Publications by David Castells-Quintana
Journal of Development Economics 158, 2022
In this paper, we study the effect of displacement of population into cities on urban conflict in... more In this paper, we study the effect of displacement of population into cities on urban conflict in developing countries. To do so, we construct a novel measure of exposure to floods, using data on more than 3300 flood events worldwide, as an exogenous source of population displacement. We combine this with city level observations of thousands of urban social disorder events over the period 1985–2015. Exposure to floods is found to be associated with higher intensity of urban social disorder. Our evidence suggests that the effects of floods on urban disorder occur in part through the displacement of population into large cities. Exploring the information on urban disorder events in more detail, we find that the association between city growth and urban disorder is strongest for events related to public service provision, prices and wages.
Ecological Economics 189, 2021
In this paper, we take a global view at air pollution looking at cities and countries worldwide. ... more In this paper, we take a global view at air pollution looking at cities and countries worldwide. We pay special attention at the spatial distribution of population and its relationship with the evolution of emissions. To do so, we build i) a unique and large dataset for more than 1200 (big) cities around the world, combining data on emissions of CO2 and PM2.5 with satellite data on built-up areas, population and light intensity at night at the grid-cell level for the last two decades, and ii) a large dataset for more than 190 countries with data from 1960 to 2010. At the city level, we find that denser cities show lower emissions per capita. We also find evidence for the importance of the spatial structure of the city, with polycentricity being associated with lower emissions in the largest urban areas, while monocentricity being more beneficial for smaller cities. In sum, our results suggest that the size and structure of urban areas matters when studying the density-emissions relationship. This is reinforced by results using our country-level data where we find that higher density in urban areas is associated with lower emissions per capita. All our main findings are robust to several controls and different specifications and estimation techniques, as well as different identification strategies.
Journal of Economic Geography 21(4): 531-556 , 2021
We study the relationship between changes in weather patterns and the spatial distribution of pop... more We study the relationship between changes in weather patterns and the spatial distribution of population and economic activity within countries. Our unique global dataset combines climatic and census data for the period 1950–2015 with satellite data on built-up areas, and light intensity at night for the 1990–2015 periods. We establish a global non-linear effect of climate on urbanisation. In particular, we find that deteriorating climatic conditions are associated with more urbanisation. This happens across the whole urban structure, with urbanisation increasing in both smaller and larger cities. But, we also find that weather variation can alter the national urban structure, including the pattern of urban concentration, as well as the size, density and spatial structure of large cities.
Journal of Development Studies 56(9): 1663-1682., 2020
That urbanisation in many developing countries, especially in Sub-Saharan Africa, is not deliveri... more That urbanisation in many developing countries, especially in Sub-Saharan Africa, is not delivering the kind of benefits that might be expected in the light of experience elsewhere in the world is now widely acknowledged. This urbanisation without growth has been the focus of recent research in both the development and urban economics literature. In this paper, we focus on demographic factors and develop a simple dynamic model to describe internal migrations, the evolution of the urban rate and total productivity, and how these are affected by population growth and investments in urban infrastructure. Our model can predict basic trends in the data, including urbanisation without growth and the rise of (poor) megacities. We complement the model with empirical evidence using (i) international cross-country panel data; and (ii) regional data from Tanzania.
World Development 104: 183-196., 2018
This paper looks at adaptation to climate change from the point of view of (poor) households. Sin... more This paper looks at adaptation to climate change from the point of view of (poor) households. Since the development literature has firmly established the role of weather risk as a source of income volatility for the poor, and climate change is expected to increase this risk, we review the range of risk-coping mechanisms available to poorer households, with a focus on possible barriers to adaptation. We ask both how government interventions affect the set of options available for adaptation and risk coping, and also what these adaptive responses imply for the prospects of sustainable development. Support for adaptation can involve efforts to make existing locations, livelihoods and forms of production more resilient to climate risk (in-situ adaptation), or reductions in vulnerability through the geographical and sectoral mobility of the poor (transformational adaptation). Our review shows how successful adaptation will need to strike a balance between the two forms of adaptation, avoiding locking-in unsustainable practices in locations that are already marginal from an economic perspective, and taking account of broader socio-economic trends already taking place in many developing countries (such as population growth and urbanisation). We also highlight important considerations for policy-makers, which to date have been relatively neglected in the literature, in particular related to the dynamic interaction between adaptation and sustainable development.
Journal of Regional Science 58(3): 564-580. , 2018
As countries develop the percentage of population living in urban areas tends to increase. As thi... more As countries develop the percentage of population living in urban areas tends to increase. As this happens, inequality is expected first to increase and then to decline in what is known as the Kuznets inverted-U. But the literature has not paid much attention to differences in the absolute size of cities potentially affecting economy-wide inequality. Building on insights from the urban economics literature, this paper studies the relationship between the size and distribution of cities and income inequality at country level. Results show that beyond Kuznets’ hypothesis there is a U-shaped relationship between average city size and inequality; inequality first falls and then increases with average city size. This result is robust to a long list of controls, different estimation techniques, and identification strategies.
