Papers by christian Henning
Advances in African Economic, Social and Political Development, 2017
A paradox of low political performance exists in many countries (i.e., suboptimal policies persis... more A paradox of low political performance exists in many countries (i.e., suboptimal policies persist despite the existence of specific policy instruments that could generate more desirable outcomes). For example, many developing countries that continue to depend largely on agriculture, particularly countries in Sub-Saharan Africa, underinvest in this sector. Especially in areas of public investment that have high returns in terms of growth and poverty reduction, such as agricultural research and extension, public investments remain below the optimal level (Fan and Rao 2003). Accordingly, in addition to an understanding of socioeconomic responses to new policies, avoiding suboptimal agricultural policy choices requires an understanding of the underlying political processes. An improved understanding of the policy process, including the relevant political institutions and their link with the overall political economy, is essential to determining how the participation of stakeholder groups and the use of credible scientific evidence can be promoted in the design and implementation of efficient, pro-poor agricultural strategies. Filling this gap can help identify practical solutions and tools for reducing political performance gaps and facilitate the implementation of improved policies for reducing poverty and promoting growth. However, policy processes are complex and dynamic by nature; these processes involve multiple actors (i.e., individuals and organizations) and are defined by national political, social, cultural and institutional realities (e.g., constitutional rules), bureaucratic structures and capacities, and the informal participation of stakeholder organizations. Few studies have explicitly mapped these processes to
Greenhouse gas emissions could be mitigated to a large extend and at low costs by high groundwate... more Greenhouse gas emissions could be mitigated to a large extend and at low costs by high groundwater tables in fen areas. Pars pro toto this is demonstrated via simulation analyses using the Eider-Treene-Niederung as an empirical example located in the state of Schleswig-Holstein in North Germany. In particular, two scenarios of an extensified land management of fen areas, i.e. raising groundwater by 10 cm and 20 cm, respectively, are simulated implying average adaption costs ranging from 12 €/t CO 2 -eq/year for the 10 cm scenario to 17 €/t CO 2 -eq/year for the 20 cm scenario. Mitigation costs, however, vary significantly across farm types, ranging from 112 to 359 €/ha/year, where especially for dairy farms high costs are found. Since mitigation costs mainly result from changed land use these are significantly determined by assumed milk prices, where capitalization of annual costs imply land value losses ranging from 2240 € to 7018 € per ha. Assuming induced mitigation costs would b...
Apart from the computational time and expenses of the CGE model, the discussion of elasticity par... more Apart from the computational time and expenses of the CGE model, the discussion of elasticity parameter estimation and various closure rules as well as the difficulty of combining the results with other analysis approaches always poses obstacles ahead of us, therefore we are motivated to apply the Bayesian model selection method and the meta-modeling technique in order to tackle these problems from a new perspective in the framework of the Senegal-CGE model and even compare the CGE models. The meta-modeling technique can be deemed as an intermediate step towards the application of Bayesian model selection method because the CGE models cannot be directly integrated into the method. The meta-modeling technique, whose three essential components are the simulation models, the meta-models and the design of experimetns, aims at generating valid and simplified approximation models of the simulation models and gives us the opportunity of combining the CGE models with the Bayesian model sele...
Computational Economics, 2022
Baseline assumptions play a crucial role in conducting consistent quantitative policy assessments... more Baseline assumptions play a crucial role in conducting consistent quantitative policy assessments for dynamic Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) models. Two essential factors that influence the determination of the baselines are the data sources of projections and the applied calibration methods. We propose a general, Bayesian approach that can be employed to build a baseline for any recursive-dynamic CGE model. We use metamodeling techniques to transform the calibration problem into a tractable optimization problem while simultaneously reducing the computational costs. This transformation allows us to derive the exogenous model parameters that are needed to match the projections. We demonstrate how to apply the approach using a simple CGE and supply the full code. Additionally, we apply our method to a multi-region, multi-sector model and show that calibrated parameters matter as policy implications derived from simulations differ significantly between them.
Research Papers in Economics, 2020
is a research assistant at the institute of agricultural economics, university of Kiel, Germany. ... more is a research assistant at the institute of agricultural economics, university of Kiel, Germany. Her doctoral thesis focuses on linkages between climate change, economic development, and civil conflict in two regions of the developing world (Sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East and North Africa). Christian Henning is professor and chair of agricultural economics, university of Kiel, Germany.
Research Papers in Economics, 2020
The recent renaissance of the Senegalese cooperative movement coupled with the revival of the agr... more The recent renaissance of the Senegalese cooperative movement coupled with the revival of the agricultural sector motivated this study, which mainly aims to analyse the impact of farmer-based organization membership on household land productivity and net income. We combined the Propensity Score Matching (PSM) method with an Endogenous Switching Regression (ESR) model to derive treatment effects of membership in these farmer organizations using a national household-level survey data. Results exhibit consistency across estimations techniques. Estimates of both ESR and PSM models showed that membership in farmer organizations affects positively and significantly the household land productivity and net income. Moreover, findings show that membership has a heterogeneous impact. Households with the lowest probability to be member of farmer organizations have the highest impact. The effect of membership depends also on the specific type of organization.
