvlileba:
+ $1 mln.
+ $1 mln.
obligaciis fasebi da obligaciidan Semosavlebi
centraluri bankis
balansi da Ria bazarze eqspansiuri operaciebis efeqti
,
().
,

,
.
. ,
, ; .

, .
,
,
, , 100
. - , , , , , T - (T-bills) . , $PB, B . ,

($100 - $PB)/$PB. , :
i=

(100$)
($PB), ($PB).
$100 $ PB
$ PB
$PB $95, $5 / $95 =

0,053, 5,3% . $PB $90,
11,1% . ,
.
, .
Tavi 4
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107
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, ,
100 , :
$ PB =

() .

100
, ?
$100
1+ i
:
1- .
,
. ,
.
, , ,
.
.
,
.
,
.
.

,
. .
, :

.
.
,
;

;

.
, , .
108
108
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 12
10
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47:38 PM
ra avirCioT: fuli Tu saprocento ganakveTi?

,

, . ,
, ,
.
. 4.4- , , i-
i- Ms - Ms - . , , Ms - Ms - i - i - .
, , ? ,
, ,
. , , ;
. ,
: , . , :
, . ,
, .
, . 4.3-
.
?
fuli, obligaciebi da sxva aqtivebi

:
. , , . , , , - , . ,
, . ,

, .

. ,
Tavi 4
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
finansuri bazrebi
: ,
,
, .
-15 .
109
9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM

. , ,

.
, , .
,
. ,
, .
, . , . ,
.
4.3
saprocento ganakveTis gansazRvra, II1
, ,
, ,
.
ras akeTeben bankebi

.
. , , .
, .

.
,

,

,
, , .
- .
,
, ,
:
. , :
. 4.6 ()-:
110
110
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 12
10
,
(, -
makroekonomika
9/27/2010 1:47:38 PM
M01_BL
47:38 PM
).

. , .
.
, ,
. :
, . ,
,
.
, , , ,
,
, . , , ,
. .
,
,
. ,
, ,
. - . ,
,
10%- . 90% .
( )
aqtivebi
valdebulebebi
obligaciebi
()
centraluri bankis mier

Seqmnili fuli= rezervebi+
+naRdi fuli
centraluri bankisa
da bankebis balansis
xelaxla ganxilva
bankebi
aqtivebi
valdebulebebi
rezervebi
sesxebi
obligaciebi
saCeko depozitebi
Tavi 4
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
nax. 4 - 6
centraluri banki
finansuri bazrebi
111
9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM
CanarTi
sabanko panika
( ) , (
)? ,

.
,
.
, . ,

,
.
, ,
. , , :
,
. , , .
.

-
112
112
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 12
10
. , ,
. , , , (). ,

, , .

: ,
. , ,

. , ,
, , .
, . ,
,

.
:
-
70%-.
30%- . , , , . , ,

. .
.
makroekonomika
9/27/2010 1:47:38 PM
M01_BL
47:38 PM
, 100 000
. ,
.
.

. ,
,
,
. ,
( 22- ,
).
, , .
(, T - ) , , ,
.
.
CanarTi
, . 1930-
. ,
(
).
, ,
, . , ,
(Its wonderful life) (James Stewart) ,
,
. , ,
,
,

.
,
. , ,
.
, ?
1934 . -
. 4.6 () ,
. , . 4.5- . , :
; , . ,
.
, .
Tavi 4
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finansuri bazrebi
113
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centraluri bankis fulis miwodeba da masze moTxovna

, , .
.

.
,
.
. 4.7 ( ). :
.
,
. ,
.
:
:
(
);

( );
(

).
nax. 4 -7
centraluri bankis
fulze moTxovnisa
da miwodebis determinantebi
fulze moTxovna
saCeko depozitebze
moTxovna
bankebis rezervebze
moTxovna
centraluri bankis
fulze moTxovna
naRd fulze
moTxovna
centraluri
bankis
fulis
miwodeba
fulze moTxovna
Md
$Y L(i)
saCeko depozitebze
moTxovna
Dd
(1 c) M d
naRd fulze
moTxovna
CU d
114
114
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 12
10
c Md
bankebis rezervebze
moTxovna
Rd
centraluri bankis
fulze moTxovna
(1 c) M d
Hd
[c
[c
CU d R d
(1 c)] M d
(1 c)] $Y L(i)
centraluri
bankis
fulis
miwodeba
makroekonomika
9/27/2010 1:47:38 PM
M01_BL
47:38 PM
. :
, .
. 4.7 - :
?
?
?
,

?
fulze moTxovna
, : , ; ,
.
, ( ) , . , . ,
, ((4.1) ):
M d = $YL(i )
(-)
(4.3)
,
? ,
, , ; .
, .
, .
c- , , (1 - c) -
(- 40%- , c =0,4). CUd
(CU (currency), - ). Dd (D , -
). :
Tavi 4
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finansuri bazrebi
115
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CU d = cM d
D d = (1 c) M d
(4.4)
(4.5)
(4.4)
, (4.5) .
. 4.7-
: (4.3)
; (4.4) (4.5) , , .
, , . .
rezervebze moTxovna
,
,
. , ( )
. , R
, - . , -
, R- D- :
R =D
(4.6)
, - 10%- . , 0,1- .
Dd
, (4.6) , Dd
. (4.5) (4.6) , ,
, :
R d = (1 c) M d
(4.7)
, . 4.7-
, .
116
116
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 12
10
makroekonomika
9/27/2010 1:47:38 PM
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47:38 PM
centraluri bankis fulze moTxovna

Hd - .
:
H d = CU d + R d
(4.8)
CUd Rd (4.4) (4.7) :
H d = cM d + (1 c) M d = [c + (1 c) ]M d
, Md (4.3)
. :
H d = [c + (1 c)]$YL(i )
(4.9)
, . 4.7- , .
saprocento ganakveTis gansazRvra

. , H
. , , H -
. , :
H = Hd
(4.10)
(4.9)
H = [c + (1 c)]$YL(i )
(4.11)
((4.11) ) ((4.11)
) . .
. , ,
c=1. 1- 4.2 (4.2) , M H- ( H,
M ). ,
Tavi 4
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117
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, ,

,

.

,
?
118
118
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 12
10

. , 4.2 .
, , , c = 0.
(4.11)- - . ,
=0,1, , 0,1 - . ,
. : 10 .
, (
)
.
,
(.., c < 1),
. ,
. ,
.
(4.11) . 4.8 - .
. 4.2 - , , . . , CUd + Rd,
. : 1) ;
2) , , .
H .
A , i .

,
. , ,
. ,

, ,
.
makroekonomika
9/27/2010 1:47:38 PM
M01_BL
47:38 PM
nax. 4 - 8
saprocento ganakveTi, i
centraluri bankis
fulis miwodeba
wonasworoba
centraluri bankis fulis bazarze da saprocento ganakveTis
gansazRvra
centraluri bankis
fulze moTxovna
Hd
CU d
Rd
H
centraluri bankis fuli, H
4.4
wonasworobis ganxilvis ori

alternatiuli xerxi1
4.3 , .
, . , ,
,
.
federaluri fondebis bazari da

federaluri fondebis ganakveTi
,
, .
, H,
, CUd, 1

Tavi 4
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
finansuri bazrebi
119
9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM
. Rd. , ,
, :
H CU d = R d
CUd-
, , Hd,
Hd=CUd+Rd , , H=Hd-
. ,
4.3 ,
.
,
, - , , , . (Federal Funds
Market).
, . , ,
Rd, , (H-CUd)-, .
.
, ,
. , H-, , .
- .
,
, , .
fulis miwodeba, fulze moTxovna da

fulis multiplikatori
:
,
. ,
120
120
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 12
10
,

.
, .

( )
.
, (4.11) (
makroekonomika
9/27/2010 1:47:38 PM
M01_BL
47:38 PM
,
) [c+(1-c)]-:
1
H = $YL(i )
[c + (1 c)]
(4.12)
=
(4.12)
( ), ( ).
, .
(4.12) (4.2) , ,
, . (4.12)-
, (4.2)-, (1/(c+(1-c))- .
, , (c+(1-c))
, (1/(c+(1-c)) . , (1/(c+(1-c))-,
. , . 4- ,

4- .
, , (High-powered
money) ( H ,) .
, H-
(
, H ) . , , .
(4.12) , , ,

, , . , ,
, .
Tavi 4
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
finansuri bazrebi
121
9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM
fulis multiplikatori
, , .. c=0.
1/- .
, 1/- . , = 0,1-,
1/0,1=10- . , .
,
, 100 . ( 1) 100 .
100
. , 100
. , . ,
, :
1- (, )
100 ( A) , 100
.
A $100 0,1 = $10 - , $100 0,9 =
= $90- . 90 , 2.
2- 90
( B) 90
.
B $90 0,1 = $9 -
($90 0,9 = $81) . 81 , 3- .
3- 81 ,
, C- ..
.
? 1-
A ,
100 ; B 2-
90 , , C
3 - 81 ..
:
100(1 + 0,9 + 0,92 + ...)

, 1/(1 0,9) = 10- (.
122
122
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 12
10
makroekonomika
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M01
M01_BL
47:38 PM
2,
). 1 000 10-.
, .
, ,
.

10-.
, , ,
( 3). , , , , . .
Sejameba
.
, .
,

.
.

.
,
, -
.
,
, .
, ,
,

.
.
,
.
Tavi 4
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 16
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
finansuri bazrebi
123
123
9/27/2010 1:47:40 PM
9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM
,

.

. .

.
.
sakvanZo terminebi
(),
95
, 96
, 96
, 96
, 96
, 98
, 98
, 98
, 98
, , 98
, 98
, 98
, 98
, 98
LM , 103
, 106

, 106
,
(T-), 107
, 110
() , 111
, 116
, 112

, 113
, 113
, 113
, 120
, 120
, 121
, 121
, 121

1. , , , .
:
. ,
.
. , ,
;
.
,
.
124
124
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 16
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 12
10
. - - ;
.
;
.
,

,
;
. ;.
makroekonomika
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M01
M01_BL
0 PM
47:38 PM
. ,
.
2. , 60 000 . ,
,
:
M d = $Y (0,35 i )
. , 5%-?
10%-?
. ,
.
. , 10%-.

, 50%- ?
. , 5%-.

, 50%- ?
.
. , ?
3. , 100 :
. , 75 ? 85 ? 95 ?
.
?
. 8%-,
?
4. , :
M d = $Y (0, 25 i )
$Y 100 . ,
20 :
. ?
. i-
10 (, 2%- 12%-) ,
?
5. , 50 000 , 60 000
. ,
:
M d = $Y (0,35 i )
.
. , 10 .

?
.

? .
.

? .
. : , . ?
6.
,
.
,
.
, .

?
Tavi 4
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 16
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
finansuri bazrebi
125
125
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9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM
7.
. ,
.
, ,
,
,
. , 4 :
. , ?
,
,
,
4- (, );
. ?
, ,
, :
. ()
:
. ()
.

.
,
;
. ()
;
. ()
;
. , 126
126
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 16
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 12
10
, ?
8.
4.4 . :
I. ;
II. 0,1-;
III. :
M d = $Y (0,8 i )
100
, 5
:
.
?
. ,

.
. ?

, () ?
. 300
?
. 3
i-? [: , ()- ].
9. .
-
,

.

makroekonomika
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9/27/2010 1:47:38 PM
M01
M01_BL
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47:38 PM
? (, ,
, 22).

10.
(www.
federalreserve.gov)
(FOMC)
. ,
, , :
. ? ( ,

).
. ,
?

?
,
- .
, .
, Prentice Hall- :
www.prenhall.com/blanchard.
damatebiT wasakiTxi

, . -
Money, the Financial System and the Economy,
by R. Glenn Hubbard, Addison-Wesley, Reading, MA, 2007.
,

,

.. (www.federalreserve.gov).
Tavi 4
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 16
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
finansuri bazrebi
127
127
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9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM
saqonlisa da
finansuri bazrebi,
IS-LM modeli
esame TavSi Cven ganvixileT saqonlis bazari, meoTxe TavSi - finansuri bazrebi. axla ki saqonlisa da finansuri bazrebi erTad ganvixiloT. Tavis bolos
Tqven geqnebaT warmodgena imis Sesaxeb, Tu rogor ganisazRvreba moklevadian periodSi gamoSveba da saprocento ganakveTi.
am sakiTxis ganxilvisaTvis davadgeT gzas, romelic orma ekonomistma: jon
hiksma (John Hicks) da elvin hansenma (Alvin Hansen) 1930-iani wlebis bolos da 1940-iani
wlebis dasawyisSi gakvala. roca ekonomistma jon meinard keinzma (John Mainard Keynes)
1936 wels Tavisi zogadi Teoria gamoaqveyna, gamoikveTa mosazreba, rom wigni iyo rogorc fundamenturi, aseve Zalian rTuli (scadeT waikiTxoT is da Tavad darwmundebiT).
mravali debati gaimarTa imasTan dakavSirebiT, Tu ra igulisxma keinzma sinamdvileSi.
1937 wels jon hiksma Seajama is, rac man keinzis mTavar damsaxurebad miiCnia: saqonlisa
da finansuri bazrebis erToblivi aRwera. misi analizi Semdgom elvin hansenma gaaRrmava.
hiksma da hansenma SemoTavazebul formalizebul variants IS-LM modeli uwodes.
makroekonomikam 1940 wlidan didi progresi ganicada, swored amitom IS-LM modeli
ganxilulia wignis me-5 da ara 27-e TavSi (Tqven rom es kursi 40 wlis win SegeswavlaT,
albaT, daaxloebiT igives gaakeTebdiT). ekonomistTa didi nawilisTvis IS-LM modeli axlac fundamenturi mniSvnelobisaa, romelic, simartivis miuxedavad, moklevadian periodSi mimdinare ekonomikuri procesebis did nawils moicavs. swored amitom, IS-LM modeli
axlac iswavleba da gamoiyeneba.
1. am TavSi xuTi nawilia:
5.1 nawilSi ganxilulia wonasworoba saqonlis bazarze,

saidanac gamomdinareobs IS damokidebuleba.
5.2 nawilSi ganxilulia wonasworoba finansur bazarze,

saidanac gamomdinareobs LM damokidebuleba.
5.3 da 5.4 nawilebSi ganxilulia IS da LM mrudebis urTierTdamokidebuleba.

miRebul Sedegebze dayrdnobiT gaanalizebulia fiskaluri da monetaruli
politikis efeqtebi jer cal-calke Semdeg ki erTad.
5.5 nawilSi warmodgenilia dinamika da is, Tu rogor aRwers IS-LM modeli

moklevadian periodSi ekonomikas.
Tavi 5
129
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
3
9/27/2010 1:47:37
1:47:35 PM
5.1
saqonlis bazrebi da IS
damokidebuleba
, , Y, , Z, IS .
, ,
. ,
( )
,
:
Z = C (Y T ) + I + G
, C Y T . ,
, C=C(Y T) .
, ,
Y = C (Y T ) + I + G

-16 .
,
, , .
, . , .
,
.
investiciebi, gayidvebi da saprocento ganakveTi

-3 , .
. , . :
130
130
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10
, , , . - . ,
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. , , ;
, , -. ,
- .
, - . -
, , .
, :
,
, -
.
:
I = I (Y , i )
(5.1)
( +, )
(5.1) , , I ,
, Y, , i ( , . ,
. , Y
, ). Y-
, (, )
.
, .
.
.
gamoSvebis gansazRvra
(5.1) ,
Y = C (Y T ) + I (Y , i ) + G .
(5.2)
( ) ( ) . (5.2) IS . ,
.
. 5.1-.
, . , i, , :
, , . . -3 ;
Tavi 5 saqonlisa da finansuri bazrebi, IS-LM modeli
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
131
9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM
.
, .
, . ZZ .
. 5.1- ZZ :
, ,
.
(5.2)
, ZZ ,
. . 5.1- . , , ,
ZZ .
ZZ , 450- , .
, , .
-3 , ,
,
. , , ,
nax. 5 -1
wonasworoba saqonlis bazarze
ZZ
moTxovna, Z

.
,
.
moTxovna
45
Y
gamoSveba, Y
132
132
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 12
10
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. , , , . ,
, ,
. , ZZ 450-
.
IS mrudis miReba
. 5.1- , ZZ,
. , . 5.2- , .
, . 5.2 - ZZ A . , i
i. ,
. ZZ ,
ZZ : . ZZ 450- A . Y- .
: .
, , ,
.
. 5.2()- , . . 5.2()-.
. 5.2 () , Y, , . A . 5.2 ()- . 5.2 ()- A
, A . 5.2 ()- A .
5.2 ()-. .

. 5.2 ()- . IS
.
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
,
?
(:
).
,
.
IS .
133
9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM
IS mrudis gadaadgileba
, .
, IS
.
. 5.2- IS , T, , G,
. T- G- IS
. . 5.3 .
IS ,
.
. T- T- . , , i- , ,
, , , -
nax. 5 -2
()

,
.
moTxovna, Z
IS mrudis miReba
(a)
ZZ
( i - sTvis
)
ZZ
(roca i > i)
45
Y
()
,
. , IS .
(b)
gamoSveba,Y
IS mrudi
gamoSveba, Y
134
134
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 12
10
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.
Y- Y- , IS
:
, .
, , , , IS .
. ( ). ,
, ,
, , IS .
, ,
.

?

?
, :
, .
IS .
, , IS . ,
, IS .
nax. 5 - 3
procenti, i
IS mrudis gadaadgileba
IS
.
IS (roca gadasaxadebiT -s tolia)

IS (roca T > T )
Y
gamoSveba, Y
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
135
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5.2
finansuri bazrebi da LM
damokidebuleba
. - 4 , :
M = $YL(i )
M . , 4.3
4.4 , , M -
.
, , $Y, , i, .
4.1 ,
, . , ( ) ( ) .
realuri fuli, realuri Semosavali

da saprocento ganakveTi
-2 :

=

: $Y = YxP. :
=

: Y=$Y/P.
M = $YL (i) ,
.
, , (
), ( )
.
, , ,
, Y-, . P

M
= YL(i )
P
(5.3)
, : , ( , )
( , Y -
, i -) .
136
136
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 12
10
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, ,
, , .
, . ,
,
. 1,20 ,
2,40 : . , . , , ,
.
(5.3) , LM . , , Y, , $Y-,
. (
) , . (5.3) , ,
, .
, .
LM mrudis miReba
(5.3)
. 5.4.
.5.4 () -. , () . () -
nax. 5 - 4
IS mrudis miReba
Md
(rocaY > Y )
i
Ms
LM mrudi
A
M d (Y -Tvis)
M/P
(realuri) fuli, M/P
(a)
Y
Semosavali, Y
(b)
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
()
, .
,

.
()
,

. ,
LM .
137
9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM
M/P Ms-. () , Y, () . Md-. ,

, ,
-4 . 4.3- . A ,
i- .
, ,

,
.
LM .
, .
,
LM
.
138
138
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 12
10
Y- Y- ,

. Md . A
i .
? ,
, . ,
,
,
, ,
,
.
.
. 5.4-
, , ,
. . 5.4 ()-.
. 5.4 ()- , i,
,
. A . 5.4 () - A . 5.4
()-, A . 5.4 ()- A . 5.4 (). , ,
, ,
, .

. 5.4 ()- . LM
.
:
. , .
LM mrudis gadaadgileba
. 5.4- LM , M, ,
P, , , M/P
. M/P- , -
makroekonomika
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M01_BL
47:38 PM
, M, , P, ,
LM .
, , , . 5.5-
M- M- . , M/P-
M/P- . , , ,
Y- , ,
, i-, , i- . LM
, LM- LM-, . ,
, . LM .
:
, ,
, , .
LM .
LM ;
LM .
IS ,
LM
? :
, Y i-
-
. , , Y-,
-,
. Y
.
, i Y-
-
. , i-,
-,
. i .
nax. 5 - 5
LM
( M/P - sTvis )
LM mrudis gadaadgileba
LM
.
LM
( roca M /P > M/P )
Y
Semosavali, Y
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
139
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5.3
IS da LM damokidebulebebis
gaerTianeba
IS , . , . LM
,
. , , ,
. IS LM
. , ,
. , IS LM,
. .
IS :
Y = C(Y - T)+ I(Y,i)+ G
LM :
M
= YL(i)
P
. 5.6 , IS LM , . ,
, , .
IS . LM
. A
. , A , Y
i, , .
IS LM , . 5.6-
, , . , : ,
A ? ?
: . 5.6 .
, ,
,
,
, ..
, , , IS - LM .
140
140
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 12
10
makroekonomika
9/27/2010 1:47:38 PM
M01_BL
ba
zr
eb
ze
IS - LM modeli
na
wo
ur
wo
na
ns
s
na
wo
47:38 PM
nax. 5 - 6
LM
r
ob
a
a
ob
r
o
sw
i
f
sa
qo
nl
i
sb
az
ar
z
IS
Y
gamoSveba (Semosavali),Y
.
IS . ,
. LM .
A
,
.
fiskaluri politika, aqtivoba da saprocento ganakveTi

, .
() ( ,

, ). , ?

, :
1.
,
; IS / LM ?
2.
, IS LM
; ?
3.
, , -3 ,
, . , , - :
. , ,
IS .
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
(G - T) -
;
(G-T) - .
(

,
( ,

).
141
9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM
IS
IS .
LM
LM
.
, ,
,
.

.
142
142
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 12
10
. 5.7 (). IS , .
IS B . IS ,
YB , iB, ,
.
iB , ,
, T- T- . 5.1 . ,
, ,
, . iB , YB- YC- .
, ,
. , IS
, IS- IS- .
IS , LM . . 5.7 ()
LM . F .
LM , iF YF
,
.
, LM , ?
. YF
, , , iF-, . ,
, LM , . ,
LM .
:
, . (5.2)
, , , IS .
, (5.3) , , LM .
-2 . , . 5.7 ()- IS
LM A . IS , IS
. 5.7 ()- LM LM . 5.7 ()-.
IS IS- IS-
. IS LM A . Y- Y-,
i- i- . , IS , LM A- A
. ,
, , ( IS )
makroekonomika
9/27/2010 1:47:38 PM
M01_BL
47:38 PM
nax. 5 - 7
(a)
gadasaxadebis zrdis
Sedegebi
iB
IS
B
C
IS
( T - sTvis)
IS
(roca T > T )
YC
YB
gamoSveba, Y
(b)
LM
iF
YF
gamoSveba, Y
(g)
LM
i
i
D
A
IS
( roca T > T )
Y
IS
(T - sTvis)
gamoSveba, Y
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
143
9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM
IS
. LM
.
LM .

, A-
- - .5.7 ()-,
-
.
, ,
A .
( LM ). .
: ,
. ,
, . ,
, .

, .
? , ( ,
). , ,
: , , ,
. ? ,
; , . (5.1) ,
: , ; , . ,
, . ,
( : ?
).
,
.
monetaruli politika, aqtivoba

da saprocento ganakveTi
-
M-
;
M-
- .
144
144
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 12
10
;

, .
, . , , M-,
. -
makroekonomika
9/27/2010 1:47:38 PM
M01_BL
47:38 PM
: . ,

,
.
. , , ?
, -3 (3.10) , ,
:
= +
(T - G)
,
. , ,
;
, , .
,

, T - G , ; S , T - G , i .
. ,

: , , . , .
,
,
, . : S , T - G, I , .
, . ,

.
, , M/P-. M/P-,
M/P- .5.8- :
LM
(M/P - sTvis )
CanarTi
deficitis Semcireba: investiciebisaTvis kargia Tu cudi?
P M 10%-
M/P 10%-.
nax. 5 - 8
LM
(roca M /P > M/P) monetaruli eqspan-
siis Sedegebi
IS
Y
gamoSveba,Y
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
145
9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM
IS
IS

.
LM LM
.
M-
- LM .
IS . IS
.
, IS LM .
IS .
.
, IS M . , M - IS .
LM , ,
, LM . 5.2
, LM , LM- LM -
: ,
.
, ,
. LM
. IS , A- A . Y- Y-,
i - i- .
:
; , ,
.
, ,
: , , , . ,
,
. , , .
:
( , , ),
. ;
5-1
IS - is
gadaaadgileba
146
146
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 12
10
LM - is
gadaaadgileba
cvlileba
gamoSvebaSi
cvlileba saprocento
ganakveTSi
gadasaxadebis zrda
marcxniv
ara
qveviT
qveviT
gadasaxadebis Semcireba
marjvniv
ara
zeviT
zeviT
xarjebis zrda
marjvniv
ara
zeviT
zeviT
xarjebis Semcireba
marcxniv
ara
qveviT
qveviT
fulis miwodebis zrda
ara
qveviT
zeviT
qveviT
fulis miwodebis Semcireba
ara
zeviT
qveviT
zeviT
makroekonomika
9/27/2010 1:47:38 PM
M01_BL
47:38 PM
5.1 ,
. , ;
, , , , ,
.
5.4
koordinirebuli politika
. , , . .
, - , , , .

.
, , 2001
.
- - 2001 .
, .
1990- . (Bill Clinton)
1992 , - . , , , , . (,
) (,
) .
, ( ) (Alan Greenspan) ( ) . ,
,
( 1990-
) .
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
,
IS
IS-LM
LM
. ? ?
147
9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM
1992 - .

. 2000 ,
.

, , -4
. 2001
,
( 1

, 1999
2002 -4 , . 2001 ,
).
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, 2001
2001
.
, 1990- 1992
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),
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: 1990- ,

, ,
. -
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1.5
procenti
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aSS-is 2001 wlis recesia
1.0
0.5
0.0
0.5
1999
nax. 1
148
148
12
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 10
2000
2001
2002
aSS-s zrdis tempi 1991 wlis I kvartlidan

2002 wlis IV kvartlamde
makroekonomika
9/27/2010 1:47:38 PM
M01_BL
47:38 PM
procenti
1999
nax. 2
2000
2001
2002

1999 wlis I kvartlidan, 2002 wlis IV kvartlamde
1995- 2000 10%-

, , 2001
,
. , , ,
, .
,
,
.
. 2001

( 2 1991 2002
-4 ).
. ,
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, .
. 2002 ,
. .
,

. 2001 , , ,
.
.
. 2001 2002
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
CanarTi
149
9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM
21.5
Semosavlebi
21.0
20.5
20.0
procenti
19.5
xarjebi
19.0
18.5
18.0
17.5
17.0
nax. 3
2000
2001
2002
aSS-is federaluri mTavrobis Semosavlebi da xarjebi

(mTlian Sida produqtTan TanafardobiT)
1999 wlis I kvartalidan 2002 wlis IV kvartalamde
LM
sainvesticio
moTxovnis
Semcireba
CanarTi
1999
LM
fiskaluri
eqspansia
monetaruli
eqspansia
A
IS
IS
Y
IS
gamoSveba,Y
nax. 4
150
150
12
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 10
aSS-is 2001 wlis recesia
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9/27/2010 1:47:38 PM
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47:38 PM
IS IS IS- .

2001 A ,
. A
A , A ( ,
) .
, , , , , :

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2001 11
- ?
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M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
CanarTi
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, 2001 11 , .
. 3 1999
2002 -4 ,
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.
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, 2002
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:
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Y .
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, .
, . ,
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2001

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.
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. ,
, 2001 2002
.
, , - .
,
,
,

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. 26- .
ramdenad Seesabameba IS-LM

modeli movlenebs?
. , .5.7- .
5.8- , , A - A , Y- Y- ,
: .
.
. , -3
, . -3 ,
:
, ;
, , , 152
152
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 12
10
makroekonomika
9/27/2010 1:47:38 PM
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47:38 PM
;
, , , ;
, , , .
(a)
(b)
federalur fondebze
saprocento ganakveTis
1%-iT zrdis gavlena
gamoSvebaze
federalur fondebze
1%-iT zrdis gavlena
dasaqmebaze
1.6
1.6
1.2
1.2
1.2
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0.4
0.0
ndobis
are
0.4
0.8
1.2
1.6
dasaqmebis procentuli
cvlileba
1.6
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cvlileba
sacalo vaWrobis procentuli

cvlileba
federalur fondebze
1%-iT zrdis gavlena
sacalo vaWrobaze
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0.4
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0.4
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1.2
8
4
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8
4
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(d)

, ,
.
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8
4
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8
4
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(e)
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0.0
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1.2
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8
4
dro (kvartali)
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
: Lawrence Chrisriano,
Martin Eichenbaum, Charles
Evans, The Effects of Monetary
Policy Shocks: Evidence from the
Flow of Funds , Review of Economics and Statistics, 1996.
federalur fondebze
1%-iT zrdis gavlena
fasebis doneze
fasebis donis procentuli cvlileba
umuSevrobis donis procentuli cvlileba
federaluri fondebis
ganakveTebis zrdis empiriuli efeqtebi
1.2
federalur fondebze
1%-iT zrdis gavlena
umuSevrobis doneze
0.06
nax. 5 - 9
(g)
153
9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM
, . ,
, , ,
.
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, .
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,
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, ( ,
).
154
154
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 12
10
. 5.9- , 1960 1990 .
1%- .
. 5.9-
. .
. ,
60%- .
. 5.9 () 1%-
.
;
, ,
.
, , , 1%- .
, -0,9%, .
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. 5.9 () , .
, ,
, .
, . ,
. -0,7% . ,
, .
.
,
2001 ( ). 2001

,
, 2001
.
. 5.9 () ,
: , . ,
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. 5.9 () . , ISLM - ,
. . 5.9 () , .
. ,
, IS-LM ,
: , .
. 5.9 . :
.
: , ,
, IS-LM- .
IS-LM . , , IS-LM ,
. , . IS-LM , , . , , ( 14-17)
(
18-21), , , . .
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
155
9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM
Sejameba
IS - LM , .
IS IS
, .

. , IS
.
LM LM ,
. , . , LM .
IS
, ; IS ,
.
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, -
; LM
,
.

,
- ,
, , .
.
- 2001
.
. ,

, .
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. , , IS - LM
.

.
sakvanZo terminebi
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LM , 137
,
, 141
, 144
, 144
, 144
, 144
-
,
, 147
, 154

1. , , , .
:
. :
156
156
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 16
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 12
10
;
. IS ,

;
makroekonomika
9/27/2010 1:47:40 PM
9/27/2010 1:47:38 PM
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M01_BL
0 PM
47:38 PM
. IS ,
,
;
. , IS ;
. LM , ,

;
. ;
. , ,
,
, .
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-3 . :
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I, G T .
. .
?
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. .
,
,
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M P = d1Y d 2 i
.
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).
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. () ()

? , , .
3.
. IS-LM ,

.
, ? ?
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C = c0 + c1 (Y T )
I = b0 + b1Y b2 i
M / P = d1Y d 2 i
. .
, c1 + b1 < 1 (:
-2
, ).
. (:
LM );
. ;
. (.. c0, c1
) , G ? (: G
, i? : i - , G );
. () .
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 16
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
157
157
9/27/2010 1:47:40 PM
9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM
4. IS LM :
C = 200 + 0, 25YD
I = 150 + 0, 25Y 1000i
G = 250
T = 200
( M / P) d = 2Y 8000i
M / P = 1600
. IS (: , Y , );
. LM (:
,
, i
);
. (: LM IS );
.
(:
() Y-
16 IS, LM
i- .
,
);
. C- I-
Y- ,
C, I G
;
. , M/P
= 1840 - . C, i,
I
;
. M/P
1600-. ,
G=400-.
Y-, i- C-
158
158
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 12
16
10
5.
,

,
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, .
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, 9/27/2010
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, );
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1:47:40 PM
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9/27/2010 1:47:38
1:47:40 PM
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M01_BL
47:40 PM
47:38
47:40 PM
.
?
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M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 16
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
159
159
9/27/2010 1:47:40 PM
9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM
? (,
,
G- ,
IS LM . ).
. : www.Federalreserve.gov/
fomc/fundsrate.htm. 1992-2000
. ?
. B-2 1992-2000
.

. ?
. , B-31
(2000 )
. .
1992-2000
? -10 ,
1950-2004
2,6%- .
1992-2000
?
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2001 ,

. 2001 11

.
(www.bea.gov). NIPA- ,
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160
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 16
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 12
10
, 1.1.1 ,

1.1.2 ,
. 1.1.2

. ,
, . ,

,
. , (.. ,
). 1.1.1 1.1.2
,
, 1999-2002
.
. 2000 2001 ;
. 2000-2001 . 1.1.1
,
? . ?
. 1.1.2
1999- 2001 .

.
2000- 2001 (..
1999
2000 ,
2000 -
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9/27/2010 1:47:38 PM
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M01_BL
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47:38 PM
2001 ).
?
, 2001 ? (
?);
. ,
11 2001
2002 . 2001
?

?
? , , 2001 ? 2001 11
2001 ?
,
.
, Prentice Hall- :
damatebiT wasakiTxi
- 2001

(Paul Krugman) :
The Great UnravelIng. W.W.Norton, New

York, 2003 (:
!).
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 16
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
161
161
9/27/2010 1:47:40 PM
9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM
danarTi:
saprocento ganakveTis wesi, rogorc LM damokidebulebis

alternatiuli gamoyvana:
LM
,
. ( . 5.4
()) .
-4 ,
,

, -
nax. 1
() LM
,

.
Ms
iB
() ,

, ,
,
.
M s Ms
iC
A
iA
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 12
10
B
LM
C
A
(rocaY > Y )
LM
M d (Y - sTvis)
Y
(realuri) fuli, M/P
(a)
. ,
. ,
LM

.
, .1
(). . 5.4 ()-, -
162
162
LM
saprocento i
ganakveTi,
LM damokidebuleba,
rogorc saprocento
ganakveTis wesi
Semosavali, Y
(b)
,

. Ms , Md . A , iA .
, Md- Md- . , A- B
makroekonomika
9/27/2010 1:47:38 PM
M01_BL
47:38 PM
,
iA- iB- . LM ,
, .1 ()-. ,
. 5.4 ()- .
,
.
? . ?
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. , .
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, LM, :
,
.
, , . , ,
,
,

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iC- . , LM ,
. 1 ()- LM-, , ,
LM .
: LM .
, ,

.
, LM .
LM- ? , . ,
, IS
. ,
,
. LM , . , ,

, LM , , , LM
(
?).
, 162
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
163
9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM
saSualovadiani
periodi
saSualovadian
periodSi ekonomika
ubrundeba gamoSvebis
umuSevrobis bunebriv
dones ukavSirdeba
Tavi 6
Tavi 7

.

,

.

.
,

; , ,
, ,

, ,

.
AS-AD
, IS-LM
- .
Tavi 8
Tavi 9

,

. ,
-
,

.
,

.

,
,

,
.
birTvi
moculobas, romelic
165
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM
166
M01_BL
Sromis bazari
aqamde Cven, ubralod, movlenebis aseTi TanmimdevrobiT ganviTarebis ignorireba

movaxdineT: miviReT ra mxedvelobaSi fasebis donis ucvleloba, Cven sinamdvileSi
vivaraudeT, rom firmebs hqondaT SesaZlebloba da survili, fasebis mocemuli donis
pirobebSi nebismieri raodenobis produqcia miewodebinaT. vidre yuradRebas vamaxvilebdiT
moklevadian periodze, es daSveba misaRebi iyo. magram, radgan axla Cveni yuradReba
mimarTulia saSualovadian periodze, am daSvebaze uari unda vTqvaT da gavaanalizoT, Tu
rogor xdeba fasebisa da xelfasis SeTanawyoba grZelvadiani periodis ganmavlobaSi da,
Tavis mxriv, es ukanaskneli rogor axdens gavlenas gamoSvebaze. es iqneba Cveni amocana am
da momdevno sam TavSi.
am TavSi aRweril movlenaTa ganviTarebis centrSi aris Sromis bazari, sadac yalibdeba
xelfasi.
Tavi eqvsi nawilisgan Sedgeba:
6.1 nawili Sromis bazris mokle mimoxilvas gvTavazobs;
6.2 nawilSi yuradReba gamaxvilebulia umuSevrobaze, mis cvlilebaze droTa

ganmavlobaSi da am cvlilebis gavlenaze dasaqmebulebze;
6.3 da 6.4 nawilebSi xelfasisa da fasebis formirebaa ganxiluli;
6.5 nawilSi ganixileba wonasworoba Sromis bazarze. daxasiaTebulia umuSevrobis

bunebrivi done, done, romelsac ekonomika saSualovadian periodSi ubrundeba;
6.6 nawilSi gavarkvevT, Tu ras ganvixilavT Semdgom.
Tavi 6
avfiqrdeT, Tu ra moxdeba, rodesac firmebi moTxovnis zrdaze warmoebis

zrdiT upasuxeben: maRali warmoeba maRal dasaqmebas ganapirobebs, rac dabal
umuSevrobas niSnavs. dabali umuSevroba xelfasebis zrdas iwvevs. maRali
xelfasebi warmoebis danaxarjebs zrdis, rac firmebs fasebis zrdas aiZulebs.
maRali fasebi muSakebs aiZulebs moiTxovon ufro maRali xelfasebi, rac fasebis Semdgom
zrdas iwvevs da a.S.
167
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 3
9/27/2010 1:47:35 PM
6. 1
,
,
, ,

.
Sromis bazris mimoxilva
2006 - 301
(. 6.1). ,
( 16 ),
, , ,
228 .

, , 151,4 .
77,4 ,
. ,
,
,
151,4/228,0- 66%-.
, ,
: 1950
;
.
144,4 ,
7 , . ,
,
, 7/151,4=4,6%-.
nax. 6 - 1
mTliani mosaxleoba: 301.0 mln kaci
, - 2006
( )
arainstituciuri samoqalaqo
mosaxleoba: 228.0 mln kaci
samoqalaqo samuSao Zala

151.4 mln kaci
dasaqmebuli
144.4 mln kaci
168
168
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 12
10
samuSao Zalis
gareT myofi
77.4 mln kaci
umuSevari
7.0 mln kaci
makroekonomika
9/27/2010 1:47:38 PM
M01_BL
47:38 PM
muSaxelis didi nakadi

, ,
, :
, .
, ,
.

.
,
. , ,
.
,
:
,

,
; ,
,
, .
nax. 6 - 2
2.8
,

- 1996-2003
dasaqmeba
122 mln
kaci
1.8
3.0
1.4
umuSevroba
6,2 mln
kaci
2.8
1.4
1.4
samuSao
Zalis
gareT myofi
59,3 mln
kaci

. -
, Current
Population Survey (CPS) ( ) .
, CPS- - 1996-
2003 , . 6.2- (CPS-
. :
).
Tavi 6
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
,
.

,

.
Sromis bazari
(1) , ,
.
(2)
, , .
(3) ,
,

169
9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM
,
. 6.1-
2006 .
. 6.2-

1996- 2003
.
.
,
,
- 50000
.

. , ,
,
.
,
100-

. ,
,
50 , 50 ,

.
, 50 ,
,
. ,
170
170
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 12
10
.6.2- :
, ,
.
, - 7,4
( 122 ):
2,8
( );
, 1,8 ,
( ) , ,
2,8
(
).
?
3/4 ,
() .
,
1/4 .
,
:

.
,
;
.

:

2,8 : 1,4 ,
1,4
. ,
( )
2,8/6,2,
45%. , ,
,
.
. -
, ,
,
.
( ),
,
. ,
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9/27/2010 1:47:38 PM
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47:38 PM
: -13
,
.

: 4,2
(2,8+1,4)
(3,0+1,4).
, , ,
,
, ,
. ,
. ,
400 000 250 000
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8,4 (2,8+1,4+3,0+1,4) , 10-
.
, , , ,
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, 5 , ,
, .
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.
. ,
.
, ,
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,
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,

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, ,

.
Tavi 6
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
Sromis bazari
50/100-,
50%-
.

, 50/100- .
, ,
,
.
171
9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM
CanarTi
mosaxleobis mimdinare mimoxilva

(CPS Current Population
Survey) , ,

-
.
1940
8 000
.

50 000-
. ,

.

,
6. 2

.
, 1960-
1990-

.
-8 -13
.
172
172
MP 93:74:1 0102/72/9
12
10

;

,
.
. ,
.
.
, ,

moZraoba umuSevrobaSi
1. . 6.3 -
1948
. ,
.
. 6.3- :
1980- -
, , 1950-
4,5%- 1960- 4,7%-, 1970- 6,2%, 1980- 7,3%- . ,
. 1990-
1
,
.
:
; , ,
(
)
makroekonomika
51 fdp.10C9/27/2010
_ES_50_0921:47:38
8NALBPM
_10M
M01_BLA
M01_BL
ALBPM
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. 6.2-,

.

,
,

,
.

.

(www.bls.gov/cps/).
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,
, ,
, 20
. -8 .
,
. , . 6%- 2001
(, 2003
, , . ,
, -13
). , 7,5%
, 1990-1991 . , 9,7%- (
), 1982 .
? ,
:
Tavi 6
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 15
5
Sromis bazari
CanarTi
, ,
. ,

, :
,
,
,
,
,
:
,
10 20

?

9,7%
.
1982
, , 10,8%-
.
173
9/27/2010
9/27/2010 1:47:39
1:47:37PM
PM
;
.
, .

, . ,
. , , , , .
.
nax. 6 - 3
10.0
1948 - 3%- 10% .
9.0
umuSevroba (procenti)
- 1948
8.0
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
,
:

, , , . ; .
.
,

.
174
174
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 12
10
makroekonomika
9/27/2010 1:47:38 PM
M01_BL
47:38 PM
umuSevarTa
wili, romlebmac
ipoves samuSao
yovelTviurad
18
20
8
22
7
25
6
umuSevrobis
done
28
33
1968 1999

, ,
, . , .
40
3
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
11
3.75
umuSevrobis
done
10
3.50
9
3.25
8
3.00
samuSaoTa
dakargvis
saSualoTviuri
norma
2.75
2.50
4
2.25
3
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
nax. 6 - 5

1968-1999
,
.
1995
Tavi 6
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
samuSaos dakargvis saSualoTviuri norma (procenti)
umuSevrobis done (procenti)
10
nax. 6 - 4
16
umuSevarTa wili, romlebmac ipoves samuSao

(Sebrunebuli Skala) (procenti)
11
Sromis bazari
175
9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM
,
. 6.5- , ,
,
.
.

,

, - ,
. ,

,
( ,
)
,
.
, ,
, . .
6.4 . 6.5 - 1968-1999
.
. 6.4- :
( )
,
( ). . ,
,
, , . , , .

:
. , 1980-1982 , 25%-
, 16%- .
, .6.5
( ) ( ) . (
)
. . 6.5- . 6.4- ,
, , .
.. .
: , :
176
176
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 12
10

;
,
.
makroekonomika
9/27/2010 1:47:38 PM
M01_BL
47:38 PM
6. 3
xelfasis gansazRvra
,
.
. ..
. , -, , , . , , -
15%- .
, .
, . ,
, - (take-it-leave-it base) . , , .
()
.
.
.
, .
, .
.
, ,

? , . , ,
.
:

(
)
( )
.
, , , () .
, , .
,
, .
, , . , (
).
Tavi 6
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
Sromis bazari
177
9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM

: ,
, , . , , ,
. .
xelSekruleba
, ,
: ,
; , , .

, .
:

? : ,
,
.
. ,

; , ,
,
, . ,
.
, ,
: ,
. ,
. ,

. ,
,
, .
,
, , .
efeqtiani xelfasi
, .
178
178
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10
makroekonomika
9/27/2010 1:47:38 PM
M01_BL
47:38 PM
. , ,
. ,
,
. , .

. .
:

. ,
.
- , (. : ). ,
, .
, , , , :
2001 11 ,
. ,

, ,
,
.
,
,
, ,
;
.

: ,
. , , , ,
, , . ,
, .
xelfasi, fasebi da dasaqmeba

W = P e F (u , z )
(, +)
(6.1)
Tavi 6
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
Sromis bazari
179
9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM
CanarTi
henri fordi da efeqtiani xelfasi

1914 , (Henry
Ford),
T- , .
, ,
5 .
,
$2,30- ,
.

,

.
,
. . ,
, ,
. .

