Beyond the Limits: Global Collapse or a Sustainable Future

814 zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA BOOK REVIEWS Le a rning to lo ve zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGF Lim its zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONM Sa m zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA Cole Beyond the limits: Global Collapse or a Sustainable Future Do ne lla H. Me a d o w s, De nis L. Me a d o w s a nd Jo rg e n Ra nd e rs 300 p a g e s, Lo nd o n, Ea rthsc a n in a sso c ia tio n w ith the Wo rld Wid e Fund fo r Na ture , 1992, Pb f9.95 It is w ith a se nse o f d @ jA VU tha t I re vie w this b o o k, Beyond the Limits: Global Collapse or a Sustainable Future, w hic h is w ritte n b y the sa m e a utho rs a s the fa m o us C lub o f Ro m e ’ s The Limits to Growth, p ub lishe d in 1972. As m a ny re a d e rs o f Futures w ill re c a ll, the e a rlie r stud y e m p lo ye d a g lo b a l c o m p ute r to p re d ic t tha t ‘ if g ro w th tre nd s c o ntinue d unc ha ng e d , the lim its o f p hysic a l g ro w th o n the p la ne t w o uld b e re a c he d w ithin a 100 ye a rs’ . To a vo id suc h c a ta stro p he , the a utho rs a d vise d , w o uld ne c e ssita te te c hno lo g y p o lic ie s to re c yc le re so urc e s, c o ntro l p o llutio n, e xte nd the life tim e o f c a p ita l, a nd re sto re infe rtile a nd e ro d e d so il, a s w e ll a s re stric tio ns on p o p ula tio n g ro wth, a nd a le ve lling o ff o f w o rld a ve ra g e p e r c a p ita living sta nd a rd s a t a b o ut tw ic e the 1975 le ve ls. If suc h p o lic ie s w e re no t im p le m e nte d b y the ye a r 2000, the n e ve n the e q uilib rium sta te w o uld no t b e a c hie va b le . Limits so ld 9 m illio n c o p ie s in 29 la ng ua g e s. The im p a c t o f the b o o k re ste d la rg e ly o n the fa c t tha t the re sults c a m e fro m a c o m p ute r m o d e l (c a lle d ‘ Wo rld 3’ 1, w hic h a t tha t tim e w e re still re la tive ly no ve l. Ind e e d , I wa s p e rso na lly so im p re sse d b y the stud y tha t, a s a na ive e x-the o re tic a l p hysic ist, I sw itc he d m y c ho se n c a re e r fro m urb a n p la nning to Sa m C o le is a C o nsulting Ed ito r to Futures a nd Pro fe sso r a t the Sta te Unive rsity o f Ne w Yo rk’ s C e nte r fo r Re g io na l Stud ie s, Sc ho o l o f Arc hite c ture a nd De sig n, Ha ye s Ha ll, 3435 Ma in Stre e t, Buffa lo , NY 14214, USA (Te l: + 1 716 829 3523; fa x: + 1 716 837 3924). future s stud ie s a fte r re a d ing a fro nt-p a g e sp re a d in The Guardian ne w sp a p e r w hic h sho we d the fa te ful c o m p ute r p rint-o ut fro m The Limits to Growth mo d e l. Pla nning c itie s se e m e d so m e w ha t irre le va nt if the w o rld wa s so o n to c o m e to a n e nd . I wa s no t a lo ne in m y susc e p tib ility. Limits a p p e a re d to c o nfirm m a ny p e o p le ’ s Ma lthusia n p re d isp o sitio ns a b o ut the d e g ra d e d sta te o f the e nviro nm e nt a nd g lo b a l o ve rp o p ula tio n, a nd re c e ive d c o nsid e ra b le a tte ntio n fro m sc ie ntists, la yp e o p le a nd g o ve rnm e nts. Alo ng w ith He rm a n Ka hn’ s The Year 2000, Limits ra te s a s the m o st influe ntia l future s stud y. p ro b a b ly p o st-w a r The c o ve r no te s o f the ne w b o o k, Beyond the Limits, o b se rve tha t ‘ Ma ny re fuse d to a c c e p t [The Limits to Growth1 c o nc lusio ns. Ye t g lo b a l sc ie ntific e vid e nc e sinc e ha s c o nfirm e d