International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, May 17, 2023
This paper examines the role of fundamentals and speculators for the price of natural gas market ... more This paper examines the role of fundamentals and speculators for the price of natural gas market in Europe expressed in TTF front month index. The Granger causality test is used to investigate the relationship between variables determining supply and demand factors as well as activities of speculators expressed in futures TTF contracts held on ICE exchange, data reported by the European Securities and Markets Authority-ESMA. Existence of unidirectional granger causality was revealed running from prices of oil, temperatures towards prices of natural gas, bidirectional causality was found with prices of coal and emission allowance. No Granger causality was found between storages, PMI, positioning of speculators and natural gas price. Granger causality running from storages to speculators was identified. We concluded this indicates the market positioning of speculators is driven by fundamental factors and it is not the main factor driving the price of natural gas.
This paper examines the development of oil prices in the last years and its impact on energy secu... more This paper examines the development of oil prices in the last years and its impact on energy security of the southern Europe countries. The development of oil prices in the last years has a potential impact on all economies. Indeed the impact was positive for crude oil importing economies but in the other hand, negative impact on crude oil exporting economies. According to our analysis, the impact was positive on all southern Europe economies, regardless the scale of the impact. Off course the low crude oil prices improves the affordablity of energy supply, but for the energy security of southern Europe countries should be insured by other alternative energy resources, among them natural gas and renewable energy resources.
This paper examines the up normal move of crude oil prices in the last two decades and tries to r... more This paper examines the up normal move of crude oil prices in the last two decades and tries to relate it with the speculative trading of crude oil in the future markets. The speculators were in the centre of attention during the recent large price moves on the oil market. In this paper we attempted to empirically examine the way, oil speculators operate using the methodology of granger causality. We worked with 4 variables-the price of oil Brent, number of active oil rigs, weekly changes in crude oil stocks and financial positions of investors. Our results show that, on the time period we covered, there exist bidirectional granger causality between oil price and investment positioning of money managers. However we also found the existence of strong Granger causality running directly and indirectly from the fundamental indicators (number of oil rigs and oil stocks) towards money managers financial positions on the oil markets. This finding suggests that even if financial investors h...
This paper deals with regional integration in general and examines the intra-regional trade of se... more This paper deals with regional integration in general and examines the intra-regional trade of selected regional groups and trade blocks as a comparative analysis. We pay particular attention to the periods after the founding of regional integration ( NAFTA and MERCOSUR) and after the signing of the AFTA (regards ASEAN) as well as the crucial years prior to and following the Asian crisis and since 1990 to 2003 for EU as a result of processes of trade liberalization in the mentioned regional groups. Using the statistical analysis, we found that the ratio of intra-EU trade has decreased from 66 per cent in 1993 to 60 per cent in 2003. In terms of the ratio of intra-NAFTA trade, this has signed increasingly trend during the period 1994-2003 and reached about 7 per cent growth. Similar trend has signed the ratio of intra-ASEAN trade, which increased more speed than the whole ASEAN trade, particularly after the signing of AFTA. Different trend was noticed on intra-MERCOSUR trade, which r...
In the last couple of years food prices have registered significant and more and less sustainable... more In the last couple of years food prices have registered significant and more and less sustainable gains. Professional debate therefore has risen about this development and many of researchers seeing that food prices are majorly driven by crude oil prices as an input of production of the agriculture commodities. Others are seeing that food prices are driven by the rising demand of food commodities. The aim of this paper is to examine the long run relationship between crude oil and food prices and test whether there is an existing causality. Using the pairwise Granger causality and causality based on VECM, the results of investigation suggest that there is a long run relationship between crude oil price and prices of examined food commodities and the direction of long run causality is running from crude oil price to food prices.
The paper deals with some aspects of foreign trade impact of EU's custom union accession of S... more The paper deals with some aspects of foreign trade impact of EU's custom union accession of Slovakia. It issues from the Jacob Viner's hypothesis on trade creation and trade diversion, and proves this hypothesis through chosen instrumentarium. Analysis leads to conclusion that due to gradual removing of tariff trade barriers mainly of non-agricultural commodities in the framework of free trade area can lead not only to tendency of inter-industry, as Viner assumed, but still in more extent towards intra-industry trade tendency based on international technological specialization. This was the Slovakia's case. After the EU accession it is expected trade creation with non-preferential third countries in non-agricultural commodities and with trade diversion in agricultural commodities. Jacob Viner's hypothesis should be completed and wider interpreted.
