Belarus: does Europeanisation require a geopolitical choice?

In October 2015 a predictable presidential election took place in Belarus. Following the results of this election, the European Union suspended and subsequently lifted sanctions against hight-ranking Belarusian officials despite the lack of substantial domestic changes in the country. Moreover, Belarus remains the only country of the EU’s Eastern Neighbourhood free from any kind of ethnic or territorial conflict. In view of this, the study of the nature of Belarus-EU relations is of particular significance. Belarus and the EU have different perspectives of the relationship. In the case of Belarus, its authorities stress economic factors at the expense of the political dimension. In the case of the EU, despite recent concessions to the Belarusian authorities, the Union has not renounced its critical engagement policy towards the country. Thus, this chapter aims to understand the positions of both Minsk and Brussels in their search for an effective framework of bilateral cooperation which would also take into account the geopolitical configurations in the region. To understand the current situation of bilateral Belarus-EU relations, the chapter addresses the history and framework of these relations, the geopolitical situation in the region, as well as the views on these relations from Minsk and Brussels. Equally significant are the perspectives of the Eastern Partnership region’s development within a wider geopolitical context. Thus, the chapter addresses the role of Russia and the ‘Russian world’ concept promoted by its authorities, as well as the impact of the Ukrainian conflict on the situation in Belarus. The conclusion focuses on the mechanisms which could contribute to mutual Belarus-EU engagement within existing windows of opportunity.