This session will explore contrasting perspectives on social engagement as an enabler of mitigati... more This session will explore contrasting perspectives on social engagement as an enabler of mitigation solutions.
<p>The role of humans significantly altering natural systems is undisputed ... more <p>The role of humans significantly altering natural systems is undisputed and human influence has been the dominant cause of global warming since the mid-20th century. If components of the Earth System are pushed beyond critical states, further large-scale impacts on human and ecological systems are likely. However, In the Anthropocene, humans are also seen as a force able to facilitate a global sustainability transformation. In other words, the individual becomes a focal point and, applying its inherent human agency, understood as the ability to shape life circumstances, opens up an analytical level incorporating choices and future action plans. The paper systematically reviews approaches that are relevant for operationalizing human agency in global human-environmental interaction models. The key aspects include representing inequalities in the resource and energy that are used to support lifestyles of different social groups, developing a hierarchical networked representation of social structure layers and rules for agent operation at the different levels, and finally building feedback and learning mechanisms that are used by agents to respond to changing environmental conditions and the behaviour of other agents.</p>
<p>The Earth’s population of seven billion consume varying amounts of... more <p>The Earth’s population of seven billion consume varying amounts of planetary resources with varying impacts on the environment.  We combine the analytical tools offered by the socio-ecological metabolism and class theory and propose a novel social stratification theory to identify the differences and hot spots in individual resource and energy use. The theory is applied to German society and we use per capita greenhouse gas emissions as a proxy for resource and energy use. We use socio-metabolic profiles of individuals from an economic, social and cultural perspective to investigate resource intensive lifestyles. The results show large disparities and inequalities in emission patterns in German society. For example, the greenhouse gas emissions in the lowest and highest emission classes can differ by a magnitude of ten. Income, education, age, gender and regional differences (FRG vs. GDR) result in distinct emission profiles. Class differentiation is also noted as economic, cultural and social factors influence individual carbon footprints. We also analyze the role of digital technologies, regarding resource and energy consumption, as a proxy for cultural capital. Highlighting inequalities within societies is a step towards downscaling carbon emission reduction targets that are key to avoid transgressing climate change planetary boundary. We discuss the results in the context of climate policy implications as well as behavioral changes that are needed to meet climate policy objectives.</p>
<div> <p>Analysis of Earth system dynamics in the Ant... more <div> <p>Analysis of Earth system dynamics in the Anthropocene requires explicitly taking into account the increasing magnitude of processes operating in human societies, their cultures, economies and technosphere and their growing feedback entanglement with those in the physical, chemical and biological systems of the planet. However, current state-of-the-art Earth system models do not represent dynamic human societies and their feedback interactions with the biogeophysical Earth system and macroeconomic integrated assessment models typically do so only with limited scope. This paper (i) proposes design principles for constructing world–Earth models (WEMs) for Earth system analysis of the Anthropocene, i.e., models of social (world)–ecological (Earth) coevolution on up to planetary scales, and (ii) presents the copan:CORE open simulation modeling framework for developing, composing and analyzing such WEMs based on the proposed principles. The framework provides a modular structure to flexibly construct and study WEMs. These can contain biophysical (e.g., carbon cycle dynamics), socio-metabolic or economic (e.g., economic growth or energy system changes), and sociocultural processes (e.g., voting on climate policies or changing social norms) and their feedback interactions, and they are based on elementary entity types, e.g., grid cells and social systems. Thereby, copan:CORE enables the epistemic flexibility needed for contributions towards Earth system analysis of the Anthropocene given the large diversity of competing theories and methodologies used for describing socio-metabolic or economic and sociocultural processes in the Earth system by various fields and schools of thought. To illustrate the capabilities of the framework, we present an exemplary and highly stylized WEM implemented in copan:CORE that illustrates how endogenizing sociocultural processes and feedbacks such as voting on climate policies based on socially learned environmental awareness could fundamentally change macroscopic model outcomes.</p> <p><strong>References</strong></p> <p>Donges, J.F. et al.: Taxonomies for structuring models for World-Earth system analysis of the Anthropocene: subsystems, their interactions and social-ecological feedback loops, Earth Syst. Dynam. Disc., in review (2021), DOI: 10.5194/esd-2018-27.</p> <p>Donges, J. F. and Heitzig,et al..: Earth system modeling with endogenous and dynamic human societies: the copan:CORE open World–Earth modeling framework, Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 395–413, 2020.</p> </div>