,
,
, .
( ), 1913 370%-
, 1915 16%-
(
370%- ,
31% , ,
31%12=370% ).
62%- 0% .
(
), 1913
10%- ,
2,4%- . ,
.
1, W, :
, Pe;
, u;
, z, , .
-.
fasebis mosalodneli done

:
1
, , ,
( ,
) ( )
180
180
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 12
10
makroekonomika
9/27/2010 1:47:38 PM
M01_BL
47:38 PM
cxrili 1
,
, 5
, ,
. , ,
, :

, ,
, .
: Dan Raff and Lawrence Summers,
Did Henry Ford Pay Efficiency Wages?
Journal of Labor Economics,
1987.
denadobis da droebiTi ganTavisuflebis

koeficientebi (%) fordis kompaniaSi
1913-1915 wlebSi
denadobis koeficienti
droebiTi ganTavisuflebis
koeficienti
1913
370
62
1914
54
1915
16
0.1
CanarTi
,
? . 1914
1913 . 30%- 50%- .
, 1914 , 1913 , .
,
T- ,
.
? , , , :
, , , . ,
, W, , , W,
, P, , .
, W/P.
, ,
W, ,
, P, . ,
, W/P- .
:
, ,
Tavi 6
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
Sromis bazari
181
9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM
. ,
,
.
, , ,
.
(6.1) :
.
, : , Pe , P-? ,
()
1 .
, - . ,
,
. ,

, , ,
. , , (
, .
).
umuSevrobis done
(6.1) , u, . u- ,
.
, ,
. , , .
,
,
.
1 , , ( )
182
182
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10
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9/27/2010 1:47:38 PM
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47:38 PM
sxva faqtorebi
(6.1) z ,

. , z-
,
((6.1) z- ).

.
, .
, , .
. ,
.
, , , , . ,
.
, z
: ,
.
.
, , ,
, , W- .
() ,
. ,
, ( ),

.
.
6. 4
z-
.
fasis gansazRvra
, .
. , ,
Tavi 6
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
Sromis bazari
183
9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM
.
,

.
,
.
:
Y = AN
Y , N , A
.
, A- .
, . , :
-, ; , , . ,
, , A, . -7
, ; -10 -13 ,
.
,
, .
, A- , , , , A=1 (
A , ). , , :
Y=N
(6.2)
(6.2) ,
, W- . : ,
,
, W- .
,
, . . P = W.
, , ,
184
184
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10
makroekonomika
9/27/2010 1:47:38 PM
M01_BL
47:38 PM
. , , :
P = (1 + )W
(6.3)
.
, , , P,
, W-. ,
, P W- (1+ )- .
6. 5
,
.
, , , P, Pe
( , ).
,
. , .

,
Pe=P.
xelfaswarmoqmnis (xelfasis gansazRvris)

damokidebuleba
,
P, , Pe, (6.1) :
W = PF (u , z )
:
W
= F (u , z )
P
(, +)
(6.4)
,
, W/P, , u,
: , , .
: ,
.
Tavi 6
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
Sromis bazari
:
,

, - .
185
9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM

, ( ) . 6.6-.
, .
WS :
, .
faswarmoqmnis (fasebis gansazRvris) damokidebuleba

.
(6.3)
, :
P
= 1+
W
(6.5)
, , 1- . , :
W
1
=
P 1+
(6.6)
, : . ,
,
.
(6.5) (6.6)
. ,
,
. , ,
.
: ,

.
, , , , .
, ,
. , , ( ) .
186
186
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10
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9/27/2010 1:47:38 PM
M01_BL
47:38 PM
nax. 6 - 6
realuri xelfasi, W/P

,
()

.
faswarmoqmnis damokidebuleba
PS
WS
xelfasis gansazRvris damokidebuleba
un
umuSevrobis done, u
(6.6) ( )
. 6.6- , PS,
. , 1/(1+), .
wonasworuli realuri xelfasi da umuSevroba

, ,
,
,
(
,
.
, .
). . 6.6-
A , , un-.

. (6.4) (6.6)
W/P ,
. :
F (un , z ) =
1
1+
(6.7)
Tavi 6
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Sromis bazari
187
9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM
(Websters) ,
, ,
.
. .
, , un, ,
, ((6.7) ), ,
((6.7) ).
un-
( n ). , , , ,
.
, ,
. ,
, . , , z .
:
: ,
, .
.

.

z- : ,
,
. , . 6.7- WS
WS'- . PS A- A
. un- un'-
.
: , . , , .
, , - .
, , . 6.8- ,
PS- PS- . WS
. A- A- ,
un- un- .
: , ,
, . ,
.

,
188
188
12
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makroekonomika
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M01_BL
47:38 PM
. ,
. , ,
,
.

(Edmund
Phelps)
. 2006 .

-8 27- .
nax. 6 - 7
PS

.
WS
WS
un
un
umuSevrobis done, u
nax. 6 - 8
1
PS
PS
WS
un
un
umuSevrobis done, u
Tavi 6
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
Sromis bazari
189
9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM
umuSevrobidan dasaqmebamde

1, ,
.
,
. U , N-
, L- . :
u=
L = N +U U = L N
U LN
N
=
=1
L
L
L
u- ; , , , , U, , L,
, N; . : , u, 1
, N, , L .

:
N = L(1 u )
, N, , L, 1- u-
.
, u n , , L, , Nn, :
N n = L(1 un )
, 150 -
5%- , 150(1 0,05)=142,5 .
- ,
. ,
. ,
(natural level of employment) ,
(natural rate of unemployment) , ,
. ,
, , ,
,
. (
)
190
190
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dasaqmebidan gamoSvebamde
,
. (Y=N) , ,
, Yn- . :
Yn = N n = L(1 un )
u n (6.7) . , :
F (1
Yn
1
, z) =
L
1+
(6.8)
, Yn, , (un=1-Yn/L)
((6.8) ) ((6.8) ) . , -7
, (6.8) , .
. :
,
. :
,
, ;
,
() , ;
, ,
, () ;
;
,
;

.
Tavi 6
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
Sromis bazari
191
9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM
6. 6
aqedan saiT mivdivarT
- ,
( ), ,
, .
, ?
, , ,
?
, , , , .. ,
(6.8) , ,
?
:
,
..

,
.

,
.

. ,
; , , .
, .
, . ,
, ,
, .
-7 , , .. , . ( ) .
(, ). , ,
, ,
. , (6.7) (6.8)
, .
, .
192
192
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10
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9/27/2010 1:47:38 PM
M01
M01_BL
47:38 PM
Sejameba
,
().

.
.
- ,

. ,
, 45%
,
,
.

.
,
.

, .

.
,
, ,
.

, , .
. ,
, , ,
, .
,
,
,
,
.

.
.
, ,
.
,

.
,
,
;
, .
sakvanZo terminebi

, 168
;
, 168
,168
, 168

, , 169

(CPS), 169
,
, 169
,170
, 170
,171
Tavi 6
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 16
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
Sromis bazari
193
193
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9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM
() , 177
, 178
, 179
, 183
, 184
, 184
, 185
() , 186
()
, 187
, 190
, 190
,
190
, 191
1. , , . :
. 1950 ,
- 60%- ;
. , ,
, ;
. 10%-
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 16
;
.
;
. , , ;
. ,
,
;
.

;
.
.
2. :
.
(.. 194
194
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 12
16
10
)
?
.
?
.
?
?
.
9/27/2010

?
.
?
3.
,
5%- , :
W=P(1-u), u :
. , ?
. ?
. , 10%-
.
?
.
1:47:40 PM
makroekonomika
makroekonomika
9/27/2010 1:47:38
1:47:40 PM
M01
M01_BL
47:40 PM
47:38
47:40 PM
4. ()
1980- ,
, 10 000
(, ).
. ?
.

?
. , ,
:
10 ?
.
() () .
5.

, ,
.

.
.
.
.
? ?
.

?
,
?
. ,
(,
() ),

. -
? ?

?
6.
. , . ?
?

,
?

,
?
. () , ? (
,
?)
7.
-2 , (,
, )
.
. ,
, 100
25 .

, , . , ,
,

.
, , 25 ( )
. . 25
( , ,
). , -
Tavi 6
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M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
Sromis bazari
195
195
9/27/2010 1:47:40 PM
9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM
, 25 .
:
. , .

.
?
. , .
10 . 10 . 15

. 15
.
, ,
?

?
. ,
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 16
.
?
,
?
. ()
? , ,
, ,
?
, ()
196
196
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 12
16
10
8.
,
45% .
. , ?
? ?
. ,
,
. ,
x- (, x ). 45%
.
. x ,
.
9/27/2010

? (: 45%
, x
?).
. x

? (: ()
,
, ?)
, x ?
(,
). -
1:47:40 PM
makroekonomika
makroekonomika
9/27/2010 1:47:38
1:47:40 PM
M01
M01_BL
,
,
, .
. B-44
(www.access.gpo.gov/eop/)
,
1996-2003

(27 ) .
()
?

? (: , ,
,
).
9. -
(www.bls.gov). .
:
. - ,

?
. ?
.
?
.

? .
, Prentice Hall- :
47:40 PM
47:38
47:40 PM
damatebiTi wasakiTxi

, : Richard Layard, Stephen
Nickell and Richard Jackman In Unemployment Crisis Oxford University Press, Oxford,
UK, 1994.
Tavi 6
5 17
Sromis bazari
197
9/27/2010
1:47:40
9/27/2010
1:47:37
PM PM
xelfasisa da fasis gansazRvris damokidebuleba Sromaze moTxovnasa

da Sromis miwodebasTan SedarebiT
198
198
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 12
10
:
.
xelfasis
formireba
faswarmoqmna
,
, ,

.
:
, ?
,
. , ,
, . 6.6 : , ( ).
. 1-.
, N, .
L- ( )

, .. .
N U
U=L-N. , ,
L-
: L- N-
. , N,
, ,
, u.

.

(
) , ,

. ,
danarTi:
U
Nn
dasaqmeba, N
1 ,

W/P=1/(1+) .
A ,
Nn.
,
un=(L-Nn)/L- .
. 1- .
,
.
, .
,
, ,
.

makroekonomika
9/27/2010 1:47:38 PM
M01_BL
47:38 PM

.
, ,

, : ; . ,
,
, .
,
:

,

: ,
.
,
,
,

, . ,
, .
, ,

.
, , ,
. ,
, ,
, ,
.
,

, , . , ,
.
.
-
:

.
,
, , . ,
, .
,
, , , -
.
,

-

.
Tavi 6
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
Sromis bazari
199
9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM
200
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 10
9/27/2010 1:47:38 PM

AS - AD modeli
TavSi ganvixileT, Tu rogor ganisazRvreba gamoSveba moklevadian

periodSi. me-6 TavSi ganvixileT gamoSvebis gansazRvra saSualovadian
periodSi. amJamad, mzad varT, orive gavaerTianoT da vnaxoT, Tu rogor
ganisazRvreba gamoSveba mokle- da saSualovadian periodebSi.
am miznis misaRwevad Cven mier aqamde ganxilul yvela bazris - saqonlisa da finansuri
bazrebis (romelic me-5 TavSi ganvixileT) da Sromis bazris (romelic me-6 TavSi ganvixileT)
- wonasworobis pirobebs gamoviyenebT. Sedegad miviRebT or damokidebulebas:
pirveli damokidebuleba, romelsac erToblivi miwodebis damokidebuleba vuwodeT, Sromis
bazarze arsebul wonasworobas asaxavs da me-6 TavSi ganxilul sakiTxebs eyrdnoba;
meore damokidebuleba, romelsac erToblivi moTxovnis damokidebuleba vuwodeT, saqonlisa da finansur bazrebze wonasworobis Sedegebs asaxavs da me-5 TavSi ganxilul sakiTxebs eyrdnoba.
aRniSnuli ori damokidebulebis gaerTianeba AD-AS (erToblivi moTxovna-erToblivi
miwodeba) models gvaZlevs. am TavSi modelis ZiriTadi versiaa warmodgenili. es aris
versia, romelsac, Cveulebisamebr, me viyeneb makroekonomikuri sakiTxebis gaazrebisaTvis.
amasTan, zogierTi sakiTxisTvis (kerZod, inflaciis Sesaswavlad) ZiriTadi AD-AS modeli
unda gafarTovdes. amas momdevno or TavSi gavakeTebT.
mocemuli Tavi Semdegnairadaa agebuli:
7.1 nawilSi warmodgenilia erToblivi miwodebis, xolo 7.2 nawilSi - erToblivi

moTxovnis damokidebuleba;
7.3 nawilSi Tavmoyrilia es ori damokidebuleba, romelic wonasworul

gamoSvebas mokle da saSualovadian periodebSi aRwers;
7.4 - 7.6 nawilebSi naCvenebia, rogor gamoviyenoT mocemuli modeli

monetaruli da fiskaluri politikisa da navTobis fasis cvlilebis
dinamikuri efeqtebis gansaxilvelad;
7.7 nawili Semajamebelia.
Tavi 7
me-5
201
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3
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1:47:35 PM
7. 1
erToblivi miwodeba
. , -6 .
-6
[(6.1) ]:
W = P e F (u , z )
, W,
, , Pe,
, u, , z, , - - .
, -6
[(6.3) ]:
P = (1 + ) W
(, ),
P , W, , - .
-6 - - .
.

( , , , , ).
,

.
(6.1) (6.3)
W. (6.3)- W (6.1)-
. :
P = P e (1 + ) F (u , z )
(7.1)
, P, , Pe,
, u, (, , ,
, z, -
).
202
202
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, u, . u- ,
, -6
:
u=
U LN
N
Y
=
= 1 = 1
L
L
L
L

, - ( U L N )
- , -
, ,
: Y = N . ,
u = 1
Y
L
: ,
, .
(7.1) u - 1 (Y L ) .
, AS :
P = P e (1 + ) F (1
Y
, z)
L
(7.2)
, P, , Pe,
, Y (, , ,
, z , , L, ,
). AS .
AS ,
,
:
1.
2.
,
;
3.
4.

, .
AS ,

. , ,
. :
Tavi 7 yvela bazris gaerTianeba: AS - AD modeli
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
. ,

(
),
.
.
Y-
- P-
-
P e- P-
- .
203
9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM
1.
, .
, ,
,
.
2.
, P, , Y , ,
Pe . 7.1- AS . AS ,
:
.
, , Y, , P, .
, .
A , Y = Yn-,
P = Pe-. , , Y,
, Yn, , , P, , Pe, .
? ,
-6 . , (, , ) ,
(, , ), , . ,

:
,
. . 7.1- Y
, Yn, P Pe. ,
,
nax. 7 - 1
AS
miwode-
,

.
,
.
fasebis done, P
erToblivi
bis mrudi
Pe
Yn
gamoSveba, Y
204
204
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9/27/2010 1:47:38 PM
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47:38 PM
nax. 7 - 2
AS
(roca P
> P e)
fasebis done , P
AS
P
Pe
( P e fasebis
mosalodneli
donisTvis )
fasebis mosalodneli
donis zrdis gavlena
erToblivi miwodebis
mrudze
.
Yn
gamoSveba, Y
. . 7.1-, Y Yn- , P Pe.
, Pe, ,
, , .
. 7.2 - . , Pe- Pe- .
, , , ,
, , . ,
, : ,
. , , A ( Y = Yn P = Pe), A ( Y = Yn, P = P e).
, ,
,
.
, :
, ,
;
, ,
.
;

,
, ,
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
205
9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM
7. 2
erToblivi moTxovna

. -5
.
-5 [(5.2)
] :
Y = C (Y T ) + I (Y , i ) + G
, , ,
. IS .
-5 , ,
[(5.3) ] :
M
= YL(i )
P
,
, LM .
, LM
, M/P. -5 ,
, M- . ,
, M/P, , ,
, P- . , 10%- ,
10%- , .. 10%- .
IS LM . .
7-3 - .
. 7.3 () - IS LM . IS G T -
. LM M/P-
. .., , , ,
() . IS
LM A .
, , P- P-
. , M- 206
206
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 12
10
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9/27/2010 1:47:38 PM
M01_BL
47:38 PM
, P , M/P, . , LM : . IS
A- A . i- i- ,
Y- Y- . ,
.
:
.
, , ,
.
AD . 7.3 (). A A , . 7.3 ()- A A . 7.3 ()-.

P- P- Y- Y . .
.
nax. 7 - 3
LM
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LM
( P - sTvis )
erToblivi moTxovnis mrudis ageba

.

, ,

(

),
.
, , . .
IS
Y
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A
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M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
207
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, ,
IS LM , , .
nax. 7 - 4

,
,
;

, ,
fasebis done, P
erToblivi moTxovnis mrudis gadaadgileba

saxelmwifo xarjebis
zrda
AD
nominaluri
fulis Semcireba
AD
AD
Y
gamoSveba,Y
,
,
.
, , , , G,
. , , : .7.4 ,
, AD - AD - .
, M- . ,
. .7.4- , AD- AD- .
- , :
Y =Y(
M
, G, T )
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, G, , T, .
,
.. M-, G - T - , ,
P, , M/P, , ,
, . , . 7-3
()- AD .
208
208
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9/27/2010 1:47:38 PM
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, :
, ;
,
.
;
, , , , ,
IS LM ,
.
7. 3
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7.2 :
AS :
P = P e (1 + ) F (1
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Y =Y(
Y
, z)
L
M
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)
M, G T (
) , , Y, , P, .
, Pe . Pe
( . 7.2-), , , . Pe ,
, . ,
, Pe ,
.
, Pe- , . ,
Pe
.
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
209
9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM

. 7.5-.
AS Pe . : ,
. Pe-.
7.1 , ,
, . , .7.5 - B
: Y=Yn, P=Pe.
, AD, M, G T
. : ,
.
AS AD A . , A
, , .
, A . , A . Y
P .
, , , Y, , Yn .
(, , Pe ),
(, , M, G T ). -
nax. 7 - 5
fasebis done, P
. A
,
..
AS
P
Pe
AD
Yn
gamoSveba, Y
210
210
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10
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, Y , Yn.
,
. AS AD , ,
Yn, .
. 7.5 ,
: , .
,
.
?
, , , . 7.5 - .
?
? ,
? ,
.
moklevadianidan saSualovadian periodamde

, , .7.6.
, AS AD , ,
. 7.5-. A ,
.7.5- A . Y-
Yn- .
7.1 , , ,
.
.
, , , Pe -, ,
Pe > Pe-.
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,
.
, , , . , .
AS , AD . A- A- . Y- Y- .
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
, , , ,
,
,
,

.
,
.
..
211
9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM
AS
nax. 7 - 6
gamoSvebis SesabamisobaSi moyvana1

, AS
,
.
212
212
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 12
10
AS
fasebis done, P
1

,
(
).
AS
A
A
A
P
Pe
AD
Yn
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A . A , Y, , ,
.
, .
,
Yn- , AS . AS AD , .
, , ? , , AS AS ,
A Yn- . A
, .
, AS
A .
:
, . , .
. .
, .
; . , .
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9/27/2010 1:47:38 PM
M01_BL
47:38 PM
. , , .
, ,
. AS
AD ,
.
, :
. , , .
, ,
.
. , .
. , ,
.
: Y
Yn.
: Y
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:
; , ,
, .
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? M-
M- ?

-

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.7.7. , A , Yn-
, P -.
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
213
9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM
nax. 7 - 7
,
.
fasebis done, P
monetaruli eqspansiis dinamikuri Sedegebi
AS
AS
A
P
P
AD
AD
Yn
Y
gamoSveba,Y
, . (7.3)
:
Y =Y(
AD
,
AD ,
.
: ,
( )
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,
AS
.
: ,
( )
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214
214
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 12
10
M
, G, T )
P
, P, ,
M, , M/P, ,
. AD-
AD- . A- A-
; Yn- Y-, P- P- .
,
. , , .
.
. AD .
, .
. AS ,
A , Yn
P .
:
, makroekonomika
9/27/2010 1:47:38 PM
M01_BL
47:38 PM
(7.3) : Y ( G T),
),
M/P - ;
. :
.
10 , 10 .
M/P , M
P,, , .
scenis miRma
, , , ,
, . , IS-LM .
. 7.8 () .7.7- ( ,
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nax. 7 - 8
AS
fasebis done, P
(a)
gamoSvebasa da saprocento ganakveTze monetaruli eqspansiis

dinamikuri gavlena
P
P
AD
AD
Yn
gamoSveba,Y
,

, LM
. ,

LM ,
.
(b)
LM
LM
i
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B
Yn
IS
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M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
215
9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM
. . 7.8 ()
,
IS-LM . .7.8 ()
. , IS LM
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. , Yn- ,
i.
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.
.
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,
, .
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B .
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.
: LM , , LM , , , LM . , LM
LM A .
, , , .
LM . IS : . , LM ,
.
A , .7.8 ()- A :
216
216
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 12
10
makroekonomika
9/27/2010 1:47:38 PM
M01_BL
47:38 PM
. , , , Yn-
. , i
.
fulis neitraluroba
, , - , , :
,
, .
, , . -5 ,
; ,
. , , , .
, . 5.9- : ,
.
.
.
(, , , : ?). , ,

.
, , ,
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,
, .
, .
, ,
. -5 , 2001
. ,
.
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
217
9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM
ramden xans grZeldeba fulis realuri efeqti?
gadaxris procenti
CanarTi

,
.

.
, ,
(John Taylor),
1990- .
, ,
.
, - ; ,
- ,
, (: ,
3.2
3.0
2.8
2.6
2.4
2.2
2.0
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
fasebis done
gamoSveba
1
nax. 1
, ). , , , , (
(OECD)
) . ,
,
, .
.1- , () ,
. , 3 -
6
weli
10
nominaluri fulis eqspansiis Sedegi

teiloris modelis mixedviT
wyaro: nax.1 warmoadgens reproduqcias wignidan: Macroeconomic Policy in a

World Economy, W.W. Norton, New York, 1993, nax. 5-1A, gv.138.
218
218
12
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 10
makroekonomika
9/27/2010 1:47:38 PM
M01_BL
47:38 PM
,
: 0,1 , 0,6
, 1,2 1,1 .
, ,
.
. 1,8
, .

. 2,5
, , 0,3 .
, -
7. 5

, . ,
, .
? . ,

, , . , :

, (,
,
, 24-

).
biujetis deficitis Semcireba
, , , , , , , LM .
, IS
.
,
G- G- , , , T-
. -
?
Yn- . 7.9 A . G- G-
, AD- AD .
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. -3 .
? , -
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
-5 ,

,
.
219
9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM
nax. 7 - 9
AS
biujetis deficitis
Semcirebis dinamikuri efeqti
fasebis done,P
,
, ,
.
AS
A
P
P
AD
AD
Yn
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,
,
. (,
-2 ).
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(,
M )
, ,
. ,
,
, ,
,

.
. , AD- , AS, , A .
Yn- .
, . ,
. ,
. A ,
: , , .
IS-LM .
deficitis Semcireba, gamoSveba da saprocento ganakveTi

. 7.10 () .7.9- (, AS ,
) . . 7.10 () ,
IS-LM .
. 7.10 ()-. , IS LM
A , . 7.10 ()- A . , Yn- ,
i.
220
220
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 12
10
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(a)
fasebis done, P
AS
nax. 7 - 10
biujetis deficitis
Semcirebis dinamikuri gavlena gamoSvebasa da saprocento ganakveTze
P
A
AD
AD
Y
Yn
gamoSveba,Y
.

, , .
LM
(b)
saprocenti ganakveTi, i
LM
LM
i
B
i
i
IS
A
A
IS
Yn
gamoSveba,Y
, IS , IS . (, -5 ), A B . , , , ,
LM LM .
, A A
( . 7.10 ()- A )
. , , ,
, . : -5 , . , .
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
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, , . LM . . 7.10 ()- AS A- A ( . 7.10 ()- A

). A LM LM .
A ,
, , , i- i-.
. , , ,
, IS ,
, A , , Y = Yn.
Yn = C (Yn T ) + I (Yn , i ) + G
, , Yn , T, , , C, , . , , G, .
, , I,
, . , , G- . ,

.
biujetis deficiti, gamoSveba da investicia

, ,
:
-5 .
. 7.10-.

,

?
222
222
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 12
10
,
, . : ,

- .
, . - 1990- .
, , , .
: -
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9/27/2010 1:47:38 PM
M01_BL
47:38 PM
.

( -10
, , , ). , ,
, .
. ,
,
, .
:
: Y
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.
:
Y , I .
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, I
, ,
,
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,
,
. ,
, , ,
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.
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,
:
. ,
, ,
. . . , 1999 13
, , , 80
. ,
.
,
. 1970-
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M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
223
9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM
600
indeqsi,1970:1
100
500
400
300
200
100
0
1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006
nax. 7-11
navTobis realuri fasi 1970 wlidan
1970-ian wlebSi navTobis fardobiTi fasis mkveTri zrda orjer aRiniSna,
rasac 1990-ian wlebSi Tan axlda Semcireba Semdeg ki mniSvnelovani zrda.
(2007 ),

1981
. ,
,
1981

224
224
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 12
10
Countries) , ,
,
, :
1973-75 1979-81 . . 7.11
, 1970
( 1970 100). , 1981 ,
1970 ,
. . 1982 1990-

. 1998
1970 . ,
, ,
1980- .
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9/27/2010 1:47:38 PM
M01_BL
47:38 PM
nax. 7 - 12
PS
A
>
PS
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WS
un
navTobis fasis zrdis

gavlena umuSevrobis
bunebriv doneze

.
un
umuSevrobis done, u
1970- ,
. , ( ) ,
. ,
. . , ,
.
, ,
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. -
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.
:
,
.
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
225
9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM
gavlena umuSevrobis bunebriv doneze
: u
. u
,
.
,
? . 7.12 , -6 . . W/
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un- .
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: , .
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,
.
. , , ,
,
,
. , : .
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, , . , . 7.13-
AD , AS
A , Yn P=Pe.
- , . Yn
-. , Yn- Yn-.
, :
P = P e (1 + ) F (1
Y
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L
,
. , (Pe ),
, - .
, , , 226
226
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 12
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nax. 7 - 13
AS
AS
navTobis fasis zrdis

dinamikuri efeqti
fasebis done, P
AS

.

..
A
A
Pe
AD
Y
Y Yn
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, . , .
,
. 7.1 , ,
,
. ,
. 7.13- A ,
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B , , Yn- , Pe- .
AS- AS- .
? . ,
, , : -
/
. .
, . ,
: , , ,
, , ,
.
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
227
9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM
600
14
12
500
10
400
8
navTobis realuri fasi

300
6
200
4
100
0
1970
inflacia (procenti)
inflacia
0
1974
1978
1982
1986
1990
weli
1994
1998
2002
2006
nax. 7-14
navTobis fasis zrda da inflacia aSS-Si 1970 wlidan
1970-ian wlebSi navTobis fasis zrdam inflaciis zrda gamoiwvia,

magram msgavs Sedegs ar hqonda adgili navTobis fasis zrdis amaswinandel SemTxvevaSi.

1970 .
(OPEC) ,
.
.
,
AS . , AD , A- A . Yn- Y- . , .
? A
Y- , Yn/ -
. . , ,
A- A- . A
, Yn/ - , , .
, , .
, 1970- ,
? . 7.14-, ,
228
228
makroekonomika
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 12
10
9/27/2010 1:47:38 PM
M01_BL
umuSevrobis done
500
8
400
7
300
6
200
navTobis realuri
fasi
100
3
1970
47:38 PM
600
10
0
1974
1978
1982
1986
1990
weli
1994
1998
2002
2006
nax. 7-15
navTobis fasis zrda da umuSevroba SeerTebul StatebSi 1970 wlidan
1970-ian wlebSi navTobis fasis zrda umuSevrobis did zrdasTan iyo dakavSirebuli,
magram msgavs Sedegs ar hqonda adgili navTobis fasis zrdis amaswinandel SemTxvevaSi.
, 1970 . 7.15, 1970

.
, ( ,
): , , , , .
. , ( ): , , 1990-
, , ,
, . , 1970- ,
. ,
: 2000- 1970-
?.
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
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2000- ?
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,
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,
1970 1986
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). : , ,
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; ,
samomxmareblo fasebis indeqsis reaqcia 1987 wlamde
samomxmareblo fasebis zrdis reaqcia 1987 wlis Semdeg
2
procenti
CanarTi
navTobze fasis zrda: 2000-iani wlebi 1970-iani

wlebisagan ratom gansxvavdeba ase Zalian?
0
2
mTlian Sida produqtis reaqcia 1987 wlis Semdeg
4
6
mTlian Sida produqtis reaqcia 1987 wlamde
8
1
nax. 1
10
11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
navTobis fasis 100-procentiani zrdis gavlena samomxmareblo

fasebis indeqsze da mTlian Sida produqtze
navTobis fasis zrdis gavlena gamoSvebaze da fasebis doneze ufro mcirea, vidre Cveulebriv iyo xolme.
230
230
12
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 10
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M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
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9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM

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monetaruli eqspansiis, biujetis deficitis Semcirebis da navTobis fasis zrdis

mokle- da saSualovadiani gavlena gamoSvebaze, saprocento ganakveTsa da fasebis doneze
gamoSvebis
moculoba
saprocento
ganakveTi
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gamoSvebis
moculoba
saprocento
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fasebis done
monetaruli eqspansia
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kleba
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kleba
kleba (mcire)
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kleba
kleba
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kleba
zrda
zrda
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232
232
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10
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9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM
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9/27/2010 1:47:40 PM
9/27/2010 1:47:38 PM
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M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
239
239
9/27/2010 1:47:40 PM
9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM
umuSevrobis
bunebrivi done
da filipsis mrudi
wels, a.u. fili psma (A.W. Phillips) daxaza diagrama, romelzec gamosaxuli iyo inflaciis tempi umuSevrobis donesTan mimarTebaSi gaerTianebul samefoSi, 1861-dan 1957 wlamde yoveli wlisTvis. man inflaciasa da umuSevrobas Soris uaryofiTi kavSiris aSkara faqti
aRmoaCina: rodesac umuSevrobis done dabali iyo, inflacia maRali iyo, da rodesac umuSevroba
iyo maRali, inflacia dabali iyo.
ori wlis Semdeg pol samuelsonma (Paul Samuelson) da robert soloum (Robert Solow) fili psis
gamocdileba gaimeores aSS-Tvis, sadac 1900-1960 wlebis monacemebi gamoiyenes. nax. 8.1 am Sedegebs warmogvidgens. inflaciis sazomad samomxmareblo fasebis indeqsi iqna gamoyenebuli. garda
1930-iani wlebis Zalian maRali umuSevrobis donisa (1931-dan 1939 wlamde periodi samkuTxedebiTaa aRniSnuli da naxatze naTladaa gamokveTili marTkuTxedebis marjvniv), aSS-Si inflaciasa da
umuSevrobas Soris uaryofiTi damokidebuleba aRmoCnda.
es damokidebuleba, romelic samuelsonma da soloum fili psis mrudad monaTles, makroekonomikuri azrovnebisa da politikisaTvis centralur gansazRvrebad swrafad iqca. igulisxmeboda,
rom qveynebs SeeZloT umuSevrobisa da inflaciis sxvadasxva kombinacias Soris arCevanis gakeTeba. qveyanas SeeZlo umuSevrobis dabali donis miRweva, Tu is mzad iqneboda, Sehgueboda ufro
maRal inflacias, an mas SeeZlo fasebis donis stabilizaciis, nulovani inflaciis, miRweva, Tu is
maRal umuSevrobas Seegueboda. makroekonomikur politikaze msjelobis mniSvnelovani nawili
exeboda diskusias imis Sesaxeb, Tu romeli wertili unda arCeuliyo fili psis mrudze.
moxda ise, rom 1970-ian wlebSi damokidebuleba dairRva. aSS-sa da ekonomikuri TanamSromlobisa da ganviTarebis organizaciis (OECD) mraval qveyanaSi adgili hqonda maRal inflaciasa da
umuSevrobas, rac aSkarad ewinaaRmdegeboda fili psis Tavdapirvel mruds. Tanafardoba kvlav
gaCnda, magram, amjerad, rogorc Tanafardoba umuSevrobis donesa da inflaciis tempis cvlilebas
Soris. dReisaTvis, aSS-Si maRali umuSevroba ar iwvevs dabal inflacias, magram droTa ganmavlobaSi igi inflaciis tempis Semcirebas iwvevs da, piriqiT, dabali umuSevroba ar iwvevs maRal
inflacias, magram inflaciis tempis droTa ganmavlobaSi zrdas ganapirobebs.
am Tavis mizani fili psis mrudis transformaciis gaanalizeba da, ufro zogadad, inflaciasa
da umuSevrobas Soris kavSiris gagebaa. Tqven naxavT, rom is, rac aRmoaCina fili psma, erToblivi
miwodebis damokidebulebaa da rom fili psis mrudis transformacia adamianebisa da firmebis molodinis formirebis cvlilebebidan gamomdinareobs.
Tavi Sedgeba sami nawilisgan:
8.1 nawili gviCvenebs, Tu rogor SegviZlia vifiqroT erToblivi miwodebis damokidebuleba
ze, rogorc inflacias, mosalodnel inflaciasa da umuSevrobas Soris damokidebulebaze.
Tavi 8
1958
8.2 nawili am Tanafardobas fili psis mrudis droSi transformaciis interpretaciisaTvis iyenebs.
241
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
3
9/27/2010 1:47:37
1:47:35 PM
20
()
nax. 8 - 1
inflacia da umuSevroba aSS-Si 1900-dan
1960 wlamde
1900- 1960 ,
, ,

.
15
10
5
0
5
10
15
10
15
20
25
()
8.3 nawilSi farTod ganixileba umuSevrobasa da inflacias Soris damokidebuleba qveynebSi droTa ganmavlobaSi.
8. 1

,
.
,
, .
.
F
,
,
(6.1) , :
inflacia, mosalodneli inflacia da

umuSevroba
, , -7 , , , .
, , , -7 [(7.1) ]:
P = P e (1 + ) F (u , z )
, F , u, , z . ,
:
F (u , z ) = 1 u + z
W = P F (u , z )
e
,
, z- (, ) . ( ) .
242
242
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 12
10
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M01_BL
47:38 PM
F :
P = P e (1 + )(1 u + z )
(8.1)
, , , e - . (8.1) :
= e + ( + z) u
(8.2)
(8.1) (8.2)- , . (8.2)- , . , (8.2) :
, e , , ,
.
, , , (8.1) . , Pe- , P- - :
, , .
, , ,
, , , ..
. ,
,
, ,
, .. . , ,
, : .
, e , , , ,
, z- , , ,
.
(8.1) : ,
e
- , - z- , P- .
,
e
: , ,
, - z- , , .
, e , , , u, , , , .
Tavi 8
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
umuSevrobis bunebrivi done da filipsis mrudi
,

, , ,
, , , .
e- -
z-
243
9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM
u- -
(8.1) : ,Pe - , , u, , ,
P, . , , : e
, , , , u, ,
, .
, :
, , ,
, , . , (8.2) :
t = te + ( + z ) ut
(8.3)
t , te ut t , . , z . ,
,
, z , ,
() .
8. 2
filipsis mrudi
,
, 1960-
.
Tavdapirveli varianti
, , ,
. - . , , 1955 , , , , - 0,3% . ,
,
, , .
, ?
, , 244
244
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 12
10
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9/27/2010 1:47:38 PM
M01_BL
47:38 PM
. , ,
e
, t = 0 . (8.3) :
t = ( + z ) ut
(8.4)
-, . (8.4)-
: , , , ,
. , , .
, , , , ,
, , . , , -
.
.
,
, .
,
.
. , .
, , ,
.
, ,
, .
mutaciebi

. 1960- -
, . 1960- ,

.
. 8.2 - 1948- 1969
. ,
-
Tavi 8
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
245
9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM
nax. 8 - 2
- 1960-
.
()
inflacia da umuSevroba aSS-Si 1948 - 1969

wlebSi
8
7
6
1969
5
1968
1966
1967
2
1965
1964
1963
1962
1961
0
1
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
()
, 1960- . 1961-1969 , , 6,8 3,4 , 1,0 5,5 .

, 1961- 1969 - , ,
.
, 1970 ,
, . 8.2- , . . 8.3
1970 . -
nax. 8-3
- 1970
.
()
inflacia da umuSevroba aSS-Si 1970-ian

wlebSi
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
4
10
()
246
246
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 12
10
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M01_BL
47:38 PM
:
.
?
:
- 1970- , , (. -7 ). ,
, , , , ,
, , . (8.3) , -
. 1970-
, ,
, .
. , ,
. . 8.4-, 1900 - . 1960- (
), :
,
, 1960-
; ,
.
.
, ,
,
, , -
nax. 8-4
20
inflacia aSS-Si 1900

wlidan
()
15
10
1960- -
.

: , ,
.
10
15
1905
1915
1925
1935
1945
1955
1965
1975
1985
1995
2005
()
Tavi 8
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
247
9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM
, , . . ,
,

.

.
, . , , :
te = t 1
(8.5)
( )
, t 1, , te , . - ,
, . ,
1970- - :
,
.
?
?
, , ,
. ,
,
: te = 0 ;
, . , ,
, . ,
, .
, 1970-
, .
, 1- .
- . , te -
(8.5) - (8.3)
te
t = t 1 + ( + z) ut
248
248
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 12
10
0- , ,
:
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M01_BL
47:38 PM
t = ( + z ) ut
, , :
t = t 1 + ( + z ) ut
1- , ( ) :
t t 1 = ( + z ) ut
(8.6)
, =1,
, :
; .
, 1970 .
0- 1- ,
. .
8.3-. , , , (8.6)
.
, 1970 , . 8.5-.
-
()
5.0
, ,
(. -3 ). ,
. ,

,
. .
nax. 8 - 5
inflaciis cvlileba
da umuSevroba aSS-Si
1970 wlidan
2.5
- 1970
.
0.0
pt 2 pt1 5 4.4% 2 0.73 ut
22.5
25.0
4
10
()
Tavi 8
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
249
9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM
. ,
1970- 2006 , :
t t 1 = 4, 4% 0, 73ut
ut-

:
ut-

(8.7)
. 8.5-. , , . .
[(8.4) ] , (8.6) , (8.7)-, ,
( , t 1 ), ( , , , ) . (8.6) , ,
, - (8.4) .
ukan umuSevrobis bunebrivi donisaken

, -6 .
1976 ,
2006 .
250
250
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 12
10
, , :
, .
1960- ,
, ,
(Milton Friedman) (Edmund Phelps),
. ,
, , , . , , ,
,
,
.
(.
:
). ,
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9/27/2010 1:47:38 PM
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47:38 PM
, ,
, .
, .
(. -6 ), . ,
, .
un - ( n e
). , ( ( t = t ) ) (8.3) :
0 = ( + z ) un
, :
un =
+z
(8.8)
, , ,
, z,
.
(8.3) :
+z
t te = ut
, (8.8) , un- , , , :
t te = (ut un )
(8.9)
te
, t 1 -, - , (8.9) :
t t 1 = (ut un )
(8.10)
(8.10) :
, , , , ut,
, un,, , t t 1, .
Tavi 8
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
251
9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM
ut < un t > t 1
ut > un t < t 1

,
, .
,
,
, NIIRU (NIIRU
non-increasing inflation rate of
unemployment) NAIRU.
, NAIRU , .
1997- 2006 , 4,9
. ,
2006
1997 .
, -
6 .
.
. , , ; ,
, .
,
:
,
. , , (NAIRU non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment).
- 1970 ?
: , ?
, , (8.7) , 1970 .
4,4%/0,73=6%. : ,
, 1970- , - , , 6
.
8. 3
reziume da mravali gafrTxileba
, , :
-
(8.8) ,
.
,
;
, .
1970 . , , , , . : . .
bunebrivi donis cvlileba qveynebis mixedviT

(8.8) , , z -,
252
252
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 12
10
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47:38 PM
faqtebis winmswrebi Teoria: milton fridmani

da edmund felpsi
, :
,
, ,
,
. ,
,
75%- , , , . ,
, . [
]
, ,

.
:
()
,
; . , ,
.
,

-:
, ,
? ... , ,
, ,
;
, , ,
, , .

. , , .
: Milton Friedman, The Role of Monetary Policy, American Economic Review,

58,1 , 1 1968, 1 17 ( Phelps, Money-Wage Dynamics
and Labor-Market Equilibrium, Journal of Political Economy, 1968, 678-711,
).
CanarTi
, ,

.
.
1960- ,
,
, ,
, , .
, , , .
,
, . , , .
, , , . Tavi 8
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
253
9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM
riT aixsneba evropuli umuSevroba?
CanarTi
254
254
12
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,
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1960- 2- 3
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M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
255
9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM
. , ,
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,

.
, ,
CanarTi
10
, .

. ,
.
: , Olivier Blanchard, European
Unemployment. The Evolution of Facts and Ideas, Economic Policy, Volume 1, 2006, 1-54.
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
a
i
i
i
i
i
i
i
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ia
an
d
umuSevrobis done 15 evropul qveyanaSi , 2006
. ,
.
? .
umuSevrobis bunebrivi donis cvlileba droSi

(8.6) (8.7) +z , . ,
, z . ,
256
256
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 12
10
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9/27/2010 1:47:38 PM
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,
5 , , , 3 .
, ,
, ,
, -
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. 1 . 8.5- ,
1997 . ,
, ,

1970- 2006 [(8.7)
]. , 1997 ,
, (
2003 ),
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,

, , ,
1970-2006 .
,

,
- , , , ,
? 1 ,
inflaciis cvlileba (procenti)
5.0
2.5
CanarTi
Semcirda Tu ara aSS-Si umuSevrobis bunebrivi done 1990iani wlebis dasawyisidan da Tu Semcirda, ratom?
0.0
2.5
5.0
4
10
nax. 1
inflaciis cvlileba da umuSevroba aSS-Si 1997 wlidan

1997 wlidan, inflaciis cvlileba, rogorc wesi, ufro naklebi iyo, vidre inflaciasa da
umuSevrobas Soris 1970-2003 wlebis periodSi saSualo damokidebulebiT iyo prognozirebuli.
Tavi 8
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
257
9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM
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,
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, . , 10
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258
258
12
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 10
25 , 15 . ,

.
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:

(
16- 24 ) 1980 24 2006 14
( ,
1960- ).

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,
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0,6 .
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.
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1984
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.
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, , , ( -13 ).
: , - , , 5 , 1970- 1980-
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.
: ,
Lawrence Katz and Alan Krueger, The
High-Pressure U.S. Labor Market of the 1990s ,
Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Volume 1,
1999, 1-87.
CanarTi
, . , 2,2
(1984 ) 3,8 (2006 ) .
, , ,
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. , , , . , - ,
1960
.
Tavi 8
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
259
9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM
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M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 16
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
237
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9/27/2010 1:47:40 PM
9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM
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M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 16
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
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M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 16
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 12
10
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9/27/2010 1:47:38 PM
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M01_BL
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M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 16
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
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danarTi:
erToblivi miwodebis damokidebulebidan inflacias,

mosalodnel inflaciasa da umuSevrobas Soris damokidebulebamde
, ,
, (8.1) :
, :
P = P e (1 + )(1 u + z )
,
, . -
(8.2) ,
266
266
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 12
10
= e + ( + z ) u
makroekonomika
9/27/2010 1:47:38 PM
M01_BL
47:38 PM
Pt, Pte ut, t

, .
(8.1) :
Pt = Pt e (1 + )(1 ut + z )
.

