Major Recent Trends in Violent Conflict

United Nations University Centre for Policy Research Occasional Paper 1 November 2014 Major Recent Trends in Violent Conflict Sebastian von Einsiedel United Nations University, Tokyo, Japan With Louise Bosetti, Rahul Chandran, James Cockayne, John de Boer and Wilfred Wan © 2014 United Nations University. All Rights Reserved. ISBN 978-92-808-9009-09 Major Recent Trends in Violent Conflict 2 Executive Summary On 31 October 2014, the United Nations Secretary General appointed a High-Level Independent Panel on Peace Operations, with the aim to undertake a ‘comprehensive assessment of the state of United Nations peace operations today and the emerging needs of the future’, especially with regard to the changing nature of conflict. With this paper, the UNU Centre for Policy Research wishes to nurture this debate and provide insight into major recent trends in violent conflict. This paper finds that: • After declining for much of the 1990s, major civil wars have almost tripled in recent years along with the number of battle deaths. • UN peace operations are increasingly deployed to situations where there is no peace to keep: roughly twothirds of peacekeepers and almost 90% of SPM personnel are working in peace operations covering countries experiencing high-intensity conflict. • With a decline in civil wars ending in military victory, the conflict relapse rate has increased. • The conflict resolution cases on the UN’s agenda are becoming more difficult, increasing the average life-span of UN peace operations. • Conflicts are becoming more intractable and less conducive to traditional political settlements due to three main developments: º Organized crime has emerged as a major stress factor that exacerbates state fragility, undermines state legitimacy, especially in post-conflict settings, and often lowers the incentives of armed groups to enter political settlements; º The internationalization of civil wars, which tends to make them deadlier and longer; º The growing presence of violent extremist Islamist groups in UN mission areas, which complicates peacemaking and fosters a “hunker down and bunker up” mentality among UN peace operations. • Some forms of violence against civilian populations in wartime are increasing, posing challenges to the implementation of protection of civilians mandates. Among the key trends we see is that: a larger share of today’s mass atrocities takes place in the context of civil wars; rebel groups have become increasingly responsible for the majority of civilian deaths; and the number of displaced people due to violence is at an all-time high. 1. The Resurgence of Civil War Much has been made of the decline in civil wars and battle deaths from the early 1990s to the early 2000s and the UN’s contribution thereto.1 Unfortunately, over the past decade, major civil wars2 have again been on the increase. The number of active civil wars almost tripled from four to eleven between 2007-20143 (Iraq, Afghanistan, DRC, Somalia, South Sudan, Syria, CAR, Libya, Ukraine, Pakistan, and Nigeria). The last time the number of major civil wars was higher was in 1992 (See Fig. 1).4 Along the way, we have seen a near tripling in battle deaths since 2003 (see Fig 2). Major Recent Trends in Violent Conflict 3 scores the point that UN peace operations are increasingly deployed to situations where there is no peace to keep: roughly two-thirds of peacekeepers and almost 90% of Special Political Mission (SPM) personnel are working in peace operations covering countries experiencing high-intensity conflict. 2. Civil War Relapse The causes of civil war tend to be multiple and complex and the specific dynamics of each case are unique. Nonetheless, the 2011 World Development Report (WDR), which reflected extensive research on causes of civil war, highlighted the central importance of weak institutions as the key structural cause that –particularly in combination with political and economic exclusion – create the conditions for conflict and violence.6 Quantitative studies also tell us that countries that have experienced regime change, sudden changes in the degree of democracy, or recent independence are particularly conflict prone (factors that featured variously in Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, South Sudan, Cote d’Ivoire, Mali, CAR, DRC, and Ukraine). Unsurprisingly, civil wars tend to exacerbate the conditions that helped cause them in the first place: state capacity declines, poverty increases, inter-group dynamics become more hostile. This may explain the finding of the 2011 WDR that 90 percent of the civil wars since 2000 occurred in countries that had experienced a civil war in the previous 30 years. While the number of battle deaths is presently significantly lower than at its peak in 1990, it is deeply worrying that both battle deaths and major civil wars are back at the level at which they were during the early 1990s. Fig. 2: Share of SPM and PKO personnel in high-intensity conflict countries Deployed in Active War SPMs Deployed in