More than 30 years ago, a book called The Limits to Growth created an international sensation. Co... more More than 30 years ago, a book called The Limits to Growth created an international sensation. Commissioned by the Club of Rome, an international group of businessmen, states- men, and scientists, The Limits to Growth was compiled by a team of experts from the U.S. and several foreign countries. Using system dynamics theory and a computer model called “World3,” the book presented and analyzed 12 scenarios that showed different possible patterns—and environmental outcomes—of world development over two centuries from 1900 to 2100. This is only a summary of the Book "THE LIMITS TO GROWTH". The book was written by Donella H. Meadows , Dennis L. Meadows, Jorgen Randers and William W. Behrens Ill.
EarthArXiv (California Digital Library), Dec 31, 2019
The first climate tipping point-Already in the past? 1 BI Norwegian Business School Subtitle Huma... more The first climate tipping point-Already in the past? 1 BI Norwegian Business School Subtitle Humanity may have passed its first climate tipping point and face self-sustained melting of the permafrost for hundreds of years even if all man-made GHG emissions are stopped.
The discussion of globalisation opens with an analysis of devlopment models for poor countries an... more The discussion of globalisation opens with an analysis of devlopment models for poor countries and rich countries. Let the poor world grow (Che il mondo povero possa crescere) examines the question of how the poor world (poor countries as well as populations) can be allowed to grow. It is clear that growth strategies for this world can and must be different from those which work for the rich world. The authors tackle the question in this chapter from the book Reinventing Prosperity. Managing Economic Growth to Reduce Unemployment, Inequality, and Climate Change. Written by Graeme Maxton and Jorgen Randers, the book constitutes a Report from the Club of Rome and was published in 2016 by the David Suzuki Institute and Greystone Books in Vancouver/Berkeley. Our sincere thanks go to Graeme Maxton and Jorgen Randers for granting "Futuribili" permission to reproduce chapter 11, "Let the Poor World Grow", with its analysis of the growth strategies of the three worlds: rich countries, developing countries and poor countries, and its emphasis on the strategies best suited to the poor world.
Written by the authors of The Limits to Growth, the book reinvigorates the argument that continue... more Written by the authors of The Limits to Growth, the book reinvigorates the argument that continued population growth and consumption might outstrip the Earth's natural capacities. The authors use updated figures and information to restate the orginal case presended 20 years ago. It is not hostile to technolgical solutions, but it does argue that technology will not replace the capacities of nature.
Historical data for the last fifty years shows that there is a surprisingly strong correlation be... more Historical data for the last fifty years shows that there is a surprisingly strong correlation between the growth rate of a nation’s GDP per person and its income level. The growth rate declines linearly with income, and this relationship can be used to estimate the future growth rate of a nation’s economy. Using the same method it is also possible to forecast the share of GDP in agriculture, industry, and services – and to demonstrate the continuing decline of the share in industry as a nation get very rich. This article concludes with a discussion of the likely impact of robotisation and greening on GDP growth.
Abstract Because of limited wood resources the Scandinavian forest sector will soon have to make ... more Abstract Because of limited wood resources the Scandinavian forest sector will soon have to make the transition from rapid to slow industrial growth. This will mean increased wood prices, excessive removals, increased centralisation, and reduced employment. The authors discuss the strategies available to cushion the effects of the transition, and the factors that should be taken into account when choosing a strategy. Their conclusions are based on a computer model which enables possible developments in the forest sector over the next 30–50 years to be simulated quickly.
