Energy policy recommendations for Pakistan

Energy Strategy for Pakistan Muhammad Ali Qaiser, 26561999 Regulatory Framework Pakista ’s e erg se tor has traditio all ministerial departments [1]: ee a aged at the federatio le el three ajor 1. Ministry for Water and Power, which looks after electricity generation 2. Ministry for Petroleum and Natural Resources, which supervises fossil fuels 3. Ministry of Planning and Development, which proposes development schemes Historically, the split of energy policy in this manner has led to lack of coordination in policy measures, or half-hearted attempts to give a concerted national direction to the energy problem [2]. Recommendation 1: Unify all governmental departments related to energy aspects under one federal ministry. This includes all semi-state corporations running energy sector, such as: 1. Oil and Gas Development Company Limited (OGDCL), which engages in exploration and extraction rights 2. Water and Power Development Authority (WAPDA), which owns all hydel-power dams 3. National Transmission and Dispatch Company (NTDC), which regulates power transmission and consumer distribution 4. Sui Northern Gas Pipeline Limited (SNGPL), which owns rights to northern gas extraction 5. Sui Southern Gas Pipeline Limited (SSGPL), which owns rights to southern gas extraction 6. Distri utio Co pa ies ele tri al DISCO’s , hi h a age distri utio at distri t le el 7. Private Power and Infrastructure Board (PPIB), which offers a joint forum to private sector power stations that are mainly thermal in nature 8. Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission (PAEC), which researches and develops nuclear power both for military and civil purposes 9. Alternate Energy Development Board (AEDB), which oversees vision for renewable sector Another problem that is fairly debated in public is the influence of government on what should be otherwise independent energy regulators of the country, two major ones being: 1. National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (NEPRA) 2. Oil and Gas Regulatory Authority (OGRA) Recommendation 2: Separation of regulatory framework from political influence. This can only be ensured if the appointment of regulator staff and their operational budget are not made subject to governmental approvals The third major policy problem is the one that was recently introduced in the year 2010, in form of the eighteenth constitutional amendment [3], by the federation of Pakistan. Amongst other things, it has devolved the control of energy policy from national to provincial level. In light of acute electricity shortage crisis that the country is currently facing [4], which had been anticipated through rapid urban and industrial growth but not prevented due to poor policy planning during de ades of ’s a d ’s, it a e o luded that the urre t apa it le el or politi al ill of state machinery is not sufficient for handling energy crisis in a concerted manner at the national level. With this in mind, it seems even unlikelier that the problem can be overcome by independent measure taken in a disconcerted manner by provinces, which would naturally have less competence and resource at their disposal. Recommendation 3: Reversal of energy devolution back to the national level. Brief History of Energy Development Pakistan was formed as a result of partition of India in 1947, after the colonial British power seceded independence. The eastern wing of this new country further splintered away as Bangladesh in 1971, and the western wing remained as what is now known as Pakistan. Soon after its birth, Pakistan catered to its growing energ de a ds duri g de ades of ’s a d ’s o stru tio of t o ajor h del po er proje ts ith assista e of World Ba k; these ere Mangla dam at USD 1.85 billion (successive capacity of 1,000 MW added till AD 1993) on Jhelum river and Tarbela dam1 at USD 6.59 billion (successive capacity of 3,487 MW till AD 1993) on Indus river, both owned by the state. Drive for hydel projects continued at a lower pace since then, and stands at installed 6,612 MW only in 2013 AD [5]. Siltation in these reservoirs is reducing their capacity as well. As i dustrializatio a ross de ades of ’s a d ’s rose, fo us to u lear po er as see ; however this resulted mainly in military achievement, and the power output from nuclear plants stands only at 725 MW currently [6]. Further e pa sio to po er se tor as pla ed i ’s i form of thermal stations, mainly run on oil or gas; however, political wrangling meant a reversal of this planning, leading to the consequence that till date (2013) installed capacity of 6,870 MW in private sector [7] and 4,829 MW in public sector could be achieved [8]. 