Pt 1 :
e
Pt
P
= t (1 + )(1 ut + z )
Pt 1 Pt 1
(8A.1)
Pt / Pt 1
:
Pt
P P +P
P P
= t t 1 t 1 = 1 + t t 1 = 1 + t
Pt 1
Pt 1
Pt 1
,
Pt 1 - ; Pt 1 / Pt 1 = 1
,
( t ( Pt Pt 1 ) Pt 1 ).
Pt e / Pt 1 ,
( te ( Pt e Pt 1 ) Pt 1 ) :
Pt e Pt e Pt 1 + Pt 1
P e Pt 1
=
= 1+ t
= 1 + te
Pt 1
Pt 1
Pt 1
Tavi 8
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
(8.1) Pt / Pt 1
Pt / Pt 1 , :
e
(1 + t ) = (1 + te )(1 + )(1 ut + z )
, t , e
, t , ,
ut , . , e
, 1 + t (1 + ) -:
(1 + t )
(1 + )(1 + )
e
t
= 1 ut + z
, ,
1 + t te ( -2
-3 -6 ). :
t = te + ( + z ) ut
, (8.2)- ;

(8.3) .
, t , te - , ut -. , , , , , z , , .
267
9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM
merikis SeerTebul StatebSi 1970-iani wlebis bolosTvis inflaciam weliwadSi 14 procents miaRwia. 1979 wlis oqtomberSi federalurma sarezervo sistemam inflaciis Semcireba gadawyvita da am mizniT masStaburi
monetaruli SezRudva wamoiwyo. 5 wlis Semdeg, aseve omis Semdgomi periodis
Rrma recesiis Semdeg, inflaciam erT weliwadSi 4 procentuli punqtiT daiwia.
im droidan igi 4 procentis farglebSi meryeobda.
ratom gadawyvita federalurma sarezervo sistemam inflaciis Semcireba? rogor
gaakeTa es? ratom iyo recesia? ufro zogadad, rogoria nominaluri fulis
zrdis gavlena inflaciasa da gamoSvebaze? dasmul kiTxvebze pasuxis gasacemad
me-7 TavSi molodinisadmi Cveni damokidebuleba Zalian martivi iyo. magram axla, rodesac visaubreT molodinze da me-8 TavSi gavecaniT fili psis mrudis damokidebulebas, dasmul kiTxvaze pasuxis gasacemad saWiro instrumentebi gvaqvs.
swored amas gavakeTebT mocemul TavSi:
9.1 nawili ganavrcobs me-7 TavSi warmodgenil models da gamoSvebas, umuSevrobasa da inflacias Soris sam - oukenis kanonis, fili psis mrudisa da erToblivi moTxovnis - damokidebulebas ganixilavs.
9.2 nawilSi ganxilulia fulis zrdis gavlena gamoSvebaze, umuSevrobasa da

inflaciaze rogorc, mokle-, ise saSualovadian periodebSi.
9.3 nawilSi Tavidanaa ganxiluli dezinflacia, aseve damokidebuleba umuSevrobasa da inflacias Soris da is, Tu rogor zemoqmedebs centraluri bankisadmi ndoba ekonomikaSi fulis nominaluri zrdis Semcirebaze.
Tavi 9
inflacia, aqtivoba
da nominaluri
fulis zrda
269
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
3
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1:47:35 PM
9.1
gamoSveba, umuSevroba da inflacia
-7 : .
-7 , . . :

, ;
,
, -8 .
,
. , -7 .
-, 9.2
,
, .
oukenis kanoni
, Y=N
L ( )
.
270
270
12
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 10
-6 , , .
, -
. , . , , ,
.
.
,
. , 1 1 .
, 1 1
. ut t ,
ut-1 , t-1 gyt , t-1
t . :
makroekonomika
9/27/2010 1:47:38 PM
M01_BL
47:38 PM
ut - ut-1 = -g yt
(9.1)
:
. , , 4 , 4
.
,
. . 9.1 1970
. , .
:
ut - ut-1 = -0,4(g yt - 3%)
(9.2)
(9.1) , (9.2) . , (9.1) :

, , 3 ,
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,
. , 1,7 1,7
. , , , , 1,3 , , 1,7%+1,3%=3%-
. ,

.

1960 3
: 3% (9.2) . , , .
(9.2) 0,4- (9.1) ,
1,0-. , (9.2)
1
0,4 , (9.1)
1%- . :
Tavi 9 inflacia, aqtivoba da nominaluri fulis zrda
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5

,
(Artur Okun) ,
.
gyt>3%,
ut<ut-1
gyt<3%, ut>ut-1
gyt=3%, ut=ut-1
, 1,3
2,3 .

,
?
-13 ,
2002-2004
-
.
271
9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM
nax. 9 -1

;
.
umuSevrobis donis cvlileba (procenti)

1970
ut ut 1 = 0, 4( g yt 3%)
3
2
gamoSvebis zrda (procenti)
272
272
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 12
10
1. , .
,
1
0,6 .
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, . ,
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, .
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9/27/2010 1:47:38 PM
M01_BL
47:38 PM
, .
,
,
,
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,
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,
.
g yt > g y ut < ut 1
g yt < g y ut > ut 1
filipsis mrudi
-8 ,
[(8.7) ], ,
:
t = te (ut un )
(9.4)
, .
, te t-1- .
:
t t 1 = (ut un )
(9.5)
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
273
9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM
CanarTi
oukenis kanoni qveynebis mixedviT

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0,4- , , ,
, 1

0,4 .
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,

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.
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1-
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erToblivi moTxovnis damokidebuleba

, , ,
. , , -7 .
-7 , , , -
274
274
MP 93:74:1 0102/72/9
12
10
makroekonomika
51 fdp.10C9/27/2010
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M01_BLA
M01_BL
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.
1980-
,

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,

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,
, .
oukenis kanonis koeficientebi qveynebisa da drois mixedviT
1960-dan 1980 wlamde
qveyana
1981-dan 2006 wlamde
aSS
0.39
0.42
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0.20
0.29
gaerTianebuli samefo
0.15
0.51
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0.02
0.11
CanarTi
,

.
( -8 )

.
, 1981
2006 . ,
[(7.3) ],
:
M
Yt = Y t , Gt , Tt
Pt
,
, -7 , .
.
, , ,
, , :
M
Yt = Y t
Pt
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 15
5
275
9/27/2010
9/27/2010 1:47:39
1:47:37PM
PM
, ,

Yt =
,

( -8 -2
). , Y= M/P
,
gmt > t gyt > 0

gmt < t gyt < 0
(9.6)
( ) .
, , , . ,
, ,
IS-LM :

;

, , .
(9.6) ,
. , , , ,
(
) . , :
, gyt , t
, gmt .
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gy=gm-.
Mt
Pt
g yt = g mt t
(9.7)
, .
,
. ,
, (
) . (
) , , .
9.2
fulis zrdis efeqtebi
, ,
, :

[(9.3) ]:
276
276
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 12
10
makroekonomika
9/27/2010 1:47:38 PM
M01_BL
47:38 PM
ut ut 1 = ( g gt g y )
, ,
[(9.5) ]:
t t 1 = (ut un )

[(9.7) ]:
g yt = g mt t
. 9.2 -. . ,
.
, .
, .
nax. 9 -2
nominaluri
fulis
zrda
gamoSvebis
zrda
erToblivi
moTxovna
oukenis
kanoni
, ,
growth
umuSevroba
inflacia
filipsis
mrudi
, ,
. ,
..
( ,
, )
(.. , ).
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
277
9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM
saSualovadiani periodi
:
gy = gy
,
, g mt -. , , ?
:
,
. ut = ut 1 - ,
g yt = g y .
g y - .
g m - g y -
,
:
g y = gm
:
= gm g y
= gm g y
u = un
(9.8)

.

, (9.8) :

.
:
() ,
. , 3 , 3
.
3 ,
( ) . ,
8 , 5 .
,
: t=t-1. , ut=un.
.
:
.
.
.
278
278
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 12
10
makroekonomika
9/27/2010 1:47:38 PM
M01_BL
47:38 PM
, -7 .
, : , - . ,
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M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
279
9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM
,

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3 .
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5,5 5,5
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, 3 .
cxrili 9-1
280
280
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 12
10
monetaruli SezRudvebis Sedegebi

weli 0
weli 1
weli 2
weli 3
3.0
0.5
5.5
3.0
realuri fulis zrda, %
(gm
gamoSvebis zrda, %
(gy )
3.0
0.5
5.5
3.0
umuSevrobis done, %
(u)
6.0
7.0
6.0
6.0
inflaciis tempi, %
( )
5.0
4.0
4.0
4.0
(nominaluri fulis zrda), %
(gm )
8.0
4.5
9.5
7.0
makroekonomika
9/27/2010 1:47:38 PM
M01_BL
47:38 PM
.
, 2,5
,
(2,5% 0,4-,
) . ,
6- 7 . ,
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: .

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9.3
dezinflacia
, , , 1979
: ;
;
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
281
9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM
:
,

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.
23- .
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,
.
,
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.
: ,
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pirveli cda
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t t 1 = (ut un )
,

:
(
) : .

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,
, 10
, 5 . 5 ,
(1,05)10%=10,5%,
5
,
10%+5%=15%?

.
,
,
,
10%+5%=15%.
282
282
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 12
10
, , , : ,
, ( ut un ) .
, .
:
,
, ,
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1
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6 , 8-
4 (8-6)=8 .
,
x . ,
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x=10. , , ,
, , =1; :
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9/27/2010 1:47:38 PM
M01_BL
47:38 PM
,
. (9.5) ,
10
. -10
10
.
,
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inflaciis Semcireba
(9.5) , , (1/)- .
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, 10- . 6-
,
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
(9.5) ,
1-

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1/.
1/
.
283
9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM
16 , . , - 0,4-
3 ,

ut ut 1 = ( g yt g y )
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, -22
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1931 , . , , ,
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, .

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,
.
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.
, .
molodini da sandooba: lukasis kritika

(Robert
Lukas) (Thomas Sargent) ( ). , , 284
284
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 12
10
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47:38 PM
, :
, , ,
.
.
, (9.5) ,
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1995 .
- .
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(. .,
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. , ,
, 14 , 4
, 4 , :
te = t 1 ,

t t 1 = (ut un )
.
,
t < t 1 , ,
ut > un .
t = te (ut un )
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M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
285
9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM

, , ,
. . ,

.
, ,
.
,
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,
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.
nominaluri sixiste da kontraqtebi

.
.

. 28-
.
(Stanley Fischer) (MTI) (John

Taylor) .
, ,
, , .
, ,
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,
, . ,

.
, ,
,
.
. ,
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286
286
makroekonomika
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 12
10
9/27/2010 1:47:38 PM
M01_BL
47:38 PM
. , , ,
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M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
287
9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM
CanarTi
aSS-s dezinflacia 1979-1985 wlebSi
288
288
12
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 10
1979 - 5,8
,

.
2,5
,
. ,
( ) , 13,3 .
:
,
. 1979
(Carter)

(Paul Volker) . ,
(Nixon) , ,
.
1979 ,
. ,
,
.
,

.
,

. , -

, ,
.
,
,

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,
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, 1979
11,4 , 1980
17,6 . ,
, . 1980
9
, , 8,6 . -
(roller-coaster
)
.
,
12 ,
1979 1984
.
,
1980
, ,

makroekonomika
9/27/2010 1:47:38 PM
M01_BL
47:38 PM
. 1980 , ,
- ,
,

.
,
.
,

, .
1981 wlis ianvari
20
1980 wlis aprili
16
14
12
10
8
1979 wlis
seqtemberi
inflaciis tempi
1980 wlis ivlisi

6
4
2
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1 1979 1984
1979 1980
1980
1981 , 1981 1982
.
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
CanarTi
inflaciis tempi, federaluri fondebis

ganakveTi (procenti)
18
289
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CanarTi
290
290
12
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 10
1980 , ,
.
3

, , . 1981
19-
.
1981
, .
,
1980 ,
cxrili 1
. 1980 ,
,
. 1981 12,3
, 1982
14,9
.
,

?
,

. ,
,
,
, 1980 .
inflacia da umuSevroba 1979 wlidan 1985 wlamde

1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
mTliani Sida produqtis zrda (%)
1979
2.5
0.5
1.8
2.2
3.9
6.2
3.2
umuSevrobis done (%)
5.8
7.1
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grZelvadiani
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vens Tvalsazriss imis Taobaze, Tu rogor moqmedebs ekonomika wlidan

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ryevebi mcirdeba. zrda, erToblivi gamoSvebis mdgradi zrda droSi, dominirebs. nax. 10.1 amerikis SeerTebul StatebSi 1890 wlidan mTliani Sida produqtis
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bevri qveyana axlac Raribia.
10.1 nawilSi ganxilulia gazomvis ZiriTadi problema: rogor gaizomeba

cxovrebis done.
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10.4 nawilSi mocemulia zrdis Teoria damwyebTaTvis da is monaxazi, romelic momdevno TavebSi iqneba ganxiluli.
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301
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Historical Statistics of the
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National Income and Product
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10. 2
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1950
. .
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1950 wlidan
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1950
2004
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310
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M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 12
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M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 12
10
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9/27/2010 1:47:38 PM
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-
317
9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM
gamoSveba da kapitali
erT muSakze

.
gamoSveba erT muSakze, Y/N
nax. 10 - 4
D
C
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,
,
, ;
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.
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. (10.2)
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K
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N
N
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,
. ,
.
?
318
318
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 12
10
, Y/N , K/N . , (10.3)

. . .
(10.3) .
10.4-. (Y/N) ,
(K/N) .
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47:38 PM
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, , AB ,
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M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
319
9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM
gamoSveba erT muSakze, Y/N
F(K/N, 1) /
B
F(K/N, 1)
A
kapitali erT muSakze,
320
320
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 12
10
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.

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321
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9/27/2010 1:47:40 PM
9/27/2010 1:47:38 PM
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M01_BL
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47:38 PM

.
. , 2 .
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M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 16
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
323
323
9/27/2010 1:47:40 PM
9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM
1970
?
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() () .

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1970 .

1970 ?
. () , . -
, Prentice Hall- :
damatebiT wasakiTxi
(Bred deLonge) (http://econ161.berkeley.edu/)

. , Berkeley Faculty Lunch Talk:
Themes of 20th Century Economic History , ,
.
(Angus Maddison), The World Economy. A MilleniumPerspective,
324
324
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 16
12
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 10
OECD, Paris, 2001. www.theworldeconomy.org

.
Productivity and American Leadership by William
Baumol, Sue Anne Batey Blackman, and Edward
Wolff (MIT Press, Cambridge, MA,1989) -3 , - 1880-
.
makroekonomika
9/27/2010 1:47:40 PM
9/27/2010 1:47:38 PM
amerikis SeerTebul StatebSi 1950 wlidan dazogvis norma, danazogebis wili mTlian Sida produqtSi, weliwadSi saSualod 17 procents
Seadgenda, SedarebisaTvis, igive maCvenebeli germaniaSi 24 procenti.
xolo iaponiaSi 30 procenti iyo. SeiZleba Tu ara am faqtiT avxsnaT,
Tu ratom iyo aSS-Si ukanaskneli 50 wlis ganmavlobaSi zrdis maCvenebeli ufro dabali, vidre ekonomikuri TanamSromlobisa da ganviTarebis organizaciis (OECD) umetes wevr saxelmwifoebSi? momavalSi aSS-Si zrdis maRali da
mdgradi tempebis miRwevisaTvis xom ar unda gaizardos dazogvis norma?
am kiTxvebze pasuxi me-10 Tavis bolos ZiriTadad ukve gaveci: pasuxi uaryofiTia. grZelvadiani periodis mniSvnelovani maxasiaTebeli - ekonomikis zrdis
tempi, rasac Cven kidev davubrundebiT, dazogvis normasTan dakavSirebuli ar
aris. ar dgindeba, rom aSS-zrdis dabali tempebi ukanaskneli 50 wlis ganmavlobaSi, pirvel rigSi, dazogvis dabali normiT iyo gamowveuli. ar unda velodoT,
rom dazogvis normis zrda aSS-Si zrdis maRal, stabilur tempebs gamoiwvevs.
es daskvna sulac ar niSnavs, rom dazogvis dabali normiT SeSfoTebulebi
ar unda viyoT. im SemTxvevaSic ki, roca danazogi mudmivad ar zemoqmedebs zrdaze, is zemoqmedebs gamoSvebis moculobaze da cxovrebis doneze. dazogvis normis
zrda aSS-Si garkveuli drois ganmavlobaSi zrdis maRal tempebsa da cxovrebis
donis amaRlebas gamoiwvevs.
es Tavi gamoSvebis moculobaze da zrdis tempze dazogvis normis zegavlenas
eZRvneba:
11.1 da 11.2 nawilebSi gamoSvebasa da kapitalis dagrovebas Soris kavSiri da

dazogvis normis efeqtebia warmodgenili.
11.3 nawili Seicavs monacemebs, romlebic ganxiluli maCveneblebis arsis

ukeT gagebaSi gvexmareba.
11.4 nawilSi fizikur kapitalTan erTad adamianuri kapitalic ganixileba.
Tavi 11
dazogva, kapitalis
dagroveba da
gamoSveba
325
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
3
9/27/2010 1:47:37
1:47:35 PM
11 . 1
gamoSvebasa da kapitals Soris

damokidebuleba
:
.

, , ,
.
, . 11-1- , . , ,
: , , . .
kapitalis zegavlena gamoSvebaze
, ,
F

: F ( K , N ) = K N ,
Y= K N.
N-
-
:
Y N=
N N
,
N N =
N =1

:
Y N=
N =
K N
f ,

,
:
f (K N ) =
-, , 10.3 ,
, ,

:
Y
K
= F ,1
N
N
, Y/N, , K/N,
. , ,
, .
, :
Y
K
= f
N
N
f F :
K
K
f = F ,1
N

N
K N
326
326
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 12
10
makroekonomika
9/27/2010 1:47:38 PM
M01_BL
47:38 PM
kapitalis
maragi
gamoSveba/Semosavali
kapitalis
maragis
cvlileba
dazogva/investicia
nax. 11 -1
,
/
, , . , , N, .
, -2 , -6 ,
,
, :
. ,
. , , . , ,
100 , 5 ,
95 [100 (1-0,05)]. ,
, .
2003
(2000
) 34 875 ,
,
67 865 , (
?).
, ,
, , .
, , ,
,
.
N- ,
:
N , ,
, . , . -12 , ,
-13 , , ,
Tavi 11 dazogva, kapitalis dagroveba da gamoSveba
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
327
9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM
, - , (, ,
) , .
.
. ,
f (, , F)
. , (
)
. -12
, ,
,
. ,
.
,
, ,
:
:
.
= f Kt
N
(11.1)
, , N -, ,
, .
: .
gamoSvebis zegavlena kapitalis dagrovebaze

:
-19 ,

. ,
,

.
.
328
328
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 12
10
1.
2.
gamoSveba da investiciebi

:
, ,
. -3 [(3.10) ],
makroekonomika
9/27/2010 1:47:38 PM
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47:38 PM
, , I, (, S, , T-G, ) .
I=S+(T-G)
,
, , T-G, (
, , ). ,
:
, ,
,
.
, .
I=S
.
, ,
S=sY
s . 0- 1- .
. ,
, , , , , , ,
, .
,
:

( ) : ,
, -3
, ,
. ,

. .
-16
.
It=sYt
: , , .
investiciebi da kapitalis dagroveba

,
( - ) (
-
) .
, , , t t , t+1 t+1 .. ,
, , ,
, Kt, t ,
Kt+1, t+1 ..
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
: ,
(,
); , (

). ,
. .
329
9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM
, ( )
: ,
, ,
. , (1-) .
:
Kt+1=(1- )Kt+It
t+1 - Kt+1 t , t+1 , (1- )Kt, , t ( t , It-, ).
.
N- ( ) . :
K t +1
K
Y
= (1 ) t + s t
N
N
N
: t+1 t
, t
, t , , ,
t .
(1 ) K t / N : K t / N K t / N .
, K t / N . :
K t +1 K t
Y
K
= s t t
N
N
N
N
(11.2)
:

.
: (
) (
) ( ) .
330
330
makroekonomika
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 12
10
9/27/2010 1:47:38 PM
M01_BL
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11 . 2
dazogvis alternatiuli normebis

Sedegebi
:
(11.1) , .
(11.2) ,
.
,
.
kapitalisa da gamoSvebis dinamika

(11.2) , Yt/N, (11.1) , . :
K t +1 K t
M
N
K
sf t
N
t
= t- t+1
Kt
N
(11.3)
, .
:
,
,
. , , , , .
, , .
K t N f (K t N ) s
sf (K t N )
Kt N Kt N
,
: .
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
331
9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM
, , :
.
cveTa erT dasaqmebulze
gamoSveba erT dasaqmebulze, Y/N
nax. 11 - 2

,
;
, .
Kt /N
gamoSveba erT
dasaqmebulze
f (Kt /N )
Y */ N
investicia erT
dasaqmebulze
s f (Kt /N )
C
D
A
(K0 / N)
K */ N
kapitali erT dasaqmebulze, K/ N
(11.1) :
= f Kt
N
N
t
(11.3) (11.1)
. , . 11.2-
,
, .
. 11.2- , f(Kt/N),
. . 10.5- :
, , ,
,
.
, (11.3) :
332
332
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 12
10
sf (K t N ), ,
, , , s- (
) . , . 11.2-
K0/N- . -
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AB , AC , , , AB
s . , , ,
, . ,
, , ,
.
Kt/N, ,
.

. , K0/N- , AD .

. K0/N
;
, CD=AC-AD , , . , ,
, ,
,
. . 11.2- , K*/N , . . K*/N
, ,
. , , . K*/N

. , .
. , , , . 11.2- K0/N .
, .
, ,
. , ,
K*/N ,
. K*/
N ,
Y*/N K*/N
.
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
, (
,
, s,, ?
?).

,
.
,

.
333
9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM

,

? , ?

?
, ,
. , ,
, , , ,
, K*/N-
.
, .

,
( ).
, K*/N- , .
, : , , .
,
, . K*/N
. .
kapitalis mdgradi mdgomareoba da gamoSveba

. ,
, . , (11.3)
( ,
), , K*/N -,
:
K
K
sf
=
N
N
K*/N
.
334
334
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 12
10
(11.4)
( ) , ( ) .
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, Y*/N , ,
K*/N- - :
K
Y
= f
N
N
(11.5)
, ,
,
, .
dazogvis norma da gamoSveba

, :
? :
1. , .
: , , ,
.
, .
, -12
, , . , . .
, ,
, . ,
. ,
, , ,
, , . ,
.
, ,
.
2. , . , , ,
.
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
, 1950-1990
,

. (Paul Krugman) ,

,

.
335
9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM
CanarTi
kapitalis dagroveba da zrda safrangeTSi

meore msoflio omis Semdeg
1945 ,
, - ,

. 550
, 42 .
:

30 .
1 .
, ,
, ,
:
. . 11.2- , ,
K*/N- ,
,
, K*/N-,
Y*/N-
.
,
,
.
336
336
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 12
10
.
, . ,
, ,
,
. , .
. 1946 1950

, 9,6
, 5
60- .
?
. ,
. 11.3. ,
,
, , s0 s1 , s1>s0. .11.3-
f(Kt /N) / s0 f(Kt /N) s1 f(Kt /N) ,
. , s0,
K0 /N
Y0 /N . , s1,
, K1 /N Y1 /N, .
makroekonomika
9/27/2010 1:47:38 PM
M01_BL
47:38 PM
cxrili 1
rkinigza
gzebi
.
.
: Gilles Saint-Paul, Economic Reconstruction in France, 1945-1958 , :
Rudiger Dornbush, Willem Nolling, and Richard Layard, eds, Postwar Economic Reconstruction and Lessons for the East Today, MIT
Press, Cambridge, MA, 1993.
meore msoflio omis dasrulebisaTvis safrangeTis

kapitalis maragis ganadgurebuli proporciebi
liandagi
sadgurebi
lokomotivebi
aparatura da
mowyobilobebi
msubuqi
avtomanqanebi
satvirTo
avtomanqanebi
6%
mdinareebi
38%
21%
60%
31%
40%
Senobebi
sawylosno
gzebi
sanavigacio
arxebis rabis
WiSkari
barJebi
(raodenoba)
sacxovrebeli
saxlebi
sawarmoo
daniSnulebis
nagebobebi
86%
11%
80%
1 229 000
CanarTi
. 1945

. 1930-
( ) ,
. ,

-
246 000
wyaro: ixileT am CanarTis wyaro.
3. , .
, . ,
. ,
. , , ,
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
337
9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM
. , , .
.11.3 .
s0 . ,
K0 /N-, Y0 /N- . , s0- s1-
. , .
/ ,
, s0 f(Kt /N)- s1 f(Kt /N)- .

,
.
cveTa erT dasaqmebulze
nax. 11 - 3
Kt /N
gamoSveba erT dasaqmebulze
f (Kt /N )
Y1/ N
investicia erT dasaqmebulze
s1f (Kt /N )
Y0 / N
investicia erT dasaqmebulze
s0f (Kt /N )
K0 / N
K1/ N
kapitali erT dasaqmebulze, K/ N
nax. 11 - 4

,
, , .
(teqnologiuri progresis gareSe)

rodesac dazogvis norma
s1 > s0
Y1/ N
Y0/ N
rodesac dazogvis normaa s0

t
dro
338
338
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 12
10
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9/27/2010 1:47:38 PM
M01_BL
47:38 PM
K0 /N , ,
. ,
, , .
K1 /N
, . K1 /N ,
Y1 /N-.
. 11.4-. Y0 /N-. , , , t ,
,
, Y1 /N, .
.
,
, ,
. , -12 ,
, . , .
, ,
.
. .

, .
.11.5-, .11.4-
. : , , ,
, .
, s0- , AA-
. t s1-
, , ,
, BB -, . BB
, ( BB AA
).
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
-2 .
339
9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM
dazogvis norma da moxmareba
,

.
, :

;
. ,
: ,
, , , , , ; ,
. ,
, , .
nax. 11 - 5
rodesac dazogvis
B
normaa
s > s1
(logariTmuli Skala)

,
, ,
.
(teqnologiuri progresis pirobebSi)
rodesac dazogvis normaa s0
A
t
dro
,
,
-3 ,

.
,
,
,

.
,
, -17 26- , -
.
? .
, ,
.
, ( , , , , . .
, . .):
, , .
.

? . , ,
, . , .
340
340
makroekonomika
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10
9/27/2010 1:47:38 PM
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11.3- ,
. . , ,
:
, ( ), , . , , .

.
, : .
. ,
, . , : , , .
.
, ,

. , . ,
, , , .
,
,
. , . ,
, , , .
.
.11.6-,
( )
( ) . , ,
, , , . s
sG- (G - ) ,
.
s sG- , Tavi 11 dazogva, kapitalis dagroveba da gamoSveba
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
341
9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM

, .
moxmareba erT dasaqmebulze, C/N
nax. 11 - 6
moxmarebis mdgradi donis maqsimumi

erT dasaqmebulze
sG
dazogvis norma, s
, ,
,
. s=1,
. , .
, , ,
. ? ? ,
(OECD) , , . .
, :

, .
? ? ,
: ,
, , . , :
. , , ,
, ,
.
. , .
342
342
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 12
10
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11 . 3
mniSvnelobebis arsis miReba
?
? ? ,
, .
,
(11.6)
Y= K N

( , - (Cobb-Douglas)
,
).
N- ( ). :
Y
=
N
K N
=
N
K
=
N
,
,
.
K
N
. , f
:
K
f t
N
Kt
N
(11.3) f (K t N ) -
:
N N=
=1
N =
N - .
K t N . -
K t +1 K t
Kt
K
=s
t
N
N
N
N
(11.7)
.
, .
dazogvis normis zegavlena mdgradi mdgomareobis

gamoSvebaze

?
(11.7) .
,
. ,
K
K
=
N
N
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
343
9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM
CanarTi
socialuri uzrunvelyofa, dazogva da

kapitalis dagroveba SeerTebul StatebSi

- 1935 .

.
. , , 4 .
50 .
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,
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344
12
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 10
,
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()
. (Fully funded system)
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9/27/2010 1:47:38 PM
M01_BL
47:38 PM
, , ,
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M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
CanarTi
345
9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM
CanarTi
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= s2
s
N
N
K/N- :
K s
=
N
346
346
12
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 10
(11.8)
makroekonomika
9/27/2010 1:47:38 PM
M01_BL
47:38 PM
.
(11.6) (11.8) ,
:
Y
=
N
K
s
s
= =
N
(11.9)
.
[(11.8) ] [(11.9) ]
. . , , , 10 . (11.8) (11.9) ,
. ,
10 , 20 .
(11.8) , , , (11.9) , .
, . .
dazogvis normis zrdis dinamikuri efeqtebi

,
. , , ?
, ?
(11.7)
t=0 , t=1 ..
, , 10 , 0 , 20
. 0
(, , , ). , (11.8) , ,
0,1 :
K0
2
= (0,1 0,1) = 12 = 1
N
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
347
9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM
t=1 (11.7) :
10-
20
.

,
. ,
.
(a) erT dasaqmebulze gamoSvebis zrdis efeqti
2.00
1.75
1.50
1.25
1.00
0
10
20
wlebi
30
40
50
40
50
(b) gamoSvebis zrids efeqti
5
erT dasaqmebulze gamoSvebis
zrdis tempi (rocenti)
nax. 11 - 7
gamoSveba erT dasaqmebulze, Y/ N
K0
K
K1 K 0
=s
0
N N
N
N
4
3
2
1
0
0
10
20
30
wlebi
0,1 0,2 :
( )
K1
1 = (0, 2 ) 1 (0,1)1
N
K1
= 1,1
N
, K2/N- ..
, 0 , 1 .. (11.6) 0 , 1 .. 348
348
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 12
10
makroekonomika
9/27/2010 1:47:38 PM
M01_BL
47:38 PM
.11.7- . . 11.7 ()
. Y/N , 1-, . . 11.7 ()
,
. . 11.7 ()- ,
.
, .
. 11.7 , , , . 10

40 , 20 63 . ,

. 10
3,1 , 10 1,5
. , ,
.
, : 1950
, , (OECD)
, / ? ,
50 . , 50
, . 11.7- ( ,
, , ). , : -
. 50 - .

. ,
, ,
.
aSS-Si dazogvis norma da oqros wesi

, ? ,
, , . , :
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
349
9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM
C Y
K
=
N N
N
(11.8)
(11.9) :
s (1 s )
C s
s
= =
N
, :
-

.
, (11.8) (11.9)
( 10 )

, 11.1-.
,
s=0,5. , , 50 .
, 0- 0,5- . , - 17 . ,
, , ,

.
cxrili 11-1
dazogvis
norma, s
350
350
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 12
10
dazogvis norma da erT dasaqmebulze kapitalis, gamoSvebisa da

moxmarebis mdgradi normebi
kapitali erT
dasaqmebulze, (K / N)
gamoSveba erT
dasaqmebulze, (Y / N)
moxmareba erT
dasaqmebulze, (C/ N)
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
1.0
1.0
0.9
0.2
4.0
2.0
1.6
0.3
9.0
3.0
2.1
0.4
16.0
4.0
2.4
0.5
25.0
5.0
2.5
0.6
36.0
6.0
2.4
1.0
100.0
10.0
0.0
makroekonomika
9/27/2010 1:47:38 PM
M01_BL
47:38 PM
11 . 4
fizikuri Tu adamianuri kapitali
, , .. , . , ,
, , .
, .
, (OECD)
, 30 .

- 95 . .
, , 16 .
.
100 , 90
38 . , 400 - , , , 95, 32 4 .
, ?
? .
, ,
,

.
sawarmoo funqciis gafarToeba

, (11.1) :
Y
K H
= f ,
N
N N
(+,
(11.10)
+)

, K/N, , H/N. , , K/N ,
. ,
H/N-, . Tavi 11 dazogva, kapitalis dagroveba da gamoSveba
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
351
9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM
,
, H,,
: -4

.

.
.
-13
,
,
.
,
, ,

.
.
? :
,
,
.
,

?
?
352
352
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 12
10

.
.
,
,
. : H/N-,
, . , . , - . ,
: , . . , ,
, ,
-, , , . ,
, , ,
. , .
, H?
, , K. K-
.
2 000 , , , 1 000 . , H- .
, , H-
. ,
100 . , . , .
H, [(50x1)+(50x2)]=150. , H/N, 150/100=1,5.
adamianuri kapitali, fizikuri kapitali da gamoSveba

?
:
. . makroekonomika
9/27/2010 1:47:38 PM
M01_BL
47:38 PM

.

, , ,
, .

? , . -
6,5 . , ,
( 16 )
. .
:
, ,
, .
, 6,5 .
, , ,
.
(), . 6,5 .
. ,
, , , .
, . 6,5
.
. , -, . - , . ,
- , , .

,
?
, . ,

. , ,
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
353
9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM
. , , / , .
endogenuri zrda
, -9 ,
,

.
, , ,
. , ,
, . ,

.
.
(Robert Lukas) (Paul Romer) ,
, .

. ,

. : , ,
, , ?

?
, , .
, , , .
, ,
, . :
354
354
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 12
10
.
, . / ,
,
, , ,
.
makroekonomika
9/27/2010 1:47:38 PM
M01
M01_BL
47:38 PM
. ?
?
.
Sejameba
(
, ): , ; , , .
, ( ,
-12 )
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, ,
.
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. (
)

, , .

.

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,

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.
:
, . /
,
,
.
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 16
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
355
355
9/27/2010 1:47:40 PM
9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM
sakvanZo terminebi
, 325
, 334
, 341
, 344
, 344
, 345
, 351
, 354

1. ,
, .
:
. .
.
.
. , .
. ,
;
.
.
, .
. -

.
, - .
.
, , . , .
2. :
(Solow) ,
356
356
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 16
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 12
10

, - .
. ?
3. -3 ,
(.. ).
-7
.
.
,
? ?
4. , :
.
;
.
;
5. ,
makroekonomika
9/27/2010 1:47:40 PM
9/27/2010 1:47:38 PM
M01
M01_BL
0 PM
47:38 PM

.

?
6. , :
Y = 0,5 K N
.

, s, .
. ,
s, .
. , =0,05.
, s=0; s=0,1; s=0,2;
..., s=1.
.

, ,
( ,

).
. ,
s ,

? , s , -
? ,
?
7. - .
. , :
Y = K N 1
, =1/3.
. ? .
. ?
. ?
. .
. s

.
. .
.
,
s=0,32, =0,08.
. , =0,08,
s=0,16 .

?
8. -7 : ,
Y = K 1 3 N 2 3 , s,
, , 0,1- .
. ?
. ?
, -
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 16
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
357
357
9/27/2010 1:47:40 PM
9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM
t
0,1- 0,2-.
. ?
.

.
9. .
, Y = K N , (11.8)
.
. ,
(11.8) .
. , ,
s 15 , 7,5 .
?

?
. ,
5 . ,
, , 20 .

?

?
() ?

10. -
-9 , - . ,
,
.
. (www.gpoaccess.gov/eop/). B-32

, B-1 . -
? -9
: ?

?
.
B-79 ()
- . -9
, ,
, . : ? ?
, Prentice Hall- :
358
358
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 16
12
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 10
makroekonomika
9/27/2010 1:47:40 PM
9/27/2010 1:47:38 PM
M01_BL
0 PM
47:38 PM
danarTi:
kob-duglasis sawarmoo funqcia da mdgradi mdgomareoba
1928 (Charles
Cobb) (Paul Douglas), - ,
, 1899-1922 ,

:
Y = K N 1
(11A.1)
. .
(11A.1) ,
-
, - ,

- (,
, :

).

,
(11A.1) (,
,
, ).
,
. , :
,
, ,
,
(11A.1) . (11A.1)
N-:
Y N = K N 1 N
:
N 1 N = N 1 N 1 = N
, :
Y N = K N = ( K N )
, (Y/N),
.
s
. , , :
s(K*/N)
:
(K*/N)
K* ,
:
s(K*/N)= (K*/N)
, , K*/N,
(K*/N) :
s= (K*/N)1-
( - - ) :
(K*/N)1-= s/
, 1/(1 ) :
(K*/N)=( s/ )1/(1 )
.
,

:
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
359
9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM
(Y*/N)=(K/N)=(s/) /(1-)
, .
(11A.1)
,
=0,5 (0,5 , ). =0,5,
:
, 2 ,
1,4- (,
40 ).
Y*/N= s/
. , . .
, , , K-
,
, . , =1/3, /
(1-)=(1/3)/(1 (1/3))=(1/3)/(2/3)=1/2
:
Y * N = (s ) = s
12
, ,
. -
360
360
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 12
10
,
, - - , ,
. 11.4 ,

, - - , , . , 11.3

,

, ( - ).
- , 343
makroekonomika
9/27/2010 1:47:38 PM
eTerTmete TavSi Cven gamovitaneT daskvna imis Taobaze, rom kapitalis dagrovebas ar SeuZlia TavisTavad ganapirobos zrda: mdgradi zrda teqnologiur progress moiTxovs. am TavSi teqnologiuri
progresis mniSvnelobaa ganxiluli.
12.1 nawilSi ganixileba teqnologiuri progresisa da kapitalis dagrovebis mniSvneloba zrdisaTvis. aq naCvenebia, rom mdgrad mdgomareobaSi erT adamianze gamoSvebis zrdis tempi teqnologiuri progresis
zrdis tempis tolia. Tumca, es ar niSnavs imas, rom dazogvis normas
ara aqvs mniSvneloba. dazogvis norma moqmedebs erT adamianze gamoSvebis moculobaze, magram ara zrdis tempze.
12.2 nawilSi moyvanilia teqnologiuri progresis determinantebi, ZiriTadad ki yuradReba gamaxvilebulia kvlevebisa da SemuSavebis mniSvnelobaze.
12.3 nawili ubrundeba me-10 TavSi warmodgenil zrdis maCveneblebs da

ganixilavs maT am da wina TavebSi mocemuli codnis safuZvelze.
Tavi 12
teqnologiuri
progresi da zrda
361
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
3
9/27/2010 1:47:37
1:47:35 PM
12 . 1 teqnologiuri progresi da zrdis

tempi
, , ? , -11
. ,
, ,
, .
teqnologiuri progresi da sawarmoo funqcia

:

1950 2
200- 2005 45 000-
. , (Robin Williams) (
)
(Moscow on the
Hudson)
-2
,
,

,

.
362
362
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 12
10
. ,
, , , .
. .
.
CD- , .
.
,
.
() , . , ,
, ,
: . .
, , , .. ,
, ,
,
. ,
, . -
makroekonomika
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M01_BL
47:38 PM
A- , :
Y = F ( K , N , A)
( +, +, + )
,
, K, , N, , A.
, .
, () , :
Y = F ( K , AN )
.
.
(12.1)
, .
, . (12.1) ,
:
. A- , N-, .
. ,
AN .
, A, , , .
, , AN, .
(12.1)?
.
, : , : -
Tavi 12 teqnologiuri progresi da zrda
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
AN-
.
-6 :

.
363
9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM
, K, , N,
:
2Y = F (2 K , 2 AN )
, x :
xY = F ( xK , xAN )
,
, N-.
,

, AN-,
, N-, , A-, .
F
:
Y = F ( K , AN ) =
K AN
=
AN
K
AN
364
364
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 12
10
, f , f(K/AN)F(K/AN,1), :
AN
, f
:
f ( K / AN ) =
Y
K
= F
,1
AN
AN
AN
Y
=
AN
(
) . , , . ,
, , , .
-11 ,
. ,
.
.
: ,

.
xY = F ( xK , xAN )
x=1/AN . :
Y
K
= f
AN
AN
(12.2)
: ( )
(
).
.12.1-.
, .11.2- , . , K/N- Y/N-
, . K/AN- Y/AN-
.
makroekonomika
9/27/2010 1:47:38 PM
M01_BL
47:38 PM
kapitalisa da gamoSvebis urTierTqmedeba

,
. -11
. , . .
-11 .11.2- . , :
.
.
( ) .
,
, -11
, , .
, -11
,

. ,
..
nax. 12 - 1
gamoSveba erT efeqtian

dasaqmebulze, Y/AN
f(K/AN)
gamoSveba da kapitali
erT efeqtian muSakze
,

.
kapitali erT efeqtian dasaqmebulze, K/AN
, ,
. ,
,
,
,
.
. 12.2- .
, , ,
.
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
365
9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM
. 12.1- . . 12.2-, ,
.
nax. 12 - 2
gamoSveba erT efeqtian muSakze, Y/AN
savaldebulo investiciebi
erT efeqtian muSakze kapitalis da erT

efeqtian muSakze gamoSvebis dinamika
gN )K/AN
gamoSveba
f(K/AN)
(ANY )*
investicia
sf (K/AN)
B
C
D
A
(K/AN )0
gA
(K/AN )*
-11 , ,
, :
I = S = sY
, AN-.
I
Y
=s
AN
AN
Y/AN (12.2) -. :
I
K
= sf
AN
AN
. 12.2-.
, ,
, s-, .
366
366
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 12
10
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9/27/2010 1:47:38 PM
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, ,
, .
-11 . : ,
(A
), AN . , K/AN , , K, , AN, .
, .
- . gA, gN. , , gN-. , ,
, AN-, (gA+gN)- .
, 1%,
2%, 3%.
, :
-11 ,
gA=0 gN=0.
,
, gA>0.
,
, ,
gN>0.
, ,
gA>0
gN>0.

. -2
-7 .
I = K + (g A + gN )K
,
I = ( + g A + g N ) K
(12.3)
K . 10
,
10 . (gA+gN)K ,
,
. , , 3 , 3
, .
K (gA+gN)K : 10 ,
3 ,
13 .
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
367
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(12.3)
, , . :
I
K
= ( + g A + g N )
AN
AN
, , .12.2-,
. (+gA+gN) .
gamoSvebisa da kapitalis dinamika

.
, .12.2- (K/AN)0 .
AB , AC . , (K/AN)0
, AD . ,
(K/AN)0 , K/AN .
, , (K/AN)0, . ,

, . . 12.2-
(K/AN)*-.
. , ,
, , (K/AN)*-
(Y/AN)*- .
, Y
AN
( , ).
368
368
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 12
10
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M01_BL
47:38 PM
(gA+gN)-, (gA+gN) .
: , (gA+gN) .
,

. , ,
:
Y/AN , Y
,
AN.
(gA+gN) .

(gN) (gA)
. , .
, -11 , .
: , .
, , .
.
,
, .
: (gA+gN). , ,
(gA+gN)- .
, ,
.
. ,
(gA+gN)- .
cxrili 12-1 dabalansebuli zrdis maxasiaTeblebi
Rate of growth of:

1
kapitali erT efeqtian muSakze
gamoSveba erT efeqtian muSakze
kapitali erT muSakze
gA
gamoSveba erT muSakze
gA
Sroma
gN
kapitali
gA
gN
gamoSveba
gA
gN
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
369
9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM
(, ,
)

.
Y/N-
Y- N-
( , -2
, -8 ).
, Y/N-
: (gY -
gN)=(gA+gN)-gN=gA.
.
, , , (
) . (gA+gN) , gN ,
gA . ,
, .
, , (gA+gN)-, ,
: , ,
. . 12.1 .
(:
):
; . 12.2-.
, gA .
, , :
- gN-, ;

, (gA+gN), .
dazogvis normis efeqtebi

. . ,
.
. 12.3-, s0-
s1- .
s0 f(K/AN)- s1 f(K/AN)- .
(K/AN)0- (K/AN)1- , , , (Y/AN)0- (Y/AN)1- .
, , 370
370
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 12
10
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9/27/2010 1:47:38 PM
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Y/AN
gamoSveba erT efeqtian muSakze,
nax. 12 - 3
f (K/AN )
( )
Y
AN
(ANY )
gA
gN)K/AN
s1f(K/AN )
s0f(K/AN )
(K/AN)0
: I

(K/AN)1
kapitali erT muSakze, K/AN
gamoSveba, Y (logariTmuli Skala)
. . 12.4 . .
AA ;
(gA+gN) : AA- (gA+gN)- . t , . ,
, . ,
(gA+gN) .
,
BB , AA-
, (gA+gN)- .
, : , , . . ,
. , , -
. 12.4 . 11.5- ,
, .
-2 .
, ,

, .
.
nax. 12 - 4
gamoSveba, romelic s1
> s0 -is Seesabameba

B
daxriloba (gA
gN)

: II
,

,
.
gamoSveba, romelic s0 -is Seesabameba
t
dro
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
371
9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM
.
.
, , .

. , . ,
.
12 . 2 teqnologiuri progresis
determinantebi
,
. :
? .
: () , -
.. ,
,
. , ,
,
(Rresearch & Development) , .
-10 (, , ) 2- 3 . -
1 - 75
. - 20
60 .
, -
-: .
,
( ,
,
). , . , -
372
372
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informaciuli teqnologiebi, axali

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1980
1984
1988
1992
1996
2000
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muris kanoni: erT mikrosqemaze tranzistorTa raodenoba 1970 wlidan 2000 wlamde
wyaro: Dale Jorgenson, post.economics.harvard.edu/faculty/jorgenson/
papers/aea5.ppt .
374
374
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91, 1, 2001, 1-32.
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.

