Great Decisions 2022

Editorial Advisory Committee

CHAIRMAN

David B.H. Denoon

Professor of Politics and Economics

New York University

Barbara Crossette

Specialist on the UN

and South-Southeast Asia

Michael Doyle

Harold Brown Professor

of International Affairs,

Law and Political Science;

University Professor

Columbia University

Christine E. Lucas

Chief of Operations

Leadership Florida, Tallahassee

Lawrence G. Potter

Adjunct Associate Professor of International and Public Affairs,

Columbia University

Thomas G. Weiss

Presidential Professor

of Political Science

The CUNY Graduate Center

Karen M. Rohan

FPA Editor in Chief,

Ex officio

Foreign Policy Association

Henry A. Fernandez

Chairman of the Board of Directors

Noel V. Lateef

President and CEO

EDITOR IN CHIEF

Karen M. Rohan

ASSISTANT EDITOR

Graham Nau

PHOTO EDITOR

Cynthia Carris Alonso

MAPS AND CHARTS

Robert Cronan

Lucidity Information Design, LLC

About the cover

A Long March-2F carrier rocket, carrying the Shenzhou-12 spacecraft and a crew of three astronauts, lifts off from the Jiuquan Satellite Launch Centre in the Gobi desert in northwest China on June 17, 2021, the first crewed mission to China’s new space station. (GREG BAKER/AFP/GETTY) )

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Researched as of November 17, 2021.

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FPA: Taking Stock and Looking Ahead

In 1918, President Woodrow Wilson imagined a world in which conquest and aggrandizement would be relegated to the dustbin of history. This new world order would be ushered in by a general association of nations that would offer mutual guarantees of political independence and territorial integrity to great and small states alike.

That same year, concerned citizens from all walks of life came together in New York City with a clear mission: to win public support for Wilson’s vision for this new world order. Having witnessed the horrors of the First World War, they believed that the League of Nations could become the bulwark for world peace.

The citizen effort that would come to be known as the Foreign Policy Association persevered. And, in 1944, in a major address to the Foreign Policy Association at The Waldorf Astoria in New York City, President Franklin D. Roosevelt would set out his vision for the United Nations:

Now, there are some who hope to see a structure of peace completely set up immediately, with all the apartments assigned to everybody’s satisfaction, with the telephones in, and the plumbing complete – the heating system and the electric iceboxes all functioning perfectly, all furnished with linen and silver – and with the rent prepaid. The United Nations has not yet produced such a comfortable dwelling place. But we have achieved a very practical expression of a common purpose on the part of four great nations that are now united to wage this war, that they embark together after the war on a greater and more difficult enterprise, an enterprise of waging peace. We will embark on it with all the peace-loving nations of the world—large and small.

The challenge of waging peace has been daunting. The structure of peace President Roosevelt envisioned remains unfinished. While the United Nations continues to champion conflict prevention, the list of global challenges has grown. From climate change to pandemics, the United Nations and its specialized agencies are immersed in the issues of the day.

The United Nations Climate Summit, the twenty-sixth Conference of the Parties (COP26) held in Glasgow, Scotland in November 2021 was not just another UN mega-conference. Under the presidency of the United Kingdom in partnership with Italy, COP26 has succeeded in obtaining net-zero commitments from governments covering four-fifths of global emissions. In addition to ambitious climate policies by governments, the private sector, including financial services, has embarked on aggressive climate actions. The prospects for public/private collaborations coming out of COP26 are encouraging.

Photograph of President Franklin D. Roosevelt and FPA President Major General Frank R. McCoy during President Roosevelt’s 1944 address to the Foreign Policy Association at The Waldorf Astoria in New York City. (Photo by George Skadding/The LIFE Picture Collection/Getty Images)

Less encouraging is the global governance on immunization against Covid-19. Robert D. Hormats has aptly characterized the global Covid-19 pandemic as World War III:

It was not what strategists had imagined decades ago. No nuclear weapons. No missiles or destructive cyber technology. But massively lethal and devastating to economies and the lives of hundreds of millions of people, nonetheless. And countries are not fighting one another but a small, unseen and unpredictable virus that poses a threat to virtually all nations regardless of the nature of their governments or political philosophies.

