Luiss
School of Government
Downsizing the German Bundestag
Working Paper Series
SOG-WP60/2020
ISSN: 2282-4189
Autore: Valentin Kreilinger
Maggio 2020
SoG Working Paper 60/2020
Summary
Abstract
4
1. Introduction
5
2. The size of the Bundestag and the electoral system
6
3. The allocation of seats in practice
9
4. Reforming the electoral system for the Bundestag: A trilemma
13
5. Downsizing proposals and their consequences
15
6. Conclusion
18
Bibliography
19
About Luiss School of Government
22
Submission Guidelines
23
SoG Working Papers
24
Marzo 2020
2 of 30
SoG Working Paper 60/2020
Maggio 2020
3 of 30
SoG Working Paper 60/2020
Abstract
After the last election in 2017 the German Bundestag reached the record size
of 709 parliamentarians. The quasi-automatic increase of the number of MPs
at every election is the product of rulings by the Federal Constitutional Court,
inter-party bargaining and a changing party system. After describing the
rules and their implementation, this paper analyses reforming the electoral
system to downsize the Bundestag as a “trilemma” between the three
conflicting priorities of 1) proportional representation of parties, 2) a close
relationship between MPs and constituents, and 3) proportional
representation of regions. The paper shows that no reform proposal has so far
been able to ensure a smaller parliament, gather sufficient support and solve
the trilemma. An upper limit for the number of parliamentarians seems to be
the only option for downsizing the Bundestag on which the current governing
parties might be able to agree in time before the 2021 election.
Maggio 2020
4 of 30
SoG Working Paper 60/2020
1. Introduction*
In 2017 the German Bundestag reached the size of 709 MPs – with 705 members even the post-Brexit
European Parliament is smaller. German MPs are elected through a mixed-member proportional
system, whose original design dates back to the 1950s. The current electoral law is the outcome of both
inter-party bargaining and judgements from the Federal Constitutional Court, but the increased size
of the German Bundestag is also the result of a change in voting patterns and a transformation of the
party system.
The discussions about downsizing the German Bundestag have reached stalemate and the next federal
election, scheduled for 2021, is likely to be held under the current rules. The city of Berlin is already
preparing permissions to set up temporary container offices in order to be able to accommodate an
even higher than the current number of MPs. While the public backlash against an ever bigger and
more expensive parliament was still relatively weak in 2017, the German Bundestag would consist of
over 800 MPs, if the result of the next election reflected the opinion polls of early 2020. On top of all this,
it is very difficult to imagine how 100 additional seats can be added to the plenary hall in the Reichstag
building.
This paper examines the development of the size of the Bundestag and revisits the German electoral
system as well as the seat allocation mechanism. Any reform of the electoral system faces, as the paper
argues, a trilemma between three competing priorities: the proportional representation of parties, a
close relationship between MPs and their constituents, and the proportional representation of regions.
The most prominent recently tabled proposals for reducing the number of MPs try to respond to these
competing priorities, but neither of them has been able to gather widespread support. Unlike in many
other countries, German MPs must only agree on changing the electoral law and it is not necessary to
pass a constitutional amendment. Despite the urgency to agree on a reform that would actually only
bring very minor modifications to the existing mixed-member proportional system, the case of
Germany shows how difficult downsizing a legislature can be.
An earlier version of this paper was presented at the conference “Downsizing Legislatures. Experiences, Proposals and Effects”, organised by LUISS School of Government, CESP-Center
for Parliamentary Studies and the Jean Monnet chair on “Understanding European Representative Democracy” in Rome on 24 January 2020. I want to thank Professor Nicola Lupo, the
LUISS School of Government, and the Center for Parliamentary Studies for kindly hosting me on that occasion and all the participants at the conference for their insightful comments on
my presentation.
*
Maggio 2020
5 of 30
SoG Working Paper 60/2020
2. The size of the Bundestag and the electoral system
Germany’s electoral system for the Bundestag has emerged from a series of reforms and is
“more the product of elite bargaining than of popular pressure for or against specific electoral
systems” (Scarrow 2003: 57). The mixed-member proportional system used for electing the MPs at
the federal level even turned out to be a model for countries around the world (see Zittel 2018). The
increase in the number of MPs in 2017 was triggered by the higher number of parties that entered
parliament (seven parties in 2017 compared to five in 2013) and an asymmetric distribution of votes
which, as explained below, led to a high number of additional seats.
2.1 An ever-increasing number of MPs?
Over time, the size of the German Bundestag has grown. While 410 MPs were elected at the first
federal election in 1949, the number of parliamentarians rose to 509 in 1953, to 519 in 1957 and
subsequently remained stable. In order to accommodate MPs from East Germany after reunification,
the regular size of the German Bundestag was increased to 656 in 1990. A first downsizing took effect
in 2002 when the number of constituencies was reduced by about 10% (from 328 to 299). The number
of MPs reached 614 in 2005, 622 in 2009, 631 in 2013 and the record of 709 MPs after the 2017 election
(see also Zeh 2018). This is the result of the current electoral rules in combination with changing voting
behaviour and increasing fragmentation of the German party system. With respect to this built-in
dynamic of the number of MPs, Germany is an extraordinary case.
In comparison with other European countries, the lower chamber of Germany is quite big, and the
number of inhabitants represented by one MP is also among the highest in Europe (see Ehrhard and
Rozenberg 2018; Zeh 2018). Among the ten EU countries with the highest number of inhabitants per
MP in the lower chamber, Germany is currently only overtaken by Spain where one MP represents
roughly 133.000 citizens (see Table 1). However, France is contemplating a constitutional revision to
decrease the size of its lower chamber by 25% (Rozenberg 2020). In Italy, a constitutional referendum
to reduce the number of MPs (from 630 to 400 in the Chamber of Deputies and from 315 to 200 in the
Senate) had already been called for 29 March 2020 but was postponed because of COVID-19.
