Papers by Pascale Combes Motel
Cet article examine les effets des politiques d'ouverture commerciale et financière sur l'instabi... more Cet article examine les effets des politiques d'ouverture commerciale et financière sur l'instabilité de la croissance économique à travers un échantillon mondial. Des indicateurs de politique d'ouverture sont construits à partir d'équations de normalisation des taux d'ouverture observés afin d'éliminer l'effet des variables structurelles. Puis un indicateur d'instabilité est calculé ex post sur une série de taux de croissance du produit préalablement purgée de ses composantes non stationnaires. D'un point de vue théorique, on suppose que les politiques d'ouverture commerciale en améliorant le fonctionnement des marchés sont stabilisantes. Au contraire, les politiques d'ouverture financière, lorsque le système financier est trop rudimentaire, comme souvent dans les pays en développement, peuvent contribuer à l'instabilité de la croissance en favorisant des flux de capitaux spéculatifs. L'analyse économétrique conduite sur un échantillon pays-années de tous niveaux de développement, depuis 1970, n'infirme pas ces hypothèses. Abstract This paper considers the effects of a more or less trade and capital openness on the instability of the growth rate. Indicators of outward looking policies are estimated by eliminating the impact of structural factors through a panel standardization equation. Then indicators of growth instability are estimated. Open trade policies are assumed to be stabilizing because they improve the working of markets. But open financial policies, when the financial system is underdeveloped, may increase instability due to speculative capital flows. Econometric analysis relying on a large sample of developed and developing countries for three periods beginning in 1970 allows to not reject these assumptions.
Relationship between the land market, economic growth and land insecurity explained by an overlap... more Relationship between the land market, economic growth and land insecurity explained by an overlapping model. In this paper, we analyze the relationship bet- ween the land market failures and the economic growth in Brazil, starting from an overlapping model including two sectors: agricultural and industrial. The land is both a specific factor for agriculture and an asset that can be
Revue française d'économie, 2000
Cet article examine les effets des politiques d'ouverture commerciale et financière sur l'instabi... more Cet article examine les effets des politiques d'ouverture commerciale et financière sur l'instabilité de la croissance économique à travers un échantillon mondial. Des indicateurs de politique d'ouverture sont construits à partir d'équations de normalisation des taux d'ouverture observés afin d'éliminer l'effet des variables structurelles. Puis un indicateur d'instabilité est calculé ex post sur une série de taux de croissance du produit préalablement purgée de ses composantes non stationnaires. L'hypothèse est que les politiques d'ouverture commerciale en améliorant le fonctionnement des marchés sont stabilisantes. Au contraire, on suppose que les politiques d'ouverture financière, lorsque le système financier est trop rudimentaire, comme souvent dans les pays en développement, peuvent contribuer à l'instabilité de la croissance en favorisant des flux de capitaux spéculatifs. L'analyse économétrique conduite sur un échantillon pays-années de tous niveaux de développement, depuis 1970, n'infirme pas ces hypothèses. Abstract This paper considers the effects of a more or less trade and capital openness on the instability of the growth rate. Indicators of outward looking policies are estimated by eliminating the impact of structural factors through a standardization equation. Then indicators of growth instability are estimated. Open trade policies are assumed to be stabilizing because they improve the working of markets. But open financial policies, when the financial system is underdeveloped, may increase instability due to speculative capital flows. Econometric analysis relying on a large sample of developed and developing countries for three periods beginning in 1970 allows to not reject these assumptions.
Revue d'économie du développement, 2006
In this note we provide a brief survey of the literature about the effects of exports instability... more In this note we provide a brief survey of the literature about the effects of exports instability in developing countries, mainly focused on commodity dependent economies. Whatever the nature of instability, exports instability generate major disturbances in those economies. Exports instability is often considered as a major source of macroeconomic instability that is welfare costly. Exports instability is also risk generating for individual economic agents who take it into account in their economic decisions but cannot get rid of it in the absence of appropriate credit and insurance devices. We thus examine the macroeconomic consequences of export instability, first in the short term, using the Dutch Disease framework, and second its effects on growth. We then examine the effects of instability from a microeconomic point of view.
Nós analisamos nesse artigo as conseqüências da insegurança fundiária no crescimento econômico do... more Nós analisamos nesse artigo as conseqüências da insegurança fundiária no crescimento econômico do Brasil a partir de um modelo dinâmico de uma econômia contendo um setor agrícola e um setor manufaturado. A terra é considerada como sendo um fator de produção específico do setor agrícola e, ao mesmo tempo, um suporte de poupança alternativo ao capital empregado no setor de manufaturas. A arbitragem entre a possessão de capital ou de terra depende dos custos de transação específicos ao ativo fundiário, resultante da insegurança fundiária. A insegurança fundiária diminui o preço da terra e modifica a composição da poupança sendo favorável ao capital. Logo, o modelo permite de estabelecer duas restrições : um efeito negativo da insegurança fundiária no preço da terra e um efeito positivo no crescimento econômico. Essas duas restrições são testadas em dados de painel para os 27 estados brasileiros. A insegurança fundiária é estimada pelo número de ocupantes. Os resultados econométricos não invalidam nosso modelo.
