Book Review: The Horn of Africa: State Formation and Decay

Journal of Contemporary African Studies, 2018

ROUTLEDGE HANDBOOK OF THE HORN OF AFRICA, 2022

The Routledge Handbook of the Horn of Africa provides a comprehensive, interdisciplinary survey of contemporary research related to the Horn of Africa. Situated at the junction of the Sahel-Saharan strip and the Arabian Peninsula, the Horn of Africa is growing in global importance due to demographic growth and the strategic importance of the Suez Canal. Divided into sections on authoritarianism and resistance, religion and politics, migration, economic integration, the military, and regimes and liberation, the contributors provide up-to-date, authoritative knowledge on the region in light of contemporary strategic concerns. The handbook investigates how political, economic, and security innovations have been implemented, sometimes with violence, by use of force or by negotiation-including 'ethnic federalism' in Ethiopia, independence in Eritrea and South Sudan, integration of the traditional authorities in the (neo)patrimonial administrations, Somalian Islamic Courts, the Sudanese Islamist regime, people's movements, multilateral operations, and the construction of an architecture for regional peace and security. Accessibly written, this handbook is an essential read for scholars, students, and policy professionals interested in the contemporary politics in the Horn of Africa.

2019

This report is the outcome of a workshop organised by the Africa Foundation in collaboration with Turkey’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Turkish International Cooperation and Development Agency (TİKA) in Ankara. The workshop, entitled ‘The Horn of Africa at the Crossroads’, sheds light on the current socio-economic, political and security changes taking place in the Horn of Africa. For decades, the peninsula has comprised a confusing mixture of political and economic systems, ranging from failed states to isolationism, rentierism and development based on authoritarian dictate. In this circumstance, relations between and within states have been uneasy at best, influenced by border conflicts, ethnic tensions and fierce competition for power. Since the rise of the new Ethiopian prime minister, Abiy Ahmed, new reforms have been introduced in the Horn. However, ethnic tensions are still on the rise and the stakes are high with elections to due next year. The prime minister faces a da-unting task of stopping ethnic tensions from spiralling out of control. Uncertainty looms on the extent to which Ahmed’s transformative policies can drive meaningful changes in Ethiopia, in the relationships among the Horn countries and beyond. Some analysts welcomed these changes and their possible spillover effects on easing tensions in the region, whereas others insisted that the results and outcomes of such changes have yet to be determined. This report proffers the views expressed by political analysts, diplomats and academicians from the Horn of Africa who took part in the workshop. It examines the political, socio-economic and security reforms currently implemented in the region,evaluates the roles played by regional and global actors and develop future projections for the region. African Foundation would like to extend its appreciation to the Turkish Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Turkish International Cooperation and Development Agency for their immense support and valuable contributions. We also like to express our sincere gratitude to the political analysts, experts, diplomats, academicians and bureaucrats from the Horn of Africa who participated in the workshop. In our quest to recommend tangible solutions to the numerous problems in the Horn of Africa, we are committed to keep working with experts, academicians and stakeholders from the region.

Cadernos de Estudos Africanos, 2002

This text was automatically generated on 1 May 2019. O trabalho Cadernos de Estudos Africanos está licenciado com uma Licença Creative Commons-Atribuição-NãoComercial-CompartilhaIgual 4.0 Internacional.

International Relations and Diplomacy, Vol. 09, No.09, 2021

Being the major geostrategic regions in the world, the Horn of Africa has become a centre of intense geopolitical competition by international and regional powers. This paper attempts to analyze the contemporary geopolitical dynamics in the Horn of Africa and its repercussions for states with particular emphasis on Ethiopia. It argues that there are four defining features of contemporary geopolitical dynamics in the Horn region: scramble for military base as a result of power projection by extra-regional states, competition for commercial ports, the Nile rivalry, and regional configuration of states amid political transitions. This geopolitical dynamics has brought opportunities for Ethiopia with regard to port access, building up naval power, infrastructure, hard currency, and regional integration. On the other hand, it has also presented challenges to Ethiopia in terms of alienating neighbors, threatening sovereignty, escalating tensions, jeopardizing religious coexistence, and maintenance of security and sustainability. Therefore, sustaining the gains and addressing the challenges of geopolitical dynamics in the Horn of Africa is vital for ensuring strategic interests of Ethiopia both domestically and in the region.