Active War PKOs Source: DPA and DPKO data Nine of the eleven civil war-afflicted countries are on the Security Council agenda (Nigeria and Pakistan are not). Eight of them host UN peace operations: four field-based political missions and four peacekeeping operations.5 This under- At the same time, today fewer civil wars end in outright victory: while in the 1980s seven times more conflicts ended in military victories than peace settlements, today around five times as many conflicts end in peace settlements as in victories.7 This is of course a positive development, but the Major Recent Trends in Violent Conflict decline in victories also means that war outcomes fail to decisively settle the rules of the new order. These indecisive outcomes largely explain why the relapse rate of civil wars has increased since the early 1990s. (See Fig. 3). Between 1990 and 2004, 33% of peace agreements and 42% of ceasefires collapsed within 5 years.8 Yet, even “failed peace agreements save lives as the death toll after conflict relapse is on average 80% less than it was before the peace agreement.”9 3. Institution Building and Political Settlements The UN has long instinctively understood the central importance of state weakness in driving conflict and it is well established that among the key goals of UN operations should be “institution-building and the promotion of good governance and the rule of law by assisting the parties to develop legitimate and broad-based institutions.”10 The problem with this approach is the long time-line for institutional transformation, with the fastest historical reformers requiring between 10-17 years to achieve meaningful improvements (See Table 1).11 The state-building challenge is compounded by the fact that “many of the world’s most difficult conflicts occur in countries where any such state institutions are subordinate to social affinities and patronage networks.”12 This is particularly true for sub-Saharan Africa, where around half of UN peace operations are deployed and where, compared to most other regions, there are few historical antecedents in terms of modern bureaucratic state institutions.13 This does not mean that international post-conflict interventions should not engage in long-term institution-building. However, long-term institution-building exceeds the time horizon of most peace operations, whose focus will need to be on securing and nurturing inclusive political settlements.14 These settlements should be seen as creating breathing space for war-torn countries to embark on the 4 lengthy and arduous path of real institution-building. However, the task of securing these settlements is simultaneously becoming more difficult, as conflict changes. 4. The Changing Nature of Conflict Numerous studies have confirmed that peace operations have overall been effective in helping in the implementation of political settlements to civil wars.15 However, these studies are largely based on the cases of the early and mid-1990s (Namibia, El Salvador, Guatemala, Mozambique, Cambodia, and Eastern Slavonia) where these conflicts were “ripe for resolution”, both locally and in terms of the larger geopolitical context; and they took place in relatively small territories where a few thousand peacekeepers (or a few hundred human rights observers) could tip the balance in a positive direction. Studies on peacekeeping effectiveness thus don¹t tell us that UN peace operations have arguably become less effective, as the UN has moved on to ‘harder’ conflict resolution cases. Since the turn of the millennium, the UN has struggled to bring lasting stability to a number of conflict situations on its agenda, many of which have experienced repeated crises. One indicator suggesting that UN missions are finding it ever more difficult to establish stability is their increasing average life-span (see Fig. 4). Compared to the 1990s, peace operations now tend to be deployed for much longer – with more uncertain outcomes. Part of the explanation for this may be that conflict is changing, becoming more intractable and less conducive to political settlement. We suggest that three developments significantly complicate the endeavours of UN peace operations in peacemaking, peacekeeping, and peace-building: a. Organized crime has emerged as a major stress factor that exacerbates state fragility, undermines state legitimacy, especially in post-conflict settings, and makes conflict more intractable and messy; Major Recent Trends in Violent Conflict b. The increasing “internationalization” of civil war (i.e. increase in military involvement of external actors in civil wars) renders conflicts more difficult to solve; and c. The growing presence of violent Islamist extremist groups in UN areas of operation constitutes a significant challenge to UN peacemaking and peacekeeping as their maximalist goals are difficult to meet through negotiation over democratic power; and they severely constrain UN action on the ground contributing to a “bunker up and hunker down” mentality within peace operations. These three factors are briefly discussed on the following pages. 