1 Which at the time was the largest earth-filled reservoir in the world At present, due to deteriorating economic situation, the installed capacity of power plants has been severely de-rated due to non-recovery of payments and non-availability of fossil fuels, causing regular load-shedding in the country [4]. The transmission and distribution infrastructure of Pakistan is also badly outdated, causing transmission losses of up to 30% [9]. Energy Mix of Pakistan Pakistan has a very simplistic energy mix compared to other developing countries, and indeed developed ones; this is demonstrated by statistical benchmarking of fuel sources that generate electricity for the other countries in this project, as well as Germany as an advanced example. The numbers were sourced from International Energy Agency [10] and reprocessed by further analysis into table below (see Table 1). It may well be seen that hile Chi a, Pakista ’s geographi al neighbour, presents a very diverse picture in terms of electricity fuels, Pakistan has no contribution from renewable sources at national level; instead, a major share of electricity comes from fossil fuels (gas and oil). On the brighter side however, it may be noted that the country makes extensive use of its river resources to generate hydel power; also compared to other countries, it uses virtually no coal for electricity production despite 175 billion tonnes reserves being discovered in the southernmost province [11]. Amongst reasons for lack of coal use in generation are political infighting and absence of investors for deep mining that is required [9]. The coal is also high in sulphur content, and the theme being explored by national scientists is coal gasification instead of direct burning [12]. 2011 Pakistan Turkey Indonesia China UK Germany Electricity 95,258 229,393 182,384 4,715,716 367,802 605,835 GWh/year of which Coal < 1% 29% 44% 79% 30% 45% Oil 35% < 1% 23% < 1% 1% 1% Gas 29% 45% 20% 2% 40% 14% Biofuels < 1% < 1% 1% 3% 5% Waste < 1% < 1% 1% 2% Nuclear 6% 2% 19% 18% Hydro 30% 23% 7% 15% 2% 4% Geothermal < 1% 5% < 1% < 1% PV < 1% < 1% < 1% 3% CSP < 1% Wind 2% 1% 4% 8% Tidal < 1% Table 1 Comparison of Pakistan’s Electricity Fuel Sources with other Countries, 2011 [IEA] As well, the new political regimes of country are pursuing nuclear technology for electrical generation, and the share of nuclear in the electricity mix has grown over past 2 decades from 0 to 6% [10] (see Figure 1 Electricity of Pakistan by fuel source, 2011 [IEA]Figure 1). Hydro 30% Oil 35% Nuclear 6% As of November 2013, the country has 3 nuclear power generation plants of water reactor type, with installed capacity of 724 MW2, owned by PAEC3 [6] and the government is looking for substantial further expansion of this programme with Chinese cooperation. Gas 29% Figure 1 Electricity of Pakistan by fuel source, 2011 [IEA] Recommendation 4: Simulation of French model by setting nuclear as main mode of electricity production during 21st century. This will help prevent inclination of base-load conversion to more fossil fuels as the country expands its power generation policy to diverse sources. The fact that its military nuclear programme is already quite advanced and well-guarded means that there is enough technical experience in the country to handle such a transition [13]. Treaties like IAEA4 and Euratom5 are already progressing the world over to ensure future safety of construction, operations, recovery and waste disposal. A high focus of next generation reactors is concentrated on fast-breed reactors and fusion processes. When achieved, it will partially regenerate uranium from plutonium, and open up vast new sources of nuclear fuel, raising reserves from 100 years to 3,000 years [14]. In the face of such clear nuclear future, Pakistan may find it in our assessment, really beneficial to electrically, economically and environmentally pursue a nuclear base-load path while it experiments to phase out fossil fuels by other renewable sources. On the other hand, it will be a difficult case to present to the government, to not tap into coal for meeting future energy needs, as currently pursuit in this matter has already started by active solicitation of interested mining companies and power generation venture capitalists [15]. To encourage potential investors, the provincial government in collaboration with the centre has already provided connectivity to remote coal field by optical fibre, air strip, rail line and water 2 Karachi 1, Chashma 1, Chashma 2 Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission 4 International Atomic Energy Agency 5 Under European Commission 3 supply. All this is being done at a time when international authorities are promoting coal by hailing its