Climate Change and Sustainability

Ordos Desert Bo Hai Sea Rive Yello w Great Wall Yel low Riv er Yello w Rive r The Source and Flow of Yellow, Yangtze, Ganges & Indus Rivers r Yangtze River Source of Yellow River: Bayan Har Mountains, Qinghai Lanzhou Yangtze River iv tze R Yang River al ay as err Rive es ng Ga Gan Ganges ges Ganges Indus River Arabian Sea Ya ng tz e Ganges Delta Bay of Bengal Yangtze R iv er s Gange Hi m Ri ve er r Senge Zangbu (Lion River) tze ng a Y Rvi Yan gtz e Mt. Kailash Ya ng tz e Source Areas of Indus River Ganges r ive sR u Ind w llo Ye Yellow River Yellow River r ve Ri Ind us Riv er s du In Source of Yangzi River: Geladaindong Peak, Tanggula Mountains, Qinghai er East China Sea Indus River r ve Ri Climate change and Sustainability Climate change and Sustainability Tariq Husain 1 Climate change and Sustainability We are born weak, we need strength. Helpless, we need aid. Foolish, we need reason. All that we lack at birth, all that we need, when we come to men's estate, is the gift of education. Quote of Jean Jacques Rousseau Printers, Publishers 2 Climate change and Sustainability Climate change and Sustainability 3 4 Page Chart-5 Table of Contents Page I. II. III. IV. V. VI. VII. Introduction What is Sustainable Development? The Science of Climate Change Choice for Nation States Water Security What has been humanity's response? What Next? Annexure for Technical Information Cross-reference of Charts to the Atlas 5 6 7 15 19 21 25 28 30 Text, Charts and Map Chart # Chart-1 Chart-2 Chart-3 Chart-4 Approximate Contributions of Greenhouse Gases Carbon dioxide in the Atmosphere Trends in Carbon Sources and Sinks CO2 Fluctuations and Link with Temperatures 8 9 9 10 Surface Temperatures from 900 AD-1900 AD 11 Chart-6 Projected Global Warming Ranges 13 Chart-7 Projected Sea Level Rise 14 Chart-8 Progress towards Kyoto Targets 20 Chart-9 Personal Actions for Emission Reductions 23 Chart-10 Renewable Energy Sources 24 Chart-11 Methane and Nitrous oxide for Selected Countries 27 Map 16-17 Climate change and Sustainability Climate change and Sustainability 5 6 sustainable development. II. What is sustainable development? 2. The most comprehensive definition of sustainable development was given in the Brundtland Report1 titled ''Our Common Future'' ''Sustainable development is development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs.'' This definition contains two concepts: (i) The concept of needs, in particular the essential needs of the poor, to which overriding priority should be given; and Climate change and Sustainability* (ii) the concept of limitations imposed by the existing state of technology and social organization on humanity's ability to meet present and expected future human needs. Every child born has the right to walk on clean grass under a blue sky, breathe fresh air and drink pure water. ** Captain Jacques Cousteau 3. These concepts introduce system-wide connections which are both intra and inter generational. An example of intra-generational connection is air pollution affecting the non-producers of pollution beyond city and country boundaries: I. Introduction 1. Climate change is affecting our planet as a whole and has the potential of destabilizing countries and populations across many generations. The manner in which humanity attempts to mitigate the possible effects is the most serious, in fact most comprehensive, test of sustainability. In this paper I would like to discuss a bit of the science of climate change, its implications for humanity, and what we have done so far to address the implicit and explicit challenges. In the end, I give my assessment of these efforts using the litmus test of * I wrote this article in December 2014 when I read about the weak agreement by the 190 nation meeting on climate change in Lima, Peru. This meeting was supposed to create a binding post-Kyoto framework for climate change. However, the meeting postponed the tough decisions to end - 2015. ** Jacques-Yves Cousteau Leader of Conservationist thinking in the Twentieth century; Oceanographer; Commander, Legion of Honour, France; Commander Order of Maritime merit; Commander Order of Arts and Letters. Electricity produced by high sulphur content coal causing acid rain faraway from the power station. An example of inter-generational connection is the high consumption rate of non-renewable fossil fuels by the current generation reducing their availability to future generations. This inter-generational effect is applicable to consumption of all natural capital (fuel, forest, water, scenery,..). The concept of sustainability is rooted in this system wide thinking and the associated responsibilities of the actors – the current generation (specially the adults) in relation to: (i) the poor and the vulnerable contemporaneous 1 World Commission on Environment and Development: Our Common Future. Oxford University Press, 1987. Climate change and Sustainability 7 with this generation; and (ii) all future generations. 