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: Zvi Griliches, Hybrid Corn: An Exploration in the Economics of Technological

Change, Econometrica, 25,
4, 1957.
100
viskonsini
procenti
80
aiova
60
kentuki
texasi
alabama
40
20
10
0
1932 1934 1936 1938 1940 1942 1944 1946 1948 1950 1952 1954 1956
nax. 1
marcvleuli kulturebiT daTesil mTel farTobSi hibriduli simindis naTesi

farTobis procentuli wili aSS-is Statebis mixedviT 1932-1956 wlebSi.
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12 . 3 kidev erTxel zrdis faqtebis Sesaxeb

-10 , , -11 .
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wliuri tempi oTx mdidar qveyanaSi 1950 wlidan
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damatebiT wasakiTxi
,
: Charles Jones, Introduction to Economic Growth, 2nd ed., Norton, New York, 2002.
Joness Web page, emlab.berkeley.edu/users/chad/), .
, .:
Economist survey on Patents and Technology, 20, 2005.
,
:
: Stern Review on the Economics

of Climate Change, 2006. : www.
hmtreasury.gov.uk/
Indifendent_reviews/stern_review_economics_climate_change/stern_review_report.
cfm ( .
).
: Economist
survey on The Global Environment; The
Great Race, 4, 2002.
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 16
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
389
389
9/27/2010 1:47:40 PM
9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM
danarTi:
teqnologiuri progresis Sefasebis gansazRvra
1957 . ,
,
: .
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30000 ,
, 30000
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,
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.
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.
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W/P-. , - ,

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W
N
P
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=
Y
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, .
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Y/Y gY -
. , N/N
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:
390
390
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 12
10
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0,7- ,
,
, 1,4
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, , (1 )
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,
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, ,

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, 390
Robert Solow, Technical Change and the Aggregate Production Fumction , Review of Economics and
Statistics, 1956, 312-320.
:
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
391
9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM
12 Tavis didi nawili teqnologiuri progresis Rirsebebs mieZRvna.

saubari gvqonda imasTan dakavSirebiT, aris Tu ara grZelvadian
periodSi teqnologiuri progresi cxovrebis donis zrdis gasaRebi. xSirad popularul diskusiebSi teqnologiur miRwevebs umuSevrobisa da Semosavlis uTanabrobis zrdis mizezad Tvlian. am sakiTxs mimdinare TavSi
ganvixilavT. mas sam nawilad davyofT:
me-
13.1 nawilSi ganvixilavT, Sromis mwarmoeblurobis zrdis Sesabamisad, rogor

icvleba moklevadian periodSi gamoSveba da umuSevroba. im SemTxvevaSic ki, roca grZelvadian periodSi teqnologiuri progresisadmi adaptacia mxolod gamoSvebis da ara umuSevrobis zrdis meSveobiT xdeba, mainc Cndeba SekiTxva: ramdeni xani dasWirdeba am adaptacias? pasuxi araerTmniSvnelovania: grZelvadian
periodSi Sromis mwarmoeblurobis zrda zogjer amcirebs umuSevrobas, zogjer
ki zrdis mas.
13.2 nawilSi ganixileba, Sromis mwarmoeblurobis zrdis Sesabamisad, saSualovadian periodSi rogor icvleba gamoSveba da umuSevroba. naCvenebia, rom arc
Teoriuli da arc faqtobrivi monacemebi ar adasturebs SiSs imis Taobaze, rom
swrafi teqnologiuri progresi ufro met umuSevrobas ganapirobebs. nebismier
SemTxvevaSi, sxvagvari efeqti gvaqvs: saSualovadian periodSi mwarmoeblurobis
zrdasTan, savaraudod, dabali umuSevroba unda iyos dakavSirebuli.
13.3 nawilSi yuradRebis koncentrireba teqnologiuri progresis Sedegebis ganawilebaze xdeba. teqnologiuri progresis paralelurad, samuSao adgilis gaCenis da profesiebis gaqrobis rTuli procesi iwyeba. maTTvis, vinc samuSao
adgils kargavs, an maTTvis, vis profesiazec moTxovna aRar aris, teqnologiuri
progresi namdvili ubedurebaa da ara bedniereba: isini, rogorc momxmareblebi,
sargebels naxuloben axali da ufro iafi saqonlisgan, magram, rogorc muSakebs, maT moeliT xangrZlivi umuSevroba, xolo axali samuSaos SemoTavazebis
SemTxvevaSi ufro dabal xelfasebs unda dasTanxmdnen. 13.3 nawilSi ganixileba
yvela es Sedegi da maTi damadasturebeli faqtebi.
me-12 TavSi aRvniSneT, rom teqnologiurad CamorCenili qveynebisaTvis teqnologiuri progresi imitacia ufroa, vidre inovacia. amis gamo, maT igi advili eCvenebaT,
iseTi qveynebis gamocdileba ki, rogoric CineTia, aZlierebs maT aseT Sexedulebas.
magram, Tu es marTlac aseTi advilia, ratom ver axerxebs bevri sxva qveyana, miaRwi-
Tavi 13
mokle-, saSualo- da
grZelvadiani periodebi
393
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3
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1:47:35 PM
os uwyvet teqnologiur progressa da zrdas? es is meore sakiTxia, romelsac

am TavSi SevexebiT.
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maSin, roca zogierTi sxva qveyana amas moklebulia; ganvixilavT institutebis rols zrdis mxardaWeraSi, dawyebuli sakuTrebis uflebidan da
mTavrobis efeqtianobiT damTavrebuli.
13. 1
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10
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10
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nax. 13 - 2
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M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
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397
9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM
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nax. 13 - 3
gamoSvebis
zrda
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
21
22
mwarmoeblurobis
zrda
23
1960 1963 1966 1969 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005
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398
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, , , . , ,
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(Robert
McTeer), The Churn: The
Paradox of Progress, Federal
Reserve Bank of Dallass,
Dallas 1993.
teqnologiuri progresi, Carningi1

da ganawilebis efeqti
. (Josef Schumpeter), , 1930- ,

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10
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13.1 , ,
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1997
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2000
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2003
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, , . ,
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M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
409
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xelfasis uTanabrobis zrda

-6 .
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410
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 12
10
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9/27/2010 1:47:38 PM
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nax. 13 - 7
1.3
samecniero xarisxi
1.2
kolejis xarisxi
1.1
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1.0
sruli saSualo ganaTlebis diplomi

1973
1.0
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ganaTleba
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evolucia
ganaTlebis
donis
mixedviT 1973 - 2005
wlebSi
1980- ,
,

.
: Economic Policy Institute Datazone, www.epinet.
org.
0.8
1973
1976
1979
1982
1985
1988
1991
1994
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2003 2005
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M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
,
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,

, Paul Krugman and
Maurice Obstfeld, International
Economics, 7th ed., HarperCollins, New York, 2007.
411
9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM
, . 13.7 -
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.
412
412
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10
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413
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konfiskaciisgan dacva da mTliani Sida

produqti erT adamianze

.
: Daron Acemoglu, Understanding Institutions , Lionel
Robbins Lectures, 2004.
erT sulze mTliani Sida produqti

msyidvelobiTi unaris paritetis mixedviT
1995 wels . logariTmuli skala
nax. 13 - 8
LUX
USA
CHE
JPN
NOR
DNK
BEL
CAN
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ETH
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6
4
10
konfiskaciis riskisgan, saSualo dacva, 19851995
414
414
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 12
10
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47:38 PM
1945 ,
, ,
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.
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,
1996 ,
CanarTi
institutebis mniSvneloba:
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415
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14,000
. ,

, , , .
.
, . .

.
, :
.
: Daron Acemoglu, Understanding
Institutions , Lionel Robbins Lectures, 2004.
mTliani Sida produqti erT adamianze
samxreTi korea
CrdiloeTi korea
12,000
1996 wlis dolarebSi
CanarTi
, , 700 .
, 50 ,
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(OECD),
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8,000
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0
1950
nax. 1
416
416
12
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 10
1960
1970
1980
1990
1998
erT adamianze mTliani Sida produqti msyidvelobiTi unaris paritetiT

CrdiloeT da samxreT koreaSi, 1950-1998 wlebSi
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1949 , , 1970- ,
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:

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.
: , Gregory Chow, Chinas Economic
Transformation, Blackwell Publishers, New
York, 2002.
,
Jan Svejnar, China in Light of the Performance
of Central and East European Economics, IZA
Discussion Paper 2791, 2007.
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419
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?
?
(EPI)
The State of Working America . www.
stateofworkingamerica.org.
, Prentice Hall- :
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M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
423
423
9/27/2010 1:47:40 PM
9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM
damatebiT wasakiTxi
, ,
The Churn: The
Paradox of Progress, report by the Federal Reserve
Bank of Dallas, 1993.
, , : Frank
Levy and Richard Murnane, The New Division of
Labor: How Computers are Creating the Next Job
Market, Princeton UniversityPress, Princeton, NJ,
2004.
424
424
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M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 12
10
Abhijit Banerjee and

Esther Duflo, Growth Theory through the Lens of
Development Economics , in Handbook of Economic Growth, North Holland, Amsterdam, 2005
( -7 1.4 ).

Daron Acemoglu, Understanding Institutions, 2004 (cep.Ise.ac.uk/events/Lionel_robbins.
asp).
makroekonomika
9/27/2010 1:47:40 PM
9/27/2010 1:47:38 PM
molodinebi
Semdeg oTx TavSi
warmodgenilia
saxelmZRvanelos
mniSvnelovani gafarToeba,
maTSi ganxilulia gamoSvebis
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omxmarebelma, romelsac axali avtomobilis yidva surs, Tavs unda

hkiTxos: SevZleb axali avtomanqanis SesaZenad krediti usafrTxod
miviRo? momdevno ramdenime wlis ganmavlobaSi xelfasis rogor zrdas
unda velodo? mosalodnelia recesia? ramdenad garantirebulia Cemi
samuSao adgili?
menejerma, romelic mimdinare gayidvebis zrdas akvirdeba, Tavs unda
hkiTxos: es droebiTi bumia, romelsac arsebuli sawarmoo simZlavreebiT
unda Sevxvde, Tu misi gagrZelebis SemTxvevaSi axali manqana-danadgarebi
unda SevukveTo?
sapensio fondis mmarTvelma, romelic safondo bazarze bums
akvirdeba, Tavs unda hkiTxos: es droebiTi bumia, Tu bums, savaraudod,
warumatebloba Secvlis? aqciebis fasis zrda momavalSi firmis met
mogebas gviCvenebs? gaviziaro maTi molodinebi? Cemi fondis saxsrebi
mivmarTo safondo bazarze?
es magaliTebi naTels xdis, rom bevri ekonomikuri gadawyvetileba
damokidebulia ara mxolod imaze, Tu ra xdeba dRes, aramed molodinebzec,
anu imaze, Tu ra SeiZleba moxdes momavalSi. metic, zogi gadawyvetileba
naklebadaa damokidebuli imaze, Tu ra xdeba dRes. magaliTad, gayidvebis
dRes zrdam ratom unda Secvalos sainvesticio gegmebi, Tu mas momavalSi
gayidvebis mosalodneli zrda ar mohyveba? mas Semdeg, rac gayidvebi
normalur dones daubrundeba, axali manqana-danadgarebi, SesaZloa,
aRar monawileobdes procesSi. amis Semdeg isini dautvirTavi iqneba da
mtvriT daifareba.
aqamde, saqonlisa da finansuri bazrebis ganxilvisas, molodinebis
rols sistematur yuradRebas ar vaqcevdiT. Cven ugulebelvyaviT
molodinebis roli, rogorc IS-LM modelis, aseve masze dafuZnebuli
erToblivi moTxovnis AS-AD modelis komponentebSi. saqonlis
bazris ganxilvisas davuSviT, rom moxmareba damokidebulia mimdinare
Semosavalze, xolo investicia - mimdinare gayidvebze. finansuri bazrebis
ganxilvisas, aqtivebi erTmaneTTan gavaerTianeT da maT obligaciebi
vuwodeT. amis Semdeg aqcenti gadavitaneT obligaciebsa da fuls
Tavi 14
molodinebi:
ZiriTadi
instrumentebi
427
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Soris arCevanze, xolo obligaciebsa da aqciebs Soris arCevani

ugulebelvyaviT, iseve rogorc ugulebelvyaviT arCevani grZelvadian
da moklevadian obligaciebs Soris da a.S. es gamartivebebi muSaobis
ZiriTadi meqanizmebis logikis gasagebad SemovitaneT. axla ukve
droa, ekonomikur ryevebSi molodinebis rolze vifiqroT, rasac am
da momdevno sam TavSi gavakeTebT.
es Tavi ori sakvanZo cnebis SemoRebis safuZvelia:
14.1 nawili realur da nominalur saprocento ganakveTs Soris

gansxvavebas Seiswavlis.
14.2 da 14.3 nawilebSi, am gansxvavebis gaTvaliswinebiT, axlidanaa ganxiluli saprocento ganakveTze fulis masis zrdis
gavlena. amasTan, moulodneli, magram mniSvnelovani Sedegia
miRebuli: fulis zrdis maRali tempebi moklevadian periodSi
nominalur saprocento ganakveTs amcirebs, saSualovadian periodSi ki zrdis.
14.4 nawilSi meore cneba - mosalodneli mimdinare diskontirebuli Rirebulebaa ganxiluli.
14 . 1
teqnologiuri progresi da zrdis

tempi
1981 (T-bill), 12,6 .

2006
4,5 . ,
, , , 2006
, 1981 . , 2006 , 1981 .
? 1981 12 ,
2006 2 , , , : , , .
, .
, ,

. , , , 428
428
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, , , .
. , ,
?
.
( , ) . , ,
. , , 4,5 , , , , 1,045
. , t it,
1+it (

).
, , . t
rt- , ,
1+rt .
: .
:
.
?
, , , ? : ,
.
-.
, ( ). it-:
, 1+it .
. :
, ,
?
14.1 .
.
,

:
Tavi 14
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429
9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM
nax. 14 - 1

Semdegi
weli
mocemuli
weli
realuri ganakveTis
ganmarteba
saqoneli
(1
1 saqoneli
(1
rt)
(1
rt)
(1
saqoneli
1 saqoneli
P et
saqoneli
P et
it) Pt
it) Pt
1
saqoneli
realuri ganakveTis
miReba
Pt
10
,
2
,
, , 10/2=5
.
,
(1 + it ) Pt

e
, Pt +1
-.
dolarebi
(1
it) Pt
dolarebi
.14.1- . ,
. Pt , , Pt .
it , Pt ,
(1+ it ) Pt . .14.1- ,
.
, . e
. , Pt +1 ,
( , e, ,
. ,
), (1+ it ) Pt ( ,
) Pte+1 - (
), (1+ it ) Pt / Pte+1 . .
14.1- .
, .14.1- , ,
, rt , :
1 + rt = (1 + it )
Pt
Pte+1
(14.1)
430
430
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10
t- t+1- Pte+1 -.
, , , -
makroekonomika
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M01_BL
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:
te+1
(P
=
Pte+1
e
t +1
Pt
Pt
(14.2)- Pt
, 1
(14.1) . :
(1 + rt ) =
(1 + te+1 )
1 + it
1 + te+1
(14.2)

(14.3)
(14.3)
.
,
, , 20 ,
:
rt it te+1
(14.4)
(14.4) . . , ()
[ (14.4)
. , ].
(14.4) :
1 + te+1
(P
= 1+
e
t +1
Pt
Pt
(14.2)- 1
1 + te+1 =
Pte+1
Pt
1
1 + te+1
Pt
Pte+1
(14.1)-.
, -2 -6 . , i = 10%
e = 5% . (14.3) ,
rt = 4,8% . (14.4) 5%.
,
e
, i
. i = 100%
e = 80% , r = 11% ,
r = 20% .
.
0- , .
, , , , , .
,
.
, , , . ,
, 10
Tavi 14
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. , ,
1,10 . , 10 . , ,
: , , 0-
. , :
1,10 . ,
10 .
, 1 :
10- , 0- .
, , . , , . , , (14.1) (14.3) .
(CPI) , ,
,
.
nominaluri da realuri saprocento ganakveTi

SeerTebul StatebSi 1978 wlidan
. , :
2006 , 1981 ?
, -
1980- ?
.14.2-, 1978 . . ,
, ,
.
. 14.2- , (OECD) . , 2006
, , 2,2 -
432
432
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, , 2005 .
nax. 14 - 2
15.0
12.5

1978
12.6%
10.0
nominaluri ganakveTi
7.5
realuri
ganakveTi
5.0
4.5%
2.5
2.0%
0.8%
0.0
,

1980-
,
,
, 2006
,
1981 .
2.5
1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006
, (i e )
. , , (i ) . ,
( ex-ante) (ex-ante
. ).
(
ex-post) (ex-post . ).
. 14.2 .
, 2006
, 1981 ,
2006 , 1981 : 2006
2,0 1981 0,8 .
, , 2006 1981 .
1980- ( , ) .
Tavi 14
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2000 2004
. , 2001

.
- -5 .
433
9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM
14 . 2
nominaluri da realuri
saprocento ganakveTi da
IS-LM modeli
IS-LM , -5 , , :
IS
LM . - ?

.
.
. -16
-17 ,

.
IS .
14.1 , , ,
.
. , , , . IS

. r -, IS :
Y = C (Y T ) + I (Y , r ) + G
, , .
LM . LM , ,
.
? :
. , . , ,
, . ,
, , .
.
i-
. ,
, i 0 = i -,
, . ,
LM :
M
= YL(i )
p
434
434
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IS
, IS-LM :
IS : Y = C (Y T ) + I (Y , r ) + G
LM :
M
= YL(i )
p
: r = i e
, :
, ( , LM ) .
,
(, IS ) .
. , ,

- .
14 . 3
IS
: , r.
fulis zrda, inflacia da

nominaluri da realuri
saprocento ganakveTi
( 1991 ).
, ,
,
, , (1994 ).
, . ?
? : .
Tavi 14
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LM
: , i.

(Alan Blinder) (Janet Yellen)
. 24-
.
435
9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM
: , . ,
. , :
, .

, .
,
.
IS-LM modelTan dabruneba

IS- , LM . , . IS
r=i-e ,

. :
IS : Y = C (Y T ) + I (Y , i e ) + G
LM :
M
= YL(i )
p
-5 ,
: IS , .
P, M, G T
e , IS LM . 14.3 -.
436
436
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 12
10
IS .
e . ,

, , .
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nax. 14 - 3

nominaluri saprocento ganakveTi, i
LM
A
iA
rA = iA e
IS
YA = Yn

IS-LM .
gamoSveba, Y
LM . , . ,
, .
IS LM A ,
YA iA . rA
rA = iA - e.

moklevadian periodSi
, , , . . YA=Yn. ,
. , ?
, - :
,
. , ,
M/P
. . . 14.4-
, .
Tavi 14
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,

?
, , M/P , i r
, Y .
LM , LM LM' : , . ,
,
, IS :

.
IS
A- B- .
, .
nax. 14 - 4

.

.
LM
LM
A
iA
iB
rA
rB
IS
YA YB
gamoSveba Y
, :
. ,
.
: 1991
. ,
, , (
- ).
438
438
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saSualovadian periodSi
. ,
. ?
, :
,
Yn- (10- 13 . , , Yn ).
-6
6.5 .
.
, IS :
Y =C (Y-T) + I (Y,r) + G
IS , - , G- T-
, , r, , Y, . , , Yn- , , G-
T- :
Yn = C (Yn -T) + I(Yn, r) + G

, rn-.
,
Yn-,
:

(Wicksell) -20 .
, rn-.
.

.
Tavi 14
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-9
9.2 .
439
9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM

( gY =0), = gm
: , ,
. 3 , 3 . 3
, ( ). ,
10 , 7 .
( ), .
, ,
. , ,
:
i = r + e
, , rn, . ,
(
). :
i = rn +
,
, :
i = rn + gm
. ,
.
: , .
, , 10 , , 10- 10- , . ,
, 440
440
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,
(Irving Fisher) ,
.
,
:
,
, ,
.
Irving Fisher, The Rate of Interest,

Macmillan, New York, 1906.

. .
moklevadiani periodidan saSualovadian periodamde

,
: ( )
?
,
. ,
.
, , .
? , :
, ,
, . .
:
-, - , , ,
.
, ,
.
, , , ,
,
. ,
, .
Tavi 14
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CanarTi
nominaluri saprocento ganakveTi da inflacia

laTinuri amerikis qveynebSi,
1990-iani wlebis dasawyisSi
1 ,
(, , , ,
, , )
1992 1993 .
.
, , ,
(1992 1008
, 1560 ,
1993 2140
, 3240 !).
, .
,
, ,

.

10- 100 .
1990 .

.
.
,
,
5 ,
i=5%+, 1.
1-
1-
.

. ,
,
, . , , ,
, , .
. 14.5 , t
, , 0- 10 . t 442
442
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nominaluri saprocento ganakveTi (procenti)
175
, ,
1990 .
P92
150
5%
125
U92
P93
100
U93
A:
B:
C:
E:
M:
P:
U:
V:
75
B93
B92
50
25
E93
C93
C92
M93
A92
M92
A93
0
E92
V93
V92
50
100
argentina
bolivia
Cile
ekvadori
meqsika
peru
urugvai
venesuela
150
inflaciis tempi (procenti)
naxati 1
nominaluri saprocento ganakveTi da inflacia

laTinur amerikaSi 1992-1993 wlebSi
CanarTi
, . .
. , rn-
( ).
t 0- 10 .

. , , .
,
. . , 10 , . ,
Tavi 14
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. ,

,

, ,

.
, 10 .
realuri, nominaluri, saprocento ganakveTi
nax. 14 - 5
rn 10%
nominaluri saprocento ganakveTi
rn
realuri saprocento ganakveTi
fiSeris hipoTezis magaliTebi

, (,
5, 5.5). , - - - ?
,
.
.
, , ,
. : 1990- .
,
.

. , ,
444
444
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. , , ,
. , . . 14.6-
1927 . ,
.
. 14.6 :
1960 1980-
,
1980-
. .
, , . 1970-
, 1980-
,
.
inflaciisa da saxazino valdebulebebis ganakveTi, procenti
nax. 14 - 6
20
15
inflaciis ganakveTi
saxazino valdebulebebis
ganakveTi
10

1927
1960 1980-

,
1980-

.
25
2 10
2 15
1925 1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2006
Tavi 14
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,
,
.
, ,
. , .
, . 1940 .
.

.
. (Milton Friedman)
, -8 . , , .
14 . 4
mosalodneli mimdinare
diskontirebuli Rirebuleba
, , , .
, , , - . , . , -
. ,
: -
.

.
:
.
, .
- .
,
-. , .
, .
. , .
446
446
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mosalodneli mimdinare diskontirebuli Rirebulebis

gaTvla
it,
1 1+it . , ,
1+it . , 1 1+it .
. 14.7- .
: 1 ? .14.7- , 1/(1+it) .
: 1/(1+it) , (1+ it) x 1/(1+ it)=1 . , 1/
(1+it) , . , 1/
(1+it) .
, , 1/(1+ it) 1
. ,
. , 1/(1+ it), ( it-
).
,
:
1 1 . ,
1 . i=5%,
1/1,05 95 . i=10%,
1/1,10 91 .
. , . , it it+1
.
1 ,
(1 + it )(1 + it +1 ) . ,
1 2 (1 + it )(1 + it +1 ) . . 14.7- .
? ,
1 (1 + it )(1 + it +1 ) : 1 (1 + it )(1 + it +1 ) , 1 . ,
1
Tavi 14
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it: -
. 1/(1+it):
. , .
447
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nax. 14 - 5
mocemuli weli
Semdegi weli
$1
$(1
1
$1
(1
1
it) (1
it )
$1
it
2 weli am droidan
$(1
it
it ) (1
it
1)
$1
1)
1 (1 + it )(1 + it +1 ) . .14.7- . , ,
5 , it = it +1 = 5% , 1
1 (1, 05) 2 -, 91 , .
zogadi formula

, .
,
. , , . $zt-, $zt+1-,
$zt+2- ..

$Vt -. :
$Vt = $ zt +
1
1
$ zt +1 +
$ zt + 2 + ...
(1 + it )
(1 + it )(1 + it +1 )
. ,
, , . , . , .
,
.
.

- ;
. ,
448
448
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,
.
, ? , -

.
$ zte+1 -, , $ zte+ 2 -
. e
it +1 - (
, it, , e ).

:
$Vt = $ zt +
1
1
$ zte+1 +
$ zte+ 2 + ...
(1 + it )
(1 + it )(1 + ite+1 )
(14.5)

, , ,
() . ,
(14.5) , . V($zt) , , V($z) , $z .
, .
, (, ,
)
,
, ,
. ,

-15 .
.
dayvanili (mimdinare) Rirebulebis gamoyeneba:

magaliTebi
(14.5) :

. $ze
$ z -
.
,
, . i- ie- . (14.5) ,
.
Tavi 14
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$z $ z $V
i i e $V
449
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mudmivi saprocento ganakveTi

,
e
(.. it = it +1 = ... ) i-. (14.5) :
1
1
$Vt = $ zt +
$ zte+1 +
$ zte+ 2 + ...
(14.6)
2
1
+
i
( )
(1 + i )
1 / (1 + i ) n = (1 / (1 + i )) n
, . 1,
n 1 1/ (1 + i ) n . ,
. ,
10 , -10 1/ (1 + 0,10)10 = 0,386 . , -10 1000 386 . 30-
1/ (1 + 0,10)30 = 0, 057 , , 30- 1000 57 !
. , -2 .
mudmivi saprocento ganakveTi da gadaxdebi

, , . , 30- , , 30
. n , .
$z - ( ). (14.6) :

. , 2
.
1
1
$Vt = $ z 1 +
+ ... +
n 1
(1 + i )
1 + i
, .
1 1/ (1 + i ) n
$Vt = $ z
1 [1/ (1 + i ) ]
1 1 , ,
, (
).
450
450
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1 6- . , ,
, 20
, 50000 .
? , 6 , V=$50000(0,688)/(0,057)=$608000. ,
, i 4%?,
8%? (: 706
, 530 ).
mudmivi saprocento ganakveTi da uvado gadaxdebi

,
, . ,
. ( ), .
$z-. ,
, ( ). (14.6) :

,
.
$Vt =
1
1
1
1
+ ... $ z
$z +
$ z + ... =
1 +
2
(1 + i ) (1 + i )
(1 + i )
(1 + i )
1/(1+i)-
. : ,

:
$Vt =
1
1
$z
(1 + i ) (1 (1 /( 1 + i )
( ,
-2 )
$Vt =
$z
i
$z-
i- . , , 5 Tavi 14
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, , , , 10 , $10/0,05 =
$200. 10
, $10/0,10= $100.
nulovani saprocento ganakveTi

,
. ,
, . ,
: i=0, 1/(1+i)=1,
n- (1 (1 + i ) n ) =1. ,
. , , . , 0- ,
. .
nominaluri da realuri saprocento ganakveTi da

dayvanili Rirebuleba

. (14.5)
$Vt = $ zt +
1
1
$ zte+1 +
$ zte+ 2 + ...
e
1
+
i
( t)
(1 + it ) 1 + it +1
it ,ite+1, ... , $ zt , $ zte+1 $ zte+ 2, ...

.
,
, .
, , ,
, ,
. ,
,
452
452
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Vt = zt +
1
1
zte+1 +
zte+ 2 + ...
e
(1 + rt )
1
1
+
r
+
r
( t ) t +1
(14.7)
rt , rt +1 ,... e
e
, zt , zt +1 , zt + 2 ,....
, Vt .
, , (14.5) $ Vt
Pt , (14.7) Vt

.
,
:

$Vt Pt = Vt
: .
.
.
.
? .
, .
, , . , , . , 10-
50 10
, , 1000 . , -15 ,
(14.5) ,
(14.7) , .
, ,
. ,
20 : , . ,
, -
Tavi 14
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. , . (14.5) , , , (14.7)
,
. , -16
,
(14.7) (14.5) .
Sejameba
,
.
,
.
.

. ,
IS , LM
.
, .

,
454
454
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 16
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10
,
,
. ,

.

. .

.

.
makroekonomika
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9/27/2010 1:47:38 PM
M01
M01_BL
0 PM
47:38 PM
sakvanZo terminebi

, 429
, 429
,
, 441

, 446
, 446
, 446

, 447
()
, 449

1. , , . .
. ,

.
. , .
. , ,
.
.

.
. .
. ,
.
. 1990 .
. .
Tavi 14
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M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
.
.
2.
()- ()

? .
. - .
. 20- .
. .
3. ()- ()-
.
. i = 4%; = 2%
e
. i = 15%; = 11%
e
. i = 54%; = 46%
e
4. .
455
455
9/27/2010 1:47:40 PM
9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM
. , ? .
. , ?
? ,

?
. ?
. (The Economist)
(Economic Indicators and
Financial Indicators ). ,
, (
).
?
?

?
5. [Individual Retirement Arrangement (IRA)] M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 16

[Roth
Individual Retirement Arrangement (IRA)]- .
, 2000
40 . , (i) (ii), -.
i. ,

25%- ( ,
[IRA]).
ii. 20%- ,
456
456
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 12
16
10

( ,
[Roth IRA]).
.
, 1%? 10%?
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.
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,
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, ,
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9/27/2010
, $z
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i = 5%-.
1:47:40 PM
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. ?
. 1990 ? .
. , . ,
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makroekonomika
9/27/2010 1:47:38
1:47:40 PM
M01
M01_BL
47:40 PM
47:38
47:40 PM
,
, . ? .
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, . , . .
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.

, . ,
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(www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h15/Current)

.
.
. ,
?
, Prentice Hall- :
Tavi 14
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 16
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
457
457
9/27/2010 1:47:40 PM
9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM
danarTi:
mosalodneli mimdinare diskontirebuli Rirebulebis gamoTvla

realuri da nominaluri saproceso ganakveTis mixedviT
, ,
(14.5) (14.7) , .
(14.5) ,

:

,
1 Pte+1 $ zte+1
1 + it Pt Pte+1
, $ zte+1 / Pt e+1 ,
t+1 zte+1 - . Pt +1 / Pt ,

(1 + te+1 ) , ,
1 + (Pte+1 Pt )/ Pt .
:
e
$Vt = $ zt +
1
1
$ zt +1 +
$ zt + 2 + ...
1 + it
(1 + it )(1 + it +1 )
(14.5)
(14.7) ,

.
Vt = zt +
1
1
zte+1 +
zte+ 2 + ...
(1 + rt
(1 + rt )(1 + rte+1
(1 + )z
e
t +1
(14.3) ,
,
:
(14.7)
(14.5)
Pt . :
$Vt $ zt
$ zte+ 2
1 $ zte+1
1
=
+
+
+ ...
Pt
pt 1 + it Pt
(1 + it )(1 + ite+)1 Pt
, $ zt Pt . ,
$ zt Pt = zt . , (14.7)
.
:
1 $ zte+1
1 + it Pt
458
458
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 12
10
1 + r = (1 + i ) 1 + e .
t
t
t +1
(14.A1)
(14.A1)
,
(14.7) :
e
t +1
(1 + it )
1
ze
(1 + rt ) t +1
(14.7) .
. ,
.
makroekonomika
9/27/2010 1:47:38 PM
M01_BL
47:38 PM
, (14.7) (14.A1) . ,
, ,
Vt =
$Vt
Pt
,

, -
Tavi 14
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5

[(14.7)
],

[(14.A1)
] .
459
9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM
inansuri bazris ganxilvis pirveli mcdelobisas, me-4 TavSi,

davuSviT, rom mxolod ori saxis aqtivi: fuli da erTwliani
obligacia arsebobda. axla ekonomikas arafuladi aqtivebis ufro
mravalferovani da ufro realisturi maxasiaTeblebiT ganvixilavT:
esaa moklevadiani obligaciebi, grZelvadiani obligaciebi da aqciebi.
am TavSi yuradReba obligaciebisa da aqciebis fasis gansazRvris procesSi
molodinebis
rolzea
gamaxvilebuli
(amis
mizezi
makroekonomikis
saxelmZRvaneloSia: rogorc naxavT, garda imisa, rom es fasebi mimdinare
da momavali saqmianobis gaTvaliswinebiT ganisazRvreba, isini, Tavis mxriv,
mimdinare saqmianobis ganmsazRvrel gadawyvetilebebze zemoqmedebs. amis gageba
ekonomikuri ryevebis axsnaSi gvexmareba).
15.1 nawilSi ganixileba obligaciebis fasebi da obligaciebis Semosavlianoba. naCvenebia, Tu rogoraa damokidebuli obligaciis fasi da Semosavlianoba mimdinare da momavalSi mosalodnel moklevadian saprocento ganakveTze; rogor SegviZlia gamoviyenoT Semosavlianobis mrudi
momavalSi moklevadiani saprocento ganakveTebis mosalodneli cvlilebebis dasadgenad.
15.2 nawilSi ganixileba aqciis fasebi. naCvenebia, Tu rogoraa damokidebuli aqciis fasebi mimdinare da momavalSi mosalodnel mogebaze, iseve
rogorc mimdinare da momavalSi mosalodnel saprocento ganakveTebze;
gaanalizebulia, Tu ra gavlenas axdens saqmiani aqtivobis dinamika aqciebis
fasebze.
15.3 nawilSi ganixileba axireba da sapnis buStebi finansur bazarze, epizodebi, rodesac aqciis fasebis cvlileba mogebisa da saprocento ganakveTebis cvlilebas ar ukavSirdeba.
Tavi 15
finansuri
bazrebi da
molodinebi
461
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 3
9/27/2010 1:47:35 PM
15 . 1
, .
.
.
,
,
Treasury Bonds, Notes and Bills
(
,
)
Wall
Wall Street Journal
Journal- Money &
Investing ( ). Market Data Center,
Bonds, Rates, Credit
Markets , Bond Yields,
Treasury Issues.
462
462
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 12
10
obligaciis fasebi da Semosavlianoba
, ( , )
.
( ) ,

. ,
1000 , ; ,
20 100 , , 20
1000 , . ,
.
, , , , . , ,
,
, .
.

( ) . ,
. 15.1- -
2000 1 2001 1 .
; .
, 2000 1
6,2- 5,8- .
,
, . , , 2001
1 , 3,5- 5,7- .
2000
2001 ? ,
2000 , , 2001
makroekonomika
9/27/2010 1:47:38 PM
M01_BL
47:38 PM
nax. 15 - 1
Semosavali (procenti)
noemberi 2000 weli
aSS-is Semosavlianobis mrudebi: 2000 wlis

1 noemberi da 2001
wlis 1 ivnisi
ivnisi 2001 weli
3
3 Tve
6 Tve
1 weli
2 weli
3 weli
dafarvis vada
5 weli
10 weli
30 weli
,
2000
,
.
, ?
? , , , ,
:
1. .
2. ,
.
obligaciis fasebi da mimdinare Rirebulebebi

: , 100 ,
100 . , , .
.
:
, (
).
, 100
, 14.2 , 100 , $ P1t ,
. , i1t . , t i1t
- it -, .
, . ,
Tavi 15
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
finansuri bazrebi da molodinebi
463
9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM
obligaciebis bazris leqsikoni

, .
CanarTi

.
, , () .
- , ( ,
), : Standard & Poors (S&P)
Moodys Investors Service, . Moodys Aaa-,
, , -
, C-, .
,

, . ,

,
() , .
$ P1t =

(junk bonds) .
,
, .
.
,

.
. . .

.
,
5- ,
100 ,
80 . 5-

5 80 = 0, 0625 = 6, 25%.
$100
1 + i1t
(15.1)

.
-4
, 4.2 .
464
464
makroekonomika
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 12
10
, 100
$ P2t - ,
9/27/2010 1:47:38 PM
M01_BL
47:38 PM
CanarTi
, , (indexed bonds), , ,
. , 100
, 100X (1 + )
, ,

. ,

,
, ,

.

, ,
.
( ) - 1997 . , -
10 ,
, , .
.
,
, ;
, (
) .
.
-
, .
(Treasury bills), T-bills .

. 1- 10 (Treasury notes) . 10
(Treasury bonds) .
, .
, , : . ,
100
:
$ P2t =
$100
(1 + i1t )(1 + i1et +1 )
(15.2)
i1t ,
i1et +1 - Tavi 15
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
465
9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM
. ,
.
arbitraJi da obligaciis fasebi

(15.1) (15.2) ,
(15.2) . .
, , . ?
, . , , (1 + i1t ) . 15.2 .
, . $ P2t , , , $1 $ P2t .
, . , . ,
, $ P1et+1 ,
.
, ,
, $1 $ P2t - $ P1et+1 , ,
, $ P1et+1 $ P2t . .15.2-
.
? , ( -
nax. 15 - 2
erTwliani da orwliani
obligaciebidan
miRebuli Semosavali
erT weliwadSi
weli t
weli t
erTwliani
obligaciebi
$1
$1 gamravlebuli (1
orwliani
obligaciebi
$1
$1 gamravlebuli $P 1t
$P 2t
i1t)
e
. : , ,
, , . -
466
466
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 12
10
makroekonomika
9/27/2010 1:47:38 PM
M01_BL
47:38 PM
, , .
, , , ; . , ).
,
. , . , ,
.
. ,
, ,
, .

, .15.2 -
1 + i1t =
$ P1et+1
$ P2t
(15.3)
(15.3) ;
. (15.3) , , . (15.3)
:
$ P2t =
$ P1et+1
1 + i1t

.
, ,

.
(15.4)
,
.
: , $ P1et+1 ?
: ,
.
(15.1) (t + 1) ,
, :
$ P1et+1 =
$100
(1 + i1et +1 )
Tavi 15
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
467
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(100 ) .
$ P1et+1 - (15.4) $100 (1 + i1et +1 ) - ,
:

,

.
$ P2t =
$100
(1 + i1t )(1 + i1et +1 )
(15.5)
(15.2) . ,
- , , , 100 , .
obligaciebis fasebidan obligaciebis Semosvlianobamde

, . :
, , .
: n , , n -
, ,
( , ) ()
.
, . , , . i2t
- , 2 , , , . , ,
100 () . , :
$ P2t =
$100
(1 + i2t ) 2
(15.6)
, 90 .
i2t ( 10 0 90 1 )-, , 5,4%-.
468
468
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 12
10
makroekonomika
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M01_BL
47:38 PM
,
5,4 .

? (15.6) (15.5)
. $ P2t - . :
$100
(1 + i2t )
$90 = $100 (1 + i2t ) 2

(1 + i2t ) 2 = $100 $90
(1 + i2t ) 2 = $100 $90
i2t = 5, 4%
$100
(1 + i1t )(1 + i1et +1 )
:
(1 + i2t ) 2 = (1 + i1t )(1 + i1et +1 )
,
, i2t , , i1t , , ite+1 . :
i2t
1
(i1t + i1et +1 )
2

-14 ,
. -2
-3 .
(15.7)
(15.7) ,
()
.
- , .
. :
()
. , ,
. , ()

.
:
.
Tavi 15
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469
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Semosavlianobis mrudis interpretacia

, - , ,
.
, .
, ,
. , i2t , , i1t . e
(15.7) i1t +1
:
i1et +1 = 2i2t i1t
(15.8)

. , 2001
1 , . 15.1-.
2001 1 , i1t , 3,4
, , i2t , 4,1 . (15.8) , 2001 1
, ..
2002 1 , 2 4,1% 3, 4% = 4,8%
1,4 , 2001 1 . : 2001 1
, .
: , .. , ,
. , ..
, ,

.
Semosvlianobis mrudi da ekonomikuri aqtivoba

: , , 2000 , 2001
? , ,
, 2000 470
470
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 12
10
makroekonomika
9/27/2010 1:47:38 PM
M01_BL
47:38 PM
, 2001
.
: , 2001
. , ,
, , .
, .
, - ,
-5 IS LM . ,
, . ,
0- , ,
, -14 , . .
2000 ,
- .
, ,
, (, ) , ,
. , , , .
IS LM -17 ,
,
,
IS LM
.
, (
) (
),
.
-5 -
2001 .
nax. 15 - 3
LM
IS
IS (prognozi)
Yn
gamoSveba, Y
.15-3-. -
A i Y . , Y , ,
Tavi 15
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
aSS-is ekonomika 2000

wlis noembridan
2000

.
, ,

.
471
9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM
, Yn , .
IS IS IS
,
, Yn , , i
- i - . 2000 .
, . 2000
. , , .15.4-.
:
. , , , IS IS (. . 15.3),
IS , . 15.4- , IS .
, LM A B , .
nax. 15 - 4
aSS-is ekonomika 2000
wlis noembridan 2001
wlis ivnisamde
2000
2001
,
,

.
danaxarjebis
arasasurveli
cvlileba
LM
LM
A
B
monetaruli
eqspansia
i
IS
IS (realizebuli)
Y
gamoSveba, Y
472
472
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 12
10
, . ,
,
2001 , LM . LM 2001
B A . , ,
.
makroekonomika
9/27/2010 1:47:38 PM
M01_BL
47:38 PM
:
, , 2000 1 2001 1
,

, . : 2001
? , 2001 ?
, , 2001 - . .15.5- ,
:
, IS , IS IS .
, 2001
. , , 2001
.
, IS , . .
15.5- , , LM
.
,
- A A ,

.
, , 2001
.
, 2001
. ,
2002 . ? .
, , 2
, 2004 , .
: ,
.
Tavi 15
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473
9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM
aSS-is ekonomikis mosalodneli ganviTareba 2001 wlis ivnisidan

2001 ,

,

.
nax. 15 - 5
LM (prognozireba)
LM
i
IS (prognozireba)
IS
Y
Yn
gamoSveba, Y
, ( , ) ,
.
15 . 2
, (Dow Jones
Industrial),
S&P

.
. (The Nikkei index)
, FT CAC

, .
474
474
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 12
10
safondo bazari da aqciebis fasebis

dinamika
. , .
:
; (
) . , . . ,
, . : , .
. , , - , Standard & Poors 500 (, , S&P )
1980- 2006 . S&P
500 .
. 15.6 ,
S&P
, , , 1990
makroekonomika
9/27/2010 1:47:38 PM
M01_BL
47:38 PM
1- .
1990- , 1990 1- 2000 3,24-, 2000- , 2000 3,24- 2003
1,78-. (2007 )
, 2000
. 1990 ? 2000- ? ,
?
, .
3.5
nax. 15 - 6
3.0
Standard
2.5
indeqsi
&
Poorks
krebsiTi (Sedgenili)
indeqsi realur gamoxatulebaSi 1980 wlidan
2.0
, 1990-

2000-
.
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006
aqciebis fasi da dayvanili (mimdinare) Rirebuleba

,
? , -14
: () .
, $Qt . , $ Dt , $ Dte+1 , $ Dte+ 2
, ..
, . ,
(ex-dividend price). , , (
Tavi 15
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
475
9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM
. ,
. ?),
:
$Qt =
,
:

,
.

,

.
476
476
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 12
10
$ Dte+1
$ Dte+ 2
+
+L
1 + i1t (1 + i1t )(1 + i1et +1 )
(15.9)
,
, ,
..
,
() (15.9) , ,

. ( , ).
(15.9) , () , . -14 ,
,
,
. ,
Qt =
Dte+1
Dte+ 2
+
+L
1 + r1t (1 + r1t )(1 + r1et +1 )
(15.10)
Qt Dt
t .
() , .
.
.
,
.
makroekonomika
9/27/2010 1:47:38 PM
M01_BL
47:38 PM
safondo bazari da ekonomikuri aqtivoba

. 15.6- 26 ()
.
15- . 1997
24 ( ); 2001 22
. 2-
. ?
, , . ,

. ,
20
, , .
. , .
, .
, . :
, ,
. , , ,
. , . , , . ,
,
. .
, , ?
:

,
(Random walk) .
,
: ,
,
,

, . , .
(Monday-morning quarterbacking) , .
- ?. : , ,
?
, IS LM . , , , Tavi 15
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
477
9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM
0- ,
.
1998 30 0,5
. , ,

(, 28
).

, 1998 15 ,
0,25 .

,

. ,
330 .
3 .
monetaruli eqspansia da safondo bazari

,
, .
.15.7 - LM
A - A . ?
,
, . , , . , (15.9)
.
, ,
. . : ,
. , , , (
) , , . (15.9) , .

