Was the South's Defeat In the American Civil War Inevitable?

Patrick Murray November 13, 2020 AMH 4172 Dr. Katherine Mooney Was the South’s Defeat In the American Civil War Inevitable? Much has been said for the past 160 years whether or not a southern victory was still possible in the middle of the civil war. But it is my personal view that a southern defeat was inevitable for several reasons. But the south also had some things that should’ve worked to its advantage, but did not. First off, the south was outnumbered in manpower, weapons, and funding for a functioning standing military to even be successful. But the other things that could’ve helped it win the war was the fact that its military chain of command was far more sophisticated and organized than that of the union’s. It also contained massive amounts of cotton in what James Henry Hammond coined “cotton kingdom” in the south. Lack of railroads also didn’t help the region because it harmed the South’s ability to transport materials. Also the fact that the south had less factories and textile mills than the north disadvantaged the region if it wanted to pump out needed raw materials and other weaponry. But in the end due to the South’s lack of enough money supply, lack of troops, lack of sufficient amounts of weapons and artillery, and lack of international monetary support From France in their effort failed and their lack of materials and manpower form the beginning made their effort almost an impossible feat to reach. Therefore, the South’s defeat in the civil war was inevitable from the beginning. First of all, we must look at manpower and the lack of it. When looking at the numbers the union had a manpower level of 4.6 million white males eligible to serve between the ages of 18 and 45. The Confederates had a 1.1 million white male advantage. The north contained 22.3 million people in it and the south contained 9.1 million people in it. Overall total population was a 2.5 to 1 advantage. And manpower ability was a 4.2 to 1 advantage. Week 7 Lecture 1 (The Resources of the Union and the Confederacy 1861) Bank deposits for the Confederacy were $47 million, which put it at a 4.4 to 1 advantage. Railroads put the Confederacy at a 2.4 to 1 disadvantage. And a really big problem for the south was its ability to produce firearms in an efficient amount of time for numerous battles. The north had $2.29 million in money to buy weapons and make them. The south only had $73,000 so the south was at a 31 to 1 disadvantage. Second of all I want to really focus on something that the south did have in its favor and why it was so important and that was its ability to produce and distribute cotton and products made out of cotton. The south had a 124 to 1 advantage in cotton. The south had $5.3 million in the cotton industry, which is massive. The north only had $43,000 in cotton profits. This from the beginning would’ve made it look like the south could win. And why is that? The reason is because if you have cotton you have the ability to create clothing and uniforms. You have the ability to create pillows and blankets too for your soldiers to sleep on because the weather gets cold, but also you want your soldiers to be comfortable and well rested. The ability to have cotton is crucial to the south for this reason alone. The problem is there are less ways to transport cotton products because a railroad up until this point had existed only in the north. Not in the south. Furthermore, the chain of command was very important in regards to the confederate army. Having competent men in charge of the chain of command was vital if you wanted to be successful in winning the war. The problem with union was that it didn’t have a good general at first. Their first general was George McClellan. He had called President Lincoln a baboon and thought the president was incompetent and could not do his job. This created a rift between the two men and a mutual form of distrust was created out of this tension. Lincoln would can him in late 1862 after the Battle of Antietam. The battle itself was technically won for the union, but Confederate General Robert E. Lee who by default was already a much more strategic general knew how to hit McClellan from different directions all at once. The issue of mistrust and the fact that Lincoln had felt McClellan was not moving fast enough in hitting the enemy led to his dismissal and Lee knew that McClellan was not a very sophisticated general. This allowed the south to win many battles. It would not be until Lincoln selected Ulysses Grant as the new general of the union army did the tide begin to turn in 1863 and the south began to run out of artillery, funds, clothing, to even shoes where the union began to see a potential victory in sight. The South’s army was full of good generals and a sophisticated hierarchy far more than the union did in the beginning. This is also because the union did not expect the southern army to be this sophisticated, strategic, and this good. This goes back to the fact that northerners never really took southerners seriously and felt automatically they were advantaged. This would only be realized in mid-1863 after the Battle of Gettysburg when the union began to crate a more sophisticated level of people in the chain of command including George Meade and Winfield Scott. Many of whom had fought in the Mexican-American war during the 1840s. This put the union at a great advantage in the middle of the war and beyond and ultimately leading to a union victory in the war in the end. A last point I want to make that would lead to the disastrous end of the south would be the notion of foreign intervention and what its role was in the civil war or lack thereof I should say. After the south had multiple blockades in and around New Orleans it created a chokehold on supply lines for the south and its ability to get new materials. Around 77% of cotton in America was exported to Great Britain at this time so much of Europe was pretty much attached to their dependence on American cotton production. Week 8 Carnage and Meaning Lecture Cotton crop exportation was stopped in 1860 to Europe by this point and interestingly enough Britain does not feel a major impact by the time this happens. It was not until 1862 did Great Britain begin to shut down their mills three days a week. Even though this caused Britain’s economy to suffer and increase unemployment the country does not want to get involved. What ended up happening European powers looked elsewhere for cotton including to Egypt and India and this worked for them for the time being. The Russian empire also had no interest in what was going on in the United States, but France felt they should get involved as discussions about interfering and siding with the south were being had from within France and within the Lincoln cabinet. This fear would be the catalyst for Lincoln to write the preliminary emancipation proclamation and ultimate the official emancipation proclamation, which would be issued on January 1, 1863. The idea that France could get involved in this war terrified President Lincoln because he knew this would put them at a disadvantage if France tried to send weapons, money, or even French troops to the south to help. The union was lucky this failed and did not happen. Lincoln was proactive in his measures by instituting blockades and issuing the emancipation proclamation ahead of time. In a nutshell, the South’s defeat was inevitable because there was too much in the union’s favor despite the South’s better chain of command at least in the beginning of the war and cotton production. The south was disadvantaged because it had fewer men to fight, less access to international support because of blockades and lack of money, an inability to transport raw materials due to a lack of an adequate enough of railway lines, the institution of Grant to the position of Union General, the disaster for the Confederates at Gettysburg, and its monetary situation was much worse. This made the South’s ability to win almost impossible even if it would take four years to realize it.  The process that I used to write this paper was that I first discussed the advantages and disadvantages of both the union and confederate side. I also mentioned reasons that could have allowed the south to win such as its increased usage of cotton due to its excess amount of cotton mills and cotton production. I also discussed that their chain of command was far more sophisticated in spite of the fact that they had less generals from the Mexican-American war to use. Their experience would have been valuable to the confederates. Then I focused on in the body paragraphs the problems for the confederates and why they were doomed from the start monetarily, internationally, and when it comes to manpower and so on and so forth. I felt mentioning the ways in which the south could have won would allow the reader to see that this war even though it was inevitable in regards to the outcome for the most part it was not a war that was easily won given how long it took to win it in spite of the vast amount of resources the union had at its disposal.