This paper aims to analyze drivers of energy consumption in European Union (EU) in recent period ... more This paper aims to analyze drivers of energy consumption in European Union (EU) in recent period and identify the role of energy efficiency in it. We analyzed energy consumption using logarithmic mean Divisia index decomposition technique on three different levels of data aggregation for EU 28 countries in pre-crisis period (2004-2008) and crisis period (2008-2012). Our paper challenged the view that recent decline in energy consumption is caused by economic slowdown as improvements in energy intensity EU countries seems to be slowing down. We conclude that intensity effect was the major factor influencing energy consumption, while the contribution of activity effect representing the performance of economy was of less importance. The impact of structural effect was only of minor magnitude but interestingly has larger influence during the period of oil prices surge than in period of high oil prices. Our evidence also suggests that structural changes of economies towards service secto...
19th SGEM International Multidisciplinary Scientific GeoConference EXPO Proceedings19th, Science and Technologies in Geology, Exploration And Mining, 2019
This paper examines competitive advantage of Yemeni international trade in the market of the USA.... more This paper examines competitive advantage of Yemeni international trade in the market of the USA. Because Yemen is under the special situation from 2011 after the „arab spring“, in our analyses we will just use the 2 digits SITC for selected seven years from the period 2000-2011. For this purpose in our analysis we have used Balassa ́s index as a measure of competitive advantage (CTA).Though this approach is wroldwide used in literature, we aware that this index has some empirical lack but it give us a feature of gross sectoral competiveness of examined country or group of countries. According to our empirical analyses we found that Yemen has during the selected period an international trade competitive advantages, according to Balassa ́s index in the global level, in a few groups of commodities, which are concentrated in the energy and the phishing sectors.
This paper aims to analyze drivers of energy consumption in European Union (EU) in recent period ... more This paper aims to analyze drivers of energy consumption in European Union (EU) in recent period and identify the role of energy efficiency in it. We analyzed energy consumption using logarithmic mean Divisia index decomposition technique on three different levels of data aggregation for EU 28 countries in pre-crisis period (2004-2008) and crisis period (2008-2012). Our paper challenged the view that recent decline in energy consumption is caused by economic slowdown as improvements in energy intensity EU countries seems to be slowing down. We conclude that intensity effect was the major factor influencing energy consumption, while the contribution of activity effect representing the performance of economy was of less importance. The impact of structural effect was only of minor magnitude but interestingly has larger influence during the period of oil prices surge than in period of high oil prices. Our evidence also suggests that structural changes of economies towards service secto...
The paper examines driving forces of CO 2 emissions of four sectors of the Slovak economy. Our an... more The paper examines driving forces of CO 2 emissions of four sectors of the Slovak economy. Our analysis was based on extended Kaya Identity framework using Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) decompo sition technique. We applied chaining analysis for period 1997 – 2012 an d examined contributions of six effects. We found the primary mover of CO 2 emissions to be energy intensity effect (52%) followed by activity effect 25%) and e conomy structure effect (16%). The combined contribution of energy mix effect, emi ssion factors effect and population effect reached only approximately 7%, which implies that as much as 93 % CO2 emissions were determined to large extent by exoge nous impetuses. Our evidence therefore suggests that the policies aimed at structural changes of economies are the most effective tool to address issue o f CO2 emissions.
In majority, primary commodity prices are expressed in US Dollar, especially oil prices, not only... more In majority, primary commodity prices are expressed in US Dollar, especially oil prices, not only in the commodity markets but also in many international organizations, for example, in the IMF International Financial Statistics, or in terms of indices based on dollar prices. As such, oil prices are obviously affected by inflation as well as real developments, and also by the value of the US dollar exchange rate. Therefore, a change of both variables affects the international trade of all economies. In the case of oil prices, any change of them affects prices of other primary commodities, products and services, and subsequently macroeconomic indicators of oil exporting and importing countries. There is therefore a definite link between monetary policies and exchange rates among other factors and oil prices. And this is the subject of analysis in this chapter. The oil prices have signed a clearly fluctuated trend starting with the first through the second oil shock up to the present. According to Jalali-Naini &Manesh (2006) the crude oil price exhibits a high degree of volatility which varies significantly over time. Between 1987-2005, oil price volatility far exceeded that of other commodity prices. Behind that, there were many causes-the often mentioned one in the economic and energy-economic literature is the political (war conflicts) instability factor and subsequently the interruption of oil production or supply. It is clear that there are other factors influencing the oil prices-in the last decade, the increasing demand for oil in the emerging economies (China, India etc.), speculation in commodity markets and the weakening of the US Dollar. The main objective of this chapter is to examine the correlation between oil prices and the value of the US dollar (USD), and to draw some conclusions about the oil market. Considering that one of the causes of raising the oil prices is a drop of the value of US dollar, to what the extent the US dollar declined we will see via its exchange rate against the main currencies like Japanese (yen), and other European currencies and the subsequent impact on the oil prices. In addition to the qualitative analyses, as the research method we are using regression model, financial models, Granger causality and structural models to identify to what the www.intechopen.com
International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, May 17, 2023
This paper examines the role of fundamentals and speculators for the price of natural gas market ... more This paper examines the role of fundamentals and speculators for the price of natural gas market in Europe expressed in TTF front month index. The Granger causality test is used to investigate the relationship between variables determining supply and demand factors as well as activities of speculators expressed in futures TTF contracts held on ICE exchange, data reported by the European Securities and Markets Authority-ESMA. Existence of unidirectional granger causality was revealed running from prices of oil, temperatures towards prices of natural gas, bidirectional causality was found with prices of coal and emission allowance. No Granger causality was found between storages, PMI, positioning of speculators and natural gas price. Granger causality running from storages to speculators was identified. We concluded this indicates the market positioning of speculators is driven by fundamental factors and it is not the main factor driving the price of natural gas.
