Electricity Planning

One of the biggest challenges facing some developing countries, with regards to industrialization, is the adverse effects of non-compliance to existing policies. One of such is non-adherence to the provision of future energy infrastructure as projected. Adequate supply of energy infrastructural services is essential for economic development. There have been a series of changes in the energy industry in the past decades, with still more changes expected. These changes impact on the energy infrastructure we use. Input to production is seen as one of the most direct role of energy. This chapter highlights the various effects of poorly implemented energy policies and their corresponding impact on sustainable industrial growth with specific focus on the Nigerian case. It explores how non-compliance to the forecasted energy infrastructure provisions – as contained in the 10-year plan covering 1946–1956 of the then Nigerian Government Electricity Undertaking (NGEU) – led to de-industrialization in Nigeria in the 1970s and beyond. It concludes by highlighting some key elements that could be adopted to re-industrialize Africa.

The following thesis discusses the organization of the electric supply in Kurdistan, Duhok, as well as the effects on an outdated transmission system. Increased competition in the private generation, competition between independent power producers. The necessity for new transmission and distribution technology, as well as further restructuring modifications.

Electricity sector in Iraq has confronted many troubles and fences which have a great effect on the development and upgrading of this sector. Such problems involve the increasing of the electrical load demand after 2003 and appearance of peak loads causing the electricity generation deficit. Various factors have led to this situation, such as the international blockade on Iraq, limited investments, consecutive wars, security issues and many others. This study presents electrical load demand analysis of Baghdad city in Iraq during 2012-2014 for all consumption sectors (residential, commercial, industrial,…etc.). Also the electrical supply and load shedding are analyzed because they are related to the load demand. From analysis the electrical load profile, the increment in the loads demand is very low for 2014 when compared with 2012 and concluded that there are two electrical peak load periods, diurnal peak period in which smaller than the second period in which represented by nightly peak. Seasonally, the winter has no diurnal peak load and its nightly peak load is less than of that in the summery months. While, the electrical supply for Baghdad city is significantly increased for 2014 when compared with 2012, and this due to Iraqi ministry of electricity plans in the last years. As a result, the load shedding is noticeably decreased.

The governance of industrial energy use in recent times has been driven by the quest for greater energy security and sustainable industrial growth. Sustainable use of energy necessitates a rethink in the production, use and governance of energy resources that stimulates and supports transition to a more effective and efficient energy system. However, how do we ensure an effective transition in industrial energy use in the midst of gross energy poverty within a developing country context? This paper explores the motives and drivers of changes in energy use within the industrial sector. Statistical data from published reports, as well as informal interviews of stakeholders in Nigeria’s industrial sector were used. Following analysis of data, four important salient phases (eras) of industrial energy transition in Nigeria’s manufacturing sector was established. These distinct eras are: (1) Grid-dependent era; (2) Self-generation era; (3) Industrial energy outsourcing era; (4) Industrial energy conservation era. The study reveals that: outsourcing of industrial services; cost reduction; and business realignment motives are key drivers of transitions in Nigeria’s industrial
sector. This paper concludes by highlighting the implications of these changes for the future of energy and sustainable industrial growth in Nigeria.

ABSTRAK ANALISIS PENGARUH POLA BEBAN PADA PERENCANAAN PENGEMBANGAN KELISTRIKAN DENGAN OPSI NUKLIR. Beban sistim tenaga listrik berubah setiap kali, dari hari ke hari, dari bulan ke bulan, dan dari tahun ke tahun. Untuk pola tertentu suatu beban ada suatu kombinasi dari pembangkit beban dasar, beban intermediate/antara dan pembangkit beban puncak yang memberikan biaya tahunan minimum. Di dalam perencanaan pengembangan kelistrikan biasanya menggunakan suatu kurva yang menggmbarkan pola beban yang disebut sebagai kurva lama beban (Load Duration Curve, LDC). LDC dapat direpresentasikan sebagai suatu persamaan polinomial pangkat lima. AJ Snyder menemukan bahwa koefisien polinomial ini berhubungan dengan dua parameter, yaitu perbandingan beban dasar dan beban puncak, dan perbandingan antara beban rata-rata dan beban puncak. Dengan menggunakan model Snyder, proyeksi LDC di masa datang dikembangkan dan digunakan di dalam perencanaan pengembangan kelistrikan. Berdasarkan pada metoda biaya terendah, menggunakan program WASP, perencanaan pengembangan kelistrikan untuk sistim Jawa-Madura-Bali dikerjakan. Hasil simulasi menunjukkan bahwa opsi nuklir akan layak ketika rasio beban dasar dan puncak meningkat.

