Federal Auditor from the Brazilian National Treasury/Ministry of Finance since 2007. Received his PhD degree in Finance at The University of Texas, Rio Grande Valley in 2018.
This paper examines the effect of country-specific investor attention on ADR mispricing. Investor... more This paper examines the effect of country-specific investor attention on ADR mispricing. Investor attention is measured by the amount of traffic a country's Wikipedia profile page receives. A twostage least squares (2SLS) regression is employed to examine the relationship between investor attention and ADR mispricing, but also to mitigate endogeneity between the two variables of interest. We use the FIFA World Ranking (country soccer ranking) and the number of UNESCO heritage sites as instruments for investor attention, given the unlikelihood that either of those variables can be caused by ADR mispricing. Our results show that lower levels of investor attention lead to higher ADR mispricing, therefore leading to greater divergence of the law of one price for the sample of ADRs. The results are robust across various model specifications and to well-known determinants of mispricing such as turnover, stock prices, exchange rates, and market capitalisation.
This paper examines the effect of country-specific investor attention on ADR mispricing. Investor... more This paper examines the effect of country-specific investor attention on ADR mispricing. Investor attention is measured by the amount of traffic a country's Wikipedia profile page receives. A twostage least squares (2SLS) regression is employed to examine the relationship between investor attention and ADR mispricing, but also to mitigate endogeneity between the two variables of interest. We use the FIFA World Ranking (country soccer ranking) and the number of UNESCO heritage sites as instruments for investor attention, given the unlikelihood that either of those variables can be caused by ADR mispricing. Our results show that lower levels of investor attention lead to higher ADR mispricing, therefore leading to greater divergence of the law of one price for the sample of ADRs. The results are robust across various model specifications and to well-known determinants of mispricing such as turnover, stock prices, exchange rates, and market capitalisation.
This study investigates the ability for option markets to mitigate short-sale constraints using t... more This study investigates the ability for option markets to mitigate short-sale constraints using the natural experiment of the short-sale ban in 2008. Following the SEC's amendment prior to the second trading day of the ban that clarifies that market makers are exempt from the short sale ban, there was a significant increase in relative put option volume during the remaining 13 days of the ban. Employing the framework of Miller's (1977) overvaluation hypothesis, the results suggest that put option trades reduce overpricing to the greatest extent when short-sale constraints are effectively binding and dispersion of investor opinion is large. Together, these results provide evidence that option trades act as substitutes for short selling.
Governments implemented fiscal stimulus packages to alleviate the global financial crisis of 2007... more Governments implemented fiscal stimulus packages to alleviate the global financial crisis of 2007-2009. Using annual data from 1996 to 2019, we investigate economic growth in a large sample of countries for pre-and post-Global Financial Crisis years. Our approach analyzes the interaction between institutional quality and government size (government expenditures as share of GDP), reinforced by threshold estimations. We document that economies react to government size depending on the quality of the institutions in question. First, fixed effects models indicate higher institutional quality has positive effects on growth, while government size-and its interactions with institutional quality-has negative effects. Second, the coefficients of government size on economic growth are negative with higher institutional quality and become larger in the post-Global Financial Crisis years. These combined results indicate that higher-quality institutions make economies less tolerant of rising government expenditures than lower-quality institutions. Our main findings support institutional quality as the channel through which fiscal policy has real effects. The evidence herein is robust to measures of institutional quality from different databases.
This master’s thesis aims to apply the well-established gravity equation in international trade t... more This master’s thesis aims to apply the well-established gravity equation in international trade to the Brazilian economy, in the period from 1993 to 2011. In the first empirical experiment, data were collected for 106 countries, which represent 94.4% of the Brazilian trade flow in 2011. The applicability of the gravity equation to the Brazilian case was confirmed, and the most explanatory binary variables were Mercosul, Asian Tigers, and the English and French languages, these last two being negative correlated to the Brazilian total trade. It was also possible to discard the national border relevance (McCallum’s Border Puzzle) as a barrier to the Brazilian trade flow. In the second experiment, an exchange rate, which embeds purchasing power variations, was collected for a total of 32 countries. This variable was proved significant in simulations by two of the three econometric methods tested. Most past researchers have intended to improve and test the theoretical foundations of this equation, although practically leaving out the single country case uninvestigated. Finally, it is worth emphasizing that the results of the first experiment showed that it is possible to reach an empirical model that optimizes the explanatory power of the Brazilian trade flow equation, using a reduced number of explanatory dummy variables.
