Sustainable Energy Engineering

Agricultural adaptation to climate change includes changes in agricultural management practices which will be quite effective in reducing the probability of crop failure and improving the socio economic condition of farmers. Knowledge about the decision making process of farmers can help in identifying the determinants of adaptation to them. It is very important to model the farmers' behaviour and decision making process to answer the reasons for farmers' suicides and inequalities arising out within the farmers belonging to same group. Our study identifies the factors responsible for increasing inequalities, crop failure and differential decision making capabilities of farmers by surveying 400 farmers in eighteen villages of Maharashtra, India. We analysed how combination of various factors such as social, economic, infrastructural and institutional affect the decision making process of farmers which brings out the novelty of the present work that can be replicated across a spectrum of such studies. Further, different adaptation options were categorized into the most and least preferred adaptive strategies by considering the farmers' perception. Our work has also identified which particular factor i.e. climatic, institutional, infrastructural or socioeconomic is the major challenge towards the adaptation of farmers. The study has followed logit model in investigating the farmers' adaptation to multiple stressors. The study has also addressed the ongoing argument regarding the scale of policy formulation i.e., whether policy formulation should take place at micro scale (Decentralization) or at larger region (State/ National) level. Findings revealed that farmers perceive climate variability in terms of monsoon and temperature variability and respond as per their indigenous knowledge and experience. Model results revealed that institutional, social and climatic factors should be the focus point of government for improving the adaptation profile of farmers. Credit author statement First author i.e., Deepika Swami prepared the manuscript along with carrying out the field survey, modeling and analysing the data. Second author i.e., Devanathan Parthasarathy helped in formulation of idea and framework along with analysing the results and editing the manuscript.

• Interregional heterogeneity in monsoon variability and its impacts were investigated at district level in Maharashtra. • We demonstrate the need for separate district-level plans for action on climate change. • Information regarding the cropping pattern for the districts showing highest monsoon variability has been provided. • Districts were ranked to help the government in specifying the expenditure in different sectors. • District-scale adaptation measures to help formulate better policies for farmers.

Climate variability, in particular, monsoon and temperature variability is an emerging threat for agricultural system across the globe. So far, a number of studies have analyzed the agricultural vulnerability of a region for a particular year, and thereby, the results obtained were biased towards the climatic and agro-ecological factors of that particular year resulting in an imprecise understanding about the contributing factors of vulnerability. Specific reasons of agricultural vulnerability of a region can be clearly identified by analyzing its contributing factors for long-term. In line of this, our study performs the 50-year analysis from the year 1966-2015 to identify the key drivers of agricultural vulnerability at district level for Maharashtra state in India. We used indicator based approach to assess the dynamics of three dimensions of vulnerability i.e., exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity followed by formulating the composite vulnerability index for each district of Maharashtra. Exposure includes monsoon and temperature variability parameters, sensitivity includes land sensitivity parameters i.e., barren land, fragmented land-holdings etc., and adaptive capacity includes parameters of human capital, physical capital, total assets and land productivity. Formulation of vulnerability index is done via i) first, identifying the underlying factors of vulnerability, ii) normalizing the indicators, iii) identifying functional relationship of each indicator with vulnerability, and iv) aggregating the indicators using equal weightage method. We analyzed the reasons for increasing/decreasing trend of vulnerability for each district of Maharashtra. As an example, vulnerability of Ahmednagar district in Nashik region increased by 0.065 units due to decrease in adaptive capacity by 0.06 units and increase in land sensitivity by 0.018 units over past 50 years. Similarly, vulnerability of Chandarpur district in Vidarbha region reduced by 0.025 units by decrease in exposure by 0.017 and sensitivity by 0.007 units along with increase in adaptive capacity by 0.008 units from the year 1966-2015. Findings show that a few districts are vulnerable despite being least exposed to climate variability signifying the contribution of sensitivity and adaptive capacity parameters towards their vulnerability. The results also highlight the intra-regional district level variability in resource distribution, exposure and sensitivity parameters indicating the significance of having a district-wise policy for Maharashtra, India.

India is witnessing an increasing rate of farmers' suicide, which has been attributed to indebtedness by most of the studies. Indebtedness can be attributed to multiple factors, including individual, household, community, climatic, institutional, and market-oriented factors. The majority of studies have related these factors with indebtedness in isolation, but the conflating effect of these factors has not been investigated. Moreover, it is observed that farmers follow different adaptation measures to deal with crop failure and socioeconomic and climatic stressors, which also play a significant role in their wellbeing. However, the relationship of these adaptation measures toward indebtedness and farmers' suicide was found to be missing in the existing literature, which would otherwise provide valuable information regarding how to deal with farmers' suicide. Considering the compounding effect of these factors on farmers' suicide, we evaluated and quantified the relationship of individual, community, climatic, credit, and market-oriented factors with adaptation and indebtedness, which were subsequently related to suicidal ideation of farmers. This complex relationship was estimated using structural equation modeling (SEM) by surveying 400 farmers across 15 villages in Vidarbha and Marathwada regions of Maharashtra. SEM results show that individual traits, i.e., age, experience, and illness of farmers; community-oriented factors, i.e., provision of lakes, wells, water tanks; credit factor, i.e., moneylenders; perception of climate change; and market factors are the primary factors contributing toward farmers' suicidal ideation. Adaptation was found to play a vital role in reducing the indebtedness and suicidal thoughts of the farming community. Results emphasize that a combined and thorough understanding of all the factors is required before making any recommendations to the government or any other decision-making entity.

Temperature is one of the prime factors affecting crop yield and thereby, in changing climate, it is imperative to investigate the covariability of crop yield and temperature change. Temperature change can manifest itself in multiple factors such as deviation from long-period average, daily scale variability and frequency/intensity of extreme temperature events. To add to the complexity, each of these factors can affect the crop yield differently which necessitates understanding their effect on crop yield individually as well as collectively. Concerning this, we evaluated their distinct and combined impact with respect to threshold temperature of three major crops, i.e. sorghum, sugarcane and millet sown across the Maharashtra State of India. Further, the temperature parameters were conflated using confirmatory factor analysis to formulate a temperature variability index (TVI) that helped in identifying the collective impact of these multiple factors on each crop. Results show that the TVI and sugarcane yield for Nagpur and Bhandara districts of the Vidarbha region exhibited negative co-variability (− 0.30/year), implying the negative impact of temperature change on sugarcane. For sorghum, Wardha and Bhandara of Vidarbha region, Solapur of Pune region and Ratnagiri of Konkan region exhibited negative co-variability with TVI (~− 0.2 to − 0.4/year). Contrary to sugarcane and sorghum, for millets, Akola, Amravati and Chandarpur districts in Vidarbha region; Hingoli, Parbhani, Nanded and Osmanabad in Marathwada region; Satara and Sangli in Pune region; Jalgaon in Nashik region and Ratnagiri; and Sindhudurg in Konkan region exhibited positive co-variability (0.50/year), signifying the favourable temperature conditions for sowing millet. Overall, due to the high exposure of districts to temperature change in Vidarbha and Pune regions, farmers in these districts are advised to refrain from sowing sorghum and sugarcane; instead, farmers can moderate the adverse effects of climate change by sowing millet due to the existence of conducive temperature for millet in Maharashtra. Further, analysis was used to suggest the region and climate-specific cropping pattern for other districts of Maharashtra that can be used by the policy makers to improve the situation of agriculture, farmers and economy of India.