Rapid increases in food supplies have reduced global hunger, while rising burdens of dietrelated ... more Rapid increases in food supplies have reduced global hunger, while rising burdens of dietrelated disease have made poor diet quality the leading cause of death and disability around the world. Today's "double burden" of undernourishment in utero and early childhood then undesired weight gain and obesity later in life is accompanied by a third less visible burden of micronutrient imbalances. The triple burden of undernutrition, obesity, and unbalanced micronutrients that underlies many diet-related diseases such as diabetes, hypertension and other cardiometabolic disorders often coexist in the same person, household and community. All kinds of deprivation are closely linked to food insecurity and poverty, but income growth does not always improve diet quality in part because consumers cannot directly or immediately observe the health consequences of their food options, especially for newly introduced or reformulated items. Even after direct experience and epidemiological evidence reveals relative risks of dietary patterns and nutritional exposures, many consumers may not consume a healthy diet because food choice is driven by other factors. This chapter reviews the evidence on dietary transition and food system transformation during economic development, drawing implications for how research and practice in agricultural economics can improve nutritional outcomes.
Environmental conditions in early life are known to have causal impacts on later health outcomes,... more Environmental conditions in early life are known to have causal impacts on later health outcomes, but mechanisms and potential remedies have been difficult to discern. This paper uses the Nepal Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) of 2006 and 2011, combined with earlier NASA satellite observations of variation in vegetation density (NDVI) at each child's location and time of birth, to identify the trimesters of gestation and infancy during which climate variation can be linked to heights attained between 12 and 59 months of age. We find significant differences by sex of the fetus: males are most affected by conditions in their second trimester of gestation, and females in their first trimester after birth. Each 100 point difference in NDVI at those times is associated with a difference in height-forage Z-score (HAZ) of 0.088 for boys and 0.054 for girls, an effect size that is similar to moving within the distribution of household wealth by one quintile for boys, and one decile for girls. The entire seasonal change in NDVI from peak to trough is on the order of 200-300 points, implying a seasonal effect on HAZ similar to 1-3 quintiles of household wealth. This effect is observed only in households without toilets; with toilets there is no seasonal fluctuation, implying protection against climatic changes in disease transmission. We also use data from the Nepal Living Standards Surveys on district-level agricultural production and marketing, and find a vegetation effect on child growth only in districts where households' food consumption comes primarily from own production. Robustness tests find no evidence of selection effects, and placebo regressions reveal no significant artefactual correlations. Our findings regarding timing and sex-specificity are consistent with previous results, and the protective effect of sanitation and markets is a novel indication of the mechanisms by which households can gain resilience against adverse climatic conditions.
Despite tremendous advances in care for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection and increase... more Despite tremendous advances in care for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection and increased funding for treatment, morbidity and mortality due to HIV/AIDS in developing countries remains unacceptably high. A major contributing factor is that 1800 million people remain chronically undernourished globally, and the HIV epidemic largely overlaps with populations already experiencing low diet quality and quantity. Here, we present an updated review of the relationship between HIV infection, nutritional deficiencies, and food insecurity and consider efforts to interrupt this cycle at a programmatic level. As HIV infection progresses, it causes a catabolic state and increased susceptibility to other infections, which are compounded by a lack of caloric and other nutrient intake, leading to progressive worsening of malnutrition. Despite calls from national and international organizations to integrate HIV and nutritional programs, data are lacking on how such programs can be effectively implemented in resource-poor settings, on the optimum content and duration of nutritional support, and on ideal target recipients.
After briefly reviewing the new institutionalism, this article uses the history of political refo... more After briefly reviewing the new institutionalism, this article uses the history of political reform in Africa to test its key tenet: that power, if properly organized, is a productive resource. It does so by exploring the relationship between changes in political institutions and changes in economic performance, both at the macro-and the microlevel. The evidence indicates that political reform (Granger) causes increases in GDP per capita in the African subset of global data. And, at the micro-level, it demonstrates that changes in national political institutions in Africa strongly relate to changes in total factor productivity in agriculture.