Abstract Prior literature has documented that institutions which trade more frequently are better... more Abstract Prior literature has documented that institutions which trade more frequently are better able to forecast future returns and have an informational advantage. This study examines a proximate explanation for the differences in performance based on institutions’ investment horizon – short-term institutions are better informed because they are better able to identify overvalued stocks that are short-sale constrained and overvalued in the context of Miller’s (1977) overvaluation hypothesis. Analysis is conducted on 6,330 unique firms from 1996 to 2014 using the calendar-time portfolio approach where abnormal returns are estimated from the Fama-French-Carhart four-factor regression model. The results provide evidence that stocks which are extremely overvalued due to short-sale constraints have the greatest decline in short-term institutional ownership, consistent with the notion that short-term institutions are able to correctly assess the components for stock overvaluation.
Does government size increase to compensate for the volatility that arises from openness? We eval... more Does government size increase to compensate for the volatility that arises from openness? We evaluate this compensation hypothesis by focusing on Latin America, whose economic growth in the 2000s has been often attributed to the commodity boom. Panel data regressions show that during the 2003-2010 commodity boom terms of trade volatility has positive effects on government size compared to the earlier 1990-2002 period. This key finding supports the compensation hypothesis, a result robust to dynamic panels allowing for reverse causation from government size to the real economy. Policy implications include diversification of the production structure and strengthening of regulatory framework.
This article analyzes the effects of the American Taxpayer Relief Act of 2012 (Obama Tax Increase... more This article analyzes the effects of the American Taxpayer Relief Act of 2012 (Obama Tax Increase) and the Jobs and Growth Tax Relief Reconciliation Act of 2003 (Bush Tax Cut) on corporate payout decision and stock returns. Logit and fixed-effect panel data analyses are conducted on all firms listed in NYSE, Amex and NASDAQ in the announcement windows of two, three and four quarters before and after the tax reforms. The results show that the implementation of these tax reforms more persistently affects dividend payments than stock repurchases. It also has a boosting effect on stock returns in the Bush Tax Cut that is 75% greater than their reducing effect in the Obama Tax Increase, in absolute terms, controlling for dividend payment and stocks repurchase. These effects are robust to different market capitalization sizes. Less solvent firms persistently spend larger dollar amounts in stock repurchases, especially in the announcement of the Bush Tax Cut (+1.11% per solvency ratio percentage in the [-2Q, +2Q] window). Insolvency is more often significant and with positive impacts on stock returns in the Obama Tax Increase, suggesting that some investors decide to migrate to leveraged-high-growth firms once they realize that some dividend-paying firms could change their dividend policies.
This article analyzes the relationship between GDP growth in seven major Latin American countries... more This article analyzes the relationship between GDP growth in seven major Latin American countries and China's demand for their exports. GLS panel estimation using annual data for the period 1994-2013 shows that the relationship was both statistically and economically significant. Control variables found to be significant in positively affecting GDP growth include the investment-to-output ratio, the exchange rate, and the terms of trade, and, in negatively affecting it, population growth and the unemployment rate. Consistent with recent literature, foreign direct investment was found not to be significant. A sharp drop in exports to China for many of the countries in the sample in 2015 raises questions about the region's vulnerability to China's growth slowdown.
