The old token launch meta is gone.

Point-for-airdrops helped to attract TVL to boost valuations.

6 months ago Scroll could’ve traded at 3x/4x the valuation.

But the mask is off. Other protocols that fail to innovate on token launch will face the same.

https://twitter.com/redhairshanks86/status/1848653068554166339

The mismatch between expectations and reality is stark.

We started farming long time ago in a different era where low float was bullish: projects could pump tokens sky high on low circulation.

FDV was the meme.

Now, high expectations lead to disappointment.

Change token launch model!

The Uni L2 launch isn't too surprising as Uniswap aims to be a platform, not just a dApp.

The first step was announcing Uniswap V4 with "hooks."

Think of them as "plugins" or "extensions" that allow for the execution of customized code during key events within a pool like:

• on-chain limit orders
• autocompound LP fees
• KYC

The "hooks" are like bringing App Store to the iPhone.

Like Apple no longer needed to develop iPhone apps themselves, devs can build on top of Uniswap.

Now, the L2 further solidifies their dominance and liquidity.

This is bullish for $UNI as Uniswap DAO now has many more options for token utility.

Notice how Unichain's announcement doesn't mention token utility: they are keeping the options for now and discussions in the forum will start. Fee switch is not the only option anymore.

The good news: Uniswap decided to build on OP stack and implement native interoperability to enable single-block, cross-chain message passing among Superchain L2s.

This at least partly minimizes liquidity fragmentation. But liquidity fragmentation will likely worsen in the short term.

Is it bullish for $ETH, though? At least Uniswap is not launching their own L1.

But I believe Ethereum must find ways to accrue value from all these L2s launching on it. It's getting more urgent than ever. Wouldn't be surprised if Uni v4 first launched on Unichain. Perhaps only on Unichain before moving to other chains.

It would make sense for them.

1/ Is Binance front-running TGE announcements?

Binance announced Scroll's launchpool and pre-market trading for Oct 11th without any official statement from the Scroll team.

Are teams caught off guard? Scroll is not the first protocol seemingly front-run by Binance.

Plus... 2/ Binance also announced some tokenomics details that should be communicated by team.

• Circulating supply at launch: 190M SCR (19%)
• Crazy 5.5% of the total supply goes to Binance whales for just 2 days of farming

I'll be annoyed if Scroll gives less than 15% to community.

1/ $EIGEN trades outside the top 100 tokens.

In contrast, Chainlink's $LINK has a market cap 11x higher, and $TAO is worth 7 times more than $EIGEN.

Adjusted for FDV, both $LINK and $TAO trade at twice the $EIGEN FDV.

Even $TIA trades at 2x the MC of $EIGEN. Why? 2/ It's even more surprising as Eigenlayer has become the third-largest protocol by TVL at $10B, nearly matching AAVE's $11B.

Despite this, AAVE trades at 3.7 times the value of EIGEN.

Although, when you adjust for TVL, AAVE is actually twice as cheap as EIGEN.

1/ Want to grow and monetize your audience on X?

Sharing tips and insights from my personal journey to 100k followers:🧵 2/ I never planned to be an "influencer." It sounds so cheesy and cringey.

There’s a negative sentiment around influencers and the whole influencer economy.

Crypto is full of grifters who harm by shilling and dumping on their followers.

1/ Is BTC a risk-on or risk-off asset?

Blackrock hears this question more than any other.

Their latest research shows Bitcoin is indeed risky but not a "risk-on" asset.

Here's the breakdown: 🧵 2/ BTC is undeniably risky, having been the worst-performing major asset in 7 out of the last 10 years.

Yet it not only recovered each time but also outperformed all major asset classes, achieving a crazy annualized return of over 100% over the past decade.

1/2 Why is USDC's supply decreasing?

USDC's total supply dropped from $55B to $35B.

Yet USDT's supply increased from $84B to $120B.

What's behind this shift?

Major structural changes are happening, and it's weird this isn't discussed more on X. 2/2 Possible explanation was offered by @nic__carter a year ago:

"US policymakers have successfully pushed investors out of onshore, regulated stables into offshore, unregulated stables."

If this is still true, a pro-crypto government in the US would be extremely bullish.

https://twitter.com/420308365/status/1668245037384073217

1/ What if governments decide to "ban" crypto?

After Durov's arrest for not stopping crime on Telegram, crypto could be a target in the future.

Sounds far fetched, but politicians already claim that crypto enables crime like terrorist funding & money laundering.

So, what if? 2/ Governments could try a 51% attack on BTC, as two pools control over 50% of its mining.

Mining pools lets combining computing power, share costs, and boost reward chances.

This results in consistent payouts, lower entry barriers, and shared financial risks.

1/ The current crypto bull run is mainly driven by external macro factors.

But exciting launches and catalysts are coming to boost the internal crypto machine.

Here are my top 15 to watch: 🧵 2/ Monad (Mainnet by end of 2024?): Do we need another alt-L1?