Working …, 1999
This paper considers the effects of a more or less trade and capital openness on the instability ... more This paper considers the effects of a more or less trade and capital openness on the instability of the growth rate. Indicators of outward looking policies are estimated by eliminating the impact of structural factors through a panel standardization equation. Then indicators of growth ...
Improving access to capital through credit and public spendings is an important step toward devel... more Improving access to capital through credit and public spendings is an important step toward development and poverty alleviation. At the same time, deforestation-related activities, like agricultural expansion, can be seen as relying on natural capital, through the depletion of forest resources and the use of land in an extensive way. It is then important to better understand how a better access to capital influence the use of land as a natural capital. This paper assesses the relationship between financial development, public spendings and deforestation. Are they substitute or complement? Our econometric analysis shows that deforestation is positively correlated to access to credit and public spendings, which gives some evidence that natural capital is a complement to credit and public spendings.
The aim of this paper is to examine whether there is a co-insurance mechanism against provincial ... more The aim of this paper is to examine whether there is a co-insurance mechanism against provincial aggregate income fluctuations between the Chinese provinces. Our theoretical argument relies on the existence of an efficient allocation of risk between the Chinese provinces. According to this analysis, an institutional arrangement between the provinces allows the perfect smoothing of provincial private consumption. In this case, changes in provincial private consumption depend rather on changes in aggregate Chinese income than on asymmetric changes in provincial income. We test this hypothesis on the 1989-2000 period for 30 Chinese provinces using the GMM estimator. Econometric evidence highlights the weakness of co-insurance mechanisms between the Chinese provinces. First, we reject the hypothesis of perfect insurance. Second, there does not seem to exist a significant, though imperfect, insurance mechanism. Indeed, the provinces' private consumption reactions are the same either after a shock affecting all the provinces or after an asymmetric shock.
One of the main subjects in the theory of economic growth is to explain regional differences amon... more One of the main subjects in the theory of economic growth is to explain regional differences among rates of growth. In this paper, we address this issue through the notion of the "underdevelopment trap". Such a trap may be the result of strategic complementarities between investment decisions which generate multiple equilibria. The latter may be Pareto inefficient because of technological externalities. We test our model on international pooled data on the period 1970-90. The econometric analysis shows that economic growth rates depend on regional investment decisions. Moreover, it appears that such regional spillovers are channeled mainly through the physical rather than through the human capital stock.
L'article propose d'expliquer l'évolution pro-cyclique de l'épargne en période de... more L'article propose d'expliquer l'évolution pro-cyclique de l'épargne en période de récession repérée en France. Le cadre théorique est celui de l'épargne de précaution qui est constituée par des ménages prudents pour se prémunir des effets de la nature risquée des revenus du travail. En tenant compte des contraintes de liquidité, il n'est pas possible d'infirmer sur des données trimestrielles françaises pour la période 1970 à 1994, l'hypothèse selon laquelle les variations de consommation sont négativement affectées par celles du taux de chômage considérées comme un indicateur de l'évolution des risques.
Ecological Economics, 2013
JEL classification: C12 C83 Q23 O13 Keywords: Meta-analysis Environmental Kuznets Curve Deforesta... more JEL classification: C12 C83 Q23 O13 Keywords: Meta-analysis Environmental Kuznets Curve Deforestation Development
JEL classification: C12 C83 Q23 O13 Keywords: Meta-analysis Environmental Kuznets Curve Deforesta... more JEL classification: C12 C83 Q23 O13 Keywords: Meta-analysis Environmental Kuznets Curve Deforestation Development
Ecological Economics, Jun 1, 2013
Although widely studied, deforestation remains a common research topic. The relationship between ... more Although widely studied, deforestation remains a common research topic. The relationship between economic development and deforestation is still in question. This paper presents a meta-analysis of Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) studies for deforestation. Using 69 studies, offering 547 estimations, we shed light on why EKC results differ. We investigate the incidence of choices made by authors (such as econometric strategy, measure of deforestation, geographical area, and presence of control variables) on the probability of finding an EKC. After a phase of work corroborating the EKC, we find a turning point after the year 2001. Building on our results, we conclude that the EKC story will not fade until theoretical alternatives are provided.
Environment and Resource Economics, Apr 1, 2014
The purpose of this paper is to highlight the detrimental impact of land tenure insecurity on def... more The purpose of this paper is to highlight the detrimental impact of land tenure insecurity on deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon. It is related to recent controversies about the detrimental impact of land laws on deforestation, which seem to legitimize land encroachments. The latter is mainly the result of land tenure insecurity which is a key characteristic of this region and results from a long history of interactions between rural social unrest and land reforms or land laws. A simple model is developed where strategic interactions between farmers lead to excessive deforestation. One of the empirical implications of the model is a positive relationship between land tenure insecurity and the extent of deforestation. The latter is tested on data from a panel of Brazilian Amazon municipalities. The negative effect of land tenure insecurity proxied by the number of squatters on deforestation is not rejected when estimations are controlled for the possible endogeneity of squatters. One of the main policy implications is that ex post legalizations of settlements must be accompanied by the enforcement of environmental obligations.
Ecological Economics, Jan 1, 2009
Working Papers, Jan 1, 2009
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Papers by Pascale Combes Motel