The North American Journal of Economics and Finance
We analyze the price effects of steel commodities on stock market returns in emerging and develop... more We analyze the price effects of steel commodities on stock market returns in emerging and developed economies. These commodities have recently attained increased media exposure due to the rise in the U.S. steel import tariffs, which pose the threat of reducing global demand for steel products and, consequently, lowering prices abroad. However, little has been investigated on the impact of steel commodity prices on worldwide stock market returns. By performing structural VAR and GARCH techniques on a weekly-frequency time series from 2002 to 2015, we find positive and statistically significant effects of linear and non-linear steel commodity price shocks on real stock returns in the commodity markets. In the highly diversified financial markets such as U.S. and Germany, real stock returns do not significantly respond to steel commodity price shocks, although we find highly significant positive responses from developed economies such as Australia, Japan and South Korea. Results are robust to different model specifications. Our evidence suggests that higher tariffs on steel imports represent a larger disadvantage to commodity markets which are more largely impacted by steel commodity prices. We provide economic policy implications based on recent literature.
The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 2021
Prior literature has documented that institutions which trade more frequently are better able to ... more Prior literature has documented that institutions which trade more frequently are better able to forecast future returns and have an informational advantage. This study examines a proximate explanation for the differences in performance based on institutions' investment horizon - short-term institutions are better informed because they are better able to identify overvalued stocks that are short-sale constrained and overvalued in the context of Miller's (1977) overvaluation hypothesis. Analysis is conducted on 6,330 unique firms from 1996 to 2014 using the calendar-time portfolio approach where abnormal returns are estimated from the Fama-French-Carhart four-factor regression model. The results provide evidence that stocks which are extremely overvalued due to short-sale constraints have the greatest decline in short-term institutional ownership, consistent with the notion that short-term institutions are able to correctly assess the components for stock overvaluation.
This paper investigates nonlinear relationships between terms of trade volatility (totvol) and ec... more This paper investigates nonlinear relationships between terms of trade volatility (totvol) and economic growth in 14 Latin American economies from 1997 to 2014. In the 2000s, Latin American countries experienced accelerated economic growth often attributed to commodity price booms. We split the sample into two regimes based on totvol thresholds determined by bootstrap techniques. Fixed-effects, instrumental variable and dynamic panel regressions address endogeneity in trade-growth, subject to traditional economic channels such as domestic investment, population growth, exchange rate, government size, and institutions. We find statistically significant thresholds and stronger trade-growth links during the 2000s commodity boom and in larger economies.
Using annual data from 1980 to 2014, we reexamine the relationship between democracy and natural ... more Using annual data from 1980 to 2014, we reexamine the relationship between democracy and natural resources for a large sample of emerging market economies. Controlling for human capital (or real GDP per capita) and openness measures, dynamic panel methods address endogeneity from more democratic regimes demanding better control of rents. We find that democracy responds positively to natural resource rents in GDP (NAT) and negatively to terms of trade (TOT). The NAT positive effects mitigate the negative impact of TOT on democracy and holds well in different specifications. By building on a literature focusing on oil rents, increases in NAT (extra revenue over production costs) represent a windfall for mining companies. This leads society to require higher levels of participation in decisions to exploit these rents more transparently. We also find that diversification of rents helps democracy, especially in economies with high shares of oil rents.
The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 2020
We analyze the price effects of steel commodities on stock market returns in emerging and develop... more We analyze the price effects of steel commodities on stock market returns in emerging and developed economies. These commodities have recently attained increased media exposure due to the rise in the U.S. steel import tariffs, which pose the threat of reducing global demand for steel products and, consequently, lowering prices abroad. However, little has been investigated on the impact of steel commodity prices on worldwide stock market returns. By performing structural VAR and GARCH techniques on a weekly-frequency time series from 2002 to 2015, we find positive and statistically significant effects of linear and non-linear steel commodity price shocks on real stock returns in the commodity markets. In the highly diversified financial markets such as U.S. and Germany, real stock returns do not significantly respond to steel commodity price shocks, although we find highly significant positive responses from developed economies such as Australia, Japan and South Korea. Results are robust to different model specifications. Our evidence suggests that higher tariffs on steel imports represent a larger disadvantage to commodity markets which are more largely impacted by steel commodity prices. We provide economic policy implications based on recent literature.
Does government size increase to compensate for the volatility that arises from openness? We eval... more Does government size increase to compensate for the volatility that arises from openness? We evaluate this compensation hypothesis by focusing on Latin America, whose economic growth in the 2000s has been often attributed to the commodity boom. Panel data regressions show that during the 2003-2010 commodity boom terms of trade volatility has positive effects on government size compared to the earlier 1990-2002 period. This key finding supports the compensation hypothesis, a result robust to dynamic panels allowing for reverse causation from government size to the real economy. Policy implications include diversification of the production structure and strengthening of regulatory framework.
