After years of dealing with leering, whistling, honking, catcalls, and sexually explicit comments... more After years of dealing with leering, whistling, honking, catcalls, and sexually explicit comments at the hands of unknown men in public spaces, as well as being followed and even grabbed, I wrote my master's thesis on gender-based street harassment in 2007 at The George Washington University. Since then, I have devoted thousands of hours to researching, documenting, and addressing the issue.
Peace Economics, Peace Science and Public Policy, 2017
Nigeria’s ethnically and religiously diverse Middle Belt has experienced recurrent eruptions of v... more Nigeria’s ethnically and religiously diverse Middle Belt has experienced recurrent eruptions of violence over the past several decades. Disputes between pastoralists and farmers arise from disagreements over access to farmland, grazing areas, stock routes, and water points for both animals and households. Although relatively low in intensity, this form of violence is widespread, persistent, and arguably increasing in its incidence. This study seeks to answer the question: How has farmer-pastoralist conflict affected state internally-generated revenues (IGR)? The literature on the effect of violence on sub-national fiscal capacity is slim to none. We use a synthetic control approach to model how IGR for four conflict-affected states – Benue, Kaduna, Nasarawa, and Plateau – would have developed in the absence of violence. To account for the endogeneity criticism commonly leveled at such synthetic control analyses, we then use a fixed-effects IV model to estimate IGR losses predicted b...
This study estimates the relationship between violent conflict and household income in four state... more This study estimates the relationship between violent conflict and household income in four states of Nigeria’s Middle Belt region (Benue, Kaduna, Nasarawa, and Plateau) where farmers and pastoralists routinely clash over access to farmland, grazing areas, stock routes, and water points for animals and households. Although relatively low in intensity, this form of violence is widespread, persistent, and arguably increasing in its incidence. We obtained data on income and household-level violence exposure from an original household survey administered in September 2014. Employing a negative binomial instrumental variables model, we find an inverse relation between violence and household incomes. Incomes could be increased by between 64 to 210 percent of current levels if violence related to farmer-pastoralist conflict in the four study states were reduced to near-zero. Cumulatively, we find that forgone income represents 10.2 percent of the combined official state domestic product in...
This article reports on the potential macroeconomic benefits of peace stemming from a reduction i... more This article reports on the potential macroeconomic benefits of peace stemming from a reduction in farmer-pastoralist violence in four Middle Belt states of Nigeria (Benue, Kaduna, Nasarawa, and Plateau). Farmers and pastoralists routinely clash over access to farmland, grazing areas, stock routes, and water points for both animals and households. Farmer-pastoralist violence in these states is a relatively low-intensity form of conflict, but it is regionally widespread and chronic, and its incidence is arguably increasing. Using estimates of potential income benefits of peace at the household-level derived from a related study, we herein derive macroeconomic benefits via an input-output model of the Nigerian economy. We estimate these benefits to amount to around 2.8 percent of the nominal Nigerian GDP (or around 0.8 percent of the total Nigerian GDP, inclusive of the informal sector), representing a major macroeconomic opportunity. We break out these benefits by sector, showing tha...
IEP estimates that nearly 408 million youth live in a state or province where armed conflict to... more IEP estimates that nearly 408 million youth live in a state or province where armed conflict took place in 2016. This estimate suggests that nearly 1 in 4 youth globally are affected, in some way, by armed conflict. A large youth population should not necessarily be seen as a precursor to violence. All of the world's most peaceful countries have small or medium sized youth populations. But not all of the world's least peaceful countries have large youth cohorts, and not all of the large youth populations are in the least peaceful places. Creating a high positive peace environment for young people can prevent breakdowns in peacefulness. Filling data gaps can yield even stronger evidence-based policy recommendations for youth, peace and security-and build institutional capacity along the way. How many youth are affected by violence? IEP estimates that at least 407,840,200 young people, or 23 percent of the global population aged 15 to 29, live in a state or province where armed conflict or other organized violence took place in 2016. At least 2.5 million adolescents (aged 12 to 17) were displaced in 2014, or 15 percent of UNHCR's persons of concern. An estimated 3 million were displaced in 2015 and figures for 2016 are likely to show a similar rise. These estimates suggest that nearly 1 in 4 youth globally are affected, in some way, by armed conflict.