Combining the new consumer theory of Becker with a network model of belief formation developed in... more Combining the new consumer theory of Becker with a network model of belief formation developed in sociology we derive a theory of peer group influence on households' consumer beliefs regarding the impact of health related attributes on households utility and hence on households' willingness to pay for functional food. In particular, our theory implies peer group effects on households' preferences for functional food, while following the famous De-Gustibus-Non-Est-Disputandum paradigm of Bekcer and Stigler our theory implies no peer group effects on households z-good preferences, e.g. WTP for health, taste or convenience as nutrition related z-goods. Using own unique social and medical survey data of 2000 probands, the KIK-panel (Kieler- Interventions-Kohorte), collected within the Focus-project in Germany during the years 2012 and 2013 we test our theory applying a two-stage latent class estimation of macro and micro food preferences. In particular, the approach allows a...
The paper presents a political economy analysis of the present and future CAP reform induced unde... more The paper presents a political economy analysis of the present and future CAP reform induced under different policy scenarios regarding future EU enlargement and future WTO agreements. Theoretically, the analysis is based on a political exchange model suggested by HENNING (2000). Main results are: (i) Both present and future CAP reforms are significantly biased by the political influence of farmers' lobby. (ii) In quantitative terms an EU enlargement would induce a much stronger shift in the future CAP when compared to increased WTO restrictions. (iii) The timing of the reform is important, given the fact that induced CAP reforms would be supported by a qualified majority within the EU-15, but within the EU-25 these reforms would be defeated by coalition of the new Eastern European member states using their common veto-power. (iv) The majority of political actors within the EU-15 including both politicians and interest groups evaluate induced CAP reforms negatively in comparison...
This study analyzes the impact of the Mid-Term Review (MTR) on the agricultural sector in Schlesw... more This study analyzes the impact of the Mid-Term Review (MTR) on the agricultural sector in Schleswig-Holstein, a federal state in Germany. First, a very detailed farm group linear programming model is built to quantify the effects on agricultural production and farm incomes. The production adjustment to the MTR and its impact on farm profit vary significantly between individual farms. These results depend mainly on the farm type and the resource endowments of the farms. Second, the impact on structural change is examined with a farm survival model. Although the MTR clearly reduces the incomes of several farm types, it accelerates the structural change only gradually.
Policy development is a complex and highly dimensional process. This complexity is very difficult... more Policy development is a complex and highly dimensional process. This complexity is very difficult to comprehend due to complexity of the parameter space, multi-dependence of parameters, and the nature of process. Therefore, policy makers should be supported while considering and evaluating various alternative decisions. This paper illustrates a modelling approach for advisory and assistance in decision making for political practitioners. We describe the corresponding advisory tool supporting the interactive decision process.
Der steile Anstieg der Nahrungsmittelpreise hat zu einer allgemeinen Verunsicherung geführt. Nach... more Der steile Anstieg der Nahrungsmittelpreise hat zu einer allgemeinen Verunsicherung geführt. Nach Ansicht von Joachim von Braun, International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington, können die Lebensmittelpreise langfristig nur durch eine Steigerung der Produktion stabilisiert werden. Vor allem sollten die Regierungen in den Entwicklungsländern ihre mittel- und langfristigen Investitionen in ländliche Infrastruktur, landwirtschaftliche Forschung und Beratung sowie den Marktzugang für Kleinbauern
Europäische Integration, 2003
Kollektive Entscheidungen werden in der Europäischen Union unter ganz verschiedenen institutionel... more Kollektive Entscheidungen werden in der Europäischen Union unter ganz verschiedenen institutionellen Bedingungen getroffen. Sie reichen von den Regierungskonferenzen zur Vorbereitung von Vertragsänderungen, die der nationalen Ratifikation bedürfen, über einstimmige Beschlüsse des Europäischen Rats z.B. über einen gemeinsamen Standpunkt in der Außenund Sicherheitspolitik (Art. 15 und 23 EUV) bis zu den verschiedenen Formen, die für die Schaffung von sekundärem Gemeinschaftsrecht durch die Organe der Europäischen Gemeinschaften vorgesehen sind. Die EG legt ihre Gemeinschaftspolitiken durch Verordnungen und Richtlinien fest (Art. 249 EGV). Das historisch älteste Entscheidungsverfahren ist die kollektive Entscheidung durch den Ministerrat auf Vorschlag der Kommission nach Anhörung des Parlaments (Anhörungsverfahren). Es ist nach wie vor für die gemeinsame Agrarpolitik gültig (Art. 37 EGV) und damit für knapp die Hälfte der finanziellen Verpflichtungen, die sich aus Rechtsakten der EG ergeben (Herdegen 2001: 208). Die Entwicklung geht in Richtung auf eine stärkere Einbindung des Europäischen Parlaments in die Entscheidungsverfahren, so bei der Feststellung des Haushalts, bei dem das Parlament sich bei den nicht obligatorischen Ausgaben durchsetzen kann (Art. 272, Abs. 4-6 EGV), oder beim Mitentscheidungsverfahren, das durch den Maastrichter Vertrag eingeführt, durch den Vertrag von Amsterdam modifiziert und dessen Anwendung durch die Verträge von Amsterdam und Nizza auf weitere Bereiche ausgedehnt wurde. Jede kollektiv bindende Entscheidung, die nicht von einer einzelnen Person getroffen wird, ist ein Verfahren der Präferenzaggregation. Die Abstimmungsregeln im EU-System sehen alle Möglichkeiten von strikter Einstimmigkeit, Einstimmigkeit mit Enthaltungsmöglichkeit, über qualifizierte Mehrheiten bis zu einfachen Mehrheiten, sei es der Abstimmenden oder der Mitglieder eines Gremiums, vor. Von der Logik des Entscheidens soll hier in dem Sinn die Rede sein, dass institutionelle Regeln bei angenommenen unveränderten Politikpräferenzen der Abstimmenden zu bestimmten Arten von Ergebnissen führen. Da man natürlich die Politikpräferenzen der Abstimmenden nicht, wie in einem Experiment, unverändert lassen kann, benötigt