4.1. The Impact of Organized Crime One key change in the political environment in which the UN operates is the impact of transnational organized crime (the opportunities for which have grown along with globalization) on conflict dynamics and state legitimacy.16 During the Cold War, many civil wars were fuelled by superpower support to rebel forces in “third world” proxy conflicts. As external state support began to dry up, armed non-state groups increasingly engaged in the shadow economy, benefiting from a growth of transnational illicit markets, a by-product of the growing ease with which people, goods, and money can cross borders.17 The growing ability of armed groups and other non-state actors to tap into global illicit markets and their deepening involvement in criminal activities are significantly altering the political economy of violent conflicts and heavily affecting conflict dynamics in a number of settings. First, involvement in conflict economies may lower the incentives for rebel groups to enter into ceasefires or peace agreements. Research has shown that civil wars in which a major rebel group has access to funds from contraband tend to last significantly longer than others.18 The role that the exploitation of “conflict resources” (such as diamonds, minerals, timber, coltan, poppy or coca) has played in fuelling and prolonging civil wars has grown through the 1990s as evidenced in Angola, Sierra Leone, Liberia, the DRC, the CAR, Afghanistan, and Colombia.19 The phenomenon now goes well beyond conflict resources and the opportunities for making money from trafficking and other illicit activities have significantly broadened, as can be seen in Syria, Libya and the Sahel. Second, lootable resources, particularly those that can be accessed directly by rebel cadres (rather than through their chain of command), can prolong conflict by creating discipline problems that make it difficult for leaders to impose a settlement on followers.20 Indeed, control by rebel factions of their own sources of income has made contemporary insurgencies less centralized and more prone to internal fragmentation.21 For example, in Afghanistan, divisions have recently started to appear within the Taliban, with parts of the movement following criminal agendas and new ‘fronts’ with sufficient control over their own illicit funding sources 5 behaving autonomously from Taliban central command.22 Third, the entry barriers for disaffected groups into the market of organized violence have been lowered as a result of the growth of illicit markets. Indeed, the means to organize violence have become more readily accessible through transnational arms supply lines, communications technologies (like Facebook and Twitter) and illicit finance streams reducing the barriers for any entrepreneurs of violence to challenge the state. It is easier than ever before for any potentially violent group to get their hands on guns, cash, and even recruits (illustrated by the 15,000 foreign fighters from 81 countries who joined ISIS over the past three years). Fourth, the changed political economy of conflict can increase the risk of indiscriminate and random violence against civilians. Armed groups with illicit profits from external markets have reduced incentives to appeal to the hearts and minds of putative supporters and tend to attract recruits who are motivated by the prospect of financial gain rather than the cause the rebel group claims to represent.23 In combination, the ability of rebel groups to offer recruits material benefits and income independent of their social base make rebel groups more likely to randomly target civilians.24 In addition to changing the political economy of conflict, organized crime also has a particularly nefarious effect on governance, as it corrupts state and security institutions and empowers non-state actors to emerge as rivals to the state in the provision of protection services. Post-conflict states are particularly vulnerable to organized crime as during transitions powerful informal wartime elites (relying on ill-gotten wealth, wartime networks and coercive power) tend to extend their influence over formal state institutions.25 The challenge to state legitimacy is exacerbated when political and economic liberalization processes that often follow war are seen to further empower organized crime elements and when demobilized combatants gravitate toward gangs. While this phenomenon is not new, the corrosive impact of organized crime on state legitimacy is exacerbated by the growth of transnational criminal markets and the shift in illicit flows. Of particular concern, given the heavy UN presence in the region,26 is the emergence of West Africa and the Sahel as a major transit region for Andean cocaine en route to Europe and other parts of Africa. This has given rise to fears that narco-states are emerging in the region and has contributed to the resurgence of coups d’état (as rival factions of the state security forces struggle over share of the drug trade). Similar