This article examines economic development from 1996 to 2015 for 192 countries and specifically L... more This article examines economic development from 1996 to 2015 for 192 countries and specifically Latin America. Evidence shows that each 0.1-point increase in institutions impacts a 3.9% improvement in Latin American per capita output versus a 2.6% effect on world development. This new evidence from Latin America shows a missing opportunity to develop at higher annual pace than the 2.14% average, mainly due to the deterioration in rule of law. We conjecture the efficiency of monetary/fiscal policies will improve if policymakers emphasize projects that foster improvements to institutional quality, such as transparency, public spending quality and fiscal responsibility.
This paper analyzes the effects of foreign banks on developing countries' bank performance. We st... more This paper analyzes the effects of foreign banks on developing countries' bank performance. We study this relationship from a different perspective by focusing on Chile, an emerging market with strong institutions. The results from dynamic panel regressions on hand-collected financial statement data from 2005 to 2014 indicate that foreign banks improve banking sector competitiveness, reduce the volatility of returns, and increase commercial and consumption loans. The overall evidence suggests that, in the presence of solid institutions, foreign banks improve the banking sector in developing countries. Therefore, public policies on foreign banks should be more effective when accompanied by advances in institutions.
This article analyzes the relationship between GDP growth in seven major Latin American countries... more This article analyzes the relationship between GDP growth in seven major Latin American countries and China's demand for their exports. GLS panel estimation using annual data for the period 1994-2013 shows that the relationship was both statistically and economically significant. Control variables found to be significant in positively affecting GDP growth include the investment-to-output ratio, the exchange rate, and the terms of trade, and, in negatively affecting it, population growth and the unemployment rate. Consistent with recent literature, foreign direct investment was found not to be significant. A sharp drop in exports to China for many of the countries in the sample in 2015 raises questions about the region's vulnerability to China's growth slowdown.
This paper examines the effect of country-specific investor attention on ADR mispricing. Investor... more This paper examines the effect of country-specific investor attention on ADR mispricing. Investor attention is measured by the amount of traffic a country's Wikipedia profile page receives. A twostage least squares (2SLS) regression is employed to examine the relationship between investor attention and ADR mispricing, but also to mitigate endogeneity between the two variables of interest. We use the FIFA World Ranking (country soccer ranking) and the number of UNESCO heritage sites as instruments for investor attention, given the unlikelihood that either of those variables can be caused by ADR mispricing. Our results show that lower levels of investor attention lead to higher ADR mispricing, therefore leading to greater divergence of the law of one price for the sample of ADRs. The results are robust across various model specifications and to well-known determinants of mispricing such as turnover, stock prices, exchange rates, and market capitalisation.
This paper examines the effect of country-specific investor attention on ADR mispricing. Investor... more This paper examines the effect of country-specific investor attention on ADR mispricing. Investor attention is measured by the amount of traffic a country's Wikipedia profile page receives. A twostage least squares (2SLS) regression is employed to examine the relationship between investor attention and ADR mispricing, but also to mitigate endogeneity between the two variables of interest. We use the FIFA World Ranking (country soccer ranking) and the number of UNESCO heritage sites as instruments for investor attention, given the unlikelihood that either of those variables can be caused by ADR mispricing. Our results show that lower levels of investor attention lead to higher ADR mispricing, therefore leading to greater divergence of the law of one price for the sample of ADRs. The results are robust across various model specifications and to well-known determinants of mispricing such as turnover, stock prices, exchange rates, and market capitalisation.
This study investigates the ability for option markets to mitigate short-sale constraints using t... more This study investigates the ability for option markets to mitigate short-sale constraints using the natural experiment of the short-sale ban in 2008. Following the SEC's amendment prior to the second trading day of the ban that clarifies that market makers are exempt from the short sale ban, there was a significant increase in relative put option volume during the remaining 13 days of the ban. Employing the framework of Miller's (1977) overvaluation hypothesis, the results suggest that put option trades reduce overpricing to the greatest extent when short-sale constraints are effectively binding and dispersion of investor opinion is large. Together, these results provide evidence that option trades act as substitutes for short selling.
