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2019, International Journal of Emerging Markets
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3 pages
1 file
Purpose Market links (and price discovery) between financial assets and lead–lag relationships are topics of interest for financial economists, financial managers and analysts. The lead–lag relationship analysis should consider both short and long-term investors. From a portfolio diversification perspective, the first type of investor is generally more interested in determining the co-movement of financial assets at higher frequencies, which are short-run fluctuations, while the latter concentrates on the relationship at lower frequencies, or long-run fluctuations. The paper aims to discuss these issues. Design/methodology/approach For this study, a technique was employed known as the wavelet approach, which has recently been imported to finance from engineering sciences to study the co-movement dynamics between global sukuk and bond markets. Data cover the period from January 2010 to December 2015. Findings The results indicate that: there is no unidirectional causality from develo...
Cogent Business & Management
In this article, the co-movement between GCC and US stock market returns was investigated using the wavelet coherence method. The Dynamic Conditional Correlation GARCH (DCC-GARCH) modelling is then applied on timevarying components in order to provide a point of comparison with the results extracted from wavelet analysis. The investigation was conducted on the weekly stock index prices of two USA stock markets, namely Dow Jones and S&P 500 and six GCC stock markets, namely the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Oman, Kuwait, and Bahrain. The data were retrieved from Thomson Reuters's data stream and the sample duration was from 7 January 2007 to 24 June 2018. As a result, a definite co-movement between several GCC stock markets and those of the US stock markets for a long term was found. Moreover, the results also displayed signs of the significant disparity between the co-movements of the stock markets throughout the scales of time during economic decline. This phenomenon was possibly expected during the economic decline, where a significant divergence occurred as opposed to co-movement. The implications of the findings for global investors were considerable due to the indication from long-term co-movement that these investors would not be capable of gaining simultaneous profit from time and portfolio being diversified. In fact, the results showed the major difference in the opportunities for international portfolio diversification throughout these markets in terms of scale and time.
Computational Economics, 2017
In this study, we investigate the connectedness between sharia stock index and three Islamic bond yields within a global perspective of the Gulf Cooperation Council Islamic financial markets. The main novelty of the present study is that we extend previous studies by performing three wavelet variants in bivariate and multivariate frameworks, namely the wavelet multiple correlation, the wavelet multiple cross correlation and wavelet cohesion. The findings point out a significant changing pattern in the dynamic linkage between sharia stocks and Islamic bond yields in the time-frequency domain. A strong positive association is evidenced in the short horizons and a negative linkage is branded for longer timescales. Some resemblances are found for the wavelet cohesion corroborating the existence of potential portfolios' diversification opportunities at lower frequencies. The multivariate wavelet cross correlation unveils that the intensity of the co-movement reaches its zenith at high frequencies. These results are not similar to the bivariate wavelet coherence but are coincident with the wavelet cohesion approach, which may be due to the difference B Rania Jammazi
Applied Economics Letters, 2018
In this article, we revisit the issue of contagion, interdependence and changes in correlation structure after the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) of 2008 between developed and emerging markets in a time-frequency domain using a wavelet-based approach for the period spanning over 1 January 1999 to 8 November 2016. We report evidences of: (a) weaker contagion for Latin American emerging markets during GFC, (b) a strong contagion effect for emerging markets in Europe and the Middle East and (c) a fall in long-run co-movements after GFC, which means by investing in emerging markets, the diversification benefits can be derived in the long run. We report evidence of coexistence of contagion and permanent change in correlation structure.
