Employment is one of the triple basic factors of production i.e. land, labor, and capital; unlike... more Employment is one of the triple basic factors of production i.e. land, labor, and capital; unlike other factors, labor cannot be stored, and this power will be lost if it cannot be used in production. Therefore, the necessity of the analysis of the employment is of special importance. The question of the involvement and the role of the State in the economy also has been one of the phenomena of interest to economists. The extent and the size of government and its effect on macroeconomic variables have a decisive role in the status of the economy. In this study, variables of government size, economic growth rate, the rate of inflation and the rate of private sector investment are as the explanatory variables, and the variable of employment is dependent variable in the form of a multiple variables regression. Finally the results of the model showed that size of government has a negative effect on employment, and the economic growth rate, the inflation rate and the rate of private sector investment have a positive effect on employment. The results of the estimation in period 1976 -2011 using the self-explanatory Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) and Bound Testing Approach devised by Pesaran, Shin and Smith, showed that our dynamic pattern goes towards the long term pattern. Also the results of the error correction model indicate that it is corrected from its long-term path in each period at a rate of 56%.
... The role of house prices in the monetary policy transmission mechanism in small open economie... more ... The role of house prices in the monetary policy transmission mechanism in small open economies. ... By allowing the interest rate and house prices to react simultaneously to news, we find the role of house prices in the monetary transmission mechanism to increase considerably. ...
6 : ECONOMIC RESEARCH REVIEW WINTER 2009; -(3 (SUPPLEMENT)):141-161. THE SURVEY ON THE LONG-TERM ... more 6 : ECONOMIC RESEARCH REVIEW WINTER 2009; -(3 (SUPPLEMENT)):141-161. THE SURVEY ON THE LONG-TERM RELATIONSHIP OF LABOR DEMAND AND EFFECTIVE FACTORS IN IRAN'S INDUSTRY SECTOR, BY ...
Proceedings of International Academic Conferences, 2014
Background: Natural gas is one of the most important energy for household sector in entire the wo... more Background: Natural gas is one of the most important energy for household sector in entire the world. Iran has rich gas reserves and after Russia, Iran has the largest natural gas reserves in entire the world. A study of natural gas demand is very important and crucial for policy makers of energy sources in Iran. With a good estimation of natural gas demand as a result a good forecasting of natural gas demand, policy makers of energy sources can to plan an accurate energy planning. Objective: The aim of this paper is analyzing the effective factors on natural gas demand in household sector of Iran. For do it, we have used structural time series method with Kalman Filter algorithm during 1974-2010 period. Results: Results indicate that time trend as a proxy for technology and non-economic factors is non-linear process and the elasticity of demand to price of natural gas is-0.50. Also, the elasticity of natural gas demand to price of electricity as a substitute commodity for natural gas is 0.48. The elasticity of gas demand to gas splits and real GDP per capita is 2.37 and 0.72 respectively. Conclusion: The elasticity of demand to price of natural gas is-0.50 that it shows that natural gas is an essential commodity for household sector in Iran.
تنوع فعالیت‌های اقتصادی از یک سو و نقش رو به افزایش دولت‌ها در جهت گسترش خدمات عمومی، تأمین اجتما... more تنوع فعالیت‌های اقتصادی از یک سو و نقش رو به افزایش دولت‌ها در جهت گسترش خدمات عمومی، تأمین اجتماعی، تعهدات دولت در عرصه‌های اقتصادی و اجتماعی و تلاش در جهت تحقق رشد اقتصادی و توزیع عادلانه درآمد، نقش مولفه‌های نهادی را به مسئله‌ای مهم و تأثیرگذار تبدیل کرده است. از آنجا که براساس دیدگاه اقتصاددانان نهادگرا، ضعف ساختار و عملکرد نهادها یکی از دلایل توسعه‌نیافتگی است، این پژوهش با هدف بررسی نقش اندازه دولت در تأثیر متغیرهای نهادی شاخص کیفیت حکمرانی، آزادی اقتصادی و تسهیلات اعطایی بخش خصوصی بر توزیع درآمد کشورهای منتخب طی دوره 2015-2004 انجام شده است. برآورد مدل با استفاده از آزمون رگرسیون آستانه‌ای حاکی از آن است که در رژیم دولت بزرگ متغیرهای شاخص کیفیت حکمرانی و آزادی اقتصادی بیشترین تاثیر منفی معنی‌دار و تسهیلات اعطایی بخش خصوصی تأثیر مثبت معنی‌دار بر توزیع درآمد دارند. یافته‌های این تحقیق، لزوم برنامه‌ریزی و جهت‌گیری اصولی در کشورهای منتخب را در راستای بهبود شاخص‌های اندازه دولت، حکمرانی خوب و آزادی اقتصادی، تنظیم مقررات، افزایش کارایی و اثربخشی و حمایت از بخش خصوصی را تأیید می‌کند.