The link between urban concentration (primacy) and economic growth at country level is not straig... more The link between urban concentration (primacy) and economic growth at country level is not straightforward, as there are benefits as well as costs associated with urban primacy. Recent empirical evidence suggests a differential negative effect of concentration in Sub-Saharan Africa compared to the rest of the world. This paper revisits the literature on urban concentration and economic growth to shed some light on these recent results. The main contribution of the paper is to show how differentiated effects of urban primacy on economic growth can be accounted for by considering a role for the quality of the urban environment (in terms of urban infrastructure). The role of urban infrastructure is found to be robust to a long list of controls, different specifications, different estimation techniques, and potential bias from simultaneity and measurement error.
The crisis of global financial-led growth reflects evidence of exhaustion of the current model of... more The crisis of global financial-led growth reflects evidence of exhaustion of the current model of accumulation, which has been in place since the late 1970s, characterized by lower growth rates and decreasing labour shares. A system which so far has only been possible by means of excessive consumerism through increasing indebtedness, accelerated depletion of resources, growing income inequalities and social exclusion and unrest. Yet this is no longer sustainable. Since the end of the last century, we can find and connect root signs of a multidimensional systemic crisis, which manifests itself today beyond the economic downturn in terms of human, ecological and socio-political crises. The contradictions that arise from the process of capital accumulation are the point of departure to look at this multidimensional crisis.
Most immigration theories tend to highlight that migration follows wealth and economic dynamism, ... more Most immigration theories tend to highlight that migration follows wealth and economic dynamism, but is this also the case across regions in Europe? The aim of the paper is to investigate whether migrants in Europe indeed follow the money and to contrast this with a variety of potential alternative explanations, including the presence of migrants from a similar origin. The analysis is based on panel data estimations including 133 European regions over a time period of 17 years. Different lag structures have been employed in order to distinguish between short- and long-run effects. The results cast some doubt about the prominence of pecuniary factors as a determinant of cross regional migration in Europe, with little evidence to support the idea that migration follows economic dynamism. Network effects, human capital related-, and ‘territorially embedded’ innovation enhancing regional characteristics, by contrast, seem to play a much stronger role than hitherto considered.
Income inequality is both at the political and academic agenda. Because of the Great Recession, i... more Income inequality is both at the political and academic agenda. Because of the Great Recession, income inequality has experienced an increase in many parts of the world in general and in many European regions in particular. In addition, several academics have signalled inequality as a source of such crisis. Nevertheless, few attempts have been made for conducting the analysis at the regional level. In this work we analyse the main factors behind current trends in inequality in Europe over the last decade. We develop our analysis at the regional level, which adds a new dimension to the existing literature. Our results point to a large diversity in inequality patterns. Inequality is on average lower in more developed regions, but recent increases in inequality seem associated with economic growth. Our results suggest that tertiary specialisation, openness, and technological change, although likely to be associated with economic growth, are also associated with increasing inequalities.
In this letter I summarise the main results and contributions from my Ph.D. thesis on concentrati... more In this letter I summarise the main results and contributions from my Ph.D. thesis on concentration of resources and economic development. The empirical analysis performed in the thesis, and summarised here, focuses on two mayor world trends in modern economic development, namely increasing agglomeration and rising inequalities within countries. In particular, the impact of both trends on long-run economic growth is studied, and results are discussed in light of relevant policy debate.
Modern economic growth is apparently characterized by rising income inequalities and increasing u... more Modern economic growth is apparently characterized by rising income inequalities and increasing urbanisation. By considering both these factors as the two-pronged expression (personal and spatial) of concentration of resources within countries, this paper has focused on how they are associated with the process of economic development. From the perspective of the current policy debate on whether countries should foster increasing spatial concentration even at the risk of higher inequalities, we have briefly revised the main theories interrelating inequality, urbanisation and economic growth. We have analysed the main stylized facts of the association between these variables by using a panel of 51 countries over the period 1970–2007.
During the last two decades there has been an intense debate over the efficacy and efficiency of ... more During the last two decades there has been an intense debate over the efficacy and efficiency of international aid. The debate has focused on the performance of beneficiary countries in terms of economic growth. Yet little attention has been paid to the role of aid on income distribution within receiving countries, despite the fact that reducing inequality is an explicit aim of international aid. In this paper, we analyse the role of aid in the evolution of income distribution over the last two decades for 18 Latin American countries. While Latin America is the most unequal region of the world, it includes some of the countries currently leading the reduction of inequality at the global level. The region is also currently losing a significant amount of aid disbursements. The main findings of our work, once we have controlled for several relevant variables, is that there has been is a significant effect of international aid on reducing income inequality in Latin America.
