Papers by Sofie Bedford
Baku Research Institute , 2023
Caucasus Analytical Digest, 2023
Societal development in Azerbaijan has been strongly affected by the war since its independence. ... more Societal development in Azerbaijan has been strongly affected by the war since its independence. Such an impact can be seen in two major ways. First, the liberation of the occupied areas became the overarch- ing vision for both political leaders and society and, essentially, one of the pillars of post-Soviet Azerbaijani national identity. Second, this gradually resulted in a militarization of state and society which strengthened the hegemony of the authoritarian regime. Azerbaijan’s recent victory further enhanced the popularity of president Ilham Aliyev and, in this sense, lowered incentives for democratization within society. Both of these factors have contributed to a situation where a reconciliation process seems far away. Even after terri- torial integrity was largely restored in 2020, the notion of ‘us’ vs. ‘them’ is still deeply rooted in the nation’s self-image and reinforced by the official narrative. Society is not ready to reconcile with Armenia, both due to the lingering trauma and the lack of any reconciliation mechanisms.
Baltic Worlds, Jun 16, 2020
Baltic Worlds, Sep 7, 2020
Baltic Worlds, Apr 12, 2018
Baltic Worlds 9 (3) 2016, Oct 2016
On September 11 Belarus held parliamentary elections for the sixth time since 1991. Few had doubt... more On September 11 Belarus held parliamentary elections for the sixth time since 1991. Few had doubts about election results announced the next day: as usual deputies loyal to President Aliaksandr Lukashenka gained most seats in the lower house. Yet the 2016 election was different from all other recent elections. Hanna Kanapatskaya of the United Civil Party (UPC) and Alena Anisim, a member of the Belarusian Language Society, both women and both seen as representing the 'opposition' won seats in the parliament. This news, although much anticipated, has been followed by a feisty discussion -not seldom of conspiratorial character -especially among oppositional actors. Why were these women (s)elected for seats in the parliament? Will their presence actually change something? Most seem to agree the results were orchestrated by Belarusian authorities to appease the West and show some goodwill. Indeed, lifting sanctions against Belarus last year marked a sea change in EU approach to Lukashenka who has come to play 'the lesser evil' ever since the Ukraine war erupted. 1 This hints to the fact no matter how uninteresting the results of this type of predetermined elections are they still can tell us something. While focusing on who won and who lost does not bring much new to the table questions like what function does a pre-determined election have and what do the election results mean for democratic opposition can help us better understand the mechanisms behind so called electoral authoritarianism in general and the situation in Belarus in particular. Pre-determined election: everybody knows who will win (and most do not care) Merely in a superficial way, Belarus election does not appear outrageous to the eye of populace. Parliamentary elections are held every four years.
Elections pose a dilemma for the democratic opposition in electoral authoritarian states. On the ... more Elections pose a dilemma for the democratic opposition in electoral authoritarian states. On the one hand,
the election campaign is often their only opportunity to get sanctioned access to the public, on the other,
through their participation in an election where the outcome is known beforehand they appear to support
a democratic charade. This article focuses on the ways in which oppositional actors in Azerbaijan choose
to tackle this predicament in relation to the recent parliamentary elections. The analysis and comparison of
respective electoral strategies (boycott, campaigning, statements and monitoring) tell us about the roles elections,
despite their predictable outcome, play in this type of context. Even though no one in the opposition
is ‘in it to win it’ the Republican Alternative (REAL) movement stands out. Fully aware of their marginalization
in society, as representatives of an extremely unpopular ‘opposition’, their electoral work focused on
selling themselves to the public as ‘something new,’ which is, of course, easier said than done. Nevertheless,
their approach and campaign could be interpreted as an attempt to actually convert this into practice.
Utan röst och status – de facto-stater i världen. Stockholm: Utrikespolitiska Institutet. , Dec 6, 2013
Baltic Worlds, Oct 24, 2013
Caucasus Analythical Digest 44, 20 November 2012
This issue of the CAD analyzes the role of Islam in Azerbaijan. The first article provides a hist... more This issue of the CAD analyzes the role of Islam in Azerbaijan. The first article provides a historical overview of the development of Islam, from its appearance through the end of the Soviet period. The second article examines the Azerbaijanis' perception of themselves as tolerant Muslims in an effort to win support from the West and boost Azerbaijan's standing on the international stage. The final article explains how some mosque communities function as a political opposition in the authoritarian Azerbaijani context.
