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2021, Berkley Forum
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This month marks the tenth-year anniversary of the Syrian Civil War, where Bashar al-Assad successfully turned a primarily local socioeconomic uprising—stemming from unemployment, inflation, and corruption—into a global sectarian conflict involving Iran, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Russia, the United States, and others. How did Bashar al-Assad manage to implement his strategy so successfully and so quickly? The answer lies in the long and often-neglected history of his approach to religion and sects in the region. In fact, the current geographical configuration of the Middle East— Sunnis and Shiites facing off in Iraq and Syria, with two major Sunni powers (Turkey and Saudi Arabia) and a major Shiite power (Iran)—dates back to the sixteenth century. It was then when the two mighty powers, the Turkish Ottoman Empire (1299–1923) and the Persian Safavid Empire (1499–1722), transformed an emerging geopolitical conflict into a series of seemingly sectarian wars in which they stood up as the “representors” and “guardians” of Sunnism and Shiism, respectively, in the region that now consists of Turkey, Iran, Syria, and Iraq.
The War for Syria. Regional and International Dimensions of the Syrian Uprising, 2020
The chapter’s main objective is to explore the dynamic interplay between sectarianism and power politics in the Middle East, and Syria in particular. To what extent has political realignment along sectarian lines become a significant driver of developments in the region? The depiction of the Syrian conflict as a sectarian proxy war that has taken the form of “Sunni versus Shi’a” covers only part of the highly localized, externally penetrated and complicated war. The principal argument is that regional actors involved in the Syrian war employ all necessary means—sectarian narratives among them—in their struggle for survival and maximization of influence.
2019
The Syrian civil war, that started in 2011, seems never ending. Sectarian conflict between Sunni and Shia, including Alawi, of which the al-Assad family stems, is ensuring a protracted war. Still, it would be simplistic to refer to sectarian identity as the main driver of uprising against the Assad regime or continued violence. Regardless, scholars preferred ‘ancient hatreds’ and sectarianism as explanations for the current domestic and regional political conflict in both Syria and the Middle East (Darwich, Fakhoury 2016, p. 2). These scholars describe the conflict by delving into the past, when ruptures first appeared between Sunni and Shia Muslim branches over the disagreement regarding Prophet Muhammad's successor, after his death in 632 AD (Hashemi, N. and Postel, D., 2017, p. 1). One group, the Sunnis, argued that the next leadership should be chosen among his close companions. Shias, in contrast, believed it should be chosen among his family. This dispute centralized on Muslim leadership but more broadly on the moral basis of legitimacy regarding “political and religious authority in Islam” (Hashemi, N. and Postel, D., 2017, p. 1-2)
This article examines the current sectarianization of the Middle East. It begins with a conceptualization of sectarianism, distinguishes kinds of sectarianism and examines the factors that determine which versions of sectarianism dominate at a particular time. It surveys the preconditions of sectarianization—unequal modernization, instrumentalization of identity in regime power-building practices; the initial precipitant of sectarianization, the US invasion of Iraq; and the impact of the Arab uprisings, in which sectarianism was instrumentalized by regimes and oppositions. Instrumentalized sectarianism reached the grassroots and was transmuted into militant sectarianism by the security dilemma, competitive interference in failed states and trans-state diffusion of sectarian discourses. The consequences of sectarianization include its challenge to state formation and its tendency to empower authoritarianism. Civil war has unleashed militant sectarianism leading to exclusivist practices among both regimes and opposition. The regional power struggle has taken the form of sectarian bi-polarization between Sunni and Shia camps. Sectarianization can only be reversed by an end to the current civil wars in Syria, Iraq and Yemen and the regional power struggles that keep them going.
