The budgetary implications of an aging population in the OECD are often considered dire. This stu... more The budgetary implications of an aging population in the OECD are often considered dire. This study argues that this need not be the case provided that older educated workers are more innovative than their younger counterparts, and that workers with tertiary education stay in the labor force until their 60s. Using a panel of 21 OECD countries over the period 1870-2009, this paper estimates the productivity growth effects of education for different age groups, through the channels of innovation and imitation. The results show that educated workers are highly innovative and that the propensity to innovate increases sharply with age.
This paper tests Jared Diamond’s influential theory that an earlier transition from a hunter-gath... more This paper tests Jared Diamond’s influential theory that an earlier transition from a hunter-gatherer society to agricultural production induces higher levels of technology adoption. Using a proxy for the geographic diffusion barriers of Neolithic technology and an index of biogeographic endowments to isolate the exogenous component of the timing of agricultural transition, the findings indicate that countries that experienced earlier transitions to agriculture were subsequently more capable of adopting new technologies in 1000 BC, 1 AD and 1500 AD. These results lend strong support to Diamond’s hypothesis.
It is well established in the literature that financial development (FD) is conducive to growth, ... more It is well established in the literature that financial development (FD) is conducive to growth, and yet the channels through which FD affects growth are not well understood. Using a unique new panel data set for 21 OECD countries over the past 140 years, this paper examines the extent to which FD transmits to growth through ideas production, savings, fixed investment, and schooling. Unionization and agricultural share are used as instruments for FD. The empirical results show that FD influences growth through all four channels. In particular, ideas production is found to be the most important channel through which FD impacts on growth.
The importance of the length of state history for understanding variations in income levels and g... more The importance of the length of state history for understanding variations in income levels and growth rates across countries has received a lot of attention in the recent literature on long-run comparative development. The literature, however, is silent about its origins. This paper explores the determinants of statehood by considering the potential roles of an early transition to fully-fledged agricultural production, the adoption of state-of-the-art military innovations, and the opportunity for economic interaction with the regional economic leader. The results demonstrate that only the association between economic interaction and the rise and development of the state is statistically robust.
Traditional export models fall short of explaining the marked increase in exports of the Asian mi... more Traditional export models fall short of explaining the marked increase in exports of the Asian miracle economies in the post-WWII period. A model showing that exports are driven by innovations, innovative competitiveness, demand, and price competitiveness is estimated for China, India, Korea, Japan, Singapore and Taiwan over the period 1953-2010. The results demonstrate that innovation stocks and competitiveness are important determinants behind their success. Furthermore, innovation stocks and innovative competitiveness are shown to be less influential for export growth in China and India and their export booms have been fueled by process rather than product innovation.
This paper attempts to shed some light on the role of financial sector policies in generating new... more This paper attempts to shed some light on the role of financial sector policies in generating new knowledge, drawing on the experience of one of the fastest growing and largest developing countries. Using time series data for India over the period 1963–2005, the results indicate that interest rate restraints help generate ideas. Other financial repressionist policies, in the form of high reserve and liquidity requirements, as well as significant directed credit controls, appear to have a dampening effect on ideas production. These results lend some support to the argument that some form of financial sector reforms may help stimulate economic growth via increasing technological innovation.
This paper explores the determinants of financial development by focusing on the role played by b... more This paper explores the determinants of financial development by focusing on the role played by barriers to the diffusion of financial technology. These barriers are measured using human genetic distance from the technology frontier. The results based on cross-sectional data for 123 countries suggest that genetic distance to the global frontier has an economically and statistically significant effect on financial development, in that countries that are genetically far from the technology leader tend to have lower levels of financial development. Genetic distance is found to have the largest effect, even after controlling for other determinants of financial development established in the literature. These findings indicate that cultural barriers to the diffusion of financial technology across borders impact financial development by influencing the follower countries’ ability to adopt and adapt innovations from the frontier.
This article examines the influence of quality-adjusted educational attainment on growth and test... more This article examines the influence of quality-adjusted educational attainment on growth and tests whether it facilitates the transfer of technology developed at the frontier for a panel of 60 countries. Using outcomes of pathogen stress as instruments, the results show that quality-adjusted educational attainment and its interaction with distance to the frontier play important roles for growth.