Maggio 2020
6 of 30
SoG Working Paper 60/2020
Table 1: Lower chambers of European countries in comparison
Country
Population (Number
of inhabitants)
Number of MPs
Number of
inhabitants per MP
Czech Republic
10.625.695
200
53.128
Romania
19.473.936
329
59.191
Belgium
11.422.068
150
76.147
Poland
37.978.548
460
82.562
Italy
60.431.283
630
95.923
United Kingdom
66.488.991
650
102.291
Netherlands
17.231.017
150
114.873
France
66.987.244
577
116.096
Germany
82.927.922
709
116.965
Spain
46.723.749
350
133.496
Source: Own calculations, based on the IPU Parline database on national parliaments.
2.2. The electoral rules for the German Bundestag
Currently, 50% of the regular number of 598 MPs are elected directly in 299 single-member
constituencies, the other half is elected via closed party lists. At the federal election, each voter has two
votes: the first vote determines which candidates are sent to the Bundestag directly from the
constituencies; the second vote is cast for a party list.
Parties only participate in the proportional distribution of seats if they gained at least 5% of the votes
nationally or at least three constituencies. Individuals who have won their constituency by simple
majority can always take up their seat. As the next step, the number of seats for each party is
determined on the basis of the share of second votes at the national level. This step is repeated for each
region. Seats are allocated to each party in line with the proportion of second votes that it received.
Candidates on the parties’ regional lists are, however, only taken into consideration after all
candidates who won constituencies are deducted from the number of allocated seats for the respective
party. To sum up, the first vote thus in general only determines who fills the seat for a party, it does not
determine this party’s share of the seats.
Maggio 2020
7 of 30
SoG Working Paper 60/2020
But two important specifities have a major impact on the allocation of seats and lead to the creation
of additional seats beyond the regular number of 598 MPs. On the one hand, so-called overhang seats
(“Überhangmandate”) occur if a party wins more seats or constituencies in one region 1 than the
number that would actually correspond to its share of second votes in that region and can therefore
send more MPs to the Bundestag. This follows the principle that every MP who is elected in a
constituency takes up a seat. On the other hand, all other parties are compensated for any overhang
seats: In order to ensure that the composition of the Bundestag is fully proportionally representative,
so-called balance seats (“Ausgleichsmandate”) are created. The latter mechanism was introduced due
to judgements by the Federal Constitutional Court.
From 1949 to 1990, a total of (only) 17 overhang seats was created in 11 federal elections. The number
of such additional seats rose to 6 in 1990 and 16 in 1994. In 1997, the Federal Constitutional Court ruled
that overhang seats were constitutional. There were 13 overhang seats in 1998, 5 in 2002, 16 in 2005
and 24 in 2009. Overhang seats increased and significantly stabilized government majorities in the
Bundestag in 1994, 1998 and 2002 (see Saalfeld 2005: 215).
In 2008, the Federal Constitutional Court to a certain extent revised its previous ruling from 1997
and decided that the effect known as “negative vote weight” was unconstitutional because parties
obtaining overhang mandates would have risked losing mandates in the same or in another region if
they had obtained a higher share of second votes in the election (Bundesverfassungsgericht 3 July
2008). The court referred to the 2005 election where the SPD could have claimed one more seat in the
Bundestag, if roughly 19,500 fewer (!) second votes had been cast for this party.
A new procedure for allocating seats was subsequently also deemed unconstitutional by the
Federal Constitutional Court in 2012 (Bundesverfassungsgericht 25 July 2012). The revised electoral
law that afterwards entered into force before the 2013 federal election now compensates all overhang
seats through balance seats, although according to that latest judgement up to 15 overhang seats
would be permissible. Balance seats can also emerge solely to ensure fully proportional representation.
1
The term refers to the seats of MPs who were elected in constituencies beyond the number of seats which the party was actually allocated on the basis of its share of the
second votes.
Maggio 2020
8 of 30
SoG Working Paper 60/2020
3. The allocation of seats in practice
The effects of the electoral law provisions on the allocation of seats have been clearly visible in the
federal elections of 2013 and 2017. They will also shape the size of the Bundestag at the next election
and, according to estimates from early 2020, they could create the biggest Bundestag ever.
3.1 Federal election of 22 September 2013
In the 2013 election, a total of 4 overhang seats were created (all of them for the CDU) and 29 balance
seats emerged (see Table 2). With a vote share of 4.7% and 4.8% respectively, FDP and AfD failed to pass
the threshold and did not send any MPs to the Bundestag. If they had entered parliament, there would
have been a higher number of overhang seats and balance seats because based on their proportions of
second votes the other four parties would have obtained fewer mandates.
The 2013 election also shows the high complexity of ensuring full proportionality. Despite four
overhang seats for the CDU, not this party, but its sister party CSU initially was the mostoverrepresented party in the Bundestag: Its share of the second votes among the parties entering
parliament was 8.8%, but the 56 seats allocated to the CSU corresponded to 9.3% of the seats. As a
consequence, all other parties (including the CDU) received balance seats for the overrepresentation
of the CSU. Interestingly, they do not receive balance seats for the four overhang mandates of the CDU,
because the even CDU was still under-represented: Its share of the second votes among the parties
entering parliament was 40.5%, but the 242 seats initially allocated to the CDU (the four overhang seats
included!) only corresponded to 40.2% of the seats (see Behnke 2014: 22). Thus, the CDU received 13
balance seats in addition to 4 overhang seats. A total of 16 balance seats went to SPD, Left Party and
Green Party (see Table 2).