dynamics are at play in Central Asia, Afghanistan, and Guatemala. Another new trend is the growing attraction that cities in fragile and conflict-affected states have on transnational criminal groups. Cities such as Kinshasa, Mogadishu, Juba, Kabul, and Port au Prince are growing at unprecedented and unmanageable rates for what are already fragile settings. Major Recent Trends in Violent Conflict This fragility combined with the connectedness offered by modern communication systems and access to large transportation hubs have enabled illicit markets and groups to thrive in conflict and violence affected cities. These dynamics can severely destabilize post-conflict countries, undermine state-building efforts, and even throw countries back into a spiral of violence as was visible in Haiti and Guatemala. 6 between 2004-2013,30 a phenomenon of particular concern is the significant rise in Al Qaeda-affiliated or – inspired terrorism. The number of violent Islamist extremist fighters and attacks has doubled since 2010 – and the number of groups has increased by 60% (see Figures 6a and 6b). 4.2 The Internationalization of Civil War A further trend in recent years that makes conflict more intractable is the significant rise of “internationalized civil wars,” i.e. internal conflicts in which other states intervene militarily on one or both sides (see Fig. 5). In 2013, 27% of active intrastate conflicts saw the involvement of external actors supporting one or both warring parties in the conflict. Indeed, research shows that when external interventions in domestic conflicts do not lead to a rapid military victory, they are likely to make internal conflicts deadlier and longer.27 The DRC is a case in point, where the mining and military interests of neighboring countries like Rwanda and Uganda have contributed to extending the Congolese conflict over many years, with both countries shifting their support to different parties over time in accordance with their own objectives. Intervening countries act almost as additional independent parties to the conflict, which poses extra challenges to peace negotiations.28 Syria is another example, where the military involvement of a multiplicity of external actors complicates prospects for a negotiated solution to the conflict. In particular, the involvement of states with strong militaries in internal conflicts is likely to cause more fatalities.29 Among the eleven countries identified by a RAND Corporation study as facing the highest levels of threat from al Qaeda-affiliated terrorist groups while having the weakest rule of law capacity to confront it, eight are hosting UN peace operations (seven of which are SPMs): Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Syria, Somalia, Yemen, Lebanon, and Mali. 4.3 Peace operations in the face of violent Islamist extremism There is a widespread perception that the UN operates today in a fundamentally changed threat environment compared to fifteen years ago. In the context of a ten-fold increase in global terrorist incidents from 895 to 8,461 The fact that many of today’s civil war environments feature extremist Islamist insurgencies or the presence of al Qaeda-affiliated groups complicates peacemaking because many of these groups (such as ISIS or Boko Haram) tend to pursue maximalist demands that are very difficult to meet or to incorporate into political settlements based on human rights and democratic governance. Even where such groups Major Recent Trends in Violent Conflict may be motivated primarily by local, legitimate, and reversible grievances which could be addressed through negotiated agreements, key powers tend to discourage negotiations with such groups, which are often proscribed through UN, US, or EU terrorism designation lists. The rise in violent Islamist extremism also poses challenges to the UN because al Qaeda and affiliated groups have long identified the UN as one of their primary enemies and have repeatedly targeted UN installations and staff.31 The UN has adjusted its posture accordingly and its peace operations show an increasing tendency to “bunker up and hunker down” which constrains the ability of both uniformed personnel and civilian staff to engage with the local population, win hearts and minds, mediate local disputes, and gather information – work critical to help with the implementation of peace agreements. Even missions in countries with comparatively low threat levels often feel compelled to adopt security measures that fuel a public image of inaccessibility. While the risk has doubtlessly increased, looking at the fatality rate (per 1,000 personnel deployed) rather than absolute number of attacks paints a slightly more nuanced picture than some of the alarmist rhetoric suggests. Indeed, the fatality rate from malicious acts on international civilians has remained consistent for the past 7 years (see Fig. 8), while that for UN troops, observers and police remains very low by historical standards (See Fig. 7), both possibly a function of less risk-taking or better force protection.32 And the upward trend in the fatality rate since 2007 among uniformed personnel is mainly the result of increased attacks against two missions: UNAMID (before 2013) and MINUSMA (since 2013). The latter, of course, is of strategic importance as it is seen as a key test case on whether UN peacekeeping is a viable tool in conflicts featuring Islamist insurgencies. The very high fatality figures of the AU’s peacekeeping mission in Somalia (up to 3,000 estimated fatalities between 2007-13)33 highlight the risks of peace support operations in such settings. 