University College Dublin, 2023
This study extensively examines the complex dynamics of the Syrian Civil Conflict, a turbulent upheaval that sprang with the Arab Spring movement in 2011. The research thoroughly examines the intricate linkages that contribute to the ongoing conflict, with a particular emphasis on both foreign geopolitical impacts and internal sectarian dynamics. This study analyzes the strategic involvements, alliances, and overarching objectives of important foreign parties in the Syrian conflict, including Iran, Russia and Turkey. It draws upon notable scholarly works, like Stein (2019) and Price (2013), among others, to inform the analysis. Simultaneously, this analysis delves into the complex sectarian connections present in Syria, which include many groups such as the Alawite Shia, Sunni Muslims, Druze, Christians, and Kurds. This examination builds upon the fundamental research conducted by Carpenter (2013) and Balanche (2018). The analysis highlights the significant role played by external actors' geopolitical ambitions in exacerbating domestic sectarian divisions, aligning with the perspectives put out by Heydemann (2013) and Hinnebusch (2019). Moreover, the study places significant emphasis on establishing a thorough historical framework, drawing upon the scholarly works of Lynch (2018) and Lund (2019) to provide a rich and detailed portrayal of the socio-political landscape in Syria prior to the onset of the conflict. This undertaking guarantees a comprehensive comprehension of the manner in which innate sectarian dynamics have developed, either via natural progression or due to the impact of external factors. In order to provide a comprehensive narrative, this study integrates a wide range of primary and secondary sources, including theological studies and extensive media coverage such as policy pronouncements. Through the interweaving of these many strands, the objective of this research endeavor is to provide a comprehensive comprehension of the Syrian Civil Conflict, shedding light on the complex interplay between geopolitics and sectarianism that lies at its core.
Civils wars are far more common as compared to interstate wars as evidence on the international system from periods after the cold war and in order to get a comprehensive understanding of the causes as well as motivations of any particular case of conflict every aspect of the factors has to be examined in the theoretical perspective as either grievance or greed as argued by (Collier and Hoeffler,2000).The greed theory focuses on the influence, power ,and economic efforts of an actor in a conflict in order to gain or protect a profitable interest .Whiles the grievance theory on the other side focuses on the political disputes and repressions , ethnic and tribal as well as religious divisions , civil inequality and corruption that robs a society or a state from its fairness in all the spectrum of the state’s administration ranging from the basic or core underling of the state’s societies such as cultural identity to the more complex ones such as the states justice system, land and property ownership as well as political representation and participation. Understanding the Syrian case using this theory suggests that both Greed and Grievance aspects of it are at play. Greed can be traced to Assad’s well to do both financially and militarily to defend the regime for at least not losing the strategic areas of the country as displayed in the territorial map below. The Assad’s regime financing of the pro-regime forces who mostly are offshoots of Hezbollah and Shiite cleavages that fight along both the Syrian and Russian troops in various parts of the country. Still on the greed aspect of the theory it can also be argued that the actions of the state actors such as Iran, Saudi Arabia, United States of America, Russia and their allies’ involvement in the Syrian conflict both directly or indirectly is more of greed rather than grievance. Grievance in its theoretical perspective when subjected to the Syrian conflict would mean the conflict is motivated by inner factors such as ethnic, religious, political or economic grievances. It has to be noted that this paper is not downplaying the influence of one against the other but rather trying to understand the conflict fully using this theoretical perspective and also the influence and impacts of the Islamic sectarian-political divide (Shiite-Sunni) on the Syrian conflict.
The religious and the political intertwine in all sectarian conflicts and the violent conflagration in Syria is no exception. However, sectarianism as an explanatory paradigm is extremely limited; it provides a monolithic reading of a complex phenomenon with a well-established historical pedigree. This paper traces the manifestation of the sectarian dimensions of the conflict, following the development of the heterodox Alawi community from a marginalised sect to its ascendance as Syria’s ruling class. It focuses on how sectarian identity has constantly been exploited by hegemonic powers like the Sunni Ottomans, the French Colonisers and, most recently, the Asad regime. The paper suggests that the only escape from the sectarian minefield is the entrenchment of a strong Syrian national identity within the framework of equal citizenship, pluralistic democracy and the protection of minority rights. This could potentially limit the interference of outside parties, but such an outcome is over-optimistic at the current juncture since vested interests outweigh internal peace and stability.
The last six years of insurgency, rebellion, and war have eroded territorial state sovereignty in Iraq and Syria. The scale and savagery of the war have transformed Sunni-Shia sectarianism into a zero-sum politics of survival. In other words, residents of Iraq and Syria have been forced to choose between Sunnis and Shia in order to survive. This essay explains how the diverging interests of foreign actors—Iran, the Islamic State and other Salafi-Jihadi foreign fighters, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and the United States—prolonged the war, providing the time and space for the belligerents in Iraq and Syria to weaponize sectarianism.
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