Governments implemented fiscal stimulus packages to alleviate the global financial crisis of 2007... more Governments implemented fiscal stimulus packages to alleviate the global financial crisis of 2007-2009. Using annual data from 1996 to 2019, we investigate economic growth in a large sample of countries for pre-and post-Global Financial Crisis years. Our approach analyzes the interaction between institutional quality and government size (government expenditures as share of GDP), reinforced by threshold estimations. We document that economies react to government size depending on the quality of the institutions in question. First, fixed effects models indicate higher institutional quality has positive effects on growth, while government size-and its interactions with institutional quality-has negative effects. Second, the coefficients of government size on economic growth are negative with higher institutional quality and become larger in the post-Global Financial Crisis years. These combined results indicate that higher-quality institutions make economies less tolerant of rising government expenditures than lower-quality institutions. Our main findings support institutional quality as the channel through which fiscal policy has real effects. The evidence herein is robust to measures of institutional quality from different databases.
This master’s thesis aims to apply the well-established gravity equation in international trade t... more This master’s thesis aims to apply the well-established gravity equation in international trade to the Brazilian economy, in the period from 1993 to 2011. In the first empirical experiment, data were collected for 106 countries, which represent 94.4% of the Brazilian trade flow in 2011. The applicability of the gravity equation to the Brazilian case was confirmed, and the most explanatory binary variables were Mercosul, Asian Tigers, and the English and French languages, these last two being negative correlated to the Brazilian total trade. It was also possible to discard the national border relevance (McCallum’s Border Puzzle) as a barrier to the Brazilian trade flow. In the second experiment, an exchange rate, which embeds purchasing power variations, was collected for a total of 32 countries. This variable was proved significant in simulations by two of the three econometric methods tested. Most past researchers have intended to improve and test the theoretical foundations of this equation, although practically leaving out the single country case uninvestigated. Finally, it is worth emphasizing that the results of the first experiment showed that it is possible to reach an empirical model that optimizes the explanatory power of the Brazilian trade flow equation, using a reduced number of explanatory dummy variables.
Abstract Prior literature has documented that institutions which trade more frequently are better... more Abstract Prior literature has documented that institutions which trade more frequently are better able to forecast future returns and have an informational advantage. This study examines a proximate explanation for the differences in performance based on institutions’ investment horizon – short-term institutions are better informed because they are better able to identify overvalued stocks that are short-sale constrained and overvalued in the context of Miller’s (1977) overvaluation hypothesis. Analysis is conducted on 6,330 unique firms from 1996 to 2014 using the calendar-time portfolio approach where abnormal returns are estimated from the Fama-French-Carhart four-factor regression model. The results provide evidence that stocks which are extremely overvalued due to short-sale constraints have the greatest decline in short-term institutional ownership, consistent with the notion that short-term institutions are able to correctly assess the components for stock overvaluation.
Does government size increase to compensate for the volatility that arises from openness? We eval... more Does government size increase to compensate for the volatility that arises from openness? We evaluate this compensation hypothesis by focusing on Latin America, whose economic growth in the 2000s has been often attributed to the commodity boom. Panel data regressions show that during the 2003-2010 commodity boom terms of trade volatility has positive effects on government size compared to the earlier 1990-2002 period. This key finding supports the compensation hypothesis, a result robust to dynamic panels allowing for reverse causation from government size to the real economy. Policy implications include diversification of the production structure and strengthening of regulatory framework.