This article appeared in a journal published by Elsevier. The attached copy is furnished to the a... more This article appeared in a journal published by Elsevier. The attached copy is furnished to the author for internal non-commercial research and education use, including for instruction at the authors institution and sharing with colleagues. Other uses, including reproduction and distribution, or selling or licensing copies, or posting to personal, institutional or third party websites are prohibited. In most cases authors are permitted to post their version of the article (e.g. in Word or Tex form) to their personal website or institutional repository. Authors requiring further information regarding Elsevier's archiving and manuscript policies are encouraged to visit: http://www.elsevier.com/copyright
In recent years, extensive studies have been done on how trade openness affects economic growth; ... more In recent years, extensive studies have been done on how trade openness affects economic growth; however, a limited number of studies focus on the volatility of economic growth. A group of these studies have identified openness as a factor in achieving more stable economic growth, and also a group of researches have considered it as a factor in creating instability in the economy, therefore, the empirical studies have ambiguous. An important reason for this ambiguity, can be the structure of trade and exports of countries. The export concentration will lead to a disruption of a large part of the country's production and foreign revenues, when there is an export shock. Therefore, in this article, in addition to studying the effect of trade openness on economic growth volatility, the role of export diversification in this connection is examined. To this end, data from the 18 selected developing countries have been used during the years 1980- 2015 in two panel data models. The firs...
The national economy of most countries is made up of various regions (provinces) with different i... more The national economy of most countries is made up of various regions (provinces) with different industrial composition, financial structure, trade relations, and institutional environment. Depending on these characteristics, regions may respond differently to a uniform national macroeconomic policy. Policymakers should consider these heterogeneities to achieve the national development objective. Using separate VAR models to investigate the regional effects of a uniform policy neglects the spillover effects across regions. The GVAR approach models the links between units (such as regions) using the weighted average of different macroeconomic aggregates. Since Iran is a regionally dispersed country, this motivates us to analyze whether or not a standard monetary policy has different effects on its provinces' unemployment and inflation rates using a GVAR approach during 2005q1-2016q1 period. Results indicate that one standard deviation positive monetary shock at the national level can significantly reduce unemployment in some provinces. These responses are similar in terms of timing, but their intensity is different. Also, this positive shock has a positive effect on inflation in all provinces. All responses are approximately similar in terms of timing. Despite this similarity, shock responses vary in terms of intensity.
In this study, after calculating the index of real effective exchange rate index for industry, by... more In this study, after calculating the index of real effective exchange rate index for industry, by Goldberg (2004), the relationship between this index and the real value added of the industry and real variables has been investigated for Iran. To evaluate the long-term effects of real effective exchange rate, the convergence normal vector is used; and for analyzing its impact on short-term, the impulse response functions and variance decomposition are used. The results show that the index of real effective exchange rate has positive and negative effects on the real value added of industry in the long run and short run, respectively. Also the results show the impact of real money supply shock on real value added of industry is permanent.
