Papers by Seung-whan Choi
British Journal of Political Science
Whether or not nationalism fuels terrorist violence by ethnic groups is an important yet underexp... more Whether or not nationalism fuels terrorist violence by ethnic groups is an important yet underexplored research question. This study offers a theoretical argument, empirical analysis and a case study. When political leaders such as presidents and prime ministers use nationalism to shore up legitimacy, they threaten the existence of disfavored ethnic groups. In turn, those groups are more likely to respond with terrorist attacks. The author tests this argument using a sample of 766 ethnic groups across 163 countries from 1970 to 2009. The multilevel mixed-effects negative binomial regression results provide evidence that leader nationalism is a significant driver of ethnic terrorism. The detrimental effect of nationalism remains the same after using a generalized method of moments method to account for possible reverse causality. A case study of Sinhalese nationalist leaders versus Tamil Tigers also supports the nationalism and terrorism nexus.
Terrorism and Political Violence, 2018
Although fundamentalist Sunni Muslims have committed more than 85% of all suicide attacks, empiri... more Although fundamentalist Sunni Muslims have committed more than 85% of all suicide attacks, empirical research has yet to examine how internal sectarian conflicts in the Islamic world have fueled the most dangerous form of political violence. We contend that fundamentalist Sunni Muslims employ suicide attacks as a political tool in sectarian violence and this targeting dynamic marks a central facet of the phenomenon today. We conduct a large-n analysis, evaluating an original dataset of 6,224 suicide attacks during the period of 1980 through 2016. A series of logistic regression analyses at the incidence level shows that, ceteris paribus, sectarian violence between Sunni Muslims and non-Sunni Muslims emerges as a substantive, significant, and positive predictor of suicide attacks. Indeed, the context of sectarian conflict predicts the use of suicide attacks to a much greater degree than the contexts of militant outbidding or foreign occupation. We also present five case examples, illustrating the use of suicide attacks in sectarian conflicts in Lebanon, Iraq, Syria, Nigeria, and Pakistan. Our overall results indicate that only a reduction in sectarian violence, and especially conflicts involving fundamentalist Sunni Muslims, can prevent the continuing spread of the suicideattack phenomenon.
commentaries on the earlier versions of this study. 1 Do democracies become less peaceful with on... more commentaries on the earlier versions of this study. 1 Do democracies become less peaceful with one another as the overall number of democratic states in the international system increases? Gartzke and Weisiger (2013, 2014) claim that they do. This study argues that their evidence stems from a mathematical error in their statistical model. Once this study corrects that error, their findings no longer hold. In other words, when Gartzke and Weisiger’s model is properly specified, no dyadic and systemic difference persists, while democracy emerges as a pacifying factor that reduces the likelihood of interstate dispute. Simply put, the democratic peace prevails over other possible explanations.
Given that immigration policy and terrorism are two hotly debated issues, this study empirically ... more Given that immigration policy and terrorism are two hotly debated issues, this study empirically examines the effects of twelve different restrictive policies that Western democratic states use to screen immigrants for terrorism prevention. This study finds mixed effects of restrictive policy alternatives. On the one hand, terrorism is likely to decrease when states impose immigration restrictions based on skill or wealth, or when states offer immigrants limited legal rights that permit only restricted residence and designated employers. On the other hand, terrorism is expected to increase when states allow no special visas or procedures to recruit immigrants, or when states give workers citizenship only when they are born to a native parent. These mixed findings suggest that to deter future terrorist incidents, states should be selective in initiating and implementing new immigration reforms.