the m . No w, thre e o f the fo ur o rig ina l a utho rs sho w tha t the w o rld ha s already o ve rsho t so m e o f its lim its a nd , if present trends continue, we fa c e the virtua lly c e rta in p ro sp e c t o f a g lo b a l c o lla p se , p e rha p s w ithin the life tim e s o f c hild re n a live to d a y’ . Still stro ng stuff. As the a utho rs p o int o ut in Beyond the Limits, the [Limits to Growth1 b o o k wa s inte rp re te d a s a p re d ic tio n o f d o o m, b ut it wa s no t a p re d ic tio n a t a ll. It wa s no t a b o ut a p re o rd a ine d future . It wa s a b o ut c ho ic e ’ . We m a y b e in fo r a re -run o f this sa m e m isund e rsta nd ing w ith the ir ne w wo rk. At Susse x Unive rsity in 1972 we ha d the o p p o rtunity to re vie w The Limits to Growth stud y in c o nsid e ra b le d e ta il-running the c o m p ute r p ro g ra m a nd c he c king in d e ta il the va rio us d a ta a nd re sults. O ur a p p ra isa l wa s tha t the Limits m o d e l d id no t ta ke a d e q ua te a c c o unt o f hum a n a d a p ta b ility, p a rtic ula rly w ith re g a rd to institutio na l a nd te c hno lo g ic a l c ha ng e , FUTURES September 1993 Bo o k re vie ws b ut tha t the future furthe r wa s ve ry unc e rta in inve stig a tio n w e re a lso c o nc e rne d wa s ne e d e d . a nd flo ra We a b o ut tha t the id e a o f o ve r- w he lm ing g lo b a l c o nstra ints w o uld le a d to a d e nia l o f future fo r d e ve lo p ing c o untrie s. Altho ug h trie d to we p e rha p s to o d ising e nuo usly p re se nt o ur a p p ra isa l in the ‘ b a la nc e d British wa y’ , the Susse x c ritiq ue wa s se e n a s a stro ng c o nd e m na tio n o f the Limits stud y, a nd so le d to a p o la rize d c o nfro nta tio n b e tw e e n the Susse x a nd Limits g ro up s. The c o ntro ve rsy wa s inte nse a nd a t so m e c o nfe re nc e s c a m e c lo se r to p hysic a l c o nfro nta tio n tha n inte lle c tua l d e b a te b e tw e e n sup p o rte rs o f the Limits p o sitio n a nd its c ritic s. With c o m p la ints o f Fa ustia n b a rg a ins a nd Ho b so n’ s c ho ic e s, the d e b a te itse lf a ttra c te d a tte ntio n a s a n illustra tio n o f the so c io lo g y o f sc ie nc e , m o st re c e ntly in Pe te r Mo ll’ s b o o k o n the C lub o f Ro m e (From Scarcity to Sustainability: Futures Studies and the Environment). I p e rso na lly b e lie ve the Limits stud y wa s use d b y Pe c c e i a nd the C lub o f Ro m e to a d ve rtise the ir p o sitio n. As Pe c c e i him se lf ha d o b se rve d ‘ wha t we w e re lo o king fo r wa s a ve hic le to m o ve the he a rts a nd m ind s o f me n’ . I b e lie ve a lso tha t the y w e re sinc e re a b o ut the issue s w ith w hic h the y w e re d e a ling , a nd ha ving re a lize d tha t a c o m p ute r syste ms m o d e l w o uld se rve a s this ve hic le , c o nsid e re d tha t the m e a ns justifie d the e nd s. In tha t p re -p o stm o d e rnist a g e , this wa s up se tting to sc ie ntists suc h a s myse lf. All the a utho rs o f Limits w e re e q ua lly sinc e re , b o th in the ir b e lie f in the syste ms d yna m ic s m e tho d o lo g y the y use d a nd the ir c o nc e rns w ith the issue s d e sc rib e d in Limits, to w hic h the y ha ve d e vo te d the ir sub se q ue nt c a re e rs. In a d d itio n, the Limits b o o k p ro vo ke d ne w g lo b a l m o d e lling e ffo rts, a nd g a ve ne w stim ulus to o ng o ing e xe rc ise s suc h a s tho se in the Unite d Na tio ns. As a n a utho r o