International Journal of Environmental Studies, 1973
An example has been given showing how system simulation can be used to arrive at conclusions of u... more An example has been given showing how system simulation can be used to arrive at conclusions of use to policymakers about the future consequences of current actions even in the case where complete information about the system is not available. The particular example studied is the general movement of DDT in the global eco‐system. The results suggest that, even if
We have made a simple system dynamics model, ESCIMO, which runs on a desktop computer in seconds ... more We have made a simple system dynamics model, ESCIMO, which runs on a desktop computer in seconds and is able to reproduce the main output from more complex climate models. ESCIMO represents the main causal mechanisms at work in the Earth system and is able to reproduce the broad outline of climate history from 1850 to 2015. We have made many simulations with ESCIMO to 2100 and beyond. In this paper we present the effects of introducing in 2015 six possible global policy interventions that cost around 1,000 billion US$ per yeararound 1 % of world GDP. We tentatively conclude a) that these policy interventions can at most reduce the global mean surface temperature-GMSTby up to 0.5°C in 2050 and up to 1.0°C in 2100 relative to no intervention. The exception is injection of aerosols in the stratosphere, which can reduce the GMST by more than 1.0°C in a decade, but creates other serious problems. We also conclude b) that relatively cheap human intervention can keep global warming in this century below +2°C relative to preindustrial times. Finally, we conclude c) that runaway warming is unlikely to occur in this century, but is likely to occur in the longer run. The ensuing warming is slow, however. In ESCIMO, it takes several hundred years to lift the GMST to +3°C over preindustrial times through gradual self-reinforcing melting of the permafrost. We call for research to test whether more complex climate models support our tentative conclusions from ESCIMO.
After an explanation of the difference between linear and exponential growth the use of these con... more After an explanation of the difference between linear and exponential growth the use of these concepts to study the complex interaction between population industrialization food supply and increased pollution is detailed. The computer analysis on which this report is based is called System Dynamics. The basis of this method is recognition that the structure of a system is often just as important as the individual components in determining behavior. This is based on "feedback" systems which are explained with diagrams. The positive feedback loop affecting world population is births per year the negative is deaths per year. It is concluded that the positive effect of more births will continue to increase world population at a rapid rate unless some great change occurs. If present rates in births and deaths continue in 60 years there will be 4 times as many people living as are living today. World industrial output is growing 7% a year world population only 2%. This would seem to indicate a rising standard of living for everyone. However most growth is taking place in industrialized countries. Since the less developed countries have higher population growth if present trends continue the absolute gap between rich and poor nations will widen. to bring about intelligent change such questions as "how many people can the earth support" and "at what level" must be asked.
This technical note presents the bases for the Earth3 model system with a focus on how SDGs and P... more This technical note presents the bases for the Earth3 model system with a focus on how SDGs and Planetary Boundaries are assessed in the model. This includes data selection, sources, analysis and forecasting methods. We also present the threshold levels that have been chosen for the respective SDGs and Planetary Boundaries.
More than 30 years ago, a book called The Limits to Growth created an international sensation. Co... more More than 30 years ago, a book called The Limits to Growth created an international sensation. Commissioned by the Club of Rome, an international group of businessmen, states- men, and scientists, The Limits to Growth was compiled by a team of experts from the U.S. and several foreign countries. Using system dynamics theory and a computer model called “World3,” the book presented and analyzed 12 scenarios that showed different possible patterns—and environmental outcomes—of world development over two centuries from 1900 to 2100. This is only a summary of the Book "THE LIMITS TO GROWTH". The book was written by Donella H. Meadows , Dennis L. Meadows, Jorgen Randers and William W. Behrens Ill.
EarthArXiv (California Digital Library), Dec 31, 2019
The first climate tipping point-Already in the past? 1 BI Norwegian Business School Subtitle Huma... more The first climate tipping point-Already in the past? 1 BI Norwegian Business School Subtitle Humanity may have passed its first climate tipping point and face self-sustained melting of the permafrost for hundreds of years even if all man-made GHG emissions are stopped.
The discussion of globalisation opens with an analysis of devlopment models for poor countries an... more The discussion of globalisation opens with an analysis of devlopment models for poor countries and rich countries. Let the poor world grow (Che il mondo povero possa crescere) examines the question of how the poor world (poor countries as well as populations) can be allowed to grow. It is clear that growth strategies for this world can and must be different from those which work for the rich world. The authors tackle the question in this chapter from the book Reinventing Prosperity. Managing Economic Growth to Reduce Unemployment, Inequality, and Climate Change. Written by Graeme Maxton and Jorgen Randers, the book constitutes a Report from the Club of Rome and was published in 2016 by the David Suzuki Institute and Greystone Books in Vancouver/Berkeley. Our sincere thanks go to Graeme Maxton and Jorgen Randers for granting "Futuribili" permission to reproduce chapter 11, "Let the Poor World Grow", with its analysis of the growth strategies of the three worlds: rich countries, developing countries and poor countries, and its emphasis on the strategies best suited to the poor world.