Will it end up as another low-float, high-FDV dumpfest?

Can Monad attract unique value adding, non-fork dApps?

1/ Ethereum is good:

Ten reasons to be bullish on $ETH↓ 2/ Low Inflation:

Despite low gas fees, ETH's annual inflation is below 1%.

In comparison, other major L1 competitors have higher inflation rates, such as SOL at around 4%, along with significant VC unlocks expected in the coming years for most other L1s (SUI, APTOS, etc.)

1/ Easy to be bearish on ETH:

It underperformed SOL and BTC, and bearish sentiment dominates the feed.

But there's a catalyst to get bullish about: Pectra upgrade: 🧵 2/ The Pectra Upgrade is Ethereum’s next major upgrade, expected to roll out in Q1 2025.

It merges the Prague (execution layer) and Electra (consensus layer) updates.

Unlike previous upgrades, Pectra seems to get no FOMO at all.

1/ Random thoughts on the state of crypto: #2

Investing in MOST previous cycle tokens is a waste—they are either boring or hose teams have already "made it" and are just pretending to care about their projects.

Find the exceptions to outperform the market. 2/ Solana is fun for trading, but long term holdings better stored on Ethereum.

L2s are currently worse at both.

1/ You can't hit replay on a big announcement.

Be it a protocol mainnet launch, an airdrop, a tokenomics reveal, or a major upgrade—you've got one chance.

Make it count.

So, here's my trade offer: 👇 2/ The usual crypto playbook involves an official blog post, a tweet with a hope it clicks.

Teams also pay for PR articles on media and appear on podcasts to talk about the launch.

All this is great, but there's a missing piece to make the launch truly resonate...

Polkadot spent $37m USD in outreach during the first half of 2024, targeting new users, developers, and businesses

• $10m on ads/sponsorships
• $4.4m on influencers
• $4m on digital ads

Yet Polkadot still seems invisible on X and elsewhere. In total, Polkadot spent $86m USD in the past 6 months:

The Treasury manages 245m USD (38m DOT) in assets, of which 188m USD (29m DOT) are liquid.

At this burn rate, they'll go bankrupt in less than 2 years.

https://twitter.com/1405113174911766529/status/1806832651422122492

1/ DeFi OG tokens appear dead...

But a major shift in the market is approaching for a new FOMO wave to come to DeFi.

Here's why DeFi is ready to pump: 🧵 2/ DeFi tokens are badly underperforming ETH.

The DeFi Pulse Index (DPI) has been declining against ETH for three years straight. And $ETH itself underperformed BTC this cycle.

DPI includes $UNI, $MKR, $LDO, $AAVE, $SNX, $PENDLE, and others.

1/ Bitcoin Runes appear dead...

But behind the scenes, the infrastructure is being built for a new FOMO wave to come. Development in DEXes is leading the way.

Here are the top Bitcoin L1 exchanges you can try now: 🧵 2/ Trading Runes on BTC is currently no better than BRC20s.

Unisat and Magic Eden require exact order matches for trades, creating friction. But teams are building new engines for better UX/UI.

Many are still in development or on testnet.

1/6 Two-year price performance of the popular EVM DEXes:

Only $UNI outperformed $ETH.

$CAKE and $BAL lagged, but $CRV took the biggest hit.

There's much to learn about product and tokenomics from these results.

A few takes below: ↓ 2/6 While the $BAL price dropped, the market cap increased by 49% from $143m to $204m USD.

The continuous token issuance imposes a heavy tax on $BAL token holders, who end up subsidizing LPs.

FOMO just hit me hard.

First time since March. Research intensifies!

The Life of a DeFi User: Visualized.

Deposit tokens, earn points for airdrops. All good until - BOOM.

Step on a mine: a hack or rug pull. Money lost.

And trust me, losing $10k to a DeFi hack hits harder than losing same $10k trading memecoins. If you've never felt it, consider yourself lucky.

I've been relatively lucky too. Last time I hit was stepping on Terra's UST mine and now I got rekt on Alex labs.

Thankfully, Alex will offer partial refunds to all users.

https://twitter.com/831767219071754240/status/1791050063961276423

1/ Runes protocol launch ended up as a "sell-the-news" event.

But the Runes community is still strong and BTCFi protocol teams continue to build.

I believe a small spark is needed to ignite the Runes hype fire again. A few possible catalysts ahead: ↓ 2/ First short-term catalyst is Runes token listing on major CEXes.

Both Kraken and Binance recently released research reports on Runes.

Kraken even teased Runes listing on their exchange.

1/ Bearish sentiment for $ETH is dominating on Crypto Twitter.

But Coinbase believes ETH will surprise to the upside later in the cycle.

Here are the top ten reasons why: 🧵 2/ Ethereum vs. Competing L1s:

Ethereum ecosystem still dominates DEX volume but Solana and other L1s are eating into ETH's market share.

Plus, ETH's developer ecosystem, EVM proliferation, and role in DeFi as collateral keep it competitive.