7 5. Protection of Civilians Today, peace operations operate in a significantly different normative environment compared to the 1990s due to the increased attention paid to protection of civilians and the responsibility to protect norm. Since a protection of civilians provision was first included in the mandate of a peacekeeping operation in 1999 (Sierra Leone), they have become a standard feature of such missions. Of the 16 peacekeeping operations deployed in November 2014, ten had a mandate to protect civilians and those that didn’t were carry-overs from earlier times. (Meanwhile, political missions also face some expectations from local populations to protect civilians but lack the mandate and means to do so). This raises questions about trends and dynamics we see in civilian suffering in civil wars. Mass Atrocities Looking at mass atrocities (i.e. episodes with at least 5,000 civilians killed intentionally), we find that their frequency has declined since the 1970s. However, a larger share of mass atrocities today takes place in the context of civil wars (see Fig. 9).34 Since 1980, there have only been five “peacetime episodes” of mass atrocities, four of which occurred in countries that had recently experienced armed conflict (DRC, Myanmar, and twice in Burundi).35 While it is extremely difficult to anticipate which armed conflicts are likely to generate mass atrocities, “groups may be encouraged to commit atrocities during transitional phases in order to ‘earn’ a seat at the negotiating table by signaling resolve. Similar outcomes can be prompted by the deployment of impartial peacekeepers, it is worth remembering that more civilians were killed after peacekeepers were deployed to Bosnia, Rwanda, and the DRC than before.”36 Major Recent Trends in Violent Conflict Violence against Civilians Looking at violence against civilians more broadly (episodes of at least 25 civilians killed intentionally), one cannot discern any clear trend since the early 2000s, although 2013 shows an uptick due to violence against civilians in CAR and Syria (see Fig. 10).37 One particularly interesting finding of the data on one-sided violence is that over the past 25 years rebel groups have become increasingly responsible for the majority of those deaths, accounting for close to 70% of one-sided fatalities since 2000; the only year in which the percentage dipped below 70% was in 2011, in which much of the violence against civilians was carried out by governments of Arab Spring countries (see Fig. 11). The nature of modern warfare links insurgency movements with civilians, who oftentimes provide “supplies, intelligence, shelter, and recruits.”38 Civilian groups can also be targeted for their symbolic value, as acts of extreme violence – such as widespread torture and mutilation – undermine the authority of the state.39 8 Sexual Violence in Conflict40 Similarly, sexual violence has a profound effect on the community as a whole, with the nature of these crimes exacerbating the feeling of social disorder.41 Available data shows a significant upward trend in wartime rape during the 1990s (most likely a function of increased reporting rather than increased incidents) and a slight decline since the early 2000s – both in terms of average level reported and its prevalence across conflicts (see Fig. 12).42 53 of the 86 violent conflicts in that period contained at least one year of “massive” reported rapes, or had “numerous” reported rapes. State actors were more likely than militias and rebel groups to be reported as perpetrators from 2000 to 2009.43 One emerging trend includes the use of sexual violence by armed groups – in Colombia, the DRC, Libya, and others – to induce the displacement of populations, oftentimes in resource-rich or strategic locations.44 Children and Armed Conflict The abuse of children in the context of armed conflict appears to be on the rise (see Figure 16). There were over 4,000 documented cases of children recruited and used in conflicts in 2013, with thousands more estimated to be involved.45 54 parties (armed forces or groups) in conflict situations on the Security Council agenda were listed as Major Recent Trends in Violent Conflict engaging in activities targeting children: killing or maiming, recruitment or use, rape and other forms of sexual violence, and attacks on schools and hospitals – with 26 of those parties cited as “persistent perpetrators,” having been listed for five years, both numbers the highest since reporting began in 2003.46 9 from the human