This article analyzes the effects of the American Taxpayer Relief Act of 2012 (Obama Tax Increase... more This article analyzes the effects of the American Taxpayer Relief Act of 2012 (Obama Tax Increase) and the Jobs and Growth Tax Relief Reconciliation Act of 2003 (Bush Tax Cut) on corporate payout decision and stock returns. Logit and fixed-effect panel data analyses are conducted on all firms listed in NYSE, Amex and NASDAQ in the announcement windows of two, three and four quarters before and after the tax reforms. The results show that the implementation of these tax reforms more persistently affects dividend payments than stock repurchases. It also has a boosting effect on stock returns in the Bush Tax Cut that is 75% greater than their reducing effect in the Obama Tax Increase, in absolute terms, controlling for dividend payment and stocks repurchase. These effects are robust to different market capitalization sizes. Less solvent firms persistently spend larger dollar amounts in stock repurchases, especially in the announcement of the Bush Tax Cut (+1.11% per solvency ratio percentage in the [-2Q, +2Q] window). Insolvency is more often significant and with positive impacts on stock returns in the Obama Tax Increase, suggesting that some investors decide to migrate to leveraged-high-growth firms once they realize that some dividend-paying firms could change their dividend policies.
This article analyzes the relationship between GDP growth in seven major Latin American countries... more This article analyzes the relationship between GDP growth in seven major Latin American countries and China's demand for their exports. GLS panel estimation using annual data for the period 1994-2013 shows that the relationship was both statistically and economically significant. Control variables found to be significant in positively affecting GDP growth include the investment-to-output ratio, the exchange rate, and the terms of trade, and, in negatively affecting it, population growth and the unemployment rate. Consistent with recent literature, foreign direct investment was found not to be significant. A sharp drop in exports to China for many of the countries in the sample in 2015 raises questions about the region's vulnerability to China's growth slowdown.
The North American Journal of Economics and Finance
We analyze the price effects of steel commodities on stock market returns in emerging and develop... more We analyze the price effects of steel commodities on stock market returns in emerging and developed economies. These commodities have recently attained increased media exposure due to the rise in the U.S. steel import tariffs, which pose the threat of reducing global demand for steel products and, consequently, lowering prices abroad. However, little has been investigated on the impact of steel commodity prices on worldwide stock market returns. By performing structural VAR and GARCH techniques on a weekly-frequency time series from 2002 to 2015, we find positive and statistically significant effects of linear and non-linear steel commodity price shocks on real stock returns in the commodity markets. In the highly diversified financial markets such as U.S. and Germany, real stock returns do not significantly respond to steel commodity price shocks, although we find highly significant positive responses from developed economies such as Australia, Japan and South Korea. Results are robust to different model specifications. Our evidence suggests that higher tariffs on steel imports represent a larger disadvantage to commodity markets which are more largely impacted by steel commodity prices. We provide economic policy implications based on recent literature.
The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 2021
Prior literature has documented that institutions which trade more frequently are better able to ... more Prior literature has documented that institutions which trade more frequently are better able to forecast future returns and have an informational advantage. This study examines a proximate explanation for the differences in performance based on institutions' investment horizon - short-term institutions are better informed because they are better able to identify overvalued stocks that are short-sale constrained and overvalued in the context of Miller's (1977) overvaluation hypothesis. Analysis is conducted on 6,330 unique firms from 1996 to 2014 using the calendar-time portfolio approach where abnormal returns are estimated from the Fama-French-Carhart four-factor regression model. The results provide evidence that stocks which are extremely overvalued due to short-sale constraints have the greatest decline in short-term institutional ownership, consistent with the notion that short-term institutions are able to correctly assess the components for stock overvaluation.
This paper investigates nonlinear relationships between terms of trade volatility (totvol) and ec... more This paper investigates nonlinear relationships between terms of trade volatility (totvol) and economic growth in 14 Latin American economies from 1997 to 2014. In the 2000s, Latin American countries experienced accelerated economic growth often attributed to commodity price booms. We split the sample into two regimes based on totvol thresholds determined by bootstrap techniques. Fixed-effects, instrumental variable and dynamic panel regressions address endogeneity in trade-growth, subject to traditional economic channels such as domestic investment, population growth, exchange rate, government size, and institutions. We find statistically significant thresholds and stronger trade-growth links during the 2000s commodity boom and in larger economies.