4. In this framework, the current generation can foreclose options both for the unborn as well as for the contemporaneous vulnerable. Global warming and its effects on climate presents challenges to the current generation that it has not faced in recorded history. The next section discusses these challenges and the available choices. III. The Science of Climate change 5. The Greenhouse Effect. The earth's climate system is a set of complex interactions among natural resources and human activity. The atmosphere acts as a thermal blanket for the earth preventing heat (and other radiation) from the sun reaching the surface where humans live as well as preventing its rapid loss back into space. Human activity affects the temperature balancing capacity of the atmosphere. During the last 250 years human activity – such as excessive burning of fossil fuels, the release of industrial chemicals, the removal of forests that absorb carbon dioxide2; the intensification of livestock farming....... has changed the carbon content of the atmosphere and increased its heat retention capacity. This is the greenhouse effect which has slowly increased the average temperature on the earth's surface. The major greenhouse gases are carbon dioxide tropospheric ozone3, nitrous oxide4, and methane5; other industrial chemicals, including many halocarbons6, also 2 3 4 5 6 CO2 carbon dioxide O3 ozone N2O Nitrous oxide CH4 methane CFCs chlorofluoro carbons: Compounds containing carbon and one or more of the three halogens – fluorine, chlorine and bromine. Other chemicals with carbon HCFC Hydrochlorofluoro carbon HFC Hydro fluoro carbon Climate change and Sustainability Chart-1 Approximate Contributions of Greenhouse Gases 8 Climate change and Sustainability Climate change and Sustainability 9 10 Chart-2 Co2 in the Atmosphere contribute to the greenhouse effect. 6. These greenhouse gases are retained by the atmosphere for different durations and also have different heat holding7 capacities: Chart-1 presents the increases in the concentrations of selected greenhouse gases since 1750 AD. It also gives the approximate contributions of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere; and their atmospheric life times8. As examples, carbon dioxide's atmospheric lifetime is 100 years; that of methane is only twelve. But methane is 25 times more potent as a greenhouse gas. Nitrous oxide is 300 times more potent, and with an atmospheric lifetime of 114 years. Please see Annexure for more technical details 7 The information in this and subsequent Charts is from ''The Atlas of Climate Change'' by Kristin Dow and Thomas E. Downing, Third Edition (2011), University of California Press, Berkeley. I am thankful to the authors and publishers of the Atlas for access to the rich Information which was crucial for explaining the issues to students and researchers . Climate change and Sustainability Climate change and Sustainability 11 12 7. Link between CO2 and earth's temperature. Scientific observations indicate that in 2014 the earth is warmer than at any time in the past 1000 years. Also, the concentrations of carbon dioxide and methane are higher than at any time in the last 800,000 years. The records of earth's past climate have been reconstructed from ice cores, tree rings, paleoclimatic* finger prints in ocean and lake sediments, cave deposits, glaciers and ship records of sea-surface temperature. These records confirm that human activity has contributed to global warming8. Charts 2,3,4 and 5; and 11. The atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide has risen from 315 parts per million (ppm) in the 1950s to about 388 ppm in 2010. This increase has contributed to the observed temperature increase on earth's surface. It is statistically explained by human activity since the Industrial Revolution which enabled humanity to use fossil fuels for heat, transport, manufacturing, agriculture, ……. Fluctuations in past temperatures (pre-Industrial Revolution9; and long time ago) have been shown to be entirely due to natural forces, such as cycles of solar energy, changes in the earth's orbit, and volcanic eruptions. 