International Interactions, 2020
Are human rights a core value of US foreign policy? If so, how does the United States enforce hum... more Are human rights a core value of US foreign policy? If so, how does the United States enforce human rights standards? Extant studies maintain that mass media, public opinion, and/or political concerns drive US decisions to engage in humanitarian military interventions. In this study, we explore the extent to which "human rights institutionalization" through the State Department's human rights reporting affects the likelihood of US humanitarian interventions. We find that human rights institutionalization is a viable, and perhaps even the best, explanation for the robust connection between human rights violations and deployment of the US military. These findings suggest that the United States is willing to undertake costly action to enforce international standards of human rights, but with some important caveats. Overall, we provide large-N, quantitative support for the broader shifts in US humanitarian intervention described by qualitative scholars and experts in US strategy and security policy.
Defence and Peace Economics, 2019
Though populist politicians deem the terrorist threat as a reason for restrictive immigration pol... more Though populist politicians deem the terrorist threat as a reason for restrictive immigration policies, existing studies neglect to explore the systematic connection between immigration and security. This study offers a novel theoretical argument about the effect of terrorism on immigration policy and then conducts a first-cut empirical analysis. Based on a battery of statistical tests performed against pooled panel data on immigrant-receiving countries that are attractive to low-skilled workers due to high wages, this study shows evidence that terrorist threats are actually unrelated to restrictive immigration policies.
International Studies Quarterly, 2015
Do democracies become less peaceful with one another as the overall number of democratic states i... more Do democracies become less peaceful with one another as the overall number of democratic states in the international system increases? Gartzke and Weisiger (2013, 2014) claim that they do. However, I argue that their evidence stems from a mathematical error in their statistical model. Once I correct that error, their findings no longer hold. In other words, when Gartzke and Weisiger's model receives proper specification, no dyadic and systemic difference persists, while democracy emerges as a pacifying factor that reduces the likelihood of interstate dispute.
Journal of Conflict Resolution, 2016
Democracy, human rights, and terrorism are major foreign policy issues. However, among these issu... more Democracy, human rights, and terrorism are major foreign policy issues. However, among these issues, what do the US leaders care about the most? This study assesses the degree to which Washington responds militarily to threats to democratic institutions, human rights abuses, and terrorist activity in other countries. Based on a cross-national, time-series data analysis of 164 countries for the years 1981 to 2005, this study presents empirical models that evaluate the relative importance of these issues for contemporary American foreign and security policy. It turns out that, all other things being equal, the United States is likely to engage in military campaigns for humanitarian reasons that focus on human rights protection rather than for its own security interests such as democracy promotion or terrorism reduction. This finding is extremely robust and reinforced by case illustrations that support a causal explanation for US intervention with a basic and sustained place for human ...
International Political Science Review, 2016
While the International Relations literature has long debated whether or not economic sanctions a... more While the International Relations literature has long debated whether or not economic sanctions are an effective foreign policy tool, it neglects to empirically examine the damage sanctions impose on target economies. This study presents two theoretical explanations about the impact of sanctions on target countries’ economies, and collects extensive empirical data to test such theoretical connections in three areas: international trade; foreign direct investment; and foreign portfolio investment. A cross-national, time-series data analysis of 133 countries during the period from 1970 to 2005 reveals that regardless of the number of senders, the type of sanctions or the level of anticipated costs to the target and the sender, economic coercion damages none of the economic conditions of the target. This finding suggests that if the objective is to maximize economic pain in the sanctioned country, a sanctioning country should think twice before choosing economic coercion as its primary...
The Korean Journal of International Studies, 2014
His research interests include international conflict, democracy, terrorism, globalization, and m... more His research interests include international conflict, democracy, terrorism, globalization, and methodology. His work has been published in journals such as the
Defence and Peace Economics, 2014
This study examines whether the exclusion of ethnic groups from political power is an important c... more This study examines whether the exclusion of ethnic groups from political power is an important contributing factor to domestic terrorism. To empirically test this question, we employ a negative binomial regression estimation on 130 countries during the period from 1981 to 2005. We find that countries in which certain ethnic populations are excluded from political power are significantly more likely to experience domestic terrorist attacks and to suffer from terrorist casualties; furthermore, ethnic group political exclusion is a more consistent and substantive predictor of domestic terrorist activity than general political repression or economic discrimination.