Using annual data from 1980 to 2014, we reexamine the relationship between democracy and natural ... more Using annual data from 1980 to 2014, we reexamine the relationship between democracy and natural resources for a large sample of emerging market economies. Controlling for human capital (or real GDP per capita) and openness measures, dynamic panel methods address endogeneity from more democratic regimes demanding better control of rents. We find that democracy responds positively to natural resource rents in GDP (NAT) and negatively to terms of trade (TOT). The NAT positive effects mitigate the negative impact of TOT on democracy and holds well in different specifications. By building on a literature focusing on oil rents, increases in NAT (extra revenue over production costs) represent a windfall for mining companies. This leads society to require higher levels of participation in decisions to exploit these rents more transparently. We also find that diversification of rents helps democracy, especially in economies with high shares of oil rents.
The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 2020
We analyze the price effects of steel commodities on stock market returns in emerging and develop... more We analyze the price effects of steel commodities on stock market returns in emerging and developed economies. These commodities have recently attained increased media exposure due to the rise in the U.S. steel import tariffs, which pose the threat of reducing global demand for steel products and, consequently, lowering prices abroad. However, little has been investigated on the impact of steel commodity prices on worldwide stock market returns. By performing structural VAR and GARCH techniques on a weekly-frequency time series from 2002 to 2015, we find positive and statistically significant effects of linear and non-linear steel commodity price shocks on real stock returns in the commodity markets. In the highly diversified financial markets such as U.S. and Germany, real stock returns do not significantly respond to steel commodity price shocks, although we find highly significant positive responses from developed economies such as Australia, Japan and South Korea. Results are robust to different model specifications. Our evidence suggests that higher tariffs on steel imports represent a larger disadvantage to commodity markets which are more largely impacted by steel commodity prices. We provide economic policy implications based on recent literature.
Does government size increase to compensate for the volatility that arises from openness? We eval... more Does government size increase to compensate for the volatility that arises from openness? We evaluate this compensation hypothesis by focusing on Latin America, whose economic growth in the 2000s has been often attributed to the commodity boom. Panel data regressions show that during the 2003-2010 commodity boom terms of trade volatility has positive effects on government size compared to the earlier 1990-2002 period. This key finding supports the compensation hypothesis, a result robust to dynamic panels allowing for reverse causation from government size to the real economy. Policy implications include diversification of the production structure and strengthening of regulatory framework.
This article examines economic development from 1996 to 2015 for 192 countries and specifically L... more This article examines economic development from 1996 to 2015 for 192 countries and specifically Latin America. Evidence shows that each 0.1-point increase in institutions impacts a 3.9% improvement in Latin American per capita output versus a 2.6% effect on world development. This new evidence from Latin America shows a missing opportunity to develop at higher annual pace than the 2.14% average, mainly due to the deterioration in rule of law. We conjecture the efficiency of monetary/fiscal policies will improve if policymakers emphasize projects that foster improvements to institutional quality, such as transparency, public spending quality and fiscal responsibility.
This paper analyzes the effects of foreign banks on developing countries' bank performance. We st... more This paper analyzes the effects of foreign banks on developing countries' bank performance. We study this relationship from a different perspective by focusing on Chile, an emerging market with strong institutions. The results from dynamic panel regressions on hand-collected financial statement data from 2005 to 2014 indicate that foreign banks improve banking sector competitiveness, reduce the volatility of returns, and increase commercial and consumption loans. The overall evidence suggests that, in the presence of solid institutions, foreign banks improve the banking sector in developing countries. Therefore, public policies on foreign banks should be more effective when accompanied by advances in institutions.
This article analyzes the relationship between GDP growth in seven major Latin American countries... more This article analyzes the relationship between GDP growth in seven major Latin American countries and China's demand for their exports. GLS panel estimation using annual data for the period 1994-2013 shows that the relationship was both statistically and economically significant. Control variables found to be significant in positively affecting GDP growth include the investment-to-output ratio, the exchange rate, and the terms of trade, and, in negatively affecting it, population growth and the unemployment rate. Consistent with recent literature, foreign direct investment was found not to be significant. A sharp drop in exports to China for many of the countries in the sample in 2015 raises questions about the region's vulnerability to China's growth slowdown.
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Papers by Andre C Vianna