8. What to expect by the end of 2100: The pre-industrial concentration of carbon dioxide was 280 ppm. It was 315 ppm in the 1950s and was 388 ppm in 2010. Projections for the next 50 or 100 years are based on: (i) plausible estimates of fossil fuel use; (ii) extent of use of carbon emission reducing technologies; and (iii) population and economic growth. Policies that can slow the growth of emissions are built into projection models to develop ''WHAT IF SCENARIOS.’' * 8 9 Historic or geologic times. The Atlas of Climate Change. Charts-2, 3, 4 and 5; and 11 in Annexure. The pre-Industrial Revolution atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide was 280 parts per million. Climate change and Sustainability 13 Climate change and Sustainability 14 Climate change and Sustainability Climate change and Sustainability 15 since 1987 when the Brundtland Report introduced sustainability as a goal and thus a criterion for global policy. In making the adjustments to achieve sustainable development, however, developing countries, even though non-significant contributors to historical emissions, will be (and are) faced with the burden of energy policy adjustment. The current top seven emitters include China, Brazil, Indonesia, Russia and India. Including the US and European Union, this group of seven currently account for sixty percent of the emissions. In aggregate terms, China is now the world's top emitter, ahead of the USA. On a per capita basis, of course, USA remains the biggest carbon contributor to the environment12. The imbalance between responsibility for the current causes of climate change and its impacts has created a complex global inequity. The fate of the planet depends on how 200 nation states address it? The current scientific wisdom is to try to keep the emissions below a level which corresponds to a maximum temperature increase of 2 degree centigrade. In the absence of a concerted Climate Policy, most scenarios expect a concentration of about 520 ppm by 2100. By 2050, the already existing carbon dioxide concentrations are expected to produce an increase of about 1 degree centigrade over the average temperature during 1960-1990. By 2100 the maximum temperature increase could be as high as 6 degree centigrade with disastrous consequences* for vulnerable human populations. Chart-610 presents the range of projected global warming by the end of the 21st century. Chart-6 and 7 show projected global warming and the effect on sea level rise. 9. Preventing catastrophic climate change is a central mandate of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). There is increasing scientific consensus that global warming of 2° centigrade represents a major threshold in risk. International Organizations have set 2°C as a target for maximum global climate change. This target was included in the Copenhagen Accord11. But all nations do not agree. African nations prefer a maximum of 1.5°C. The big question is how to reach an agreement on the target when consequences and costs vary by nation, region and ability to adapt to change. 11. All nation states have an entrenched commitment to carbonintensive economies. For the industrial world their current carbon intensities may be considered as luxury consumption; for the developing world, it is basic needs. The 12 Annual per capita emission of carbon dioxide varies from 18.4 tons for the US to 1.3 tons for India. For China, it is 4.9 tons. The table below gives the current per capita emissions for selected countries. IV. Choices for Nation States 10. Industrial nations are primarily responsible for the exponential increase in the atmospheric concentration of carbon. These countries focused on their energy needs for development, rather than for sustainability. That was rational when humanity was not aware that our planet can also have an absorptive capacity constraint. However, in 2014 the situation is different. Actually, it has been different * Loss of inhabited land from rising sea levels and serious conflicts due to large scale intra and inter-country migrations. 10 The Atlas of Climate Change. 11 The Copenhagen Accord was agreed in December 2009 by 141 countries. 