Oxford Economic Papers, 2014
This study evaluates the controversial issue of whether economic growth exerts a dampening effect... more This study evaluates the controversial issue of whether economic growth exerts a dampening effect on terrorism. Unlike previous studies, it conceptualizes economic growth into two sectors (agricultural and industrial) and categorizes terrorism into three forms (domestic, international, and suicide). It offers a modified theory of hard targets, where richer industrial, but not richer agricultural, countries are more likely to attract suicide attacks. A cross-national, time-series data analysis of 127 countries for 1970-2007 shows evidence that when countries enjoy high levels of industrial growth, they are less disposed to domestic and international terrorist events, but are more likely to experience suicide attacks. These findings indicate that economic growth is not a cure-all solution for terrorism because it may be associated in some instances with more terrorist incidents. Nonetheless, healthy economic conditions are, without doubt, beneficial to the war on terrorism because the majority of suicide attacks occur in only a few countries.
Although the choice of a military manpower system is an important issue, research on it generally... more Although the choice of a military manpower system is an important issue, research on it generally remains out of the 'spotlight' among students of international relations and foreign policy. The reasons for this apparent shortage of interest are various, but lack of cross-national data over an extensive period stands out as a limitation to work so far. To broaden the scope of investigation with respect to military manpower systems, this study introduces international political factors. A multinomial logit model is tested on a pooled time-series, cross-national data set that spans over 100 years. The unit of analysis is the interstate dyad-year. The empirical results show that higher levels of military personnel and expenditure, along with satisfaction with the status quo, are associated with conscription, while democracy and joint memberships in international organizations are linked to a voluntary system.
Journal of Peace Research, 2012
Although several existing studies examine the economic impact of transnational terrorism by refer... more Although several existing studies examine the economic impact of transnational terrorism by referring to its potential to reduce foreign direct investment (FDI), they overlook possible differences in the effects of business-related and non-business-related terrorism. We argue that the former type of terror negatively affects FDI since it damages multinationals’ buildings, destroys their products, kills their employees, and causes a rise in insurance premiums. The latter type of terror, however, does not induce the same ramifications and should thus have little or less influence on a country’s FDI. In order to examine the effects of these two different types of transnational terrorism, we employ three different statistical techniques using data gleaned from the International Terrorism: Attributes of Terrorist Events (ITERATE) dataset. A cross-sectional, time-series data analysis of 123 developing countries during the period from 1980 to 2008 reveals that transnational terrorism that ...
Journal of Peace Research, 2008
Looking beyond the democratic/Kantian peace argument that highlights the pacifying effect of regi... more Looking beyond the democratic/Kantian peace argument that highlights the pacifying effect of regime type on international conflict, this study explores additional, potentially important domestic factors that may influence conflict — most notably, civil—military structure, such as degree of civil versus military control and military manpower system. It also looks into the effects of political communication in terms of diplomatic channels and open media. On the basis of logistic regression analysis for 120 countries during the period from 1950 to 1992, the authors report that strong military influence is more likely to lead to the onset of militarized interstate disputes, wars, and international crises while the presence of conscripted soldiers, diplomatic activities, and open media makes that less likely. These results hold up in the presence of the three Kantian peace variables (i.e. democracy, economic interdependence, and joint membership in international organizations) and other ...
Journal of Conflict Resolution, 2003
In Perpetual Peace, Immanuel Kant presents six preliminary articles for perpetual peace beforethe... more In Perpetual Peace, Immanuel Kant presents six preliminary articles for perpetual peace beforethe three well-known definitive articles about republic constitutions, commercial relations, and international organizations. In his third preliminary article, Kant argues that “Standing Armies ( miles perpetuus) Shall in Time be Totally Abolished” because they are themselves “a cause of offensive war.” Empirical results based on state-of-the-art data analysis that refers to both peace-years correction and distributed-lags logistic regression showthat the most obvious among the neglected preliminary articles by Kant—military manpower system—is indeed connected to involvement in militarized interstate disputes during the period from 1886 to 1992. For neo-Kantian peace theory and research, this means that a military manpower system with conscripted, notstanding (i.e., professional or voluntary), soldiers is associated with disputes.