reserves as having largest R/P6 ratio of any fossil fuel, able to meet 109 years of global production [16]. Recommendation 5: Aggressive exploration of partnership possibilities with companies in the world that are pursuing coal gasification techniques. This means that coal can be used not as a direct fossil fuel but as a precursor to clean hydrogen economy of the future. One such example is SCS Energy [17], which is retrofitting a coal generation power plant to allow hydrogen combustion with carbon sequestration, rather than direct fossil burning. If the progression of TPES sources is examined over time for Pakistan (see Error! Reference source not found.), a picture of unplanned expedience emerges [10]. Whereas output from the only true renewable in perspective (hydro) has remained fairly plateau, the use of oil and gas have nearly doubled over two decades from 1991 to 2011. In addition, comparing with Figure 1 shows that none of the biofuel/waste listed as major source of TPES is used for electricity generation. A closer look at the Pakistani society reveals that over half (64% as of 2011) of its population inhabits agrarian, rural lands [18] where gas or electricity supply is not reliable. The choice mode of domestic cooking is dried cow dung, and it is this which composes the biofuel/waste section of IEA statistics. 400,000 350,000 300,000 GWh 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 - 1991 2001 2011 Also, unlike western countries, heating is not a major issue for a tropical country like Pakistan, where most of the time the climate is warm (annual average range of 20 to 35oC) [19]. Instead, energy is required to achieve cooling, principally electricity for air-conditioning. Any heat requirements during brief Figure 2 TPES of Pakistan by fuel source over two decades [IEA] winter months are therefore domestically fulfilled by gas heaters in urban areas and manure heating in rural. During recent years, urban dwellers have started to experiment with insulated 6 Reserve to Production walls when constructing new homes; however, this measure is purely voluntary at the moment and helps conserve building temperatures, reducing the need for air cooling. Recommendation 6: Introduce building codes that necessitate the use of double-layered insulated walls. Also noteworthy is the stark increase in petroleum and gas, which are respectively due to a rise in privately owned cars and expansion of gas network for domestic use as well as in transport sector as CNG7 refilling stations [20]. By adjustment of energy balances presented by IEA [10], it is calculated by the author that about 82% of oil use in Pakistan goes into the transport sector; compare this with only 57% in a booming economy like China. In light of the foregoing evaluation, further suggestions to the Pakistani government would be: Recommendation 7: Harness the potential of dried cow dung (established tradition) combined with institutionalized collection of municipal waste for power generation by incineration. Recommendation 8: Roll back of CNG for transport sector to avoid early depletion. Focus instead should be on provision to industry and power sector whilst phase-out from fossil fuels is underway during the 21st century. Recommendation 9: Exploration of cultivating sugarcane or other crops for ethanol and biofuels should be undertaken forthwith to provide alternatives to transport sector. Recommendation 10: Increase of quantity and quality of public transport systems in urban areas. This should be accompanied by high taxes on privately owned cars to promote a culture of mass transit. Recommendation 11: Introduction of hybrid electric cars This measure shall assist as a signal to commence phase-out of fossil fuel dependency; it will however only be feasible as fuel cells, lighter construction and cleaner generation gain currency elsewhere in the developed world. Further expansion of our analysis of the current energy trajectory of Pakistan could be done to yield economic comparisons with a set of countries that are ranked at par or above the country in terms of development index. For this purpose, World Bank indicators database was examined to sift data related to energy development for the same set of countries as Table 1. Looking at GDP values, Indonesia and Turkey could relate to Pakistan as peers (albeit on the rise), whereas UK, Germany and China would seem to be developmental end goals. The results are tabulated here Table 2 , and graphically displayed after fractional normalization of data with Pakistan as base (see Error! Reference source not found.). 