The rapid development of vaccines for Covid-19 is a remarkable accomplishment. A full-court press should be mounted to immunize the planet’s 7.8 billion people. We have the compelling precedent of the eradication of smallpox when global cooperation prevails. Morality and self-interest are conflated in such initiatives. Likewise, overcoming the Covid-19 pandemic and meeting the pressing challenges of climate change are in the interest of every nation.

Global cooperation will become more compelling over time as new technologies and transnational issues dominate national agendas. Such cooperation gives credence to what the anthropologist Robert Boyd describes as cumulative cultural evolution. Boyd argues: We humans would not be an exceptional species if we did not adapt culturally. Among our most important cultural traits is the ability to cooperate across diverse backgrounds. From what we know of human fallibility, there has never been a greater need for intensive and continuous cooperation than in the nuclear age. An inadvertent action could set off a train of events that could destroy civilization as we know it. A culture of global cooperation for peace and conflict prevention is our best hope.

Cumulative cultural evolution teaches us that challenging situations are resolved by leadership. And that our common humanity and the triumph of the human spirit over adversity are what bind us on this small, fragile planet.

At FPA, we are inspired by this vision. Our mission is anchored in the enduring value of inclusion. Never has it been more important for Americans from all walks of life to be knowledgeable about world affairs. Speaking to FPA members, David Skorton, Secretary of the Smithsonian Institution, observed: We cannot begin to navigate the global economy without understanding world events.

In this our one hundred and fourth year, FPA, notwithstanding the pandemic, is committed to a process of renewal. FPA’s programming is on the record and available to all. Indeed, FPA’s mission is one in furtherance of access and transparency, a mission of imagination and voice. Through balanced, nonpartisan outreach initiatives, such as Great Decisions, FPA encourages the public to participate in the foreign policy process. Throughout its long and honorable history, FPA has served as a catalyst for developing awareness of and informed opinion on global issues. Hence FPA’s motto, An informed public is an engaged public.

Millions of Americans have engaged with FPA through the years to seek a more profound understanding of global challenges; to gather the facts that underpin effective policies. The purpose bringing us together has not been to impose a particular view but to consider and weigh many views.

At the heart of this citizen effort lies the conviction that America must continue to frame its policies by the processes of democracy. At FPA, we do not believe that global challenges are too complex for the public to understand when clearly briefed. Not to a limited circle, therefore, but to all, FPA extends an invitation to join an open dialogue on our collective future in an interdependent world.

Noel V. Lateef

President and Chief Executive Officer

Foreign Policy Association

BONUS ARTICLE!

Changing demographics in the world

by Joseph Chamie

JOSEPH CHAMIE is a consulting demographer, a former director of the United Nations Population Division, who worked at the UN on population issues for more than a quarter century. He has written numerous population studies for the United Nations – as well as under his own name – on growth, fertility, mortality, estimates and projections, international migration and population and development policy.

! Before you read, download the companion Glossary that includes definitions, a guide to acronyms and abbreviations used in the article, and other material. Go to www.fpa.org/great_decisions and select a topic in the Resources section. (Top right)

Lagos residents, despite social distancing order, cluster at Oke-Odo Market, Lagos Nigeria on March 30, 2020, for last minute shopping. According to some projections, by 2100 Nigeria could have one of the largest populations on earth. (ADEKUNLE AJAYI/NURPHOTO/GETTY IMAGES)

The world experienced extraordinary demographic changes during the 20th century that are continuing to play out through the 21st century. In addition to unprecedented rapid rates of growth, the population of the world and virtually every country’s population went through remarkable transformations in the three key demographic components, i.e., mortality, fertility, and migration, as well as major changes in their distributions across regions and within countries.

The demographic transformations and changes, which are continuing across the planet, have resulted in significant and far reaching social, economic, political, environmental and climate consequences for nations in every region of the world. Those consequences are in turn creating mounting critical challenges to demographic well-being, development efforts, international relations, security, climate, the environment and the sustainability of human populations.

To effectively consider likely future population trends and challenges, it is useful to examine past demographic trends particularly the unprecedented changes that took place during the 20th century. An understanding of population trends of the recent past, including the extraordinary changes in the key demographic components, provides instructive insights that can help guide sound policymaking, equitable socio-economic development, and environmental concerns, including addressing the devastating consequences of climate change.

WORLD POPULATION GROWTH

For most of human history, the world’s population grew very slowly. By the close of the 15th century, for example, world population had increased to about a half a billion. The one billion milestone for world population was reached around the start of the 19th century (Table 1).