.
,
, .
nax. 15 - 7
eqspansiuri monetaruli politika da safondo bazari
LM
LM
A
IS
Y
gamoSveba, Y
478
478
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 12
10
makroekonomika
9/27/2010 1:47:38 PM
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47:38 PM
samomxmareblo xarjebis zrda da safondo bazari

IS , , ,
. . 15.8 ()- A -
A - .
LM
A
A
(b)
IS
IS
(a)
nax. 15 - 8
cicabo
LM
A
A
IS
YA
gamoSveba, Y
(c)
LM
IS
YA
federaluri sarezervo
sistema zRudavs
damreci
gamoSveba, Y
LM
LM
LM
A
federaluri sarezervo sistema
zrdis fulis miwodebas
IS
IS
YA
gamoSveba, Y
?
: . , , .
,
: LM , ,
.
, , . .
? LM
. .15.8 ()-. LM A
Tavi 15
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
samomxmareblo xarjebis zrda da safondo bazari

. ():

.

,
LM

.
. (): LM
,

, . .
LM , , .
.
. ():
,

, . .

,

, .
.
479
9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM
aSkara nonsensis gaazreba: ratom Seicvala

safondo bazari guSin da sxva ambebi
CanarTi
, Wall Street Journal 1997 2001

. , - :
1997 . ,
:
()

.
, ,

(Blue-chip)
,
,
.
1999 .
, :

...

.
, .
1998 .
, :
-
.
- A - , , , , . LM A - A -
,
, , , .
, IS
.
, . - : ?
480
480
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 12
10
IS ?

makroekonomika
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M01_BL
47:38 PM
2001 .
, :

, , ,
, . 2- .
CanarTi

?
.15.8 ()- LM , LM LM
. A A . , , , , , .
LM ? , LM . ,
. , ,
.
, , YA - ?
Tavi 15
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
481
9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM
, , ,
LM
, -5
.

,

.
, ,
.15.8 ()- YA - Yn - .
, . , IS
, LM , LM
LM , ,
, A A . , , : ,
,
, .
: . , .
, : 1)
; 2)
; 3)
.
15 . 3
`sapnis buStebi~, axireba da aqciis

fasi
? . 1929 , -
23- , 1987 19 , 22,6 .
( )
13000- (1985 .) 35000- (1989 .), 1992
16000- . ,
, , , .
, ,
, (15.10) , , . , 1929 , , .
482
482
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 12
10
makroekonomika
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M01_BL
47:38 PM
? : ,
.
, , (.. , ,
). (15.10) Dte+1 , Dte+ 2 .. 0- :
0- .
, ? , , , .
:
, . ,
, .
:
,
. ,

, , , .
, , ,
, , .
,
.
: , ,
. , , .
: 1994
.

? , . , . , , ,
, . ,
, ,
, (
) , , , .
. -
Tavi 15
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
:
,
.
, .

,
.

,

.
483
9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM
cnobili finansuri `sapnis buStebi~, me17 saukunis

holandiaSi titebis maniidan 1994 wlis ruseTamde
CanarTi

. ,
.
, , 1634 1637
. 1634 . ,
,
, . ,
,
(Admiral Van de Eyck) , 1634
1500 1637 7500 ,
. ,
, . 1637 -
. 20

. 1637 , . 10
.
MMM
1994
MMM , 3000-
.

. MMM- 1600 (
1 )
105000 ( 51 )
. , , 10 .
;
, .
, .15.6-
: 1990- , ?
, 1990- . 1990-1991 - , ,
. , , 1990- . -13 ,
; ,
484
484
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 12
10
makroekonomika
9/27/2010 1:47:38 PM
M01_BL
47:38 PM
1994

. . , , ,

. ,
, .
,
, ,
,
. !
:
(Peter Garber) , Tulipmania,
Journal of Political Economy, 1989,
535-560.
. (,
, -14 ),
, .
, .
,
, ?
( ) . ,
. 1990 400 2000 3900- 2003
1350-. ,
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M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
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9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM
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M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 16
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 12
10
.

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9/27/2010 1:47:40 PM
9/27/2010 1:47:38 PM
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Tavi 15
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 16
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
, 465
, 466
, 467

n- , 468
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9/27/2010 1:47:40 PM
9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM

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488
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 16
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 12
10
3. , 5
5,5 ,
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9/27/2010 1:47:40 PM
9/27/2010 1:47:38 PM
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47:38 PM
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damatebiT gasaanalizebeli
8.
1970- , -
.
(Paul Volcker)
1979 .
,
. Tavi 15
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 16
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5

, , ,
.
(www.research.stlouifed.org/fred2)
.

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9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM
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Open Market Committee) .
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, Prentice Hall- :
damatebiT wasakiTxi
. - , Burton Malkin, A
Random Walk Down Wall Street, 9th ed., Norton, New York, 2006.
490
490
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 16
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 12
10

: Peter Garbin, Famous First
Bubbles , Journal of Economic Perspectives,
Spring 1990, 35-54.
makroekonomika
9/27/2010 1:47:40 PM
9/27/2010 1:47:38 PM
M01_BL
0 PM
47:38 PM
danarTi:
arbitraJi da aqciebis fasi
.
, , ,

.
,

,
,
. ,
.
arbitraJi da aqciebis fasi

:
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,
(1 + i1t ) .
. 1- .
, .
, . Qt ,
, , $1/ $Qt . , , ($ Dte+1 + $Qte+1 )
- , . ,
, ,
($ Dte+1 + $Qte+1 ) $Qt - .
. 1- .
Tavi 15
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
1-wliani
obligaciebi
aqciebi
naxati 1
weli t
weli t
$1
$1 (1
i1t )
$D et
$Q et
$1
$1
$Qt
erTwliani obligaciebis an erTi wliT

aqciebis flobidan Semosavlianoba
, ,
. , . , , :
($ Dte+1 + $Qte+1 )
= 1 + i1t
$Qt
:
$Qt =
$ Dte+1
$Qte+1
+
(1 + i1t ) (1 + i1t )
(15.A1)
,

.

$Qte+1 -,
.
. , .
, t + 1 :
491
9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM
$Qte+1 =
$ Dte+ 2
(1 + i1et +1 )
$Qte+ 2
(1 + i1et +1 )
,
,
. $Qte+1 - (15.A1) :
$Qt =
$ Dte+1
$ Dte+ 2
$Qte+ 2
+
+
(1 + i1t ) (1 + i1t )(1 + i1et +1 ) (1 + i1t )(1 + i1et +1 )

.

, n , :
$Qt =
$Dte+1
$ Dte+ n
+ ... +
+
(1 + i1t )
(1 + i1t )...(1 + i1et + n 1 )
$ Dte+ n
+
(1 + i1t )...(1 + i1et + n 1 )
(15.A2)
(15.A2)
n
.
Qte+ n , n-
0- . , , , i- .
:
$Qte+ n
(1 + i1t )L (1 + i1et + n 1 )
492
492
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 12
10
$Qte+ n
(1 + i ) n
, , $Q - . , :
$Qte+ n
(1 + i ) n
$Q
(1 + i ) n
,
n- 0-. (15.A2) (15.9) :
.
(: , ,
- , . ,
[. 15.3 ], ,
, .
, ,
).
dayvanili mimdinare Rirebulebis

formulis gafarToeba riskis
gaTvaliswinebiT
-14 ,
. , , .
,
.
, , ,
.
makroekonomika
9/27/2010 1:47:38 PM
M01_BL
47:38 PM
, .
. ,

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,
, .
, ,
, , ,
.
. - (
). , 5
, ,
, 5

.

:
$ Dte+1
+ $Qte+1
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$Qt =
= 1 + i1t +
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$ Dte+ n
+L +
+L
(1 + i1t + )
(1 + i1t + )L (1 + i1et + n 1 + )
. ,

. ,
, . 100 -
5 .
( , ). , 1950-
7- 3
.
.
sakvanZo terminebi
Tavi 15
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
. ( Qte+1
- t + 1 ..), ,
, 492
,
492
, 493
, 493
493
9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM
anvixileT ra molodinebis roli finansur bazrebze, axla

vubrundebiT molodinebTan dakavSirebul realur situaciebs,
raTa ukeT ganvsazRvroT danaxarjebis ori mTavari komponenti
- moxmareba da investiciebi. aRniSnuli komponentebis aRwera
gafarToebuli IS-LM modelis mTavari standartuli blokia, rasac
me-17 TavSi srulvyofT.
16.1 nawili ganixilavs moxmarebas da gviCvenebs, Tu rogoraa damokidebuli

adamianis samomxmareblo gadawyvetileba ara mxolod mis mimdinare Semosavalze, aramed momavali Semosavlebis molodinsa da finansur keTildReobaze.
16.2 nawili ubrundeba investiciebs da gviCvenebs, sainvesticio gadawyvetilebebi rogoraa damokidebuli mimdinare da mosalodnel mogebebsa
da realur mosalodnel saprocento ganakveTebze.
16.3 nawilSi ganxilulia moxmarebisa da investiciebis cvlilebebi droTa

ganmavlobaSi da naCvenebia, Tu rogor moxdes am cvlilebebis interpretacia im codnis gamoyenebiT, romelic am TavSia warmodgenili.
Tavi 16
molodini,
moxmareba da
investicia
495
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 3
9/27/2010 1:47:35 PM
16 . 1

1976 ,
1985
.
-3 :
-
70
.
moxmareba
? , . , ,
,
. , .
, , 1950-
(Milton Friedman)
(Franco Modigliani),
.
. .

.

: -
, ,
. , ,
PSID. -
: .
,
,

. , .
Zalian windaxeduli momxmarebeli

,
,
.
. , ? :
496
496
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 12
10
makroekonomika
9/27/2010 1:47:38 PM
M01_BL
47:38 PM
1. , ,
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.

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,
..
2.

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+
=
, . , , :
Ct = C ( t)
(16.1)
Ct t , ( t) t
(
) (t

) .
: , , ,
. , ,
.
Tavi 16
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
molodini, moxmareba da investicia
497
9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM
CanarTi
sakmaod axlo da piradi: paneluri monacemebis

erTobliobidan Seswavla

,

.
, , (CPS)
-6 .

(PSID Panel Study of Income Dynamics).

1968 , , 4800 .
()
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498
498
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 12
10
, 19
.

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9/27/2010 1:47:38 PM
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47:38 PM
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, [(14.7) ]. , YLt -
t . Tt -
t . V (YLte Tte ) - t ,

.
, , ,
. , , , :
V (YLte Tte ) = ($40000)(0, 75)[1 + (1, 03) + (1, 03) 2 + K + (1, 03)38 ]
($40000) , 2000 .
(0,75) , 75 .
Tavi 16
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
499
9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM
[1 + (1, 03) + (1, 03) 2 + K + (1, 03)38 ] , 39 , , 3

( 22
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ufro realisturi aRwerilobisken

,
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1.
. , , ,
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500
500
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 12
10
makroekonomika
9/27/2010 1:47:38 PM
M01_BL
47:38 PM
2. ,

,
. ,
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3. . , ,
The New Yorker Collection 1997 Roz Chast from cartoonbank.com. All Rights Reserved.
Tavi 16
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
501
9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM
, . , , ? , , 112032 .
4. 112032 , ,
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502
502
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 12
10
makroekonomika
9/27/2010 1:47:38 PM
M01_BL
47:38 PM
(, ,
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?).
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sakiTxebis Tavmoyra: mimdinare Semosavali, molodinebi

da moxmareba
, , . ,
(16.2) ,
:
:
, ,

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: , . , ,
, . -15 ,
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Tavi 16
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
.

.
503
9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM
CanarTi
sakmarisad zogaven Tu ara adamianebi

sapensio asakisTvis?
504
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 12
?
- , .
1,
(Steven Venti) ( )
(David Wise) (
) , .

(Survay of Income and Program Participation)
. 1991
()
65- 69 ,
.
-

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314000
(, -
, 1991 ,
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, . (Scholz),
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(Khitatrakun) ( )
.
,
(Health and Retirement
Study) . 7000 , 1992
, ,
51- 61
.

, ,
(

). ,

..
,
,
.
makroekonomika
9/27/2010 1:47:38 PM
M01_BL
47:38 PM
65-69 wlis asakis adamianebis

saSualo simdidre 1991 wels
(1991 wlis aTas dolarSi)
$100
socialuri uzrunvelyofis pensia

damqiraveblebis mier SeTavazebuli pensia
62
piradi sapensio aqtivebi
11
sxva finansuri aqtivebi
42
sakuTari kapitali
65
sxva kapitali
34
sul
$314
: Venti and Wise, A1. .
: ,
. , , 80

.
,
20
.
.

90
,
.
,
,
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, , 20 , 70
Tavi 16
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
.
30 ,
, , .

,
, ,
, ,
,

. ,

( 1- )
, ,
,
, ,
.
,
-
,
. , .
: Steven Venti and David Wise, The

Wealth of Cohorts: Retirement and Saving and
the Changing Assets of Older Americans, in
Sylvester Schieber and John B. Shoven (eds.),
Public Policy Toward Pensions, MIT Press,
Cambridge, MA, 1997; and John Scholz,
Ananth Seshadri, and Surachai Khitatrakun,
Are Americans Saving Optimally for Retirement? Journal of Political Economy, Volume
114, 2006, 4.
CanarTi
cxrili 1
505
9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM
,
:
(-3 ),
, C=c0+c1Y
(
).
,
(C/Y ). , ,
.
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,

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).
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506
506
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 12
10
, , ,
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-
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,
. 1990-1991
- .
11 1990-1991
:
, . -5 ,
. , 2001 11
,
, 1990-1991
.
makroekonomika
9/27/2010 1:47:38 PM
M01_BL
47:38 PM
16 . 2
investicia
? -5
,
. -14
, . , , ,
,
. , , . , .
,
. , - ,
, -.
, - .
-
.
,
-, ;
,
-, . , , . .
investicia da mogebis molodinebi

, , , , - (
, -,
, ..).
amortizacia
, ,
-. .
Tavi 16
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
507
9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM
,
,
- ( ,
,
).
K
-
, K (1 )
-
..
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,
.
, - ( ) . -,
, (1 ) -, (1 ) 2 - .. . - .
- ? ,
-
. - , - 4- 15 2-
4 .
mosalodnel mogebaTa mimdinare dayvanili Rirebuleba
-,
.
.
, - (
), , -,
t ,
, t + 1 . - .
- t , - t + 1 ;
te+1 . t + 1 t :
1
te+1
1 + rt
. 16.1- ,
.
,
. - ,
-14 .
t + 2 - te+ 2
- . t + 2 -
(1 ) , -
(1 ) te+ 2 . t
508
508
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 12
10
makroekonomika
9/27/2010 1:47:38 PM
M01_BL
47:38 PM
1
(1 + rt )(1 + rte+1 )
(1 ) te+ 2
. 16.1- ,
.
mosalodneli mogeba:
t 1 wels
t 2. . .
mimdinare Rirebuleba
t wels
1
1
(1
1
rt) (1
e
t 1
rt
r et
1)
(1
e
t 1
e
t 2
(1
e
t 2
nax. 16 - 1
mosalodnel
mogebaTa mimdinare (dayvanili) Rirebulebis
gamoTvla
.
- t , V ( te ) -
:
V ( te ) =
1
1
(1 ) te+ 2 + ...
te+1 +
e
1 + rt
(1 + rt )(1 + rt +1 )
(16.3)

(- ) ..
sainvesticio gadawyvetileba
, -.
- .
, , -
..
1- . 1-
.
1- ,
-; ,
- .
1- , - .
-
.
Tavi 16
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
509
9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM
, I t - . - , , ( -, , ..) t -.

V ( te ) - , (16.3) .
,
:
I t = I [V ( te )]
(16.4)
( + )
1981
.
: ( ). ,
.
, , .
, , -15
,
, . (James Tobin)
, ,

.
.
mosaxerxebeli gansakuTrebuli SemTxveva

(16.4) , , ,
.
, , ( ), , ; :
te+1 = te+ 2 = ... = t
rte+1 = rte+ 2 = ... = rt
510
510
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 12
10
makroekonomika
9/27/2010 1:47:38 PM
M01_BL
47:38 PM
(, )
. , (16.3)
:
V ( te ) =
t
rt +
(16.5)
, , (.. )

( ).
V ( te ) - (16.4)

t
It = I
rt +
(16.6)
.

.
, , , , -,
, . ? - , , rt - ( , - 1- , rt 1- rt ): , , -
, , , . , ,
- , 1-, -
. :
.
,
= (rt + )
, , ,
-, (rt + ) - , .
, (16.6) ,
:
. ,
. , .
Tavi 16
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
511
9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM
CanarTi
investiciebi da safondo bazari
512
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 12
, 100 - 100 , 1 -. ,
2 1
. ,
,
- :
1 ,

2 , .

,

. ,
, ,
. ,
, ,

.
: ,
.
, - ;
, .
,
,
-
,
.
q q .
:
1. -
,

,
(
).

(
,
).
.
2. -
( -, ..
-).

.
q . ,
q, ,

(
, q ,
, ).
makroekonomika
9/27/2010 1:47:38 PM
M01_BL
47:38 PM
0.3
4
investiciebis
(azomilia marcxniv)
0.2
0.1
1
0
0.0
0.1
2
0.2
3
tobinis
q-s cvlileba
0.3
(azomilia marjvniv)
0.4
5
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
naxati 1 tobinis q-sa da investiciebis kapitalTan Sefardebis cvlilebis

wliuri mniSvnelobebi 1960-dan 1999 wlamde

q - ?
. 1-, 1960- 1999 -.
.

q- .
. , 1987
q- 1986 , ..
. ,

q-
.
Tavi 16
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
,

,
;
, ,
, ..
. 1 , q-

. , ,

,
,
,

.
CanarTi
investiciebis kapitalTan Sefardebis
tobinis q-s cvlileba, 1 wliT CamorCena
Tanafardobis cvlileba
513
9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM
investiciebisa da mogebis cvlileba aSS-Si

1960 wlidan
2.0
0.015
mogebis cvlileba
(marjvena skala)
0.010
1.5
1.0
0.005
0.5
0.000
0.0
0.005
0.5
0.010
1.0
investiciebis
cvlileba
(marcxena skala)
0.015
1.5
0.020
2.0
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
mogebis kapitalTan Tanafardobis

cvlileba (procentebSi)
nax. 16 - 2
investiciebis kapitalTan Tanafardobis

cvlileba
,
:
, . - , .
,
.
2005
wlebi
mimdinare mogeba mosalodnelis sapirispirod
1,
.
514
514
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 12
10
, , . , [
,
(16.3) ].
, ,
.
. 16.2-, -
1960
. ,
- .
, .
,
, , .
makroekonomika
9/27/2010 1:47:38 PM
M01_BL
47:38 PM
. 16.2- .
, ,
? .
, , , , .
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,
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.
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517
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.
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danarTi:
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gamoTvla statikuri molodinebis SemTxvevaSi
, (16.3) :
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1
1
(1 ) te+ 2 + ...
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,
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Tavi 16
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1 + x + x 2 +K .
-2 -2 ,
(1 + x + x 2 + K) =
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x (1 ) (1 + rt ), ,
:
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(16.A1)
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:
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t
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527
9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM
bligaciebisa da aqciebis fasze molodinebis zegavlena ganvixileT me-15

TavSi; me-16 TavSi gamovikvlieT molodinebis zegavlena samomxmareblo da sainvesticio gadawyvetilebebze. mocemul TavSi ki gavaerTianebT calkeul nawilebs da kidev erTxel ganvixilavT monetaruli da
fiskaluri politikis efeqtebs:
17.1 nawilSi naCvenebia mTavari Sedegebi, romelic aqamde SeviswavleT, kerZod ki is, rom momavali gamoSvebisa da momavali saprocento ganakveTebis
molodinebi gavlenas axdens mimdinare danaxarjebze da, maSasadame, mimdinare gamoSvebaze.
17.2 nawili ganixilavs monetarul politikas. naCvenebia, rom monetaruli

politikis efeqtebi mniSvnelovanwilad damokidebulia imaze, Tu rogor pasuxobs molodinebi politikas: monetaruli politika uSualod axdens gavlenas mxolod moklevadian saprocento ganakveTze: danaxarjebisa da gamoSvebis cvlileba damokidebulia imaze, Tu ra gavlenas axdens moklevadiani
saprocento ganakveTis cvlileba adamianebisa da firmebis momavali saprocento ganakveTebisa da momavali Semosavlis Sesaxeb molodinebze da am gziT
iribad zemoqmedebs maT gadawyvetilebebze.
17.3 nawili ubrundeba fiskalur politikas. aq naCvenebia, rom Cven mier saxelmZRvanelos ZiriTad nawilSi (birTvSi) ganxiluli martivi modelisagan gansxvavebiT, finansur SezRudvas, zogierT SemTxvevaSi, rogor SeuZlia
moaxdinos gamoSvebis zrda moklevadian periodSic ki. Txrobis centralur
sakiTxad kvlav rCeba is, Tu rogor pasuxobs molodinebi politikas.
Tavi 17
molodinebi,
gamoSveba da
politika
529
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1:47:35 PM
17 . 1
molodinebi da gadawyvetilebebi:
Sejameba
, , ,

IS - LM .
molodinebi, moxmareba da sainvesticio

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. ,
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530
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M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 12
10
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molodinebi da IS damokidebuleba
, . 17.1- , . .
, ,
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nax. 17 - 1
gadasaxadebis gadaxdis Semdeg

momavali Semosavlebi
momavali realuri saprocento
ganakveTebi
momavali realuri dividendebi
adamianiseuli
simdidre
araadamianiseuli
simdidre
gadasaxadebis gadaxdis Semdeg

momavali mogeba
ganakveTebi
moxmareba
aqciebi

ganakveTebi
momavali nominaluri saprocento
ganakveTebi
obligaciebi
gadasaxadebis
gadaxdis Semdeg
mogebis dayvanili
Rirebuleba
investicia
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Tavi 17
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5

,
.
molodinebi, gamoSveba da politika

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532
532
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10
(17.2)

.

.
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,
(17.2) , . 17.2 IS . , IS
, Y, , , r, ,
, . , IS , T
e
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A
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IS
mimdinare saprocento ganakveTi, r
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r e >0
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Y
YA
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>0
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Tavi 17
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, ; ,
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IS .
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Tavi 17
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.
,
(17.3) .
, . , . , IS- :
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17 . 2
monetaruli politika, molodinebi

da gamoSveba
IS L
M , -5 , , i , IS,
L
M . ,
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1.
.
2.
.
, LM
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536
536
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10
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moklevadiani nominaluri ganakveTidan mimdinare da

mosalodnel realur ganakveTebamde
-14 , , , :
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e
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Tavi 17
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-14
.
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537
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IS
IS - LM
IS .
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LM
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IS LM
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IS , (17.2) . LM

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LM
rA
YA
, IS LM (17.2)
(17.3) :
IS :
Y = A (Y , T , r , Y e , T e , r e )+ G
LM :
M
= YL (r )
P
(17.4)
(17.5)
IS LM . 17.3-.
, r , , Y . IS ,
:
,
.
. :
, . LM :
. , A , IS ,
LM .
davubrundeT monetarul politikas

,
, .
,
538
538
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10
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. . 17.4- LM , , LM - LM ( , , , , LM ). A-
B , . IS ,
: , , , , .
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; IS , IS - IS -
. C . ,
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Y e - r e - , IS
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.
nax. 17 - 4
IS
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C
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YA YB

, ,
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YC
Tavi 17
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540
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. 35 - .
, . .
, - . ,
.
17 . 3
deficitis Semcireba, molodinebi

da gamoSveba
,
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.
Tavi 17
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7.5 .

11.2 .
541
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racionaluri molodinebi
, ,

.
.
35 .
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1970- ,
- .
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542
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M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 10

( , ,
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- )
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(
1995
).
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.
,
, ,

.

,
,

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Tavi 17
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, ,

.
, , .
, 1970-
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. ( , -7 ,
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, IS (17.4) , L
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, , G ,
e
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, , Y , e
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s : IS , ,
.
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M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 12
10
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, ..
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, , (
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. ,
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,

. . 17.5- IS L
M
. , , IS :
K
Y .
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.
,

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,
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.
nax. 17 - 5
IS
LM
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r e <0
Y e>0
mimdinare gamoSvebaze
deficitis Semcirebis
zegavlena

,
.
mimdinare gamoSveba,Y
Tavi 17
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CanarTi
SeuZlia Tu ara biujetis deficitis

Semcirebas gamoSvebis zrdis gamowveva?
irlandia 1980-ian wlebSi
546
546
12
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 10
1980-
:
1. 1982
. 1981
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cxrili 1
fiskaluri da sxva makroekonomikuri indikatorebi, irlandia,

1981-1984 da 1986-1989 wlebi
1981
1982
1983
1984
1986
1987
1988
1989
13.0
13.4
11.4
9.5
10.7
8.6
4.5
1.8
2 gamoSvebis zrdis tempi (%)
3.3
2.3
0.2
4.4
0.4
4.7
5.2
5.8
3 umuSevrobis done (%)
9.5
11.0
13.5
15.0
17.1
16.9
16.3
15.1
(%-Si gankargvad SemosavalTan) 17.9
19.6
18.1
18.4
15.7
12.9
11.0
12.6
1 biujetis deficiti (%-Si

mTlian Sida produqtTan)
4 Sinameurneobis dazogvis norma
, . 1987-
1989
, 5
. 2
. ,

9
.
,

.
,

. ,
,
, .
Tavi 17
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,
-16
.
,
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. , 1981- 1984 (-4 ):
1983 ,

.
CanarTi
wyaro: OECD Economic Outlook , June 1998.
547
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.
1986-1989
. .
,
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. 1986 15,7
, 1989 12,6 -
.

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, : . , :
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548
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10
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.
1980- .
,
1990 6 . , . ,
1987 ,
,
, ( ),
,
. , 1987- 1989
, IS-LM
.
: , : Francesco Giavazzi and Marco Pagano, Can Severe Fiscal Contractions Be Expansionary? Tales of Two Small European Countries , NBER
Macroeconomics Annual, 1990, 75-110.
,
, : John Mcdermott and Robert Wescott, An Empirical
Analysis of Fiscal Adjustments, International
Monetary Fund working paper, June 1996.
,
, G,
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sakvanZo terminebi
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, 542
, 542
, 541

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, 549

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. IS ,
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.
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. 1982 1987

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2. 1990- , ,
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Tavi 17
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.
. ,
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6.
1992 , - 290
.
, . (Clinton) ,

.
.
- ?
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,
1993 , 20 131 .
. ? ?
1993 , . (Alan
Greenspan),
,
, (Hillary Clinton) .
. ?

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10
, ,
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. , . ,
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. ,

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, ? (:
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?)
. 2005 ,
(Ben Bernanke) ,

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,
).
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8.
2000 - ( )
.
.
. ,
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. IS LM , ,
. , IS LM ,

?
. . (G.W. Bush)
,
. 2001 . ,
.
, -
2002 2004
.
,
, , . ,
,
( ) .
prognozis
TariRi
dagegmili xuTwliani
deficiti (procentulad
xuTwlian mTlian Sida
produqtTan)
2002 wlis agvisto

2003 wlis ianvari
2003 wlis agvisto
2004 wlis ianvari
0.4
0.2
2.3
2.3
. (research.stlouisfed.org/
fred2/).
, 3-
5-
.
, ,
() .

?
() ?
, , . .
. . William C. Gale and Peter
R. Orszag, The Economic Effects of Long-term Fiscal
Descipline , Brookings Institution. December 17, 2002.
, 5 ()
(CBO)
1982
2002 .
, Prentice Hall- :
Tavi 17
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555
555
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Ria ekonomika
Tavi 18
-18
.
,
.

.

.

,
,

.
momdevno oTxi Tavi saxelmZRvanelos ZiriTadi nawilis (birTvis) meore mTavar

gafarToebas warmogvidgens. am TavebSi ganxilulia
ekonomikis gaxsnilobis
mniSvneloba - imis faqtebi,
rom ekonomikuri sistemebis umravlesoba danarCen
msofliosTan saqonliTa da
aqtivebiT vaWrobs.
Tavi 19
-19

.
,
. ,

. ,
.
557
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Tavi 20
Tavi 21
-20
.
,
IS LM .
,
,

. , ,

.
21-
.
,
.

.

,
, .
558
558
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qamde vgulisxmobdiT, rom ekonomika Caketili iyo - rac imas niSnavs, rom is ar urTierTqmedebda danarCen msofliosTan. Cven am gzas imitom davadeqiT, rom sakiTxebi
gagvemartivebina da sabaziso makroekonomikuri meqanizmebis Sesaxeb Tqveni intuicia
Camogveyalibebina. axla mzad varT SevarbiloT es daSveba. gaxsnilobis makroekonomikuri mniSvnelobebis gagebas mocemuli da momdevno sami Tavi emsaxureba.
gaxsnilobas sami sxvadasxva ganzomileba aqvs:
1.
saqonlis bazrebis gaxsniloba - momxmareblebisa da firmebis SesaZleblobaa, arCevani

adgilobriv da ucxour saqonels Soris gaakeTon. arc erT qveyanaSi es arCevani SezRudvebisagan srulad ar aris Tavisufali: im qveynebsac ki, romlebic Tavisufali vaWrobis
yvelaze erTgulni arian, ukidures SemTxvevaSi, garkveul ucxour saqonelze tarifebi
(gadasaxadebi importul saqonelze) da kvotebi (importirebuli saqonlis raodenobrivi
SezRudva) aqvT dawesebuli. amave dros, qveyanaTa umravlesobaSi saSualo tarifebi dabalia da kidev mcirdeba.
2.
finansuri bazrebis gaxsniloba - finansur investorebs SesaZlebloba aqvT, arCevani adgilobriv da ucxour aqtivebs Soris gaakeTon. bolo periodamde, msoflios iseT mdidar
qveynebsac ki, rogoricaa safrangeTi da italia, kapitalis nakadebze kontroli hqonda
dawesebuli, kerZod SezRudvebi ucxour aqtivebze, romlebic SeiZleba adgilobrivi rezidentebs hqonodaT da SezRudvebi adgilobriv aqtivebze, romlebic ucxoelebs SeiZleba
hqonodaT. es SezRudvebi swrafad qreba. Sedegad, msoflios finansuri bazrebi sul ufro
da ufro mWidrod integrirebuli xdeba.
3.
faqtorebis bazrebis gaxsniloba erTi mxriv, firmebis SesaZleblobaa, gaakeTon arCevani, Tu sad ganaTavson warmoeba, xolo, meore mxriv, momuSaveTa SesaZleblobaa, airCion
sad imuSaon. tendenciebi naTlad Cans. multinacionaluri kompaniebi qarxnebs sxvadasxva
qveyanaSi ageben da dabali danaxarjebidan sargeblis miRebis mizniT sawarmoebs mTel
msoflioSi aTavseben. aSS-s, kanadis da meqsikis mier xelmoweril CrdiloeT amerikis
Tavisufali vaWrobis SeTanxmebaze (NAFTA - North American Free Trade Agreement) debatebis didi
nawili yuradRebas amaxvilebda imaze, Tu rogor imoqmedebda es aSS-s firmebis meqsikaSi
gadatanaze. msgavsi SiSebi amJamad CineTis garSemo koncentrirdeba. dabalxelfasiani qveynebidan imigracia mniSvnelovani politikuri problemaa iseTi qveynebisaTvis, rogoricaa
Tavi 18
saqonlisa da
finansuri bazrebis
gaxsniloba
germania an aSS.
559
3
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mokle- da saSualovadian periodebSi, romelic mocemuli da momdevno sami Tavis

yuradRebis centrSia, faqtorebis bazrebis gaxsniloba ufro nakleb rols TamaSobs, vidre saqonlis an finansuri bazrebis gaxsniloba. maSasadame, faqtorebis
bazris gaxsnilobis ignorirebas movaxden da yuradRebas gaxsnilobis pirveli
ori ganzomilebis mniSvnelobaze gavamaxvileb.
18.1 nawili saqonlis bazris gaxsnilobas, adgilobriv da ucxour saqonels

Soris arCevanis determinantebsa da realuri gacvliTi kursis rols ganixilavs.
18.2 nawili finansur bazarze gaxsnilobas, adgilobriv da ucxour aqtivebs

Soris arCevanis determinantebs, aseve saprocento ganakveTebisa da gacvliTi
kursebis rols ganixilavs.
18.3 nawilSi mocemulia momdevno sami Tavis mimoxilva.
18 . 1 saqonlis bazrebis gaxsniloba

, ,
.

.
eqsporti da importi
. 18.1
1960 ( - -; - ). :
-3 : :

,
(,
).

,
(,
).
560
560
12
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- . , 1960-
5 ,
14 (11 17 ). , ( )
, 40 .
,
,
. :
1980- : 1986 3 -
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nax. 18 - 1
procentulad mTlian Sida produqtTan
17.50
importi/mTliani Sida produqti
15.00
aSS-is eqsportisa da
importis Tanafardoba mTlian Sida produqtTan 1960 wlidan
12.50
10.00
7.50
eqsporti/mTliani Sida produqti
5.00
1960 ,

.
2.50
0.00
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
1990- 1 .
1990-
2006 5,9 ,
.
, .

, ( )
14 , . ,
. , ,
.
, ,
. ,
, . , - 60 .
11
,
- - .
18.1 (OECD) .
Tavi 18 saqonlisa da finansuri bazrebis gaxsniloba
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
:
, .. : , , .
(OECD)
. 1.
561
9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM

.
, ? ( 43
).
.
, ,
. 54- () 92 ()
( 92
: , ?
, 1-
? .
? ).
, -
, , , ? .

. . : ,
. , - , 40- .
adgilobrivi da ucxour saqonels Soris arCevani

?
:
().
,
:
.

.
, .
:
. ,
,
.
: ,
. cxrili 18-1 eqsportis wili mTlian Sida produqtSi ekonomikuri TanamSromlobisa
da ganviTarebis organizaciis (OECD) qveynebSi, 2006 weli
qveyana
eqsportis wili (%)
qveyana
eqsportis wili (%)
aSS
11
Sveicaria
54
iaponia
18
avstria
62
30
niderlandebi
80
germania
48
belgia
92
: OECD Economic Outlook Database.
562
562
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10
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, ,
1- ?
,
: , , 1- .
. ,
.
, , 1 . , .
, 200 .
, , 1200
. , 1
200
.
, ,
1 . ? ,
(. 2). , ,
200 ,
$1000/$200=5- .
,
.

, - .
, ,

. 2005
243 !
CanarTi
SeiZleba eqsporti mTlian Sida produqts aWarbebdes?
, .
, .
.
. , .
,
.
nominaluri gacvliTi kursi

- :
. , -, , Tavi 18 saqonlisa da finansuri bazrebis gaxsniloba
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
563
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,
.
. , .
E:
,
(-
,
).

.

.
-20 .
564
564
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 12
10
,
, . 2007 0,50
. , 1 0,50 .
, ,
, .
2007 2,0 . , 1 2,0 .
; , .
:
, , E . - (-
) E
(, E 2007 0,50 ).

. , , :

. ,
.

. , ,
, E - .
,
: . ,
,
. , , , (
). ( ).
. 18.2 1970 . :
1970 , 1
0,41 . 2006 1 0,54
. , .
1980- , 10 makroekonomika
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nax. 18 - 2
0.90
0.84
nominaluri gacvliTi kursi dolarsa da

girvanqa sterlings
Soris 1970 wlidan
dolari gamoxatuli funtSi
0.78
0.72
,
,
,
1980- ..
0.66
0.60
0.54
0.48
0.42
0.36
1968
1972
1976
1980
1984
1988
1992
1996
2000
2004 2007
, 1981
0,42 1985 0,89 , 1988 0,54 . ,
1980- , .
,
, . . 18.2

. , , , ,
-. .
nominaluridan realur gacvliT kursamde

- - - ?
, - , Cadillac 2007 STS
,
Jaguar S ( ,
, ).
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
565
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, ,
.
, - ()
() , .
.
, ,
. :
:
, (,
- , -

)

. 40000 . 0,50 , ,
$40000 0,50 = 20000.

.
30000 .
,
-
20000/30000=0,66.
. ?
, - , .
, - , . ,
-
.
, -2 : ,
.
, P - - , P - ( , , ), E - - . . 18.3 ,
:
1. - P . , E - ( E ,
) - , EP -.
2. P . ,
, - , , - ( ) , :
=
566
566
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10
EP
P
(18.1)
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aSS saqonlis
fasi
dolarebSi: P
aSS saqonlis
fasi
funtebSi: EP
nax. 18 - 3
aSS saqonlis fasi
gamoxatuli gaerTianebuli
samefos saqonliT:
gaerTianebuli
samefos
saqonlis fasi
funtebSi: P *
EP/P *

. , / .
, /
. , : , , ,
, ,
, , ; -2 , 1- (100-) .
. , , : ,
- 10 , , - 10
, .
,
.
:
realuri gacvliTi
kursis ageba

.

.
. 18.4 - 1970 , (18.1) . , . 18.2 . 1- 2000 . ,

.
,
.

.
. 18.4- :
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
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nax. 18 - 4
, , - ,

,

1970
.
aSS saqoneli, gamoxatuli gaerTianebuli

samefos saqonliT
realuri da nominaluri gacvliTi kursebi aSS-sa da gaerTianebul samefos Soris 1970 wlidan
2.0
1.8
realuri gacvliTi
kursi,
1.6
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
nominaluri gacvliTi
kursi, E
0.6
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
,
, : 1970
, 1,66- ; 2006
0,87- .
,
( )
(- )? :
=E
P
P
1970 :
, E :
; , .
, P P . - ,
. ,
, - ,
.
, P P - , E - , -
, , .
, ,
, 1970 ( E ).
, ? .
, 568
568
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10
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, - (, P
, P , , P P )
. , 1970-
, ( ). , ,
.
. ,
. -20 .
, . 18.2-
, . :
, P P - ,
, E - , , . , , , ,
, - , ,
.
. ,
1980- .
?
?
( )..

, P P E
.
ormxrivi da mravalmxrivi gacvliTi kursebi

. - . - , .
18.2 -
. ,
.
:
. - 22 , 20 .
, - 29
25 . , , - 23
33 .
(bilateral) , - , , (multilateral) , -
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
,
.
569
9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM
-
:
- () .
- -
.
- .
1973 ,

1973 .
? , ,
: , -
- . , , - , , - .
. 18.5 , - 1973
. , , . , ; 1- 2000
.
, .
18.4- - . 1980- . - 1980- 40 ,
. ,
1980- , .
, , , , ,
, .
1990- ,
, , 1995- 2001 25 .
, ,
. , , .
cxrili 18-2
aSS-is eqsportisa da importis struqtura

qveynebis mixedviT, 2006
eqportis wili (%)
kanada
importis wili (%)
14
12
29
25
CineTi
13
iaponia
danarCeni azia*
14
11
sxva qveynebi
26
22
meqsika
evropis kavSiri
* ,
: Survey of Current Business, April 2007, F3.
570
570
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nax. 18 - 5
1.25
1.20
aSS-is mravalmxrivi
realuri
gacvliTi
kursi 1973 wlidan
indeqsi (2000:1 = 1.0)
1.15
1.10
- 1980-

1980-

. 1980-
..
1.05
1.00
0.95
0.90
0.85
0.80
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
18 . 2 finansuri bazrebis gaxsniloba

, , ,
, ..
, . , ,

(foreign exchange) ,
() . , 2005
1,9 , 90 , 1,7 .
- , 2005 3,3 ,
9 . , , , (
) , , - (
)
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
571
9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM

: 1,7 .
-
: 9 ( 0,5 ).
. 9 ,
(1,7 )
0,5 . , , . ,
, .
2001 . , , , ,
.
, .
. ,
, ,
, . ,
, . , , .
,
. .
sagadasaxdelo balansi
, , , ,
. 18.3 - 2006
.
. , .
mimdinare angariSi
. () :
572
572
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 12
10
,
.
,
. 2006 , 763
,
5,8 .
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.
, - - . 2006 - 620
, 629 . , -9
.
,
; ,
. 2006 -84
. ,
2006 , ,
.

. ,
; , .. , , - 2006 $763 $9 $84 = $856 .
, - 856 ,
6,4 .
cxrili 18-3
:

?

?
( ).
aSS-s sagadasaxdelo balansi, 2006 (mlrd aSS dolari)
mimdinare angariSi
eqsporti
1,437
importi
2,200
savaWro balansi (deficiti
763
) (1)
investiciebisgan miRebuli Semosavali
620
investiciebze gadaxdebi
629
9
investiciebisgan wminda Semosavali (2)
84
wminda transfertuli gzavnilebi (3)

mimdinare angariSis saldo (deficiti
) (1)
(2)
856
(3)
kapitalis angariSi
ucxoelebis mflobelobaSi arsebuli aSS-is aqtivebis zrda (4)
1,764
aSS-is mflobelobaSi arsebuli ucxouri aqtivebis zrda (5)
1,049
kapitalis angariSis saldo (deficiti
) (4) (5)
715
141
statistikuri cdomileba
wyaro: Survey of Current Business, April 2007. yvela ricxvi miliard dolarebSia mocemuli .
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
573
9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM
kapitalis angariSi
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M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 12
10
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, -2 : ( , ) ( )
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adgilobriv da ucxour aqtivebs Soris arCevani

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$1
weli
$(1
aSS obligaciiebi
$1
gaerTianebuli
samefos obligaciebi
Et
$Et (1
1
it )
i *t ) (1/Eet 1 )
Et (1
i *t )
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
nax. 18 - 6
aSS-is erTwliani obligaciebisa da gaerTianebuli
samefos
erTwliani obligaciebis flobidan mosalodneli ukugeba
575
9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM
CanarTi
mTliani Sida produqti mTlian erovnuli

produqtis sapirispirod: kuveitis magaliTi
, :
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?

:
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, .
, . (Gross domestic
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576
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 12
10
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,

. , . 1990-

.
,
, ,
,

. - 2006
30 , 0,2 (
. -

1 ).
.
(
.).
, .
, ,
. , Et
. 1 Et (
).
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9/27/2010 1:47:38 PM
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.
..
. , , (
)

.
,
.
10 .
cxrili 1
mTliani Sida produqti, mTliani erovnuli

produqti da wminda faqtoruli gadaxdebi
kuveiTSi 1989 1994 wlebSi
weli
mTliani
Sida
produqti
mTliani
erovnuli
produqti
wminda
faqtoruli
gadaxdebi
1989
7,143
9,616
2,473
1990
5,328
7,560
2,232
1991
3,131
4,669
1,538
1992
5,826
7,364
1,538
1993
7,231
8,386
1,151
1994
7,380
8,321
941
SeniSvna: yvela maCvenebeli mocemulia milion kuveitur

dinarSi. 1 dinari = 3,67 aSS dolari (2007 wlisaTvis)
wyaro: IMF International Financial Statistics.
.
e
, Et +1
, (1 Ete+1 ) . , Et (1 + it )(1 Ete+1 ) (
). , - . :
- - ;
/
.
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
CanarTi
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. 1
1989 1994
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10
.
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; , ,
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. (18.2)
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-20 .
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9/27/2010 1:47:38 PM
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47:38 PM
saprocento ganakveTebi da gacvliTi kursebi

, , . , Et Ete+1 1 (1 + ( Ete+1 Et ) Et ) .
(18.2) :
(1 + it ) =
(1 + it )
[1 + ( Ete+1 Et ) Et ]
(18.3)
, it , , it , , ( Ete+1 Et ) Et , .
, 20
:
it it
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, 3,0 , , , -,

- . Tavi 18 saqonlisa da finansuri bazrebis gaxsniloba
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
579
9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM
CanarTi
braziliuri obligaciebis yidva

1993 ,

, .
36,9 . - 3 , ,
0,2-
. ?
, : (
;
)
.
, , (18.3) ,

: 1-
1-
:
1 + it
[1 + ( Ete+1
Et ) Et ]
? , ,
580
580
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 12
10
. 1993 100 000 ,

134
600 , ,
(, ) 34,6 .
, ,
, :
1,369
= 1, 017
1,346

(1.017 1) = 1, 7%
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, - ( 0,2 ).
,
, , . , .
, ,
, .
, 3,0 ,
- .
: -
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9/27/2010 1:47:38 PM
M01_BL
47:38 PM
17.5
nax. 18 - 7
15.0
samTviani nominaluri saprocento ganakveTebi aSS-sa da gaerTianebul

samefoSi
1970 wlidan
procenti
12.5
saprocento ganakveTi
gaerTianebuli samefoSi
10.0
-
38
.
7.5
5.0
saprocento
ganakveTi aSS - Si
2.5
0.0
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
-
3 ,
3
, - , (
).

