R ES E A RC H
PROTECTED AREAS
The uncertain future of protected
lands and waters
Rachel E. Golden Kroner1,2*, Siyu Qin2,3, Carly N. Cook4, Roopa Krithivasan5,
Shalynn M. Pack6, Oscar D. Bonilla7, Kerry Anne Cort-Kansinally8, Bruno Coutinho9,
Mingmin Feng2,10, Maria Isabel Martínez Garcia9, Yifan He2, Chris J. Kennedy1,
Clotilde Lebreton11, Juan Carlos Ledezma12, Thomas E. Lovejoy1, David A. Luther13,
Yohan Parmanand8, César Augusto Ruíz-Agudelo14, Edgard Yerena15,
Vilisa Morón Zambrano15, Michael B. Mascia2
G
overnments have designated nearly 15% of
global lands and 7.3% of oceans as protected areas (PAs) (1) to “achieve the longterm conservation of nature” (2). Amid
calls to accelerate PA designation to safeguard biodiversity (3), some governments have
initiated large-scale rollbacks to legal protections
(4–9). Collectively, legal changes that temper,
shrink, or abolish PAs are known as protected
area downgrading, downsizing, and degazettement (PADDD) events [(4), Fig. 1]. PADDD events
can accelerate forest loss, fragmentation, and
carbon emissions (5, 6).
Through systematic archival research and expert consultation (see materials and methods),
we documented enacted and proposed PADDD
events in two regions experiencing rapid environmental policy change: the United States and the
nine Amazonian countries. Combined with prev1
Department of Environmental Science and Policy, George
Mason University, Fairfax, VA, USA. 2Moore Center for
Science, Conservation International, Arlington, VA, USA.
3
Geography Department, Humboldt University of Berlin,
Berlin, Germany. 4School of Biological Sciences, Monash
University, Clayton, VIC, Australia. 5Graduate School of
Geography, Clark University, Worcester, MA, USA. 6Round
River Conservation Studies, Patagonia, Chile. 7International
Conservation Consultant, Bogotá, Colombia. 8Conservation
International Guyana, Georgetown, Guyana. 9Conservação
Internacional Brasil, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. 10School of
Forestry and Environmental Studies, Yale University, New
Haven, CT, USA. 11UMR ESPACE-DEV, Montpellier University,
L’Institut de Recherche pour le Développement, Guyane
University, Reunion University, Antilles University, Centre
Universitaire de Formation et de Recherche, Mayotte,
France. 12Conservación Internacional Bolivia, La Paz, Bolivia.
13
Department of Biology, George Mason University, Fairfax,
VA, USA. 14Fundación Universitaria Los Libertadores, Bogotá,
Colombia. 15Department of Environmental Studies, Simon
Bolivar University, Caracas, Venezuela.
*Corresponding author. Email:
[email protected]
Golden Kroner et al., Science 364, 881–886 (2019)
iously published and unpublished PADDD records
from 66 additional countries collected systematically, opportunistically, and through crowdsourcing [(5–9), table S1], we present the most
comprehensive global review to date of the
extent, trends, and proximate causes of PADDD.
Protected Area
Downgrade
A clearly defined geographical space, recognized,
dedicated and managed, through legal or other effective
means, to achieve the long-term conservation of nature
with associated ecosystem services and cultural values.
A decrease in legal restrictions on the number,
magnitude, or extent of human activities within a
protected area.
Downsize
Degazettement
A decrease in size of a protected area as a result of excision
of land or sea area through a legal boundary change.
A loss of legal protection for an entire
protected area.
Fig. 1. Protected area downgrading, downsizing, and degazettement. PAs are defined in (2);
downgrading, downsizing, and degazettement are defined in (4). PADDD events are legal (de jure)
changes, as distinct from (but potentially related to) de facto PA management and performance.
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Protected areas are intended to safeguard biodiversity in perpetuity, yet evidence suggests
that widespread legal changes undermine protected area durability and efficacy. We
documented these legal changes—protected area downgrading, downsizing, and
degazettement (PADDD) events—in the United States and Amazonian countries and
compiled available data globally. Governments of the United States and Amazonian
countries enacted 269 and 440 PADDD events, respectively. Between 1892 and 2018,
73 countries enacted 3749 PADDD events, removing 519,857 square kilometers from
protection and tempering regulations in an additional 1,659,972 square kilometers; 78%
of events were enacted since 2000. Most PADDD events (62%) are associated with
industrial-scale resource extraction and development, suggesting that PADDD may
compromise biodiversity conservation objectives. Strategic policy responses are needed
to address PADDD and sustain effective protected areas.