PLoS ONE, 2014
Objective: The aim of the present study was to examine to what extent different social network me... more Objective: The aim of the present study was to examine to what extent different social network mechanisms are involved in the pathogenesis of obesity and insulin-resistance. Design: We used nonparametric and parametric regression models to analyse whether individual BMI and HOMA-IR are determined by social network characteristics. Subjects and Methods: A total of 677 probands (EGO) and 3033 social network partners (ALTER) were included in the study. Data gathered from the probands include anthropometric measures, HOMA-IR index, health attitudes, behavioural and socioeconomic variables and social network data. Results: We found significant treatment effects for ALTERs frequent dieting (p,0.001) and ALTERs health oriented nutritional attitudes (p,0.001) on EGO's BMI, establishing a significant indirect network effect also on EGO's insulin resistance. Most importantly, we also found significant direct social network effects on EGO's insulin resistance, evidenced by an effect of ALTERs frequent dieting (p = 0.033) and ALTERs sport activities (p = 0.041) to decrease EGO's HOMA-IR index independently of EGO's BMI. Conclusions: Social network phenomena appear not only to be relevant for the spread of obesity, but also for the spread of insulin resistance as the basis for type 2 diabetes. Attitudes and behaviour of peer groups influence EGO's health status not only via social mechanisms, but also via socio-biological mechanisms, i.e. higher brain areas might be influenced not only by biological signals from the own organism, but also by behaviour and knowledge from different human individuals. Our approach allows the identification of peer group influence controlling for potential homophily even when using crosssectional observational data.
The Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS) is an independent policy research institute based i... more The Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS) is an independent policy research institute based in Brussels. Its mission is to produce sound analytical research leading to constructive solutions to the challenges facing Europe today. The views expressed in this report are those of the ...
This paper derives a general spatial theory of voting based on Down's concept of a pure policy-or... more This paper derives a general spatial theory of voting based on Down's concept of a pure policy-oriented rational voter. Applying a modified Baron-Ferejohn model we include voter's perception of postelection bargaining in voter's evaluation of a party to derive a unified model of voting. Main results are: (i) our theory includes the original proximity model of Downs, the directional model of Rabinowitz as well as Kedar's compensational and Grofman's discounting model as special cases. However, especially Kedar's compensational model corresponds to rather unrealistic assumptions regarding voters' perception of postelection bargaining. (ii) The relative weight of the proximity component varies significantly across majoritarian and power sharing systems, and (iii) is additionally determined by party characteristics, i.e. party size, discipline and extremism, as well as voter characteristics, i.e. the organization of voters in social groups or networks. (iv) according to our theory party leaders have less incentives to take extreme party platforms due to the negative impact of extreme platforms on voters' perception of party's performance in postelection bargaining contradicting partly conclusions drawn by Kedar. (vi) existing empirical analyzes support our theory.
American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 2011
Based on the well-known fact that social networks can provide effective mechanisms that help to i... more Based on the well-known fact that social networks can provide effective mechanisms that help to increase the trust level between two trade partners, we apply a simple game-theoretical framework to derive transaction costs as a high risk of opportunistic behavior in a repeated trade relation determined by the density and size of trading networks. In the empirical part of the paper we apply a two stage procedure to estimate the impact of social network structures on farm's transaction costs observed for different input and output markets. At a first stage we estimate a multiple input-multiple output stochastic Ray production function to generate relative shadow prices of three inputs and two outputs traded by farms. At a second stage a structural equation system is derived from the first order conditions of farm's profit maximization to estimate simultaneously the parameters of commodity specific transaction cost functions for all traded farm inputs and outputs. Estimation results based on a sample of 315 Polish farms imply a significant influence of social network structures on farm's transaction costs. Moreover, estimated transaction costs correspond to a reasonable amount of farm specific shadow prices.
Ein einfaches polit-ökonomisches Gleichgewichtsmodell
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Papers by christian Henning