, (18.2) (18.4) , . ,
, , . ,
. ,
. , , . , ,
,
.

.
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
Ete+1 = Et ,
, it = it
.
581
9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM
The
Economist- ,
-
. ,
.

? . 18.7 - ( ) 1970 . ,
, . 1980-
, , , -.
1990-
. ,
: , 1990 7 , -. , .
18 . 3 daskvnebi da momavlis xedva

:
. , ,

.

. , ,
, , ,
.
-19 .
-20 . 21-

.
582
582
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 12
10
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47:38 PM
Sejameba

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,
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M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
583
583
9/27/2010 1:47:40 PM
9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM

, 570

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10
, 0,75-
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. 100 .
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9/27/2010 1:47:40 PM
9/27/2010 1:47:38 PM
M01
M01_BL
0 PM
47:38 PM

50 .
3. , () ,
($) -. ,
-
. , E, : 1 = 0,75 .

:
nominaluri Rirebuleba
aSS
germania
fasi
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10,000
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:
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5
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M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 16
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
585
585
9/27/2010 1:47:40 PM
9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM
,
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ca),
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.
. 1979 . ?
?
586
586
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 16
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 12
10
. (, ),
. ?
.
? ?
?
7. World Economic Outlook (WEO)
(www.imf.org).
Balances on
Current Account , . , ()-() .
. .
,
.
?

(.. , )?
.
?
. - .
?
. World Economic Outlook-
, ,
.
. () ()
?
8.
(www.imf.org) World Economic Outlook (WEO). -
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9/27/2010 1:47:40 PM
9/27/2010 1:47:38 PM
M01
M01_BL
0 PM
47:38 PM
).
.
. -
? ? (
,
).
Summary of Sources and Uses of World

Saving,
( ) .

, () ()
.
. ? (
, Prentice Hall- :
damatebiT wasakiTxi
,
: Paul Krugman and Maurice Obstfeld, International Economics,
Theory and Policy, 7th ed., Pearson Addison-Wesley,
New York, 2007.

, : www.oanda.com.
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 16
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
587
587
9/27/2010 1:47:40 PM
9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM
soflios mravali qveyana, am striqonebis weris dros, Sewuxebuli

iyo aSS-Si recesiis riskis gamo, magram ara aSS-is, aramed sakuTari,
Tavis gamo. maTTvis aSS-Si recesia ufro dabal eqsports, savaWro
poziciebis gauaresebasa da qveynis SigniT sust zrdas gulisxmobs.
gamarTlebuli iyo Tu ara maTi wuxili? amoZravebs Tu ara realurad sxva

ekonomikur sistemebs aSS-is ekonomika? SeuZlia Tu ara realurad aSS-is
recesias am procesSi sxva qveynebi CaiTrios? am kiTxvebze pasuxis gasacemad
saqonlis bazris me-3 TavSi warmodgenili ganmarteba unda gavafarTovoT da
mxedvelobaSi unda miviRoT saqonlis bazris gaxsniloba. es swored isaa, rasac
mocemul TavSi vakeTebT:
19.1 nawili Ria ekonomikaSi saqonlis bazarze wonasworobas gvixasiaTebs.
19.2 da 19.3 nawilebi adgilobrivi ekonomikis gamoSvebasa da savaWro balansze Sida da gare Sokebis zegavlenas gviCvenebs.
19.4 da 19.5 nawilebi gamoSvebasa da savaWro balansze realuri gaufasurebis zegavlenas ganixilavs.
19.6 nawili wonasworobis alternatiuli aRweraa, romelic danazogs, investiciebsa da savaWro balanss Soris mWidro kavSirs gviCvenebs.
Tavi 19
saqonlis bazari
Ria ekonomikaSi
589
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
3
9/27/2010 1:47:37
1:47:35 PM
19 . 1

,
:
;

.
IS damokidebuleba Ria ekonomikaSi
,
,
,
. . . , .
adgilobriv saqonelze moTxovna

:
Z C + I + G IM + X
(19.1)
: , C , , I ,
, G , . C + I + G .
, ( C + I + G )- ,
:
, ,
, .
: , , , IM , . ,
( ) ( ) .
. ,
(19.1) IM : -18 ,
, , , . , 1
. , IM (1 ) , , IM
.
-3 , IM
IM ,
;

.
, C + I + G ,
(), IM ,
(), X , ,
C + I + G IM + X , .
590
590
makroekonomika
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 12
10
,
, .
(19.1) X .
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47:38 PM
C, I da G determinantebi
, . , :
C, I G . , , ,
,
? : ,
. , C , . ,
, ,
, ,
. :
-
, .
, ,
,
, . ,
: C + I + G = C (Y T ) + I (Y , r ) + G
( + ) (+, )
, , Y T ;
, Y , , r .
, G , . , -14-17 , , .
- ;
.
importis determinantebi
, . ? : , . ,
. , .
, ,
,
Tavi 19
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
saqonlis bazari Ria ekonomikaSi
591
9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM
:
-
. : -

- .
, . ,
. ,
:
IM = IM (Y , )
( +, + )
(19.2)
, Y - (, ,

) . (19.2) Y - .
, , , IM , . (19.2) - (, , , IM , 1 ; , , - , IM -.
).
eqsportis determinantebi
, .
, . ?
: , . , . , : ,
.
, .
, Y - (,
) :
X = X (Y , )
( +, )
592
592
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 12
10
(19.3)
, Y - .
, - .
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komponentebis SeerTeba
. 19.1 , . , ,
( , , , ), .
. 19.1 ()-, DD ,
( C + I + G )-, , Y - . -3 .
, , 1- . (, ) ,
- (
, , ,
, . , , ).
, , . . 19.1 ()- AA
. DD AA , IM -
. ,
. AA ,
:
, - ,
IM , , IM ,
.
AA , DD : ,
, .
, , ,
.
, AA - : .
, . . 19.1
()- ZZ , , AA . . ZZ - AA -
. ( ), ZZ - AA - ,
. AA , DD , ZZ - , DD .
Tavi 19
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
593
9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM
. 19.1 ()- , ,
( X IM )
. , Y
AC , AB , , BC .
nax. 19 - 1
DD
adgilobrivi moTxovna
(C
G)
(a)
gamoSveba
DD
AA
moTxovna, Z
(): ()
.
() ():

.
(): .
moTxovna, Z
importi (IM/ )
(b)
gamoSveba
moTxovna, Z
DD
ZZ
AA
eqsporti (X )
B
A
(g)
YTB
wminda eqsporti, NX
gamoSveba
savaWro proficiti
BC
YTB
savaWro deficiti
NX
(d)
594
594
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 12
10
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. 19.1
()- NX . : , ,
, , . ,
, , 0- , YTB -
( TB ). YTB -
; YTB - .
19 . 2
wonasworuli gamoSveba da
savaWro balansi
,
:
Y =Z
, , Z - , :
Y = C (Y T ) + I (Y , r ) + G IM (Y , ) + X (Y , )
(19.4)
, , . . . 19.2
, .
. 19.2 ()- , (, ) . ZZ , ; , , . 19.1- ZZ ; ZZ , 1- .
ZZ 45- ,
, : A -, Y -.
. 19.2 () . 19.1 ()- , . , ,
Tavi 19
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
595
9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM
nax. 19 - 2
ZZ

moTxovna, Z
45
(a)
Y
gamoSveba, Y
wminda eqsporti, NX

.
,

.
YTB
savaWro deficiti
NX
(b)
gamoSveba,Y
, Y , , YTB , .
, BC . , , , , .
, .
19 . 3
adgilobrivi an ucxouri moTxovnis

zrda
? , ,
.
596
596
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 12
10
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adgilobrivi moTxovnis zrda

, , . ?
. 19.3-. ,
. 19.3 ()- ZZ . A , Y - . , . , ,
, .
, . 19.3 ()-, Y = YTB .
ZZ

() ,
;
,
.
nax. 19 - 3
moTxovna, Z

ZZ
G>0
A
45
(a)
wminda eqsporti, NX
gamoSveba, Y
B
YTB
savaWro deficiti
C
NX
(b)
gamoSveba, Y
, G ? G - ,
G ZZ - ZZ -
. A - A - , -
Tavi 19
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
597
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Y - Y - . ,
.
, , -3 . ,
:

,
,
.

:

.
598
598
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 12
10
. , . 19.3 ()- . ,
Y - Y - , BC - : , .

,
, . -3
, , (, Z , 1- ).
, , . 19.1-
, ZZ , , , DD . , .
, : ,
, . , ,
, . , ,
, .
.
,
. , .
. -18 ,
. ,
. , , , ,
, . - ,
, .
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47:38 PM
ucxouri moTxovnis zrda

, Y - .
, , G - ,
. , ,
Y - , - .
. 19.4
. . 19.4 ()- ZZ .
A , Y . , ,
, , . 19.4 ()-, Y - 0- .. Y = YTB .
saqonelze
adgilobrivi
moTxovna
DD
moTxovna, Z
X>0
ZZ
ZZ
C
A
adgilobriv saqonelze
moTxovna
45
(a)
Y
gamoSveba, Y
X>0
0
NX
YTB
NX
NX
(b)
gamoSveba, Y
, DD , , (C + I + G ) - . . 19.1- , DD ,
ZZ . DD - ,
, A , ZZ DD
A .
Tavi 19
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
D
Y
wminda eqsporti, NX
NX
nax. 19 - 4
DD . ZZ .

.
599
9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM
, Y - ( DD ;
).
, -
. ,
- , X
- :

. Y - ZZ
-
.
Y ,
,
,

Y -
.
DD - .

- X . ,
, , , ZZ - ZZ -, X - .
, X
. , , . 19.4
()- , , ,
, X NX - NX - .
. 19.4 ()- , Y , A
.
. , : ,
.
? , .
, , , , ? . , , , : , , ZZ
- ZZ - ; DD , , . , Y -, DC ,
DA . CA ,
, DD ZZ - , . , ,
.
kidev erTxel fiskaluri politikis Sesaxeb

:
600
600
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 12
10

( , ,
makroekonomika
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M01_BL
47:38 PM

..).
( )
.
, , .
, .
, . , , . ,
(OECD) 1990- , 2000- . , , .
,
. , , - , ,
. , , ,
, .
,
, . , .
: , . , ,
,
. , , ( ) (
) .
,
. ,
, . ,
. . ,
, -
Tavi 19
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
-5

- .
601
9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM
. ,
.
. ,
, .
? , , . ,
, ( ) (
). : , .
, ,
, .
, . , G 7
(, , , , ,
; " G " (group)), ,
; , . , , . :
602
602
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 12
10
, ,
. , . , , . ,
,
,
.
, .
, , ,
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,
. ,
, ,
,
, , . ,
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9/27/2010 1:47:38 PM
M01_BL
47:38 PM
,
.
. , ,
30 . 1970- ,
, . 1980- , , ,
, ,
. , , ,
. .
19 . 4
. ,
,
,

.
gaufasureba, savaWro balansi da

gamoSveba
, - , ,
( -20 ,
. , ).
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Tavi 19
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
P P -,
E - EP P
21- ,
.
,
,
.
603
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gaufasureba da savaWro balansi:

marSal-lerneris piroba
:
NX X IM
X IM (19.2) (19.3) :
NX = X (Y , ) IM (Y , )
:

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M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 12
10
makroekonomika
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M01_BL
47:38 PM
, .
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Tavi 19
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605
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, . 19.5 ()- A , Y .
, . 19.5 ()- BC .
, :
,
. , . 19.5 ()-
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ZZ
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,
.
NX>0
G<0
ZZ
adgilobriv saqonelze
moTxovna
45
(a)
wminda eqsporti, NX
Y
Y
gamoSveba, Y
NX>0
(b)
gamoSveba, Y
NX
NX
, . 19.5 ()- ZZ - ZZ - .
, A - A - ,
Y - Y - .
606
606
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10
makroekonomika
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M01_BL
47:38 PM
, , , ZZ ZZ
-. .
: , ,
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) .
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cxrili 19-1
gacvliTi kursis da fiskaluri

politikis kombinacia
dabali gamoSveba
maRali gamoSveba
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G?

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(

).
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Tavi 19
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
607
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J -
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,

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dro
0
608
608
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 12
10
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1.44
3.5
1.36
3.0
savaWro
balansi
(marjvena
skala)
1.28
2.5
1.20
2.0
1.12
1.5
1.04
0.96
1.0
realuri gacvliTi
kursi (marcxena
skala)
0.88
0.5
0.0
0.80
nax. 19 - 7
savaWro deficitis Tanafardoba mTlian Sida
produqtTan (procentebSi)
realuri gacvliTi kursi (2000 1.00)
, J - : , .

:
, 1980-1990
1980-

.
,
.
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1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990
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.
Tavi 19
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1985- 1988
,

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609
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, ,
,
(OECD)
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balansi
-3 , ,
.
,
.
:
Y = C + I + G IM + X
C + T ,
: S = Y C T . :
S = I + G T IM + X
NX X IM ,
:
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(19.5)
, , NX , ( , S , , T G )
. ,
;
610
610
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 12
10
makroekonomika
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M01_BL
47:38 PM
,
.

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Tavi 19
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611
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M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 12
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47:38 PM
cxrili 1
saSualo wliuri zrdis tempebi aSS-Si,

evrokavSirsa da iaponiaSi 1991 wlidan
(procentulad yovelwliurad)
aSS
2.5
4.1
3.4
evrokavSiri
2.1
2.6
1.6
iaponia
1.5
1.5
1.6
Tavi 19
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
. 2002
,
,

,
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, , 19.6
. .
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9
procentulad mTlian Sida produqtTan
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7
6
5
4
dazogva/mTliani
Sida produqti
3
2
1
naxati 1
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 12
investicia/ mTliani
Sida produqti
0
1995
614

- .
, . -
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, ,

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.

,
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1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
aSS-s wminda dazogva da investicia 1996 wlidan (procentulad mTlian da

Sida produqtTan)
makroekonomika
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M01_BL
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- .
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M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
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M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 16
12
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 10
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makroekonomika
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9/27/2010 1:47:38 PM
M01
M01_BL
0 PM
47:38 PM
. J -.

, , (
)
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Tavi 19
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2.

(
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( t t 1 ) ( Et Et 1 )
=
+ t t
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617
617
9/27/2010 1:47:40 PM
9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM
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618
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 16
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 12
10
7. ,
, :
C = c0 + c1 (Y T )
I = d 0 + d1Y
IM = m1Y
X = x1Y
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M01
M01_BL
0 PM
47:38 PM
m1 x1 , , -
. , 1- , , Y ,
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.
m1 ? .
. () () .
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8.
, . , , :
c = 10 + 0,8(Y T ), I = 10, G = 10 T = 10
Tavi 19
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, :
IM = 0,3Y X = 0,3Y
Y .
.
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9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM
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(www.gpoaccess.gov/eop/). B-2-,

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.
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,
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: 1981 1990 , 1990 2000 2000
. ()
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?
.
, ?
.
, Prentice Hall- :
damatebiT wasakiTxi
, ,

: Barry Bosworth, Saving and Investment in a Global Economy,
Brookings Institution. Washington, DC, 1993.
620
620
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 16
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 12
10
-
, : William
Cline, The United States as a Debtor Nation, Peterson Institute, Washington, DC, 2005.
makroekonomika
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9/27/2010 1:47:38 PM
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0 PM
47:38 PM
danarTi: marSal-lerneris pirobis miReba
NX X IM
, . , NX = 0 X = IM , ,
, X = IM . -

-
.
, ,
-:
NX = X IM
, .

:
( ) NX + (NX ). , ,
, NX = 0

(NX ) .
: ( ) X + (X ) (IM ).
:
(NX ) = ( ) X + (X ) (IM )
X -:
(NX ) ( ) X (X ) (IM )
=
+
X
X
X
X
, ,
,
X = IM .
Tavi 19
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
NX X IM
=
+
X
IM

( ) :
(
) . , .
( ) .
,
.
( ) .
, .
- , . , .
. , 1- 0,9
0,8
(
,
). 1% + 0,9% (0,8%) = 0, 7%.
,
- .
621
9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM
acvliTi kursi, rogorc politikis erT-erTi instrumenti, romelic

mTavrobis gankargulebaSia, ganvixileT me-19 TavSi. magram gacvliTi
kursi politikis instrumenti ar aris. ufro metic, is savaluto
bazarze ganisazRvreba - bazarze, sadac, rogorc me-18 TavSi naxeT,
didi vaWrobaa. es faqti or aSkara kiTxvas badebs: ra gansazRvravs
gacvliT kurss? rogor SeuZliaT politikis gamtareblebs masze zemoqmedeba?
am kiTxvebze pasuxis gacema aRniSnuli Tavis motivaciaa. ufro zogadad, vikvlevT
wonasworobis mniSvnelobebs rogorc saqonlis, ise finansur bazrebze, romelic
savaluto bazarsac moicavs. es saSualebas gvaZlevs davaxasiaToT gamoSvebis,
saprocento ganakveTis da gacvliTi kursis erToblivi dinamika Ria ekonomikaSi.
modeli, romlis ganviTarebas vaxdenT me-5 TavSi ganxiluli
modelis
gafarToebaa Ria ekonomikisaTvis da mandel-flemingis modelis saxeliTaa
cnobili. igi orma ekonomistma - robert mandelma (Robert Mundell) da markus
flemingma (Marcus Fleming) 1960-ian wlebSi Camoayalibes (modeli, romelic
aqaa warmodgenili, mandel-flemingis modelis originalur suliskveTebas
inarCunebs, magram detalebiT misgan gansxvavdeba).
20.1 nawili saqonlis bazarze wonasworobas ganixilavs.
20.2 nawili finansur bazrebze, m.S. savaluto bazrebze wonasworobas ganixilavs.
20.3 nawili wonasworobis or mdgomareobas aerTianebs da gamoSvebis, saprocento ganakveTisa da gacvliTi kursis determinantebs ganmartavs.
20.4 nawili moqnili gacvliTi kursis SemTxvevaSi politikis rols ganixilavs.
20.5 nawili fiqsirebuli gacvliTi kursis SemTxvevaSi politikis rols

ganixilavs.
Tavi 20
gamoSveba, saprocento
ganakveTi da gacvliTi
kursi
623
3 5
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1:47:35
1:47:37
PMPM
20 . 1
wonasworoba saqonlis bazarze
-19 , [(19.4) ]:
Y = C (Y T ) + I (Y , r ) + G IM (Y , ) + X (Y , )
(+ )
( IS ): = .
(+, )
(+,+)
(+, )
, (
) ( ) . , C , , I , ,
G , , IM , , X :
, C , , Y T .
, I , , Y ,
, r .
, G , , .
, IM ,
, Y , , .
.
, X , ,
Y , , .
, , , :
NX (Y , Y , ) X (Y , ) IM (Y , )
,
- . ,

-
( -19
).
,
, NX , , Y ,
, Y , , : , ,
. , .
.
, :
Y = C (Y T ) + I (Y , r ) + G + NX (Y , Y , )
( + )
(+, )
( , +, )
624
624
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10
(20.1)
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(20.1) ,
,
, , , :

. , , .

,
. ,
, .
(20.1)
:
IS LM
, () . . , , EP P, , E , , .
, - , ,
. ,
, -
.
P - P - ,
P P = 1 ( ,
), = E (20,1) E -.
,

. ,
,
r , (20.1) , i -
.
P = P = 1,
:
, = E .
: = 0 ,
, r = i .
, (21.1) :
Y = C (Y T ) + I (Y , i ) + G + NX (Y , Y , E )
( + )
(+, )
( , +, )
(20.2)
: , .
Tavi 20
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gamoSveba, saprocento ganakveTi da gacvliTi kursi
625
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20 . 2
: , ,

,
-15 .
wonasworoba finansur bazarze
IS LM , ,
,
. ,
,
. , - .
fuli Tu obligaciebi
-15 IS LM , , :
M
= YL(i )
P
-4
-
: -

.
: (1)
(2)
,
.

.
626
626
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 12
10
(20.3)
[(20.3) ] , . ,
[(20.3) ] , , Y ,

- , i -.
,
? : ,
.
, , . , ,
. . ,
, , , . , : ,

, .
, (20.3) .
.
makroekonomika
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. , ,
, .
. 1 ( LM ) :
=
.
arCevani adgilobriv da ucxour obligaciebs Soris

, , -18 : . ,
; ,
,
( , . ,
, ,
).
-18 [(18.2) ] ,
:
E
(1 + it ) = (1 + it ) et
E
t +1
it , it , Et Ete+1
. .
. .
e
Et +1 - ,
Et =
1 + it
1 + it
Ete+1
Et - ,
, ,
e
. Et +1 - ,
,
,
.
(20.4)
E e ( 21-
). :
E=
Tavi 20
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1+ i e
E
1 + i*
(20.5)
627
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, , :

.
.
.
. .
, , , ,
- . , - , 5 . ,
100- (1 100 )
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.
, ,
e
10 , E 110- . - , : - 5 .
5 ,
, , , 10 . , -5 : 5
( ) 10 ( ).
? 100-
, -
.
, ,
- . , . ? (20.5) :
E = (1, 05 / 1, 05)110 = 110.
,
. , 10
. 10 , , E = E e = 110,
628
628
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10
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M01_BL
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.
, -
, - 5- 8 .
, 5
100- . - ,
. - 8 . 5 , , , ,
5 .
, ? 100- - . ,
. ?
(20.5) : E = (1, 08 / 1, 05)100 103.
, , 3 . 3 ? , , . , , , , ,
( , ). 3 , 3 . ,
, ,
3 . , 8 : 5 ( )
3 ( ). , -
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, , , : ,
. ,
, , . 21-
, :
.
Tavi 20
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,
. ,
, 20 ?
629
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, i ? ,
E e ?
. 20.1 , i,
, E - , (20.5) .
, E e , , i ,
,
. (20.5) , , , ,
(i = i ),
( E = E e ) . , ,
, A .
samamulo saprocento ganakveTi, i
nax. 20 - 1
saprocento paritetis damokidebuleba
e
( mocemuli i*-isa da , E -Tvis)
i*
Ee
gacvliTi kursi, E
20 . 3
saqonlisa da finansuri bazrebis

gaerTianeba
, , .
, ,
:
Y = C (Y T ) + I (Y , i ) + G + NX (Y , Y , E )
, ,
:
630
630
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 12
10
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M
= YL(i )
P
:
E=
1+ i
1+ i
Ee
,
.
.
. IS LM
:
IS:
1+ i e
Y = C (Y T ) + I (Y , i ) + G + NX Y , Y ,
E
1 + i
LM :
M
= YL(i )
P
IS
.
:
, , , ,
.
, , :
. , , , , .
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1981
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1983
1984
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Tavi 20
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Tavi 20
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. (The Economist) (www.economist.com) 10 . Markets & Data Economic

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, ()

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.
, Prentice Hall- :
damatebiT wasakiTxi

(David Stockman) ,

(OMB Office of Management and Budget) , : The Triumph of Politics: Why the Reagan Revolution Failed, Harper &
Row, New York, 1986.
650
650
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10

(Daniel Gros)
(Niels Thygesen): European Monetary Integration: From the Europian Monetary System to Economic and Monetary Union, 2nd ed. Addison-Wesley-Longman, New York, 1998.
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danarTi: fiqsirebuli gacvliTi kursebi, saprocento ganakveTebi

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(,
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reton vudsSi 44 qveynis warmomadgeneli 1944 wlis ivlisSi, niu hemfSirSi Seikriba, raTa saerTaSoriso monetaruli da gacvliTi kursis
axali sistema Camoeyalibebina. sistema, romelic Seiqmna, yvela wevri
qveynisaTvis erTmaneTis mimarT fiqsirebul gacvliT kurss efuZneboda, garda aSS-isa, romelic am qveynebis valutebis fass dolarTan mimarTebaSi
adgenda. 1973 wels, gacvliTi kursis krizisebis seriam am sistemis rRveva gamoiwvia da daasrula is, rasac dReisaTvis breton vudsis periods uwodeben. amis
Semdeg msoflio ramdenime saxis gacvliTi kursiT xasiaTdeba. zogierT qveyanas
moqnili gacvliTi kursi gaaCnia, zogierTs fiqsirebuli, zogierTi ki am gacvliT kursebs Soris meryeobs. Tu romeli gacvliTi kursis reJimi unda iqnes
arCeuli, makroekonomikaSi erT-erTi mTavari sakamaTo Temaa da, karikaturac
migvaniSnebs, rom igi msoflios TiToeuli qveynis winaSe dgas.
Tavi 21
gacvliTi kursis
reJimebi
The New Yorker Collection 1971 Ed Fisher from cartoonbank.com. All Rights Reserved.
655
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1:47:35 PM
mocemul TavSi Semdegi problemebi ganixileba:
21.1 nawilSi ganxilulia saSualovadiani periodi. me-20 TavSi moklevadiani periodisaTvis miRebuli Sedegebisagan gansxvavebiT, is gviCvenebs,
rom ekonomika saSualovadian periodSi erTsa da imave realur gacvliT
kurssa da gamoSvebis moculobas aRwevs, imisgan damoukideblad, fiqsirebuli gacvliTi kursisa Tu moqnili gacvliTi kursis safuZvelze funqcionirebs. cxadia, es ar niSnavs, rom gacvliTi kursis reJimi umniSvneloa.
moklevadian periods Zalian didi mniSvneloba aqvs, magram es Cveni wina
analizis mniSvnelovani gafarToeba da dazustebaa.
21.2 nawili fiqsirebul gacvliT kurss sxva mxriv ganixilavs da yuradRebas gacvliTi kursis krizisze amaxvilebs. gacvliTi kursis ti puri krizisis ganmavlobaSi, qveynebi, romlebic fiqsirebuli gacvliTi kursis safuZvelze funqcionireben, dramatul situaciebSi xSirad iZulebulni arian, uari Tqvan paritetze da devalvacia ganaxorcielon. aseTi krizisebi
breton vudsis sistemis daSlis mizezi iyo. 1990-iani wlebis dasawyisSi am
krizisebma evropuli monetaruli sistema Seaeryia da 1990-iani wlebis bolos aziuri krizisis mTavari elementic swored is iyo. mniSvnelovania
gavigoT, Tu ratom warmoiqmneba es krizisebi da ras gulisxmobs is.
21.3 nawili moqnil gacvliT kursebs sxvagvarad ganixilavs da yuradRebas

moqnili gacvliTi kursis pirobebSi maT qcevaze amaxvilebs. is gviCvenebs,
rom gacvliTi kursebis qceva da misi monetarul politikaze damokidebuleba ufro rTulia, vidre me-20 TavSi ganvixileT. gacvliTi kursis didi
ryevebi da masze zemoqmedebisaTvis monetaruli politikis gamoyenebis
sirTule, moqnil gacvliT kurss nakleb mimzidvelad xdis, vidre es me-20
TavSi Canda.
21.4 nawili yvela am daskvnas aerTianebs da moqnili da fiqsirebuli kursebis SemTxvevebs ganixilavs. aq ganxilulia bolodroindeli ori mniSvnelovani movlena: evropaSi erTiani valutisken swrafva da fiqsirebuli
gacvliTi kursis Zlieri formis reJimebze gadasvla, savaluto sabWodan
dolarizaciamde.
21 . 1 saSualovadiani periodi
-20 ,
:
656
656
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10
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gacvliTi kursis reJimebi
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657
9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM
erToblivi moTxovna fiqsirebuli

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M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
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M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
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M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
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M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
671
9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM
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M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
673
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M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
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: , : Paul
Blustein, End the Money Kept Rolling In (and Out). Wall
Street, the IMF, and the Bankrupting of Arhentina, New
York, Public Affairs, 2005.
Tavi 21
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
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9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM

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9/27/2010 1:47:40 PM
9/27/2010 1:47:38 PM
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M01_BL
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M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 16
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9/27/2010 1:47:38 PM
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47:38 PM
EP
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9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM
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, ,

.
(1 + rt ) =
(1 + it ) =
(1 + it* )
Et (1 + te )
Ete+1 (1 + te )
(1 + rt )
Et Pt+e1 Pt
(1 + rt ) =
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 12
10
Et Pt Pt
Ete+1 Pte+1 Pt+e1
Et Pt Pt
Ete+1 Pte+1 Pt+e1
t
te+1
(21.A1) :
(1 + rt ) = (1 + rt )
(1 + te )
(1 + it )
(1 + te )
Ete+1 Pt Pte+1
(1 + it )
te ( Pt+e1 Pt ) Pt
.
, .
:
690
690
Ete+1 Pt Pte+1
Ete+1
te ( Pte+1 Pt ) Pt . :
Et Pt+e1 Pt
Et
-14 , (14.3) :
(21.A1)
, (1 + te ) = Pte+1 Pt (1 + te ) = Pt+e1 Pt .
(21.
A1)- :
, (18.2) :
Et (1 + te )
e
e
Et +1 (1 + t )
(1 + rt )
t
te+1
t =
1 + rt
1 + rt
te+1
(21.A2)

. (21.4)
, ,
.
makroekonomika
9/27/2010 1:47:38 PM
M01_BL
47:38 PM
(21.A2)
, (21.4) . (21.A2) , t + 1
, :
t +1 =
1 + rt +1
1 + rt+1
te+ 2
,
t t + 1 , :
te+1
1 + rte+1
1 + rt+e1
te+ 2
te+1 - (21.A2) -.
:
t =
(1 + rt )(1 + rte+1 )
te+ 2
e
(1 + rt )(1 + rt +1 )
te+ 2 - .., :
t =
(1 + rt )(1 + rte+1 )L (1 + rte+ n )
te+ n +1
e
e
(1 + rt )(1 + rt +1 )L (1 + rt + n )
Tavi 21
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5

, ,
t + n + 1

.

(21.5)
, , , ,
. ,
,
,
,
e
t + n +1 . Et + n +1 - ,
:
, ,
n .
691
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zogjer (makroekonomikaSi) saqme Zalian cudad

midis: gamoSvebaSi adgili
aqvs mkveTr vardnas.
umuSevrobis done xangrZlivi periodis ganmavlobaSi
maRalia, an inflacia Zalian
maRal donemde izrdeba. es
paTologiebi momdevno ori
Tavis yuradRebis centrSia.
Tavi 22
Tavi 23
22-
,
,
,
.

, ,
. , , , , ,
. ,
1990- , , ,
- . ,
, , 1990- .
23- , 1920-
, 1980-
. ,
.
,
. ,
.
gafarToeba
paTologiebi
693
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depresiebi da
mkveTri vardna
wignis mTavari Tema aqamde iyo is, rom moklevadian periodSi

ekonomikuri sistemebi ryevebs ganicdis, saSualovadian periodSi
ki normalur mdgomareobas ubrundeba. uaryofiT Soks SeuZlia
recesiis gamowveva, magram ekonomika sakmaod swrafad aRwevs mas
Tavs da gamoSveba Tavis bunebriv moculobas ubrundeba.
xSirad swored ase xdeba. magram, drodadro movlenebi araswori mimarTulebiT icvleba. gamoSveba, Tavis bunebriv moculobasTan SedarebiT, mravali
wlis ganmavlobaSi Zalian dabla eSveba. umuSevroba jiutad maRali rCeba. martivad rom vTqvaT, ekonomika TiTqos erT adgilze muxruWdeba da uunaroa
normalur mdgomareobas daubrundes. yvelaze samarcxvino SemTxveva, rasakvirvelia, didi depresiaa, romelic msoflios did nawilSi 1920-iani wlebis
bolodan II msoflio omis dawyebamde iyo (miuxedavad imisa, rom ar arsebobs
Tanxmoba gansazRvrebaSi, Rrma da xangrZlivi recesiis aRwerisas ekonomistebi
sargebloben terminiT depresia). yvelaze bolo SemTxvevaa iaponiis ekonomikis mkveTri vardna, romelic 1990-iani wlebis dasawyisSi daiwyo da, saidanac
iaponia nel-nela gamodis. (radgan ar arsebobs SeTanxmebuli gansazRvreba, dabali zrdis an stagnaciis periodis ganxilvisas, romelic ufro grZelia, vidre
Cveulebrivi recesia, magram naklebad Rrma, vidre depresia, ekonomistTa umravlesoba sargeblobs terminiT mkveTri vardna (slump).
msgavsi epizodebis arsebobisas ra uCveulo (ucnaur) movlenebs aqvs adgili?
Sokebi gansakuTrebiT cudia? mwyobridan gamodis SesabamisobaSi moyvanis Cveulebrivi meqanizmi? an, iqneb, makroekonomikuri politikaa gansakuTrebulad
mcdari? es is sakiTxebia, romlebsac mocemul TavSi ganvixilavT:
am
22.1 nawilSi ganxilulia rogorc didi depresiis, ise iaponiis ekonomikis

mkveTri vardnis ori centraluri meqanizmi: deflaciis uaryofiTi zemoqmedeba da likvidurobis xafangi.
22.2 nawilSi daxasiaTebulia didi depresia.
22.3 nawilSi daxasiaTebulia iaponiis mkveTri vardnis epizodi.
695
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3
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1:47:35 PM
22 . 1
dezinflacia, deflacia da
likvidurobis xafangi
, ,

. . 22.1- IS LM ,
,
.
, -7 , :
,
,
.
-6 .
, , A , Y ,
, Yn - .
:
. , , .
. , .
LM , . , , , B Y - .
,
LM .
IS , C ,
Yn - .
: ,
, ,
.
-7
.
, , ,
, .
-8 -9 , .
696
696
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 12
10
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47:38 PM
nax. 22 - 1
LM
(M/P ) > 0
LM
LM
A
i
B
IS
Y
Yn
gamoSveba, Y
. , -7 :

. :
, 22.1 , , , ,
, .

. ,
, (
) .

. LM
.
,
LM . ,
.

.
. LM

,
.
[(8.10) ]:
u > un t < t 1.
, , :

.
, , .
.
Tavi 22
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
depresiebi da mkveTri vardna
697
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, ,
, .
:
.
nominaluri saprocento ganakveTi, realuri saprocento

ganakveTi da mosalodneli inflacia
. 22.1- ,

. , . -14 :
, r , i e
. , (14.4)
,
r = i e .

. LM .
, , IS .
, , LM 1.

: .
. 22.2- . , A ,
.
, . :
LM LM
- LM - . LM
M P - 22.1-. LM
. , A - B
.
: , .
1 , .
, , . ,
x
x , ,
, .
x , ,
x ( )
. ( )
698
698
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10
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9/27/2010 1:47:38 PM
M01_BL
47:38 PM
nax. 22 - 2
LM
(M/P ) > 0
LM
<0
A
i
B
B
B
IS
Y Y
IS
Yn
gamoSveba, Y
, .
, ,
. ,
, , ,
e
. IS , IS - IS - . -
IS
. ,
A - B - .
?
: . A - B ,
Y - . Y Y - , Y , .
, Y , Y .
, , , : , , .
,
:

,
: (1) ,
LM
(2) , IS
.
.

, IS
.
, , , 5 . ,
, 7
, 7% 5% = 2%.
Tavi 22
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699
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-9 , ,
,

. , , ,

, ,

.
, , , 5- 3 .
5% 3% = 2%. , 2 . ,
, , 7- 6 . , :

.
, ,
2
, , 5- 3
. , , ,
2 . :
,
.
:
7- 6 , 5- 3 . ,
7% 5% = 2% - 6% 3% = 3% - .
.
- , . ,
, , , .
Y - Y - , , . ,
.. ,
, , ,
. , , , .
likvidurobis xafangi
- , - ,
: , , .
,
, . , ,
, 700
700
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 12
10
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47:38 PM
. . 22.2-
, LM , .
. ,
: .
, , (
), ,
. . , .
, -4 .
,
.
, , , . -4 , ,
. :
,
. , ,
, . , , . 22.3 :
. 4.1-. ,
,

.
,
, (, ) , .
, , , ,
, OB : , . , ,
(, ,
), . ,
B .
, M S - .
, , , i - (
, -4 ).
. 22.3- M S
.
Tavi 22
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701
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, M S - , B ; , M S - , C . ,
nax. 22 - 3

,

.

. ,

,

.
-4 :
,
.
702
702
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 12
10
Md
MS
MS
MS
fuli, M

. :
, .
, . , ,
. , , . , , .
: , . , , ,
:

( ) .
,
IS LM , , .
LM . 22.4- . ,
LM
. LM makroekonomika
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47:38 PM
, . 22.4 ()
,
:
M d Y . A i . . 22.4 ()- Y i
M d (for Y < Y )
M d (roca Y < Y )
M d ( Y-isTvis )
MS
nax. 22 - 4
nominaluri saprocento ganakveTi,i
LM mrudi
A
Y
Semosavali, Y
(realuri) fuli, M/P

(a)
M/P
LM

(b)
LM
A .
M d Y ( Y < Y ) . , ()
, , . , A , i - . . 22.4 ()- Y i
LM
A .
M d , Y ( Y < Y )
. , . 22.4 ()- A ,
. . 22.4 ()- A . 22.4 ()- A
.
Tavi 22
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5

LM

.

LM
:

.
, LM ,
-5 .
Y -
,
.
703
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, , Y - . 22.4 ()- ?
. A , .
: , LM
LM , . 22.4 ()- . , Y - , , ,
-5 , LM . , Y - , LM
i = 0 . , .
LM
, IS LM
. , . 22.5- IS LM A , Y
i . , , Yn -
. : ,
, Yn ?
nax. 22 - 5

.

.
IS
i
nomin aluri saprocent o ganakveTi,
IS LM
LM
LM
LM
A
i
B
Y Y
Yn
g amo Sveba, Y
, , LM
LM - LM - . A - B . i - Y - Y - . , Y

.
704
704
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10
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47:38 PM
, , B , LM LM -,
, LM - ? IS LM B , Y - .
, ; , , Yn .
: , :
, .. , ,
: , , ,
, . ,
, .
gaerTianeba: likvidurobis xafangi da deflacia

, , , , , , , :
,
.
?
. . . ,
, :
, , , , 10 . , ,
10 . ,
, , , ,
. , , , .
, , , , . ,
, , 5 (, 5 ).
, Tavi 22
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
r = i e = 0%
10% = 10%.
16
. , ,
, , -10 %-
? (:

?).
705
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5 .
, ,
,
,
.
r = i =
= 0% ( 5%) = 5%.
e

, -
nax. 22 - 6

,
.
,

,
,

IS .

,
..
LM
<0
A
Y Yn
gamoSveba, Y
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 12
10
IS
706
706
IS
, , , .
, . , ,
.
, . 22.6- IS LM
A ,
, Y , Yn - .
, ,
. , , :
, , , .
,
makroekonomika
9/27/2010 1:47:38 PM
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47:38 PM
; . 22.6- IS IS-, ,
IS - , Y - Y -
. ,
..
: :
.
, .
, , , , ,
, .
22 . 2
didi depresia
1929 - 3,2 . 1933

24,9 ! . , 1942 , 4,7
(. 22.7 1920- 1950 ).
22.1 ,
- , ,
1929 - 1942 .
30
nax. 22 - 7
- 1920- 1950
25
20
,
.
15
10
0
1920 1922 1924 1926 1928 1930 1932 1934 1936 1938 1940 1942 1944 1946 1948 1950
Tavi 22
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707
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. :
. 1929- 1932
: 8,6 ,
20 (3,2- 24,9 )
.
cxrili 22-1
weli
aSS-is umuSevroba, gamoSvebis zrda,fasebi da fuli, 1929 -1942 wlebSi
umuSevrobis
done (%)
1929
3.2
gamoSvebis zrdis
tempi (%)
fasebis
done
nominaluri
fulis maragi
9.8
100.0
26.6
1930
8.7
7.6
97.4
25.7
1931
15.9
14.7
88.8
24.1
1932
23.6
1.8
79.7
21.1
1933
24.9
9.1
75.6
19.9
1934
21.7
9.9
78.1
21.9
1935
20.1
13.9
80.1
25.9
1936
16.9
5.3
80.9
29.5
1937
14.3
5.0
83.8
30.9
1938
19.0
8.6
82.2
30.5
1939
17.2
8.5
81.0
34.1
1940
14.6
16.1
81.8
39.6
1941
9.9
12.9
85.9
46.5
1942
4.7
13.2
95.1
55.3
: 1929 , , . .
: Historical Statistics of the United States, U.S. Department of Commerce.
, ? 1933 . ,
1941 , - II ,
9,9 .
?
? ? ,
.
708
708
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10
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47:38 PM
danaxarjebis Tavdapirveli vardna

, 1929
. ,
. , , ,
.
, . 1921- 1929
. , , , - (
) 1921 6,5 1929
3,5 . 1929 28 298- 260- . , , 230- . 23-
, 40- . ,198- . 1930
,

. 1932 , 47- (
1920 1950 .
22.8-).
nax. 22 - 8
320
S&P- ,
1920-1950
280
indeqsi
240
1929
1932 ,
313- 47- ,

.
200
160
120
80
40
1920 1922 1924 1926 1928 1930 1932 1934 1936 1938 1940 1942 1944 1946 1948 1950
Tavi 22
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709
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, ,
15.3 .
1929
, ?
. , , . , , ,
. .
, ,
.
, ,

. , , , .
, 1929 1,8 , 9,8 ,
1929 1930 24
.
nominaluri fulis Semcireba
, M1
,
.
, . 22.2-
, M1 . 1929- 1933 , M1
26,6 19,2 , 27 .
, ,
,
, -4 . , ,
, , M1- ( ), , H - (
), :
M 1 = H
, ,
, , .
710
710
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10
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, 1929- 1933 , , H ( 22.2- ), 7,1 8,2 . , M1- , ,

M 1 H - ( 22.2- ) , 1929 3,7- 1933 2,4- .
? :
. ,
,
,
. 1929
1933 , , , , 20000 ,
4000- .
cxrili 22-2
weli

: Milton
Friedman and Anna Schwartz, A
Monetary History of the United
States, 1867-1960, Princeton University Press. Princeton, NJ, 1963.
fuli, nominaluri da realuri, 1929-1933 wlebi
nominaluri fulis
maragi M 1
monetaruli fulis multipli- realuri fulis

baza, H
katori, M 1 /H
maragi, M 1 /P
1929
26.6
7.1
3.7
26.4
1930
25.7
6.9
3.7
26.0
1931
24.1
7.3
3.3
26.5
1932
21.1
7.8
2.7
25.8
1933
19.4
8.2
2.4
25.6
:
. ,
: ,
, . , , . :
, 1-
. ,
. , M1 , H -, .
1929
3,7- 1933 2,4- , , , .
Tavi 22
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-4 : 1/ [c + (1 c)] ,
c
,
, .
c,
. c = 1, ,

,
,
1- .
711
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: 1929- 1993 , M1- , , ,

, M 1 P ( 22.2- ) . , . , LM ,
, ,
,
.
, ,
:
, , , .
deflaciis arasasurveli efeqtebi

,
, 22.1 ,
.
22.3- ,

. ,

1929 5,3 (1928 4,1
), 1933
2,6 .
, 22.3- , . , ..
, 1931 9,2 , 1932
10,8 . , , , . 22.3- ,
1933 . 1931 12,3 , 1932 14,8 ,
1933 , 7,8 .
, ,
.
712
712
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cxrili 22-3
weli
nominaluri saprocento ganakveTi, inflacia da realuri

saprocento ganakveTi, 1929-1933 wlebi
wliuri nominaluri
u inflaciis
l a n i mwlio
i urri sau
urinreal
proitempi (%),
saprocento ganakveTi (%), i
cento ganakveTi (%), r
1929
5.3
0.0
5.3
1930
4.4
2.5
6.9
1931
3.1
9.2
12.3
1932
4.0
10.8
14.8
1933
2.6
5.2
7.8
aRmavloba
1933 . 1937
( 22.1), , 1933- 1941
7,7 . ,
, , .
- , , . 1932
, (Franklin Roosevelt)
,
. 1933- 1941 , 140 ,
100 .
. (Christina
Romer), ,
, 1933 , 1937 25 , 1942 50
, .

