.@abc15 obtained what is purported to be a draft copy of the #azaudit report from multiple independent sources.
The draft finds that the forensic hand count was not substantially different than the official results. abc15.com/news/region-ph…
@abc15 The draft report alleges multiple inconsistencies in Maricopa county's voter registration were found when the files were bounced off of commercial data warehouses.
It also lists multiple areas in which election logs and data were removed from the EMS server prior to the start of the audit. The county maintains that the equipment was handed off with no changes made.
There is little mention of the paper evaluation that took up the majority of the audit's time. Auditors assigned categories based on criticality of what they found.
All paper eval findings were marked N/A.
I'm not kidding when I said multiple sources either. I received this document or was told by someone they had it in their possession by no fewer than 10 people today. It is everywhere.
Unless the draft changes, one of the more interesting recommendations is for an executive level department to be created to handle election audits.
A note. Voter registration data only contains year of birth. So any matches would be on a portion of the first name , possible middle initial/name, last name, and year of birth. That is an inherently soft match. So further investigation is always warranted
Since everyone else is doing it here are the hand count numbers. The POTUS and Senate races do not reconcile, which makes no sense to me since they are literal paper ballots.
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To me the saddest thing about today is that nearly all the findings presented were more about ignorance on how elections and election systems work.
There is a lot of work to do in this space to educate people.
I don't even have a problem on its face with a voter analysis using something like Melissa data. But it needs to be done with the centralized system that includes date of birth and other data that would provide a harder match.
Then you wouldn't run into the problem that they're having of analyzing different files from different counties that were processed at different times.
*all numbers are estimates using GIS union algorithm.
Ballot styles are what we refer to the different versions of the ballot. Every ballot has multiple races on it with different contests for different areas.
Maricopa would have 1 ballot style without cds, lds, cities, schools, etc...
At this point printing bamboo ballots would be pretty simple. Since everyone gets one ballot you can just load up on one style. Let's add congress.
Report starts with "Number of disputed ballots." Disputed by whom? There has been a ton of unsubstantiated speculation in this area with literally zero empirical evidence brought forth by those claiming disputed ballots.
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Non-Citizen voters:
Keshel claims to have a survey of voters by Trump's legal team for the estimate of 36k to 237k non-citizens (that MoE).
They then go after the "fed-only" which was .4% of cast ballots in Maricopa (8,114). Here's how they broke