Written by the authors of The Limits to Growth, the book reinvigorates the argument that continue... more Written by the authors of The Limits to Growth, the book reinvigorates the argument that continued population growth and consumption might outstrip the Earth's natural capacities. The authors use updated figures and information to restate the orginal case presended 20 years ago. It is not hostile to technolgical solutions, but it does argue that technology will not replace the capacities of nature.
Historical data for the last fifty years shows that there is a surprisingly strong correlation be... more Historical data for the last fifty years shows that there is a surprisingly strong correlation between the growth rate of a nation’s GDP per person and its income level. The growth rate declines linearly with income, and this relationship can be used to estimate the future growth rate of a nation’s economy. Using the same method it is also possible to forecast the share of GDP in agriculture, industry, and services – and to demonstrate the continuing decline of the share in industry as a nation get very rich. This article concludes with a discussion of the likely impact of robotisation and greening on GDP growth.
Abstract Because of limited wood resources the Scandinavian forest sector will soon have to make ... more Abstract Because of limited wood resources the Scandinavian forest sector will soon have to make the transition from rapid to slow industrial growth. This will mean increased wood prices, excessive removals, increased centralisation, and reduced employment. The authors discuss the strategies available to cushion the effects of the transition, and the factors that should be taken into account when choosing a strategy. Their conclusions are based on a computer model which enables possible developments in the forest sector over the next 30–50 years to be simulated quickly.
International Journal of Environmental Studies, 1973
An example has been given showing how system simulation can be used to arrive at conclusions of u... more An example has been given showing how system simulation can be used to arrive at conclusions of use to policymakers about the future consequences of current actions even in the case where complete information about the system is not available. The particular example studied is the general movement of DDT in the global eco‐system. The results suggest that, even if
We have made a simple system dynamics model, ESCIMO, which runs on a desktop computer in seconds ... more We have made a simple system dynamics model, ESCIMO, which runs on a desktop computer in seconds and is able to reproduce the main output from more complex climate models. ESCIMO represents the main causal mechanisms at work in the Earth system and is able to reproduce the broad outline of climate history from 1850 to 2015. We have made many simulations with ESCIMO to 2100 and beyond. In this paper we present the effects of introducing in 2015 six possible global policy interventions that cost around 1,000 billion US$ per yeararound 1 % of world GDP. We tentatively conclude a) that these policy interventions can at most reduce the global mean surface temperature-GMSTby up to 0.5°C in 2050 and up to 1.0°C in 2100 relative to no intervention. The exception is injection of aerosols in the stratosphere, which can reduce the GMST by more than 1.0°C in a decade, but creates other serious problems. We also conclude b) that relatively cheap human intervention can keep global warming in this century below +2°C relative to preindustrial times. Finally, we conclude c) that runaway warming is unlikely to occur in this century, but is likely to occur in the longer run. The ensuing warming is slow, however. In ESCIMO, it takes several hundred years to lift the GMST to +3°C over preindustrial times through gradual self-reinforcing melting of the permafrost. We call for research to test whether more complex climate models support our tentative conclusions from ESCIMO.
After an explanation of the difference between linear and exponential growth the use of these con... more After an explanation of the difference between linear and exponential growth the use of these concepts to study the complex interaction between population industrialization food supply and increased pollution is detailed. The computer analysis on which this report is based is called System Dynamics. The basis of this method is recognition that the structure of a system is often just as important as the individual components in determining behavior. This is based on "feedback" systems which are explained with diagrams. The positive feedback loop affecting world population is births per year the negative is deaths per year. It is concluded that the positive effect of more births will continue to increase world population at a rapid rate unless some great change occurs. If present rates in births and deaths continue in 60 years there will be 4 times as many people living as are living today. World industrial output is growing 7% a year world population only 2%. This would seem to indicate a rising standard of living for everyone. However most growth is taking place in industrialized countries. Since the less developed countries have higher population growth if present trends continue the absolute gap between rich and poor nations will widen. to bring about intelligent change such questions as "how many people can the earth support" and "at what level" must be asked.
This technical note presents the bases for the Earth3 model system with a focus on how SDGs and P... more This technical note presents the bases for the Earth3 model system with a focus on how SDGs and Planetary Boundaries are assessed in the model. This includes data selection, sources, analysis and forecasting methods. We also present the threshold levels that have been chosen for the respective SDGs and Planetary Boundaries.
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