Maggio 2020
9 of 30
SoG Working Paper 60/2020
Table 2: Seat allocation after the federal election of 22 September 2013
Political Group
Number
of seats
Overhang
seats
Balance
seats
Christian Democratic Union and Christian
Social Union (CDU/CSU)
311
4
13
Social Democratic Party (SPD)
193
-
10
Alternative for Germany (AfD)
0
-
-
Free Democratic Party (FDP)
0
-
-
Left Party (Die Linke)
64
-
4
Green Party (Die Grünen)
63
-
2
Total
631
4
29
Source: Bundeswahlleiter.de
3.2 Federal election of 24 September 2017
In the 2017 election CDU and CSU received 246 seats. 43 seats of them were overhang seats.
Considering a total of 46 overhang seats, all but three of them went to CDU and CSU. The provision of
balance seats compensated the other parties in order to ensure that representation was still fully
proportional (taking into account the 5% threshold). Other parties therefore received 65 balance seats.
This meant that 65 candidates on these parties’ closed lists entered the Bundestag, too.
These two mechanisms led to an “oversize” Bundestag which consists of 709 MPs since the
September 2017 election. The regular size would be 598, but 46 overhang seats and 65 balance seats
came on top (see Table 3).
Maggio 2020
10 of 30
SoG Working Paper 60/2020
Table 3: Seat allocation after the federal election of 24 September 2017
Political Group
Number
of seats
Overhang
seats
Balance
seats
Christian Democratic Union and Christian
Social Union (CDU/CSU)
246
43
-
Social Democratic Party (SPD)
153
3
19
Alternative for Germany (AfD)
94
-
11
Free Democratic Party (FDP)
80
-
15
Left Party (Die Linke)
69
-
10
Green Party (Die Grünen)
67
-
10
Total
709
46
65
Source: Bundeswahlleiter.de
3.3 Predicted seat allocation based on current opinion polls
In late 2019 and early 2020, a Bundestag composed of more than 800 MPs seemed to be possible or
even likely after the next election (see Pukelsheim 2019). However, the recent shifts in public opinion
because of the COVID-19 crisis mean that if there was an election tomorrow, the next Bundestag would
have 739 MPs (see Table 4) and be only slightly bigger than the current one.2
2
The website www.mandatsrechner.de by Christian Brugger allows to calculate the size of the Bundestag on the basis of current public opinion surveys (last accessed on
16 May 2020).
Maggio 2020
11 of 30
SoG Working Paper 60/2020
Table 4: Seat allocation based on voting intention as of 15 May 2020
Political Group
Number
of seats
Christian Democratic Union and Christian
Social Union (CDU/CSU)
299
Social Democratic Party (SPD)
118
Alternative for Germany (AfD)
79
Free Democratic Party (FDP)
39
Left Party (Die Linke)
63
Green Party (Die Grünen)
141
Total
739
Source: Mandatsrechner.de, Forschungsgruppe Wahlen opinion poll of 15 May 2020. The
calculation takes into account overhang seats and balance seats but does not list them separately.
Maggio 2020
12 of 30
SoG Working Paper 60/2020
4.
Reforming the
Bundestag: A trilemma
electoral
system
for
the
For decades, proposals for electoral reform were unable to find cross-party majorities and there was
a “strong support for the status quo” (Saalfeld 2005: 224). In 2008 and 2012, however, the Federal
Constitutional Court issued two verdicts against certain provisions of the electoral law, specifically
against the mechanism for the allocation of seats (see section 2.2, above).
The changing voting behaviour in Germany turned overhang seats into something that could more
easily tip the balance in favour or against a parliamentary majority for a governing coalition. Party
system change has further increased the problem. A quasi-automaticity from the double trend of
shrinking large parties and greater fragmentation leads to a higher overall number of MPs. There is no
upper limit for the size of the Bundestag, because the electoral rules do not set a legal limit and the 5%
threshold only creates a hypothetic mathematical limit. Public opinion is unfavourable towards a
Bundestag with 700 or more MPs. This was just superseded by other factors such as the entry of the
AfD into the Bundestag and the long negotiations on forming a new government in 2017.
After the last election, Wolfgang Schäuble, the Speaker of the Bundestag, therefore established an
informal cross-party working group to make a proposal for changing the electoral law in order to
downsize the Bundestag. But unsuccessful in finding a compromise, the working group broke up in
April 2019 (see Jacob 2019).
There are four main avenues for reforming the electoral system for the Bundestag: 1) to reduce the
number of constituencies, 2) to stop compensating a certain number of overhang seats with balance
seats, 3) to introduce a maximum number of total MPs, and 4) to change the regular 50:50 ratio between
MPs elected in constituencies and MPs elected via the party lists. Each of these avenues would have a
downsizing effect.
The first avenue is to reduce the number of constituencies. Back in 2002, the number of
constituencies was already cut by about 10% from 328 to 299. Any reduction of the number of singlemember constituencies, of course, means redrawing constituency boundaries across the country.
A second avenue is to stop compensating the first 15 overhang seats through balance seats (the
number of 15 seats comes from the 2012 judgement of the Federal Constitutional Court that allows for
this number of seats to remain uncompensated). Currently all overhang mandates are compensated,
but legally it is possible to exempt 15 overhang seats.
The third out of four possible avenues to reduce the number of MPs is to introduce a maximum
number of total MPs – currently there is none. This would cap the total number of MPs at a certain level
and no additional list candidates would enter that Bundestag once it has reached a pre-fixed number
total of MPs. Alternatively the worst-performing constituency winners would not be allowed to take up
their seat.