Innovative Marketing, Volume 7, Issue 1, 2011, Jan 1, 2011
Baltic Worlds, Oct 20, 2010
L’Azerbaïdjan. Au centre dénjeux globaux, EurOrient 28, Jan 1, 2008
Having over the years failed to deliver any substantial results, the Azerbaijani political opposi... more Having over the years failed to deliver any substantial results, the Azerbaijani political opposition is by many observers considered to have lost the support of the general public. Furthermore, the decay of the secular opposition after the last election (2005) has caused observers to speculate on the risk of radical political Islam becoming the preferred alternative in Azerbaijan. However, most of the religious mobilization it is already possible to witness in Azerbaijan has very little to do with what we understand as ‘political Islam’ in for example a Middle Eastern context. Rather, these groups have a lot in common with other, not necessarily religious, social movements aiming to change various aspects of societal life.
FOI (Totalförsvarets Forskningsinstitut) Rapport, Nov 1, 2005
English summary: This report is the result of an evaluation of the Swedish troop contribution to ... more English summary: This report is the result of an evaluation of the Swedish troop contribution to PRT (Provincial Reconstruction Team)in Mazar-e-Sharif, Afghanistan.The purpose of the report is twofold. The first purpose is to describe the British led PRT Mazar-e-Sharif focusing on the Swedish contribution. In accordance to this, recommendations will be presented spotlighting the Swedish part of the contribution.The second purpose is to conclude if there is room for improvements ahead of the Swedish takeover of the PRT Mazar-e-Sharif. The results are in particular aimed for decision makers within the Swedish government and for those responsible for planning procedures within the Swedish Defence, but the report is also written in a way that invites other readers interested in the subject.
Peer-Reviewed Articles by Sofie Bedford
Baltic Worlds , 2023
Using Heydemann’s concept ‘authoritarian upgrading’ as the theoretical point of departure, this a... more Using Heydemann’s concept ‘authoritarian upgrading’ as the theoretical point of departure, this article sheds light on the adaptation of the Azerbaijani authoritarian regime that is taking place in the political arena, civil society, media and information sector, and in relation to religious practices. It elaborates on how authoritarian upgrading is associated with the consolidation of the authoritarian regime and suggests that the core of these measures entails making authoritarian norms and values appear more attractive and acceptable. Notably, it illustrates the conscious attempts to engage the younger generation across multiple sectors in authoritarian upgrading making them both a target and a tool in this process.
Nationalities Papers, 2021
On August 9, 2020, presidential elections were held in Belarus. Despite blatant electoral fraud a... more On August 9, 2020, presidential elections were held in Belarus. Despite blatant electoral fraud and procedural violations, the official results declared Aleksandr Lukashenka reelected for a sixth term. While in the past, even the most obviously fraudulent election results have been followed by an atmosphere of resigned acceptance, this time countless Belarusians took to the streets to contest the results. What made this election different? This analysis of current affairs looks at the 2020 events through the lens of authoritarian consolidation theory, suggesting the unprecedented political mobilization was enabled by erosion in the three pillars of authoritarian stability: repression, cooptation, and legitimation. A majority of the population had been accepting the political status quo out of fear, for social and monetary security provided in exchange for loyalty, or a general understanding that there were no alternatives. Lukashenka did not realize this had largely changed. Nine months later, the foundation of the authoritarian regime is in an even worse shape. The regime's reliance on repression further counteracts the legitimacy of the system. As a result, it seems it will be difficult for the authorities to re-consolidate authoritarianism, at least in the near future, no matter how the 'revolution' unfolds.
Nordisk Østforum, 2021
Up until 2020 Aleksandr Lukashenka’s authoritarian regime had ruled Belarus for 26 years without ... more Up until 2020 Aleksandr Lukashenka’s authoritarian regime had ruled Belarus for 26 years without major challenges. Thus, the popular mobilization that took shape in connection with the August 2020 presidential election came as a surprise. It was not the first time that elections in Belarus were not fair – but it was the first time that large sectors of the population reacted openly. Six months later, Belarusians all over the country were still contesting the falsified results. What contributed to this mobilization and politicization of a previously largely apolitical society? Why does that development represent such a serious threat to the authoritarian system? This study sees the Belarusian presidential election and its aftermath as illustrating the ‘politics of uncertainty’ of electoral authoritarian regimes. Because of the intrinsic insecurity of authoritarian systems, all regular elections in that context entail risks, which in theory might lead to change. In Belarus, the emergence of latent threats to the regime’s legitimacy in the form of social cleavages and an economic crisis, combined with the fundamental dynamics of the ‘election game’, amplified this instability. The election served as the starting point for a process of transformation that became the most serious threat ever faced by the Lukashenka regime.