This paper examines the development of oil prices in the last years and its impact on energy secu... more This paper examines the development of oil prices in the last years and its impact on energy security of the southern Europe countries. The development of oil prices in the last years has a potential impact on all economies. Indeed the impact was positive for crude oil importing economies but in the other hand, negative impact on crude oil exporting economies. According to our analysis, the impact was positive on all southern Europe economies, regardless the scale of the impact. Off course the low crude oil prices improves the affordablity of energy supply, but for the energy security of southern Europe countries should be insured by other alternative energy resources, among them natural gas and renewable energy resources.
This paper examines the up normal move of crude oil prices in the last two decades and tries to r... more This paper examines the up normal move of crude oil prices in the last two decades and tries to relate it with the speculative trading of crude oil in the future markets. The speculators were in the centre of attention during the recent large price moves on the oil market. In this paper we attempted to empirically examine the way, oil speculators operate using the methodology of granger causality. We worked with 4 variables-the price of oil Brent, number of active oil rigs, weekly changes in crude oil stocks and financial positions of investors. Our results show that, on the time period we covered, there exist bidirectional granger causality between oil price and investment positioning of money managers. However we also found the existence of strong Granger causality running directly and indirectly from the fundamental indicators (number of oil rigs and oil stocks) towards money managers financial positions on the oil markets. This finding suggests that even if financial investors h...
This paper deals with regional integration in general and examines the intra-regional trade of se... more This paper deals with regional integration in general and examines the intra-regional trade of selected regional groups and trade blocks as a comparative analysis. We pay particular attention to the periods after the founding of regional integration ( NAFTA and MERCOSUR) and after the signing of the AFTA (regards ASEAN) as well as the crucial years prior to and following the Asian crisis and since 1990 to 2003 for EU as a result of processes of trade liberalization in the mentioned regional groups. Using the statistical analysis, we found that the ratio of intra-EU trade has decreased from 66 per cent in 1993 to 60 per cent in 2003. In terms of the ratio of intra-NAFTA trade, this has signed increasingly trend during the period 1994-2003 and reached about 7 per cent growth. Similar trend has signed the ratio of intra-ASEAN trade, which increased more speed than the whole ASEAN trade, particularly after the signing of AFTA. Different trend was noticed on intra-MERCOSUR trade, which r...
In the last couple of years food prices have registered significant and more and less sustainable... more In the last couple of years food prices have registered significant and more and less sustainable gains. Professional debate therefore has risen about this development and many of researchers seeing that food prices are majorly driven by crude oil prices as an input of production of the agriculture commodities. Others are seeing that food prices are driven by the rising demand of food commodities. The aim of this paper is to examine the long run relationship between crude oil and food prices and test whether there is an existing causality. Using the pairwise Granger causality and causality based on VECM, the results of investigation suggest that there is a long run relationship between crude oil price and prices of examined food commodities and the direction of long run causality is running from crude oil price to food prices.
The paper deals with some aspects of foreign trade impact of EU's custom union accession of S... more The paper deals with some aspects of foreign trade impact of EU's custom union accession of Slovakia. It issues from the Jacob Viner's hypothesis on trade creation and trade diversion, and proves this hypothesis through chosen instrumentarium. Analysis leads to conclusion that due to gradual removing of tariff trade barriers mainly of non-agricultural commodities in the framework of free trade area can lead not only to tendency of inter-industry, as Viner assumed, but still in more extent towards intra-industry trade tendency based on international technological specialization. This was the Slovakia's case. After the EU accession it is expected trade creation with non-preferential third countries in non-agricultural commodities and with trade diversion in agricultural commodities. Jacob Viner's hypothesis should be completed and wider interpreted.