, ,
, , .

(New Deal) , ,
.
, , -
Tavi 22
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Christina Romer, What ended

the Great Depression? Journal of Economic History, December 1992, 757-784.
713
9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM
(FDIC Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation) .

. , 1933
, .
, , ,
(NRA National Recovery Administration) . , , ,
.
, , , , , , 1933 , ,
. ,
. , 1933 , ,
, , .
() (puzzle). 1933
. ,
.
1940 81,8 , 1933 75,6- . , , .
, 1929-
1993 .
, 1933 :
1932
, , , , . .
, - (Samuelson) (Solow) (. 8.1), 1933- 1939
. ?
714
714
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 12
10
- ,
. (NIRA National Industrial Recovery Act), 1933 ,
, . ,
, ,
. ,
-
makroekonomika
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47:38 PM
. , .
, , , . , ,
, .
, ,
, ,
. , ,
, .
, , ,

. 100 ,
. ,
, . 1933 , , 30
. ,
,
, .
,
, 1933
.
, ,

.
, - 1933 ? , , , .
, ,
, - ,
.
22 . 3
iaponuri mkveTri vardna
II 1990- , : 1950- 1973 ,

7,4 .
(OECD)
, 1973 . 1973-1991
, 4 ,
.
, (
Tavi 22
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715
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? -10
.
(PPP) ), 1950 - 22 , 1990 - 84 .

1990- . .
22.9 1990 . 1992 2002 , 1 , , .
. , ( 22.1-,
- 1929- 1932 -8,6 ), . :
1992- 2002 , 1973-1991 , 2002 , , 30 .
nax. 22 - 9
5.4
:
1990 ()
: 2007 2007

.
3.6
mTliani Sida produqtis zrda

procenti
1992- 2002 ,
1 .
4.5
2.7
1.8
0.9
saSualo zrda
0.0
0.9
1.8
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2003 . ,
1933 - , , .
, ,
.
. 22.10 1990 ( ) .
, , , . , 1990 2,1 2002 5,4
716
716
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, 4 .
, 5,4 , - 40
,
.
: 5- . , , -10 : . ,
. ,
. ,
.
, .
nax. 22 - 10
5.4
1990 ()
4.5
procenti
3.6
. .
umuSevrobis done
2.7
1.8
: 2007
2007
.
inflaciis tempi
0.9
0.0
0.9
1.8
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
, . ( ) . 1995
, , ,
.
22.4- :
? ? -
Tavi 22
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717
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, ?
? , .
cxrili 22-4
weli
mTliani Sida produqtis, moxmarebis da investiciebis zrda

iaponiaSi 1988-1993 wlebSi
mTliani Sida produqti (%)
moxmareba (%)
investicia (%)
1988
6.5
5.1
15.5
1989
5.3
4.7
15.0
1990
5.2
4.6
10.1
1991
3.4
2.9
4.3
1992
1.0
2.6
7.1
1993
0.2
1.4
10.3
: , .
: OECD Economic Outlook.
nikeis aRmavloba da vardna

1980- : (Nikkei), , 1980
7000- 1989 35000-, 5-
. , 1992 , , 16000- . 1990- 2003 , 7000- .
2007
15000- , .
1980-
1990-
? -15 ,
:
-15 ,

,
.
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M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 12
10
, ,
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.
.
, , , .
. 22.11 1980 ,
. () ,
makroekonomika
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47:38 PM
aqciebis kursi da dividendebis indeqsebi
. , 1-
1980 .
:
6.4
nax. 22 - 11
5.6
1980
4.8
aqciebis kursis indeqsi

4.0

1980-
3.2
2.4
1.6
dividendebis indeqsi
0.8
1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006
, 1980- , . , : , , ,
. ,

.
, , ,
, . 22.4
, 1988 1993 . ,
, . ,
, .
, ,
-
Tavi 22
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
719
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-16 -17 .
(1988 6,5 0,2

1993 ) .
, ,
.
, . , ,
. ? , ?
, .
monetaruli da fiskaluri politikis marcxi

, . , , 22.1 .
. 22.12 1990 ( , , , ).
nax. 22 - 12

1990- :

.

.
7
yovelwliuri procenti
1990
nominaluri saprocento ganakveTi
realuri
saprocento
ganakveTi
0
1990
720
720
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 12
10
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
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1990 , , 8 . , , ,
( , BoJ (Bank of
Japan)), ,
. 2- , 6- .
, . , 1996 , 1 ,
, . , ,
. 1990-
. . ,
, , ,
.
, , . . 22.13 , 1990 :
, , 2003 8 . -
nax. 22 - 13
40.0

(
) 1990 .
37.5
procenti
,

.
1990-
,

.
danaxarjebi
35.0
32.5
Semosavlebi
30.0
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
Tavi 22
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
2000
2002
2004
2006
721
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, , , ,

,
.
1- ,
90-

,
0,9 .
6- ,

5,4 ,
.
, , .

, . , , , , ,
.
? , ,
, , . ,
. ? ,
.
.
1991 13,0%- 2006 90 .

. , , .
, ,
, .
iaponiis aRmavloba
2003 ,
. : ? , .
monetaruli politikis reJimis cvlileba

. ,
. .
.
, , ,
, ,
, , , .
722
722
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 12
10
makroekonomika
9/27/2010 1:47:38 PM
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47:38 PM
: ,
, ,
.
, , .
,
, .
, 1990- ,
. ,
; ,
. 2003
, . , , . , 1933 -,
,
, , . , , ,
.
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.
-9

. :

,
,

.
sabanko sistemis wmenda

1990- , . ,
, , ( ,
). , .
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,
, .
, : ,
, . , Tavi 22
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
723
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CanarTi
iaponiis sabanko problema
724
724
12
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 10
- ,
1990-
, .
:
, 1980-
, .

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) . , - , ,
,

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:
. , 1990-
. , , .1- :
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.
50
.
$100 $50 = $50.
( ,
-4 . , . , -4 ; .
, -4 , , ,
. ,
, ,
).
aqtivebi
sesxi: $100
nax. 1
valdebulebebi
depozitebi: $50
sakuTari
kapitali: $50
bankis balansi
, : , , . ?
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9/27/2010 1:47:38 PM
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:
.
50 ,
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50 .
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Tavi 22
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
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725
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, .
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, .
,
, .
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726
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 16
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 12
10
.
,
,
. ,
.

makroekonomika
9/27/2010 1:47:40 PM
9/27/2010 1:47:38 PM
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M01_BL
0 PM
47:38 PM
,
.
,
. , , .

.

, , .
, , .. .
- :
1929
3,2 1933 24,9 .

, 1929
.
1929- 1933
.

.

.
, .
1933 .
1933- 1941 , , , 7,7 . , 1941
9,9 .

, 1934 ,
Tavi 22
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 16
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
, .
. , , ,
.
, 1992 .
.
1980-

, , , .
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.
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XXX

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727
9/27/2010 1:47:40 PM
9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM
sakvanZo terminebi
, 695
, 695
, 702
, 713
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714

(NIRA), 714

1. , ,
. :
. 1929 , , .
. ,
, , .
. ,

.
. 1990- 2000-
1980-
.
. ,
,
.
2.
. , . ,
? IS LM .
. , . , ,

728
728
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 16
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 12
10
. , ? IS LM .
. () , , ,
?
IS LM ?
?
. :

,

. ()-() ?
3. .
. ,
.
IS LM .
. , ? ( -2 ()
).
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-
makroekonomika
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9/27/2010 1:47:38 PM
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47:38 PM
. ,

? ,
? IS LM .
. , ,
, ? ,
. , , .
. :

,
. ()-()
?
4.
, 5 :
W
1
=
P (1 + 0, 05)
, :
W
= 1 (uS + 0,5u L )
P
uS u L
. , uS , u L
.
Tavi 22
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 16
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
, uL = u uS = (1 )u , u

0 < <1
. ,
,
?
? .
.
(: uL = u uS = (1 )u .
-].
. , = 0, 0;
0, 4; 0,8. .
5. .
(8.10) :
t t 1 = (ut un )
. .

? (8.10) , , .
. u
u = uS + u L , uS ( ) u L ( ) ,
-4 . ut (8.10) .
. ,
. ,
(8.10) , .
uL = u
. ,
uS = (1 )u , 4 ()-.
() ,
729
729
9/27/2010 1:47:40 PM
9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM
, ut - . ()
.
. , (.. ). , , () .
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( ).
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.

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.

6.
-15 , (),

() . (www.economist.com).
.
,
, .
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?
. 10-
.
, ?
. ( ,
)
. ,
?
. ,
, . .

( )
, ? , .
?
, Prentice Hall- :
730
730
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 16
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 12
10
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9/27/2010 1:47:38 PM
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damatebiT wasakiTxi
, : Lester Chandler, Americas

Greatest Depression, Harper & Row, New
York, 1970,
. John A.
Garraty, he Great Depression, Harcourt Brace
Jovanovich, New York, 1986.
Peter Temin, Did Monetary Forces Cause the
Great Depression? W.W. Norton, New York,
1976, .
, the
Journal of Economic Perspectives-
1993 , .
- ,
Peter Temin, Lessons from the Great Depression, MIT Press, Cambridge, MA, 1989.
,
(NIRA) , Harold Cole
and Lee Ohanian, The Great Depression in
Tavi 22
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 16
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
the United States from a Neoclassical Perspective, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Quarterly Review, Winter 1999.
,
,
Studs Terkel, Hard Times: An Oral History of
the Great Depression in America, Pantheon
Books, New York, 1970.
, , , Takatoshi Ito, The Japanese Economy, MIT Press, Cambridge, MA, 1992.
Adam Posen, Restoring Japans Economic
Growth, Institute for International Studies,
Washington, DC, 1998, .
Ben Bernanke, Vincent Reinhart, and Brian
Sack, An Empirical Assessment of Monetary
Policy, Alternatives at the Zero Bound, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Washington, DC, 2004, ,
, .
731
731
9/27/2010 1:47:40 PM
9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM
ermaniaSi 1913 wels mimoqcevaSi arsebuli fulis niSnebis mTliani

Rirebuleba 6 miliardi marka iyo. aTi wlis Semdeg, 1923 wlis oqtomberSi,
6 miliardi marka berlinSi mxolod erTkilogramiani Wvavis puris
sayidlad Tu ikmarebda. erTi Tvis Semdeg ki, igive purze fasma 428
miliardi marka Seadgina.
1920-iani wlebis dasawyisis germaniis hi perinflacia, albaT, yvelaze cnobili hiperinflaciaa (hi perinflacia Zalian maRal inflacias niSnavs), magram - araerTaderTi. cxrili 23.1 Svid mTavar hi perinflacias aRwers, romelic I da II msoflio
omebis Semdeg iyo. am hi perinflaciebs bevri msgavsi Tavisebureba aqvs - yoveli
maTgani moklevadiani (daaxloebiT, erTi weli grZeldeboda), magram intensiuri
iyo, TveSi saSualod 50-procentiani inflaciiT. saerTo jamSi, fasebis donis zrda
meryeobda. rogorc xedavT, fasis yvelaze didi zrda iyo ara germaniaSi, aramed meore msoflio omis Semdgom ungreTSi. is, rac 1945 wlis agvistoSi 1 ungruli pengo
Rirda, erT welze naklebi drois Semdeg ukve 3800 trilion pengod fasobda.
inflaciis aseTi tempebi arc manamde iyo SemCneuli da arc - Semdgom. uaxloes war-
Tavi 23
maRali inflacia
733
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3
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1:47:35 PM
sulSi msgavsi inflacia 1984 da 1985 wlebSi boliviaSi iyo. 1984 wlis ianvridan
1985 wlis seqtembramde boliviurma inflaciam TveSi saSualod 40 procents miaRwia - uxeSad rom vTqvaT, 21 TveSi fasebis done 1000-jer gaizarda (TveSi inflaciis
40-procentiani zrdiT fasebis donem 21 Tvis bolos Seadgina gamravlebuli sawyisi fasebis doneze),
1920-iani da 1940-iani wlebis Svidi hiperinflacia
cxrili 23-1
dasawyisi
dasasruli
avstria
oqt. 1921
agv.
germania
agv.
1922
noemb. 1923
saberZneTi
noemb. 1943
noemb. 1944
ungr e Ti 1
mar.
1923
Teb.
1924
ungr e Ti 2
agv.
1945
ivl.
1946
poloneTi
ian.
1923
ian.
1924
ruseTi
dek.
1921
ian.
1924
PT/ P0
1922
saSualo Tviuri saprocento ganakveTi (%)
70
saSualo Tviuri
fulis zrda (%)
47
31
1.0
10 10
322
314
4.7
10 6
365
220
46
33
19,800
12,200
82
72
57
49
44
3.8
10 27
699
1.2
10 5
SeniSvna: PT/ P0 aris fasebis done hiperinflaciis bolo Tves gayofili pirveli Tvis fasebis doneze.
.
Studies in the Quantity
wyaro:
Theory of Money, University of Chicago Press, Chicago, 1956, Table 1.
magram bevri qveyana, gansakuTrebiT laTinur amerikaSi, maRali inflaciis xangrZlivi Semotevebis winaaRmdeg ibrZoda. 23.2 cxrili laTinuri amerikis oTxi
qveynisTvis, 1976-dan 2000 wlamde, saSualo yovelTviuri inflaciis doneebs gviCvenebs. oTxiveSi xuTi wlis ganmavlobaSi adgili hqonda TveSi saSualod 20 procentze maRal inflacias. argentinasa da braziliaSi aT welze meti drois ganmavlobaSi TveSi 10-procentiani inflaciis tempi iyo. oTxive qveyana axlaxans daubrunda dabal inflacias. dRes inflacia TiTqmis yvela qveyanaSi dabalia. erTaderTi gamonaklisia zimbabve, sadac 2007 wlis Sua periodSi inflaciis donem TveSi
daaxloebiT 25 procents miaRwia.
ra iwvevs hi perinflaciebs? me-9 TavSi Tqven naxeT, rom inflacia, sabolood, nominaluri fulis zrdis Sedegia. nominaluri fulis zrdasa da inflacias Soris
damokidebuleba 23.1 cxrilis bolo ori svetiT dasturdeba. SeniSneT, rogor iyo
dakavSirebuli maRali inflacia nominaluri fulis maRal zrdasTan TiToeul qveyanaSi. ratom iyo nominaluri fulis zrda aseTi maRali? pasuxi yvela hi perinflaciisTvis msgavsia: nominaluri fulis zrda maRalia, radgan biujetis deficitia maRali. biujetis deficiti maRalia, radgan ekonomika mniSvnelovani Sokebis
zemoqmedebis qveS iyo, romelic fulis Seqmnis gareSe mTavrobis xarjebis dafinansebas arTulebs an SeuZlebels xdis.
am TavSi Cven am pasuxs ufro detalurad, hi perinflaciis uamrav magaliTze dayrdnobiT ganvixilavT:
734
734
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nawili 23.1 ganixilavs damokidebulebas biujetis deficitsa da

fulis Seqmnas Soris.
nawili 23.2 ganixilavs damokidebulebas inflaciasa da

realur fulis balanss Soris.
cxrili 23-2
maRali inflacia laTinur amerikaSi 1976 - 2 000 wlebSi

saSualo Tviuri inflaciis tempi %
argentina
19761980
9.3
19811985
12.7
19861990
20.0
19911995
2.3
19962000
0.0
brazilia
3.4
7.9
20.7
19.0
0.6
nikaragua
1.4
3.6
35.6
8.5
0.8
peru
3.4
6.0
23.7
4.8
0.8
wyaro: International Financial Statistics, IMF, various issues .
nawili 23.3 aerTianebs orives da gviCvenebs, rogor SeiZleba biujetis didma

deficitma maRali da zrdadi inflacia gamoiwvios.
nawili 23.4 ganixilavs, rogor mTavrdeba hi perinflacia.
nawili 23.5 exeba daskvnebs, romelic gamomdinareobs am wignis 22-e Tavidan
- paTologiebi, - depresiebi, da krizisebi da mocemuli Tavidan - maRali inflacia.
23. 1
biujetis deficiti da fulis Seqmna
-
:
, .
. .
, :
.
, -4 , ; . ,
:
, .
, ,
.
.
, , ,
, . , , :
Tavi 23
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
maRali inflacia
735
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. , ,
:
, .
, , 1980- .
,
. 1922
1923 .
( ) ,
,
.
, ,
, , .
, 1980 .
- , , .
. , 2000 ,
, ,
.
. (23.1) H ,

M
(
, ).
.
736
736
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 12
10
.
. , ,
. ,
. , . , .
, ?
, M - (
, , ). M

, .
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( ) ,
M - , M P ( ). ,
(seignorage ) . , () .
.
, :
=
M
P
(23.1)
.
, . , M P ,
M M M
=
P
M P
: ( M P ) , ( M M),
P , (M/P),
.
, . (23.1)
:
=
M M
M P
,
,
.
(23.2)
,
.
(23.2) , Y- ( ):
M M / P
seignorage
=
Y
M Y
:
. Y
.
(23.3)
, , 10
. , /Y=/Y=0,1. ,
, , (M/P)/
Y=2. ,
M
M
2 = 0,1
= 0, 05
M
M
Tavi 23
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
maRali inflacia
737
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10- , 5 .
, 20
10- , 40- 20-
.? . ,
, ,
. (23.2) , , M M - , M P - . ,

. , ,
. .
, : ,
.
23. 2
inflacia da realuri fulis

balansi
, ? ?
, LM , -5
:
M
= YL(i )
P
()
. .
, .
. :
738
738
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10
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, LM ,
i = r + e , .
-14 ,
e
r = ie , ,
i = r +
M
= YL(r + e )
P
, Y, , r , , e .
, , ( Y , r e ) ,
,
: , ,
, , 20
.
, , , ,
, . :
M
= Y L1r + pe2
P
1 - 2
(23.4)
Y - r - , . (23.4) , ,
, .

.
. 100 , ,
(
). ,
. ,
. ,
. , , ,
,
. , , . 1980-

- . -
Tavi 23
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
maRali inflacia
1920- :
, , ,
,
,
,
,
.
739
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, ,
,
(

?), ,
.
, (
).
,
? . 23.1 1920-

.
.

, 23.1
:
, M P -
,
, P , ,
M. ,

,
.
, :
,
.
23. 3
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 12
10
deficiti, senioraJi da inflacia
740
740
. 23.1 () 1922 1924 .

,
. 1923
. 1924 , , ,
, .
. 23.1 () . 23.1()- ,
.
, ( , , .
). , : , , .
, [(23.2) ].
.
[(23.4) ]. .
:
= a
M
b
M
= a
M
b
M
3Y L1r + pe24
M
b
P
(23.5)
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0.300
70
60
0.275
50
inflacia,
(skala
marjvniv)
0.250
40
30
0.225
20
10
0.200
realuri fuladi
balansi, M/P
(skala marcxniv)
0.175
0
10
yovelTviuri inflaciis tempi (procenti)
realuri fuladi balansi (procenti)
(23.2) .
(23.4) , .
(23.5) ,

, , ,
.
nax. 23 - 1
1922 1924 .

.
noe. dek. ian. Teb. mar. apr. mais. ivn. ivl. agv. seq. oqt noem. dek. ian. Teb
1922
1923
1924
yovelTviuri inflaciis tempi (procenti)
(a)
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
10
0.175
0.200
0.225
0.250
0.275
0.300
realuri fuladi balansi

(b)
Tavi 23
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maRali inflacia
741
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nominaluri fulis mudmivi zrdis SemTxveva
:
[(9.8) ]:
= gm g y
g y = 0 = gm
,
(, , . , , ;
).
?
,
. , , .
, ,
:
e = =
M
M
(23.5) e M M - :
=
M
M

M
Y L r +
(23.6)
,
M M
:
M M
M M e

e
L r +
M P .
742
742
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10
,
. (23.6) M M -.
, , . (23.6) M M -.
, .
. 23.2-.
.
, ,
. ,
.
(, , ), ,
. ,
. 23.2- A

.
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nax. 23 - 2
M
P

senioraJi,
A
fulis zrda,
M
M
. 23.2- ,
. .
, . , ,
.
. , 100- , :
, ?
.
(Arthur Laffer) 1980- , - . , : , , . :
,
, .
. , .
, , . , M P .
Tavi 23
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
maRali inflacia
-20

:
1980- .
743
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5
, 5 .
, 5- .
, (M P ) , . () : , , (M M )(M P ) , .
,
, :
= M
P
M M
=

M P
=

? ,
(Philip Cagan) 1956 . -
23.1 [(23.4) ] . , (23.6)
, ,
. , , 23.3 . 23.1
.
23.3 : , (-3
) , ( ) .
II (12200 cxrili 23-3
nominaluri fulis zrda da senioraJi
fulis zrdis tempi, romelic

senioraJis maqsimizaciis
(% yovelTviurad)
aracxadi
senioraJi
(gamoSvebis mimarT%)
fulis zrdis
faqtobrivi tempi
(% yovelTviurad)
avstria
12
13
31
germania
20
14
314
saberZneTi
28
11
220
12
19
33
32
12,200
54
4.6
72
39
0.5
49
ungreTi 1
ungreTi 2
poloneTi
ruseTi
SeniSvna:
nominaluri fulis zrdis maCvenebeli TveSi, procentebSi.
Studies in the Quantity
wyaro
Theory of Money, University of Chicago Press, Chicago, 1956.
744
744
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 12
10
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9/27/2010 1:47:38 PM
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).
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M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
maRali inflacia
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9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM
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M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 12
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hiperinflaciebi da ekonomikuri aqtiuroba
9/27/2010 1:47:38 PM
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4-
.

25- .
rogor mTavrdeba hiperinflacia
. , .
stabilizaciis programis elementebi

, ,
:
Tavi 23
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
maRali inflacia
747
9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM
1991
. 1
1 . 1991
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748
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10
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, , ,
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, , ; ( - , ). 23.1

. 1980- 1990- .

1990
,
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.

.
SeiZleba, rom stabilizaciis programebi CaiSalos?

, ? , ,
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. 1995 , 12 .
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-
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M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
maRali inflacia
21- ,
,
, 10

.
, 1984
.
749
9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM
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1980-iani wlebis hiperinflacia boliviaSi

1970 , (, , ,
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9 3
.
18 ,
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1982 0,3
1983 1,0 . , ,
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.
1 1981- 1986 . ,

.
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.

, . 1984
31,6 .

. ,
1981 2,5 -
centraluri mTavrobis Semosavlebi, danaxarjebi da deficiti

procentulad boliviis mTlian Sida produqtTan mimarTebaSi
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
Semosavlebi
9.4
4.6
2.6
2.6
1.3
10.3
danaxarjebi
15.1
26.9
20.1
33.2
6.1
7.7
biujetis balansi (: deficiti)
5.7
22.3
17.5
31.6
4.8
2.6
wyaro : Jeffrey Sachs, The Bolivian Hyperinflation and Stabilization, National Bureau of Economic Research working paper
no. 2073, November 1986, Table 3.
750
750
12
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 10
makroekonomika
9/27/2010 1:47:38 PM
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47:38 PM

. 1982
, 1983 ,
1984 , 1984 1985 . 1984
, -
,
. , .
, 1985 ,
,
. . :

, . ,
.
inflaciis tempi TveSi (procenti)
200
175
150
125
100
75
50
25
0
CanarTi
, 1982 7 , 1983 11 . . 1- ,
1984 1986
(
), 1984 1985
, 1985 182 .
ianvari
Tebervali
marti
aprili
maisi
ivnisi
ivlisi
agvisto
seqtemberi
oqtomberi
noemberi
dekemberi
ianvari
Tebervali
marti
aprili
maisi
ivnisi
ivlisi
agvisto
seqtemberi
oqtomberi
noemberi
dekemberi
ianvari
Tebervali
marti
aprili
25
1984
nax. 1
1985
boliviuri inflaciis tempi saSualod TveSi 1984 wlis ianvridan 1986 wlis aprilamde.
Tavi 23
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
1986
maRali inflacia
751
9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM
-
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, ).
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. ,
. , . , , .
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-9 , 1980-

. , , 1980-
. , , 752
752
12
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 10
makroekonomika
9/27/2010 1:47:38 PM
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. 1 ,
1986
5 .
? .

.
,
. ,
.
, 1986

.
. 1986 , 3
10
.
: The material in this box draws largely
from Jeffrey Sachs, The Bolivian Hyperinflation
and Stabilization,
National Bureau of Economic Research working paper no. 2073, November 1986. Sachs was
one of the architects of the stabilization program.
See also Juan Antonio Morales, The Transition
from Stabilization to Sustained Growth in Bolivia, in Michael Bruno,et al.,eds., Lessons of
Economic Stabilization and Its Aftermath,MIT
Press,Cambridge,MA,1991.

. , .
, 9.3
, ,
, , :
, , ( )
, , .
, , ,
.

.

.
,

,
.
, .
. , -
Tavi 23
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
maRali inflacia
753
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,

. , , . 2007

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M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 16
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
maRali inflacia
755
755
9/27/2010 1:47:40 PM
9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM
sakvanZo terminebi
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10
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9/27/2010 1:47:38 PM
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, Prentice Hall- :
Tavi 23
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 16
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
maRali inflacia
757
757
9/27/2010 1:47:40 PM
9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM
damatebiT wasakiTxi
Steven Webb, Hyperinflation

and Stabilization in the Weimar Republic, Oxford
University Press, New York, 1989
,

:
Rudiger Dornbusch, Federico Sturzenegger, and
Holger Wolf, Extreme Inflation: Dynamics and Stabilization, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity,
1990 2, 1 84.
Pierre Richard Agenor and Peter Montiel, Development Macroeconomics, Princeton University Press,
Princeton, NJ, 1995, Chapters 8 to 11 -8
;
.
, 1980- ,
Michael Brunos Crisis, Stabilization and Economic
758
758
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 16
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 12
10
Reform, Oxford University Press, New York, 1993,

-2 -5 .
.
- ,
Thomas Sargent, The Ends of Four Big Inflations,
in Robert Hall, ed., Inflation: Causes and Effects,
NBER and the University of Chicago, Chicago,
1982, 41-97In that article, Sargent argues that a
credible program can lead to stabilization at little or
no cost in terms of activity.
Rudiger Dornbusch and Stanley Fischer, Stopping Hyperinflations, Past and Present, in WeltwirtschaftlichersArchiv, 1986-1, 1-47,
, , 1947 ;
1985 1985 .
makroekonomika
9/27/2010 1:47:40 PM
9/27/2010 1:47:38 PM
am wignis yoveli Tavi

yuradRebas politikis
rolze amaxvilebs.
Semdeg sam TavSi maTi
Tavmoyris mcdelobaa.
Tavi 24
24- :
,
, ?
, ,
, ,
?
: . .

.
Tavi 25
25-
. ,
?
, ;

?

?

.
ukan politikisken
ukan politikisken
759
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM
Tavi 26
26-
.
,
,

. ,

,

.

.
760
M01_BL
wignSi
araerTxel vnaxeT, finansuri da monetaruli politikis

swor Serwymas rogor SeuZlia qveyanas recesiidan gamosvlaSi
daexmaros, gaaumjobesos misi savaWro poziciebi aqtivobis zrdisa
da inflaciis provocirebis gareSe, Seamciros ekonomikis gadaxureba, moaxdinos investiciebis stimulireba, kapitalis akumulireba da a.S.
Tumca, es daskvnebi, ewinaaRmdegeba im xSir moTxovnebs, rom politikis
gamtareblebi gadawyvetilebebis miRebisas mkacrad SezRudulebi unda iyvnen:
SeerTebul StatebSi regularulad iTxoven konstituciaSi Seitanon Sesworebebi,
romelic dabalansebuli biujetis miRebis aucileblobas gaiTvaliswinebs. aseTi
mowodeba SeerTebuli Statebis Sualeduri arCevnebisaTvis respublikelTa
mier Sedgenili dokumentis - xelSekruleba amerikasTan - pirveli punqti
iyo, romelic nax. 24.1-zea warmodgenili. evropis im qveynebSi, sadac mimoqcevaSi
evro SemoiRes, xeli moaweres stabilurobisa da zrdis paqts (Stability and Growth Pact), romelic maT avaldebulebs biujetis deficiti mTliani
Sida produqtis 3 procentis qvemoT SeinarCunon, winaaRmdeg SemTxvevaSi,
didi finansuri sanqciebi moeliT. monetaruli politikac cecxlis qveSaa.
magaliTisTvis, axali zelandiis centraluri bankis Sesaxeb kanonmdebloba,
romelic 1989 wels Seiqmna, monetaruli politikis rols gansazRvravs, rogorc,
mxolod, fasebis stabilurobis garants da yvela danarCen makroekonomikur
mizans gamoricxavs.
am nawilSi makroekonomikuri politikis SezRudvebia ganxiluli:
am
24.1 da 24.2 nawilebi ganixilavs mosazrebas imis Taobaze, rom politikis

gamtareblebs, SesaZloa keTili zraxvebi hqondeT, magram maT mier miRebul gadawyvetilebebs, xSirad, ufro meti zianis motana SeuZlia, vidre
sargeblis.
24.3 nawili ganixilavs kidev erT, ufro cinikur mimarTulebas, romlis

Tanaxmadac politikis gamtareblebi akeTeben imas, rac ukeTesia maTTvis
da ara qveynisaTvis.
Tavi 24
unda SeizRudon
politikis
gamtareblebi?
761
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
3
9/27/2010 1:47:37
1:47:35 PM
respublikuri partia
xelSekruleba amerikasTan
pasuxismgeblobis programa
movismineT Tqveni problemebi da yvelaferi naTeli da garkveulia. Tu
xmebis umravlesobas mogvcemT, kongresis pirvel dRes respublikuri partia
uzrunvelyofs:
vaiZulebT kongresmenebs, yvela amerikelis msgavsad, arsebuli kanonebis
Sesabamisad icxovron, Seamciron kongresis komitetis aparatis
TanamSromelTa raodenoba erTi mesamediT, aseve Seamciron kongresis
biujeti.
Semdeg, pirveli 100 dRis ganmavlobaSi
kenWisyraze 10 kanonproeqts davayenebT:
1. dabalansebuli biujetis Sesaxeb
Sesworeba da rig sakiTxebze vetos amoqmedeba. droa vaiZuloT mTavroba, icxovros
saxsrebis Sesabamisad da aRadginos TeTri
saxlis sabiujeto pasuxismgebloba.
2. moZalade kriminalebis SeCereba:
moZalade damnaSaveebis mimarT viyoT
mkacrni, sikvdiliT dasja efeqturad, moxerxebulad da droulad vawarmooT. agreTve SevamciroT danaSauli da avaSenoT
meti cixe. ufro gavaxangrZlivoT sasjelis
vada da ganvaTavsoT meti policieli
quCaSi.
3. keTildReobis reforma: mTavrobam
unda waaxalisos momuSave adamianebi,
kerZod, visac ar hyavs bavSvebi qorwinebis
gareSe.
4. Cveni bavSvebis dacva: unda gavaZlieroT ojaxebi, raTa mSoblebma meti
kontroli gauwion ganaTlebas, SemoviRoT
bavSvebis movlisTvis anazRaureba da davawesoT mkacri sasjeli sabavSvo pornografiaze.
5. gadasaxadebis Semcireba ojaxebisTvis: ufro advilad mivaRwioT amerikul
ocnebas - davzogoT, SeviZinoT saxli da
gavagzavnoT bavSvebi kolejSi.
6. Zlieri erovnuli Tavdacva: gvWirdeba Zlieri erovnuli Tavdacva, aRvadginoT Cveni erovnuli usafrTxoebis
Rirseuli dafinanseba.
7. xanSiSesuli moqalaqeebis saSemosavlo limitis gazrda: bolo movuRoT mTavrobis mxridan asakobriv diskriminacias, romelic xels uSlis xanSiSesul moqalaqeebs imuSaon, Tu maT es
surT.
8. samTavrobo regulaciebis Semcireba:
mkacrad SevamciroT regulaciebi, romelic
axrCobs mcire bizness da gavuadviloT
xalxs investireba, raTa Seiqmnas samuSao
adgilebi da gaizardos xelfasebi.
9. gonivruli sasamarTlo reforma:
sabolood unda SevaCeroT gadaWarbebuli
moTxovnebi, usafuZvlo sasamarTlo ganxilvebi da zedmetad gulmodgine iuristebi.
10. kongresis drois limiti: SevcvaloT
karieristi politikosebi kanonmdebeli
moqalaqeebiT. bolos da bolos politika
ar unda iyos mudmivi samsaxuri.
(gTxovT, ixileT ukana mxare, awers

Tu ara Tqveni raionis kandidati xels
xelSekrulebas 1994 wlis 5 oqtombers).
Tu davarRvevT am xelSekrulebas, mogveciT acileba, Cven viTvaliswinebT amas.
nax. 24 - 1
762
762
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 12
10
makroekonomika
9/27/2010 1:47:38 PM
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47:38 PM
24 . 1
gaurkvevloba da politika

: , .
: , ; , .
- .
ramdeni ician makroekonomistebma sinamdvileSi?

, . , .
,
.
, ,
,
:

( 8 9)?
,
,

( 8 9)?
( 4)?
( 15)?
( 15)? ( 20 21)?

, ( 16)? J-
, ? ,
, .
, , , .
. , . .
Tavi 24
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
unda SeizRudon politikis gamtareblebi?
763
9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM
, , .
. 24.2 .
, (Brookings)
( ) . 12
( ). , . :
,
, . .
, . , 4
, . , . , 4 , . ,
.
?
nax. 24 - 2
,
,
procentuli gadaxra ZiriTadi xazidan
:
12
3.5
VAR
MSG
3.0
2.5
DRI
LINK
2.0
1.5
COMPACT MINIMOD
MCM
1.0
WHARTON
0.5
INTERLINK
0.0
TAYLOR
LIVERPOOL
0.5
EPA
0.1
0
wlebi
764
764
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 12
10
makroekonomika
9/27/2010 1:47:38 PM
M01_BL
47:38 PM
. 24.2 ,
12 .

, . ,
, ,
3- ; 1 . , , 1,2 ,
2 . 6 0,6 , -0,3 2,5 . ,
, ,
.
gaurkvevlobam unda aiZulos politikis gamtareblebi,

rom ufro naklebi akeTon?
? . ,
.
.
7 . . , .
,
7 , 5 , , 2 . , , ,
1
0,4 .

, 5 , 0, 4 5% = 2% - , 5%- .
?
. 24.2- , 4
0,85 . , 0,85/4=0,21% .
Tavi 24
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
, , .

.

.

.
765
9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM
CanarTi
Tormeti makroekonomikuri modeli
766
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 12
(Brookings) 1980- ( , ),
, , ; .

.
DRI (Data Resources Incorporated) (WHARTON)
. , ,
.

. MCM (for
MultiCountry Model) , , ;
INTERLINK-

(OECD), COMPACT-
,
EPA- .
,
,

, ,
. LINK
,
. ,
;
,

.
. : LIVERPOOL ; MINIMOD
; MSG,
(Warwick Mckibbin) (Jeffrey Sachs)
;
TAYLOR- , 7.4
,
(John Taylor) . ,
,
, , , , .

.

.
, -
(DSGE) , (
27- ).
VAR (for Vector Auto
Regresion,
makroekonomika
9/27/2010 1:47:38 PM
M01_BL
47:38 PM
), (Christopher
Sims) (Robert Litterman) ,
. VAR
, ,
, ,
. ,
-
, , ( ) .
:
Ralf Bryant, at al.,
Empirical Macroeconomics for Interdefendent
Economics, Brookings Institution, Washington,
DC, 1988. , .
, . .
,
5 . 5-
5%/0,21=23,8%-
. , 23,8 .
12 , .
, 23,8 . , . 24.2- . , 4
0- 3 ; , 1- 0- 0,75
. , 23,8 0-
17,9%- (23,8%X0,75) . , ,
0- 7 .
, 7-
0 .
Tavi 24
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
767
9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM

,
. ,
William Brainard, Uncertainty
and the Effectiveness of Policy,
American Economic Review,
May, 1967.
: , 23,8
. , 12
- , 5
. 23,8 .
, 10 7-
4 .
.
gaurkvevloba da politikis gamtareblebis SezRudva

,

, -16
.
768
768
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 12
10
: .
. , .
.
(fine-tuning),
.
20 . .
(Milton
Friedman) . ,

, . , (Franco Modigliani) ,

, , . , . , .
, . , . ,
-
makroekonomika
9/27/2010 1:47:38 PM
M01_BL
47:38 PM
, . ,

.
24 . 2
molodinebi da politika
- .
, ,
, , ( -17 ).
. .
30 ,
. , , . . , . ,
,
,
. ,
,
. , ,
, ,
.
: , , .
: , .
: , ,
, .
,
.
, , ,
, ,
. - :
,
Tavi 24
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
: HAL, 1968
2001
:
(2001: A Space Odyssey),
,

.
( ).

. 1994 2005

. 1994
(John Nash) ; (John
Harsanyi) (Reinhard
Selten) (

(Beautiful Mind)). 2005
(Robert
Aumann) (Tom Schelling)
.
769
9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM
. .
mZevlebis ayvana da molaparakebebi

(Finn Kydland)
(Edvard
Prescott)
: Ruls Rather than
Discretion: The Inconsistency
of Optimal Plans, Journel of
Political Economy, Volume 3,
June 1977, 85. 2 004

.
, .
, .
, , . ,
? , , , . ,
,
, ,
.
, .
, . , ,
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M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
773
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(OECD)
, , .
:
Vittorio
Grilli,
Donato Masciandaro, and
Guido Tabellini, Political
and Monetary Institutions
and Public Financial Policies
in the Industrial Countries,
Economic Policy, Octomber
1991, 341-392.
: . 24.3 -
.
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.).
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M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 12
10
saSualo wliuri inflaciis tempi (procenti), 19601990
nax. 24 - 3
18
portugalia
16
14
12
espaneTi
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10
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M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 12
10
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valis Tanafardoba mTlian Sida produqtTan
nax. 24 - 4
1.4

1990
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0.0
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1920
1930
1940
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1900
,
. 1980
.
: Historical Statistics of
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Report of the President.
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, .
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M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5

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M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
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Tavi 24
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
783
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5
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M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
785
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. 2007
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, Prentice Hall- :
damatebiT wasakiTxi
,
Allan
Drazen, Political Economy in Macroeconomics,
Princeton University Press, Princeton, NJ, 2000.
, ,
(James Buchanan)
(George Mason) .
1986
. -
790
790
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 16
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 12
10
, (Richard Wagner) , James Buchanan,

Richard Wagner, Democracy in Deficit: The Political Legacy of Lord Keynes, Academic Press,
New York, 1977.
1970- , ,
: Henry Chappell and Rob McGregor, Did
Time Consistency Contribute to the Great Inflation? Economics & Politics, November 2004.
makroekonomika
9/27/2010 1:47:40 PM
9/27/2010 1:47:38 PM
onetaruli politikis Sesaxeb TiTqmis yovel nawilSia raime naTqvami, mocemuli nawili ki am yvelafers da darCenil gaurkvevlobas uyris Tavs.
upirvelesad, mokled mimovixiloT, rac iswavleT (CanarTi monetaruli politika:
ra da sad SeiswavleT?, ufro detalur Sejamebas iZleva):
mokled gadavavloT Tvali monetaruli politikis zegavlenas rogorc gamoSvebis moculobaze, aseve mis struqturaze: fulis miwodebis zrdas saprocento
ganakveTis Semcirebamde da valutis kursis gaufasurebamde mivyavarT. orive
maTgani saqonelze moTxovnisa da gamoSvebis zrdas ganapirobebs.
saSualo- da grZelvadian periodebSi monetaruli politika neitraluria:
fulis miwodebis an misi zrdis tempis cvlilebebi gamoSvebasa da umuSevrobaze
aranair zegavlenas ar axdens.
cvlilebebs fulis miwodebaSi fasebis proporciul zrdamde mivyavarT.
nominaluri fulis zrdis tempis cvlileba inflaciis tempis Sesabamis
cvlilebas iwvevs.
am Sedegebidan gamomdinare, mocemuli nawili dRevandeli monetaruli politikis

miznebsa da meTodebs ganixilavs:
nawili 25.1 ganixilavs, inflaciis rogori tempi unda SearCios centralurma bankma saSualo- da grZelvadiani periodebisTvis.
nawili 25.2 ganixilavs, Tu rogori unda iyos monetaruli politika imisaTvis,

rom inflaciis am temps saSualo- da grZelvadian periodebSi miaRwios, xolo
moklevadian periodSi gamoSvebis ryeva Semcirdes.
nawili 25.3 ganixilavs, Tu realurad rogor xorcieldeba monetaruli politika SeerTebul StatebSi.
Tavi 25
Sejameba
791
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
3
9/27/2010 1:47:37
1:47:35 PM
monetaruli politika: ra da sad SeiswavleT?
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cxrili 25-1
5 , 5
: 5,8 ; 7,1 ; 6,6 ;
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inflaciis tempebi ekonomikuri TanamSromlobisa

da ganviTarebis organizaciis qveynebSi 1981 wlidan
weli
saSualo OECD*
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1985
1990
1995
2000
2006
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10
15
21
24
25
* inflaciis tempebis saSualo mniSvneloba mTliani Sida produqtis deflatoriT, sadac

gamoyenebulia SefardebiTi mTliani Sida produqtis maCveneblebi, romlebic gazomilia
msyidvelobiTi unaris paritetiT. 30 qveynidan.
, ? , , ?
.
inflaciis danaxarjebi
23- , , , 30
, .
, Tavi 25
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
monetaruli politika: Sejameba
793
9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM
30 . , , 0 3 . , :
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50000 (1 + % ) 50000
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Tavi 25
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
795
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davubrundeT fulis iluzias
, , Alan
Blinder and Don Choi, in A
Shred of Evidence on Theories
of Wages Rigidity, Quarterly
Journal of Economics, 1990.
:

,
,
(greases the wheels)
wheels),,
,
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.
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M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 10
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, ,
.
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25 . 2 monetaruli politikis formireba

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.
. . , , .
()
.
. , ,
, , .
fulis zrdis miznobrivi tempebi da diapazonebi

1990- - , , :

, , . , ,
4- Tavi 25
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
801
9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM
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) 3 , 7- .
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,

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,

.
M 1 -,
H -

- ;

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, ,
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802
12
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 10
, .
,
. , ,
. , ,
.

. 25.1-, 1970 10- 10
(, , , 2000
1991- 2000 ).
. M 1 , ,
. 10- :
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9/27/2010 1:47:38 PM
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nax. 25 - 1
M 1 -is zrda da inflacia (procenti)
10.0
M 1 -is zrda da inflacia: 10-wliani saSualo maCvenebeli 1970

wlidan
M1-is zrda
7.5
inflacia
5.0

M 1 - .
2.5
0.0
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
,
.
.
10- ,
.
. 25.1 , - 1970
M 1 - . , .
, 1980-
,
1990- . 1981 1990 4 , 7,5 . 2000 ,
,
2,5- .
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, , . , . ,
.
, . , ,
. ,
( ) ( ) .
Tavi 25
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
(5.3) ( LM
): (
)
( ):
M
= YL(i )
P

, :
M 1
= YL(i )
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, M P . M - ,
, P
.
803
9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM

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= (ut un )
, ut , un -,
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804
12
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 10
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9/27/2010 1:47:38 PM
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47:38 PM

. , , , , ,
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, , , , ,
.
1973
Tavi 25
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
, 1989
321 (, 1989 280
).

.
,
.

