Disaster Probability of Nashik City

1 Disaster Probability of Nashik City Prof. Nitin.B.Borse, (Department of Geography) Arts, Science and Commerce College,Ozar (MIG) [email protected] A disaster is a natural or man-made (or technological) hazard that has come to fruition, resulting in an event of substantial extent causing significant physical damage or destruction, loss of life, or drastic change to the environment. A disaster can be extensively defined as any tragic event with great loss stemming from events such as earthquakes, floods, catastrophic accidents, fires, or explosions. It is a phenomenon that causes huge damage to life, property and destroys the economic, social and cultural life of people.(en.wikipedia.org). A natural disaster is the effect of a natural hazard (e.g., flood, tornado, hurricane, volcanic eruption, earthquake, heat wave, or landslide). It leads to financial, environmental or human losses. The resulting loss depends on the vulnerability of the affected population to resist the hazard, also called their resilience. If these disasters continue it would be a great danger for the earth.[1] This understanding is concentrated in the formulation: "disasters occur when hazards meet vulnerability."[2] Thus a natural hazard will not result in a natural disaster in areas without vulnerability, e.g. strong earthquakes in uninhabited areas.[3] The term natural has consequently been disputed because the events simply are not hazards or disasters without human involvement.[4] A concrete example of the division between a natural hazard and a natural disaster is that the 1906 San Francisco earthquake was a disaster, whereas earthquakes are a hazard. Various disasters like earthquake, landslides, volcanic eruptions, flood and cyclones are natural hazards that kill thousands of people and destroy billions of Rupees of habitat and property each year. Man-made disaster means threats having an element of human intent, negligence, or error; or involving a failure of a man-made system. Crime, Arson (Arson is the criminal intent of setting a fire with intent to cause damage), Civil disorder, Terrorism, War, Industrial hazards, Structural collapse, Power outage, Radiation contamination, Accidents are the few of the examples of such category of the disaster. Nashik is an important city in Maharashtra, India. Nashik is located in the northwest of Maharashtra, 180 km from Mumbai and 202 km from Pune. Nashik is the administrative headquarters of Nashik district and Nashik Division. Nashik, which has been referred to as the 2 "Wine Capital of India" is located in the Western Ghats, on the western edge of the Deccan peninsula on the banks of the Godavari. Nashik has prospered the most in the past 20 years. Nashik today is one of the fastest growing cities of India and has even been identified as a tier-1 metro. The city's economy is driven chiefly by the engineering and manufacturing industry (which has been around since the seventies) as well as the progressive agriculture in area surrounding the city. Auto majors such as Mahindra & Mahindra, BOSCH and Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs) such as VIP, Samsonite, CEAT etc. have their plants here and have spawned a huge network of auto component suppliers and engineering ancillary services. It is also a pharmaceutical hub with presence GlaxoSmithKline and Fem. Modern efforts are on to promote the growth of an export-oriented rose farming and wine industry in the district. It is home to an important thermal power plant (Eklahare) and a National Treasury Printing Press (India Security Press at Nashik Road). There are five "Industrial Zones" in the Nashik area and its outskirts (Satpur, Ambad, Sinnar, Igatpuri and Dindori). Nashik has a number of sugar mills. It is also chief exporter of white onions and pomegranates.5 Location of the Nashik city. ( Image Source Page: http://www.aacnctooling.com/cnc-machine-tools-heads-inserts-india-contact.htm ) Nashik is one of the great city of northern Maharashtra. It is important for the economical growth of this region. Any natural or manmade disaster can disrupt the economy of this region. This city is playing the major role in providing employment and act as one of the major market center for many agricultural and dairy product as well as manufacturing goods. This is an attempt to identity the future threats of natural or manmade disasters to this city. 3 Disaster probability of Nashik city :- According to district administration, the probability of disaster occurrence and the possible intensity of disasters, based on the earlier history is given in Table No.1.The possible effects (intensity) of each of the above disaster event is given on a scale of High (H ) /Medium (M ) and Low(L). Table No. 1 Disaster probability of Nashik city Damage Earth quake Floods Cyclones Epidemics Loss of Lives L M L L L M H Injuries M L L L L M H Damage to and Destruction of Property M L L L L L H Damage to cattle and livestock L M L L L M L Damage to subsistence and crops L M L L L L L Disruption of life style L L L L L L L Disruption of community life L L L L L L L Loss of Livelihood L L L L L M H Disruption of services L L L L L L L Damage to infrastructure and/or disruption of