TABLE 1

Past and Projected World Population

SOURCE: UNITED NATIONS

The reason for the slow growth of world population up to the one billion mark was due to high mortality rates largely the result of famine, disease, and war. Daily life was harsh, difficult, and limited for virtually all men, women, and children; the only exceptions were the wealthy and powerful few. Infant mortality and child deaths were common, maternal mortality was high, and few people reached the old age of 60 years.

While it took thousands of years for world population to reach one billion in 1804, the two billion mark was reached in 1927, approximately 123 years later. After that demographic milestone, the growth of world population accelerated (Figure 1). It took 33 additional years for world population to reach three billion in 1960 and another 14 years to reach the four-billion mark. The most rapid growth for world population to gain a billion people was from five billion in 1987 to six billion in 1998, a record-breaking span of only 11 years. In 2021, world population has grown to 7.9 billion and is expected to reach 8 billion by 2023.

During the 20th century, the world’s population grew at a record-breaking pace, nearly quadrupling in size from 1.6 billion to 6.1 billion. The large part of this growth—some 80%—occurred during the second half of the 20th century.

In addition, the world’s most rapid rate of population growth and largest annual increase also occurred during the second half of the 20th century. The global growth rate peaked at around 2% in the late 1960s and by the century’s end had declined to about 1.3%. The peak annual increase in world population occurred in the late 1980s with the addition of approximately 93 million. Today the annual increase to world population is about 80 million.

Although its growth rate and annual increase are on the decline, world population is expected to continue growing throughout the 21st century. According to the United Nations’ medium variant projection, world population is expected to add nearly 5 billion more people during the current century, reaching close to 11 billion in 2100.

The population projection variants show a wide range of possible population outcomes by the end of the 21st century. The constant variant, which assumes the current fertility rates of countries remain unchanged, has world population nearly tripling to close to 22 billion by 2100. If national fertility rates fall faster than assumed in medium projection variant, world population by the end of the century would be slightly more than 7 billion, or approximately a half billion less than today. Alternatively, if country fertility rates remain slightly higher than assumed in the medium projection variant, world population by 2100 would be nearly 16 billion, or about double the size of today’s world population.

FIGURE 1

World Population Growth by Projection Variant, 1800 – 2100 (in billions)

SOURCE: UNITED NATIONS

DISTRIBUTION

In addition to the unprecedented rapid rate of world population growth during the past century, world population’s distribution across the planet has changed markedly. Besides notable demographic changes at the regional and national levels, the distributions of populations within countries have also been transformed.

During the 20th century the relative demographic standing of Europe changed significantly. Whereas Europe represented about one-quarter of the world’s population in 1900, its percentage declined to about 12% by the close of the 20th century. Today Europe’s population of 748 million is slightly less than 10% of the world’s population and is projected to decline to 712 million by 2050, or 7% of world population (Table 2).

Of the nearly 3 billion increase in world population expected by the close of the century, most of it, 2.9 billion or 97%, will take place in Africa. Africa is followed by Northern America, which increases by 120 million, or 4% of the projected increase. Europe’s population, in contrast, is projected to decrease by 118 million, or a decline of 4%, over the next eight decades (Figure 2.)

Close to 50 European countries are expected to experience population decline over the next three decades. Among those countries whose populations are expected to decline by 10% or more are: Ukraine (19%), Hungary (12%), Poland (12%) and Italy (10%).

In contrast to Europe, the world’s five other major regions experienced rapid growth during the 20th century that is continuing but at a slower pace in the 21st century. The populations of Africa and Latin America and the Caribbean increased six-fold and seven-fold, respectively, during the past century. Also, the populations of Asia, Northern America and Oceania increased approximately four-fold in the 20th century.

Particularly noteworthy is the growth of Africa’s population, which increased from 8% of the world’s population in 1900 to 17% today. That rapid demographic growth is expected to continue, with Africa’s population projected to increase five-fold during the 21st century, reaching 4.3 billion or nearly 40% of the world’s population by the close of the current century.

The future rapid growth of Africa is most evident in a dozen countries whose populations are expected to increase by more than 100% by midcentury. Especially rapid population growth is projected for Niger (161%), Angola (128%), Democratic Republic of the Congo (111%) and Tanzania (110%).