We demonstrate that existing differences in financial development between countries can be explai... more We demonstrate that existing differences in financial development between countries can be explained by the cumulative variations in their levels of state experience since 1 AD. This dimension of early historical development has not been considered so far in studies that analyze the determinants of financial development. The estimation allows for all major theories established in the literature as possible explanations for the disparity of financial development across the globe. Significance of state antiquity is robust to the use of alternative indicators of financial development, the consideration of different lengths and periods of statehood, and controlling for a range of variables or country characteristics. Our results highlight the important role of statehood in propelling financial system development, and thus provide some support to the view that historically determined differences in the early-start developmental advantage provide the basis for explaining the fundamental sources of variations in financial development between countries today.
We study the role of institutional development as a causal mechanism of history affecting current... more We study the role of institutional development as a causal mechanism of history affecting current economic performance. Several indicators capturing different dimensions of early development in 1500 AD are used to remove the endogenous component of the variations in institutions. These indicators are adjusted with large-scale movements of people across international borders using the global migration matrix of Putterman and Weil (2010) to account for the fact that the ancestors of a population have facilitated the diffusion of knowledge when they migrate. The exogenous component of institutions due to historical development is found to be a significant determinant of current output. By demonstrating that the relationship between early development and current economic performance works through the channel of institutions and that better institutions can be traced back to historical factors, the results of this paper shed some light on how history has played a role in shaping long-run comparative development.
The ideas production function is at the heart of endogenous growth theory. Using data for Europe,... more The ideas production function is at the heart of endogenous growth theory. Using data for Europe, its offshoots, and the Asian Tiger economies over the period from 1870 to 2010, this paper provides direct estimates of an ideas production function that explicitly distinguishes between the first- and second-generation endogenous growth models while allowing for human capital and international knowledge spillovers through various channels. The estimates show strong intertemporal and cross-country knowledge spillovers, provide robust support for Schumpeterian growth theory, and suggest that human capital and some channels of international knowledge spillover are influential for ideas production.
Theory, historiography, and empirical evidence suggest that agriculture is the key to economic de... more Theory, historiography, and empirical evidence suggest that agriculture is the key to economic development. This article examines the extent to which productivity advances in British agriculture during the period 1620–1850 were driven by technological progress. Measuring technology by patents and new book titles on agricultural methods, the results are consistent with endogenous growth theory, indicating that technological progress has played a significant role in agricultural productivity advances.
This paper examines the importance of the domestic research and development stock and foreign kno... more This paper examines the importance of the domestic research and development stock and foreign knowledge spillovers on total factor productivity for six Asian miracle economies over the period from 1955 to 2006. The productivity effects of international knowledge spillovers through the following channels are considered: imports, exports, inward foreign direct investment, patents, geographical proximity, and the general channel. The general channel is a transmission mechanism where knowledge spillovers occur automatically and do not pass through any specific channel. The estimates show that knowledge has been transmitted through all the channels considered but that the import channel and the general channel have probably been the most important ones for the Asian miracle economies.
Although ideas production plays a critical role for growth, there has been only a modicum of rese... more Although ideas production plays a critical role for growth, there has been only a modicum of research on the role played by financial forces in fostering new inventions. Drawing on Schumpeterian growth theory, this paper tests the roles of risk capital and private credit in stimulating knowledge production. Using panel data for 77 countries over the period 1965–2009, we find that countries with more developed financial systems are more innovative. A stronger patent protection framework, on the other hand, curbs innovative production.
Using data for six Asian miracle economies over the period
from 1953 to 2006, this paper examine... more Using data for six Asian miracle economies over the period
from 1953 to 2006, this paper examines the extent to which growth has been driven by R&D and tests which second-generation endogenous growth model is most consistent with the data. The results give strong support to Schumpeterian growth theory but only limited support to semiendogenous growth theory. Furthermore, it is shown that R&D has played a key role for growth in the Asian miracle economies.
In this article, we provide a comparative account of the evolution of private saving in India and... more In this article, we provide a comparative account of the evolution of private saving in India and Malaysia, and analyze how policy changes in the financial sector and pension system help explain differences in their saving performance. Using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds estimation procedure, we find a fairly robust long-run relationship between private saving and its determinants in both countries. Consistent with the predictions made in the life cycle model, our results indicate that higher income growth stimulates private saving and an increase in age dependency retards private saving. The results provide some support for the hypothesis that financial liberalization results in lower private saving in both countries. The evidence also indicates that expected pension benefits tend to stimulate private saving in India, but that the reverse is found in Malaysia.
This paper attempts to identify the key factors behind Malaysia’s remarkable savings performance.... more This paper attempts to identify the key factors behind Malaysia’s remarkable savings performance. Drawing on the life cycle theory, the saving function is estimated by incorporating other relevant structural features and institutional settings of the Malaysian economy into the specification. Particular emphasis has been placed on the roles of financial factors in mobilizing funds in the private sector. The results suggest that financial deepening and increased banking density tend to encourage private savings. Development of insurance markets and liberalization of the financial system, however, tend to exert a dampening effect on private savings.