Respublica Litereria, 2018

Leaders of Somalia, Ethiopia and Eritrea who have never come face to face to build peace in the Horn have now been invited by the charismatic Premier, Abiy. Now that the Horn of Africa nations have pledged to make peace, this paper builds the case for building a peace constituency for in the Greater Horn of Africa nations that share the same history. Regional integration involves hard infrastructure - large physical networks necessary for the functioning of modern industrial nations and soft infrastructure refers to all the institutions, which are required to maintain the economic, health, and cultural and social standards of a sub-region. Recently, people of the Horn of Africa, have been engaged in debates about new bold ideas of reform presented by the new populist, energetic leader of Ethiopia Abiy who has embarked on a wide-ranging transformative reform in Ethiopia and a regional integration initiative in the Horn of Africa region. Nonetheless, questions arise. Which model of confederation, timing, actors, governing rules and institutions will be established? Will the populations of the three states have a say in this? Is the proposed confederacy owned and led by the three countries or are there other actors who move the levers of power behind the scenes? The paper recommends the development of a code of practice. The guiding principle of the code hence is that concrete processes need to be established to enable politics to be transparent, accountable, pre-dictable and exercise a level of excellence transcending personal motives and boundaries. It also recommends Alter-native conflict management approaches derive from several basic premises about the nature of conflict, change and power. While most Horn of Africa conflicts are state driven, the Somalia case presents itself for ACM where the author argues for creating avenues for speaking to al Shabaab as potential partners in peace. PM Abiy has thrown a blowlamp into the heart of Horn of Africa and Ethiopian society and polity, nerve-wracking the terms of engagement of martial titans and thrown the centre of gravity of the Red Sea arena of war into unprecedented peace trajectory. The way he deconstructed the power monsters of the Horn region is purely ontological. This strategy of conjectural rise of political liberalisation in a rough neighbourhood of the Horn is going to be a seminal lesson in international relations and in political science for a long time to come. To reduce this action to some power monger-ing aim on behalf of the PM, as constructed by the supermen of the Horn, is too simplistic. There was a sense of aggravation among the citizens of the Horn that have not seen peace in decades and he seems to be tending to this vexation with gales that are fuelling the inferno of political transformation. There are costs to be paid but as is usual with such change, it enters politics and society in relatively abstract and plain form, yet pundits expect it to land itself to the immediate and vital local polity's socio-political experience. It suggests itself, and seems within reach, only to elude and appears readily practicable only to resist realisation (Costantinos, 2018). Key words: Horn of Africa, Abiy, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Somalia, peace, integration, confederation

A fourteen lesson semestral course proposal on socio-economic and political issues of recent and contemporary relevance in the Horn of Africa, with particular reference on Ethiopia.