Nearly all the world’s annual population growth by 2050—about 97%—is taking place in developing countries. By far, the developing country contributing most to world population growth during the next three decades is India at 17%. The next six contributing countries are: Nigeria (7%), China (6%), Pakistan (5%), and Ethiopia, Indonesia, and Democratic Republic of Congo (all about 4%).

TABLE 2

World Population by Region and Percentage, 1900 – 2100

SOURCE: UNITED NATIONS

Among developed countries, the top contributing country to world population growth over the coming three decades is the United States at slightly more than 2%. After the U.S., and at considerably lower levels, the next five developed countries contributing to world population growth are: Canada (0.4%), United Kingdom (0.4%) Australia (0.4%), France (0.2%) and Germany (0.2%).

FIGURE 2

Projected Population Increases: 2021–2100

(medium variant, in millions)

SOURCE: UNITED NATIONS

The population ranking of countries has changed remarkably during the past century and is expected to continue changing in the coming decades. In 1950 six of the ten most populous countries in the world were more developed countries, i.e., the United States, Russia, Japan, Germany, the United Kingdom, and Italy. By 2021 only the United States and Russia remain among the top ten.

Moreover, according to the United Nations medium variant population projection, the only more developed country among the top ten most populous by the end of the century is expected to be the United States in fourth place behind India, China, and Nigeria. However, according to the constant variant population projection, which assumes current fertility rates remain unchanged for the remainder of the century, not a single more developed country remains among the top ten most populous. In addition, in 2100 according to the constant projection variant, Nigeria’s population at 2.3 billion takes the number one position, followed by India at 2.0 billion, Democratic Republic of the Congo at 1.6 billion and China at 1 billion. (Figure 3).

The distribution of the world’s population has also changed markedly within countries. Prior to modern times populations largely lived in rural areas. At the start of the 20th century, for example, a minority of the world’s population, 15%, lived in urban areas. That proportion doubled to 30% by 1950 and reached 47% at the century’s close. Today most of the world’s population, 56%, are urban dwellers and that proportion is projected to reach 60% by the end of the current decade.

In addition to urbanization, another striking demographic change that occurred within countries is the emergence of mega-cities, which are agglomerations of 10 million or more inhabitants. In 1950, there were two cities in this category: New York and Tokyo with 12 million and 11 inhabitants, respectively. Today there are 35 mega-cities and most of them, approximately 80%, are in less developed regions.

The world’s largest mega-city is Tokyo with 37 million inhabitants, followed by Delhi with 30 million, Shanghai with 27 million, São Paulo and Mexico City with 22 million, Dhaka and Cairo with 21 million, and Beijing and Mumbai with 20 million. The number of mega-cities is expected to continue increasing, reaching 48 by 2035, with virtually all the increase taking place in less developed regions.

MORTALITY

Perhaps the most welcomed demographic change in world population during the recent past is the decline in mortality levels, including infant, child, and maternal death rates. The decline in mortality rates across every age group has resulted in increased life expectancies for men, women, and children throughout the world.

During the past 70 years, for example, the global infant mortality rate fell from approximately 140 to 40 infant deaths per 1,000 live births. Average life expectancy at birth for the world increased by 28 years, from 45 to 73 years.

Prior to the outbreak of the coronavirus pandemic, the improvements in mortality levels were projected to continue throughout the 21st century, with world population’s average life expectancy at birth projected to reach 77 years by 2050 and nearly 82 years by 2100. Some of the countries expected to have the highest life expectancy at birth of 88 years by midcentury are Italy, Japan, Singapore, Spain, and Switzerland.

Despite the impressive reductions in mortality rates, many countries, particularly those in sub-Saharan Africa, are lagging behind. The impact of diseases, epidemics and low levels of socio-economic development have resulted in life expectancies at birth of many African countries falling well below the world average of 73 years. For example, ten African countries, including Nigeria, Somalia, and South Sudan, have life expectancies at birth less than 60 years, the world average achieved a half century ago.

Before the arrival of the coronavirus pandemic, the five top causes of death were ischemic heart disease (16% of all deaths), stroke (11%), chronic obstructive lung disease (6%), lower respiratory infections (5%) and neonatal conditions (4%). Although the available data on mortality in 2020 are preliminary and believed to be seriously undercounted, the human toll due to the coronavirus pandemic has been substantial and