f the Susse x c ritiq ue , I to o ha ve m a d e so m e thing o f a c a re e r o f g lo b a l mo d e ls, ha ving w ritte n so m e five b o o ks o n the sub je c t. Eve ry tim e this ha p p e ns, I a m c o nfro nte d w ith the sa m e g uilty q ue stio n o f ‘ we re we w ro ng in o ur c ritiq ue ? ‘ . At se ve ra l p o ints in the p a st 20 ye a rs the re ha s b e e n a g o o d d e a l o f e vid e nc e to sug g e st tha t we we re . Jo rg e n Ra nd e rs ha d e ve n g ive n m e a c o p y o f Limits, insc rib ing it w ith, ‘ In 1984, we sha ll kno w who is rig ht!‘ . The c o ntinuing d e va sta ting lo ss o f FUTURES September 1993 a nd te c hnic a l the ting fa una , g lo b a l c ha ng e , a nd im p re ssio n wo rse . the g ro w ing w a rm ing , e rra tic so the zyxwvutsrqponm c o nc e rns ra te s o n, o fte n tha t m a tte rs C e rta inly, 815 of g ive m a y b e g e t- c o ve r b lurb of Beyond the Limits (no te d a b o ve ), w hic h p re sum a b ly is a n im a g e o f the re a lity tha t the a utho rs w ish to c o nve y is, if a nything , stro ng e r tha n the o rig ina l b o o k. The m a in sto ry-line o f Beyond the Limits is e sse ntia lly the sa m e a s The Limits to Growtka p ro g no stic a tio n of doom fo llo we d b y a m e ssa g e o f ho p e . He re the a utho rs sa y tha t ‘ With so m e tre p id a tio n we turne d to Wo rld 3, the c o m p ute r m o d e l tha t ha d he lp e d us twe nty ye a rs b e fo re to inte g ra te the g lo b a l d a ta a nd to w o rk thro ug h the ir lo ng te rm im p lic a tio ns. We w e re a fra id tha t we w o uld no lo ng e r b e a b le to find in the m o d e l a ny p o ssib ility o f a b e lie va b le , suffic ie nt future fo r a ll the wo rld ’ s p e o p le ’ . But a s it turne d o ut, the y c o uld . ‘ Wo rld 3 sho we d us tha t in twe nty ye a rs so m e o p tio ns fo r susta ina b ility ha ve na rro w e d w hile o the rs ha ve o p e ne d up . G ive n the te c hno lo g ie s a nd institutio ns inve nte d o ve r tho se twe nty ye a rs, the re a re re a l p o ssib ilitie s fo r re d uc ing the stre a m s o f re so urc e s c o nsum e d a nd p o lluta nts g e ne ra te d b y the hum a n e c o no m y w hile inc re a sing the q ua lity o f hum a n life ’ . The y sho uld no t ha ve b e e n so c o y. Afte r a ll, in Limits the y no te d tha t ‘ the b e ha vio r m o d e s we ha ve a lre a d y o b se rve d in this m o d e l a p p e a r to b e so fund a m e nta l a nd g e ne ra l tha t we d o no t e xp e c t o ur b ro a d c o nc lusio ns to b e sub sta ntia lly a lte re d b y furthe r re visio ns’ . To a c hie ve susta ina b ility, the y a d vo c a te a ‘ visio ning ’ , ‘ ne tw o rking ’ , ‘ truth-te lling ’ , ‘ le a rning ’ a nd ‘ lo ving ’ . This is in a d d itio n to the p a c ka g e o f no n-p o lluting te c hno lo g y, p o p ula tio n c o ntro l a nd c urta ile d living sta nd a rd s, p ut fo rw a rd in The Limits to Growth. My p ro b le m , a fte r 20 ye a rs, a g a in is tha t I c a n fully a g re e w ith so m e p a rts o f the ir c o nc lusio n, b ut no t w ith o the rs. Fo r e xa m p le , to sa y tha t ‘ The future , to b e via b le a t a ll, m ust b e o ne o f d ra w ing b a c k, e a sing d o wn, he a ling . Po ve rty c a nno t b e a d d re sse d b y ind e finite m a te ria l g ro w th’ se e m s a p p ro p ria te ; b ut the c o ntinua tio n o f this sta te m e nt, ‘ it w ill ha ve to b e a d d re sse d w hile the m a te ria l hum a n e c o no m y c o ntra c ts’ , a g a in se e m s e m ine ntly d e b a