We use partisan and opportunistic political business cycle (“PBC”) considerations to develop and ... more We use partisan and opportunistic political business cycle (“PBC”) considerations to develop and test a framework for explaining election-period changes in market-determined credit spreads for developing country sovereign bonds (“bond spreads”). Analyzing daily bond spread observations for 19 presidential elections held in 12 developing countries from 1994-2000, we find that pre-election bond spread trends are significantly linked both to the partisan orientation of incumbents facing election and to expectations of incumbent victory. We find that bond spreads for right-wing (left-wing) incumbents increase (decrease) as the likelihood of left-wing (right-wing) challenger victory increases. For right-wing incumbents, our results suggest that partisan and opportunistic PBC effects bondholder risk perceptions are mutually reinforcing. For left-wing incumbents, our results suggest that partisan PBC effects dominate bondholder risk perceptions compared to opportunistic PBC effects. Over all, our results suggest that bondholders and, perhaps, other non-voting financial actors behave consistently with PBC considerations. In certain cases, their PBC behaviors exact a surcharge on the cost of capital vital to developing country investment and economic growth.
International business (“IB”) research has paid scant attention to whether and how electoral poli... more International business (“IB”) research has paid scant attention to whether and how electoral politics and economic policies affect foreign investment risk assessment, particularly in developing countries where the last decade has seen both considerable foreign investment, and domestic progress toward democratization and electoral competitiveness. We respond with development and testing of a framework using partisan and opportunistic political business cycle (“PBC”) theory to predict investment risk perceived by investors holding sovereign bonds during 19 presidential elections in 12 developing countries from 1994-2000. Consistent with our framework, we find that bondholders perceive higher (lower) investment risk in the form of higher (lower) credit spreads on their sovereign bonds as right-wing (left-wing) political incumbents appear more likely to be replaced by left-wing (right-wing) challengers. For international business research, our findings illustrate the promise of PBC theory in explaining the election-period behavior of sovereign bondholders and, perhaps, other investors who also “vote” in developing country elections and can substantially influence the price and availability of capital there. For developing country investors and states, our findings highlight potential costs and benefits associated with democratization, and underscore the importance of state communication with investors during electionperiods.
We question previous research assuming that privatizing firm performance generally benefits from ... more We question previous research assuming that privatizing firm performance generally benefits from decreasing state ownership and the passage of time, both of which purportedly align principal-agent incentives promoting organizational decision-making that increases shareholder value. When state ownership shifts from majority and controlling to minority and non-controlling the performance impact may be positive in the short-run, particularly where there is instability in the local investment policy environment. Consistent with this proposition, we develop and test hypotheses derived from a minority and non-controlling or "residual" state ownership framework, grounded in credible privatization and institutional theory. We propose that: 1) residual state ownership positively affects shareholder returns after strategic decisions by privatizing firms because it signals state support for managerial initiatives; 2) the passage of time since initial privatization negatively affects shareholder returns after strategic decisions by privatizing firms because initial undertakings in support of the privatizing firm are reversed; and 3) homecountry investment policy stability moderates these two effects-greater stability obviates the need for residual state ownership and slows policy reversals over time. We find empirical support for our residual state ownership framework in event study analyses of cumulative abnormal returns ("CARs") associated with 196 major investments announced from 1986-2001 by 15 privatizing telecoms from around the world. CARs are positive at 5-25% state ownership levels but turn negative at higher state ownership levels. CARs turn sharply negative within 1-2 years from initial privatization dates. Increasing policy stability diminishes positive ownership and negative time effects on CARs. Results confirm the potential supporting role that residual state ownership can play in enhancing strategic decision-making and financial performance by privatizing firms, particularly where there is instability in the home-country investment policy environment.