Background
The challenge of lack of access to electricity especially in the rural areas of Nigeria is further compounded by the lack of cogent electrification plans. A fairly reasonable electrification plan should be able to model least-cost electrification technologies to be employed and give an estimate of investments required over a given period of time. The 2012 United Nation’s declaration of ‘International Year of Sustainable Energy for All’ highlights the importance of such studies and innovations, towards attracting funds from various sources for sustainable electrification projects.

Methods
With the aid of a spatial electricity planning model called the ‘Network Planner (NP)’, this study identifies the appropriate least-cost electrification supply mode (grid, mini-grid and/or off-grid) and provides cost estimates for achieving universal energy access in Nigeria by 2030.

Results
Results from this research show that by the end of the 17-year planning period (2013 to 2030), 98% of currently unelectrified communities will be viable for grid expansion, while only 2% will be mini-grid compatible. An estimated total cost of US$34.5 billion investment is required to provide electricity access to a total number of 28.5 million households (125 million people) by 2030. The analysis was carried out for the 36 states of Nigeria as well as the entire country, using data from the 774 local government areas (LGAs) of Nigeria.

Conclusions
This paper provides the foundation for the Nigerian Rural Electrification Agency (NREA) to develop an electrification plan as well as involve all stakeholders in carrying out direct surveys towards generating a database for rural electrification status in Nigeria

The usefulness of Geographical Information System GIS, in the electric distribution network in some countries of the world is appreciated in the literatures. This is viewed among others in the capacity of the tool to solve the spatial planning problem of electric distribution network that is seemingly intractable. Similarly, its potentialities for production of accurate updated information database about any spatial feature make this system become imperative as panacea. Absence of adequate information database had been one of the major problems hindering effective electricity service delivery before and after privatisation in Nigeria. The aim of this paper is to highlight the GIS application as a solution to the poor electricity service delivery being experienced in the country. Objectively, the paper asserts the absence of inadequate electric facilities’ distribution information database and the need for a specific technique to stand in the gap from the literature. Content analysis of some authors contribution on this issue form the methodology adopted in this paper. Finally, the paper suggests the application of GIS method as a veritable tool to cure problem of spatial distribution network by mapping the consumers to corresponding electric facility network with reference to the transformer, pole, wire and cable, substation, feeder switches and auto circuit breaker. This would not only enhance availability of accurate information database but would guarantee proper control, easy monitoring, appropriate maintenance and eventual effective service delivery even under privatization.

Addressing global challenges, such as climate change and other related environmental concerns requires a rethink in the organization of production and consumption processes. This also includes electricity production and consumption. The need for greater competitiveness in the provision of critical infrastructure (including electricity) is also a challenge. This has led to the liberalization of many electricity markets across the world. In this paper, following an exploratory study of nine countries across Africa, Asia and South America, the common features that characterize the electricity market liberalization process, as well as the key drivers of electricity sector reforms across the world, were established. These features were then used to highlight the main challenges of the Nigerian electricity sector and to provide an explanation of the key milestones that characterized Nigeria's electricity sector liberalization process (2001 – 2017). The paper further discusses five possible future models by which most electricity supply markets will be organized in the future. It concludes by proposing a new model for the organization of the Nigerian electricity industry that would not only aid in addressing the current electricity deficit challenge, but also pave the way for the creation of a market structure that can drive Nigeria towards a secure energy future.

The long-term electric power demand forecasting is
based on a set of basic premises that includes the macroeconomic
scenarios, the growth of the population and of the number of
households. The latter is the main determinant to calculate the
number of residential customers served by the utilities. This paper
presents the headship rate method and its projections for the
number of households in Brazil for the years 2010 and 2020. These
projections are based on the long term forecasting of the age
pyramid of the Brazilian population provided by the Brazilian
Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE). In order to forecast
the number of residential customers in the next ten years, the
projections for the number of households are combined with the
goals established by the Brazilian Electricity Regulatory Agency
(ANEEL) for universalization access to electricity.

The state of Karnataka in India faces a shortfall in its electricity-generating capacity, which is higher during peak demand periods. To remedy this, the government has planned a large expansion of baseload capacity, mainly in the form of large coal based thermal power plants. In the study described here, we calculate the per-kilowatt hour costs of various supply side options at different plant load factors, and find that the current plans for supply expansion via large base-load generation plants is at odds with the objective of meeting demand shortfall at lowest cost. We estimate a comparable kilowatt hour cost of energy efficiency measures, and estimate their potential via a sector-wise analysis. A lowest cost planning exercise suggests that the increase in demand over the next decade can be met by implementing energy efficiency measures, expanding renewable sources of power to their capacity, and implementing the thermal power plants already contracted. Therefore it is not necessary to commission any new large coal based thermal plants during the next decade or more.