This paper aims to analyze drivers of energy consumption in European Union (EU) in recent period ... more This paper aims to analyze drivers of energy consumption in European Union (EU) in recent period and identify the role of energy efficiency in it. We analyzed energy consumption using logarithmic mean Divisia index decomposition technique on three different levels of data aggregation for EU 28 countries in pre-crisis period (2004-2008) and crisis period (2008-2012). Our paper challenged the view that recent decline in energy consumption is caused by economic slowdown as improvements in energy intensity EU countries seems to be slowing down. We conclude that intensity effect was the major factor influencing energy consumption, while the contribution of activity effect representing the performance of economy was of less importance. The impact of structural effect was only of minor magnitude but interestingly has larger influence during the period of oil prices surge than in period of high oil prices. Our evidence also suggests that structural changes of economies towards service secto...
19th SGEM International Multidisciplinary Scientific GeoConference EXPO Proceedings19th, Science and Technologies in Geology, Exploration And Mining, 2019
This paper examines competitive advantage of Yemeni international trade in the market of the USA.... more This paper examines competitive advantage of Yemeni international trade in the market of the USA. Because Yemen is under the special situation from 2011 after the „arab spring“, in our analyses we will just use the 2 digits SITC for selected seven years from the period 2000-2011. For this purpose in our analysis we have used Balassa ́s index as a measure of competitive advantage (CTA).Though this approach is wroldwide used in literature, we aware that this index has some empirical lack but it give us a feature of gross sectoral competiveness of examined country or group of countries. According to our empirical analyses we found that Yemen has during the selected period an international trade competitive advantages, according to Balassa ́s index in the global level, in a few groups of commodities, which are concentrated in the energy and the phishing sectors.
This paper aims to analyze drivers of energy consumption in European Union (EU) in recent period ... more This paper aims to analyze drivers of energy consumption in European Union (EU) in recent period and identify the role of energy efficiency in it. We analyzed energy consumption using logarithmic mean Divisia index decomposition technique on three different levels of data aggregation for EU 28 countries in pre-crisis period (2004-2008) and crisis period (2008-2012). Our paper challenged the view that recent decline in energy consumption is caused by economic slowdown as improvements in energy intensity EU countries seems to be slowing down. We conclude that intensity effect was the major factor influencing energy consumption, while the contribution of activity effect representing the performance of economy was of less importance. The impact of structural effect was only of minor magnitude but interestingly has larger influence during the period of oil prices surge than in period of high oil prices. Our evidence also suggests that structural changes of economies towards service secto...
The paper examines driving forces of CO 2 emissions of four sectors of the Slovak economy. Our an... more The paper examines driving forces of CO 2 emissions of four sectors of the Slovak economy. Our analysis was based on extended Kaya Identity framework using Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) decompo sition technique. We applied chaining analysis for period 1997 – 2012 an d examined contributions of six effects. We found the primary mover of CO 2 emissions to be energy intensity effect (52%) followed by activity effect 25%) and e conomy structure effect (16%). The combined contribution of energy mix effect, emi ssion factors effect and population effect reached only approximately 7%, which implies that as much as 93 % CO2 emissions were determined to large extent by exoge nous impetuses. Our evidence therefore suggests that the policies aimed at structural changes of economies are the most effective tool to address issue o f CO2 emissions.
In majority, primary commodity prices are expressed in US Dollar, especially oil prices, not only... more In majority, primary commodity prices are expressed in US Dollar, especially oil prices, not only in the commodity markets but also in many international organizations, for example, in the IMF International Financial Statistics, or in terms of indices based on dollar prices. As such, oil prices are obviously affected by inflation as well as real developments, and also by the value of the US dollar exchange rate. Therefore, a change of both variables affects the international trade of all economies. In the case of oil prices, any change of them affects prices of other primary commodities, products and services, and subsequently macroeconomic indicators of oil exporting and importing countries. There is therefore a definite link between monetary policies and exchange rates among other factors and oil prices. And this is the subject of analysis in this chapter. The oil prices have signed a clearly fluctuated trend starting with the first through the second oil shock up to the present. According to Jalali-Naini &Manesh (2006) the crude oil price exhibits a high degree of volatility which varies significantly over time. Between 1987-2005, oil price volatility far exceeded that of other commodity prices. Behind that, there were many causes-the often mentioned one in the economic and energy-economic literature is the political (war conflicts) instability factor and subsequently the interruption of oil production or supply. It is clear that there are other factors influencing the oil prices-in the last decade, the increasing demand for oil in the emerging economies (China, India etc.), speculation in commodity markets and the weakening of the US Dollar. The main objective of this chapter is to examine the correlation between oil prices and the value of the US dollar (USD), and to draw some conclusions about the oil market. Considering that one of the causes of raising the oil prices is a drop of the value of US dollar, to what the extent the US dollar declined we will see via its exchange rate against the main currencies like Japanese (yen), and other European currencies and the subsequent impact on the oil prices. In addition to the qualitative analyses, as the research method we are using regression model, financial models, Granger causality and structural models to identify to what the www.intechopen.com
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