The United States is home to the first modern
PAs—Yellowstone and Yosemite National Parks—
and has historically been a global conservation
leader. Between 1892 and 2017, however, the U.S.
government enacted at least 269 PADDD events
in 229 terrestrial federal PAs, removing protections for 15,555 km2 and tempering regulations
in an additional 511,307 km2 (Fig. 2). The U.S.
government enacted PADDD events in 44 states
across all federal land management agencies.
The earliest PADDD event was enacted in 1892 in
Yosemite National Park, when Congress authorized wagon road and turnpike construction (6);
in 1905, Congress downsized Yosemite by 30%
to enable forestry and mining (6). Most U.S.
PADDD events (n = 186) resulted from a 2016
National Park Service regulation provisionally
allowing Native American tribes to harvest
plants for traditional subsistence purposes if the
activity will have “no significant ecological impact” (10). Conversely, 34 PADDD events were
associated with industrial-scale resource extraction and development, including the downsizing
of Joshua Tree National Park for mining (1950)
and the downgrading of eight national forests to
allow ski infrastructure construction (1986).
From 1944 to 2017, the U.S. government proposed at least 737 PADDD events in 426 PAs,
which, if enacted, would affect 402,414 km2 of
protected lands. The government introduced
90% of U.S. PADDD proposals since 2000, 99%
of which were associated with industrial-scale
development. For instance, proposals in 2011 and
2015 to authorize infrastructure construction for
national security purposes on public lands “within
R ES E A RC H | R E PO R T
A
Downgrade
Downsize
Protected areas
N
N
100km
B
C
Protected areas (count)
Enacted PADDD events (count)
Protected areas (area)
Enacted PADDD events (area)
Cumulative Count
700
600
500
700
600
500
400
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
0
1900
0
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
Cumulative Area (1000 km2)
800
800
Enacted PADDD Events (Cumulative Count)
100km
250
250
225
Forestry (n = 5)
200
225
175
Infrastructure (n = 20)
Mining (n = 5)
150
Oil and Gas (n = 3)
125
200
100
Land Claims (n = 4)
75
Subsistence (n = 186)
50
Degradation (n = 3)
25
Other (n = 15)
0
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Year
Year
Fig. 2. Patterns, trends, and causes of PADDD in the United States. (A to C) Spatial patterns (A), temporal trends (B), and proximate causes
(C) of enacted PADDD events in the United States, from 1892 to 2018 (n = 269). PA layer includes federal terrestrial PAs (source described in
the materials and methods).
100 miles” (161 km) of Mexico or Canada would
affect 191 PAs (11).
Recent PADDD events highlight the increasingly uncertain future of U.S. PAs. In 2017, after
114 unsuccessful proposals over 30 years, the U.S.
Congress approved oil and gas development in
the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (12). Also in
2017, President Trump enacted the two largest
downsizes in U.S. history, reducing Bears Ears
and Grand Staircase–Escalante National Monuments by 85% (4657 km2) and 51% (3488 km2),
respectively (13, 14); these decisions are currently
under litigation. The U.S. government has identified nine additional terrestrial and marine
national monuments for downgrading or downsizing (15).
Golden Kroner et al., Science 364, 881–886 (2019)
To conserve biocultural diversity and ecosystem services, the nine countries of Amazonia established PAs covering nearly 25% of their lands
(1). Governments in seven Amazonian countries
enacted 440 PADDD events (322 downgrades,
86 downsizes, and 32 degazettements) across
245 (12%) state-designated PAs, between 1961
and 2017 (Fig. 3). These PADDD events removed
protections for 154,857 km2 and downgraded
an additional 209,004 km2. Most (83%) enacted
PADDD events were associated with industrialscale resource extraction and development, followed by local land pressures and claims (9%)
(Fig. 4). Of the enacted PADDD events in Amazonia,
5% were simultaneously offset with upgraded
or expanded protections (table S23), whereas
31 May 2019
67% were later reversed through revocations of
downgrades or establishments of new PAs (table
S22). PADDD in Amazonia is widespread, with
75% of ecoregions (16) and 21% of Key Biodiversity Areas (17) currently or potentially affected.