Analysis of Earth system dynamics in the Anthropocene requires explicitly taking into account the... more Analysis of Earth system dynamics in the Anthropocene requires explicitly taking into account the increasing magnitude of processes operating in human societies, their cultures, economies and technosphere and their growing feedback entanglement with those in the physical, chemical and biological systems of the planet. However, current state-of-the-art Earth system models do not represent dynamic human societies and their feedback interactions with the biogeophysical Earth system and macroeconomic integrated assessment models typically do so only with limited scope. This paper (i) proposes design principles for constructing world-Earth models (WEMs) for Earth system analysis of the Anthropocene, i.e., models of social (world)-ecological (Earth) coevolution on up to planetary scales, and (ii) presents the copan:CORE open simulation modeling framework for developing, composing and analyzing such WEMs based on the proposed principles. The framework provides a modular structure to flexibly construct and study WEMs. These can contain biophysical (e.g., carbon cycle dynamics), socio-metabolic or economic (e.g., economic growth or energy system changes), and sociocultural processes (e.g., voting on climate policies or changing social norms) and their feedback interactions, and they are based on elementary entity types, e.g., grid cells and social systems. Thereby, copan:CORE enables the epistemic flexibility needed for contributions towards Earth system analysis of the Anthropocene given the large diversity of competing theories and methodologies used for describing socio-metabolic or economic and sociocultural processes in the Earth system by various fields and schools of thought. To illustrate the capabilities of the framework, we present an exemplary and highly stylized WEM implemented in copan:CORE that illustrates how endogenizing sociocultural processes and feedbacks such as voting on climate policies based on socially learned environmental awareness could fundamentally change macroscopic model outcomes.
Possible future trajectories of the Earth system in the Anthropocene are determined by the increa... more Possible future trajectories of the Earth system in the Anthropocene are determined by the increasing entanglement of processes operating in the physical, chemical and biological systems of the planet, as well as in human societies, their cultures and economies. Here, we introduce the copan:CORE open source software library that provides a framework for developing, composing and running World-Earth models, i.e., models of social-ecological co-evolution up to planetary scales. It is an object-oriented software package written in Python designed for different user roles. It allows model end users to run parallel simulations with already available and tested models. Furthermore, model composers are enabled to easily implement new models by plugging together a broad range of model components, such as opinion formation on social networks, generic carbon cycle dynamics, or simple vegetation growth. For the sake of a modular structure, each provided component specifies a meaningful yet minimal collection of closely related processes. These processes can be formulated in terms of various process types, such as ordinary differential equations, explicit or implicit functions, as well as steps or events of deterministic or stochastic fashion. In addition to the already included variety of different components in copan:CORE, model developers can extend the framework with additional components that are based on elementary entity types, i.e., grid cells, individuals and social systems, or the fundamental process taxa environment, social metabolism, and culture. To showcase possible usage we present an exemplary World-Earth model that combines a variety of model components and interactions thereof. As the framework allows a simple activation and deactivation of certain components and related processes, users can test for their specific effects on modeling results and evaluate model robustness in a controlled way. Hence, copan:CORE allows developing process-based models of global change and sustainable development in planetary social-ecological systems and thus fosters a better understanding of crucial mechanisms governing the co-evolutionary dynamics between societies and the natural environment. Due to its modular structure, the framework enhances the development and application of stylized models in Earth 1
This paper employs laboratory and framed field experiments to investigate factors influencing the... more This paper employs laboratory and framed field experiments to investigate factors influencing the behavior of irrigation users, with an emphasis on the effects of exogenously and endogenously designed allocation rules. The experiments were conducted with 36 groups of farmers and students from China, India and Vietnam. The results show that physically asymmetric access to water as a resource creates an asymmetric distribution of investments, harvests and revenues that favors upstream users. Exogenously designed allocation rules appear able to equalize the distribution of revenue between upstream and downstream users, but are also likely to reduce the volume of investment and generated revenue. Meanwhile, communication between irrigation users with the possibility of endogenously designed rules appears to have a stronger equalizing effect on asymmetric resource access but also increases overall investment, which then increases water availability in a hypothetical irrigation channel. T...