This paper advances previous literature that has posited a climate-nutrition link without identif... more This paper advances previous literature that has posited a climate-nutrition link without identifying a specific pathway via agriculture. We measure the specific effects of exposure to extreme heat on maize yields in Tanzania, and then test whether prenatal heat-induced yield losses predict subsequent child growth outcomes. In the first stage we find that substituting one full day (24 h) exposure to 39 °C for a day at 29 degrees reduces predicted yield for the entire growing season by 6-11%. In the second stage we find that in utero exposure to growing degree days greater than 29 °C predicts lower postnatal HAZ scores for Tanzanian boys 0-5 years of age, but not girls. Consistent with a maternal malnutrition mechanism, we also find a negative association between maize yields and women's body mass. Insofar as climate change is likely to increase the incidence of heat shocks in much of sub-Saharan Africa, our results suggest a significant risk of adverse nutritional impacts.
This study extends the literature on the demand for child height to consider the demand for child... more This study extends the literature on the demand for child height to consider the demand for child micronutrient status. Micronutrient malnutrition is a pervasive and debilitating problem in many developing countries. A central focus concerns the distinct roles of maternal schooling versus maternal nutrition knowledge as determinants of micronutrient status. Applying both parametric and non-parametric techniques to Indonesian household data, the study finds that critical determinants include: child gender and age, the number of children in the household, household expenditure levels, access to water, and maternal nutrition knowledge. Maternal schooling contributes to child micronutrient status primarily through its effect on nutrition knowledge (for which schooling is not the primary source), and possibly through its effect on household expenditures.
Discussion papers provide a means for researchers, students and professionals to share thoughts a... more Discussion papers provide a means for researchers, students and professionals to share thoughts and findings on a wide range of topics relating to food, hunger, agriculture and nutrition. They contain preliminary material and are circulated prior to a formal peer review in order to stimulate discussion and critical comment. Some working papers will eventually be published and their content may be revised based on feedback received. The views presented in these papers do not represent official views of the School. The discussion paper series is available on line at
Drawing on a large household survey in rural Central Java, Indonesia, we address the functional d... more Drawing on a large household survey in rural Central Java, Indonesia, we address the functional distinction between formal education and nutrition knowledge. Applying parametric and non-parametric techniques to household data from rural Indonesia the study finds that: 1) Mothers’ nutrition knowledge has a strong, positive impact on child nutrition in the short-term (weight-for-height), controlling for mother’s education and income; 2) by contrast, formal schooling dominates nutrition knowledge in determining child anthropometric outcomes in the longer run (height-for-age); 3) to the extent that maternal education contributes to shorter-run child outcomes its effects are meditated through nutrition knowledge; and, 4) paternal education contributes independently to long-run (but not short-run) child nutrition. The results suggest a potentially large role for nutrition education in combating child malnutrition in poor countries with limited schooling infrastructure and/or limited acces...
This paper demonstrates the impact of structural political conditions on the likelihood of curren... more This paper demonstrates the impact of structural political conditions on the likelihood of currency crises in emerging markets. Controlling for a standard and parsimonious set of macroeconomic variables, I find that: left-wing government is more conducive to currency crises; democracies are less vulnerable; and strong governments (those with larger legislative majorities and those which face more fragmented legislative opposition) are also less vulnerable. In contrast to previous studies, I also find elections (and executive change) not to be associated with currency crises. Despite the strong statistical association between currency crises and these political variables, in- and out-of-sample predictions demonstrate the remaining difficulty of predicting the timing of currency crises.
Political business cycle theory and empirics typically assume that elections are competitive. Yet... more Political business cycle theory and empirics typically assume that elections are competitive. Yet, as empirical work on political business cycles turns increasingly to developing countries for evidence, this assumption becomes untenable. We propose and test two empirical hypotheses regarding political business cycles: first, we should only see cycles when elections involve multiparty competit ion; second, we should see larger cycles in "founding" elections. Using a new indicator of multiparty competition and macroeconomic data from Africa, we find strong support for both hypotheses. These findings have implications for democratic transitions and the compatibility of economic and political reform in nascent democracies.