Background: Nowadays because of the increasing growth of financial markets, changes in these mark... more Background: Nowadays because of the increasing growth of financial markets, changes in these markets can have a huge influence on the whole global economy. Forecasting the behavior of these markets, for example stock markets as the main financial market, has always a significant and important role in economic topics. In this regard, controlling the exchange rate and its fluctuations, and in fact proper and optimized selection of exchange systems will have a significant impact in attracting capitals of investors toward exchange market of a country. Moreover, global price of gold is one of the most important economic variables representing most of the international and financial developments. Objective: Therefore, the main goal of this study is providing a suitable pattern to forecast stock price index using two exogenous variables, exchange rate and price of gold. In this regard, in order to analyze the data, among time series data of gold price, exchange rate and index of Tehran Stock exchange price during the first period of March 2001 up to September 2012, different patterns of ARIMA, logistic smooth transition autoregressive (LSTAR) has been used. Results: The result of this study suggests alternativeness of exchange, gold, and stock markets. In addition, performance accuracy of LSTAR non-linear model has been higher than ARIMA linear model in the field of forecasting the price of Tehran stock exchange market. Conclusion: The vulnerability amount of efficiency of stock index comparing to exchange rate is somehow more than the effects caused by gold price changes on this index (with regard to Elasticity values of mentioned variables in long term equation), so as a policy proposal, comparing to gold price changes, it's possible to take the attention of most investors in Tehran stock market mostly to exchange rate fluctuations. Therefore, investors and financial analysts can present more actual analysis from changes and fluctuations of stock price by following the news and information of mentioned markets. On the other hand, findings of this study indicated that using nonlinear models has more ability to describe the behavior of stock index and its changes. Therefore, it can be suggested that policy proposals in this field must be established according to the researches that their results come from nonlinear models, otherwise, Bias in the specification of mentioned variable will lead to take wrong policies.
The aim of this paper is determination of an optimal policy rule for Iranian economy from an Isla... more The aim of this paper is determination of an optimal policy rule for Iranian economy from an Islamic perspective. This study draws on an Islamic instrument known as the Musharakah contract to design a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model. In this model the interest rate is no longer considered as a monetary policy instrument and the focus is on the impact of economic shocks on the Dynamics of Macroeconomic variables. Finally, a policy rule based on Musharakah is introduced from which the optimal policy and empirical coefficients are derived. Using data from Iran, the empirical results indicate that the policy responses of central bank to output gap and inflation are in accordance with expectations and therefore, economically meaningful. So specified instrument policy rule has to be considered as optimal in general. The optimal policy rules indicate that when the authorities pay equal attention to the inflation and output gaps the minimum loss is occurred.
Employment is one of the triple basic factors of production i.e. land, labor, and capital; unlike... more Employment is one of the triple basic factors of production i.e. land, labor, and capital; unlike other factors, labor cannot be stored, and this power will be lost if it cannot be used in production. Therefore, the necessity of the analysis of the employment is of special importance. The question of the involvement and the role of the State in the economy also has been one of the phenomena of interest to economists. The extent and the size of government and its effect on macroeconomic variables have a decisive role in the status of the economy. In this study, variables of government size, economic growth rate, the rate of inflation and the rate of private sector investment are as the explanatory variables, and the variable of employment is dependent variable in the form of a multiple variables regression. Finally the results of the model showed that size of government has a negative effect on employment, and the economic growth rate, the inflation rate and the rate of private sector investment have a positive effect on employment. The results of the estimation in period 1976 -2011 using the self-explanatory Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) and Bound Testing Approach devised by Pesaran, Shin and Smith, showed that our dynamic pattern goes towards the long term pattern. Also the results of the error correction model indicate that it is corrected from its long-term path in each period at a rate of 56%.
... The role of house prices in the monetary policy transmission mechanism in small open economie... more ... The role of house prices in the monetary policy transmission mechanism in small open economies. ... By allowing the interest rate and house prices to react simultaneously to news, we find the role of house prices in the monetary transmission mechanism to increase considerably. ...
6 : ECONOMIC RESEARCH REVIEW WINTER 2009; -(3 (SUPPLEMENT)):141-161. THE SURVEY ON THE LONG-TERM ... more 6 : ECONOMIC RESEARCH REVIEW WINTER 2009; -(3 (SUPPLEMENT)):141-161. THE SURVEY ON THE LONG-TERM RELATIONSHIP OF LABOR DEMAND AND EFFECTIVE FACTORS IN IRAN'S INDUSTRY SECTOR, BY ...