The main objective of this paper is to explore the determinants of private consumption growth vol... more The main objective of this paper is to explore the determinants of private consumption growth volatility in India, focusing on the role of financial sector policies. Using data for India over the period 1950–2005, the results show that the implementation of financial repressionist policies is strongly associated with lower consumption volatility. The results remain robust after controlling for a wide range of macroeconomic shocks and variables. The presence of a threshold effect implies that the benefits of financial reforms in reducing consumption volatility can only be reaped when the financial system becomes sufficiently liberalized. The results also indicate that the presence of a more open financial system may serve to dampen fluctuations in private consumption.
This paper focuses on examining the effects of financial development and liberalization on knowle... more This paper focuses on examining the effects of financial development and liberalization on knowledge accumulation. The results consistently show that while financial development facilitates the accumulation of new ideas, the implementation of financial reform policies is negatively associated with it. The undesirable effects of financial liberalization are found to operate through the triggering of crises and volatility in the financial system. There is also evidence supporting the hypothesis that financial liberalization reallocates talent from the innovative sector to the financial system, thus retarding technological deepening. Moreover, the findings also suggest that increased R&D activity and the presence of a stronger intellectual property rights protection framework tend to have beneficial effects on knowledge accumulation.
This paper empirically investigates whether the contribution of human capital to productivity gro... more This paper empirically investigates whether the contribution of human capital to productivity growth depends on the composition of human capital and proximity to the technology frontier in a panel of 87 sample countries over the period 1970–2004. It tests the hypothesis that primary and secondary education is more suitable for imitation whereas tertiary education is more appropriate for innovation. The results show that the growth enhancing effects of higher education increase with proximity to the technology frontier only for high and medium income countries
The budgetary implications of an aging population in the OECD are often considered dire. This stu... more The budgetary implications of an aging population in the OECD are often considered dire. This study argues that this need not be the case provided that older educated workers are more innovative than their younger counterparts, and that workers with tertiary education stay in the labor force until their 60s. Using a panel of 21 OECD countries over the period 1870-2009, this paper estimates the productivity growth effects of education for different age groups, through the channels of innovation and imitation. The results show that educated workers are highly innovative and that the propensity to innovate increases sharply with age.
This paper tests Jared Diamond’s influential theory that an earlier transition from a hunter-gath... more This paper tests Jared Diamond’s influential theory that an earlier transition from a hunter-gatherer society to agricultural production induces higher levels of technology adoption. Using a proxy for the geographic diffusion barriers of Neolithic technology and an index of biogeographic endowments to isolate the exogenous component of the timing of agricultural transition, the findings indicate that countries that experienced earlier transitions to agriculture were subsequently more capable of adopting new technologies in 1000 BC, 1 AD and 1500 AD. These results lend strong support to Diamond’s hypothesis.
It is well established in the literature that financial development (FD) is conducive to growth, ... more It is well established in the literature that financial development (FD) is conducive to growth, and yet the channels through which FD affects growth are not well understood. Using a unique new panel data set for 21 OECD countries over the past 140 years, this paper examines the extent to which FD transmits to growth through ideas production, savings, fixed investment, and schooling. Unionization and agricultural share are used as instruments for FD. The empirical results show that FD influences growth through all four channels. In particular, ideas production is found to be the most important channel through which FD impacts on growth.
The importance of the length of state history for understanding variations in income levels and g... more The importance of the length of state history for understanding variations in income levels and growth rates across countries has received a lot of attention in the recent literature on long-run comparative development. The literature, however, is silent about its origins. This paper explores the determinants of statehood by considering the potential roles of an early transition to fully-fledged agricultural production, the adoption of state-of-the-art military innovations, and the opportunity for economic interaction with the regional economic leader. The results demonstrate that only the association between economic interaction and the rise and development of the state is statistically robust.
Traditional export models fall short of explaining the marked increase in exports of the Asian mi... more Traditional export models fall short of explaining the marked increase in exports of the Asian miracle economies in the post-WWII period. A model showing that exports are driven by innovations, innovative competitiveness, demand, and price competitiveness is estimated for China, India, Korea, Japan, Singapore and Taiwan over the period 1953-2010. The results demonstrate that innovation stocks and competitiveness are important determinants behind their success. Furthermore, innovation stocks and innovative competitiveness are shown to be less influential for export growth in China and India and their export booms have been fueled by process rather than product innovation.