ta b le . O b vio usly, this is no t the p la c e to p ursue this in a ny d e ta il, b ut 816 Book reviews zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA to m e the m a ny a rtic le s in Futures a nd o the r jo urna ls w hic h d e a l w ith the to p ic o f susta ina b le e c o no m ic d e ve lo p m e nt, g ro w th a nd e nviro nm e nt, sug g e st tha t the c risis m a y b e le ss intra c ta b le tha n the a utho rs o f Limits fo re se e , a nd sure ly the re a re le ss tra um a tic wa ys to ta c kle the p ro b le ms. Eve n the illustra tio ns the a utho rs g ive o f c ha ng e s in the p a st 20 ye a rs, suc h a s the g lo b a l re sp o nse to p re ve nt furthe r d a m a g e to the o zo ne la ye r, le nd sup p o rt to this p o ssib ility. Ho we ve r, I c e rta inly d o no t think tha t the issue e xte nt tha t the a utho rs is se wn up . To the a g a in ha ve se ize d o n a use ful ve hic le to c o nve y the ir m e ssa g e , the ir ne w b o o k is a te na b le future s e xe rc ise -it d isp la ys so m e im p o rta nt a lte rna tive s fo r the future , id e ntifie s ha za rd s a nd o p p o rtunitie s-b ut c an ne ve rthe le ss b e c ritiq ue d fro m a num b e r o f d ire c tio ns. m a in a llure tim e in the p a st 20 ye a rs? O r a re we c o nsta ntly living o n a knife -e d g e , just ke e p ing the e nd a t b a y, e ve n b e ing p e rfe c tly ra tio na l in fine -tuning the d ista nc e we ke e p a he a d o f d isa ste r, o r d o the re sults sho w a b ility to a d a p t is ina d e q ua te , tha t o ur a nd we ha ve le ft it a ll to o la te ? If we c o uld ta ke the num b e rs a t fa c e va lue , so m e inte re sting a nswe rs to the se q ue stio ns m ig ht fo llo w. Fo r this re a so n, I w o uld like to kno w w he the r the d iffe re nc e s b e tw e e n the o rig ina l a nd ne w re sults a re sig nific a nt, or w he the r we sho uld b e lie ve the ne w re sults a ny m o re tha n the o ld ? My tra ining a s a sc ie ntist le a d s m e to a sk, a s w ith the o rig ina l Limits, ‘ if we p ut into the mo d e l a ra ng e o f d a ta a nd re la tio nship s tha t re fle c t o ur unc e rta inty a b o ut the sta te o f the p la ne t a nd the wa y it wo rks, d o we se e ro b ust re sults? ‘ . In the ir ne w b o o k, the a utho rs try to fo re sta ll this q ue stio n b y p re se nting a fa irly w id e ra ng e o f sc e na rio s, b ut a g a in, a s w ith the e a rlie r wo rk, ‘ te c hno lo g ic a l o p ti- How different? The we ha ve lo st 40 ye a rs o f surviva l o f the o rig ina l Limits e xe r- c ise wa s tha t it wa s q ua ntifie d a nd c o m p ute rize d . Ho w d iffe re nt is the ir ne w m o d e l? In Beyond the Limits, the a utho rs no te tha t, a p a rt fro m e ig ht c ha ng e s, ‘ the num e ric a l va lue s o f a ll c o e ffic ie nts a nd the p re c ise na ture o f a ll re la tio nship s’ a re a s in the o rig ina l mo d e l. (He nc e , p re sum a b ly, the re a so n fo r no t c a lling the ne w ve rsio n ‘ Wo rld Q .1 Eve n so , the re a re so m e im p o rta nt a nd so m e tim e s o ffse tting m o d ific a tio ns: the a g ric ultura l life o f la nd is re d uc e d fro m 6000 to 1000 ye a rs, b ut a g ric ultura l yie ld s fro m inc re a se d inp uts to a g ric ulture a re inc re a se d . The ra w m a te ria l inp uts to ind ustria l p ro d uc tio n a re re d uc e d a nd te c hno lo g y is a ssum e d to b e ‘ a d a p tive ’ , so a s the le ve l o f p o llutio n rise s, fo r e xa m p le , ‘ m o d e st a m o unts o f c a p ita l a