Proceedings of International Academic Conferences, 2014
Background: Natural gas is one of the most important energy for household sector in entire the wo... more Background: Natural gas is one of the most important energy for household sector in entire the world. Iran has rich gas reserves and after Russia, Iran has the largest natural gas reserves in entire the world. A study of natural gas demand is very important and crucial for policy makers of energy sources in Iran. With a good estimation of natural gas demand as a result a good forecasting of natural gas demand, policy makers of energy sources can to plan an accurate energy planning. Objective: The aim of this paper is analyzing the effective factors on natural gas demand in household sector of Iran. For do it, we have used structural time series method with Kalman Filter algorithm during 1974-2010 period. Results: Results indicate that time trend as a proxy for technology and non-economic factors is non-linear process and the elasticity of demand to price of natural gas is-0.50. Also, the elasticity of natural gas demand to price of electricity as a substitute commodity for natural gas is 0.48. The elasticity of gas demand to gas splits and real GDP per capita is 2.37 and 0.72 respectively. Conclusion: The elasticity of demand to price of natural gas is-0.50 that it shows that natural gas is an essential commodity for household sector in Iran.
تنوع فعالیت‌های اقتصادی از یک سو و نقش رو به افزایش دولت‌ها در جهت گسترش خدمات عمومی، تأمین اجتما... more تنوع فعالیت‌های اقتصادی از یک سو و نقش رو به افزایش دولت‌ها در جهت گسترش خدمات عمومی، تأمین اجتماعی، تعهدات دولت در عرصه‌های اقتصادی و اجتماعی و تلاش در جهت تحقق رشد اقتصادی و توزیع عادلانه درآمد، نقش مولفه‌های نهادی را به مسئله‌ای مهم و تأثیرگذار تبدیل کرده است. از آنجا که براساس دیدگاه اقتصاددانان نهادگرا، ضعف ساختار و عملکرد نهادها یکی از دلایل توسعه‌نیافتگی است، این پژوهش با هدف بررسی نقش اندازه دولت در تأثیر متغیرهای نهادی شاخص کیفیت حکمرانی، آزادی اقتصادی و تسهیلات اعطایی بخش خصوصی بر توزیع درآمد کشورهای منتخب طی دوره 2015-2004 انجام شده است. برآورد مدل با استفاده از آزمون رگرسیون آستانه‌ای حاکی از آن است که در رژیم دولت بزرگ متغیرهای شاخص کیفیت حکمرانی و آزادی اقتصادی بیشترین تاثیر منفی معنی‌دار و تسهیلات اعطایی بخش خصوصی تأثیر مثبت معنی‌دار بر توزیع درآمد دارند. یافته‌های این تحقیق، لزوم برنامه‌ریزی و جهت‌گیری اصولی در کشورهای منتخب را در راستای بهبود شاخص‌های اندازه دولت، حکمرانی خوب و آزادی اقتصادی، تنظیم مقررات، افزایش کارایی و اثربخشی و حمایت از بخش خصوصی را تأیید می‌کند.
This article appeared in a journal published by Elsevier. The attached copy is furnished to the a... more This article appeared in a journal published by Elsevier. The attached copy is furnished to the author for internal non-commercial research and education use, including for instruction at the authors institution and sharing with colleagues. Other uses, including reproduction and distribution, or selling or licensing copies, or posting to personal, institutional or third party websites are prohibited. In most cases authors are permitted to post their version of the article (e.g. in Word or Tex form) to their personal website or institutional repository. Authors requiring further information regarding Elsevier's archiving and manuscript policies are encouraged to visit: http://www.elsevier.com/copyright
In recent years, extensive studies have been done on how trade openness affects economic growth; ... more In recent years, extensive studies have been done on how trade openness affects economic growth; however, a limited number of studies focus on the volatility of economic growth. A group of these studies have identified openness as a factor in achieving more stable economic growth, and also a group of researches have considered it as a factor in creating instability in the economy, therefore, the empirical studies have ambiguous. An important reason for this ambiguity, can be the structure of trade and exports of countries. The export concentration will lead to a disruption of a large part of the country's production and foreign revenues, when there is an export shock. Therefore, in this article, in addition to studying the effect of trade openness on economic growth volatility, the role of export diversification in this connection is examined. To this end, data from the 18 selected developing countries have been used during the years 1980- 2015 in two panel data models. The firs...