This paper attempts to shed some light on the role of financial sector policies in generating new... more This paper attempts to shed some light on the role of financial sector policies in generating new knowledge, drawing on the experience of one of the fastest growing and largest developing countries. Using time series data for India over the period 1963–2005, the results indicate that interest rate restraints help generate ideas. Other financial repressionist policies, in the form of high reserve and liquidity requirements, as well as significant directed credit controls, appear to have a dampening effect on ideas production. These results lend some support to the argument that some form of financial sector reforms may help stimulate economic growth via increasing technological innovation.
This paper explores the determinants of financial development by focusing on the role played by b... more This paper explores the determinants of financial development by focusing on the role played by barriers to the diffusion of financial technology. These barriers are measured using human genetic distance from the technology frontier. The results based on cross-sectional data for 123 countries suggest that genetic distance to the global frontier has an economically and statistically significant effect on financial development, in that countries that are genetically far from the technology leader tend to have lower levels of financial development. Genetic distance is found to have the largest effect, even after controlling for other determinants of financial development established in the literature. These findings indicate that cultural barriers to the diffusion of financial technology across borders impact financial development by influencing the follower countries’ ability to adopt and adapt innovations from the frontier.
This article examines the influence of quality-adjusted educational attainment on growth and test... more This article examines the influence of quality-adjusted educational attainment on growth and tests whether it facilitates the transfer of technology developed at the frontier for a panel of 60 countries. Using outcomes of pathogen stress as instruments, the results show that quality-adjusted educational attainment and its interaction with distance to the frontier play important roles for growth.
We demonstrate that existing differences in financial development between countries can be explai... more We demonstrate that existing differences in financial development between countries can be explained by the cumulative variations in their levels of state experience since 1 AD. This dimension of early historical development has not been considered so far in studies that analyze the determinants of financial development. The estimation allows for all major theories established in the literature as possible explanations for the disparity of financial development across the globe. Significance of state antiquity is robust to the use of alternative indicators of financial development, the consideration of different lengths and periods of statehood, and controlling for a range of variables or country characteristics. Our results highlight the important role of statehood in propelling financial system development, and thus provide some support to the view that historically determined differences in the early-start developmental advantage provide the basis for explaining the fundamental sources of variations in financial development between countries today.
We study the role of institutional development as a causal mechanism of history affecting current... more We study the role of institutional development as a causal mechanism of history affecting current economic performance. Several indicators capturing different dimensions of early development in 1500 AD are used to remove the endogenous component of the variations in institutions. These indicators are adjusted with large-scale movements of people across international borders using the global migration matrix of Putterman and Weil (2010) to account for the fact that the ancestors of a population have facilitated the diffusion of knowledge when they migrate. The exogenous component of institutions due to historical development is found to be a significant determinant of current output. By demonstrating that the relationship between early development and current economic performance works through the channel of institutions and that better institutions can be traced back to historical factors, the results of this paper shed some light on how history has played a role in shaping long-run comparative development.
The ideas production function is at the heart of endogenous growth theory. Using data for Europe,... more The ideas production function is at the heart of endogenous growth theory. Using data for Europe, its offshoots, and the Asian Tiger economies over the period from 1870 to 2010, this paper provides direct estimates of an ideas production function that explicitly distinguishes between the first- and second-generation endogenous growth models while allowing for human capital and international knowledge spillovers through various channels. The estimates show strong intertemporal and cross-country knowledge spillovers, provide robust support for Schumpeterian growth theory, and suggest that human capital and some channels of international knowledge spillover are influential for ideas production.
Theory, historiography, and empirical evidence suggest that agriculture is the key to economic de... more Theory, historiography, and empirical evidence suggest that agriculture is the key to economic development. This article examines the extent to which productivity advances in British agriculture during the period 1620–1850 were driven by technological progress. Measuring technology by patents and new book titles on agricultural methods, the results are consistent with endogenous growth theory, indicating that technological progress has played a significant role in agricultural productivity advances.
This paper examines the importance of the domestic research and development stock and foreign kno... more This paper examines the importance of the domestic research and development stock and foreign knowledge spillovers on total factor productivity for six Asian miracle economies over the period from 1955 to 2006. The productivity effects of international knowledge spillovers through the following channels are considered: imports, exports, inward foreign direct investment, patents, geographical proximity, and the general channel. The general channel is a transmission mechanism where knowledge spillovers occur automatically and do not pass through any specific channel. The estimates show that knowledge has been transmitted through all the channels considered but that the import channel and the general channel have probably been the most important ones for the Asian miracle economies.