,
, ,
. : M 2 ,
M 3 ... -, M 2 ,

, M 1 -
( )
,
(, ,
), (

). M 2 2006 7,0
, M 1
1,3 .
M 2

:
M 1 - M 2 - , M 2 - , M 1 - , , M 2 -
,
M 1 - .
, , M 1 - , M 2 -
.
, ,
, :
CanarTi
Sesaferisi monetaruli agregatis warumatebeli Zieba
805
9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM
M 2 -is zrda da inflacia (procenti)
10.0
M 2 -is zrda
7.5
inflacia
5.0
2.5
0.0
1970
nax. 1
CanarTi
806
806
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 10
12
12
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
M 2 -is zrda da inflacia: 10-wliani saSualo tempi 1970 wlidan
M 2 -
M 1 -
.
. 1-, 10- M 2
- 1970 . M 2 -
5 1970-
.
2000- ( M 3 -
).
, M 1 - , M 2 - .
, M 2 -,
,
-
. M 2 -
. , M 2
: ,
.
, , M 2 M 3 ,
, M 1 - . , , ,

. ,

M 1 , M 2
M 3 .
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9/27/2010 1:47:38
1:47:38 PM
PM
9/27/2010
M01_BL
47:38
47:38 PM
PM
. , , , .
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,
, . , (John Taylor), Tavi 25
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
807
9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM
-14 : ,
r
, n -, ,
,
-
:
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= 3%

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,
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.
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12
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 10
( t = )
, (ut = un ), , , it ,
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.
a , , , . a , ,
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Tavi 25
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
809
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25 . 3 federaluri sarezervo sistema

moqmedebaSi
(www.
www.
federalreserve.gov)
federalreserve.go
, ,
,
- .
federaluri sarezervo sistemis uflebamosileba

- (Humphrey-Hawkins Act) , 1978 . 2000 , .
:
,
, ,
.
: , , , .
federaluri sarezervo sistemis struqtura

:
810
810
12
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 10
12 , .
.
.
, . - , 14- -
. 4 . .
(FOMC Federal Open Market Committee) . 12 . , .
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, , ,
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.
.

,
.
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M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
-4 ,

:
(25.1)
H , , , .
, c$YL(i ) , ,
(1 c)$YL(i ) - . :
Tavi 25
-
,
. 2000
,
.
-4 , . ,
[ (4.11)] :
H = [c + (1 c)]$YL(i )
. 24.3- ,
-

.
,

, .
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) .
811
9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM
-4
$YL(i ) -, ( , M 1 ).
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. , c$YL(i ) .
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, c$YL(i ) ,
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, .
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. ,
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. , , ,
. , , ,
, . , 10
.
-

,

.
,
.
812
812
12
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 10
, ,
,
.
, , ,
.
: .

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47:38 PM
, , . ,
, ,
.
bankebisTvis sesxis SeTavazeba

(, -4 ).
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, , .
, .
, , H
-, . , , .
1930- , ,
.
.
,
, ,
.
, , , . , ,
, .
, .
, , .
.
-15 : -

. ,
,

,
.
operaciebi Ria bazarze

, .
, , .
,
, H ;
Tavi 25
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
813
9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM
,
-4 .
, H -. ,
,
. - .
politikis ganxorcieleba
,
.
. ,
.
.
.
, .

.
. , ( ), ,
.
.
, , , (
) , ,
.
, , , .
, ? , ?
814
814
12
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 10
. (Alan Greenspan),
2006 ,
(Ben Bernanke)
. , ,
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47:38 PM
, .
, ,
,
. ,
, , 2-3 . ,

, . , , , 15-20 .
,

? :
:
,
, - ,
.
, , .
, , , . . 25.2 1987 (
) .
, 1990-
, 1989 10- 1992 3
, ,
. 2001
federaluri fondebis ganakveTi (procenti)
nax. 25 -2
10
federaluri
fondebis ganakveTi 1987
wlidan
0
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
Tavi 25
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
1990-1991 2001
,
, .
815
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-

: David and Christina Romers Choosing the Federal Reserve Chair: Lessons from
History , Journal of Economic
Perspectives, Winter 2004.
7- 2 . ,
.
.
, , , .
.
, . , , .
Sejameba

.
, , ,
,
.
:
1. ,
, .
2. ,
.
3. , , ,

.
4. ,
, (
) .
, :
1.
.
, , , 3-
, .
2. ,

816
816
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 16
12
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 10
, .
3.

.
4. . , .
:
,

, , ,
.
, , ,
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. ,

-
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9/27/2010 1:47:38 PM
M01
M01_BL
0 PM
47:38 PM
. ,
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: 12 ; ,
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, 794
, 795
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(M2), 805
, 808
- , 810

, 810
, 810

(FOMC),810
, 811
, 812
, 813
, 813
, 813

1. , , , . :
)
.
)
M2- , .
) .
) Tavi 25
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 16
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5

, .
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) ,
.
2. ,
()- ()-
M1- M2- ?
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.
817
817
9/27/2010 1:47:40 PM
9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM
) ATM- () .
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.
3. ,

.
.
, 50 000 .
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i.
:
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i. =0%; i= 4%
ii. e = 10%; i = 14%
) ,
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) , , (
)
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25 ,
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).

?
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. :
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818
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 16
12
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 10
t 1 = (ut un )
)
,

?
) ?
) , , un, .
, ? .
5. , .
- :

. ,
, , . . ,

. , ,
?
?
.
6.
IS - LM .

(David Romer) (Short-Run
Fluctuation), (emlab.berkelcy.edu/users.dromer/index.shtml) . ,
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M01_BL
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47:38 PM

. IS :
Y = C(Y-T) + I(Y,r) + G
, r .

:
i = i + e + b (Y Yn )
e , * , Yn . , >1
b >0. i * ,
, , . ,
, .
(, ,
, .
, , ).
:
r = i e
) r*, r* = i*
*. ,
:
r = r + ( 1) e + b (Y Yn )
(:
).
) IS .
r-,
Y-. -
Tavi 25
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 16
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
(
), ()
e, * Yn - . (MP)
.
) , () ; ,
.
)
. ,
, *- . MP *?
(, a >1).
?
7. ,
-6 .
) , e
Y = Yn = . ,
e . , Yn
. -6 () , , e- MP ( , a >1).
?
) , , , Y > Yn,
, Y <
Yn. () , e- , , *-?
) () ,
, a >1. e- MP ,
a< 1?
?
) , -
819
819
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9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM

, Y > Yn, , Y < Yn. ()

, e- ,
, *-?
a ( ),
?
8.
-4 , -10 . ,
, ,
.

(www.federalreserve.gov) , -4 ( -10
), (FOMC) .
) , ?
) ,
(FOMC)

, , .
)
( ) ?
, Prentice Hall- :
damatebiT wasakiTxi
300
, Modern
Central Banking, by Stanley Fischer (published in

Forrest Capie, Stanley Fischer, Charles Goodhart
and Norbert Schnadt eds. The Future of Central
Banking, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge,
UK, 1995), . ( ). What Central Bankers Could Learn from
Academics and Vice Versa, by Alan Blinder, Journal of Economic Perspectives, Spring 1997, 3-19.
,
,
Ben Bernanke and Frederic Mishkin, Inflation Targeting: A new Framework for Monetary Policy? ,
Journal of Economic Perspectives, Spring 1997 (
820
820
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 16
12
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 10
, ). ,
,
).
,
,
Glenn Hubbard, Money, the Financial System, and
the Economy, 5th ed. Addison-Wesley, Reading, MA,

2004.

N. Gregory Mankiw, U.S. Monetary Policy During the 1990s, in American Economic Policy
in the 1990s, MIT Press, Cambridge, MA, 2001.
, : Bob Woodward,
Maestro; Greenspans Fed and the American Boom,
Simon & Schuster, New York, 2001.
makroekonomika
9/27/2010 1:47:40 PM
9/27/2010 1:47:38 PM
am
TavSi Cven fiskalur politikas iseve ganvixilavT, rogorc 25-e TavSi monetaruli politika ganvixileT - gadaxedeT imas, rac ukve iswavleT da SeavseT carieli
adgilebi.
modiT, Tavdapirvelad gadavxedoT ukve naswavls (CanarTi fiskaluri politika:
ra iswavleT da sad , detaluri Sejamebaa):
moklevadian periodSi, biujetis deficiti (gamowveuli, magaliTad, gadasaxadebis SemcirebiT) zrdis moTxovnas da gamoSvebas. sainvesticio xarjebze zemoqmedebis efeqti araerTgvarovania.
saSualovadian periodSi, gamoSveba mis bunebriv moculobas ubrundeba. Tumca
saprocento ganakveTisa da danaxarjebis Semadgenloba gansxvavebulia. saprocento ganakveTi ufro maRalia, xolo sainvesticio xarjebi ki ufro dabali.
grZelvadian periodSi, investiciebis Semcireba ZiriTadi kapitalis maragebis
Semcirebas iwvevs, rasac, Tavis mxriv, gamoSvebis moculobis Semcirebamde mivyavarT.
am daskvnebis gamotanisas, yuradReba ar gagvimaxvilebia saxelmwifo biujetis
SezRudvebze - anu damokidebulebaze, romelic arsebobs vals, deficits, saxelmwifo xarjebsa da gadasaxadebs Soris. Tumca, rogorc 22-e TavSi iaponiis fiskalur politikaze msjelobam gviCvena, es damokidebuleba mniSvnelovania: aTwleulebis manZilze biujetis didi deficitis Semdeg, iaponiis saxelmwifos vali
gaizarda, ramac, Tavis mxriv, iaponiis mier fiskaluri politikis Semdgomi gamoyenebis SesaZlebloba mniSvnelovnad SezRuda. amgvarad, am TavSi Cvens ZiriTad
mizans saxelmwifo biujetis SezRudvebisa da misi Sedegebis gadaxedva warmoadgens:
nawili 26.1 saxelmwifo biujetis SezRudvebs da misgan gamomdinare Sedegebs: sabiujeto deficits, saprocento ganakveTs, zrdis tempsa da saxelmwifo vals Soris damokidebulebas ganixilavs.
nawili 26.2 ikvlevs fiskaluri politikis ramdenime problemas, romelSic es
SezRudvebi mTavar rols im TvalsazrisiT TamaSobs, rom deficiti sinamdvileSi
mniSvnelovani saxelmwifo valis dagrovebis saSiSroebas ar warmoadgens.
nawili 26.3 ganixilavs SeerTebuli Statebis mimdinare biujets da problemebs,
romelic horizontze Cans, buSis administraciis mier gadasaxadebis Semcirebis
zemoqmedebidan amerikis mosaxleobis daberebis Sedegebamde.
Tavi 26
fiskaluri politika:
Sejameba
821
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3
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1:47:35 PM
fiskaluri politika: ra iswavleT da sad
CanarTi
822
822
12
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 10

.
,

.

.
,
. ,

.
.
, (
),
, . ,
.
,

, .
,
, ,
,
.

, , ,
.
,
. , ,
, ,
.
,
. , ,
.
,

.

.
,
.
,
.
,
.
,
makroekonomika
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.
,
.

,
, , .

.
,
.
26 . 1 saxelmwifo biujetis SezRudvebi

, . ? ?
, ?
deficitisa da valis ariTmetika

. t :
t = rBt 1 + Gt Tt
(26.1)
:
Bt 1 t 1 , , t
; r , . , rBt 1
t .
Gt t
.
Tt t .
: , , .
(26.1) :
,
..
Tavi 26
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
fiskaluri politika: Sejameba

( ). ,
.
- .
823
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,

.
G
, Tr - , Tax - . ,
, rB
, , , . :
= G + Tr Tax

() :
= G (Tax Tr )

. ,
:
= (G + Tr )
Tax

.
,

.
824
824
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 12
10
,
.
, ,

() , , . , , , .
.
, G . G .
T -, , T .
,
.
.
, G - T - , ( G T )- , ,
.
, t t :
Bt 1 = t
Bt
, . .
[(26.1) ] , ,
Bt Bt 1 = rBt 1 + Gt Tt
(26.2)
( ),
. :
, rBt 1 .
, Gt Tt .
( , Tt Gt - ).
, (26.2) :
valis
cvlileba

pirveladi
deficiti
saprocento gadaxda
6
474
8
Bt Bt 1 =
}
rBt 1
6474
8
Tt 1 )
( Gt
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( , ),
, iB , , G ,
, T .
. , 10 . ,
10 . ( ), , ,
10 . ,
10 .
: B
, B .
,

B - :
=

= iB + G T

. , ,
, ,
. ,
.

.. , , , .
, , . ,
, ..
= iB + G T B
= (i ) B + G T
= rB + G T
oficialuri
deficiti
procenti
CanarTi
inflaciis aRricxva da deficitis gazomva
inflaciiT
koreqtirebuli
deficiti
4
1968
nax. 1
1972
1976
1980
1984
1988
1996
2000
2004
oficialuri da inflaciiT koreqtirebuli federaluri biujetis

deficiti aSS-Si 1968 wlidan
Tavi 26
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
1992
825
9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM
r = i () .

,
.

B
.
, ,
, B , .
, , ,
,
, .
, ,
.
. 1 ()
1968 .
1970- 1997

. , 1970-
,
. , 1980
, 1990-
2000 . ,
2
40
,
2% 40%, 0,8 .
,
2
,

(2% 0,8%)=1,2%- .
Bt 1 :
pirveladi
deficiti
Bt
678
=B(t1=+ (1+
r ) Bt r)B
+
G
+
t Tt
1 t-1
(26.3)
t (1 + r ) t 1 , t
, (Gt Tt ) . .
mimdinare da momavali gadasaxadebis Sedareba

, . , 826
826
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 12
10
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. ,
(, ). , , B1 , . ?
sruli dafarva meore wels

, ,
. (26.3) :
B2 = (1 + r ) B1 + (G2 T2 )
, : B2 = 0. B1 - 1- ,
B2 - 0- :
T2 G2 = (1 + r )1 = (1 + r )
, , (1 + r ) - .
:
. ,
, , . ,

(1 + r ) .

. 26.1 ()-: -2 , ,
(1 + r ) .
-2 :
T1
1-
T2
1
+
r
( ) -
sruli dafarva t wels

, t . , t 1
, .
. (26.3) , , -2
B2 = (1 + r ) B1 + 0 = (1 + r )1 = (1 + r )
Tavi 26
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
827
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(a) valis anazRaureba me-2 wels
nax. 26 - 1
gadasaxadebis Semcireba, valis dafarva da
valis stabilizacia
()
,

(1 + r )
.
() ,

4
(1 + r )
.
()
,

r -
.
weli
gadasaxadebi
(1 r)
vali wlis
bolos
(b) valis anazRaureba me-5 wels
weli
gadasaxadebi
(1 r)4
(1 r)
(1 r)2
(1 r)3
vali wlis
bolos
(g) valis stabilizacia me-2 wels
weli
gadasaxadebi
vali wlis
bolos
-2 , B1 = 1.
,

B3 = (1 + r ) B2 + 0 = (1 + r )(1 + r )1 = (1 + r )
-4 . . , ,
, , , t 1
Bt 1 = (1 + r )
t 2
(26.4)
, , . : ,
, ,
. ,
, .
t , ,
Bt = (1 + r ) Bt 1 + (Gt Tt )
828
828
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10
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9/27/2010 1:47:38 PM
M01_BL
47:38 PM
t , Bt ( t
) . Bt , Bt 1
(26.4) . :
0 = (1 + r )(1 + r )t 2 + (Gt Tt )
Gt Tt - :
TGtt -GTtt = (1 + r )
(1 + r )(1 + r )t 2 = (1 + r )t 1 .
2.
t 1
, , t t 1
, (1 + r ) - . ,
t t 1
(1 + r ) - .
,
-5 , . 26.1 ()-.
:

:
T1 1-
T5 (1 + r ) 4 -
, .
, .
valis stabilizacia t wels

, .
, , , ( , ).
, . , , .
(26.3)
B2 = (1 + r ) B1 + (G2 T2 )
-2
B2 = B1 = 1 .
1 = (1 + r ) + (G2 T2 )
Tavi 26
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( G2 T2 )-
T2 G2 = (1 + r ) 1 = r
T1 1-
T2 , T3 . . . r -.
, ,
. :

, .
. 26.1()-:
1 . r - ; , ,
r - .
, t . , ,
.
:
;
, ;
, , . .
valis mTlian Sida produqtTan Sefardebis evolucia

.
, ,
. ,
, (26.3) ,
1 .
valis tvirTis koeficientis ariTmetika

.
, .
1

( )
830
830
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10
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47:38 PM
(26.3) , Y t - ,
Bt
B
G T
= (1 + r ) t 1 + t t
Yt
Yt
Yt
Bt 1 Yt , ( Bt Yt 1 )(Yt 1 Yt ) (
, Yt 1 -):
Y B
Bt
G T
= (1 + r ) t 1 t 1 + t t
Yt
Y
Y
Yt
t t
,
, Y -. , ,
g , , Yt 1 Yt , 1 (1 + g ) . : (1 + r ) (1 + g ) = 1 + r g .
,
Y t
(1
g )Y t 1
Y t -
g )Y t 1 / Y t
1 (1
:
Y t 1/ Y t 1/(1
g ).

-6
Bt
B
G T
= (1 + r g ) t 1 + t t
Yt
Yt 1
Yt
,
Bt Bt 1
B
G T
= (r g ) t 1 + t t
Yt Yt 1
Yt 1
Yt
(26.5)
, (26.5)- ,
:
( ) :

.
.
(26.5) , (26.2) ,
. , r - , (26.2)-, (26.5) ( r g ). : ,
. , r - . ,
Tavi 26
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
( ,
) , , r g , ( ,
)
r g .
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8.
831
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,

, ( r g )- .
valis tvirTis koeficientis evolucia ekonomikuri TanamSromlobisa da ganviTarebis organizaciis qveynebSi.

(26.5) , (
) :

1990- ,
:
, 24- . -
,
24-

. , .
, . 26.2-,

1970- .
. 26.2 :

19731975 1979-1981 .
. -7 .
832
832
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 12
10
,
,
,
.
1970- . , , 1970- , ,
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. (26.5) ,
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makroekonomika
9/27/2010 1:47:38 PM
M01_BL
47:38 PM
nax. 26 - 2
120
belgiis valis tvirTis koeficienti 1970

wlidan.
110
100
procenti
90

1980-
1990 . ,
valis Tanafardoba
mTlian Sida produqtTan
80
70
60
50
40
30
1970
1974
1978
1982
1986
1990
1994
1998
2002
2006
1970-
.
1980- 1990- . :
, , . , , , 1980- , , , r-
.
,
. ,
,
. .
1990-
. 1996 , 115 ! , . , ,
. 80 .
Tavi 26
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833
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26 . 2 fiskaluri politikis oTxi sakiTxi

,
,
.
rikardos ekvivalenturoba

?

,
,
,

.
, ,

,
.
, ,
,
! ,
. (David Ricardo),
, ,
.
1970-
(Robert Barro),
, .
, -
(RicardoBarro proposition).
, 26.1
:

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834
834
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 12
10
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(, 1 ).
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:

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.
1 , ,
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.

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,
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. 26.1()-
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0 (1 + r) t - 1 (1 + r) t - 1 = 1 ,
Tavi 26
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
(1 + r )t 1-.

t
t 1
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835
9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM
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836
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 12
10
deficiti, gamoSvebis stabilizacia da ciklurad

koreqtirebuli deficiti
,

, ,
, ,
. ,
,
,
.
,
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,
,
. , , ,
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Tavi 26
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
837
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, 1980 .
, 1980-
:
1970- ,

. ,

1980- .
,
.
-8 .
omebi da deficiti
. 24.4 - ,

.
. 24-
,
I II .

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,
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:

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omis simZimis gadacema

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M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 12
10
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, .
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Y .
C+I .

(C+I)-
I -,
,
(C+I )-
C- .
gadasaxadebiT gamowveuli damaxinjebis Semcireba

,
, ,
. , ,
, 1990
.
:

,
.

:

, .
-
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Tavi 26
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
EMS
(European Monetary System

) .
839
9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM

.
,
.
Zalian maRali valis safrTxeebi

.

:

.
, , (26.5)
, :
(Gt Tt )
Bt Bt 1
B
= (r g ) t 1 +
Yt Yt 1
Yt 1
Yt
, , 100 .
, 3 ,
2 .

1 :
(3% 2%
)%) 100% = 1% . , , 1
,
, (
: 1% + 1% = 0% ).
,

.
,
. ,
. , ,
3 , ,
12 :
: (r g) 12%2%=10%. (r g)- 1- 10
1- 10
,
. :
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840
840
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1939

15
. 1944 45
!

,
1939
1 1944
36 .
-
. -
,

;
,
1 1939 , 1944
8,5 .
.

1939
7,2 1944
22,7

.

. 1944

22 .
,

1939 53 , 110
!
Tavi 26
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5

? (
-18 ,

.
,
,
. ,
:
1944
6
).
23
, 74- 51
.

,

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.

6 10 4
. ,
,
.
CanarTi
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9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM

21- .
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842
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10
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9
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)
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30 .
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, ,
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: , ,
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,
24- :
,
;

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, .
26 . 3 amerikis SeerTebuli Statebis

biujeti: mimdinare monacemebi da
samomavlo perspeqtivebi

,

.
mimdinare monacemebi
,
, , ,
,
. ,
,
.
.
,
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.
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:
Tavi 26
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
843
9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM

, .
,
,
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.
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M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 12
10
.
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30 .
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Tavi 26
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cxrili 26-1
aSS-s federaluri biujetis Semosavlebi da danaxarjebi, fiskaluri

2006 weli (procentulad mTlian Sida produqtTan)
Semosavlebi
18.9
personaluri gadasaxadebi
7.9
korporaciis mogebis gadasaxadebi
2.9
arapirdapiri gadasaxadebi
0.8
socialuri dazRvevis Senatanebi
6.8
1.3
sxva
danaxarjebi wminda procentis gadaxdebis gamoklebiT
18.4
6.1
moxmarebaze xarjebi
4.1
Tavdacva
2.0
araTavdacviTi xarjebi
transferi
8.9
grantebi saxelmwifos/adgilobrivi mTavrobebis
2.8
sxva
0.7
Tavdapirveli proficiti (1) (+niSaniT: proficiti)
0.5
wminda saprocento gadaxdebi (2)
2.2
realuri saprocento gadaxdebi (3)
0.8
inflaciis komponenti
1.4
oficialuri proficiti: (1) minus (2
1.7
inflaciis moyvana proficitTan SesabamisobaSi: (1) minus (3)
0.3
cnoba: valis mTlian Sida produqtTan Tanafardoba
37.0
wyaro: Survey of Current Business, March 2007, Table 10.
2006 18,9
. , ,
18,4 . ,
0,5
.
2,2
.
1,7 : 0,5%+2,2%=1,7%. ,
(
).
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,
0,3 .
, 2000 ,
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M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 12
10
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,
.

.
saSualovadiani biujetis proeqtebi

. 26.3 2007-
2017 , (CBO
Congressional Budget Office) .
,
nax. 26 - 3
proficiti procentulad mTlian Sida

produqtTan mimarTebaSi
1.5
:
, 20072017
1.0
ZiriTadi xazi
0.5
0.0
0.5
diskreciuli danaxarjebis
mudmivi wili mTlian
Sida produqtTan mimarTebaSi
1.0
1.5
2.0
gadasxadebis SemcirebiT
darCenili
2.5
3.0
3.5
2012
.
,
,

.
4.0
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
;
,

. . 26-3 , 2007
.

.

( ).
, : 2012

Tavi 26
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847
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10
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grZelvadiani periodis problemebi: dabali danazogebi,

dabereba da samedicino dacva
,
?
, :
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StatebSi

- : 2006 13 ,
7
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.. ,
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Tavi 26
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
849
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26.1-

8 ,

40
.
. : (
),
(Medicare,
), (Medicaid,
).
26.2
, ,
, 2005- 2050 .
: ,
2005 4,2 2050
6,2 .
cxrili 26-2
socialuri dacvis, xandazmulTaTvis ufaso samedicino daxmarebis

saxelmwifo programa da SeRavaTiani samedivino daxmarebis
saxelmwifo programa (procentulad mTlianSida produqtTan),
2005 wlidan 2050 wlamde.
socialuri dacva
xandazmulTaTvis ufaso samedicino
daxmarebis saxelmwifo programa/SeRavaTiani
samedicino daxmarebis saxelmwifo programa
sul
wyaro:
2005
4.2
2010
4.2
2030
5.9
2050
6.2
4.2
5.0
9.2
12.6
8.4
9.2
15.1
18.8
The Long-Term Budget Outlook, Congressional Budget Office, December 2005.
,
4,2 12,6 .
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) 45
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9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM

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, Prentice Hall- :
damatebiT wasakiTxi

Robert Barros Are Government Bonds Net Wealth? Journal of Political
Economy, December 1974, 10951117.
,
The Budget and Economic Outlook
(available at www.cbo.gov) for the curret and future
fiscal years.
856
856
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 16
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 12
10

.
-11 ,
,
,

(www.concordcoalition.org/issues/socsec).
makroekonomika
9/27/2010 1:47:40 PM
9/27/2010 1:47:38 PM
TavSi warmovadgine makroekonomikur SexedulebaTa sistema,

romelsac ekonomistTa umetesoba makroekonomikur sakiTxebze
msjelobisas iyenebs; daskvnebi, romlebic maT gamoaqvT da sakiTxebi,
romlebSic isini erTmaneTs ar eTanxmebian. sainteresoa, es struqtura droSi
rogor Camoyalibda. swored am sakiTxs eZRvneba es Tavi:
26-e
nawili 27.1 Tanamedrove makroekonomikis saTaveebidan keinziTa da didi

depresiiT iwyeba.
nawili 27.2 mimoixilavs neoklasikur sinTezs, adrindeli ekonomistebisa

da keinzis ideebis sinTezs, romelic makroekonomikaSi adreuli, 1970-iani
wlebis dasawyisSi dominirebda.
nawili 27.3 racionaluri molodinis kritikas, neoklasikur sinTezze Zlier

Tavdasxmas eZRvneba, ramac 1970-iani wlebidan makroekonomikis sruli gadaxedva gamoiwvia.
nawili 27.4 mimdinare kvlevaTa ganviTarebas gvacnobs.
nawili 27.5 saerTo rwmenis im ZiriTad mosazrebaTa erTobliobis gadaxedviT mTavrdeba, romelsac makroekonomistTa umetesoba emxroba.
Tavi 27
istoria
857
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
3
9/27/2010 1:47:37
1:47:35 PM
27 . 1 keinzi da didi depresia

1936 (John Maynard Keynes) , (General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money) .
, :
, ,
, ,
, .
jon meinard keinzi
858
858
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 12
10
. - .
,
, , , (business cycle theory) . ,
. ,
, , . , .
,
. , . , , , , . -
.

:
,
,
.
(,
), ,
.
, (
) , .

. , : .
, . ,
.
makroekonomika
9/27/2010 1:47:38 PM
M01_BL
47:38 PM
27 . 2
neoklasikuri sinTezi
, . .
1950-
, . (Paul Samuelson) (1955 ),
:
90 ,
. , .
,
.
20
. 1940- 1970-
.
pol samuelsoni
progresi yvela frontze

,
.
, , .
,
.
IS-LM modeli
. IS-LM , 1930-
1940- (John Hicks)
(Alvin Hansen) . IS-LM ,
-5 ,
, : ,
. , IS-LM
. IS LM
: ;
. .
Tavi 27 epilogi: makroekonomikis istoria
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
franko modiliani
859
9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM
moxmarebis, investiciebisa da
fulze moTxovnis Teoriebi
jeims tobini
,
.
.
1950- (Franco Modigliani) (
, )
(Milton Friedman) ( ) , -16 . .
(James Tobin), , , . (Dale Jorgenson) .
-16 .
,
,
, . , , , .
zrdis Teoria
robert solou
. -2 ,
1950- 1960- . , ,
. 1956 (Robert Solow) ,
-11 -12 . . , .
makroekonometrikuli modelebi
lorens kleini
860
860
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 12
10
. (Lawrence
Klein) 1950- . 16
IS . ( ), . 1960- , , MPS (MPS
makroekonomika
9/27/2010 1:47:38 PM
M01_BL
47:38 PM
: MIT-Penn-SSRC ,
, : ,
) . ,
, IS-LM . ,
: , , .
keinzianelebi monetaristebis winaaRmdeg

,
, , . ;
,
,
.
, , . (Milton Friedman) .
, , - , .
, .
, , , ,
.
1960-
.
: (1)
, (2) (3) .
milton fridmani
monetaruli politika Tu fiskaluri politika

, ,
,
. , IS
: . , . , ,
.
.
(Anna Schwartz) 1963 A Monetary History of the United States, 18671960 ( 1867-1960
),
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
861
9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM
.
, , ,
.
, ,
. , (
22- ).
. , .
, . , , , .
filipsis mrudi
edmund felpsi
.
,
( ) ,
. 1960- , , , .

(Edmund Phelps) ( ) . ,
. ,
, ,
, .
-8 ,
. 1970- ,
.
politikis roli
. ,
, ,
, ,
, , (, 25- ). 1958 :

, , ,
, .

862
862
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 12
10
makroekonomika
9/27/2010 1:47:38 PM
M01_BL
47:38 PM
, ...
, .
, , , .
,
. , , , , .
24- , . , .
The Supply of Money and

changes in Prices and Output
( ) , 1958 .
27 . 3 racionaluri molodinebis kritika

, 1970 .
.
,
.
.
. 1970- ,
. . , ,
( -7 ).
.
. 1970- , (Robert Lucas) , (Thomas Sargent) ,
, (Robert Barro)
, . . 1978 :
, [ ] , , , , , .
, , , , ,
, .
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
863
9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM
racionaluri molodinebis sami Sedegi

,
. ,
,
. ,
, , .
lukasis kritika
robert lukasi
Tomas sarjenti
,
. ,
,
. ,
, . ,
, . , ,
, ,
,
, .
. , , 1970- ,
. , , .
racionaluri molodinebi da filipsis mrudi
robert baro
864
864
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 12
10
, ,
. , ,
,
.

. , ,
. ,
;
.
, , . , .
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9/27/2010 1:47:38 PM
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47:38 PM
, , .
, MPS , . , , ,
. ,
, : ,
5- ,
5 . 5 . , ,
, .
, , .
. ,
,
,
. .
optimaluri marTvis sapirispirod TamaSTa Teoria

, ,
. , , .
.
.
, (Finn Kydland) ( , ) (Edward
Prescott) ( , ) . 24- :
, , .
: ,
; ;
.
racionaluri molodinebis integrireba

, 1970- . ,
( ,
) 1970- 1980- .
, , . , , ,
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
865
9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM
.
, , , ,
,
.
.
racionaluri molodinebis Sedegebi
robert holi
rudiger dornbuSi
,
.
. :
(Robert Hall),
, , : ( , -16 ), :
! : . ,
: , , . ,
, . , , , .
(Rudiger Dornbush),
, ,
, ,
. , 21-
, , ;

. ,
, .
xelfasisa da fasebis daweseba

. (Stanley Fischer),
(John Taylor), ,
, . 866
866
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 12
10
makroekonomika
9/27/2010 1:47:38 PM
M01_BL
47:38 PM
, ( ), ,
.
, .
,
, , .
, . , ,
, . , ,

.
stenli fiSeri
politikis Teoria
,
, , ,
,
.
-
, ,
. ,
,
; , .
: 1980-
. , , , . ,
.
27 .4
jon teilori
bolo movlenebi
1980- , : , , ( .
, - , . )
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
867
9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM
axali klasikuri ekonomikuri Teoria da realuri

saqmiani ciklis Teoria
eduard preskoti
868
868
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 12
10
, . . , ,
.., ,
, ,
, , , .
. (Edward Prescott) ,
, , (Real Business Cycle (RBC) models).
.
. ,
, ,
. , : ,
. ,
,
(
). .
(RBC) , .
. 1970- ,
, . ,
,
.
, , ,
; , , . ; ,
, .
, . -12 ,
,
. , , , .
, , makroekonomika
9/27/2010 1:47:38 PM
M01_BL
47:38 PM
, . , , ,
, , , . ,
.
:
.
axali keinzianuri ekonomika

, ,
, ,
. ,
.
. -6 , ,
,
, , .. -
(George Akerlof) , , , , ,
. , .
. , ,

, . ,
. ,
, .
,
(Ben Bernanke) ( , )
.
. , ,
. . , / ?
?
, ,
? (Gregory
Mankiw) ( ) Tavi 27 epilogi: makroekonomikis istoria
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
jorj akerlofi
ben bernanke
869
9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM
, ..

, ( , ,
, ).
, , , , .
, ,
. , ,
(
) ,
( .)
zrdis axali Teoria
pol romeri
870
870
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 12
10
1960- . , 1980-
.
. : (Robert
Lucas) ( )
(Paul Romer) ( , ) . 1960- ,
,

, ,
; . ,
.
-12 -13 . (Philippe Aghion) ( ) (Petter Howitt) ( ) . 1930
(Joseph Schumpeter) , ,
,
. , ,

, , .
. (Andrei Shleifer) ( )
,
. (Daron Acemoglu) ( ) , makroekonomika
9/27/2010 1:47:38 PM
M01_BL
47:38 PM
:
,
; ,
, , ? ,
,
.
integrirebisaken
1980- 1990- , ,
. , ; , , ad hoc ( )
. , , , .
.
.
, , .
, , ,

, .
, .
(Michael Woodford) () (Jordi Gali) (, ) .
, , , .
,
. , , -17 .

, 25-
.
, , ,
. ,
, -
(Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) Models).
, , , .
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
filipe agioni
piter hoviti
andrei Sleideri
daron akemoglu
871
9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM
27 .5
saerTo Sexedulebebi
,
, :
. , .
.
( ), .
:
.
, .
, , - .
,
. , , ; ;
, ,
.
:
, ,
, . ,
, : ! , (
22- ) , , , , .
.
, . , , , ,
. , , , ,
.
, .
. , .
maikl vudfordi
Jordi gali
872
872
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 12
10
makroekonomika
9/27/2010 1:47:38 PM
M01
M01_BL
47:38 PM
Sejameba
1936
, . IS-LM , 1930- 1940-
.
1940- 1970- . : , ,
,
,
.
1960- . ,
.
, , , .
1970-
. :
, ; ,
.

, : (1)
; (2) -
(3)

, .
1970- 1980-

.
,

,
.
. ,

.
.
. , ,
.
, , . :
; .
sakvanZo terminebi
, 858
, 858
, 858
, 859
, 861
, 861
, 864

, 867

(
), 867
, 868

(RBC) , 868
, 869
, 869
, 870
, 870
, 871
DSGE (
), 871
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 16
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
873
873
9/27/2010 1:47:40 PM
9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM
damatebiT wasakiTxi
: J.M.
Keynes, The General Theory of Employment, Money and Interest, Macmillan Press, London, 1936
Milton friedman and Anna Schwartz, A Monetary
History of the United States,186 7.1960, Princeton
University Press, Princeton, NJ. :
,
.
1940- , , Paul Samuelson,
Credo of a Lucky Textbook Author , Journal of
Economic Perspectives, Spring 1997, 153 160.
Robert Lucas, Studies in Business Cycle Theory,
MIT Press, Cambridge, MA, 1981,
.
, , , Edward Prescott, Theory Ahead of Business Cycle Measurement, Federal Reserve Bank
of Minneapolis Review, Fall 1986, 9-22.
.
David Romer, The New
Keynesian Synthesis , Journal of Economic Perspectives, Winter 1993, 5 22.
, Paul Romer, The Origins of Endogenous
Growth , Journal of Economic Perspectives, Win-
ter 1994, 3 22.

, Brian Snowdon and Howard Vane, Moder Mac-
roeconomics: Its Origins, Development and Current
874
874
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 16
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 12
10
State , Edward Elgar, England: Cheltenham UK,

2005
V.V. Chari and Patrick
Kehoe, Macroeconomics in Practice: How Theory
is Shaping Policy N. Greg Mankiw, The Macroeconomist as Scientist and Engineer , Journal of
Economic Perspectives, Fall 2006.
, ,
. Journal of
Economic Perspectives, . The Brookings Papers on Economic Activity,
.
Economic Policy, .
;
. : Economic Review published by the Cleveland Fed, the Economic Review
published by the Kansas City Fed, the New England
Economic Review published by the Boston Fed,
and the Review published by the Minneapolis Fed.

, ,
David Romer, Advanced Macroeconomics, 3rd ed., McGraw-Hill,
New York, 2006, and Olivier Blanchard and Stanley

Fischer, Lectures on Macroeconomics, MIT Press,
Cambridge, MA, 1989.
makroekonomika
9/27/2010 1:47:40 PM
9/27/2010 1:47:38 PM
danarTebi
danarTi 1
(A1)
Sesavali erovnuli
Semosavlisa da
warmoebis angariSebSi

.
(GDP Gross Domestic Product). (NIPA, )
.
,
?
, (
)
?
Semosavlebis mxare
A1-1
.
(1-8 )
, :

.

-
1.
1
.

.
,

, , . . .
.

(
).
(GNP Gross
National Product) (-4 ) .
. , ,
- .
1990- ,

. -
1991 . - ( )
- (
) . , - - , -
.
, ,
, -
- (-2 ), ,

- (-3 ).
2006
30 , ,
30 .

(NNP Net National
Product) .
Sesavali erovnuli Semosavlisa da warmoebis angariSebSi
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
D1
9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM

, .
, -7 -8
(-8 ) . , -
. ,
. , , , ,
.

, ,
A-1- - . ,

( , ..).
, . ,
. 2003 , , (-8
), 3
cxrili A 1-1
, ,
(-6 ).
,
.
A1-1- (-9 -16
)
:
(-9 ) .
, ,
.

.
(-10 ),
, . ,
, , 64 . (-11
) (-12 ) .

(,
)
mTliani Sida produqti: Semosavlebis mxare

2006 weli (mlrd dolari)
mTliani Sida produqtidan erovnul Semosavlamde:

1
mTliani Sida produqti
(GDP)
damatebuli: danarCeni msofliodan faqtoruli Semosavlis miReba
gamoklebuli: danarCeni msofliosTvis faqtoruli Semosavlis gadaxda
udris: mTliani erovnuli produqti
gamoklebuli: ZiriTadi kapitalis moxmareba
udris: wminda erovnuli produqti
gamoklebuli: statistikuri cdomileba
udris: erovnuli Semosavali
13,246
666
636
13,276
1,577
11,699
3
11,702
erovnuli Semosavlis daSla:

9
10
11
12
arapirdapiri gadasaxadebi
daqiravebulTa anazRaureba
912
7,489
6,035
gasamrjelo da xelfasi
1,454
danamatebi gasamrjeloze da xelfasze
13
korporaciis mogeba da transfertebi biznesidan
14
wminda saprocento gadaxdebi
1,700
509
15
mesakuTreTa Semosavali
1,015
16
individTa rentuli Semosavali
77
wyaro: Survey of Current Business , April 2007, Tables 1-7-5 and 1-12.
D22
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 12
10
danarTi 1
9/27/2010 1:47:38 PM
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47:38 PM
,
.

(-13 ): ( , ) . 90
1700 , .
(-14 )
,
,
,
. 2006 ,
: - ,
.
, , ,
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(-15 )
, ,
. ,

.
(-16 )
, . ; .
,
,
, ,
. ,
, , ,
, . ,
, .
,
, .
, A1-2 -, , , ,
.
( 1)
:

,
, (-2 A12-, A1-1- -9 ).

.
. ,

(-3 13 A1-1-) , ,
( ) (-5
).
, (-6 ). 2006 1602
.
956
(-7 ).
, ,
(-8 ).
(-10 )
(-9 ).
2006 , 9522
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.
: , .
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,
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M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
D3
9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM
cxrili A
1-2
erovnuli Semosavlidan pirad gankargvad Semosavlamde

1 erovnuli Semosavali
11,702
912
gamoklebuli: arapirdapiri gadasaxadebi
gamoklebuli: korporaciis mogeba da transfertebi biznesidan
gamoklebuli: wminda saprocento gadaxdebi
damatebuli: aqtivebidan Semosavali
1,656
damatebuli: piradi transfertebi
1,602
gamoklebuli: socialuri dazRvevis anaricxebi
udris: piradi Semosavali
gamoklebuli: individualuri gadasaxadebi
10
1,700
509
956
10,883
udris: piradi gankargvadi Semosavali
1,360
9,522
wyaro: Survey of Current Business, April 2006, Table 1-7-5, 1-12, and 2-1.

( ) , , ,
. ,
,
.
, (-3 ),
(-4 ) ((-5 ) .
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;
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M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 12
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. ,
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, , -
. , , - ,
, , . A1-3 - (-19 ) ,
( ) . ,
- . -
,
. 2006 :
- 49
, - .
cxrili A-3
gafrTxileba
. , ,
,
.. :
. , ,
,
, .
,
.
, . , .
, . . ,
mTliani Sida produqti: warmoebis mxare

1 mTliani Sida produqti (GDP)

2
13,246
piradi samomxmareblo xarjebi
9,269
grZelvadiani saqoneli
1,070
moklevadiani saqoneli
2,715
momsaxureba
5,484
6
7
mTliani kerZo Sida investiciebi ZiriTad kapitalSi 2,163

1,396
arasabinao investiciebi
Senoba-nagebobebi
411
mowyobilobebi da programuli uzrunvelyofa
985
10
11
12
767
binaTmSenebloba
saxelmwifo Sesyidvebi
2,528
927
federaluri
13
erovnuli Tavdacva
621
14
araTavdacviTi
306
15
16
1,601
centraluri da adgilobrivi
wminda eqsporti
763
17
eqsporti
1,466
18
importi
2,229
19
biznesis sasaqonlo-materialuri maragebis cvlileba
49
wyaro: Survey of Current Business, April 2007, Table 1-1-5.
M01_BLAN8290_05_SE_C01.pdf 5
D5
9/27/2010 1:47:37 PM

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makroekonomika

wignis qarTuli Targmani moamzada ivane javaxiSvilis saxelobis

yvela saavtori ufleba daculia. Pearson education, Inc-is

Tbilisis universitetis gamomcemloba, 2010

Sromis bazari 167

gamoSveba, saprocento ganakveTi

gacvliTi kursis reJimebi 655

depresiebi da mkveTri vardna 695

monacemebi zrdis Sesaxeb

ukan politikisken 759

unda SeizRudon politikis

1-1 amerikis SeerTebuli Statebi 4

3-3 wonasworuli gamoSvebis gansazRvra 73

Sevida Tu ara aSS axal ekonomikaSi? 6;

3-4 investiciebi danazogebis tolia:

rogor SeiZleba Semcirdes evropaSi

3-5 aris Tu ara mTavroba yovlisSemZle? gafrTxileba 88

1-4 momavlis ganWvreta 20

2-2 sxva mniSvnelovani makroekonomikuri maCveneblebi 38

3-1 mTliani Sida produqtis Semadgenloba 66

4-1 fulze moTxovna 96

4-2 saprocento ganakveTis

4-3 saprocento ganakveTis

4-4 wonasworobis ganxilvis ori alternatiuli xerxi 119

saqonlisa da finansuri bazrebi

7-3 wonasworoba mokle- da saSualovadian periodebSi 209

5-1 saqonlis bazrebi da IS damokidebuleba

5-2 finansuri bazrebi da LM damokidebuleba 136

5-3 IS da LM damokidebulebebis gaerTianeba 140

7-4 monetaruli eqspansiis Sedegebi 213

7-5 biujetis deficitis Semcireba 219

7-6 cvlilebebi navTobis fasSi 223

7-7 daskvnebi 231

5-4 koordinirebuli politika 147

moklevadiani periodis Sedareba saSualovadian periodTan 231; Sokebi da

5-5 ramdenad Seesabameba IS modeli

6-1 Sromis bazris mimoxilva 168

8-1 inflacia, mosalodneli inflacia da

muSaxelis didi nakadi 169

Tavdapirveli varianti 244; mutaciebi

6-2 moZraoba umuSevrobaSi 172

8-3 reziume da mravali gafrTxileba 252

6-4 fasis gansazRvra 183

6-6 aqedan saiT mivdivarT 192

yvela bazris gaerTianeba:

7-1 erToblivi miwodeba 202

umuSevrobis bunebrivi done

9-1 gamoSveba, umuSevroba da inflacia

9-2 fulis zrdis efeqtebi 276

sawarmoo funqciis gafarToeba

saSualovadiani periodi 278;

9-3 dezinflacia 281

danarTi: kob-duglasis sawarmoo

grZelvadiani periodi 299

12-1 teqnologiuri progresi da zrdis

10-1 cxovrebis donis gazomva 302

12-2 teqnologiuri progresis

10-3 zrda drosa da sivrceSi 312

12-3 kidev erTxel zrdis faqtebis

10-4 Sexedulebebi zrdis Sesaxeb: anbani 315