Maggio 2020
13 of 30
SoG Working Paper 60/2020
Finally, the fourth avenue is to change the regular 50:50 ratio between 299 MPs elected in singlemember constituencies and 299 MPs elected via closed regional party lists. In practice, balance seats
and overhang seats already change the 50:50 ratio: 299 MPs (42%) were elected in constituencies while
410 MPs (58%) reached the Bundestag via their place on the respective regional party list in 2017.
This paper now proposes to look at the situation as a trilemma which is currently solved via an everincreasing number of MPs in the Bundestag.3 A trilemma is composed of three competing priorities:
Two competing priorities can be met at the expense of the third priority.
In the case of the size of the Bundestag the three competing priorities are, firstly, to
ensure/maintain proportional representation of parties; secondly, to ensure/maintain a close
relationship between MPs and constituents; and, thirdly, to ensure/maintain proportional
representation of regions.
4.1 Proportional representation of parties
The composition of the German Bundestag shall be fully proportional to the result of the election (in
terms of the share of second votes of all parties that have reached at least 5% nationally or won at least
three constituencies). According to this priority, all overhang seats shall therefore be fully
compensated through balance seats.
4.2. Close relationship between MPs and constituents
The second priority is that the relationship between MPs, primarily that of the MPs elected directly
in single-member districts, and their constituents shall not become less close through a reduction of
the overall number of constituents that would increase the average number of citizens in a
constituency and as well as its territorial size.
4.3 Proportional representation of regions
The third priority states that regions (16 Länder) shall be represented fully proportionally in the
Bundestag with the regular number of seats for each region being exactly twice the number of
constituencies. Any overhang seats and balance seats shall be calculated at the regional level and not
at the national level.
3
Please note that a reversal of the electoral trends, a roll-back of party system change and decreasing political fragmentation in Germany would reduce (!) the overall
number of MPs in the next Bundestag.
Maggio 2020
14 of 30
SoG Working Paper 60/2020
5. Downsizing proposals and their consequences
The debate about how to lower the number of MPs in the next Bundestag has been ongoing since
2017. Three major proposals to downsize the Bundestag have been put forward and gathered
significant attention. In May 2019, Wolfgang Schäuble (CDU), the Speaker of the German Bundestag,
made his ideas public (Deutscher Bundestag 17 May 2019). Deputy Speaker Thomas Oppermann (SPD)
articulated his views a few months later (ZEIT ONLINE 21 September 2019). The three mainstream
opposition groups (FDP, Left Party, Greens), finally, tabled their joint proposal in November 2019
(Deutscher Bundestag 6 November 2019). Each of these three proposals is presented in turn and a brief
comparative assessment is made afterwards.
5.1 Overview of major downsizing proposals
5.1.1 Schäuble proposal
Wolfgang Schäuble proposed a reduction of the number of constituencies by 10% (270 instead of
299 single-member districts) and a modification of the 50:50 ratio according to which one half of the
598 regular MPs is elected directly in 299 constituencies and the other half via parties’ regional lists.
Importantly, his proposal also foresees not to compensate other parties for the first 15 overhang seats.
5.1.2 Oppermann proposal
Thomas Oppermann also proposed to reduce the number of constituencies and to modify the 50:50
ratio. The reduction would take place two steps: The initial cut would reduce the number of
constituencies by 20 (to 279), another 20 constituencies would disappear for the following election
(final number of constituencies: 259). The other elements of the electoral law remain unchanged.
5.1.3 Proposal by the opposition parties FDP, Greens and Left party
Just like the two previous proposals, the three opposition parties also proposed to reduce of number
of constituencies and modify the provision that half of the 598 MPs are elected directly in 299
Maggio 2020
15 of 30
SoG Working Paper 60/2020
constituencies, the other half on the parties’ regional lists. Importantly, the calculation of balance seats
happens at the national level and not for each region.
5.2. Comparison and assessment of the downsizing proposals
All three proposals do the following: They reduce the number of constituencies and they modify the
provision that MPs are elected half and half. In terms of the trilemma, the three proposals make the
relationship between citizens and constituency MPs less close. As a consequence they reduce the
probability of overhang seats and balance seats and would have a downsizing effect on any future
Bundestag (see Table 5).
Table 5: Comparison of the three proposals
W. Schäuble
(Speaker, CDU)
T. Oppermann (Deputy
Speaker, SPD)
Opposition:
FDP/ Left Party/ Greens
Number of seats
598+x
598+x
630+x
Number
of
constituencies
270
Overhang and
balance seats
Yes, but less likely and
no compensation for the
first 15 overhang seats
279
later 259
Yes, but less likely
250
Yes, but a lot less likely
Source: Own elaboration.
Under the Schäuble proposal, the relationship between citizens and constituency MPs would be
slightly less close, both overhang seats and balance seats would be less likely. Parties would no longer
be fully proportionally represented according to their share of second votes at the federal level. The
number of balance seats would be significantly lower (first 15 overhang seats not compensated). While
the proposal would doubtlessly reduce the number of MPs, it would distort the currently achieved full
proportional representation of parties.
Schäuble’s proposal actually favours CDU and CSU. These two parties win practically all
constituencies (231 out of 299 in 2017) and therefore excessively benefit from overhang seats. If the first
15 overhang seats were not compensated, this would be a deviation from strictly following the principle
of proportional representation and de facto means 15 extra seats for CDU and CSU. Such a provision,
Maggio 2020
16 of 30
SoG Working Paper 60/2020
although covered by the 2012 judgement of the Federal Constitutional Court, could theoretically tip the
balance at the next election and help a CDU/CSU-led coalition to command a parliamentary majority.
In his role as speaker, Schäuble has thus not been fully impartial. But it would already be a major
step for CDU/CSU to concede to a reduction in the number of constituencies, because these two parties
win most constituencies and their MPs are very reluctant to accept lowering the number of
constituencies.4
Under the Oppermann proposal, full proportional representation of parties would still be achieved.