This article reports on the potential macroeconomic benefits of peace stemming from a reduction i... more This article reports on the potential macroeconomic benefits of peace stemming from a reduction in farmer-pastoralist violence in four Middle Belt states of Nigeria (Benue, Kaduna, Nasarawa, and Plateau). Farmers and pastoralists routinely clash over access to farmland, grazing areas, stock routes, and water points for both animals and households. Farmer-pastoralist violence in these states is a relatively low-intensity form of conflict, but it is regionally widespread and chronic, and its incidence is arguably increasing. Using estimates of potential income benefits of peace at the household-level derived from a related study, we herein derive macroeconomic benefits via an input-output model of the Nigerian economy. We estimate these benefits to amount to around 2.8 percent of the nominal Nigerian GDP (or around 0.8 percent of the total Nigerian GDP, inclusive of the informal sector), representing a major macroeconomic opportunity. We break out these benefits by sector, showing that the sectors that stand to gain most from peace are the crop production, food and beverage, livestock, and chemical and petroleum industries. [JEL codes: C65, D74, E01]
This study estimates the relationship between violent conflict and household income in four state... more This study estimates the relationship between violent conflict and household income in four states of Nigeria’s Middle Belt region (Benue, Kaduna, Nasarawa, and Plateau) where farmers and pastoralists routinely clash over access to farmland, grazing areas, stock routes, and water points for animals and households. Although relatively low in intensity, this form of violence is widespread, persistent, and arguably increasing in its incidence. We obtained data on income and household-level violence exposure from an original household survey administered in September 2014. Employing a negative binomial instrumental variables model, we find an inverse relation between violence and household incomes. Incomes could be increased by between 64 to 210 percent of current levels if violence related to farmer-pastoralist conflict in the four study states were reduced to near-zero. Cumulatively, we find that forgone income represents 10.2 percent of the combined official state domestic product in the study area. This is high when compared to the costs of conflict measured in other studies, even as our study takes account only of microeconomic costs. After incorporating an estimate of the size of the informal economy, the microeconomic cost of farmer-pastoralist conflict to the total economy is approximately 2.9 percent. [JEL codes: C36, D74, J17]
After years of dealing with leering, whistling, honking, catcalls, and sexually explicit comments... more After years of dealing with leering, whistling, honking, catcalls, and sexually explicit comments at the hands of unknown men in public spaces, as well as being followed and even grabbed, I wrote my master's thesis on gender-based street harassment in 2007 at The George Washington University. Since then, I have devoted thousands of hours to researching, documenting, and addressing the issue.
Peace Economics, Peace Science and Public Policy, 2017
Nigeria’s ethnically and religiously diverse Middle Belt has experienced recurrent eruptions of v... more Nigeria’s ethnically and religiously diverse Middle Belt has experienced recurrent eruptions of violence over the past several decades. Disputes between pastoralists and farmers arise from disagreements over access to farmland, grazing areas, stock routes, and water points for both animals and households. Although relatively low in intensity, this form of violence is widespread, persistent, and arguably increasing in its incidence. This study seeks to answer the question: How has farmer-pastoralist conflict affected state internally-generated revenues (IGR)? The literature on the effect of violence on sub-national fiscal capacity is slim to none. We use a synthetic control approach to model how IGR for four conflict-affected states – Benue, Kaduna, Nasarawa, and Plateau – would have developed in the absence of violence. To account for the endogeneity criticism commonly leveled at such synthetic control analyses, we then use a fixed-effects IV model to estimate IGR losses predicted b...
This study estimates the relationship between violent conflict and household income in four state... more This study estimates the relationship between violent conflict and household income in four states of Nigeria’s Middle Belt region (Benue, Kaduna, Nasarawa, and Plateau) where farmers and pastoralists routinely clash over access to farmland, grazing areas, stock routes, and water points for animals and households. Although relatively low in intensity, this form of violence is widespread, persistent, and arguably increasing in its incidence. We obtained data on income and household-level violence exposure from an original household survey administered in September 2014. Employing a negative binomial instrumental variables model, we find an inverse relation between violence and household incomes. Incomes could be increased by between 64 to 210 percent of current levels if violence related to farmer-pastoralist conflict in the four study states were reduced to near-zero. Cumulatively, we find that forgone income represents 10.2 percent of the combined official state domestic product in...