7 Compressed natural gas It can clearly observed that while it ranks high in population level and population density, its total electricity production is lowest even to the point of being negligible compared to more advanced economies. This coupled with high population and growing urbanization leads to a very low energy intensity. 2011 Pakistan Turkey Indonesia China UK Germany Population Pop Density Urban Growth million per sq. km % annual 176 229 2.6% 73 95 2.6% 244 135 2.7% 1,344 144 3.0% 63 259 0.9% 82 235 0.3% Area TPES Fossil Electricity Electricity GDP/Energy sq. km % of total kWh/capita TWh/year GDP $/ktoe 796,100 61% 449 95 5.7 783,560 90% 2,709 229 11.2 1,904,570 66% 680 182 5.4 9,600,001 88% 3,298 4,716 4.1 243,610 86% 5,516 365 11.9 357,127 80% 7,081 602 10.4 Table 2 Energy development indicators comparison for Pakistan, 2011 [WB] 18 On the flip-side, its large land area and lower fossil fraction means there is greater potential for renewables than countries like Germany, which may well be nearing the achievement of available limitations. Lastly, it is to be noted that energy efficiency by GDP (parity $ per ktoe consumed) is very low for Pakistan; its inability to convert energy into product value seems to point to wastages. Indeed, electricity theft and transmission losses are a hotly debated issue there [9]. 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Pop Density Pakistan Electricity Turkey Indonesia TPES Fossil China UK GDP/Energy Germany Figure 3 Energy indicator comparisons (unit-less) with Pakistan as base, 2011 [WB] Recommendation 12: Steps for long term elimination of electricity theft, transmission losses and unpaid consumer bills. The mass of unpaid debt in this regard has been touching $ 4.5 million during 2013, leading to intermittent closure of power generation facilities with daily shortfalls of up to 7,000 MW [21]). This will be a cornerstone in phase-out of fossil fuels, as surplus energy is unreliable in case of non-dispatchable technologies. To prepare for any shift in the future towards a more diverse mix of energy, with input from renewable sources, would immediately require work on the massive transmission system of the ou tr ’s grid. Recommendation 13: Overhauling of old equipment and consultative studies for determining the integration possibilities of smart grid in future. Energy Projections for Pakistan From Figure 4 [18], it can be observed that energy use in Pakistan climbed steadily over the past decades, nearly increasing five-fold since 1980, before levelling off during the last 5 years. As has been earlier pointed out, this plateau is a false indicator in that energy demand has not flattened; instead the supply capacity of the country has levelled out, causing an energy crisis. 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 1980 1990 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Electricity production (TWh) Energy use (Mtoe) Figure 4 Energy and electricity utility trends of Pakistan [WB] This oupled ith the fa t that Pakista ’s populatio o ti ues to gro at a a ual rate of a out 1.6% [18], with an urbanization increment of similar factor, means that energy demand will be on the rise in coming decades. Indigenous research shows that this demand is set to double in 2015 compared to 2009 [22] instead of reduction targets being pursued elsewhere in the world, such as 20-20-20 directive of EU member states [23]. If the country is to improve its energy intensity per capita (see Table 2), measures on efficiency and sustainability are required. A major social drawback to any long-term energy planning would be public awareness. Literacy rates being low at 55% in Pakistan [18], general population is also uneducated to concepts of energy conservation. Recommendation 14: Launch public awareness campaign to promote habits on energy conservation in daily domestic and professional environments. Renewable Energy Potential: Wind According to AEDB8 in conjunction with NREL9, Pakista ’s oast areas arr a e elle t i d generation potential (see Figure 5) of up to 400 W/m2 [24]. A coastal corridor in southern province alone has potential to generator 60,000 MW. This compares favorably with year 2013 peak demand of 22,213 MW in the country, as well as project peak demand of 29,476 MW by the year 2030 [25]. This value of peak demand shall be considered as base line for subsequent analysis, with the understanding that foregoing recommendations if implemented, will cause improvement in energy efficiency and control soaring demand. Even if the country manages to capture a third of the above wind potential at 20,000 MWp, it would have come a long way in solving its energy demands without fossil fuels. In addition, the awarded tariffs to some start-up projects are quite comparable internationally, at average of $ 0.12/kWh [26] . Consider