International migrations and urbanisation rates have seen a large increase in the last decades. H... more International migrations and urbanisation rates have seen a large increase in the last decades. Here we analyse the relationships between migrations and urbanisation by using a panel of ca 200 countries over the period 1960-2010. We describe the main global stylised facts on urbanisation and international migrations focusing on differences in these across world regions. We found that while there was a positive association between immigration and urbanisation, particularly in small and medium-sized cities, the association between emigration and urbanisation in developing countries was inverse. Both associations have become stronger over the few past decades, and our results highlight that international migration is an increasingly relevant and complementary dimension of the traditional rural-urban reallocation of workers which takes place during economic development.
Agglomeration and income inequality at country level can be both understood as concentration of p... more Agglomeration and income inequality at country level can be both understood as concentration of physical and human capital in the process of economic development. As such, it seems pertinent to analyse their impact on economic growth considering both phenomena together. By estimating a dynamic panel specification at country level, this paper analyses how agglomeration and inequality (both their levels and their evolution) influence long-run economic growth. In line with previous findings, our results suggest that while high inequality levels are a limiting factor for long-run growth, agglomeration processes can be associated with economic growth, at least in countries at early stages of development. Moreover, we find that the growth-enhancing benefits from agglomeration processes depend not only on the country’s level of development, but also on its initial income distribution (something, to the best of our knowledge, not considered before). In fact, probably suggesting a social dimension to congestion diseconomies, increasing agglomeration is associated with lower growth when income distribution is particularly unequal.
Two of the most dramatic aspects of the current economic crisis are with no doubt the experience ... more Two of the most dramatic aspects of the current economic crisis are with no doubt the experience of high and persistent rates of unemployment and the accelerated pace at which inequalities increase. But high and persistent levels of unemployment and increasing inequality are more than a consequence of scarcer opportunities related to the crisis; they can also be negative determinants for subse- quent long-run economic growth. In this work, we consider unemployment and in- come inequality, and interactions between both, as possible determinants of long- run growth by using cross-sectional international data. Our results suggest that: 1) while initial high unemployment rates do not seem to be statistically significant to explain long-run growth, they do have a negative and significant effect when interacting with increases in inequality. 2) When we differentiate based on levels of urbanization, increasing inequality harms growth in countries with high levels of urbanization, as well as in countries with low levels of urbanization in which there is high and persistent unemployment.
Although the sustained economic growth of the last years the poverty levels in Colombia are still... more Although the sustained economic growth of the last years the poverty levels in Colombia are still rising. The data shows clearly that the Colombian growth is anti poor. Many factors, mainly the economic policy of the country, have allowed inequality to rise and the movement of more Colombians into poverty while the country’s economy is in expansion. This article is fruit of an author’s study (La pobreza en Colombia: Persistencia, estrategias para su reducción y el fracaso del modelo neoliberal) deeper, integral and systematic about poverty in Colombia using the differential diagnosis methodology proposed by doctor Jeffrey Sachs.
What do we understand by development? Is development a homogeneous concept? Should all societies ... more What do we understand by development? Is development a homogeneous concept? Should all societies follow the same pattern of development? This article intends to challenge the traditional concept of development and strengthen the idea that development depends on the priorities of each society, being materialistic or not, where the satisfaction of Basic Human Necessities and the eradication of extreme poverty is the fundamental starting point.
Cómo podemos relacionar el desempeño de las empresas en términos de eficiencia con la actual situ... more Cómo podemos relacionar el desempeño de las empresas en términos de eficiencia con la actual situación de crisis económica? Puesto que el crecimiento económico y el bienestar general no dejan de ser resultado del buen desempeño de los agentes productivos de una economía, analizando como cada empresa e industria alcanza, o deja de hacerlo, las diferentes facetas de eficiencia podemos ver el papel que estas juegan como parte de las causas y soluciones a la crisis.
Working papers by David Castells-Quintana
Despite extensive research, there is still controversy on the effects of income inequality on eco... more Despite extensive research, there is still controversy on the effects of income inequality on economic growth. The literature proposes several transmission channels through which these effects may take place, and even the existence of two different forms of inequality. However, empirical studies have generally not distinguished between these channels, nor have their analyses included a consideration of the two forms of inequality and their separate effects on growth. In this paper we review the theory and the evidence on the different transmission channels through which inequality influences growth. We contribute to the literature by using a system of recursive equations, following a control function approach, to empirically assess the relevance of these channels and to differentiate between two forms of inequality. In this way we have captured in a single model not only a negative effect, but also a positive effect of inequality on long-run economic growth.
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Publications by David Castells-Quintana
Working papers by David Castells-Quintana
empirical evidence on the role that the urban environment plays in the relationship between urban concentration and economic growth.