The two-step reduction of the number of constituencies is more far-reaching than in the Schäuble
proposal and would ultimately cut them by 13%. The relationship between citizens and constituency
MPs would be even less close; and due to the new rules governing the electoral law both overhang seats
and balance seats would become less likely.
The Opposition proposal would also mean a less close relationship between citizens and the MP of
their constituency. Overhang seats and balance seats would be less probable. In addition, regions
would no longer fully proportionally represented according to their share of the population. This, in
turn, would also lead to a lower probability of overhang seats and balance seats. In terms of reducing
the number of constituencies (to 250), the joint proposal by FDP, Greens and Left party is certainly the
most radical proposal. At the same time, it increases the regular number of MPs (to 630) and therefore
significantly alters the 50:50 ratio between the two logics. In summary, these ingredients make
overhang seats and balance seats a lot less likely.
The opposition proposal was debated in the Bundestag in November 2019 and the topic was the
subject of another plenary debate in early 2020 (Deutscher Bundestag 29 January 2020). There were
reports that the SPD seemed to think about collaborating with the opposition in order to reform the
electoral system, but if the SPD did not seek a common position with its CDU/CSU coalition partner,
this would constitute a serious blow to the Grand Coalition.
4
185 out of 200 CDU MPs in the current Bundestag and all CSU MPs were directly elected in a constituency.
Maggio 2020
17 of 30
SoG Working Paper 60/2020
6. Conclusion
The six-party Bundestag of today has grown out of its three-party beginnings in the 1960s. The
changes in the party system in conjunction with the 2008 and 2012 judgements of the Federal
Constitutional Court have led to the existence of an “oversize” Bundestag with 709 MPs since 2017. Now
time is running out to agree on a downsizing reform that would cut the number of constituencies for
the next regular election in September 2021, because parties can hold their assemblies to elect the
constituency candidates from June 2020 onwards.
In early 2020, the chances for a compromise were increasing but have not materialised (yet). The
experience from other countries shows that agreeing an electoral reform can take some time.
The COVID-19 crisis has had a double-impact: On the one hand, it was not possible to agree on a
reform by Easter. But on the other hand, at least as of May 2020, the urgency of the problem (the risk of
a Bundestag with more than 800 MPs after the next election) has slightly decreased, because the
expected size of the Bundestag is highly sensitive to shifts in voting preferences: If parties that win
(most) constituencies also receive a relatively high number of second votes, then there is automatically
a lower number of overhang seats (and balance seats). This happened when the voting intention for
CDU/CSU rose to 40%.
There are certain elements that could facilitate an electoral reform of the Bundestag: The entryinto-force of any (major) reform could be delayed to the 2025 election and, furthermore, as proposed by
Thomas Oppermann, the number of constituencies could be reduced in two steps.
For 2021, however, only one out of the previously presented four avenues still appears to be open:
To limit the overall number of MPs. The opposition in the Bundestag does not support such a move, but
can be outvoted, and it is far from certain whether the Federal Constitutional Court would validate a
new electoral law with such a provision. Nevertheless, the governing parties seem to be willing to go
into that direction.
One thing is therefore certain: The need to downsize the Bundestag and the need to simplify the
electoral law, which has become overly complicated and almost incomprehensible for the ordinary
citizen, will remain on Germany’s political agenda for the time being.
Maggio 2020
18 of 30
SoG Working Paper 60/2020
Bibliography
Behnke, Joachim (2014), 'Das neue Wahlgesetz im Test der Bundestagswahl 2013', Zeitschrift für
Parlamentsfragen, 45 (1), 17-37.
Bundesverfassungsgericht 'Provisions of the Federal Electoral Act from which the effect of
negative
voting
weight
emerges
unconstitutional',
<https://www.bundesverfassungsgericht.de/SharedDocs/Pressemitteilungen/EN/2008/bvg08068.html>, accessed 17 May 2020.
--- 'New procedure for allocating delegates’ seats in the German Bundestag unconstitutional',
<https://www.bundesverfassungsgericht.de/SharedDocs/Pressemitteilungen/EN/2012/bvg12058.html>, accessed 17 May 2020.
Deutscher Bundestag 'Gesetzentwurf der Fraktionen FDP, DIE LINKE. und BÜNDNIS 90/DIE
GRÜNEN:
Entwurf
eines
Gesetzes
zur
Änderung
des
Bundeswahlgesetzes',
<https://dip21.bundestag.de/dip21/btd/19/146/1914672.pdf>, accessed 17 May 2020.
--- 'Schäuble zur Wahlrechtsreform: Müssen es in dieser Wahlperiode schaffen',
<https://www.bundestag.de/dokumente/textarchiv/2019/kw20-juristenkommission-643570>,
accessed 17 May 2020.
--'Wahlrechtsreform:
Keine
Annäherung
der
Standpunkte',
<https://www.bundestag.de/dokumente/textarchiv/2020/kw05-de-aktuelle-stunde-demokratie679598>, accessed 17 May 2020.
Ehrhard, Thomas and Rozenberg, Olivier (2018), 'La réduction du nombre de parlementaires estelle justifiée ? Une évaluation ex-ante', LIEPP Working Paper (Paris: Laboratory for Interdisciplinary
Evaluation of Public Policies).
Jacob, Marc S. (2019), 'Von der Quadratur des Kreises zur Wahlsystemreform? Verhandlungen
über das Wahlrecht im 19. Deutschen Bundestag', Zeitschrift für Parlamentsfragen, 50 (3), 478-93.
Pukelsheim, Friedrich (2019), 'Bundestag der Tausend – Berechnungen zu Reformvorschlägen für
das Bundeswahlgesetz', Zeitschrift für Parlamentsfragen, 50 (3), 469-77.