This article reports on the potential macroeconomic benefits of peace stemming from a reduction i... more This article reports on the potential macroeconomic benefits of peace stemming from a reduction in farmer-pastoralist violence in four Middle Belt states of Nigeria (Benue, Kaduna, Nasarawa, and Plateau). Farmers and pastoralists routinely clash over access to farmland, grazing areas, stock routes, and water points for both animals and households. Farmer-pastoralist violence in these states is a relatively low-intensity form of conflict, but it is regionally widespread and chronic, and its incidence is arguably increasing. Using estimates of potential income benefits of peace at the household-level derived from a related study, we herein derive macroeconomic benefits via an input-output model of the Nigerian economy. We estimate these benefits to amount to around 2.8 percent of the nominal Nigerian GDP (or around 0.8 percent of the total Nigerian GDP, inclusive of the informal sector), representing a major macroeconomic opportunity. We break out these benefits by sector, showing tha...
IEP estimates that nearly 408 million youth live in a state or province where armed conflict to... more IEP estimates that nearly 408 million youth live in a state or province where armed conflict took place in 2016. This estimate suggests that nearly 1 in 4 youth globally are affected, in some way, by armed conflict. A large youth population should not necessarily be seen as a precursor to violence. All of the world's most peaceful countries have small or medium sized youth populations. But not all of the world's least peaceful countries have large youth cohorts, and not all of the large youth populations are in the least peaceful places. Creating a high positive peace environment for young people can prevent breakdowns in peacefulness. Filling data gaps can yield even stronger evidence-based policy recommendations for youth, peace and security-and build institutional capacity along the way. How many youth are affected by violence? IEP estimates that at least 407,840,200 young people, or 23 percent of the global population aged 15 to 29, live in a state or province where armed conflict or other organized violence took place in 2016. At least 2.5 million adolescents (aged 12 to 17) were displaced in 2014, or 15 percent of UNHCR's persons of concern. An estimated 3 million were displaced in 2015 and figures for 2016 are likely to show a similar rise. These estimates suggest that nearly 1 in 4 youth globally are affected, in some way, by armed conflict.
This article reports on the potential macroeconomic benefits of peace stemming from a reduction i... more This article reports on the potential macroeconomic benefits of peace stemming from a reduction in farmer-pastoralist violence in four Middle Belt states of Nigeria (Benue, Kaduna, Nasarawa, and Plateau). Farmers and pastoralists routinely clash over access to farmland, grazing areas, stock routes, and water points for both animals and households. Farmer-pastoralist violence in these states is a relatively low-intensity form of conflict, but it is regionally widespread and chronic, and its incidence is arguably increasing. Using estimates of potential income benefits of peace at the household-level derived from a related study, we herein derive macroeconomic benefits via an input-output model of the Nigerian economy. We estimate these benefits to amount to around 2.8 percent of the nominal Nigerian GDP (or around 0.8 percent of the total Nigerian GDP, inclusive of the informal sector), representing a major macroeconomic opportunity. We break out these benefits by sector, showing that the sectors that stand to gain most from peace are the crop production, food and beverage, livestock, and chemical and petroleum industries. [JEL codes: C65, D74, E01]
This study estimates the relationship between violent conflict and household income in four state... more This study estimates the relationship between violent conflict and household income in four states of Nigeria’s Middle Belt region (Benue, Kaduna, Nasarawa, and Plateau) where farmers and pastoralists routinely clash over access to farmland, grazing areas, stock routes, and water points for animals and households. Although relatively low in intensity, this form of violence is widespread, persistent, and arguably increasing in its incidence. We obtained data on income and household-level violence exposure from an original household survey administered in September 2014. Employing a negative binomial instrumental variables model, we find an inverse relation between violence and household incomes. Incomes could be increased by between 64 to 210 percent of current levels if violence related to farmer-pastoralist conflict in the four study states were reduced to near-zero. Cumulatively, we find that forgone income represents 10.2 percent of the combined official state domestic product in the study area. This is high when compared to the costs of conflict measured in other studies, even as our study takes account only of microeconomic costs. After incorporating an estimate of the size of the informal economy, the microeconomic cost of farmer-pastoralist conflict to the total economy is approximately 2.9 percent. [JEL codes: C36, D74, J17]
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