Among Amazonian countries, the prevalence
of PADDD varies widely (between 0 and 85% of
PAs affected, table S26), at least partly because of
different legal frameworks governing PAs. For
instance, Bolivia (5% of PAs affected) authorizes
extractive activities in certain PAs upon establishment, so the issuance of permits for oil and gas
in national parks would not constitute a PADDD
event. Higher rates of PADDD in Colombia (85%)
and Peru (43%) arose from reforms to nationallevel laws to authorize mining, agriculture, and
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N
1,000km
R ES E A RC H | R E PO R T
A
Venezuela
Guyana
Suriname
French Guiana
Colombia
Ecuador
Peru
Brazil
Bolivia
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Downgrade
Downsize
Degazettement
N
Protected areas
500 km
Systematic research conducted
3000
3000
Protected areas (count)
2500
2500
Cumulative Count
Enacted PADDD events (count)
Protected areas (area)
2000
1500
1500
1000
1000
500
500
0
Enacted PADDD Events (Cumulative Count)
0
1960
C
2000
Enacted PADDD events (area)
Cumulative Area (1000 km2)
B
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
Year
450
Forestry (n = 7)
400
Industrial Agriculture (n = 17)
350
Infrastructure (n = 98)
300
Mining (n = 106)
250
Oil and Gas (n = 12)
200
Land Claims (n = 17)
150
Rural Settlements (n = 19)
100
Conservation Planning (n = 11)
Degradation (n = 13)
50
0
1960
Multiple Causes (n = 121)
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
Year
Fig. 3. Patterns, trends, and causes of PADDD in Amazonia. (A to C) Spatial patterns (A), temporal trends (B), and proximate causes (C) of enacted PADDD
events in Amazonian countries, from 1961 to 2017 (n = 440). PA layer includes state-designated PAs (sources described in the materials and methods).
Golden Kroner et al., Science 364, 881–886 (2019)
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R ES E A RC H | R E PO R T
A
Downgrade
Downgrade (Marine)
Downsize
Degazettement
Protected areas
N
2,000 km
B
Industrial-scale resource
extraction and development
Local land pressures
and land claims
Other
Multiple causes
Unknown
N
Systematic research conducted
C
2,000 km
Enacted PADDD Events (Cumulative Count)
3000
Forestry (n = 86)
2800
Industrial Agriculture (n = 140)
2600
2400
Industrialization (n = 36)
2200
Infrastructure (n = 1339)
2000
Mining (n = 170)
1800
Oil and Gas (n = 87)
1600
Land Claims (n = 52)
1400
1200
Rural Settlements (n = 50)
1000
Subsistence (n = 746)
800
Degradation (n = 23)
600
Conservation Planning (n = 45)
400
Other (n = 62)
200
0
1960
Multiple Causes (n = 155)
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
Year
Golden Kroner et al., Science 364, 881–886 (2019)
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Systematic research conducted
Fig. 4. Global patterns,
trends, and causes of
PADDD. (A to C) Spatial
patterns of PADDD by event
type (A) and proximate
cause (B) and proximate
causes over time of
PADDD (C), enacted in
73 countries, from 1892 to
2018 (n = 3749). Countries
in which we conducted
systematic research are
shown in dark gray. Spatial
data were not available
for 354 events, including in
the Democratic Republic
of the Congo (n = 41) and
Malaysia (n = 123). PAs are
from the World Database of
Protected Areas, June 2018
(29). In (B), “industrialscale resource extraction
and development” includes
fisheries, forestry, industrial
agriculture, industrialization, infrastructure, mining,
and oil and gas. “Local land
pressures and land claims”
include land claims, rural
settlements, and subsistence. “Other” includes
degradation (n = 24),
conservation planning
(n = 52), refugee accommodations (n = 2), shifting
sovereignty (n = 2), and
other proximate causes
(n = 42). Fisheries (n = 16)
are included with “other”
in (C), because small
sample size prevented
visualization at this scale.
Proximate causes were
unknown for 602 events.
R ES E A RC H | R E PO R T
Golden Kroner et al., Science 364, 881–886 (2019)
today than lands that retained protections or
where lost protections were later restored (6).
Although PADDD may not always negatively
affect biodiversity [i.e., by restoring rights to displaced peoples (10); optimizing the conservation
estate [1.7% of events were related to conservation planning (21, 22)]; or responding to climate
change], most enacted PADDD events globally
(62%) are associated with industrial-scale resource extraction and development, which is
often incompatible with biodiversity outcomes
(Fig. 4).
Emerging research illustrates patterns, trends,
and causes (9); risks (19, 20); and ecological impacts (5, 6, 8) of PADDD. However, knowledge
gaps remain. The global figures presented are
conservative estimates of PADDD extent, because
legal documents remain inaccessible in many
countries. Additional archival research, as presented in (5–8, 23) and this study, would generate
a more complete understanding of PADDD, especially for marine PAs and for countries where
opportunistic data collection suggests widespread PADDD (e.g., India and Cambodia; see
supplementary text). Further study of the landuse history, enabling conditions, spread, social
and ecological impacts, and relationships between causes and consequences of PADDD will
enable risk assessments, whereas consideration
of PADDD in PA evaluations will provide more
accurate estimates of PA performance (20).