16 Table-1 Carbon dioxide Emissions per person (2008) Country USA Russia Germany Japan UK China Mexico Brazil Indonesia India Scoure. The Atlas of Climate Change. Emissions/Capita 18.4 11.2 9.8 9.0 8.3 4.9 3.8 1.9 1.7 1.3 Tons/year Climate change and Sustainability Climate change and Sustainability 17 18 Bo Hai Sea Rive Yello w Great Wall Yel low Riv er Ordos Desert Yello w Rive r MAP The Source and Flow of Yellow, Yangtze, Ganges & Indus Rivers r Yangtze River Source of Yellow River: Bayan Har Mountains, Qinghai Lanzhou Yangtze River iv tze R Yang River River es ng Ga Ganges Ganges Indus River Arabian Sea Ya ng tz e Ganges Delta Bay of Bengal r as Yangtze R iv e al ay Ri ve er s Gange Hi m tze ng Ya Ri ve Yan gtz e Senge Zangbu (Lion River) r r Mt. Kailash Ya ng tz e Source Areas of Indus River Ganges er Riv s u Ind w llo Ye Yellow River Yellow River ve Ri Ind us Riv er s du In Source of Yangzi River: Geladaindong Peak, Tanggula Mountains, Qinghai r East China Sea Indus River r ve Ri Climate change and Sustainability 19 burden from increasing population and the need for energy puts an almost unstoppable pressure on humans to continue using carbon based energy. How to shift to less carbon-intensive energy sources is the challenge? 12. Given the planet's current vulnerabilities to climate change, global policies and actions for mitigation and adaptation will determine whether sustainable development for all of us will be possible. Some groups and nations will adjust and survive; but will all of us – including the unborn – be able to enjoy sustainable development? V. Water Security 13. Uncontrolled climate change will disrupt the ecosystems of the planet and require adjustments at a scale humanity has not experienced before. Sea levels are rising and could rise many meters leading to sea encroachments on currently inhabited lands (Chart-7). Many low lying countries (Mauritius, Bangladesh;) will go under water. All this has been widely discussed, but seems too remote for current political leadership to take serious note of. One issue – water security – however, is a challenge which matters for all – the rich and the poor alike. 14. Higher temperatures will increase evaporation and evapotranspiration. This will reduce available supply of drinkable water. The accelerated melting of the glaciers and icefields of Arctic, Antarctic, Himalayas and Greenland will vastly reduce potential availability of fresh water. Meanwhile, human population is heading toward nine billion. For South and East Asia, the dangers are imminent because the Himalayan glaciers are also melting at an accelerated pace and are expected to disappear in another fifty years. These glaciers feed the Indus, Ganges, Yangtze and Yellow Rivers. (Please see Map). Loss of or decline from this source of fresh water will be catastrophic for agriculture, transport, drinkable water,… food, exports…….. i.e. the key support systems for life and sustainable development. Climate change and Sustainability 20 Climate change and Sustainability burden from increasing population and the need for energy puts an almost unstoppable pressure on humans to continue using carbon based energy. How to shift to less carbon-intensive energy sources is the challenge? 12. Given the planet's current vulnerabilities to climate change, global policies and actions for mitigation and adaptation will determine whether sustainable development for all of us will be possible. Some groups and nations will adjust and survive; but will all of us – including the unborn – be able to enjoy sustainable development? V. Water Security 13. Uncontrolled climate change will disrupt the ecosystems of the planet and require adjustments at a scale humanity has not experienced before. Sea levels are rising and could rise many meters leading to sea encroachments on currently inhabited lands (Chart-7). Many low lying countries (Mauritius, Bangladesh;) will go under water. All this has been widely discussed, but seems too remote for current political leadership to take serious note of. One issue – water security – however, is a challenge which matters for all – the rich and the poor alike. 14. Higher temperatures will increase evaporation and evapotranspiration. This will reduce available supply of drinkable water. The accelerated melting of the glaciers and icefields of Arctic, Antarctic, Himalayas and Greenland will vastly reduce potential availability of fresh water. Meanwhile, human population is heading toward nine billion. For South and East Asia, the dangers are imminent because the Himalayan glaciers are also melting at an accelerated pace and are expected to disappear in another fifty years. These glaciers feed the Indus, Ganges, Yangtze and Yellow Rivers. (Please see Map). Loss of or decline from this source of fresh water will be catastrophic for agriculture, * See Annexure for definition Climate change and Sustainability 21 22 transport, drinkable water,… food, exports…….. i.e. the key support systems for life and sustainable development. The Map shows how these rivers rely on Himalayan glaciers (Gangotri; Satopanth; Khatling; Angsi, plus waters from melting peaks as Nanda Devi, Trisul, Kedernath, Nanda Kot, Tangulla, and Kamet). These glaciers are twenty times the size