Rozenberg, Olivier (2020), 'La réduction du nombre de parlementaires, l’impossible réforme ?',
Horizons publics, forthcoming.
Saalfeld, Thomas (2005), 'Germany: Stability and strategy in a mixed-member proportional
system', in Michael Gallagher and Paul Mitchell (eds.), The politics of electoral systems (Oxford
University Press), 209-29.
Maggio 2020
19 of 30
SoG Working Paper 60/2020
Scarrow, Susan E. (2003), 'Germany: The Mixed-Member System as a Political Compromise', in
Matthew Shugart and Martin P. Wattenberg (eds.), Mixed-Member Electoral Systems : The Best of
Both Worlds? (Oxford University Press), 55-69.
Zeh, Wolfgang (2018), 'Abgeordnetenzahl im Parlament – zu groß, zu klein, gerade richtig?',
Zeitschrift für Parlamentsfragen, 49 (4), 744-56.
ZEIT ONLINE 'Thomas Oppermann will Wahlrechtsreform noch dieses Jahr',
<https://www.zeit.de/politik/deutschland/2019-09/bundestag-thomas-oppermann-einigungwahlrechtsreform-verkleinerung>, accessed 17 May 2020.
Zittel, Thomas (2018), 'Electoral Systems in Context: Germany', in Erik S. Herron, Robert J.
Pekkanen, and Matthew S. Shugart (eds.), The Oxford Handbook of Electoral Systems (Oxford
University Press), 780-802.
Maggio 2020
20 of 30
SoG Working Paper 60/2020
Author information
Valentin Kreilinger is Policy and Research Coordinator at the European Liberal Forum and a
Visiting Fellow at the Centre for Parliamentary Studies of LUISS Guido Carli University. He was
Research Fellow at Notre Europe - Institut Jacques Delors, Paris, and Policy Fellow at the Jacques
Delors Institute, Berlin. He holds a PhD from the Hertie School of Governance and an MSc in
Politics and Government in the European Union from the London School of Economics.5
Contact Information
[email protected]
5
My comments reflect my own views and do not engage the European Liberal Forum or the European Parliament.
Maggio 2020
21 of 30
SoG Working Paper 60/2020
About Luiss School of Government
The Luiss School of Government (SoG) is a graduate school training high-level public and private
officials to handle political and government decision-making processes. It is committed to provide
theoretical and hands-on skills of good government to the future heads of the legislative, governmental
and administrative institutions, industry, special-interest associations, non-governmental groups,
political parties, consultancy firms, public policy research institutions, foundations and public affairs
institutions.
The SoG provides its students with the skills needed to respond to current and future public policy
challenges. While public policy was enclosed within the state throughout most of the last century, the
same thing cannot be said for the new century. Public policy is now actively conducted outside and
beyond the state. Not only in Europe but also around the world, states do not have total control over
those public political processes that influence their decisions. While markets are Europeanised and
globalised, the same cannot be said for the state.
The educational contents of the SoG reflect the need to grasp this evolving scenario since it combines
the theoretical aspects of political studies (such as political science, international relations, economics,
law, history, sociology, organisation and management) with the practical components of government
(such as those connected with the analysis and evaluation of public policies, public opinion, interests’
representation, advocacy and organizational leadership).
For more information about the Luiss School of Government and its academic and research activities
visit. www.sog.luiss.it
Maggio 2020
22 of 30
SoG Working Paper 60/2020
Submission Guidelines
Luiss School of Government welcomes unsolicited working papers in English and Italian from
interested scholars and practitioners. Papers are submitted to anonymous peer review. Manuscripts
can be submitted by sending them at
[email protected] . Authors should prepare complete text and a
separate second document with information identifying the author. Papers should be between 8,000
and 12,000 words (excluding notes and references). All working papers are expected to begin with an
abstract of 150 words or less, which should summarise the main arguments and conclusions of the
article. Manuscripts should be single spaced, 11 point font, and in Times New Roman.
Details of the author's institutional affiliation, full postal and email addresses and other contact
information must be included on a separate cover sheet. Any acknowledgements should be included
on the cover sheet as should a note of the exact length of the article. A short biography of up to 75 words
should also be submitted.
All diagrams, charts and graphs should be referred to as figures and consecutively numbered. Tables
should be kept to a minimum and contain only essential data. Each figure and table must be given an
Arabic numeral, followed by a heading, and be referred to in the text. Tables should be placed at the
end of the file and prepared using tabs. Any diagrams or maps should be supplied separately in
uncompressed .TIF or .JPEG formats in individual files. These should be prepared in black and white.
Tints should be avoided, use open patterns instead. If maps and diagrams cannot be prepared
electronically, they should be presented on good quality white paper. If mathematics are included, 1/2
is preferred.
It is the author's responsibility to obtain permission for any copyrighted material included in the
article. Confirmation of Working this should be included on a separate sheet included with the file.
Maggio 2020
23 of 30
SoG Working Paper 60/2020
SoG Working Papers
The Luiss School of Government aims to produce cutting-edge work in a wide range of fields and
disciplines through publications, seminars, workshops, conferences that enhance intellectual
discourse and debate. Research is carried out using comparative approaches to explore different areas,
many of them with a specifically European perspective. The aim of this research activities is to find
solutions to complex, real-world problems using an interdisciplinary approach. LUISS School of
Government encourages its academic and student community to reach their full potential in research
and professional development, enhancing career development with clear performance standards and
high-quality. Through this strong focus on high research quality, LUISS School of Government aims
to understanding and influencing the external research and policy agenda.
This working paper series is one of the main avenues for the communication of these research findings
and opens with these contributions.
