Bison is Opposed to Pipestone's Take-Under by Strathcona.

We believe this proposed deal substantially undervalues Pipestone, and that another offer may emerge at a premium to it. (See full disclaimer, we own shares, not a recommendation, do not rely)🧵 Pipestone shares $pipe.to fell vs peers on the deal announcement. We think Pipestone shares will likely recover in price if the deal is rejected by shareholders

Our CIO, @Josh_Young_1 , recently appeared on the @DWildcatters podcast. We’ll be sharing some important clips below. The World Needs More Oil.

Small cap oil & gas equities continue to trade at a material discount to larger caps, despite some compelling advantages. Let’s revisit our updated investment thesis and address some important critiques.🧵 1/ Not only do small caps ($psce) offer compelling value, but they have also lagged larger cap oil & gas companies ($xle), the oil price ($wti) and the broader market ($spy) over the last 10 years, widening the discount:

Vital Energy is Deeply Discounted

"Having highlighted the disproportionate opportunity in smaller cap oil & gas equities in our 2023 Outlook, it is timely to share a portion of our investment thesis on a ... Bison portfolio position: Vital Energy $VTLE"
bisoninterests.com/content/f/vita… 1/ $vtle has under-performed comps

OPEC+ continues to miss oil production quotas, despite a recent cut. Total production for OPEC+ countries (excluding the OPEC exempt) was 38.3, falling short of the 40.1 quota by 1.8 MM bbl/d. Misses vs. quota are getting smaller vs. what they were prior to the cut. #oil #opec The total cumulative shortfall of oil supplied to market by OPEC+ is almost 1.1B bbls since we started sharing these metrics in January 2021.

This is a thread of our chief investment officer @Josh_Young_1's media appearances since late 2020, with some highlights noted. 🧵 1/ Market Huddle, October 2020

With increasing geological and technical limitations, the world is likely running out of cheap oil. The energy transition will likely lead to higher prices and higher returns for oil & gas investors. @TheMarketHuddle shorturl.at/bhmqr

There’s been quite a selloff in oil the past few months. Ironically, many of the same market participants who were excited about oil and gas prices and equities this spring and summer have since turnelid bearish—price drives narrative. 1/ As negativity increases so does the potential for outsized investment returns, particularly as underlying fundamentals improve. Persistent negative coverage in the media and declining net interest in oil in the commodities futures markets illustrate bearish sentiment:

OPEC+ missed it's October 2022 production quota by 3.31 MM bbls/d, according to third party surveys. 1/ Many smaller producers are definitively out of spare capacity, indicated by repeated production misses vs. quota. When removing the effects of large producers that may have some remaining spare capacity, we see that small producers have missed their quotas by more than 20%:

On October 5th, 2022, OPEC+ agreed to cut 2MM bbl/d from its monthly oil production quota, despite vocal opposition by the Biden Administration. For Bison white paper readers, this came as no surprise.

Here’s our analysis of the OPEC+ cuts, and implications for oil markets.🧵 (1/10) Lack of investment is a key driver of diminished OPEC+ spare capacity. Since we we first identified this in September 2021, it has translated to repeated production misses vs. quota by OPEC+. Most recently in September, OPEC+ missed its 42.2MM bbl/d quota by 3.57MM bbl/d:

Shortages of oil and gas are reverberating across world economies. High inflation is coinciding with Central Bank tightening and slowing economic activity. This could trigger a recession and potentially lower oil prices.

Here's why OPEC+ may support higher prices. 🧵 (1/22) Europe and parts of Asia are already facing an unprecedented energy crisis, with the price of natural gas in Europe (TTF) having increased 10x in 18 months:

Oil is in demand and on sale. Oil prices and equities are down significantly from their highs, despite strong demand, limited supply, and low valuations. Recession fears are overwhelming positive indications of a tight oil market and compelling investment opportunities.🧵 (1/20) Many observe market price movements and use them to filter and interpret fundamentals: price drives narrative. We have an alternative approach—focusing on fundamentals, “looking through” price movements and sentiment—and finding opportunity amid market turbulence.

OPEC+ oil production update. Still substantial deviation from output targets Total oil production in June for OPEC+ countries (excluding the OPEC exempt) was 38.11, falling short of the 40.81 quota by 2.70 MM bbl/d

OPEC 13 production increased by 0.51

Warren Buffett is buying #oil stocks: He recently revealed purchases of $26B of $cvx and $oxy. Below an analysis of Warren Buffett's history with oil and gas investments, and why recent purchases may indicate the best is yet to come for oil and gas equities. 🧵 (1/24) Buffett’s recent purchases of major stakes in oil and gas companies are an indicator of his optimism for the sector. General sentiment and positioning in oil and gas has lagged, as indicated by energy’s small portion of the overall equity market versus historical levels:

OPEC+ missed their #oil output target even more in May. Short thread with charts. 🧵 This was the worst month for OPEC+ since we started sharing comments on this. Highlights (all in MM bbl/d):

In the Golden Age of Oil and Gas Producers, one group stands out as particularly attractive for prospective investment: small cap oil and gas producers (E&Ps). A thread on valuation dislocations in small cap E&Ps and the associated investment opportunity.🧵 (1/8) Share prices for small cap E&Ps have languished vs. large cap E&Ps (XLE) and the broader market (SPY) since the last oil cycle high in 2014, despite improving fundamentals in line with their large cap counterparts:

Business has never been better for oil and gas producers.

Here's why share prices can move even higher from here, in this Golden Age of Oil and Gas Producers 🧵 (1/13) Improving fundamentals have renewed interest in oil and gas equities, and a once left-for-dead sector is seeing share prices rising. Yet even with recent outperformance, there's room to run as oil equities catch up to Oil and the broader market:

DUC Dilemma & 2022 Oil Market Outlook: A Thread

Despite the run-up in energy prices over the last year, we’re likely in the early innings of an o&g bull market. Here’s why we think 2022 could be another stellar year for oil and gas equities 🧵 (1/19) #Oil prices are moderate when benchmarked against #CPI #inflation, which may be understated

On buying the oil dip. While many are calling for the end of the oil and gas bull market, or attempting to time the market, we embrace this volatility and continue to buy discounted shares. A thread 🧵 (1/x) The recent pullback kicked off with the announcement of the novel “Omicron” variant. This started sentiment-driven, as with a lack of concrete data at the time of announcement, it was up to investors imaginations to forecast potential market impacts of spiking case counts

News about Kuwait struggling to raise production just hit the wire. Just in time for our OPEC+ compliance scorecard for November!

https://twitter.com/oxfordanalytica/status/1468591944880295937

OPEC+ under-produced their quota again in November #oott #oil #opec

Winter is (almost) here! Time for another energy crisis thread. Record power prices, coal and natural gas shortages (and even ration cards!), what else will unfold? 🧵 First up, surging Nordic power prices hit all time highs

https://twitter.com/SStapczynski/status/1463903152894185475?t=CjOiDKdDg7PxscL_l3eUwg&s=19

This is an ongoing thread about the global energy crisis. As the crisis unfolds, we will update here. Today, a Financial Times @FT article reports on China's electricity crisis further disrupting the global supply chain h/t @JKempEnergy ft.com/content/5174e5…