Geographical Information Systems (GIS) are powerful tools in the field of invasive species manage... more Geographical Information Systems (GIS) are powerful tools in the field of invasive species management. GIS can be used to create potential distribution maps for all manner of taxa, including plants, animals, and diseases. GIS also performs well in the early detection and rapid assessment of invasive species. Here, we used GIS applications to investigate species richness and invasion patterns in fish in the United States (US) at the 6-digit Hydrologic Unit Code (HUC) level. We also created maps of potential spread of the cane toad (Bufo marinus) in the southeastern US at the 8-digit HUC level using regression and environmental envelope techniques. Equipped with this potential map, resource managers can target their field surveys to areas most vulnerable to invasion. Advances in GIS technology, maps, data, and many of these techniques can be found on websites such as the National Institute of Invasive Species Science (www.NIISS.org). Such websites provide a forum for data sharing and analysis that is an invaluable service to the invasive species community.
Background/Question/Methods Introduced to North America over a century ago, white pine blister ru... more Background/Question/Methods Introduced to North America over a century ago, white pine blister rust (Cronartium ribicola J. C. Fisch. ex Rabenh.) has caused widespread mortality of five-needle pines along the eastern and western seaboards. The rust is continuing to spread into new areas, and now infects four species of pine in the Rocky Mountain region of the United States. We used maximum entropy distribution modeling to predict the potential probability distribution of the disease. Using calibration and test data, we verified that the maximum entropy model is an effective tool for predicting the current and potential spread of white pine blister rust. Results/Conclusions The quality and geographic range of the model results improved significantly as we were able to obtain more data. Growing degree days, elevation, and mean temperature of the driest quarter were among the top predictors of white pine blister rust’s potential distribution. The model results indicate that blister rus...
We used near-term climate scenarios for the continental United States, to model 12 invasive plant... more We used near-term climate scenarios for the continental United States, to model 12 invasive plants species. We created three potential habitat suitability models for each species using maximum entropy modeling: (1) current; (2) 2020; and (3) 2035. Area under the curve values for the models ranged from 0.92 to 0.70, with 10 of the 12 being above 0.83 suggesting strong and predictable species-environment matching. Change in area between the current potential habitat and 2035 ranged from a potential habitat loss of about 217,000 km 2 , to a potential habitat gain of about 133,000 km 2 .
ABSTRACT Buffelgrass, a highly competitive and flammable African bunchgrass, is spreading rapidly... more ABSTRACT Buffelgrass, a highly competitive and flammable African bunchgrass, is spreading rapidly across both urban and natural areas in the Sonoran Desert of southern and central Arizona. Damages include increased fire risk, losses in biodiversity, and diminished revenues and quality of life. Feasibility of sustained and successful mitigation will depend heavily on rates of spread, treatment capacity, and cost-benefit analysis. We created a decision support model for the wildland-urban interface north of Tucson, AZ, using a spatial state-and-transition simulation modeling framework, the Tool for Exploratory Landscape Scenario Analyses. We addressed the issues of undetected invasions, identifying potentially suitable habitat and calibrating spread rates, while answering questions about how to allocate resources among inventory, treatment, and maintenance. Inputs to the model include a state-and-transition simulation model to describe the succession and control of buffelgrass, a habitat suitability model, management planning zones, spread vectors, estimated dispersal kernels for buffelgrass, and maps of current distribution. Our spatial simulations showed that without treatment, buffelgrass infestations that started with as little as 80 ha (198 ac) could grow to more than 6,000 ha by the year 2060. In contrast, applying unlimited management resources could limit 2060 infestation levels to approximately 50 ha. The application of sufficient resources toward inventory is important because undetected patches of buffelgrass will tend to grow exponentially. In our simulations, areas affected by buffelgrass may increase substantially over the next 50 yr, but a large, upfront investment in buffelgrass control could reduce the infested area and overall management costs.
Geographical Information Systems (GIS) are powerful tools in the field of invasive species manage... more Geographical Information Systems (GIS) are powerful tools in the field of invasive species management. GIS can be used to create potential distribution maps for all manner of taxa, including plants, animals, and diseases. GIS also performs well in the early detection and rapid assessment of invasive species. Here, we used GIS applications to investigate species richness and invasion patterns in fish in the United States (US) at the 6-digit Hydrologic Unit Code (HUC) level. We also created maps of potential spread of the cane toad (Bufo marinus) in the southeastern US at the 8-digit HUC level using regression and environmental envelope techniques. Equipped with this potential map, resource managers can target their field surveys to areas most vulnerable to invasion. Advances in GIS technology, maps, data, and many of these techniques can be found on websites such as the National Institute of Invasive Species Science (www.NIISS.org). Such websites provide a forum for data sharing and analysis that is an invaluable service to the invasive species community.