WP #1 – Sergio FABBRINI, Intergovermentalism and Its Outcomes: the Implications of the Euro
Crisis on the European Union, SOG-Working Paper 1, January 2013.
WP #2 - Barbara GUASTAFERRO, Reframing Subsidiarity Inquiry from an “EU value-added” to an
“EU non encroachment” test? Some Insights from National Parliaments’ Reasoned Opinions, SOGWorking Paper 2, February 2013.
WP #3 - Karolina BOROŃSKA-HRYNIEWIECKA, Regions and subsidiarity after Lisbon:
overcoming the ‘regional blindness’?, SOG-Working Paper 3, March 2013.
WP #4 - Cristina FASONE, Competing concepts in the early warning mechanism, SOG-Working
Paper 4, March 2013.
WP #5 - Katarzyna GRANAT, Institutional Design of the Member States for the Ex Post Subsidiarity
Scrutiny, SOG-Working Paper 5, March 2013.
WP #6 – Cecilia Emma SOTTILOTTA, Political Risk: Concepts, Definitions, Challenges, SOGWorking Paper 6, April 2013.
Maggio 2020
24 of 30
SoG Working Paper 60/2020
WP #7 – Gabriele MAESTRI, Il voto libero: la necessità di regole chiare e trasparenti sul
procedimento preparatorio e di un contenzioso che decida rapidamente, SOG-Working Paper 7,
July 2013.
WP #8 – Arlo POLETTI & Dirl DE BIÈVRE, Rule enforcement and cooperation in the WTO: legal
vulnerability, issue characteristics, and negotiation strategies in the DOHA round, SOG-Working
Paper 8, September 2013.
WP #9 - Sergio FABBRINI, The Parliamentary election of the Commission President: costraints on
the Parlamentarization of the European Union, SOG-Working Paper 9, October 2013.
WP #10 - Lorenzo DONATELLI, La disciplina delle procedure negoziali informali nel "triangolo
decisionale" unionale: dagli accordi interistituzionali alla riforma dell'articolo 70 del regolamento
del Parlamento Europeo, SOG Working Paper 10, October 2013.
WP #11 - Mattia GUIDI & Yannis KARAGIANNIS, The Eurozone crisis, decentralized bargaining and
the theory of EU institutions, SOG Working Paper 11, November 2013.
WP #12 - Carlo CERUTTI, Political Representation in the European Parliament: a Reform Proposal,
SOG Working Papers 12, January 2014.
WP #13 – Dessislava CHERNEVA-MOLLOVA, The EP’s rules of procedure and ther implications for
the Eu institutional balance, SOG Working Papers 13, February 2014.
WP #14 - Luca BARTOLUCCI, The European Parliament and the 'opinions' of national parliaments,
SOG Working Papers 14, February 2014.
WP #15 - Leonardo MORLINO, Transitions to Democracy. What We Know and What We Should
Know, SOG Working Papers 15, April 2014.
WP #16 - Romano FERRARI ZUMBINI, Overcoming overlappings (in altre parole...oltre 'questa'
Europa), SOG Working Papers 16, April 2014.
WP #17 - Leonardo MORLINO, How to assess democracy in Latin America?, SOG Working Papers 17,
April 2014.
Maggio 2020
25 of 30
SoG Working Paper 60/2020
WP #18 - Nicola LUPO & Giovanni PICCIRILLI, Some effects of European Courts on national sources
of law: the evolutions of legality in the Italian legal order, SOG Working Papers 18, May 2014.
WP #19 – Cristina FASONE, National Parliaments under "external" fiscal constraints. The case of
Italy, Portugal, and Spain facing the Eurozone crisis, SOG Working Papers 19, June 2014.
WP #20 - Elena GRIGLIO & Nicola LUPO, Towards an asymmetric European Union, without an
asymmetric European Parliament, SOG Working Papers 20, June 2014.
WP #21 - Ian COOPER, Parliamentary oversight of the EU after the crisis: on the creation of the
"Article 13" interparliamentary conference, SOG Working Papers 21, August 2014.
WP #22 – Anne PINTZ, National Parliaments overcoming collective action problems inherent in the
early warning mechanism: the cases of Monti II and EPPO, SOG Working Papers 22, October 2014.
WP #23 – Valentina Rita SCOTTI, Religious freedom in Turkey: foreign models and national
identity, SOG Working Papers 23, January 2015.
WP #24 – Davide A. CAPUANO, Overcoming overlappings in the European Union (entia non sunt
multiplicanda praeter necessitatem …), SOG Working Papers 24, February 2015.
WP #25 – Francesco ALICINO, The road to equality. Same-sex relationships within the european
context: the case of Italy, SOG Working Papers, July 2015.
WP #26 – Maria ROMANIELLO, Assessing upper chambers' role in the EU decision-making process,
SOG Working Papers 26, August 2015.
WP #27 – Ugljesa ZVEKIC, Giorgio SIRTORI, Alessandro SABBINI and Alessandro DOWLING,
United Nations against corruption in post-conflict societies, SOG Working Papers 27, September
2015
WP #28 – Matteo BONELLI, Safeguarding values in the European Union: the European Parliament,
article 7 and Hungary, SOG Working Papers 28, October 2015
Maggio 2020
26 of 30
SoG Working Paper 60/2020
WP #29 - Ludovica BENEDIZIONE & Valentina Rita SCOTTI, Equally victims? Post-revolutionary
Tunisia and transitional justice, SOG Working Papers 29, November 2015.
WP #30 - Marie-Cécile CADILHAC, The TTIP negotiation process: a turning point in the
understanding of the European parliament's role in the procedure for concluding EU external
agreements?, SOG Working Papers 30, December 2015.