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Papers by Sofie Bedford
the election campaign is often their only opportunity to get sanctioned access to the public, on the other,
through their participation in an election where the outcome is known beforehand they appear to support
a democratic charade. This article focuses on the ways in which oppositional actors in Azerbaijan choose
to tackle this predicament in relation to the recent parliamentary elections. The analysis and comparison of
respective electoral strategies (boycott, campaigning, statements and monitoring) tell us about the roles elections,
despite their predictable outcome, play in this type of context. Even though no one in the opposition
is ‘in it to win it’ the Republican Alternative (REAL) movement stands out. Fully aware of their marginalization
in society, as representatives of an extremely unpopular ‘opposition’, their electoral work focused on
selling themselves to the public as ‘something new,’ which is, of course, easier said than done. Nevertheless,
their approach and campaign could be interpreted as an attempt to actually convert this into practice.
Peer-Reviewed Articles by Sofie Bedford
the election campaign is often their only opportunity to get sanctioned access to the public, on the other,
through their participation in an election where the outcome is known beforehand they appear to support
a democratic charade. This article focuses on the ways in which oppositional actors in Azerbaijan choose
to tackle this predicament in relation to the recent parliamentary elections. The analysis and comparison of
respective electoral strategies (boycott, campaigning, statements and monitoring) tell us about the roles elections,
despite their predictable outcome, play in this type of context. Even though no one in the opposition
is ‘in it to win it’ the Republican Alternative (REAL) movement stands out. Fully aware of their marginalization
in society, as representatives of an extremely unpopular ‘opposition’, their electoral work focused on
selling themselves to the public as ‘something new,’ which is, of course, easier said than done. Nevertheless,
their approach and campaign could be interpreted as an attempt to actually convert this into practice.
non-political, non-sectarian and national features to prevent ‘non-traditional’ religious variants from gaining popular traction. The phenomenon has not appeared in a vacuum. First, its features and functions stem from Soviet-era anti-religious and nationalities policies. Second, many aspects of TI resemble counter-radicalisation initiatives worldwide. Finally, while introduced as a means of blocking radicalisation in order to protect Azerbaijan’s national identity as a secular state, Traditional Islam in fact works to extend state control over the religious domain and thus to prevent the development of any
religiously grounded dissent against the authoritarian regime.
Soviet context.
sake of elections” can contribute to the consolidation of an authoritarian regime. It analyzes how Belarusian authorities’ “menu of manipulation” shaped both the discourse and “practice” of “politics” in favor of the
current system. Using selective repression – targeting mainly those openly wanting to change the status quo, while allowing some controlled openness for individuals, as long as they refrain from “doing politics”
– discouraged political activism and contributed to a negative perception of the “opposition” as a noisy sub-group of the population. Such developments reinforced a perception of organized politics in general,
and elections in particular, as abstract, unattractive and irrelevant to most.
The next summarizes the election, stressing its purpose for the opposition. The third part analyses whether and how the election contributed to strengthening the authoritarian
regime. The study concludes that developments during and after the election year are an illustration of what in previous research is sometimes referred to as the politics of insecurity. Even though the opposition “lost”, the relative success of their
campaign indicated that change might, after all, be possible. The regime, depending on regular multi-party elections for its democratic alibi, did not appreciate the uncertainty and tried to minimize it by using the “three pillars” on which authoritarian states’ stability can be said to rest: legitimacy, repression and cooptation.
verbreitet. In Aserbaidschan dominiert die von der iranischen Safawiden-Dynastie verbreitete Zwölfer-Schia, und der Islam ist – wie auch im Nordwestkaukasus – weitgehend auf den Bereich der Spiritualität beschränkt. Doch auch dort stellen Salafisten die Autorität des offiziellen Islam in Frage.