suffering, this is a concern as high levels of displacement, have been shown to reduce the chances of peace operations succeeding (as they exacerbate inter-group hostility).48 With a steady rise in the average number of IDPs per conflict (63% of all conflict-induced IDPs in 2013 came from five countries), the data suggests that forced displacement has become a deliberate and widespread tactic.49 70% of IDPs are women and children.50 Two-thirds of the displaced are located in urban areas and are thus difficult to identify and reach by humanitarians and often are sources of significant tensions with host communities. The average duration of displacement in conflict settings is 17.5 years, indicating that displacement is as much a development and long-term state-building issue as it is a short-term humanitarian one. Forced Migration The number of displaced people is at an all-time high (Fig. 14).47 51.2 million people are internally displaced or refugees as a result of conflict, violence, and persecution. Apart Key Questions for Peace Operations The key trends in contemporary violent conflict surveyed in this paper raise a number of questions with respect to UN peace operations, which may be relevant to the Secretary-Generals’ high-level Review Panel. These include: • What is the utility of peace operations in conflicts where there is no peace to keep? • To what degree, if at all, can UN peacekeeping take on a counterinsurgency role, particularly where extremist Islamist insurgencies are under way? • What does the rise in the internationalization of civil wars mean for UN peace operations? • What are the implications of current patterns of violence for the implementation of protection of civilian mandates? • What are appropriate timelines and levels of ambition for UN peace operations in terms of post-conflict institution-building? • How can UN peace operations better understand and mitigate the negative impact of organized crime on peacemaking and post-conflict peace-building? Major Recent Trends in Violent Conflict 10 ENDNOTES 1 Pinker, Steven. The Better Angels of Our Nature: Why Violence Has Declined. New York: Penguin Books, 2012; A More Secure World: Our Shared Responsibility, Report of the High-level Panel on Threats, Challenges and Change. New York: United Nations, 2004; Human Security Report Project, Human Security Report 2013: The Decline in Global Violence: Evidence, Explanation, and Contestation, (Vancouver: Human Security Press, 2013). 2 i.e. those with over 1,000 battle death per year 3 Iraq, Afghanistan, Somalia, Sri Lanka 4 The picture looks less dire if one looks at all conflicts in the UCD dataset, i.e. all conflicts with a threshold of 25 battle-deaths/year. That figure in 2013 stood at 32, down from 39 in 2009, roughly the same level as during the period 2002 – 2007 but significantly down from the period 1990-5, when the number stood between 40 and 50 active civil wars. 5 SPMs include: UNAMA, UNAMI, UNSOM, and UNSMIL. PKOs include: MONUSCO, UNDOF, MINUSCA, and UNMISS. 6 Bruce Jones and Molly Elgin-Cossart, “Development in the Shadow of Violence: A knowledge agenda for priority,” Report on the Future Direction of Investment in 7 Human Security Report 2009/2010: The Causes of Peace and the Shrinking Costs of War. New York: Oxford University Press, 2011. 8 Ibid. 9 http://politicalviolenceataglance.org/?s=mack Evidence on Issues of Fragility, Security and Conflict, IDRC, Ottawa, 2011. 10 UN Secretary-General, “No Exit Without Strategy: Security Council Decision-Making and the Closure or Transition of UN peacekeeping operations,” Report of the UNSG to the Security Council, S/2001/391, New York, 20 April 2001, p. 2. 11 World Development Report 2011, Conflict, Security and Development. Washington, DC: The World Bank, 2011. 12 Alex de Waal, “Mission without End: Peacekeeping in the African political marketplace,” in: International Affairs 85:1 (2009), p. 102. 13 See Francis Fukuyama, Political Order and Political Decay (New York: Farrar, Straus and Giroux, 2014), p. 285- 313. 14 Jones/Elgin Cossart, p. 11. Chuck Call, Why Peace Fails. Alex de Waal, “Mission without End: Peacekeeping in the African political marketplace,” in: International Affairs 85:1 (2009), p. 102. 15 See Page Fortna, Does Peacekeeping Work? Shaping Belligerants’ Choice After Civil War (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2008); James Dobbins and Laurel Miller, “Overcoming Obstacles to Peace,” Survival, vol. 55, n. 1 (Feb 2013). Michael Doyle and Nicholas Sambanis, Making War and Building Peace (Princeton: Princeton University Press 2006. 16 James Cockayne, ‘Chasing Shadows: Strategic Responses to Organised Crime in Conflict-Affected Situations’, RUSI Journal, vol. 158, no. 2, April 2013. 17 Ekaterina Stepanova: “Armed Conflict, crime and criminal violence,” SIPRI Yearbook 2010 (Stockholm, 2010). 18 James Fearon, “Why Do Some Civil Wars Last So Much Longer than Others?” Journal of Peace Research May 2004 vol. 41 no. 3 275-301. 