Buffelgrass (Pennisetum ciliare) is spreading throughout the southwestern United States creating ... more Buffelgrass (Pennisetum ciliare) is spreading throughout the southwestern United States creating a risk of fire in a system poorly adapted to it. This fire risk threatens native ecosystems and human properties. We created a decision support model for the wildland urban interface north of ...
Resource managers are often faced with trade-offs in allocating limited resources to manage plant... more Resource managers are often faced with trade-offs in allocating limited resources to manage plant invasions. These decisions must often be made with uncertainty about the location of infestations, their rate of spread and effectiveness of management actions. Landscape level simulation tools such as state-and-transition simulation models (STSMs) can be used to evaluate the potential long term consequences of alternative management strategies and help identify those strategies that make efficient use of resources. We analyzed alternative management scenarios for African buffelgrass (Pennisetum ciliare syn. Cenchrus ciliaris) at Ironwood Forest National Monument, Arizona using a spatially explicit STSM implemented in the Tool for Exploratory Landscape Scenario Analyses (TELSA). Buffelgrass is an invasive grass that is spreading rapidly in the Sonoran Desert, affecting multiple habitats and jurisdictions. This invasion is creating a novel fire risk and transforming natural ecosystems. The model used in this application incorporates buffelgrass dispersal and establishment and management actions and effectiveness including inventory, treatment and post-treatment maintenance. We simulated 11 alternative scenarios developed in consultation with buffelgrass managers and other stakeholders. The scenarios vary according to the total budget allocated for management and the allocation of that budget between different kinds of management actions. Scenario results suggest that to achieve an actual reduction and stabilization of buffelgrass populations, management unconstrained by fiscal restrictions and across all jurisdictions and private lands is required; without broad and aggressive management, buffelgrass populations are expected to increase over time. However, results also suggest that large upfront investments can achieve control results that require relatively minimal spending in the future.
Geographical Information Systems (GIS) are powerful tools in the field of invasive species manage... more Geographical Information Systems (GIS) are powerful tools in the field of invasive species management. GIS can be used to create potential distribution maps for all manner of taxa, including plants, animals, and diseases. GIS also performs well in the early detection and rapid assessment of invasive species. Here, we used GIS applications to investigate species richness and invasion patterns in fish in the United States (US) at the 6-digit Hydrologic Unit Code (HUC) level. We also created maps of potential spread of the cane toad (Bufo marinus) in the southeastern US at the 8-digit HUC level using regression and environmental envelope techniques. Equipped with this potential map, resource managers can target their field surveys to areas most vulnerable to invasion. Advances in GIS technology, maps, data, and many of these techniques can be found on websites such as the National Institute of Invasive Species Science (www.NIISS.org). Such websites provide a forum for data sharing and analysis that is an invaluable service to the invasive species community.
Background/Question/Methods Introduced to North America over a century ago, white pine blister ru... more Background/Question/Methods Introduced to North America over a century ago, white pine blister rust (Cronartium ribicola J. C. Fisch. ex Rabenh.) has caused widespread mortality of five-needle pines along the eastern and western seaboards. The rust is continuing to spread into new areas, and now infects four species of pine in the Rocky Mountain region of the United States. We used maximum entropy distribution modeling to predict the potential probability distribution of the disease. Using calibration and test data, we verified that the maximum entropy model is an effective tool for predicting the current and potential spread of white pine blister rust. Results/Conclusions The quality and geographic range of the model results improved significantly as we were able to obtain more data. Growing degree days, elevation, and mean temperature of the driest quarter were among the top predictors of white pine blister rust’s potential distribution. The model results indicate that blister rus...
We used near-term climate scenarios for the continental United States, to model 12 invasive plant... more We used near-term climate scenarios for the continental United States, to model 12 invasive plants species. We created three potential habitat suitability models for each species using maximum entropy modeling: (1) current; (2) 2020; and (3) 2035. Area under the curve values for the models ranged from 0.92 to 0.70, with 10 of the 12 being above 0.83 suggesting strong and predictable species-environment matching. Change in area between the current potential habitat and 2035 ranged from a potential habitat loss of about 217,000 km 2 , to a potential habitat gain of about 133,000 km 2 .
