There is an upward trend in housing prices around the world, and Pakistan is no different either;... more There is an upward trend in housing prices around the world, and Pakistan is no different either; being a developing county, it is facing a rising population. Due to this, the demand for housing has exceeded its supply and in turn rinsing their prices. This study is the first attempt to identify housing price bubbles in Pakistan from 1972 to 2018. The data are available on an annual basis, and to capture the price volatility, it is converted into a quarterly and monthly format. The Generalized Supremum Augmented Dickey–Fuller (GSADF) test is used to detect multiple bubbles. Monthly data showed more episodes of bubbles than yearly and quarterly data; in each case, it reported two periods of bubble episodes. The results of the house price dynamics suggest a higher return with high risk in the short run.
Purpose-Housing prices have been increasing tremendously in Pakistan, there should be many reason... more Purpose-Housing prices have been increasing tremendously in Pakistan, there should be many reasons but the haphazard urbanization and rapidly growing population. To find out the causes of this price rise, this study aims to assess the impact of the foreign capital inflow and some domestic factors on housing prices. Design/methodology/approach-To get the benefits of high-frequency data, it has been converted into a monthly, quarterly and yearly basis. The unit root is performed to see the stationarity, Johansen test is used for cointegration and coefficients are obtained through the ordinary least squares technique. The robustness of the results is checked with dynamic ordinary least squares and the Chow breakpoint test is used to detect structural breaks. Findings-The housing prices have increased over time; this has been reflected in all the data sets under observation. The country has observed a rapid growth in population and urbanization that has badly affected almost every activity of city life. The impact of foreign capital inflow is positive on the house price appreciation. There is a dire need to divert such foreign funds in the housing sector so that it cannot create an artificial price hike. The government should regularly publish a housing policy for the guidance of investors and the public at large. Also, public authorities should provide housing finance facility. Originality/value-This is a novel work to the best of the authors' knowledge because no one has studied the impact of foreign capital inflow on the housing market for the economy of Pakistan. Furthermore, this study is different in the sense that it has disaggregated annual data into a monthly and quarterly basis to get the benefits of high-frequency data.
Pakistan, being an agro-based economy, is considered most vulnerable to the impacts of climate ch... more Pakistan, being an agro-based economy, is considered most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. The country is susceptible to many natural catastrophes and climateinduced events due to intra-geographical and intra-topographical disparities. This paper is an attempt to measure the relative vulnerability of diverse topographies in rural areas of Pakistan using vulnerability and capacity index tool. The results are based on the findings of primary survey data (350 households from 17 rural communities). Accordingly, and as expected, the key relative differences are attributed to topographical conditions besides the basic quandary of rural areas of Pakistan. The topographical attributes are largely linked to the nature of hazards and relative impacts. While the other aspects of vulnerability in all topographies stem out of inappropriate infrastructure, low education, and institutional factors. The absence of multi-sectoral and productive economic opportunities also poses an adverse impact on the resilience of households in rural areas. The women and households headed by females are found relatively more vulnerable than male-headed households.
There is an upward trend in housing prices around the world, and Pakistan is no different either;... more There is an upward trend in housing prices around the world, and Pakistan is no different either; being a developing county, it is facing a rising population. Due to this, the demand for housing has exceeded its supply and in turn rinsing their prices. This study is the first attempt to identify housing price bubbles in Pakistan from 1972 to 2018. The data are available on an annual basis, and to capture the price volatility, it is converted into a quarterly and monthly format. The Generalized Supremum Augmented Dickey-Fuller (GSADF) test is used to detect multiple bubbles. Monthly data showed more episodes of bubbles than yearly and quarterly data; in each case, it reported two periods of bubble episodes. The results of the house price dynamics suggest a higher return with high risk in the short run.