re d ive rte d fro m p ro d uc ing ind ustria l o utp ut to a c q uiring a nd m a inta ining the ne w (le ss p o lluting ) te c hno lo g y’ . This is a sig nific a nt c ha ng e sinc e , a s no te d a b o ve , the e sse nc e o f the Susse x c ritiq ue o f The Limits to Growth wa s tha t ‘ te c hno lo g y’ wa s d e a lt w ith in a no n-a d a p tive wa y. The c rux o f the Ma lthusia n d e b a te still is ‘ ho w a d a p tive is te c hno lo g y? ‘ . Ho w d iffe re nt a re the ne w re sults? In the o rig ina l stud y the turno ve r o f p o p ula tio n (the b e g inning o f the c o lla p se ) wa s the Ye a r 2050. With the ne w mo d e l, the turno ve r is a ro und 2030. Do e s this m e a n tha t m ists’ w o uld ha ve little d iffic ulty in p la usib ly fine ssing a m o re g ro w th-rid d e n future . The e q uilib rium (o r susta ina b le future ) a d vo c a te d b y the a utho rs is m o re o r le ss the sa m e a s in the o rig ina l Limits. A sta b ilize d w o rld p o p ula tio n b illio n, a nd te c hno lo g ie s o f a ro und 7.7 to intro d uc e e m issio ns, e ro sio n a nd re so urc e use , le a d s p e r c a p ita ind ustria l o utp ut to le ve l o ff a t a b o ut $350 the a utho rs d o lla rs (a t 1975 p ric e s). This, sa y, w o uld p ro vid e e ve ryo ne w ith e no ug h fo o d , c o nsum e r g o o d s, a nd se rvic e s fo r ‘ m a te ria l c o mfo rt’ . The y ind ic a te tha t this le ve l is the e q uiva le nt o f So uth Ko re a , o r tw ic e tha t o f Bra zil in 1990, b ut w a rn tha t c o m p a riso ns sho uld no t b e ta ke n to o lite ra lly, b e c a use o nc e g ro w th ha s sta b ilize d (a nd a fe w o the r c o m p lic a tio ns ha ve b e e n so rte d o ut), le ss inc o m e w o uld b e e xp e nd e d o n inve stm e nt fo r g ro w th o r p o llutio n c o ntro ls, we a p o ns a nd c o rrup tio n. Eve n a llo w ing fo r re inte rp re ta tio ns o f the d a ta , a c c o rd ing to na tio na l p e r c a p ita inc o m e d a ta in the 1992 World Bank Development Report, this a ve ra g e le ve l se e m s to im p ly a n a ve ra g e inc re a se in living sta nd a rd s o f a b o ut 10 tim e s fo r the p o o re st c o untrie s in the wo rld , a nd a d e c re a se o f a b o ut 10 tim e s fo r the ric he st (a nd this is w itho ut b e g inning to sp e a k o f d isp a ritie s b e tw e e n the p o o re st o f the p o o r a nd the ric he st o f the ric h w ithin the se c o untrie s). FUTURES September 1993 Book zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfe re vie ws 817 zyxwvutsrqponm With suc h c o nc lusio ns, the a utho rs ha ve to fa c e the q ue stio n o f the p o litic a l fe a sib ility o f the ir re c o m m e nd a tio ns. In fo rc e s stud e nts to b e g in w ith a m o re o p e n m ind a b o ut the ir a ssum p tio ns. The re sults the ir c o nc lusio n, the a utho rs sa y, ‘ It is d iffic ult to sp e a k o f o r to p ra c tic e lo ve , frie nd ship , g e ne ro sity, und e rsta nd ing , o r so lid a rity w ithin a syste m who se rule s, g o a ls a nd info rm a tio n stre a m s a re g e a re d fo r le sse r hum a n q ua litie s’ . Eve n if this vie w o f g lo b a l so c ia l m o tiva tio ns wa s true , the a utho rs ha ve hit the sa m e d ile m m a a s 20 ye a rs a g o : in o rd e r to a ttra c t a tte ntio n the y m a y ha ve e xa g g e ra te d the ir c a se to the p o int tha t the ir so lutio n se e m s una c c e p ta b le d e vise a nd / o r im p o ssib le . If the ir g lo b a l a ve ra g e fig ure s a re to b e b e lie ve d , institutio na lly the p ro b le m the y p re se nt m a y b e to o w e re intrig uing . While e q ua tio ns the stud e nts to re p re se nt c o uld the five ke y sub syste ms o f Lim it-p e rsiste nt p o llutio n, no n-re ne w a b le re so urc e s, p o p ula tio n, a g ric ulture a nd fo o d p ro d uc tio n, a nd ind ustry a nd se rvic e s-the o fte n ve ry se nsitive Ind e e d , sta rting fro m w o rk ha rd to re sults w e re to the p a ra m e te rs. sc ra tc h, o ne ha s to p ro d uc e ro b ust Lim its-like Ma lthusia n re sults. This o b vio usly re -ra ise s the q ue stio n w hic h wa s a t the he a rt o f the o rig ina l Limits d e b a te -if m o d e l re sults c ha ng e m a rke d ly a c ro ss the unc e rta inty in the p a ra m e te rs, ho w use ful a re the y? Do the y m e re ly te ll us tha t it is he llish d iffic ult im m e nse . It w o uld b e d iffic ult e no ug h fo r to b uild a ro b ust d yna m ic sim ula tio n the p o p ula tio ns o f the ind ustria l c o untrie s m o d e l (in w hic h c a se Me a d o w s et al to c o nte m p la te stra ig ht o ut a ze ro future sho uld b e c o ng ra tula te d fo r the ir suc c e ss), inc re a se in the ir sta nd a rd s o f living (e ve n if o r d o e s it m e a n tha t the re a d e rs sho uld tha t c o uld w e ll b e ha p p e ning It b ut to ha ve a g a in b e sc e p tic a l o f the re sults, a nd tha t the m lo ving ly a c c e p t a te nfo ld d e c re a se is m uc h m o re re se a rc h (inc lud ing c o m p ute r to o a m b itio us. Thus, the a utho rs a g a in m o d e lling ) is ne e d e d to find o ut w he re we m a y b e in d a ng e r o f und e rm ining the ir sta nd in re la tio n to life , the unive rse a nd o wn c o nstitue nc y. zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA e ve rything ? O ne wa y to vie w the Limits stud y Wha t va lue ? Ap a rt fro m futurists, who sho uld b uy the b o o k? In a n a p p e nd ix, the a utho rs d isc uss Wo rld 3 a s a n instrum e nt o f te a c hing a nd re se a rc h. I ha ve use d the b o o k a s a c la ss te xt fo r m a ste r’ s le ve l p la nning stud e nts, a nd the y ha ve e njo ye d it. The y c a n re la te to the ne e d fo r b a la nc e d a nd susta ina b le m ig ht b e a s a n e ffo rt to intro d uc e a m o d e o f a na lysis p a rt-w a y b e tw e e n sc ie nc e a nd sto ry te lling , a s a n e ffo rt to b rid g e the ub iq uito us g a p b e tw e e n the ‘ ha rd ’ a nd the ‘ so ft’ sc ie nc e s, o r a t le a st a s a n e ffo rt to hum a nize c o m p ute r m o d e lling . Me tho d o - lo g ic a lly, m a ny futurists a re strug g ling w ith the q ue stio n o f ho w to b ring to g e the r the q ua ntifia b le a nd no n-q ua ntifia b le a sp e c ts o f the ir a rt. I p e rso na lly vie w this a s a future s, the frie nd ly a p p ro a c h to m o d e llc o rne rsto ne e xe rc ise , tho ug h o ne w hic h ing , a nd e ve n to lo ve . I would zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA use the b o o k c a n b e m isund e rsto o d , a s w e ll a s m isle a d a g a in, e ve n tho ug h the stud e nts w ill ing . In this re sp e c t, The Limits to Growth a lwa ys e nd up vie w ing m e a s a n e xiste nstud y wa s a c o ura g e o us e xe rc ise , a nd tia list te c hno c ra t. Mo re o ve r, w he re a s 20 m o st future s re se a rc he rs w o rking in la rg e ye a rs a g o , running the Limits m o d e l to o k unive rsitie s o r e sta b lishe d d isc ip line s c a n the m o st p o w e rful no n-m ilita ry c o m p ute r in the UK (a t the Ato m ic Ene rg y Re se a rc h Esta b lishm e nt in Ha rwe ll), this tim e a ro und the m o d e l p ro g ra m is d istrib ute d ra the r ine xp e nsive ly, a nd d yna m ic sim ula tio n so ftwa re fo r Ma ts a nd PC s is a va ila b le (se e p a g e 252 o f Beyond the Limits). The STELLA so ftwa re fo r the Ma ts is ve ry g o o d a nd q uite c he a p . Sinc e we d o no t ha ve a Ma c La b a nd c a nno t a ffo rd the o utra g e o usly e xp e nsive DYNAMO fo r o ur PC s, the stud e nts w e re o b lig e d to d o the ne xt b e st thing w hic h wa s to sim ula te fhe Limits to Growth e xe rc ise using a sp re a d she e t. This is a use ful e xe rc ise , b e c a use it FUTURES September 1993 re la te to the p a in o f the Limit9 a utho rs w he n the y sa y, ‘ We w e nt thro ug h tha t e ntire e m o tio na l se q ue nc e -g rie f, lo ne line ss, re luc ta nt re sp o nsib ility-w he n we w o rke d on the C lub of Ro m e p ro je c t twe nty ye a rs a g o ’ . Ne ve rthe le ss, the a utho rs c o ntrib ute to the se m isund e rsta nd ing s sinc e re a d e rs a re le ft unc e rta in a s to ho w fa r the y a re e xp e c te d to b e lie ve the ta ng ib ie (a nd so m e tim e s inta ng ib le ) num b e rs p ro d uc e d b y the mo d e l. O n the o ne ha nd , the y q uo te Etie nne va n d e Wa lle ’ s c o m p lim e nta ry a p p ra isa l o f the ir mo d e l, ‘ Whe n a m o d e l ha s re a c he d the fo rm a l p e rfe c tio n 818 Book reviews zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA o f Wo rld 3, a nd w he n so m uc h e ffo rt a nd ta le nt ha ve g o ne into p re se nting its m e tho d o lo g y in inte llig ib le d e ta il, its c o nc lusio ns c a nno t b e d ism isse d w itho ut re so rting to sim ila r m e tho d s a nd ra ising ne w q ue stio ns to b e a nsw e re d b y ne w mo d e ls’ . O n the o the r ha nd , sc a le s a re o m itte d fro m m o st o f the ir g ra p hs, so it is no t c le a r just ho w m inute ly we sho uld e xa m ine the re sults. Ind e e d , the a utho rs sa y tha t ‘ to e va lua te o ur c o nc lusio ns the g re a t m a jo rity o f re a d e rs w ill o nly ne e d a n intuitive und e rsta nd ing o f d yna m ic s b a se d o n “ re a l wo rld ” e xp e rie nc e w ith e xp o ne ntia l c ha ng e , lim its, d e la ys a nd e rro rs in p e rc e p tio n a nd re sp o nse .. C o nse q ue ntly, m o st p e o p le who re a d o ur re p o rt w ill b e a b le to jud g e ho w m uc h c re d e nc e the y p la c e o n o ur re sults w itho ut re so rting to the C o m p ute r’ . Altho ug h the a c ro nym G IG 0 (g a rb a g e -in, g a rb a g e -o ut) wa s no t c o ine d fo r The Limits to Growth, it ha s o fte n b e e n a p p lie d to g lo b a l mo d e ls. In the ir re c e nt futures’ a rtic le ‘ The g o o d , the true a nd the p o st-m o d e rn’ , Funto w ic z a nd Ra ve tz re p la y this m e ta p ho r, a nd p o rtra y c o m p ute r sim ula tio n a s a ne w so rt o f p se ud o sc ie nc e m a sq ue ra d ing b e tte r tha n p ure m a g ic b e c a use it e m e rg e s fro m a c o m p ute r. Se ve ra l a utho rs ha ve use d the ‘ w itc h-d o c to r’ im a g e o f c o m p ute r mo d e ls. In e va lua ting stud ie s suc h a s Limb, it is ne c e ssa ry, ho we ve r, tha t we re c o g nize w ha t is sub sta ntive , a nd w ha t is no t, a nd w ha t is d e sig ne d m e re ly to m a nip ula te . It ha s a lwa ys b e e n p o ssib le to m a nufa c ture num b e rs, e ve n w itho ut the use of c o m p ute rs a nd fa nc y g ra p hic s. Te n ye a rs a g o , fo