The Foreword, prepared by Randolph Kent, director of the Humanitarian Futures Programme of King's... more The Foreword, prepared by Randolph Kent, director of the Humanitarian Futures Programme of King's College of London, offers an independent and bold perspective on the disaster future awaiting contemporary societies, proposing crisis drivers and possible scenarios, as well as an anticipatory methodology where CoPs have a potential role to play.
Introduction: planning from the future 5 1 The importance of the Hindu-Kush Himalaya (HKH) region... more Introduction: planning from the future 5 1 The importance of the Hindu-Kush Himalaya (HKH) region as a water source 7 Geology, water and land use 7 Climate influences and impacts 10 Glaciers and meltwater 10 Ecosystem degradation 11 The effects of climate change 12 2 The people of the HKH region 14 Growing urban populations 14 Environmental migration and displacement 15 Agricultural productivity and water use 17 Water shortages and food security 18 Extraction and loss of groundwater 18 Water wastage 19 Water quality and pollution 20 Hydropower and dam-building 20 Transboundary water management 23 3 Emerging vulnerabilities and crisis drivers of the future 24 Overview 24 Environmental hazards and their impacts 24 Floods and lake outbursts 24 Earthquakes 25 Mass land movements 25 Hazards in deltas and coastal zones 26 Arsenic contamination 26 Fires and atmospheric brown clouds 26 From crisis drivers to crises 27 Food insecurity 27 Mass displacement 27 Habitat and infrastructure collapse 28 Demise of livelihoods 28 Changing disease patterns 28 Rising conflict 29 A matrix of interactions 30 4 Humanitarian perspectives 31 An uncertain future 31 Preparing for humanitarian futures: dimensions and dynamics of future humanitarian crises 31 The present state of play 33 Humanitarian consequences 35 Conclusions and recommendations 36 Conclusions 36 Recommendations 38 References 40 Endnotes 42 Appendix 1: Future stories 45 Contents The context The main natural hazards in the HKH region, identified in Section 1, are earthquakes, extreme weather, windstorms, droughts, floods, mass movements, wildfires and natural contamination. The impacts of all of these may be magnified by environmental and climatic Introduction: planning from the future Introduction 1 The importance of the HKH region as a water source Figure 2: Topographic images of the world and of southern Asia Note: The lowest elevations are purple, medium elevations are greens and yellows, and highest elevations are orange, red and white. Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) Global Digital Elevation Model (GDEM) image released
Cet article affirme qu'il est temps pour les organisations humanitaires d'examiner de fac... more Cet article affirme qu'il est temps pour les organisations humanitaires d'examiner de facon nettement plus systematique tous les facteurs de transformation qui rendront les populations du monde plus vulnerables face aux catastrophes, ainsi que les moyens dont nous disposons pour en attenuer les effets.