Rapid increases in food supplies have reduced global hunger, while rising burdens of dietrelated ... more Rapid increases in food supplies have reduced global hunger, while rising burdens of dietrelated disease have made poor diet quality the leading cause of death and disability around the world. Today's "double burden" of undernourishment in utero and early childhood then undesired weight gain and obesity later in life is accompanied by a third less visible burden of micronutrient imbalances. The triple burden of undernutrition, obesity, and unbalanced micronutrients that underlies many diet-related diseases such as diabetes, hypertension and other cardiometabolic disorders often coexist in the same person, household and community. All kinds of deprivation are closely linked to food insecurity and poverty, but income growth does not always improve diet quality in part because consumers cannot directly or immediately observe the health consequences of their food options, especially for newly introduced or reformulated items. Even after direct experience and epidemiological evidence reveals relative risks of dietary patterns and nutritional exposures, many consumers may not consume a healthy diet because food choice is driven by other factors. This chapter reviews the evidence on dietary transition and food system transformation during economic development, drawing implications for how research and practice in agricultural economics can improve nutritional outcomes.
Environmental conditions in early life are known to have causal impacts on later health outcomes,... more Environmental conditions in early life are known to have causal impacts on later health outcomes, but mechanisms and potential remedies have been difficult to discern. This paper uses the Nepal Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) of 2006 and 2011, combined with earlier NASA satellite observations of variation in vegetation density (NDVI) at each child's location and time of birth, to identify the trimesters of gestation and infancy during which climate variation can be linked to heights attained between 12 and 59 months of age. We find significant differences by sex of the fetus: males are most affected by conditions in their second trimester of gestation, and females in their first trimester after birth. Each 100 point difference in NDVI at those times is associated with a difference in height-forage Z-score (HAZ) of 0.088 for boys and 0.054 for girls, an effect size that is similar to moving within the distribution of household wealth by one quintile for boys, and one decile for girls. The entire seasonal change in NDVI from peak to trough is on the order of 200-300 points, implying a seasonal effect on HAZ similar to 1-3 quintiles of household wealth. This effect is observed only in households without toilets; with toilets there is no seasonal fluctuation, implying protection against climatic changes in disease transmission. We also use data from the Nepal Living Standards Surveys on district-level agricultural production and marketing, and find a vegetation effect on child growth only in districts where households' food consumption comes primarily from own production. Robustness tests find no evidence of selection effects, and placebo regressions reveal no significant artefactual correlations. Our findings regarding timing and sex-specificity are consistent with previous results, and the protective effect of sanitation and markets is a novel indication of the mechanisms by which households can gain resilience against adverse climatic conditions.
Despite tremendous advances in care for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection and increase... more Despite tremendous advances in care for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection and increased funding for treatment, morbidity and mortality due to HIV/AIDS in developing countries remains unacceptably high. A major contributing factor is that 1800 million people remain chronically undernourished globally, and the HIV epidemic largely overlaps with populations already experiencing low diet quality and quantity. Here, we present an updated review of the relationship between HIV infection, nutritional deficiencies, and food insecurity and consider efforts to interrupt this cycle at a programmatic level. As HIV infection progresses, it causes a catabolic state and increased susceptibility to other infections, which are compounded by a lack of caloric and other nutrient intake, leading to progressive worsening of malnutrition. Despite calls from national and international organizations to integrate HIV and nutritional programs, data are lacking on how such programs can be effectively implemented in resource-poor settings, on the optimum content and duration of nutritional support, and on ideal target recipients.
After briefly reviewing the new institutionalism, this article uses the history of political refo... more After briefly reviewing the new institutionalism, this article uses the history of political reform in Africa to test its key tenet: that power, if properly organized, is a productive resource. It does so by exploring the relationship between changes in political institutions and changes in economic performance, both at the macro-and the microlevel. The evidence indicates that political reform (Granger) causes increases in GDP per capita in the African subset of global data. And, at the micro-level, it demonstrates that changes in national political institutions in Africa strongly relate to changes in total factor productivity in agriculture.