WP #31 - Francesca BIONDI & Irene PELLIZZONE, Open or secret? Parliamentary rules of
procedures in secret ballots, SOG Working Papers 31, December 2015.
WP #32 - Giulio STOLFI, Tempi (post-)moderni: nuovi impulsi normativi europei alla prova delle
sovrapposizioni, SOG Working Papers 32, January 2016.
WP #33 – Diane FROMAGE, Regional Parliaments and the early warning system: an assessment six
years after the entry into force of the Lisbon treaty, SOG Working Papers 33, April 2016.
WP #34 – Luca DI DONATO, A behavioral principal-agent theory to study corruption and tax
evasion, SOG Working Papers 34, July 2016.
WP #35 – Giuseppe PROVENZANO, The external policies of the EU towards the southern
neighbourhood: time for restarting or sliding into irrelevance?, SOG Workin Papers 35, September
2016.
WP #36 – Rosetta COLLURA, Bruegel, EU think tank in the EU multi-level governance, SOG
Working Papers 36, October 2016.
WP #37 - Franco BRUNI, Sergio FABBRINI and Marcello MESSORI, Europe 2017: Make it or Break
it?, SOG Working Papers 37, January 2017.
WP #38 - Alina SCRIPCA, The Principle of Subsidiarity in the Netherlands and Romania.
Comparative Assessment of the Opinions Issued Under the Early Warning Mehanism, SOG
Working Papers 38, April 2017.
WP #39 - Eleonora BARDAZZI, Omar CARAMASCHI, Italian and European Citizens' Initiatives:
Challenge and Opportunities, SOG Working Papers 39, April 2017.
Maggio 2020
27 of 30
SoG Working Paper 60/2020
WP #40 - Diane FROMAGE and Renato IBRIDO, Democratic Accountability and Parliamentary
Oversight the ECB. The Banking Union Experience, SOG Working Papers 40, June 2017.
WP #41 – Marco CECILI, La sussidiarietà e l’early warning system tra diritto e politica. Il caso della
c.d. “Direttiva Tabacco” del 2014, SOG Working Papers 41, September 2017.
WP #42 - Margherita SPERDUTI, La Tutela Giurisdizionale dell'Autonomia Locale. Italia e Spagna
a Confronto, SOG Working Papers 42, October 2017.
WP #43 - Martinho LUCAS PIRES, The Shortcomings of the EU Framework for Transnational Data
Transfers and the Need for an international Approach, SOG Working Papers 43, November 2017.
WP #44 - Suzanne POPPELAARS, The Involvement of National Parliaments in the Current ESM
and the Possible Future EMF, SOG Working Papers 44, April 2018.
WP #45 - Valerio DI PORTO, Il Comitato per la Legislazione, Venti anni dopo, SOG Working Papers
45, July 2018.
WP #46 - Guido RIVOSECCHI, Considerazioni sparse in ordine alle attuali tendenze della
produzione normativa, SOG Working Papers 46, March 2019.
WP #47 - Elena Maria PETRICH, Do Second Chambers Still Have a Role to Play - The Italian and the
Belgian Senates and the Process of European Integration, SOG Working Papers 47, April 2019.
WP #48 - Ylenia CITINO, Le trasformazioni in via consuetudinaria e convenzionale del governo
dallo Statuto Albertino al periodo transitorio, SOG Working Papers 48, May 2019.
WP #49 - Rafael RUBIO and Ricardo VELA, Open Parliaments around the World. Open Parliaments'
Tools in Comparative Perspective, SOG Working Papers 49, June 2019.
WP #50 - Vincenza FALLETTI, From the Constitutionalisation of the Principles of Environmental
sustainability to the Setting Up of "Institutions for the Future": a First Appraisal, SOG Working
Papers 50, July 2019.
Maggio 2020
28 of 30
SoG Working Paper 60/2020
WP #51 - Paolo GAMBACCIANI, Il rapporto tra il processo decisionale della legge Rosato ed il
"Garbage can Model": genesi e compromessi dell'ultima legge elettorale, SOG Working Papers 51,
September 2019.
WP #52 - Sebastiano CORSO, L'autonomia regolamentare dell'assemblea regionale siciliana, SOG
Working Paper 52, November 2019.
WP #53 – Marina PIETRANGELO, Legislative drafting and online consultation: a contribute to lawmaking for better regulation?, SOG Working Paper 53, December 2019.
WP #54 – Marta SIMONCINI, Il passaporto del cittadino globale. Prolusione per l’apertura dell’anno
accademico 2019-2020, Luiss “Guido Carli”, SOG Working Paper 54, December 2019.
WP #55 – Gianliborio MAZZOLA, "Autonomia differenziata. Realtà e prospettive: le bozze di preintese". SOG Working Paper 55, December 2019.
WP #56 – Jesùs Manuel OROZCO PULIDO, "Constitutional Means For Congress To Participate In
The Sanction Of Judges. A Critic To The Impeachment Against Judges In Mexico". SOG Working
Paper 56, February 2020
WP #57 – Antonio MALASCHINI, "Procedure parlamentari e legislazione d'emergenza". SOG
Working Paper 57, March 2020
WP #58 – Jonathan MURPHY, “Size and representativeness of legislatures in historical evolution;
observations from the anglo-american context. SOG Working Paper 58, March 2020
WP 59 – Michele PANDOLFELLI, “Parlamento ed emergenze: per l’istituzione di un Comitato
parlamentare per i Grandi rischi”. SOG Working Paper 59, May 2020.
Maggio 2020
29 of 30
SoG Working Paper 60/2020
Policy and Research Coordinator
Valentin Kreilinger
[email protected]
Luiss
School of Government
Via di Villa Emiliani, 14
00197 Roma
T +39 06 85225052
[email protected]
Maggio 2020
30 of 30