government systems L L L L L L L Impact on National Economy L L L L L L L Social and Psychological aftereffects L L L L L L L L = Low, M = Medium, H = High Source: mdmu.maharashtra.gov.in/pages/dmp/nashikShow.php Industrial & Chemical Accidents Fires Road Accidents 4 Table no.1 is indicates that the probability of loss of lives, injuries, loss of livelihood and property is high in case of road accidents. Specific vulnerability of systems and services to disaster events is estimate by district administration is given in table no.2. Table No.2 Specific vulnerability of systems and services to disaster events of Nashik city Specific Vulnerability of Vulnerable to Earthquakes Floods Cyclones Epidemics Fires Road Industrial Accidents & Chemical Accidents Transport systems (road network) No Not entirely No No No Partial No Transport systems (rail network) No No No No No No No Power supply Not entirely No No No No No No Water supply No No No No No No No Hospitals No No No Partial No No No Food stocks and supplies No No No No No No No Partial No No No No No No Communication systems (telecommunication) Source:-mdmu.maharashtra.gov.in/pages/dmp/nashikShow.php On the basis of historical disaster events the Ranking and probability of disaster episodes in the city is estimated by the Nashik district disaster management action plan (DDMAP) is shown in table No.3. This table shows that the man made disasters like road accidents and fires are having higher rank than the natural disaster like floods or cyclones. Probability of future occurrence is high in case of road accidents. Earthquake, floods and industrial accidents have medium probability of occurrence. Nashik is situated at the deccon plateau ,which was previously consider as a compact and most stable part in India but after Koyana and then Latur-Killari earthquake this part is also being consider as earthquake prone zone. Satpur and Ambad are major industrial zones having thousands of small and few major industries, so industrial accidents also have more probability of occurrence in Nashik. 5 Table No.3 Ranking and probability of disaster episodes in the Nashik city Event Ranking of events in terms of past occurrence Probability of future occurrence High Medium Low Earthquake III M Floods IV M Cyclones VII L Epidemics V L Industrial and Chemical Accidents VI M Fires II M Road Accidents I H Source: mdmu.maharashtra.gov.in/pages/dmp/nashikShow.php Now a day’s terrarium is one of the threats to many urban settlements in Maharashtra. As we know that Nashik is surrounded by acclaimed government institutions like India Security Press at Nashik Road, Government of India Press is also situated at Gandhinagar. Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd. (H.A.L.) a public sector company manufacturing MIG Aero planes has been established at Ozar near Nashik. There is also an Army Artillery Centre at Devlali where firing, testing and training is conducted. Maharashtra Engineering Research Institute (MERI) is a pride of Nashik. Maharashtra Police Academy (MPA) for training of PSI and Thermal Power Station at Eklahare, are also located at Nashik. This plant generates 910 MW of Electricity. This prosperous picture of the city may attract the attention of the terrorist, so it is also considered as a probable manmade disaster. In short, manmade disasters are having more probability of occurrence in the Nashik city. But one cannot neglect the natural disasters because these are more destructive than manmade disasters. The presence of two major rivers like Godavari and Darana and one small river, Nasardi, always have the matter of concern , mainly in case of continuous and heavy rainfall situations. The objectives of any disaster management plan should be to localize a disaster and to the maximum extent possible contain it so as to minimize the impact on life, the environment and property. A formal plan for managing disasters is therefore necessary. This would include a. Pre-planning a proper sequence of response actions 6 b. c. Allocation of responsibilities to the participating agencies Developing codes and standard operating procedures for various departments and relief agencies involved D. Inventory of existing facilities and resources E. Mechanisms for effective management of resources F. Co-ordination of all relief activities including those of ngos to ensure a coordinated and effective response. G. Co-ordination with the state response machinery for appropriate support. H. Monitoring and evaluation of actions taken during relief and rehabilitation References. 2. G. Bankoff, G. Frerks, D. Hilhorst (eds.) (2003). Mapping Vulnerability: Disasters, Development and People. ISBN ISBN 1-85383-964-7 .(en.wikipedia.org). 3. B. Wisner, P. Blaikie, T. Cannon, and I. Davis (2004). At Risk - Natural hazards, people's vulnerability and disasters. Wiltshire: Routledge. ISBN ISBN 0-415-25216-4. .(en.wikipedia.org). 4. Luis Flores Ballesteros. "What determines a disaster?" 54 Pesos Sep 2008:54 Pesos 11 Sep 2008. .(en.wikipedia.org). 5. D. Alexander (2002). Principles of Emergency planning and Management. Harpended: Terra publishing. ISBN ISBN 1-903544-10-6. .(en.wikipedia.org). 6. en.wikipedia.org 7. mdmu.maharashtra.gov.in/pages/dmp/nashikShow.php