of glaciers in European Alps. According to recent observations, the eastern and central parts of this area are experiencing accelerated melting. The western part of the region is experiencing slower melting due to differences in mean altitude and terrain. The Indus River gets about 40 percent of its inflows from the eastern glaciers and is more vulnerable than the Ganges and Brahmaputra Rivers. Both the Indus and Ganges Rivers, serve the agricultural heartlands of Pakistan, India and Bangladesh. On the Chinese side, the Yangtze is the heart of the Middle Kingdom serving about 500 million Chinese citizens. The Yellow (Huang He) River serves northern China, and like Indus, is highly vulnerable to the environmental impact of glaciers melting. During the last forty years the glaciers feeding the Yellow River have shrunk by about 20 percent. This rate is ten times the average rate of the preceding three centuries. Two plus billion humans in South & East Asia will face this change in two generations. We have not begun to adjust. Most of us are not even thinking about it. Is someone else doing some worrying? VI. What has been Humanity's Response? 15. Reducing greenhouse gases to a safe level requires genuine international cooperation. The UN Framework Convention 13 14 The Atlas of Climate Change. Article 2 of UNFCCC states that the ''ultimate objective is to achieve stabilization of greenhouse gas concentration in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system…… within a time frame sufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to ensure … food security…. sustainable development.'’ Climate change and Sustainability 23 Climate change and Sustainability 24 Climate change and Sustainability Climate change and Sustainability 25 Note that the US did not ratify the Kyoto Protocol even though it was, by far, the largest emitter of carbon dioxide. Turkey and Belaurus also did not participate. (Chart-8) on Climate Change (UNFCCC) was agreed and signed in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil in June 1992, it was adopted in 1997 but came into force in 2005. USA, then the biggest emitter ratified the Convention but not the Protocol. Australia finally ratified the Protocol in 2007. This Convention placed the onus on the top emitters – industrial countries and twelve transition economies* to reduce their own emissions plus finance and assist developing countries to reduce their emissions in ways that will not slow down their economic progress. This is not an easy task and the inherent conflict among rich & poorer nations is responsible for the continuing international disagreement. 18. The Cancun Agreements (of 2009) include US $100 billion a year by 2020 for mitigation and adaptation in developing countries. So far, less than one percent is available in 24 Global Climate Funds. The Cancun and Copenhagen meetings realized that real progress will be slow. That realization was confirmed in the most recent meeting in Lima (Peru). This meeting had representatives from 190 countries but had to overstay to reach a weak, non – binding Resolution: 16. The first addition to the UNFCCC was the Kyoto Protocol (signed in 1992) which set emission reduction targets. However, as noted above, it was ratified in 2007 and the US did not ratify the Protocol. The agreed targets were to be met during 2008-2012. We are entering 2015 and no country has, so far, met 100 percent of its agreed target. The Kyoto Protocol, meanwhile, expired in 2012 and there has not been a replacement. Chart-8 presents progress towards Kyoto targets of the participating countries13. This was the status in 2011. Not much has changed since. 17. The negotiations (called Conference of Parties) occur throughout the year and in 2009 a meeting in Copenhagen produced an Accord – called the Copenhagen Accord. Under this Accord, Participating Countries adopted a voluntary target of limiting global temperature change to 2 degrees centigrade. A follow up meeting (in 2010) took place in Cancun, Mexico to agree on procedures for financing and monitoring. Both of these require further actions and these take time. Most nations signed the UNFCCC Convention14 but the ratification of the Protocol required the forging of agreements at home. Meeting emission reduction targets require modifications in the use of energy sources and impacts on many domestic stakeholders-Parliament, Local Government; Chambers of Commerce; NGOs; Small Business Groups; ……. This is neither easy nor costless 26 “Governments will submit national plans for reining in greenhouse gas emissions by an informal deadline of March 31, 2015 to form the basis of