Despite knowledge gaps, sufficient research
exists to develop evidence-based policies in response to PADDD. First, monitoring and public
reporting of enacted and proposed PADDD events
are essential. Despite civil society’s efforts to
monitor PADDD (PADDDtracker.org), standardized tracking of PADDD is not commonplace; the official database of PAs [the World
Database of Protected Areas (1)] lacks information on legal changes to PAs and proximate
causes of PADDD. To systematically track PADDD,
national governments should report on PADDD,
mirroring mechanisms for reporting on PA
establishment.
Public and private sector stakeholders could
promote safeguards and processes to incentivize
PA permanence. Policies and processes governing PADDD vary widely, suggesting potential
reforms for PADDD analogous to those for the
establishment of PAs (24), such as environmental
impact studies, public consultation, and visual
representation of legal proposals (8). The mitigation hierarchy may help frame deliberations
on PADDD proposals: avoid (25), then minimize
impacts, and, if unavoidable, offset by increasing
protections elsewhere (26). Reversing PADDD
may confer benefits (6) but may not restore ecological values, if habitat loss has occurred. Laws
could require that decision-makers deliberate
PADDD proposals separately from other policies
and gain approval from multiple parties (27), including from the same, if not higher, level of government as for PA gazettement. Donors and
lenders may also consider PADDD and its impacts in their safeguard policies and funding
decisions.
31 May 2019
As human pressures on the biosphere accelerate, it is critical to strengthen—not roll back—
conservation efforts (25, 28). Recent PADDD
events in the United States and Brazil are of particular concern; as global leaders in conservation, decisions by the United States and Brazilian
governments to erode protections could embolden other countries to do the same. Given the
global investment in PAs to conserve nature, it
is essential to accelerate research and support
evidence-based policy to address PADDD and
safeguard PAs.
REFERENCES AND NOTES
1. United Nations Environment Programme–World Conservation
Monitoring Centre (UNEP-WCMC), International Union for
the Conservation of Nature (IUCN), National Geographic
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DC, 2018).
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management categories” (IUCN, Gland, Switzerland, 2008).
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16. D. M. Olson et al., Bioscience 51, 933–938 (2001).
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infrastructure in multiple PAs simultaneously;
many of these changes were later reversed.
Brazil is a contemporary hotspot of PADDD; 4%
of PAs have been affected by enacted PADDD,
with 48% of events enacted or proposed between
2010 and 2017, primarily to authorize hydropower
dams. Following regional patterns, PADDD events
in Ecuador, French Guiana, and Venezuela authorized infrastructure and extractive activities (n =
20) or ceded lands to local communities (n = 6).
No PADDD events were enacted in Suriname
or Guyana.
Against a backdrop of PA creation (1), rates of
enacted and proposed PADDD events in Amazonia
have increased since the 1960s (figs. S21 and
S22). Governments in four Amazonian countries
proposed 22 downgrades, 26 downsizes, and
19 degazettements between 1991 and 2017, affecting 210,763 km2 (table S21). Of these, 15 proposals targeting 6236 km2 are currently under
consideration.
Evidence of PADDD demonstrates that PAs are
not permanent fixtures on the landscape (18).
Globally, including in the United States and
Amazonian countries, at least 3749 PADDD
events (2705 downgrades, 698 downsizes, and
346 degazettements) in 3048 PAs have been enacted in 73 countries since 1892 (Fig. 4), removing 519,857 km2 from protection and tempering
regulations in an additional 1,659,972 km2; in
total, 1,961,599 km2 has been affected, an area
approximately the size of Mexico. Sixty-four percent (n = 2898 of 3710 events with known dates)
were enacted between 2008 and 2018, and 78%
(n = 2398) between 2000 and 2018. Systematic
archival research reveals high rates of PADDD.
For instance, PADDD affected 20% of terrestrial
PAs in Australia and 43% in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (5, 7). Among enacted PADDD
events with known proximate causes (n = 3015),
62% (n = 1884) are associated with industrialscale resource extraction and development and
28% (n = 852) with local land pressures and
claims (4, 9) (Fig. 4). PADDD events can be dynamic: 24% of enacted events were later reversed
(table S7), and 5% were offset by means of compensatory protection elsewhere (table S8). Eightynine percent of events resulted from systemic
changes, whereby one legal action affected multiple PAs (table S9). Furthermore, 24 countries
have proposed at least 847 PADDD events; 46 proposals currently under consideration in 14 countries target an additional 32,062 km2 (table S11).