r e xa m p le , Pre sid e nt Re a g a n thre w a wa y the g lo o m y p ro je c tio ns o f a ho st o f e c o no m e tric m o d e ls in fa vo ur o f the m o re a p p e a ling ‘ ro sy sc e na rio ’ . (The m o d e ls turne d o ut to b e ne a rly c o rre c t.) So m e p e o p le c ho se to use the ro sy ‘ fo re c a st’ , b ut it is hig hly d o ub tful w he the r the y b e lie ve d it. Ra the r, it he lp e d the m to ta ke a d va nta g e o f the c re d ulity o f o the rs. But a s tim e p a sse s a ll o f us le a rn to b e c o m e m o re so p histic a te d in o ur inte rp re ta tio ns. Whe n p ho to g ra p hy wa s first intro d uc e d o ve r a c e ntury a g o , fo r e xa m p le , c o m m e nta to rs a p p la ud e d tha t fina lly we ha d a n e xa c t p o rtra ya l o f re a lity. To d a y m o st p e o p le kno w ho w the p ho to g ra p hic im a g e d isto rts, a nd we ha ve le a rne d to c o m p e nsa te , a nd re inte rp re t w ha t we se e . As a so c ie ty we q ue stio n a nd c ritiq ue -w e do no t ha ve to a c c e p t p ro ffe re d re a lity o r G IG 0 a t fa c e va lue . C o nve rse ly, we sho uld no t re je c t c o m p ute r-b a se d re sults sim p ly b e c a use the y a re no t a s p re c ise a s we w o uld like the m to b e . The c o ntra st in the re a c tio ns to the o rig ina l The Limits to Growth a nd the ne w Re yo nd the Limits illustra te s the p o la riza tio n tha t still e xists o n this p o int. In its tim e , the o rig ina l Limits e xe rc ise wa s m ind -b lo w ing a nd c a p ture d the a tte ntio n o f a w id e a ud ie nc e . O ve r the ye a rs, the c ritiq ue s o f the o rig ina l Limits ha ve ta ke n the ir to ll, a nd the thing tha t I p e rso na lly m o st re g re t is tha t w hile m o st p ro b le m s ra ise d b y Limits c ry o ut fo r a fo rw a rd lo o king , c ro ss-e ve rything a p p ro a c h, we a re still fa r fro m ha ving a c hie ve d it. In c o ntra st to the o rig ina l, the ne w ve rsio n a p p e a rs a s so m e w ha t p a sse , e ve n if it sho uld no t b e . The no ve lty o f the c o m p ute r ha s g o ne a nd so ha s the invo lve m e nt o f the C lub o f Ro m e . O b vio usly the p ub lic a tio n d a te wa s a rra ng e d to c o inc id e w ith the Rio C o nfe re nc e , a nd re c e ive d a tte ntio n the re a nd a lso a m o ng so m e b usine ss c irc le s (it wa s re vie w e d , fo r e xa m p le , in Busine ss We e k). But in the Ne the rla nd s, fo r e xa m p le , Be yo nd the Limits is o n the she lve s, b ut stim ula ting no thing o f the hulla b a lo o o f the o rig ina l. As fa r a s I c a n te ll, a fte r a sking a ro und a t se ve ra l ‘ g lo b a l c ha ng e ’ c o nfe re nc e s, the ne w ve rsio n ha s ha d a ra the r m o d e st im p a c t c o m p a re d to Limits. In c lim a to lo g ic a l c irc le s, a m o ng sc ie ntists c o nc e rne d w ith g lo b a l w a rm ing , the re is little a w a re ne ss o f the ne w b o o k. Am o ng e c o no m ists who re a c te d stro ng ly to the o rig ina l p ub lic a tio n, a nd e ffe c tive ly d ista nc e d the m se lve s fro m it, the re is p ra c tic a lly no inte re st. This is a sha me , fo r a s Ja n Tinb e rg e n p o ints o ut in his intro d uc tio n, ‘ we m ust b e g ra te ful to the a utho rs fo r illustra ting the c o ntrib utio ns tha t e c o no m ic s a nd o the r d isc ip line s m ust m a ke to m e e t the g re a t hum a n c ha lle ng e . .‘_ We m a y no t b e lie ve a ll the num b e rs, b ut we sho uld he e d the me ssa g e . FUTURES September 1993