a global agreement due at a Summit in Paris in a year's time.” Most of the tough decisions about how to slow climate change were postponed till then. 19. This weak and non-binding resolution was reached two days into overtime after two weeks of talks came close to collapse. This agreement had one good outcome. Both USA for the rich, and India/China/Brazil for the developing world considered it a ''Win''. The UN Climate Chief also felt satisfied and said that: “What we are seeing is a new form of international cooperation on climate change where all countries participate with a new set of rules.” However, the UN Climate Secretariat is less optimistic about the possibility of reaching a binding Agreement for all participants for the goal of 2 degree centigrade target. 15 Atlas of Climate Change Climate change and Sustainability Climate change and Sustainability 27 28 VII. What Next? 20. This dream-number of 2 degree centigrade is, itself, a compromise and is unlikely to ensure that ecosystems will be preserved and serious dislocations of human habitations averted. Some of the worst consequences can be averted only when the world as a whole begins to undertake far deeper efforts than international agreements can produce. Individual efforts will have to be an essential adjunct. Knowledge and technology exist to support substantial improvements: Conservation, Solar, Small Scale Hydro, Biomass, Geothermal, Wind, Insulation, Lower Thermostats, Walking, Bicycling are actions which can be taken by individuals and small or large communities15 (Chart-9, Chart-10). However, the changes needed to increase the resilience and efficiency of buildings, cities, transportation systems, energy composition,…. will require cooperation and support of business, NGOs and governments. Sustainable Development is a long term effort and will continue to require innovation and evolutionary adaptation by all humanity. That, so far, is a dream!  Annexure for Technical Information Technical Terms and Definitions EIT: Economies in transition, these are countries with national economies in the process of changing from planned economic system to market economy. Refers to the former communist countries of Europe. OECD: Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. Thirty European countries sharing a commitment to democratic government and the market economy. Paleoclimate: Climate for the periods prior to the development of measuring instruments, including historic or geologic times for which only proxy records are available. Kyoto Protocol: To the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) adopted in 1997 in Kyoto, Japan. It contains legally binding commitments, in addition to those included in the UNFCCC. Countries in its Annex-B – OECD and EIT – agreed to reduce their anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions by at least 5 percent below 1990 levels in the commitment period 2008 to 2012. The Kyoto Protocol entered into force in 2005. It Science and Sustainability Science and Sustainability 29 30 Cross-reference of Charts to the Atlas* Atlas* Text Page # Chart # Title 35 Chart-1 Approximate Contributions of Greenhouse Gases 46 Chart-2 Carbon dioxide in the Atmosphere 57 Chart-3 Trends in Carbon Sources and Sinks 38 Chart-4 CO2 Fluctuctions and Link with Temperatures 39 Chart-5 Surface Temperatures from 900 AD - 1900 AD 41 Chart-6 Projected Global Warming Range 69 Chart-7 Projected Sea Level Rise 93 Chart-8 Progress towards Kyoto Targets 102 Chart-9 Personal Actions for Emission Reductions. 83 Chart-10 Renewable Energy Sources Annexure for Technical Information 51 Chart-11 Methane and Nitrous oxide for Selected Countries * The Atlas of Climate Change by Kirstin Dow and Thomas E. Downing. Published by : University of California Press, Berkeley – Los Angeles. Science and Sustainability 31 Given the pleasures and benefits that it brings, it is not surprising that the typical image of literacy is of opening doors or windows of light and space, of boundlessness. Literacy is inseparable from opportunity and opportunity is inseparable from freedom. The freedom promised by literacy is both: ■ Freedom from ignorance, oppression, poverty, and ■ Freedom to do new things, to make new choices to learn. Quote of Koichiro Matsuura, UNESCO Science and Sustainability “… Everyone has the right to a standard of living adequate for the health and well-being of himself (herself) and his (her) family, including food, clothing, housing and medical care and necessary social services… Everyone has the right… to education… to work… And to social security…” The 1948 Universal Declaration of Human Rights 32