Citizen-driven Renewable Energy (RE) projects of various kinds, known collectively as community e... more Citizen-driven Renewable Energy (RE) projects of various kinds, known collectively as community energy (CE), have an important part to play in the worldwide transition to cleaner energy systems. On the basis of evidence from literature review and an exploratory survey of 8 European countries, we investigate European CE through the lens of Social Innovation (SI). Broadly, three main phases of SI in CE can be identified. The environmental movements of the 1960s and the “oil shocks” of the 1970s provided the catalyst for a series of innovative societal responses around energy and self-sufficiency. These first wave CE innovations included cooperatives (e.g. in Sweden and Germany) who financed and managed risks for RE developments in the absence of support from governments and banks. A second wave of SI relates to the mainstreaming of RE and associated government support mechanisms. In this phase, with some important exceptions, successful CE initiatives were mainly confined to those cou...
The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region emerges as one of the hot spots for worsening extr... more The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region emerges as one of the hot spots for worsening extreme heat, drought and aridity conditions under climate change. A synthesis of peer-reviewed literature from 2010 to date and own modeling work on biophysical impacts of climate change on selected sectors shows that the region is highly affected by present and future climate change. These biophysical impacts paired with other pressures and a lack of resilience in some countries cause high vulnerabilities within these sectors and for social dimensions in the MENA region.
por que um mundo 4 °C mais quente precisa ser evitado Diminuir calor o Novembro de 2012 Resumo Ex... more por que um mundo 4 °C mais quente precisa ser evitado Diminuir calor o Novembro de 2012 Resumo Executivo Um relatório do Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research e da Climate Analytics para o Banco Mundial B
Por qué se debe evitar un planeta 4°C más cálido Bajemos temperatura la Resumen ejecutivo EmBaRgo... more Por qué se debe evitar un planeta 4°C más cálido Bajemos temperatura la Resumen ejecutivo EmBaRgo EstRiCto hasta las 00.01, hoRa gmt, dEl lunEs 19 dE noviEmBRE dE 2012
For full bibliographic references please refer to the complete report. Nothing herein shall const... more For full bibliographic references please refer to the complete report. Nothing herein shall constitute or be considered to be a limitation upon or waiver of the privileges and immunities of The World Bank, all of which are specifically reserved.
Nothing herein shall constitute or be considered to be a limitation upon or waiver of the privile... more Nothing herein shall constitute or be considered to be a limitation upon or waiver of the privileges and immunities of The World Bank, all of which are specifically reserved.
This session will explore contrasting perspectives on social engagement as an enabler of mitigati... more This session will explore contrasting perspectives on social engagement as an enabler of mitigation solutions.