Efforts to understand famine, war, and natural disasters have prompted analyses of many prolonged... more Efforts to understand famine, war, and natural disasters have prompted analyses of many prolonged and seemingly intractable crises. No longer referred to merely as civil wars, situations of chronic conflict and violent political instability have been called complex emergencies, chronic emergencies, and complex political emergencies. 1 The UN and other multilateral organisations are engaged in many, but not all (eg, Burma and Algeria), of these emergencies (panel). Complex emergencies involve an intricate web of political, economic, military, and social forces engaged in violence. These emergencies frequently occur in conjunction with and are compounded by public health threats, 2,3 natural disasters (eg, droughts in Afghanistan, Ethiopia, and southern Africa), 4,5 environmental issues (eg, global warming and desertification), 6,7 and sociopolitical processes (eg, globalisation and marginalisation). The term emerging political complexes has been used to describe the systems underlying both the violence and durability of complex emergencies. 8 This term describes the new forms of state or non-state networks that create alternative systems of profit, power, and protection, use systems of globalised trade to obtain the necessary inputs via shadow and parallel economies, and provide defence and administrative functions with little bureaucracy. Emerging political complexes are based on systems of inequality and exploitation and can be thought of as remarkably violent but rational responses to globalisation. 8 Emerging political complexes are highly evolved, and link local, national, regional, and international organisations. 9 These complexes form the foundations for war economies controlled by criminalised networks and fuelled by the illicit extraction of and trade in resources ranging from cattle to timber to sexual slaves. 10 Importantly, these illicit economies are closely linked to legitimate economies and thus are appropriately referred to as parallel or shadow economies. Oil from Angola's battlefields has ended up in American cars, while, for many years, Sierra Leone's diamonds found their way onto brides' fingers throughout the developed world. Involvement in these parallel economies is often central to the survival of many individuals and groups within conflict-affected societies, and provides people with access to livelihoods that they would otherwise be denied. In view of the strength and adaptability of these systems, whether these economies can be made less
RANDOLPH KENT directs the Humanitarian Futures program at King's College London. He has coordinat... more RANDOLPH KENT directs the Humanitarian Futures program at King's College London. He has coordinated UN humanitarian operations
To what extent do the ways in which we anticipate threats, analyze their possible consequences an... more To what extent do the ways in which we anticipate threats, analyze their possible consequences and determine ways to mitigate them explain the causes of warfare in the future? This article – though never attempting to predict – poses plausible causes of future wars that may stem from transformative change over the next two decades. In asking the question “Are we ready?” to deal with such wars, the answer is framed in terms of the interrelationship between the prospect of profound change, emerging tensions, unprecedented violence and organizational capacities to deal with complexity and uncertainty. To be prepared to deal with the prospect of future wars, relevant organizations have to be more anticipatory and adaptive, while at the same time looking for new ways to engage the wider international community. The article concludes with a set of recommendations intended to meet such organizational challenges – with the aspiration that the question “Are we ready?” can be answered more af...
In the foreseeable future, it is more than likely that the types, dimensions, and dynamics of cri... more In the foreseeable future, it is more than likely that the types, dimensions, and dynamics of crisis drivers will increase dramatically, in some instances exponentially. While a growing number of organizations with humanitarian roles and responsibilities sense that such changes are afoot, few have looked at how these might fundamentally affect not only what they do but also how they do it. This article suggests that it is time for humanitarian organizations to look far more systematically at the transformational factors that will increase disaster vulnerabilities around the world and also the opportunities that exist to mitigate them. The article notes that some of the most transformative factors affecting humanitarian action will be the result of new political structures in the post-Western hegemonic world and the growing political centrality of humanitarian crises. The consequences of these and other transformative factors mean that those with humanitarian roles and responsibiliti...
Scientific and technological change will intensify over the next two decades, profoundly affectin... more Scientific and technological change will intensify over the next two decades, profoundly affecting the global economy and the environment, as well as demographic trends and political and security structures in most parts of the world. An unintended consequence may be an exponential rise in human exposure to disasters and emergencies. Such humanitarian crises may, in no small part, be due to planners’ inability to anticipate potential hazards and to appreciate their significance, and to decision-makers’ inability to reconcile competing demands for resources. This article suggests that most disasters and emergencies are the result of an individual and institutional failure to respond effectively to change, new information and contending interests. It explores various psychosocial approaches to individual and group dynamics, and utilises a range of organisational and political-science models to evaluate potential constraints on adaptive capacities. Ultimately, it proposes a five-point strategy to assist both policy-planners and decision-makers in thinking in a more ‘non-linear’ fashion and in being more responsive to the direction and implications of change.
