Share this page!

Enter URL or ID to Unroll

You can paste full URL like: https://x.com/threadreaderapp/status/1644127596119195649
or just the ID like: 1644127596119195649

How to get URL link on X (Twitter) App

  1. On the Twitter thread, click on or icon on the bottom
  2. Click again on or Share Via icon
  3. Click on Copy Link to Tweet
  4. Paste it above and click "Unroll Thread"!
  5. More info at Twitter Help
Critical Threats Profile picture
Critical Threats
@criticalthreats
An @AEI project focused on understanding threats and tracking global challenges | Contact us: [email protected] | Media requests: [email protected]
8 subscribers
Nov 16 • 6 tweets • 3 min read
NEW | The Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei reportedly told Lebanese Hezbollah to accept a ceasefire agreement that would require Hezbollah to remain north of the Litani River. (1/6) Image
Image
Image
Image This report, assuming it is accurate, highlights the extent to which Iran lacks the capability or willingness to defend the Axis of Resistance against Israel. (2/6) Image
Image
Image
Image
Nov 13 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
NEW | Ukrainian military officials warned that Russian forces may intensify assaults in Zaporizhia Oblast in the near future.

It is unclear if the Russian military intends to conduct a unified offensive operation or separate assaults. Image
Image Ukrainian Tavriisk Group of Forces Spokesperson Colonel Vladyslav Voloshyn told Reuters in a November 11 article that Russian forces are moving trained assault groups to forward positions in occupied Zaporizhia Oblast.
Oct 29 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
Hezbollah is relying on rocket and mortar shelling to harass Israeli positions and has abandoned high-end supplies.

Learn why @brian_cartr assesses Hezbollah’s forces are in disarray🧵⬇️ Image
Image Rockets and mortars cannot defend ground alone, and Hezbollah has not conducted any sophisticated multi-stage ambushes.

Hezbollah is not combining rocket and mortar attacks with infantry, which would be necessary to effectively defend against Israeli attacks.
Oct 28 • 10 tweets • 3 min read
Israel has routed Hezbollah units, at least the immediate border area.

Hezbollah has so far failed to effectively execute any serious military undertaking at scale.

Read the analysis from @brian_cartr 🧵⬇️ Image
Image The IDF entered Lebanon in force on October 1 after a months-long air and ground campaign that disrupted Hezbollah’s command structure.

Israel’s persistent airstrikes likely continue to disrupt Hezbollah reorganization efforts.
Oct 27 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
NEW | The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) conducted three waves of strikes into Iran on October 25. The strikes were in response to the large-scale ballistic missile attack that Iran launched against Israel on October 1. The IDF targeted around 20 locations around Tehran and western Iran, including vital air defense assets and facilities tied to the Iranian drone and missile programs. 1/5Image The IDF in particular struck four S-300 air defense batteries, which are Russian-made and the most advanced air defense system that Iran operates. That the IDF hit these batteries highlights the relative vulnerabilities of the S-300, especially against advanced platforms like the F-35 fighter jet. 2/5
Oct 23 • 9 tweets • 2 min read
NEW | A senior Israeli intelligence official told Iranian anti-regime media that Israel’s recent operations in Lebanon have disrupted Iran’s ability to provide funds to Hezbollah. (1/9) Image Hezbollah’s chief media official said that Hezbollah is attempting to capture Israeli soldiers. (2/9)
Oct 18 • 10 tweets • 3 min read
What are the implications of Yahya Sinwar’s death, and why will his death fail to end the war?

Sinwar’s death brings two senior military officials to the fore: Mohammad Sinwar (L) and Izz al Din al Haddad (R).

Read the latest from @brian_cartr to learn more 🧵Image
Image Sinwar’s brother Mohammad Sinwar is the most likely candidate to officially take over the group’s military wing and guide the rebuilding of Hamas.

Mohammad joined Hamas’ earliest cells in the 1980s, later rising to lead Hamas’ Khan Younis Brigade.
Sep 21 • 8 tweets • 1 min read
NEW I Israel has issued new security protocols for some of its northern communities in anticipation of intensifying conflict with Lebanese Hezbollah. 1/7 Image Israel Defense Forces (IDF) spokesperson Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari announced the new measures for residents on September 21 in response to indications that Hezbollah is preparing to launch rocket attacks into Israel. 2/7
Aug 20 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
Iranian officials suggested that Iran will delay its retaliation against Israel for the death of former Hamas head Ismail Haniyeh until after ceasefire negotiations conclude. 1/5 Image The United States and international mediators have maintained pressure on Iran to encourage Tehran to delay or indefinitely postpone its attack, arguing that such a delay could help deescalate regional tension. 2/5
Aug 15 • 11 tweets • 3 min read
NEW | Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei indicated that he still believes Iran must respond to Israeli operations targeting senior Axis of Resistance leaders in recent weeks, despite back-channel threats from the United States emphasizing that Israel would respond forcefully to an attack that kills Israeli civilians or causes significant damage. 1/11Image Official Hamas statements suggest that a ceasefire during the August 15 Doha talks is unlikely. Unspecified Hamas officials have suggested that Hamas could attend the talks, however. 2/11
Image
Image
Aug 8 • 11 tweets • 2 min read
NEW | Ukrainian forces have made confirmed advances up to 10 kilometers into Russia's Kursk Oblast amid continued mechanized offensive operations on Russian territory on August 7. 1/12
Image
Image The Kremlin's response to Ukrainian offensive activities in Kursk Oblast has so far been contradictory, as Russian officials are attempting to balance presenting the effort as a notable Ukrainian escalation with avoiding overstating its potential implications and risking domestic discontent. 2/12
Aug 7 • 10 tweets • 2 min read
NEW | Acting Iranian Foreign Minister Ali Bagheri Kani defended Iran’s impending retaliatory strike against Israel while signaling that Iran seeks to avoid a regional war during an Organization of Islamic Cooperation meeting in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, on August 7. 1/10 Image The Axis of Resistance and Iran are coalescing around Yahya Sinwar as Hamas’ new leader. Sinwar’s leadership is very unlikely to change Hamas’ maximalist position on ceasefire and hostage negotiations in the Gaza Strip. 2/10
Image
Image
Jul 26 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
In the Nigerien junta's first year of rule, it has sought to address economic challenges that could threaten regime stability by working with China, Iran, Russia, and Turkey to secure quick revenue. 1/8
Image The junta is still experiencing significant economic shortfalls following regional sanctions that ended in February.

