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The AZ - abc15 - Data Guru Profile picture
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25 Sep, 6 tweets, 2 min read
IMPORTANT:

The #azaudit final report includes party breakdown numbers for all of the matching they did.

I really wish this would have been included yesterday.

Note: The accuracy of these totals is still in question and the county is verifying this data.

A thread.
Finding 5.3.1 Mail-in Ballots voted from previous address:
Total claim: 23,344

Democratic: 39.5%
Republican: 33%
Unaffiliated: 26.5%
Libertarian: 1%
5.4 More ballots returned by voter than received
Total claim: 9,041

Democratic: 34.4%
Republican: 30.4%
Unaffiliated: 30.1%
Independent: 3.7%
Libertarian: 1.3%
5.5.3 In person voters who had moved out of Maricopa:
Total claim: 2,382

Republicans: 43.4%
Democratic: 25%
Unaffiliated: 26.9%
Independent: 3.3%
Libertarian: 1.2%
Other: 0.3%
5.5.4 Voters that moved out of state during the 29 day period:
Total claim: 2,081

Republican: 41.3%
Democratic: 31.6%
Unaffiliated: 22%
Independent: 4.3%
Libertarian: 0.8%
Other: .05%
5.5.5 Votes counted in excess of voters who voted
Total claim: 1,551

Republican: 42.3%
Democratic: 30%
Unaffiliated: 22.3%
Independent: 4.4%
Libertarian: 0.9%

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More from @Garrett_Archer

The AZ - abc15 - Data Guru Profile picture
25 Sep
To me the saddest thing about today is that nearly all the findings presented were more about ignorance on how elections and election systems work.

There is a lot of work to do in this space to educate people.
I don't even have a problem on its face with a voter analysis using something like Melissa data. But it needs to be done with the centralized system that includes date of birth and other data that would provide a harder match.
Then you wouldn't run into the problem that they're having of analyzing different files from different counties that were processed at different times.
Read 4 tweets
The AZ - abc15 - Data Guru Profile picture
24 Sep
A thread of Doug Logan's #azaudit presentation. It will include live tweets and fact checks when I have them.

Let's do this thing.
He starts with a description of the audit's chain of custody as well as ballot handling.
"All counters were Maricopa residents who voted in the last election."
Read 9 tweets
The AZ - abc15 - Data Guru Profile picture
24 Sep
.@abc15 obtained what is purported to be a draft copy of the #azaudit report from multiple independent sources.

The draft finds that the forensic hand count was not substantially different than the official results.
abc15.com/news/region-ph…
@abc15 The draft report alleges multiple inconsistencies in Maricopa county's voter registration were found when the files were bounced off of commercial data warehouses.
It also lists multiple areas in which election logs and data were removed from the EMS server prior to the start of the audit. The county maintains that the equipment was handed off with no changes made.
Read 8 tweets
The AZ - abc15 - Data Guru Profile picture
13 Sep
Someone just sent me a link to an entire @maricopacounty voter file that was posted online for public access by an outside the state GOP group.
or alleged GOP group. I've never heard of them and I haven't found any filings yet.
To be clear. It's the publicly available file. There are no restricted fields in there, but posting it online without a password is against statute.
Read 6 tweets
The AZ - abc15 - Data Guru Profile picture
7 Sep
A brief explainer on ballot styles and why they make injecting manufactured (aka bamboo) ballots into the system next to impossible.

A thread using maps of @maricopacounty

*all numbers are estimates using GIS union algorithm.
Ballot styles are what we refer to the different versions of the ballot. Every ballot has multiple races on it with different contests for different areas.

Maricopa would have 1 ballot style without cds, lds, cities, schools, etc...
At this point printing bamboo ballots would be pretty simple. Since everyone gets one ballot you can just load up on one style. Let's add congress.

There are now 8 ballot styles
Read 8 tweets
The AZ - abc15 - Data Guru Profile picture
7 Sep
Ok, as requested. I looked at @SKeshel analysis, which I will thread here.

All in all, pretty basic stuff. A lot of "this looks weird therefore it must be fraud."

1/*
Report starts with "Number of disputed ballots." Disputed by whom? There has been a ton of unsubstantiated speculation in this area with literally zero empirical evidence brought forth by those claiming disputed ballots.

2/*
Non-Citizen voters:
Keshel claims to have a survey of voters by Trump's legal team for the estimate of 36k to 237k non-citizens (that MoE).

They then go after the "fed-only" which was .4% of cast ballots in Maricopa (8,114). Here's how they broke

3/*
Read 10 tweets

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