Although ideas production plays a critical role for growth, there has been only a modicum of rese... more Although ideas production plays a critical role for growth, there has been only a modicum of research on the role played by financial forces in fostering new inventions. Drawing on Schumpeterian growth theory, this paper tests the roles of risk capital and private credit in stimulating knowledge production. Using panel data for 77 countries over the period 1965–2009, we find that countries with more developed financial systems are more innovative. A stronger patent protection framework, on the other hand, curbs innovative production.
Using data for six Asian miracle economies over the period
from 1953 to 2006, this paper examine... more Using data for six Asian miracle economies over the period
from 1953 to 2006, this paper examines the extent to which growth has been driven by R&D and tests which second-generation endogenous growth model is most consistent with the data. The results give strong support to Schumpeterian growth theory but only limited support to semiendogenous growth theory. Furthermore, it is shown that R&D has played a key role for growth in the Asian miracle economies.
In this article, we provide a comparative account of the evolution of private saving in India and... more In this article, we provide a comparative account of the evolution of private saving in India and Malaysia, and analyze how policy changes in the financial sector and pension system help explain differences in their saving performance. Using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds estimation procedure, we find a fairly robust long-run relationship between private saving and its determinants in both countries. Consistent with the predictions made in the life cycle model, our results indicate that higher income growth stimulates private saving and an increase in age dependency retards private saving. The results provide some support for the hypothesis that financial liberalization results in lower private saving in both countries. The evidence also indicates that expected pension benefits tend to stimulate private saving in India, but that the reverse is found in Malaysia.
This paper attempts to identify the key factors behind Malaysia’s remarkable savings performance.... more This paper attempts to identify the key factors behind Malaysia’s remarkable savings performance. Drawing on the life cycle theory, the saving function is estimated by incorporating other relevant structural features and institutional settings of the Malaysian economy into the specification. Particular emphasis has been placed on the roles of financial factors in mobilizing funds in the private sector. The results suggest that financial deepening and increased banking density tend to encourage private savings. Development of insurance markets and liberalization of the financial system, however, tend to exert a dampening effect on private savings.
The main objective of this paper is to explore the determinants of private consumption growth vol... more The main objective of this paper is to explore the determinants of private consumption growth volatility in India, focusing on the role of financial sector policies. Using data for India over the period 1950–2005, the results show that the implementation of financial repressionist policies is strongly associated with lower consumption volatility. The results remain robust after controlling for a wide range of macroeconomic shocks and variables. The presence of a threshold effect implies that the benefits of financial reforms in reducing consumption volatility can only be reaped when the financial system becomes sufficiently liberalized. The results also indicate that the presence of a more open financial system may serve to dampen fluctuations in private consumption.
This paper focuses on examining the effects of financial development and liberalization on knowle... more This paper focuses on examining the effects of financial development and liberalization on knowledge accumulation. The results consistently show that while financial development facilitates the accumulation of new ideas, the implementation of financial reform policies is negatively associated with it. The undesirable effects of financial liberalization are found to operate through the triggering of crises and volatility in the financial system. There is also evidence supporting the hypothesis that financial liberalization reallocates talent from the innovative sector to the financial system, thus retarding technological deepening. Moreover, the findings also suggest that increased R&D activity and the presence of a stronger intellectual property rights protection framework tend to have beneficial effects on knowledge accumulation.
This paper empirically investigates whether the contribution of human capital to productivity gro... more This paper empirically investigates whether the contribution of human capital to productivity growth depends on the composition of human capital and proximity to the technology frontier in a panel of 87 sample countries over the period 1970–2004. It tests the hypothesis that primary and secondary education is more suitable for imitation whereas tertiary education is more appropriate for innovation. The results show that the growth enhancing effects of higher education increase with proximity to the technology frontier only for high and medium income countries
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Papers by James B Ang
from 1953 to 2006, this paper examines the extent to which growth has been driven by R&D and tests which second-generation endogenous growth model is most consistent with the data. The results give strong support to Schumpeterian growth theory but only limited support to semiendogenous growth theory. Furthermore, it is shown that R&D has played a key role for growth in the Asian miracle economies.
from 1953 to 2006, this paper examines the extent to which growth has been driven by R&D and tests which second-generation endogenous growth model is most consistent with the data. The results give strong support to Schumpeterian growth theory but only limited support to semiendogenous growth theory. Furthermore, it is shown that R&D has played a key role for growth in the Asian miracle economies.