These issues led to massive budget cuts, debt defaults, stunted economic growth, and growing food prices and poverty. 2/8
Jul 24 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
NEW | Hamas, Fatah and other unspecified Palestinian political factions agreed on a vision for post-war governance of the Gaza Strip on July 23 during “intra-Palestinian reconciliation” talks in Beijing. Image The United States, Israel, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) are separately advancing an alternative post-war governance vision for the Gaza Strip that conflicts with the Beijing meeting’s vision.
Jun 27 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
NEW | Niger revoked the operating permit for a uranium mine from French state-owned mining company Orano. Russia aims to assume operations based on an early June Bloomberg report that Russian state-owned nuclear company Rosatom is in talks to acquire Orano's Nigerien assets. 1/5Image The Nigerien junta is likely seeking military support or near-term access to revenue to bolster its counterinsurgency efforts and economy, strengthening its regime security. The junta has brokered other deals to exchange natural resources for loans and weapons in 2024. 2/5
Jun 21 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
NEW | The reported presence of high-level Islamic State leaders in Somalia & across Africa reflects African affiliates' increasingly critical role in the IS global network, including funding external attacks & recruiting foreign fighters. 1/8Image A US drone strike targeted IS Somalia Province (ISS) Emir Abdulqadir Mumin in May. US officials claimed that Mumin became IS’s “global leader” in 2023. Independent analysts have clarified that Mumin likely leads the General Directorate of Provinces & is not the IS caliph. 2/8
Jun 7 • 7 tweets • 3 min read
One area Russian officials focused on during their Africa tours is strengthening Russia’s military footprint. The Kremlin uses military influence in Africa to leverage limited resources to create opportunities to threaten Europe & advance Russia's image as a great power. 1/7


Image
Image
Image Deputy Defense Minister Yevkurov pledged to boost Libyan National Army capabilities, signed a multi-sectoral agreement with Niger, and discussed military cooperation w/ Mali. Foreign Minister Lavrov also announced that Russia would send more military support to Burkina Faso. 2/7
Jun 6 • 8 tweets • 4 min read
NEW | Russian officials are visiting Africa, seeking to advance the Kremlin’s strategic goals of supplanting Western influence & better positioning Russia for prolonged confrontation with the West by tightening military, economic, and political ties with African partners. 1/8Image
Image
Image
Image Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov visited Guinea, Congo, Burkina Faso, and Chad, while Deputy Defense Minister Yunus Bek Yevkurov visited Libya, Mali, and Niger on separate trips between May 31 and June 5. 2/8
May 19 • 12 tweets • 2 min read
Iranian President #Raisi and several senior officials were in a helicopter crash earlier today. What’s happening in #Iran and what does it mean for the future of the regime? 🧵 1/12 Iranian media reported earlier today that Raisi and several members of his administration including Foreign Minister Amir Abdollahian were in a serious helicopter crash in Iran. 2/12
May 3 • 8 tweets • 4 min read
Russian forces are now deployed next to withdrawing US troops in Niamey. This supports CTP's assessment that Russian troops will also backfill the US base in northern Niger, which will create several long-term opportunities for the Kremlin to strategically threaten Europe. 1/9🧵


Image
Image
Image The 100-person Russian Africa Corps deployment will immediately enable Russia to strengthen its influence in Niger & consolidate its logistical network in Africa, but will likely remain small in the coming months due to recruitment issues. 2/9 Image
Apr 19 • 10 tweets • 3 min read
CNN reported yesterday that Chad threatened to kick out the handful of US trainers in the country. This mostly symbolic move strongly supports CTP's assessment that Chad may increase cooperation with Russia. This thread discusses Chad's reasons for this potential shift. 1/10🧵
Image Malian officials recently claimed that Chad expressed interest in joining the Russia-backed Alliance of Sahel States (AES). Chadian junta leader Mahamat Deby has also vowed to improve security & signaled openness to cooperating with Russia as part of his presidential campaign. 2/10