Ghana's 1992 Constitution is the penultimate legal reference for decision making in the energy sector. In addition, a number of laws, policies and guidelines have been developed to manage activities within the sector. These notwithstanding, it has been recognized that power relations between state institutions is the principal influence on decision making in the energy sector of most developing countries. To this end, we examine decision making in the energy sector through the application of political settlement framework developed by Mushtaq H. Khan. We find that the energy sector is ineffective in implementing and enforcing decisions taken due to the uneven distribution of power across institutions. In addition, alternative decision-making tools such as long-run marginal cost are sometimes utilized. We also find that though tariff decision is based on economic factors such as the exchange rate, cost of production, service charges, levies among others, there are instances where premium has been placed on a balance between electoral fortunes and economic realities. This practice often disregards energy sector plans, limits transparency and accountability in the tariff determination process and suspends the automatic adjustment formula. This has contributed to needless investments which have resulted in the estimated energy sector (electricity and gas) debt of more than $2.8 billion as of the December, 2019. We recommend continuous expansion and distribution of power among the large number of organizations including a space for civil society organizations to hold duty bearers accountable in the energy sector to promote effective delivery of services sustain the development of the sector.

Este artigo apresenta um estudo de caso onde a modelagem estrutural de séries temporais é aplicada na série mensal do consumo de eletricidade. Os modelos estruturais fazem uso da decomposição de uma série temporal em suas componentes não observáveis de tendência, sazonalidade, cíclica e irregular, oferecendo uma descrição dos traços estilizados da série o que possibilita analisar mudanças de tendência e alterações no padrão sazonal ou no comportamento cíclico. Palavras-chave : Previsão do consumo de energia elétrica, Modelos Estruturais

The state of Karnataka in India faces a shortfall in its electricity-generating capacity, which is higher during peak demand periods. To remedy this, the government has planned a large expansion of baseload capacity, mainly in the form of large coal based thermal power plants. In the study described here, we calculate the per-kilowatt hour costs of various supply side options at different plant load factors, and find that the current plans for supply expansion via large base-load generation plants is at odds with the objective of meeting demand shortfall at lowest cost. We estimate a comparable kilowatt hour cost of energy efficiency measures, and estimate their potential via a sector-wise analysis. A lowest cost planning exercise suggests that the increase in demand over the next decade can be met by implementing energy efficiency measures, expanding renewable sources of power to their capacity, and implementing the thermal power plants already contracted. Therefore it is not necessary to commission any new large coal based thermal plants during the next decade or more.

Neste artigo é analisada a dinâmica do consumo de energia elétrica na classe residencial, a partir de 1980. A
análise foi conduzida por meio de modelos de decomposição que expressam a evolução do consumo em função
de três variáveis explicativas: a intensidade do consumo das unidades consumidoras, a estrutura de consumo por
faixa e a base de mercado. Nesta análise é sublinhado o ano de 2003, ano em que se encerra a retomada do
consumo após o racionamento, isto é, quando este e suas variáveis explicativas voltam a ter as correlações com o
mesmo sinal como constatado após 1994. Em seguida foi estimada, por meio de um modelo de programação
matemática, a estrutura de consumo e de consumidores por faixa de renda para 2003, método que concilia a ótica
das concessionárias com a ótica das famílias. O conjunto dos resultados evidencia uma mudança na dinâmica do
consumo de eletricidade na classe residencial, que data do fim das altas taxas de inflação. A atual dinâmica do
consumo está associada à recuperação da renda familiar e este entendimento juntamente com os resultados
deste trabalho permitiram elaborar os modelos e as projeções de demanda da classe residencial para o
CCPE/CTEM no ciclo de planejamento de 2004.

The household income distribution is an important explanatory variable of the residential
electricity consumption. This paper specifies a proportional odds model and a proportional
hazard model to forecast the household share in each income class. The models are applied on an
average income scenario and the projections for household income distribution are evaluated by
income inequality indices.

