Volume 8, Issue 8, pp. 68-73, 2024, ISSN (ONLINE): 2456-7361, 2024
The rapidly changing environmental, economic and demographic context of the globe impacted urban ... more The rapidly changing environmental, economic and demographic context of the globe impacted urban planning processes worldwide and made traditional comprehensive planning practices incapable of handling future uncertainties. Popper 2008's argument about the inability to predict the future, and the need to suggest actions for steering future urban development to deal with uncertainties, required a new approach to urban planning, urban foresight. The pedagogical shifts for urban planning from aesthetical and conceptual visions to negotiation and stakeholder participation till we reached system thinking and anticipation, created a base for urban foresight that is fused with multiple futures and sustainability (Roggema, 2016). UK foresight research is discussed as an example of government efforts to deal with the changing world uncertain conditions that is already more than 29 years since its first published report. UK city foresight is a good example of non-traditional approach to planning that uses both qualitative and quantitative methods. This article discusses three urban foresight examples from Mumbai, Singapore and Tokyo before it ends with an epilogue on urban foresight guidelines and main characteristics. I.
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Papers by Ahmed Ouf
environmental, demographic, and physical contexts stabilize. Planning as an evidence-based discipline suffers from data fluidity after any
unexpected contextual change making the comprehensive planning model unfit to the many uncertainties. The short-term objective for postdisaster is to save lives and restore basic community functions, it requires a segmented decision-making process that uses fragmented data, and
not necessarily involving all the stakeholders because of the time limitations. The first response stage to uncertain contextual occurrences,
especially in post disaster conditions, is at best incremental and short-term. To the contrary of that, long-term comprehensive plans require a
unified decision-making process involving all the stakeholders based on better data availability after the initial fast thinking stage. This paper’s
enquiry is about the appropriate planning processes for post-disaster contexts, with the goal of exploring the planning concepts, processes, and
data needs in uncertain planning conditions. Post-disaster planning visions will be explored so that they are not limited to recovery or bounce
back to the old plans, but rather consider new future visions to accommodate the changing contextual conditions. The paper discusses scenario
planning, incremental planning, muddling through and similar planning concepts for visionary futures. It discusses the creation of theoretical
frameworks for innovative community engagement in urban planning. The paper concludes with recommendations on planning for uncertainties
that consider the city as a nested system, where each system has its own objectives and processes for being resilient.
environmental, demographic, and physical contexts stabilize. Planning as an evidence-based discipline suffers from data fluidity after any
unexpected contextual change making the comprehensive planning model unfit to the many uncertainties. The short-term objective for postdisaster is to save lives and restore basic community functions, it requires a segmented decision-making process that uses fragmented data, and
not necessarily involving all the stakeholders because of the time limitations. The first response stage to uncertain contextual occurrences,
especially in post disaster conditions, is at best incremental and short-term. To the contrary of that, long-term comprehensive plans require a
unified decision-making process involving all the stakeholders based on better data availability after the initial fast thinking stage. This paper’s
enquiry is about the appropriate planning processes for post-disaster contexts, with the goal of exploring the planning concepts, processes, and
data needs in uncertain planning conditions. Post-disaster planning visions will be explored so that they are not limited to recovery or bounce
back to the old plans, but rather consider new future visions to accommodate the changing contextual conditions. The paper discusses scenario
planning, incremental planning, muddling through and similar planning concepts for visionary futures. It discusses the creation of theoretical
frameworks for innovative community engagement in urban planning. The paper concludes with recommendations on planning for uncertainties
that consider the city as a nested system, where each system has its own objectives and processes for being resilient.