As discussions unfold regarding the future of
PAs, it is critical to consider potential risks and
consequences of PADDD. In the tropics, PADDD
is more likely among larger PAs closer to population centers (19). In Brazil, PAs with higher historical deforestation rates were more likely to be
downsized or degazetted (8, 20), representing an
attempt to align PA status with prior land use, with
underperforming PAs preferentially bargained
away in negotiations over land governance (20).
In Peru and peninsular Malaysia, downsizings
and degazettements accelerated forest loss and
carbon emissions (5). Forests downsized from
Yosemite National Park are more fragmented
R ES E A RC H | R E PO R T
27. M. J. Hardy, J. A. Fitzsimons, S. A. Bekessy, A. Gordon,
Conserv. Lett. 10, 221–230 (2017).
28. J. Marton-Lefèvre, Science 346, 525–525 (2014).
29. UNEP-WCMC (2018); www.protectedplanet.net.
ACKN OW LEDG MEN TS
See supplementary text for acknowledgments of nonauthor
contributions. Funding: R.E.G.K. received support from Graduate
Women in Science and George Mason University; S.Q. received
support from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research
and innovation program under the Marie Skłodowska-Curie grant
agreement no. 765408; C.N.C. received support from an ARC Early
Career Researcher Award (DE180100854) and the Ian Potter
Foundation; M.B.M. and S.Q. received support from Betty and
Gordon Moore; and M.B.M. received support from the Seligmann
Innovation Fund. The workshop and data collection in Amazonia
were supported by Conservation International, through Betty and
Gordon Moore, the Global Conservation Fund, and the Walton
Family Foundation. Author contributions: M.B.M. conceived the
idea; R.E.G.K., M.B.M., R.K., C.N.C., and S.M.P. designed the study;
R.E.G.K., S.Q., R.K., C.N.C., S.M.P., O.D.B., K.A.C.-K., B.C., M.F.,
M.I.M.G., Y.H., C.L., J.C.L., Y.P., C.A.R.-A., E.Y., and V.M.Z. collected
data; R.E.G.K., S.Q., R.K., C.N.C., S.M.P., O.D.B., K.A.C.-K., M.F.,
M.I.M.G., Y.H., C.J.K., C.L., J.C.L., T.E.L., D.A.L., Y.P., C.A.R.-A., E.Y.,
V.M.Z., and M.B.M. analyzed and interpreted data; and all
authors wrote and edited the manuscript. Competing interests:
The authors declare no competing interests. Data and
materials availability: All data are available in the main text or
the supplementary materials. Data validated by peer review are
available on PADDDtracker.org. This is publication #9 of the
PADDDtracker Initiative.
SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIALS
science.sciencemag.org/content/364/6443/881/suppl/DC1
Materials and Methods
Supplementary Text
Figs. S1 to S34
Tables S1 to S31
References (30–74)
22 June 2018; accepted 9 April 2019
10.1126/science.aau5525
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Golden Kroner et al., Science 364, 881–886 (2019)
31 May 2019
6 of 6
The uncertain future of protected lands and waters
Rachel E. Golden Kroner, Siyu Qin, Carly N. Cook, Roopa Krithivasan, Shalynn M. Pack, Oscar D. Bonilla, Kerry Anne
Cort-Kansinally, Bruno Coutinho, Mingmin Feng, Maria Isabel Martínez Garcia, Yifan He, Chris J. Kennedy, Clotilde Lebreton,
Juan Carlos Ledezma, Thomas E. Lovejoy, David A. Luther, Yohan Parmanand, César Augusto Ruíz-Agudelo, Edgard
Yerena, Vilisa Morón Zambrano and Michael B. Mascia
Science 364 (6443), 881-886.
DOI: 10.1126/science.aau5525
ARTICLE TOOLS
http://science.sciencemag.org/content/364/6443/881
SUPPLEMENTARY
MATERIALS
http://science.sciencemag.org/content/suppl/2019/05/29/364.6443.881.DC1
RELATED
CONTENT
http://science.sciencemag.org/content/sci/364/6443/832.full
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Not all that protected, after all
The intention of creating protected natural areas is to protect them in the long term from destructive human
activities. Governments do not always follow these intentions, however, and often legally remove protections and reduce
the extent of protected areas. Golden Kroner et al. looked across the United States and Amazonia over the past 200
years and found more than 700 such changes, two-thirds of which have occurred since the year 2000 (see the
Perspective by Naughton-Treves and Holland). The majority of these were to permit destructive practices, such as
resource extraction. Thus, these changes do not just alter status but lead to irreparable environmental harm.
Science, this issue p. 881; see also p. 832