This research attempts to improve understanding of how climate change may affect international hu... more This research attempts to improve understanding of how climate change may affect international humanitarian spending, using existing international databases that track disaster occurrence and humanitarian costs. A range of potential impact scenarios is developed employing four distinct methodological approaches. The findings indicate that climate change will have a significant impact on humanitarian costs and the increase could range from a
The Foreword, prepared by Randolph Kent, director of the Humanitarian Futures Programme of King's... more The Foreword, prepared by Randolph Kent, director of the Humanitarian Futures Programme of King's College of London, offers an independent and bold perspective on the disaster future awaiting contemporary societies, proposing crisis drivers and possible scenarios, as well as an anticipatory methodology where CoPs have a potential role to play.
Introduction: planning from the future 5 1 The importance of the Hindu-Kush Himalaya (HKH) region... more Introduction: planning from the future 5 1 The importance of the Hindu-Kush Himalaya (HKH) region as a water source 7 Geology, water and land use 7 Climate influences and impacts 10 Glaciers and meltwater 10 Ecosystem degradation 11 The effects of climate change 12 2 The people of the HKH region 14 Growing urban populations 14 Environmental migration and displacement 15 Agricultural productivity and water use 17 Water shortages and food security 18 Extraction and loss of groundwater 18 Water wastage 19 Water quality and pollution 20 Hydropower and dam-building 20 Transboundary water management 23 3 Emerging vulnerabilities and crisis drivers of the future 24 Overview 24 Environmental hazards and their impacts 24 Floods and lake outbursts 24 Earthquakes 25 Mass land movements 25 Hazards in deltas and coastal zones 26 Arsenic contamination 26 Fires and atmospheric brown clouds 26 From crisis drivers to crises 27 Food insecurity 27 Mass displacement 27 Habitat and infrastructure collapse 28 Demise of livelihoods 28 Changing disease patterns 28 Rising conflict 29 A matrix of interactions 30 4 Humanitarian perspectives 31 An uncertain future 31 Preparing for humanitarian futures: dimensions and dynamics of future humanitarian crises 31 The present state of play 33 Humanitarian consequences 35 Conclusions and recommendations 36 Conclusions 36 Recommendations 38 References 40 Endnotes 42 Appendix 1: Future stories 45 Contents The context The main natural hazards in the HKH region, identified in Section 1, are earthquakes, extreme weather, windstorms, droughts, floods, mass movements, wildfires and natural contamination. The impacts of all of these may be magnified by environmental and climatic Introduction: planning from the future Introduction 1 The importance of the HKH region as a water source Figure 2: Topographic images of the world and of southern Asia Note: The lowest elevations are purple, medium elevations are greens and yellows, and highest elevations are orange, red and white. Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) Global Digital Elevation Model (GDEM) image released
Cet article affirme qu'il est temps pour les organisations humanitaires d'examiner de fac... more Cet article affirme qu'il est temps pour les organisations humanitaires d'examiner de facon nettement plus systematique tous les facteurs de transformation qui rendront les populations du monde plus vulnerables face aux catastrophes, ainsi que les moyens dont nous disposons pour en attenuer les effets.