We use partisan and opportunistic political business cycle (“PBC”) considerations to develop and ... more We use partisan and opportunistic political business cycle (“PBC”) considerations to develop and test a framework for explaining election-period changes in market-determined credit spreads for developing country sovereign bonds (“bond spreads”). Analyzing daily bond spread observations for 19 presidential elections held in 12 developing countries from 1994-2000, we find that pre-election bond spread trends are significantly linked both to the partisan orientation of incumbents facing election and to expectations of incumbent victory. We find that bond spreads for right-wing (left-wing) incumbents increase (decrease) as the likelihood of left-wing (right-wing) challenger victory increases. For right-wing incumbents, our results suggest that partisan and opportunistic PBC effects bondholder risk perceptions are mutually reinforcing. For left-wing incumbents, our results suggest that partisan PBC effects dominate bondholder risk perceptions compared to opportunistic PBC effects. Over all, our results suggest that bondholders and, perhaps, other non-voting financial actors behave consistently with PBC considerations. In certain cases, their PBC behaviors exact a surcharge on the cost of capital vital to developing country investment and economic growth.
International business (“IB”) research has paid scant attention to whether and how electoral poli... more International business (“IB”) research has paid scant attention to whether and how electoral politics and economic policies affect foreign investment risk assessment, particularly in developing countries where the last decade has seen both considerable foreign investment, and domestic progress toward democratization and electoral competitiveness. We respond with development and testing of a framework using partisan and opportunistic political business cycle (“PBC”) theory to predict investment risk perceived by investors holding sovereign bonds during 19 presidential elections in 12 developing countries from 1994-2000. Consistent with our framework, we find that bondholders perceive higher (lower) investment risk in the form of higher (lower) credit spreads on their sovereign bonds as right-wing (left-wing) political incumbents appear more likely to be replaced by left-wing (right-wing) challengers. For international business research, our findings illustrate the promise of PBC theory in explaining the election-period behavior of sovereign bondholders and, perhaps, other investors who also “vote” in developing country elections and can substantially influence the price and availability of capital there. For developing country investors and states, our findings highlight potential costs and benefits associated with democratization, and underscore the importance of state communication with investors during electionperiods.
We question previous research assuming that privatizing firm performance generally benefits from ... more We question previous research assuming that privatizing firm performance generally benefits from decreasing state ownership and the passage of time, both of which purportedly align principal-agent incentives promoting organizational decision-making that increases shareholder value. When state ownership shifts from majority and controlling to minority and non-controlling the performance impact may be positive in the short-run, particularly where there is instability in the local investment policy environment. Consistent with this proposition, we develop and test hypotheses derived from a minority and non-controlling or "residual" state ownership framework, grounded in credible privatization and institutional theory. We propose that: 1) residual state ownership positively affects shareholder returns after strategic decisions by privatizing firms because it signals state support for managerial initiatives; 2) the passage of time since initial privatization negatively affects shareholder returns after strategic decisions by privatizing firms because initial undertakings in support of the privatizing firm are reversed; and 3) homecountry investment policy stability moderates these two effects-greater stability obviates the need for residual state ownership and slows policy reversals over time. We find empirical support for our residual state ownership framework in event study analyses of cumulative abnormal returns ("CARs") associated with 196 major investments announced from 1986-2001 by 15 privatizing telecoms from around the world. CARs are positive at 5-25% state ownership levels but turn negative at higher state ownership levels. CARs turn sharply negative within 1-2 years from initial privatization dates. Increasing policy stability diminishes positive ownership and negative time effects on CARs. Results confirm the potential supporting role that residual state ownership can play in enhancing strategic decision-making and financial performance by privatizing firms, particularly where there is instability in the home-country investment policy environment.