International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, 2022
Purpose-The study is intended to find out the relationship between housing prices and the inflow ... more Purpose-The study is intended to find out the relationship between housing prices and the inflow of foreign capital in Pakistan. There is a shortage of housing units due to rising population and rural-urban migration since its inception; on the other hand, there is also a lack of housing finances. The urban sprawl has created the demand for housing units, but the supply of housing has not been increased up to the required level, the major reason is a deficiency of housing finances. Design/methodology/approach-The analysis was carried out from 1973 to 2018, on an annual, quarterly and monthly basis; the structural changes are captured by the Zivot-Andrews unit root test. Gregory-Hansen test is used for cointegration, the combined cointegration also validates the results. In addition, the rolling window is used to capture timely changes between data sets. Finally, wavelet analysis is used to prove volatility. Findings-The rising prices of housing in the country is alarming; Pakistan is a developing country, and it is facing many problems along with a housing shortage. The domestic sources of housing finances are inadequate, so foreign funds are welcomed. The rolling window regression proves that domestic factors along with the foreign capital inflow affect housing prices positively, and the wavelet analysis finds out that foreign direct investment is more volatile than workers' remittances in financing the housing market. Originality/value-This is a pioneering study to find out the impact of foreign capital inflows on the housing prices in the economy of Pakistan. The inadequacy of housing finances from domestic sources attracted foreign funds financing this sector. This study has used new techniques like rolling window and wavelet transformation, such techniques have not been used before.
Economic forecasting is necessary to revise and check the effectiveness of the existing policies.... more Economic forecasting is necessary to revise and check the effectiveness of the existing policies. This serves as a pioneer study to forecast house prices (HP), foreign direct investment (FDI), and worker's remittances (WR) using the time series data ranging from 1973 to 2018 on the economy of Pakistan. The analysis is performed on a yearly, quarterly, and monthly basis to present the detailed synthesis. Fan chart methodology is used to forecast growth rates of house price, foreign direct investment, and worker's remittances for ten years 2019-2028. The results of the analysis support the proposition that there is uncertainty associated with house prices. To get beneficial results, the economic managers should carefully design a housing policy so that upside and downside risks are minimized.
There is an upward trend in housing prices around the world, and Pakistan is no different either;... more There is an upward trend in housing prices around the world, and Pakistan is no different either; being a developing county, it is facing a rising population. Due to this, the demand for housing has exceeded its supply and in turn rinsing their prices. This study is the first attempt to identify housing price bubbles in Pakistan from 1972 to 2018. The data are available on an annual basis, and to capture the price volatility, it is converted into a quarterly and monthly format. The Generalized Supremum Augmented Dickey–Fuller (GSADF) test is used to detect multiple bubbles. Monthly data showed more episodes of bubbles than yearly and quarterly data; in each case, it reported two periods of bubble episodes. The results of the house price dynamics suggest a higher return with high risk in the short run.
Purpose-Housing prices have been increasing tremendously in Pakistan, there should be many reason... more Purpose-Housing prices have been increasing tremendously in Pakistan, there should be many reasons but the haphazard urbanization and rapidly growing population. To find out the causes of this price rise, this study aims to assess the impact of the foreign capital inflow and some domestic factors on housing prices. Design/methodology/approach-To get the benefits of high-frequency data, it has been converted into a monthly, quarterly and yearly basis. The unit root is performed to see the stationarity, Johansen test is used for cointegration and coefficients are obtained through the ordinary least squares technique. The robustness of the results is checked with dynamic ordinary least squares and the Chow breakpoint test is used to detect structural breaks. Findings-The housing prices have increased over time; this has been reflected in all the data sets under observation. The country has observed a rapid growth in population and urbanization that has badly affected almost every activity of city life. The impact of foreign capital inflow is positive on the house price appreciation. There is a dire need to divert such foreign funds in the housing sector so that it cannot create an artificial price hike. The government should regularly publish a housing policy for the guidance of investors and the public at large. Also, public authorities should provide housing finance facility. Originality/value-This is a novel work to the best of the authors' knowledge because no one has studied the impact of foreign capital inflow on the housing market for the economy of Pakistan. Furthermore, this study is different in the sense that it has disaggregated annual data into a monthly and quarterly basis to get the benefits of high-frequency data.