Horn of africa (HACNI), 2024

The Geopolitical Chessboard of the Horn of Africa: The Role of Somaliland and International Powers As the Horn of Africa remains a hotspot for geopolitical interest, the de facto state of Somaliland has increasingly caught the world's attention due to its strategic location, economic potential, and regional influence. Although unrecognized by most nations, Somaliland has established itself as a stable, peaceful entity, contrasting the instability in neighboring Somalia. This article delves into Somaliland’s evolving role on the world stage, framed within the UN Charter Chapter VII, the Montevideo Convention of 1933, and recent international dynamics surrounding the Port of Berbera and military interests from global powers. 1. UN Charter Chapter VII and Somalia’s Instability Under Chapter VII of the UN Charter, the UN Security Council is empowered to take action in situations where international peace and security are threatened. Since Somalia’s collapse in 1991, the international community, through the UN, has intervened multiple times to restore peace. However, despite these efforts, Somalia continues to face challenges related to governance, insurgency (Al-Shabaab), and foreign interference, which perpetuates instability. Somaliland’s stability, in contrast, highlights the potential for an alternative political path in the region. While Somalia remains embroiled in internal conflicts, Somaliland has built a functioning government, democratic processes, and maintains law and order. Yet, the international community remains hesitant to formally recognize Somaliland, primarily due to concerns over territorial integrity and the potential ripple effects of recognizing secessionist movements elsewhere. 2. The Montevideo Convention (1933) and Somaliland’s Right to Recognition According to the Montevideo Convention on the Rights and Duties of States (1933), a state must meet four criteria to be considered sovereign: A permanent population. A defined territory. A government. The capacity to enter into relations with other states. Somaliland meets these criteria—its borders align with the former British Somaliland, it has a stable government, and it engages in informal relations with other nations. Despite its compliance with the Montevideo criteria, the lack of formal international recognition persists, mainly due to the broader geopolitical implications of recognizing breakaway regions in Africa and beyond. The African Union (AU), in particular, has been resistant to formally acknowledge Somaliland’s independence to avoid encouraging other secessionist movements across the continent. 3. Port of Berbera and the Strategic Interests of Global Powers The Port of Berbera is rapidly becoming a key asset in the geopolitical chess game in the Horn of Africa. Its strategic location on the Red Sea, close to the Gulf of Aden, and its proximity to the Suez Canal make it a vital maritime gateway. This has attracted the attention of several global powers, including the United States, the UAE, and Ethiopia. UAE’s Presence in Somaliland: The United Arab Emirates has significantly invested in the Port of Berbera, seeing it as a critical logistical hub for its regional trade and military strategy. The UAE’s military presence in Berbera is part of its wider strategic interests, including countering Houthi rebels in Yemen and securing its economic interests in the Red Sea. U.S. Pentagon Base Request: The United States has shown increasing interest in establishing a military base in Berbera. The Pentagon views Somaliland’s stability as a key asset in the fight against terrorism in the region and a counterbalance to growing Chinese and Russian influence in the Red Sea corridor. Ethiopia’s Access to the Red Sea: Ethiopia, a landlocked nation of over 120 million people, sees the Port of Berbera as essential for its economic future. The Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) between Somaliland and Ethiopia has paved the way for Ethiopia to access the Red Sea for trade, bypassing its reliance on Djibouti. This agreement, however, has raised concerns in Somalia and other regional actors like Egypt, who view Ethiopia’s growing influence with suspicion. 4. The Role of Egypt, Ethiopia, and Regional Tensions Egypt’s concerns in the Horn of Africa, particularly with regard to Ethiopia, stem from the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) and its potential to reduce Egypt’s control over Nile waters. Egypt has increasingly aligned with Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud to counter Ethiopia’s influence. This has led to fears of a proxy war in Somalia, with regional powers like Egypt and Ethiopia backing different factions, potentially exacerbating instability in the Horn of Africa. Somaliland’s growing ties with Ethiopia, coupled with Egypt’s military support to factions within Somalia, could escalate tensions further. If unchecked, these dynamics could plunge the region into deeper conflict, threatening not only Somalia’s fragile peace but also regional stability in the Horn of Africa. 5. India’s Emerging Interest in Somaliland In a recent article published by an Indian newspaper, the growing ties between India and Somaliland were highlighted. India sees Somaliland as a strategic partner in ensuring the safe passage of its trade through the Red Sea and the Suez Canal, especially in light of recent disruptions caused by Houthi rebels in Yemen. Indian analysts have suggested that India’s Navy should establish a presence in Somaliland to safeguard its maritime routes, further adding to the geopolitical competition in the region. 6. Israel, France, and the Changing Geopolitical Landscape In addition to the UAE and the U.S., Israel and France have also expressed interest in Somaliland. Israel views Somaliland’s strategic location as crucial for its maritime security, while France, which maintains a military base in Djibouti, sees the potential for cooperation with Somaliland as part of its broader regional strategy. The combination of these foreign interests has transformed Somaliland into a key player in the Horn of Africa, despite its lack of formal recognition. Its strategic partnerships and growing economic importance may force the international community to reconsider its stance on Somaliland’s independence. 7. The Role of the UN and the Path to Peace As the Horn of Africa faces growing instability, the United Nations must play a more active role in mediating the complex web of disputes between Somalia, Somaliland, Ethiopia, and other regional actors. The UN’s current Secretary-General, António Guterres, has been criticized for failing to address these issues effectively, leaving a vacuum in leadership that threatens the region’s peace and security. A potential solution could lie in a two-state model for Somalia and Somaliland, similar to the Good Friday Agreement that brought peace to Northern Ireland. This could provide a path toward recognition and stability, helping to prevent further proxy wars and regional instability. Drawing from the successful peace processes in Ireland, where the UK, Republic of Ireland, and the U.S. worked together to broker a deal, the AU, EU, and UN could work to mediate talks between Somalia and Somaliland, leading to a peaceful resolution. Conclusion: A Crossroads for Somaliland and the Region The Horn of Africa stands at a crossroads, with Somaliland playing a pivotal role in its future. Whether the international community will seize this opportunity to promote peace and stability or allow the region to slide further into conflict remains to be seen. Recognition of Somaliland, if coupled with a broader peace framework, could be a game-changing solution that not only stabilizes the region but also fosters economic growth, security, and cooperation. The time for the UN and global powers to act is now, before the current situation spirals further into instability.