<p>The role of humans significantly altering natural systems is undisputed ... more <p>The role of humans significantly altering natural systems is undisputed and human influence has been the dominant cause of global warming since the mid-20th century. If components of the Earth System are pushed beyond critical states, further large-scale impacts on human and ecological systems are likely. However, In the Anthropocene, humans are also seen as a force able to facilitate a global sustainability transformation. In other words, the individual becomes a focal point and, applying its inherent human agency, understood as the ability to shape life circumstances, opens up an analytical level incorporating choices and future action plans. The paper systematically reviews approaches that are relevant for operationalizing human agency in global human-environmental interaction models. The key aspects include representing inequalities in the resource and energy that are used to support lifestyles of different social groups, developing a hierarchical networked representation of social structure layers and rules for agent operation at the different levels, and finally building feedback and learning mechanisms that are used by agents to respond to changing environmental conditions and the behaviour of other agents.</p>
<p>The Earth’s population of seven billion consume varying amounts of... more <p>The Earth’s population of seven billion consume varying amounts of planetary resources with varying impacts on the environment.  We combine the analytical tools offered by the socio-ecological metabolism and class theory and propose a novel social stratification theory to identify the differences and hot spots in individual resource and energy use. The theory is applied to German society and we use per capita greenhouse gas emissions as a proxy for resource and energy use. We use socio-metabolic profiles of individuals from an economic, social and cultural perspective to investigate resource intensive lifestyles. The results show large disparities and inequalities in emission patterns in German society. For example, the greenhouse gas emissions in the lowest and highest emission classes can differ by a magnitude of ten. Income, education, age, gender and regional differences (FRG vs. GDR) result in distinct emission profiles. Class differentiation is also noted as economic, cultural and social factors influence individual carbon footprints. We also analyze the role of digital technologies, regarding resource and energy consumption, as a proxy for cultural capital. Highlighting inequalities within societies is a step towards downscaling carbon emission reduction targets that are key to avoid transgressing climate change planetary boundary. We discuss the results in the context of climate policy implications as well as behavioral changes that are needed to meet climate policy objectives.</p>
<div> <p>Analysis of Earth system dynamics in the Ant... more <div> <p>Analysis of Earth system dynamics in the Anthropocene requires explicitly taking into account the increasing magnitude of processes operating in human societies, their cultures, economies and technosphere and their growing feedback entanglement with those in the physical, chemical and biological systems of the planet. However, current state-of-the-art Earth system models do not represent dynamic human societies and their feedback interactions with the biogeophysical Earth system and macroeconomic integrated assessment models typically do so only with limited scope. This paper (i) proposes design principles for constructing world–Earth models (WEMs) for Earth system analysis of the Anthropocene, i.e., models of social (world)–ecological (Earth) coevolution on up to planetary scales, and (ii) presents the copan:CORE open simulation modeling framework for developing, composing and analyzing such WEMs based on the proposed principles. The framework provides a modular structure to flexibly construct and study WEMs. These can contain biophysical (e.g., carbon cycle dynamics), socio-metabolic or economic (e.g., economic growth or energy system changes), and sociocultural processes (e.g., voting on climate policies or changing social norms) and their feedback interactions, and they are based on elementary entity types, e.g., grid cells and social systems. Thereby, copan:CORE enables the epistemic flexibility needed for contributions towards Earth system analysis of the Anthropocene given the large diversity of competing theories and methodologies used for describing socio-metabolic or economic and sociocultural processes in the Earth system by various fields and schools of thought. To illustrate the capabilities of the framework, we present an exemplary and highly stylized WEM implemented in copan:CORE that illustrates how endogenizing sociocultural processes and feedbacks such as voting on climate policies based on socially learned environmental awareness could fundamentally change macroscopic model outcomes.</p> <p><strong>References</strong></p> <p>Donges, J.F. et al.: Taxonomies for structuring models for World-Earth system analysis of the Anthropocene: subsystems, their interactions and social-ecological feedback loops, Earth Syst. Dynam. Disc., in review (2021), DOI: 10.5194/esd-2018-27.</p> <p>Donges, J. F. and Heitzig,et al..: Earth system modeling with endogenous and dynamic human societies: the copan:CORE open World–Earth modeling framework, Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 395–413, 2020.</p> </div>