ABSTRACT Buffelgrass, a highly competitive and flammable African bunchgrass, is spreading rapidly... more ABSTRACT Buffelgrass, a highly competitive and flammable African bunchgrass, is spreading rapidly across both urban and natural areas in the Sonoran Desert of southern and central Arizona. Damages include increased fire risk, losses in biodiversity, and diminished revenues and quality of life. Feasibility of sustained and successful mitigation will depend heavily on rates of spread, treatment capacity, and cost-benefit analysis. We created a decision support model for the wildland-urban interface north of Tucson, AZ, using a spatial state-and-transition simulation modeling framework, the Tool for Exploratory Landscape Scenario Analyses. We addressed the issues of undetected invasions, identifying potentially suitable habitat and calibrating spread rates, while answering questions about how to allocate resources among inventory, treatment, and maintenance. Inputs to the model include a state-and-transition simulation model to describe the succession and control of buffelgrass, a habitat suitability model, management planning zones, spread vectors, estimated dispersal kernels for buffelgrass, and maps of current distribution. Our spatial simulations showed that without treatment, buffelgrass infestations that started with as little as 80 ha (198 ac) could grow to more than 6,000 ha by the year 2060. In contrast, applying unlimited management resources could limit 2060 infestation levels to approximately 50 ha. The application of sufficient resources toward inventory is important because undetected patches of buffelgrass will tend to grow exponentially. In our simulations, areas affected by buffelgrass may increase substantially over the next 50 yr, but a large, upfront investment in buffelgrass control could reduce the infested area and overall management costs.
Geographical Information Systems (GIS) are powerful tools in the field of invasive species manage... more Geographical Information Systems (GIS) are powerful tools in the field of invasive species management. GIS can be used to create potential distribution maps for all manner of taxa, including plants, animals, and diseases. GIS also performs well in the early detection and rapid assessment of invasive species. Here, we used GIS applications to investigate species richness and invasion patterns in fish in the United States (US) at the 6-digit Hydrologic Unit Code (HUC) level. We also created maps of potential spread of the cane toad (Bufo marinus) in the southeastern US at the 8-digit HUC level using regression and environmental envelope techniques. Equipped with this potential map, resource managers can target their field surveys to areas most vulnerable to invasion. Advances in GIS technology, maps, data, and many of these techniques can be found on websites such as the National Institute of Invasive Species Science (www.NIISS.org). Such websites provide a forum for data sharing and analysis that is an invaluable service to the invasive species community.
Buffelgrass (Pennisetum ciliare) is spreading throughout the southwestern United States creating ... more Buffelgrass (Pennisetum ciliare) is spreading throughout the southwestern United States creating a risk of fire in a system poorly adapted to it. This fire risk threatens native ecosystems and human properties. We created a decision support model for the wildland urban interface north of ...
Resource managers are often faced with trade-offs in allocating limited resources to manage plant... more Resource managers are often faced with trade-offs in allocating limited resources to manage plant invasions. These decisions must often be made with uncertainty about the location of infestations, their rate of spread and effectiveness of management actions. Landscape level simulation tools such as state-and-transition simulation models (STSMs) can be used to evaluate the potential long term consequences of alternative management strategies and help identify those strategies that make efficient use of resources. We analyzed alternative management scenarios for African buffelgrass (Pennisetum ciliare syn. Cenchrus ciliaris) at Ironwood Forest National Monument, Arizona using a spatially explicit STSM implemented in the Tool for Exploratory Landscape Scenario Analyses (TELSA). Buffelgrass is an invasive grass that is spreading rapidly in the Sonoran Desert, affecting multiple habitats and jurisdictions. This invasion is creating a novel fire risk and transforming natural ecosystems. The model used in this application incorporates buffelgrass dispersal and establishment and management actions and effectiveness including inventory, treatment and post-treatment maintenance. We simulated 11 alternative scenarios developed in consultation with buffelgrass managers and other stakeholders. The scenarios vary according to the total budget allocated for management and the allocation of that budget between different kinds of management actions. Scenario results suggest that to achieve an actual reduction and stabilization of buffelgrass populations, management unconstrained by fiscal restrictions and across all jurisdictions and private lands is required; without broad and aggressive management, buffelgrass populations are expected to increase over time. However, results also suggest that large upfront investments can achieve control results that require relatively minimal spending in the future.
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