this against € . /kWh i Ger a , for example [27]. Recommendation 15: Install at least 20,000 MW rated wind turbines in a gradual manner, by the end of 21st century 8 9 Alternate Energy Development Board, Pakistan National Renewable Energy Laboratory, USA Figure 5: Wind map of Pakistan [AEDB] Renewable Energy Potential: Solar According to NREL (see Figure 6), Pakistan receives abundant solar irradiation throughout [28], at an average of 6 kWh/m2/day. This ranks three-fold higher than Germany (2.73 kWh/m2/day), which has targeted installed capacity of 52 GW by the year 2030 [29]. Therefore, even if Pakistan aims to produce solar installations double the wind installations as suggested above, it would add 40,000 MWp to the grid, and therefore make a major dent in the energy mix. Recommendation 16: Install at least 40,000 MW rated solar systems (photovoltaic or concentrated thermal) in a gradual manner, by end of 21st century Figure 6: Solar map of Pakistan [NREL] Renewable Energy Potential: Biomass According to World Bank data [18], Pakistan is a substantial producer of combustible renewables that include chiefly cow manure but also agricultural residues and urban waste (see Figure 7). The country in fact ranks at 9th position in terms of biomass production [30]. Since the country has large crop outputs, and as noted earlier, the rise of urbanization means that this supply will continue to grow. An analysis of various types of biomasses produced in the country leads to an interpretative compilation in the form of Table 3 [31]. By converting fuel densities of various materials put out as waste, a sum of 50,110 GWh annual energy supply is obtained. Assuming a load factor of 0.7 [25], we arrive at a potential installed capacity of 8,172 MW as follows10: 10 Parameters used: LF=0.7; Days/year=365, Hours/day=24 ��ℎ = ���� ⁄ , × × . ��ℎ = , ���� = . ��� MWp Equation 1: Conversion of GWh/year to MWp Figure 7: Annual biomass & waste production (toe) [WB] Type Sugarcane trash Cotton sticks Animal manure Municipal waste Mass (tonnes) 5,752,800 1,474,693 368,434,650 7,120,000 Conversion Factor (tonnes/GWh) 607 480 15,576 512 Total Energy (GWh) 9,477 3,072 23,654 13,906 50,110 Table 3: Pakistan's biomass potential, 2011 [Bioenergy Consult] Recommendation 17: Install at least 10,000 MW rated biomass incineration plants in a gradual manner, by end of 21st century Renewable Energy Potential: Hydel Power According to various in-country estimates, the total available capacity of hydroelectric generation in Pakistan is between 60,000 MW [32] and 100,000 MW [33]. This is natural as the country is endowed with several major rivers that originate in the Himalayan glaciers. Consequently, nearly all of the hydro-power potential lies in the northern regions of the country, as shown from World Food Programme map [34] in Figure 8. However only 11% of this capacity has so far been harnessed (at 6,720 MW installations), spread across 3 major dams11 (above 1000 MW), 2 medium dams12 (above 100 MW) and over 30 small dams or barrages (below 100 MW). Figure 8: Dams and barrages of northern Pakistan [WFP] It would be easily achievable by conventional benchmarking, to utilize another 30% of the available hydro potential over time, bringing the total installed capacity to 40,000 MW. Recommendation 18: Install at least 40,000 MW rated hydel generation plants, by end of 21st century 11 12 Tarbela, Mangla, Ghazi-Brotha Warsak, Chashma Sustainability Modelling In light of the above analysis of major renewable resources that exist in Pakistan, we make following targets recommendation in a phase-wise manner, to enable the country to push out fossil fuel dependency end of 21st century. Recommendation 19: Formulate energy transition from fossil to sustainable sources according to the phase-wise model presented here. This modelling is carried out by a sequence of following steps: Determination of energy growth factor Statement of modelling parameters Projection of adjusted energy mix Figure 9: Activity sequence for forecast modelling Step 1: As a precursor, we establish the factor by which energy consumption rises in developing countries until it levels out, at which point energy efficiency policies, measures and public awareness kicks in to bring the energy picture under control. For this purpose, primary energy (TPES) and electricity generation are plotted using World Bank database [18], with UK and Germany as examples from the period 1960 till 2011 (see Figure 10). It is seen that energy consumption rises from 1960 to 1990, where it starts to settle down. This is perhaps because these 3 decades were when these countries were on a swift recovery path after World War 2. The average rate of growth