Background: The challenge of lack of access to electricity especially in the rural areas of Nigeria is further compounded by the lack of cogent electrification plans. A fairly reasonable electrification plan should be able to model least-cost electrification technologies to be employed and give an estimate of investments required over a given period of time. The 2012 United Nation's declaration of 'International Year of Sustainable Energy for All' highlights the importance of such studies and innovations, towards attracting funds from various sources for sustainable electrification projects. Methods: With the aid of a spatial electricity planning model called the 'Network Planner (NP)', this study identifies the appropriate least-cost electrification supply mode (grid, mini-grid and/or off-grid) and provides cost estimates for achieving universal energy access in Nigeria by 2030. Results: Results from this research show that by the end of the 17-year planning period (2013 to 2030), 98% of currently unelectrified communities will be viable for grid expansion, while only 2% will be mini-grid compatible. An estimated total cost of US$34.5 billion investment is required to provide electricity access to a total number of 28.5 million households (125 million people) by 2030. The analysis was carried out for the 36 states of Nigeria as well as the entire country, using data from the 774 local government areas (LGAs) of Nigeria. Conclusions: This paper provides the foundation for the Nigerian Rural Electrification Agency (NREA) to develop an electrification plan as well as involve all stakeholders in carrying out direct surveys towards generating a database for rural electrification status in Nigeria.

Among the most urgent problems are the level and the quality of life. One of the reasons is the financial economic crisis of 2008-2010, which brought a deep decline in the population’s level and quality of life. Moreover, currently, one of the main problems is the energy consumption costs. Our well-being depends on the correct social policy, which, in turn, depends on whether the information is sufficient, and whether it fully shows the problems in today's society. The direction and pace of further reform in the country and therefore ultimately political and, consequently, economic and social stability depend on solving the life’s level and quality problems. In this research we focus on the idea of quality of life, its relationship with GDP per capita and assessment based on energy consumption costs. The research is aimed at understand how energy saving and effective usage can decrease the costs and control overall use of latter, which in turn will have a positive effect in People’s quality of life.

Este artigo apresenta um estudo de caso onde a modelagem estrutural de séries temporais é aplicada na série mensal do consumo de eletricidade. Os modelos estruturais fazem uso da decomposição de uma série temporal em suas componentes não observáveis de tendência, sazonalidade, cíclica e irregular, oferecendo uma descrição dos traços estilizados da série o que possibilita analisar mudanças de tendência e alterações no padrão sazonal ou no comportamento cíclico.

Addressing global challenges, such as climate change and other related environmental concerns, requires a rethink in the organization of production and consumption processes. This also includes electricity production and consumption. The need for greater competitiveness in the provision of critical infrastructure (including electricity) is also a challenge. This has led to the liberalization of many electricity markets across the world. In this paper, following an exploratory study of nine countries across Africa, Asia, and South America, the common features that characterize the electricity market liberalization process, as well as the key drivers of electricity sector reforms across the world, were established. These features were then used to highlight the main challenges of the Nigerian electricity sector and to provide an explanation of the key milestones that characterize the Nigeria's electricity sector liberalization process (20012017). This paper further discusses ve ...

h i g h l i g h t s Hierarchical indicator framework for sustainability assessment of electricity system. Prioritized and quantified 85 indicators under four dimensions of sustainability. Evaluated electricity system sustainability indices of India with benchmark values. National electricity system sustainability index (NESSI) for India is 0.48. A hypothetical NESSI benchmark was developed for assessing electricity systems.

This dissertation analyses the politics of electricity planning in South Africa by reviewing the activities and issues advocated by two dominant coalitions seeking to influence electricity planning in South Africa (SA) in the period June 2010 to June 2015. There are two policy events that are the focus of the research: the Integrated Resource Plan of 2010 (IRP2010), and its 2013 update report. The research is mainly concerned with the political influence exerted by the identified advocacy coalitions and the political context they acted within, during the period under review.

The state of Karnataka in India faces a shortfall in its electricity-generating capacity, which is higher during peak demand periods. To remedy this, the government has planned a large expansion of baseload capacity, mainly in the form of large coal based thermal power plants. In the study described here, we calculate the per-kilowatt hour costs of various supply side options at different plant load factors, and find that the current plans for supply expansion via large base-load generation plants is at odds with the objective of meeting demand shortfall at lowest cost. We estimate a comparable kilowatt hour cost of energy efficiency measures, and estimate their potential via a sector-wise analysis. A lowest cost planning exercise suggests that the increase in demand over the next decade can be met by implementing energy efficiency measures, expanding renewable sources of power to their capacity, and implementing the thermal power plants already contracted. Therefore it is not necessary to commission any new large coal based thermal plants during the next decade or more.