Analysis of Earth system dynamics in the Anthropocene requires explicitly taking into account the... more Analysis of Earth system dynamics in the Anthropocene requires explicitly taking into account the increasing magnitude of processes operating in human societies, their cultures, economies and technosphere and their growing feedback entanglement with those in the physical, chemical and biological systems of the planet. However, current state-of-the-art Earth system models do not represent dynamic human societies and their feedback interactions with the biogeophysical Earth system and macroeconomic integrated assessment models typically do so only with limited scope. This paper (i) proposes design principles for constructing world-Earth models (WEMs) for Earth system analysis of the Anthropocene, i.e., models of social (world)-ecological (Earth) coevolution on up to planetary scales, and (ii) presents the copan:CORE open simulation modeling framework for developing, composing and analyzing such WEMs based on the proposed principles. The framework provides a modular structure to flexibly construct and study WEMs. These can contain biophysical (e.g., carbon cycle dynamics), socio-metabolic or economic (e.g., economic growth or energy system changes), and sociocultural processes (e.g., voting on climate policies or changing social norms) and their feedback interactions, and they are based on elementary entity types, e.g., grid cells and social systems. Thereby, copan:CORE enables the epistemic flexibility needed for contributions towards Earth system analysis of the Anthropocene given the large diversity of competing theories and methodologies used for describing socio-metabolic or economic and sociocultural processes in the Earth system by various fields and schools of thought. To illustrate the capabilities of the framework, we present an exemplary and highly stylized WEM implemented in copan:CORE that illustrates how endogenizing sociocultural processes and feedbacks such as voting on climate policies based on socially learned environmental awareness could fundamentally change macroscopic model outcomes.
Possible future trajectories of the Earth system in the Anthropocene are determined by the increa... more Possible future trajectories of the Earth system in the Anthropocene are determined by the increasing entanglement of processes operating in the physical, chemical and biological systems of the planet, as well as in human societies, their cultures and economies. Here, we introduce the copan:CORE open source software library that provides a framework for developing, composing and running World-Earth models, i.e., models of social-ecological co-evolution up to planetary scales. It is an object-oriented software package written in Python designed for different user roles. It allows model end users to run parallel simulations with already available and tested models. Furthermore, model composers are enabled to easily implement new models by plugging together a broad range of model components, such as opinion formation on social networks, generic carbon cycle dynamics, or simple vegetation growth. For the sake of a modular structure, each provided component specifies a meaningful yet minimal collection of closely related processes. These processes can be formulated in terms of various process types, such as ordinary differential equations, explicit or implicit functions, as well as steps or events of deterministic or stochastic fashion. In addition to the already included variety of different components in copan:CORE, model developers can extend the framework with additional components that are based on elementary entity types, i.e., grid cells, individuals and social systems, or the fundamental process taxa environment, social metabolism, and culture. To showcase possible usage we present an exemplary World-Earth model that combines a variety of model components and interactions thereof. As the framework allows a simple activation and deactivation of certain components and related processes, users can test for their specific effects on modeling results and evaluate model robustness in a controlled way. Hence, copan:CORE allows developing process-based models of global change and sustainable development in planetary social-ecological systems and thus fosters a better understanding of crucial mechanisms governing the co-evolutionary dynamics between societies and the natural environment. Due to its modular structure, the framework enhances the development and application of stylized models in Earth 1
This paper employs laboratory and framed field experiments to investigate factors influencing the... more This paper employs laboratory and framed field experiments to investigate factors influencing the behavior of irrigation users, with an emphasis on the effects of exogenously and endogenously designed allocation rules. The experiments were conducted with 36 groups of farmers and students from China, India and Vietnam. The results show that physically asymmetric access to water as a resource creates an asymmetric distribution of investments, harvests and revenues that favors upstream users. Exogenously designed allocation rules appear able to equalize the distribution of revenue between upstream and downstream users, but are also likely to reduce the volume of investment and generated revenue. Meanwhile, communication between irrigation users with the possibility of endogenously designed rules appears to have a stronger equalizing effect on asymmetric resource access but also increases overall investment, which then increases water availability in a hypothetical irrigation channel. T...