is then calculated using percentage increments per decade during this period, which works out to 141% per decade during development (see Table 4) i.e. a factor of 1.4. Energy Indicator UK TPES (Mtoe) Germany TPES (Mtoe) UK Power (TWh) Germany Power (TWh) Average Change (%) 1960 1970 Decade Change 159 205 129% 142 302 212% 139 248 179% 118 309 262% 141% per decade 1980 198 357 284 466 Decade Change 97% 118% 115% 151% 1990 206 351 318 548 Table 4: Average increment of energy per decade during development phase Decade Change 104% 98% 112% 117% 700 350 600 Mtoe (TPES) 300 500 250 400 200 300 150 200 100 TWh (Electricity) 400 100 50 0 0 1960 1965 1970 UK TPES 1975 1980 1985 Germany TPES 1990 1995 2000 UK Power 2005 2010 Germany Power Figure 10: Energy and electricity production from 1960 onwards, for UK and Germany Step 2: The framework of modelling parameters is now laid out, with assumptions and calculation format stated clearly. This is as listed here:     Energy mix sources shall be de-fossilized progressively while introducing a mix of most suita le sustai a le te h ologies as e a i ed i o te t of Pakista ’s pote tial earlier; The 21st century shall be divided into 3 time periods for easier understanding of progressive targets; these periods are o Phase 1 – 2011 to 202413 o Phase 2 – 2025 to 2049 o Phase 3 – 2050 to 2100; Energy growth factor calculated in Step 1 above will be applied from base year up to end of Phase 2 (year 2050), after which point it is assumed that energy use levels out as Pakistan sets in efficiency measures comparable to European countries; Parameters for fossil cut and renewable ramp-up are to be specified in Excel sheet as percent increment/decrement, for each phase compared to the previous phase. These shall be adjusted by trial and error until a sustainable and feasible picture emerges (with reference to installed capacities projected as recommendations earlier in the report). These parameters are chiefly: o Biomass/waste ramp-up increment o Nuclear ramp-up increment o Hydro power ramp-up increment E e though the ear of this report’s pu li atio is this is why it is being taken as base year 13 , the data a aila le fro WB a d IEA is up to o l ;     o Other renewables ramp-up increment (biofuel, wind, solar, tidal) o Fossil decrement; Since renewables currently form no part of Pakista ’s e erg i , their proje tio for start of Phase 2 will be set according to following ration: o Biofuel a d i d a hie e sa e e erg use le els as oal’s alue i o Solar is set to ha e dou le e erg apa it as i d; this is si ilar to Ger a ’s situation, where solar capacity growth is nearly double that of wind [29] o Tidal is given a growth rate half that of wind, as it is expensive and experimental; Energy requirement or supply shall be quantified in GWh/year; Imaginary peak installed capacity (MWp) for energy sources is to be calculated by using a factor of 1 GWh = 0.1631 MW (see Equation 1); this uses a load factor of 0.7 [25]; As recommended earlier, smart grid systems in Pakistan will need parallel development. Step 3: The final modelling was performed in Excel by tuning of above parameters. The final data-set used for assumptions (Table 5), and the model outcome are presented below. Note that ramp parameters for each phase are with respect to previous phase, not base year 2011. Ramp Parameter Type Biomass/waste increment Other Renewables increment Nuclear increment Hydro increment Fossil decrement Phase 1 115% 125% 150% 170% 90% Phase 2 150% 250% 270% 300% 40% Phase 3 120% 350% 230% 150% 0% Other Parameters Energy growth factor Growth factor applied till GWh/year to MWp factor Solar growth vs. wind Tidal growth vs. wind Value 141% per decade Year 2050 0.1631 x 2.0 x 0.5 Table 5: Final data-set used for energy strategy modelling Energy Source TPES 2011 Value GWh/year 47,613 239,892 313,359 Mix % 5% 24% 32% Value GWh/year 42,852 215,903 282,023 Nuclear Hydro Waste/Biomass Transport Biofuel Wind Solar (PV + CSP) 15,956 28,517 341,399 - 2% 3% 35% 0% 0% 0% 23,935 48,478 392,608 42,852 42,852 85,704 2% 4% 33% 4% 4% 7% Tidal Achieved Total Projected TPES Total 986,736 0% 21,426 1,198,633 1,391,297 2% Coal Petroleum Natural Gas 2025 Mix Installation % MWp 4% 18% 24% Value GWh/year 17,141 86,361 112,809 2050 Mix % 1% 6% 8% 3,903 7,906 64,026 6,988 6,988 13,976 64,623 145,435 588,913 107,130 107,130 214,259 4% 10% 39% 7% 7% 14% 3,494 53,565 1,497,366 2,329,424 4% - 2100 Mix % 0% 0% 0% 10,539 23,717 96,039 17,471 17,471 34,941 148,633 218,153 706,695 374,954 374,954 749,908 5% 8% 26% 14% 14% 27% 24,239 35,576 115,247 61,147 61,147 122,294 8,735 187,477 2,760,775 2,329,424 7% 30,574 Installation MWp Table 6: Outcome of sustainable strategy forecast modelling