Borsa Istanbul Review, 2018
Some investors strive for capital appreciation while others may follow capital preservation strategies in terms of investment. In relation to that, Islamic finance receives a lot of attention from institutional investors and asset managers in the search for higher returns, lower correlation and growth potentiality. Therefore, it would be meaningful to investigate whether sukuk can offer any advantage in terms of global diversification. In such context, we have examined the volatilities and correlations of bond indices of emerging counties such as South Korea, Singapore, China, India, Indonesia, and Malaysia with Thomson Reuters BPA Malaysia Sukuk Index by applying wavelet coherence and Multivariate GARCH analyses. The data covers the period January 2010 to December 2015. We conclude that the sukuk market offers effective portfolio diversification opportunities for fixed income investors of the mentioned sample countries. Global and regional investors can avail the benefits of portfolio diversification through investment in sukuk markets but portfolio diversification is not feasible domestically. As a practical implication to the finance industry, the outcome of this research provides a framework for investigating sukuk market integration of several emerging bond markets which serve as an important platform for conducting further research.
Economic Modelling, 2014
This paper examines the short term and long term dependencies between stock market returns for the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Countries (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates) during the period 2005-2010. Our empirical investigation is based on the wavelet squared coherence which allows us to assess the co-movement in both time-frequency spaces. Our results reveal frequent changes in the pattern of the co-movements especially after 2007 for all the selected GCC markets at relatively higher frequencies. We further note an increasing strength of dependence among the GCC stock markets during the last financial crisis signifying enhanced portfolio benefits for investors in the short term relative to the long term. On the financial side, we uncover that the strength of co-movement between GCC markets may impact the multi-country portfolio's value at risk (VaR) levels. These findings provide potential implications for portfolio managers operating in the GCC region who are invited to consider co-movement through both frequencies and time when designing their portfolios.
Cogent Business & Management
By means of the Continuous Morlet Wavelet Transform fostering covariance/correlation, lead-lag causal relationship as well as coherency via the wavelets analysis, we explore the two indices on the Ghana Stock Exchange, the larger Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index (GSE-CI) and the smaller Ghana Stock Exchange Financial Services Index (GSE-FSI) with the US dollar and Euro. Using daily data from January 2011 to December 2016 we confirm that there is mixed interplay of leadlag relationships, mostly strong at lower frequencies, among the indices and the two most important exchange rates in Ghana. This paper serves as the first of its kind in the literature owing to its rich methodology and variables employed. Our study implies that investing selectively in either GSE-CI or GSE-FSI is very important and differences in co-movement of GSE-CI and GSE-FSI with the exchange rates. We reveal that there is narrowly identifiable lead-lag relationship between GSE-CI and USD/GHS and GSE-FSI and USD/GHS. Investors as revenue maximisation agents should consider the time and frequency spaces of the GSE-CI and GSE-FSI in their investment decisions involving diversification with the USD and EUR both in the short-and medium-terms (up to four years). Further, any policy meant to influence Peterson Owusu Junior ABOUT THE AUTHOR Our main areas of research coalesce into financial econometrics. Coming from similar backgrounds of finance and financial engineering we delight in research encompassing these related fields. Some of our previous topics are in financial distributions, volatility models, interest convergence, long memory of interest rates, integration of African stock markets, generalised lambda distributions, etc. This study is in line with the broad studies on co-movement of across different asset classes. Petersons Owusu Junior has MSc. Financial Engineering from Malardalen University in Sweden. He currently facilitates the Financial Engineering & Risk Management course at the
Review of Financial Economics, 2017
Sukuk is a highly appealing alternative instrument of conventional bond in the financial market over the last two decades. To a certain extent, the market players assume sukuk as the same as bond. However, sukuk has its own fundamental asset backed principles, whereas bond is backed by debt. The objective of the study is to examine the Granger‐causality and lead–lag relationship between sukuk and bond by using the data of the Malaysian Government securities return for both conventional and Islamic instruments. The data for every working day of 7 years covering the period from January 31, 2007 to December 31, 2013 were collected from Bloomberg database. The yield returns of both securities have been plotted for each six months of a year. This study applied both Granger‐causality and dynamic co‐movement techniques such as, continuous wavelet transforms (CWT) coherence for analyzing the temporal evolution of the frequency content of both securities by decomposing each period into diffe...
Câu 1: Mối quan hệ biện chứng giữa vật chất và ý thức, ý nghĩa và phương pháp luận.
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