This paper advances previous literature that has posited a climate-nutrition link without identif... more This paper advances previous literature that has posited a climate-nutrition link without identifying a specific pathway via agriculture. We measure the specific effects of exposure to extreme heat on maize yields in Tanzania, and then test whether prenatal heat-induced yield losses predict subsequent child growth outcomes. In the first stage we find that substituting one full day (24 h) exposure to 39 °C for a day at 29 degrees reduces predicted yield for the entire growing season by 6-11%. In the second stage we find that in utero exposure to growing degree days greater than 29 °C predicts lower postnatal HAZ scores for Tanzanian boys 0-5 years of age, but not girls. Consistent with a maternal malnutrition mechanism, we also find a negative association between maize yields and women's body mass. Insofar as climate change is likely to increase the incidence of heat shocks in much of sub-Saharan Africa, our results suggest a significant risk of adverse nutritional impacts.
This study extends the literature on the demand for child height to consider the demand for child... more This study extends the literature on the demand for child height to consider the demand for child micronutrient status. Micronutrient malnutrition is a pervasive and debilitating problem in many developing countries. A central focus concerns the distinct roles of maternal schooling versus maternal nutrition knowledge as determinants of micronutrient status. Applying both parametric and non-parametric techniques to Indonesian household data, the study finds that critical determinants include: child gender and age, the number of children in the household, household expenditure levels, access to water, and maternal nutrition knowledge. Maternal schooling contributes to child micronutrient status primarily through its effect on nutrition knowledge (for which schooling is not the primary source), and possibly through its effect on household expenditures.
Discussion papers provide a means for researchers, students and professionals to share thoughts a... more Discussion papers provide a means for researchers, students and professionals to share thoughts and findings on a wide range of topics relating to food, hunger, agriculture and nutrition. They contain preliminary material and are circulated prior to a formal peer review in order to stimulate discussion and critical comment. Some working papers will eventually be published and their content may be revised based on feedback received. The views presented in these papers do not represent official views of the School. The discussion paper series is available on line at
Drawing on a large household survey in rural Central Java, Indonesia, we address the functional d... more Drawing on a large household survey in rural Central Java, Indonesia, we address the functional distinction between formal education and nutrition knowledge. Applying parametric and non-parametric techniques to household data from rural Indonesia the study finds that: 1) Mothers’ nutrition knowledge has a strong, positive impact on child nutrition in the short-term (weight-for-height), controlling for mother’s education and income; 2) by contrast, formal schooling dominates nutrition knowledge in determining child anthropometric outcomes in the longer run (height-for-age); 3) to the extent that maternal education contributes to shorter-run child outcomes its effects are meditated through nutrition knowledge; and, 4) paternal education contributes independently to long-run (but not short-run) child nutrition. The results suggest a potentially large role for nutrition education in combating child malnutrition in poor countries with limited schooling infrastructure and/or limited acces...
This paper demonstrates the impact of structural political conditions on the likelihood of curren... more This paper demonstrates the impact of structural political conditions on the likelihood of currency crises in emerging markets. Controlling for a standard and parsimonious set of macroeconomic variables, I find that: left-wing government is more conducive to currency crises; democracies are less vulnerable; and strong governments (those with larger legislative majorities and those which face more fragmented legislative opposition) are also less vulnerable. In contrast to previous studies, I also find elections (and executive change) not to be associated with currency crises. Despite the strong statistical association between currency crises and these political variables, in- and out-of-sample predictions demonstrate the remaining difficulty of predicting the timing of currency crises.
Political business cycle theory and empirics typically assume that elections are competitive. Yet... more Political business cycle theory and empirics typically assume that elections are competitive. Yet, as empirical work on political business cycles turns increasingly to developing countries for evidence, this assumption becomes untenable. We propose and test two empirical hypotheses regarding political business cycles: first, we should only see cycles when elections involve multiparty competit ion; second, we should see larger cycles in "founding" elections. Using a new indicator of multiparty competition and macroeconomic data from Africa, we find strong support for both hypotheses. These findings have implications for democratic transitions and the compatibility of economic and political reform in nascent democracies.
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Papers by Steven Block