Pakistan, being an agro-based economy, is considered most vulnerable to the impacts of climate ch... more Pakistan, being an agro-based economy, is considered most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. The country is susceptible to many natural catastrophes and climateinduced events due to intra-geographical and intra-topographical disparities. This paper is an attempt to measure the relative vulnerability of diverse topographies in rural areas of Pakistan using vulnerability and capacity index tool. The results are based on the findings of primary survey data (350 households from 17 rural communities). Accordingly, and as expected, the key relative differences are attributed to topographical conditions besides the basic quandary of rural areas of Pakistan. The topographical attributes are largely linked to the nature of hazards and relative impacts. While the other aspects of vulnerability in all topographies stem out of inappropriate infrastructure, low education, and institutional factors. The absence of multi-sectoral and productive economic opportunities also poses an adverse impact on the resilience of households in rural areas. The women and households headed by females are found relatively more vulnerable than male-headed households.
There is an upward trend in housing prices around the world, and Pakistan is no different either;... more There is an upward trend in housing prices around the world, and Pakistan is no different either; being a developing county, it is facing a rising population. Due to this, the demand for housing has exceeded its supply and in turn rinsing their prices. This study is the first attempt to identify housing price bubbles in Pakistan from 1972 to 2018. The data are available on an annual basis, and to capture the price volatility, it is converted into a quarterly and monthly format. The Generalized Supremum Augmented Dickey-Fuller (GSADF) test is used to detect multiple bubbles. Monthly data showed more episodes of bubbles than yearly and quarterly data; in each case, it reported two periods of bubble episodes. The results of the house price dynamics suggest a higher return with high risk in the short run.
International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, 2022
Purpose-The study is intended to find out the relationship between housing prices and the inflow ... more Purpose-The study is intended to find out the relationship between housing prices and the inflow of foreign capital in Pakistan. There is a shortage of housing units due to rising population and rural-urban migration since its inception; on the other hand, there is also a lack of housing finances. The urban sprawl has created the demand for housing units, but the supply of housing has not been increased up to the required level, the major reason is a deficiency of housing finances. Design/methodology/approach-The analysis was carried out from 1973 to 2018, on an annual, quarterly and monthly basis; the structural changes are captured by the Zivot-Andrews unit root test. Gregory-Hansen test is used for cointegration, the combined cointegration also validates the results. In addition, the rolling window is used to capture timely changes between data sets. Finally, wavelet analysis is used to prove volatility. Findings-The rising prices of housing in the country is alarming; Pakistan is a developing country, and it is facing many problems along with a housing shortage. The domestic sources of housing finances are inadequate, so foreign funds are welcomed. The rolling window regression proves that domestic factors along with the foreign capital inflow affect housing prices positively, and the wavelet analysis finds out that foreign direct investment is more volatile than workers' remittances in financing the housing market. Originality/value-This is a pioneering study to find out the impact of foreign capital inflows on the housing prices in the economy of Pakistan. The inadequacy of housing finances from domestic sources attracted foreign funds financing this sector. This study has used new techniques like rolling window and wavelet transformation, such techniques have not been used before.
Economic forecasting is necessary to revise and check the effectiveness of the existing policies.... more Economic forecasting is necessary to revise and check the effectiveness of the existing policies. This serves as a pioneer study to forecast house prices (HP), foreign direct investment (FDI), and worker's remittances (WR) using the time series data ranging from 1973 to 2018 on the economy of Pakistan. The analysis is performed on a yearly, quarterly, and monthly basis to present the detailed synthesis. Fan chart methodology is used to forecast growth rates of house price, foreign direct investment, and worker's remittances for ten years 2019-2028. The results of the analysis support the proposition that there is uncertainty associated with house prices. To get beneficial results, the economic managers should carefully design a housing policy so that upside and downside risks are minimized.
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