19 See, for instance, De Koning R., Conflict Minerals in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, SIPRI Policy Paper, 27, June 2011; also Shaw, M, 2006, “Drug Trafficking and the Development of Organized Crime in Post-Taliban Afghanistan,” World Bank Report on Opium in Afghanistan, UNDC, Ch.7, pp. 189-214. 20 Michael Ross, “Oil, Drugs, and Diamonds: The Varying Roles of Natural Resources in Civil War”, in Karen Ballentine and Jake Sherman (eds), The Political Economy of Armed Conflict: Beyond Greed and Grievance (Boulder, Lynner Rienner, 2003), pp. 47 – 73. 21 Karen Ballentine, “Conclusion”, in: Ballentine/ Sherman (eds), The Political Economy of Armed Conflict, p. 270. 22 UN Security Council, Fourth report of the Analytical Support and Sanctions Monitoring Team , S/2014/402. 23 Karen Ballentine, “Conclusion”, in: Karen Ballentine and Jake Sherman (eds), The Political Economy of Armed Conflict: Beyond Greed and Grievance (Boulder, Lynne Rienner, 2003), p. 270. 24 Weinstein, Jeremy. (2006) Inside Rebellion: The politics of insurgent violence (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press). See also Kyle Beardsley, Kristian Gleditsch and Nigel Lo, ‘Roving and Stationary Bandits in African Armed Conflicts’, conference paper, Annual Meeting of the International Studies Association, San Francisco, 2013. 25 Christine Cheng, “Private and Public Interests – Informal Actors, Informal Influence, and Economic Order after War”, in: M. Berdal and D. Zaum (eds), The Political Economy of Post-Conflict Statebuilding (Routledge, 2012); James Cockayne, “Strengthening Mediation to Deal with Criminal Agendas”, Center for Humanitarian Dialogue, Oslo Forum papers no. 2, November 2013. 26 The region is currently hosting five UN peace operations and a special envoy: UNIOGBIS, UNOWA, UNOCI, MINUSMA, UNMIL, and the Special Envoy for the Sahel. 27 See figures from: Human Security Report 2013, Human Fraser University, p.90; Also Cunningham D. (2010), “Blocking resolution: How external states can prolong civil wars”, Journal of Peace Research 47(2): 115-127. 28 Ibid. 29 Source: UCDP Battle-Related Deaths Dataset v.5-2014. However, in 2013, the number of battle-deaths related to the Syrian conflict was unknown, making international comparison difficult for that year. 30 National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism (START). (2013). Global Terrorism Database [Data file]. Retrieved from http://www.start.umd. edu/gtd 31 Brahimi, L. “Toward a culture of security and accountability.” Report of the Independent Panel on Safety and Security of UN Personnel and Premises Worldwide. 9 June 2008. Para. 21. 32 Colum Lynch, “They just stood watching” Foreign Policy, April, 2014 33 Paul D. Williams, “The African Mission in Somalia and Civilian Protection Challenges”, International Journal of Security and Development, Vol. 2 n. 2, 2013. Major Recent Trends in Violent Conflict 11 34 See Alex Bellamy, “Mass Atrocities and Armed Conflict: Links, Distinctions, and Implications for the Responsibility to Protect”, Stanley Foundation Policy Analysis Brief, February 2011. P. 2. 35 Ibid. 36 Bellamy, p. 8. 37 UCDP One-sided Violence Dataset v 1.4-2014, 1989-2013” and Eck, Kristine and Lisa Hultman. 2007. “Violence Against Civilians in War.” Journal of Peace Research 44(2). 38 Benjamin A. Valentino, 2014, “Why We Kill: The Political Science of Political Violence against Civilians,” Annual Review of Political Science 17, p. 94. 39 Danielle Beswick and Paul Jackson, Conflict, Security and Development: An Introduction, (New York: Routledge, 2011). 40 See Elisabeth Jean Wood, 2006, “Variation in Sexual Violence During War,” Politics & Society 34(3): 307-341. 41 Sara Meger, 2010, “Rape of the Congo: Understanding Sexual Violence in the Conflict in the Democratic Republic of Congo,” Journal of Contemporary African Studies 28(2): 119-135. 42 Dara Kay Cohen and Ragnhild Nordas 2014, “Sexual Violence in Armed Conflict: Introducing the SVAC Dataset, 1989-2009,” Journal of Peace Research 51(3): 418-428. 43 Dara Kay Cohen, Amelia Hoover Green, and Elisabeth Jean Wood, 2013, “Wartime Sexual Violence: Misconceptions, Implications, and Ways Forward,” United States Institute of Peace Special Report #323. http://www.usip.org/sites/default/files/resources/SR323.pdf 44 Sexual Violence in Conflict: Report of the Secretary-General, A/67/792-S/2013/149 (March 14, 2013). 45 Children and Armed Conflict: Report of the Secretary-General, A/68/878–S/2014/339 (May 15, 2014). 46 Ibid, Annex I. 47 From persecution, conflict, generalized violence, or human rights violations. United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, UNHCR Global Trends 2013: War’s Human Cost, (Geneva: UNHCR 2014). 48 Michael Doyle and Nicholas Sambanis, Making War and Building Peace (Princeton: Princeton University Press 2006. 49 Mary Kaldor, “In Defense of New Wars,” Stability 2(1), 1-16; Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre (IDMC), Global Estimates 2014: People Displaced by Disasters, (Geneva: Norwegian Refugee Council, 2014). 50 I’m Here: Adolescent Girls in Emergencies. New York: Women’s Refugee Commission, 2014