Citizen-driven Renewable Energy (RE) projects of various kinds, known collectively as community e... more Citizen-driven Renewable Energy (RE) projects of various kinds, known collectively as community energy (CE), have an important part to play in the worldwide transition to cleaner energy systems. On the basis of evidence from literature review and an exploratory survey of 8 European countries, we investigate European CE through the lens of Social Innovation (SI). Broadly, three main phases of SI in CE can be identified. The environmental movements of the 1960s and the “oil shocks” of the 1970s provided the catalyst for a series of innovative societal responses around energy and self-sufficiency. These first wave CE innovations included cooperatives (e.g. in Sweden and Germany) who financed and managed risks for RE developments in the absence of support from governments and banks. A second wave of SI relates to the mainstreaming of RE and associated government support mechanisms. In this phase, with some important exceptions, successful CE initiatives were mainly confined to those cou...
The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region emerges as one of the hot spots for worsening extr... more The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region emerges as one of the hot spots for worsening extreme heat, drought and aridity conditions under climate change. A synthesis of peer-reviewed literature from 2010 to date and own modeling work on biophysical impacts of climate change on selected sectors shows that the region is highly affected by present and future climate change. These biophysical impacts paired with other pressures and a lack of resilience in some countries cause high vulnerabilities within these sectors and for social dimensions in the MENA region.
por que um mundo 4 °C mais quente precisa ser evitado Diminuir calor o Novembro de 2012 Resumo Ex... more por que um mundo 4 °C mais quente precisa ser evitado Diminuir calor o Novembro de 2012 Resumo Executivo Um relatório do Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research e da Climate Analytics para o Banco Mundial B
Por qué se debe evitar un planeta 4°C más cálido Bajemos temperatura la Resumen ejecutivo EmBaRgo... more Por qué se debe evitar un planeta 4°C más cálido Bajemos temperatura la Resumen ejecutivo EmBaRgo EstRiCto hasta las 00.01, hoRa gmt, dEl lunEs 19 dE noviEmBRE dE 2012
For full bibliographic references please refer to the complete report. Nothing herein shall const... more For full bibliographic references please refer to the complete report. Nothing herein shall constitute or be considered to be a limitation upon or waiver of the privileges and immunities of The World Bank, all of which are specifically reserved.
Nothing herein shall constitute or be considered to be a limitation upon or waiver of the privile... more Nothing herein shall constitute or be considered to be a limitation upon or waiver of the privileges and immunities of The World Bank, all of which are specifically reserved.
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2020
Safely achieving the goals of the Paris Climate Agreement requires a worldwide transformation to ... more Safely achieving the goals of the Paris Climate Agreement requires a worldwide transformation to carbon-neutral societies within the next 30 years. Accelerated technological progress and policy implementations are required to deliver emissions reductions at rates sufficiently fast to avoid crossing dangerous tipping points in the Earth's climate system. Here, we discuss and evaluate the potential of social tipping interventions (STIs) that can activate contagious processes of rapidly spreading technologies, behaviors, social norms, and structural reorganization within their functional domains that we refer to as social tipping elements (STEs). STEs are subdomains of the planetary socioeconomic system where the required disruptive change may take place and lead to a sufficiently fast reduction in anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. The results are based on online expert elicitation, a subsequent expert workshop, and a literature review. The STIs that could trigger the tipping of STE subsystems include 1) removing fossil-fuel subsidies and incentivizing decentralized energy generation (STE1, energy production and storage systems), 2) building carbon-neutral cities (STE2, human settlements), 3) divesting from assets linked to fossil fuels (STE3, financial markets), 4) revealing the moral implications of fossil fuels (STE4, norms and value systems), 5) strengthening climate education and engagement (STE5, education system), and 6) disclosing information on greenhouse gas emissions (STE6, information feedbacks). Our research reveals important areas of focus for larger-scale empirical and modeling efforts to better understand the potentials of harnessing social tipping dynamics for climate change mitigation.
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