Efforts to understand famine, war, and natural disasters have prompted analyses of many prolonged... more Efforts to understand famine, war, and natural disasters have prompted analyses of many prolonged and seemingly intractable crises. No longer referred to merely as civil wars, situations of chronic conflict and violent political instability have been called complex emergencies, chronic emergencies, and complex political emergencies. 1 The UN and other multilateral organisations are engaged in many, but not all (eg, Burma and Algeria), of these emergencies (panel). Complex emergencies involve an intricate web of political, economic, military, and social forces engaged in violence. These emergencies frequently occur in conjunction with and are compounded by public health threats, 2,3 natural disasters (eg, droughts in Afghanistan, Ethiopia, and southern Africa), 4,5 environmental issues (eg, global warming and desertification), 6,7 and sociopolitical processes (eg, globalisation and marginalisation). The term emerging political complexes has been used to describe the systems underlying both the violence and durability of complex emergencies. 8 This term describes the new forms of state or non-state networks that create alternative systems of profit, power, and protection, use systems of globalised trade to obtain the necessary inputs via shadow and parallel economies, and provide defence and administrative functions with little bureaucracy. Emerging political complexes are based on systems of inequality and exploitation and can be thought of as remarkably violent but rational responses to globalisation. 8 Emerging political complexes are highly evolved, and link local, national, regional, and international organisations. 9 These complexes form the foundations for war economies controlled by criminalised networks and fuelled by the illicit extraction of and trade in resources ranging from cattle to timber to sexual slaves. 10 Importantly, these illicit economies are closely linked to legitimate economies and thus are appropriately referred to as parallel or shadow economies. Oil from Angola's battlefields has ended up in American cars, while, for many years, Sierra Leone's diamonds found their way onto brides' fingers throughout the developed world. Involvement in these parallel economies is often central to the survival of many individuals and groups within conflict-affected societies, and provides people with access to livelihoods that they would otherwise be denied. In view of the strength and adaptability of these systems, whether these economies can be made less
RANDOLPH KENT directs the Humanitarian Futures program at King's College London. He has coordinat... more RANDOLPH KENT directs the Humanitarian Futures program at King's College London. He has coordinated UN humanitarian operations
To what extent do the ways in which we anticipate threats, analyze their possible consequences an... more To what extent do the ways in which we anticipate threats, analyze their possible consequences and determine ways to mitigate them explain the causes of warfare in the future? This article – though never attempting to predict – poses plausible causes of future wars that may stem from transformative change over the next two decades. In asking the question “Are we ready?” to deal with such wars, the answer is framed in terms of the interrelationship between the prospect of profound change, emerging tensions, unprecedented violence and organizational capacities to deal with complexity and uncertainty. To be prepared to deal with the prospect of future wars, relevant organizations have to be more anticipatory and adaptive, while at the same time looking for new ways to engage the wider international community. The article concludes with a set of recommendations intended to meet such organizational challenges – with the aspiration that the question “Are we ready?” can be answered more af...
In the foreseeable future, it is more than likely that the types, dimensions, and dynamics of cri... more In the foreseeable future, it is more than likely that the types, dimensions, and dynamics of crisis drivers will increase dramatically, in some instances exponentially. While a growing number of organizations with humanitarian roles and responsibilities sense that such changes are afoot, few have looked at how these might fundamentally affect not only what they do but also how they do it. This article suggests that it is time for humanitarian organizations to look far more systematically at the transformational factors that will increase disaster vulnerabilities around the world and also the opportunities that exist to mitigate them. The article notes that some of the most transformative factors affecting humanitarian action will be the result of new political structures in the post-Western hegemonic world and the growing political centrality of humanitarian crises. The consequences of these and other transformative factors mean that those with humanitarian roles and responsibiliti...
Scientific and technological change will intensify over the next two decades, profoundly affectin... more Scientific and technological change will intensify over the next two decades, profoundly affecting the global economy and the environment, as well as demographic trends and political and security structures in most parts of the world. An unintended consequence may be an exponential rise in human exposure to disasters and emergencies. Such humanitarian crises may, in no small part, be due to planners’ inability to anticipate potential hazards and to appreciate their significance, and to decision-makers’ inability to reconcile competing demands for resources. This article suggests that most disasters and emergencies are the result of an individual and institutional failure to respond effectively to change, new information and contending interests. It explores various psychosocial approaches to individual and group dynamics, and utilises a range of organisational and political-science models to evaluate potential constraints on adaptive capacities. Ultimately, it proposes a five-point strategy to assist both policy-planners and decision-makers in thinking in a more ‘non-linear’ fashion and in being more responsive to the direction and implications of change.
This research attempts to improve understanding of how climate change may affect international hu... more This research attempts to improve understanding of how climate change may affect international humanitarian spending, using existing international databases that track disaster occurrence and humanitarian costs. A range of potential impact scenarios is developed employing four distinct methodological approaches. The findings indicate that climate change will have a significant impact on humanitarian costs and the increase could range from a
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