The national economy of most countries is made up of various regions (provinces) with different i... more The national economy of most countries is made up of various regions (provinces) with different industrial composition, financial structure, trade relations, and institutional environment. Depending on these characteristics, regions may respond differently to a uniform national macroeconomic policy. Policymakers should consider these heterogeneities to achieve the national development objective. Using separate VAR models to investigate the regional effects of a uniform policy neglects the spillover effects across regions. The GVAR approach models the links between units (such as regions) using the weighted average of different macroeconomic aggregates. Since Iran is a regionally dispersed country, this motivates us to analyze whether or not a standard monetary policy has different effects on its provinces' unemployment and inflation rates using a GVAR approach during 2005q1-2016q1 period. Results indicate that one standard deviation positive monetary shock at the national level can significantly reduce unemployment in some provinces. These responses are similar in terms of timing, but their intensity is different. Also, this positive shock has a positive effect on inflation in all provinces. All responses are approximately similar in terms of timing. Despite this similarity, shock responses vary in terms of intensity.
In this study, after calculating the index of real effective exchange rate index for industry, by... more In this study, after calculating the index of real effective exchange rate index for industry, by Goldberg (2004), the relationship between this index and the real value added of the industry and real variables has been investigated for Iran. To evaluate the long-term effects of real effective exchange rate, the convergence normal vector is used; and for analyzing its impact on short-term, the impulse response functions and variance decomposition are used. The results show that the index of real effective exchange rate has positive and negative effects on the real value added of industry in the long run and short run, respectively. Also the results show the impact of real money supply shock on real value added of industry is permanent.
Background: Nowadays because of the increasing growth of financial markets, changes in these mark... more Background: Nowadays because of the increasing growth of financial markets, changes in these markets can have a huge influence on the whole global economy. Forecasting the behavior of these markets, for example stock markets as the main financial market, has always a significant and important role in economic topics. In this regard, controlling the exchange rate and its fluctuations, and in fact proper and optimized selection of exchange systems will have a significant impact in attracting capitals of investors toward exchange market of a country. Moreover, global price of gold is one of the most important economic variables representing most of the international and financial developments. Objective: Therefore, the main goal of this study is providing a suitable pattern to forecast stock price index using two exogenous variables, exchange rate and price of gold. In this regard, in order to analyze the data, among time series data of gold price, exchange rate and index of Tehran Stock exchange price during the first period of March 2001 up to September 2012, different patterns of ARIMA, logistic smooth transition autoregressive (LSTAR) has been used. Results: The result of this study suggests alternativeness of exchange, gold, and stock markets. In addition, performance accuracy of LSTAR non-linear model has been higher than ARIMA linear model in the field of forecasting the price of Tehran stock exchange market. Conclusion: The vulnerability amount of efficiency of stock index comparing to exchange rate is somehow more than the effects caused by gold price changes on this index (with regard to Elasticity values of mentioned variables in long term equation), so as a policy proposal, comparing to gold price changes, it's possible to take the attention of most investors in Tehran stock market mostly to exchange rate fluctuations. Therefore, investors and financial analysts can present more actual analysis from changes and fluctuations of stock price by following the news and information of mentioned markets. On the other hand, findings of this study indicated that using nonlinear models has more ability to describe the behavior of stock index and its changes. Therefore, it can be suggested that policy proposals in this field must be established according to the researches that their results come from nonlinear models, otherwise, Bias in the specification of mentioned variable will lead to take wrong policies.
The aim of this paper is determination of an optimal policy rule for Iranian economy from an Isla... more The aim of this paper is determination of an optimal policy rule for Iranian economy from an Islamic perspective. This study draws on an Islamic instrument known as the Musharakah contract to design a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model. In this model the interest rate is no longer considered as a monetary policy instrument and the focus is on the impact of economic shocks on the Dynamics of Macroeconomic variables. Finally, a policy rule based on Musharakah is introduced from which the optimal policy and empirical coefficients are derived. Using data from Iran, the empirical results indicate that the policy responses of central bank to output gap and inflation are in accordance with expectations and therefore, economically meaningful. So specified instrument policy rule has to be considered as optimal in general. The optimal policy rules indicate that when the authorities pay equal attention to the inflation and output gaps the minimum loss is occurred.
Uploads
Papers by mehdi pedram