Journal of Conflict Resolution, 2010
Tsebelis’ veto players theory predicts that legislative veto players constrain the executive’s po... more Tsebelis’ veto players theory predicts that legislative veto players constrain the executive’s political decisions because their approval is needed to implement policy change. This study extends the veto players argument into international conflict literature, specifically in regard to legislative constraints emanating from the number of legislative veto players, their policy preferences, and their internal cohesion. A cross-sectional, time-series dyadic data analysis shows that, in general, an increase of legislative constraints notably reduces the likelihood of the onset of militarized interstate disputes. However, while legislative constraints in democratic and mixed dyads are likely to discourage democratic executives’ use of force, those in autocratic dyads do not produce effective pacifying effects.
Journal of Conflict Resolution, 2010
The question of whether democratic institutions facilitate terrorist activities is a controversia... more The question of whether democratic institutions facilitate terrorist activities is a controversial one in current scientific studies of terrorism. Although the ‘‘rule of law’’ is an essential institutional pillar of any mature democracy, its direct effect on domestic and international terrorism remains unexplored. Conceiving democratic rule of law as the coexistence of effective and impartial judicial systems and citizens’ recognition of the law as legitimate, the author presents a causal explanation in which a high-quality rule of law is considered to dampen ordinary citizens’ opportunity and willingness to engage in political violence, protecting democracies from becoming victims of terrorism. Built on a cross-sectional, time-series data analysis of 131 countries during the period from 1984 to 2004, the author finds that, ceteris paribus, maintaining a sound rule of law notably reduces the likelihood of any type of terrorist events. In short, the rule of law instantiated in democr...
International Studies Quarterly, 2006
Research confirms that interdemocratic conflicts are more likely to be resolved peacefully. Howev... more Research confirms that interdemocratic conflicts are more likely to be resolved peacefully. However, do the usual results hold up for especially contentious issues such as territory? We use issue correlates of war (ICOW) data from 1816 to 1992 to build on Hensel (2001) and related studies to investigate the relationships between and among democracy, conflict management, and territory as an issue. The results create a puzzle for the democratic or neo-Kantian peace: When territory is at stake, issue-related variables come to the fore and matter more than regime type in explaining states' settlement strategies. The most important finding is that war experience between adversaries increases the likelihood of peaceful resolution, but decreases that of militarized disputes. Scientific knowledge is always a work in progress. What is ''known'' today may be overturned tomorrow (Vasquez 2000:335). Democracy, territory, and conflict are central concepts within the study of international politics. Both during and after the Cold War, many students of international conflict have focused on how regime type and state behavior might be connected to each other, most prominently in relation to the democratic peace proposition. Although this research does consider issues in investigating democracies in conflict, few studies pay close attention to how democracies settle their differences when a contentious matter is at stake. Thus, disaggregating cases according to the characteristics of their issues may add to the overall understanding of conflict management and the specifics of the causal relationship between
International Studies Quarterly, 2011
Additional research is needed to corroborate, extend, and even refute the findings reported here.... more Additional research is needed to corroborate, extend, and even refute the findings reported here.'' In response to this open invitation, this study re-evaluates Gartzke's capitalist peace model along with Oneal and Russett's democratic peace model. This study identifies that while the capitalist peace model suffers from model misspecification, observation omission, and sample selection bias, the democratic peace model commits measurement error. After correcting these four problems, this study uncovers that while capitalism does not emerge as a cause mitigating militarized disputes or wars in a consistent manner, democracy does.
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Papers by Seung-whan Choi