Value GWh/year Installation MWp According to the above strategy, by the year 2100, the new energy mix would have phased out fossil fuels (Figure 11) and at the same time would provide surplus energy. This is in line with energy security of developed countries such as the UK. Tidal 7% Nuclear 5% Hydro 8% Solar (PV + CSP) 27% Wind 14% Waste/Biomass 26% Transport Biofuel 13% Figure 11: Adjusted energy mix of Pakistan, TPES 2100 Finally, the impact of this strategy on energy supply costs can be examined14. For this purpose, levelized15 cost of generation [35] is considered for various sources as shown below, and a weighted average is calculated according to the proposed energy mix modelled in Table 616. Source Nuclear Biomass Wind Solar PV Hydro Levelized $/kWh GWh/year (2100) 0.108 148,633 0.111 706,695 0.087 374,954 0.144 122,294 0.090 218,153 Total 1,570,730 Average Cost $/kWh 0.105 Prorated Mix % 9% 45% 24% 8% 14% Table 7: Average cost of energy supply for Pakistan at present dollar value, by year 2100 The result of 10.5 US cents/kWh is quite competitive by current standards. 14 Current dollar levels are held constant as baseline Levelized means that capital, fixed O&M, variable O&M, fuel and transmission have all been weighted in 16 Tidal is excluded as its generation costs are not known reliably at present 15 Conclusion Fro the foregoi g a al sis of Pakista ’s e erg situatio , it a e o ser ed that the ou tr has immense potential for utility of sustainable resources; these are currently untapped and instead the use of fossil fuels is on the rise. Some policy shifts are required in the way the government operates, whereas there are serious issues on side of public awareness, fiscal recovery mechanisms and coordinated developmental planning A series of measures at both policy, social and technical levels are required if the country is to move into a sustainability scenario by the end of 21st century. As dimensioned above, it is achievable and financially feasible, to diversify the energy mix of Pakistan by moving it away from fossilized based on to greener pathway. A summary of all recommendations made throughout this report to the government of Pakistan for security, efficiency, reliability and sustainability of its energy mix, is presented below. Recommendation 1: Unify all governmental departments related to energy aspects under one federal ministry. Recommendation 2: Separation of regulatory framework from political influence. Recommendation 3: Reversal of energy devolution back to the national level. Recommendation 4: Simulation of French model by setting nuclear as main mode of electricity production during 21st century. Recommendation 5: Aggressive exploration of partnership possibilities with companies in the world that are pursuing coal gasification techniques. Recommendation 6: Introduce building codes that necessitate the use of double-layered insulated walls. Recommendation 7: Harness the potential of dried cow dung (established tradition) combined with institutionalized collection of municipal waste for power generation by incineration. Recommendation 8: Roll back of CNG for transport sector to avoid early depletion. Recommendation 9: Exploration of cultivating sugarcane or other crops for ethanol and biofuels should be undertaken forthwith to provide alternatives to transport sector. Recommendation 10: Increase of quantity and quality of public transport systems in urban areas. Recommendation 11: Introduction of hybrid electric cars Recommendation 12: Steps for long term elimination of electricity theft, transmission losses and unpaid consumer bills. Recommendation 13: Overhauling of old equipment and consultative studies for determining the integration possibilities of smart grid in future. Recommendation 14: Launch public awareness campaign to promote habits on energy conservation in daily domestic and professional environments. Recommendation 15: Install at least 20,000 MW rated wind turbines in a gradual manner, by the end of 21st century Recommendation 16: Install at least 40,000 MW rated solar systems (photovoltaic or concentrated thermal) in a gradual manner, by end of 21st century Recommendation 17: Install at least 10,000 MW rated biomass incineration plants in a gradual manner, by end of 21st century Recommendation 18: Install at least 40,000 MW rated hydel generation plants, by end of 21st century Recommendation 19: Formulate energy transition from fossil to sustainable sources according to the phase-wise model presented here. References [1] NA Secretariat, "Federal Minister," Automation Center, http://www.na.gov.pk/en/fmins_list.php. [Accessed 2 Dec 2013]. 2011. [Online]. 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