MATHEMATICS LEARNING SEQUENCE PLANNER Topic: Probability (Chance) Key mathematical understandings Students will see the variability

y in results from a small number of trials. Students will see the larger the number of trials, the more representative the results can be. Level descriptions: Level 6 Conduct chance experiments with both small and large numbers of trials using appropriate digital technologies (ACMSP145) Proficiency strand(s): Understanding Fluency Problem Solving Reasoning Reasoning includes explaining why the actual results of chance experiments may differ from expected results. Understanding includes using fractions and decimals to describe probabilities and making reasonable estimations. Key skills to develop and practise (including strategies, ways of working mathematically, language goals, etc.): Using appropriate language to describe and explain the results from undertaking trials Conducting numerous trials to gather results and analyse these results Key equipment / resources: Dice Unifix Blocks Appendices for scoring and recording Interactive whiteboard Key vocabulary: Variability Probability Trials Representative Results Chance Outcomes Links to other contexts (if applicable, e.g., inquiry unit focus, current events, literature, etc.) This series of lessons links closely to students prior knowledge of fractions and percentages. This particular area assists students to describe the probability or likelihood of outcomes occurring within a set of data. Year Level: 6 Term: Week: Date:

Key AusVELS documentation (taken directly from AusVELS documents): Content strand(s): Sub-strand(s): Chance Number and Algebra Measurement and Geometry Statistics and Probability

Overview of assessment (teacher assessment, self assessment and peer assessment): Assessing through observation of students justifications and descriptions of the probability they encounter Assessing through the collection of work samples and accompanied written explanations

Key probing questions (focus questions that will be used to develop understanding to be used during the sequence of lessons): Why do you think that a small number of trials gives you more variability in your results? Why do you think the more trials you do the more representative the results are?

Learning strategies/ skills

Analysing Checking Classifying Co-operating Considering options Designing Elaborating

Estimating Explaining Generalising Hypothesising Inferring Interpreting Justifying

Listening Locating information Making choices Note taking Observing Ordering events Organising

Performing Persuading Planning Predicting Presenting Providing feedback Questioning

Reading Recognising bias Reflecting Reporting Responding Restating Revising

Seeing patterns Selecting information Self-assessing Sharing ideas Summarising Synthesising

Testing Viewing Visually representing Working independently Working to a timetable

MATHEMATICAL FOCUS

TUNING IN (WHOLE CLASS FOCUS)

INVESTIGATIONS SESSION (INDEPENDENT LEARNING) Students play Our throw of a 6 sided die (adapted from Karina Wilkie, 2012). (Appendix 1) The game is played in pairs. Students must roll the die 10 times each and record their results on the score sheet provided (Appendix 2). Once they have done this they must explain why they think they obtained the results that they did- linking back to the original whole class discussion. Students must then collaborate with 4 other pairs to collect their results. (A total of 100 throws will now be recorded and collated). These will be recorded on their original game sheet (Appendix 2). Key QuestionsWhat can you say about the results you obtained? Are they what you thought they would be? Why/Why not? If you carried out 100 throws of 6 sided die what do you think the results would look like.

REFLECTION & MAKING CONNECTIONS SESSION (WHOLE CLASS FOCUS) In the last 10-15 minutes of the lesson, students will be invited back to the floor to graph their results as a whole class. Using the excel spreadsheet (Appendix 3); students can put their data in the table which automatically creates a pie graph. Students will be asked to justify why their results are so varied when there is only 10 throws but when you put the data for 100 and 500 throws the results are better estimates of theoretical probability.

ADAPTATIONS - Enabling prompt - Extending prompt

ASSESSMENT STRATEGIES

Session 1 Students will see the variability in results from a small number of trials

Students will be shown a large 6 sided die. Teacher prompts students thinking and asks what the probability of rolling a 6 would be. Students will brainstorm/ hypothesise what the probability is of rolling the other numbers on the die. (Linking students prior knowledge of fractions). The results from 10 throws of a 6 sided die will be recorded on the interactive whiteboard.

For those students requiring additional assistance, the use of a coin to throw 10 times may help in understanding the variability in a small number of trials. For those students requiring extension, students will be asked to collate the data for 500 rolls of a die.

The main assessment strategies implemented will be listening to the justifications given by students to describe the results they obtained. Particularly the use of appropriate probability vocabulary.

MATHEMATICAL FOCUS

TUNING IN (WHOLE CLASS FOCUS)

INVESTIGATIONS SESSION (INDEPENDENT LEARNING) Students will work independently to use some digital technology to undertake a large amount of trials (Appendix 10). Students will use interactive spinners and dice to explore theoretical probability. They will then print out the graph which displays data for 10 spins/rolls, 100, 500. What do they notice about the data?

REFLECTION & MAKING CONNECTIONS SESSION (WHOLE CLASS FOCUS) Students will participate in a gallery walk around the classroom, observing the different results gathered from the students. Are there any graphs which stand out? Are there any graphs which are similar? What have we discovered when creating the graphs?

ADAPTATIONS - Enabling prompt - Extending prompt

ASSESSMENT STRATEGIES

Session 4 Students will understand that a large number of trials carried out, reduces variability in results.

Students will participate in a whole class discussion about how to use each of the different interactive simulations.

For those students requiring additional support, guidance when using the technology will be implemented. For those students requiring further extension, creating their own spinners which have more colours on them. They can carry out multiple trials with them and compare the results they obtain to the results they obtained when using a smaller number of colours.

Assessment will be made through students ability to notice and identify the differences and similarities between results. Observations again of their discussions will take place, along with their work samples.

Appendix 1 Our Throw of a 6 sided dice- Game Instructions

(adapted from Karina Wilkie)

Students in pairs must throw a 6 sided die 10 times each (a total of 20 times within their pair) and record their results in the record sheet provided in Appendix 2. Students discuss the variability in their results after only a small number of trials. Students must then collaborate with 4 other pairs to collect their results. (A total of 100 throws will now be recorded and collated). Students will then again discuss their findings and any discoveries they have made once they have collated all their results together. Do they notice anything about the results, are the results still varied when 100 throws are collected? At the conclusion of the lesson, students are invited back onto the floor to collate all their results into a spreadsheet (Appendix 3). A whole class discussion will take place as to the results that the spreadsheet shows.

Appendix 10 Interactive Spinner Simulation

Retrieved from- http://nlvm.usu.edu/en/nav/frames_asid_186_g_2_t_5.html?open=activities Screenshot

Interactive Dice Simulation

Retrieved from- http://nrich.maths.org/6717 Screenshot