Background Various mathematical modeling approaches are used to provide a robust framework for un... more Background Various mathematical modeling approaches are used to provide a robust framework for understanding the transmission dynamics of infectious diseases in human populations. In an epidemic, models can be used for the analysis of the spread of a disease, forecasting, identifying trends and making parameter estimates which can be used for planning and implementing intervention measures. Methods This study utilizes the classical Susceptible - Infected - Recovered (SIR) model to analyze the evolution of COVID-19 in Zambia during the third wave of infections. The model is fitted to actual COVID-19 data for Zambia for the third wave of the pandemic obtained from the Zambia National Public Health Institute (ZNPHI). The transmission and recovery rates are estimated by minimizing the error between the fitted curve and the real data using the least square approach. Results Model simulations indicate that the basic reproductive number (\({R}_{0}\)) for Zambia is 1.31 meaning that, on ave...
Background Prostate cancer continues to have a high incidence and fatality rate over the world, e... more Background Prostate cancer continues to have a high incidence and fatality rate over the world, especially among those infected with the Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV), with higher mortality in Africa than on other continents. Zambia has one of the highest anticipated prostate cancer death rates, despite modest progress and a little higher than normal prevalence of prostate cancer. As a result, this study examined the survival rates of HIV-infected and HIV-uninfected prostate cancer patients, as well as the variables that influence mortality. Methods We used data from the cancer disease hospital (CDH) in Lusaka, Zambia, to perform a 5-year retrospective cohort analysis of prostate cancer registry data. The data was analysed using a Weibull hazard model at multivariate analysis after doing multiple imputation to deal with missing information in the data. Patients were followed up using mobile phone calls to estimate the contribution of their patients' time from the moment of ...
In this paper, we study the optimization problem confronted by an insurance firm whose management... more In this paper, we study the optimization problem confronted by an insurance firm whose management can control its cash-balance dynamics by adjusting the underlying premium rate. The firm's objective is to minimize the total deviation of its cash-balance process to some pre-set target levels by selecting an appropriate premium policy. We study the problem in a general framework assuming the state process is governed by a stochastic delay differential equation and the classical utility function being replaced by a recursive utility or stochastic differential utility (SDU). We derive a sufficient maximum principle for an optimal control of such a system and apply the result to discuss some optimal premium rate control problems.
Background Various mathematical modeling approaches are used to provide a robust framework for un... more Background Various mathematical modeling approaches are used to provide a robust framework for understanding the transmission dynamics of infectious diseases in human populations. In an epidemic, models can be used for the analysis of the spread of a disease, forecasting, identifying trends and making parameter estimates which can be used for planning and implementing intervention measures. Methods This study utilizes the classical Susceptible - Infected - Recovered (SIR) model to analyze the evolution of COVID-19 in Zambia during the third wave of infections. The model is fitted to actual COVID-19 data for Zambia for the third wave of the pandemic obtained from the Zambia National Public Health Institute (ZNPHI). The transmission and recovery rates are estimated by minimizing the error between the fitted curve and the real data using the least square approach. Results Model simulations indicate that the basic reproductive number (\({R}_{0}\)) for Zambia is 1.31 meaning that, on ave...
Background Prostate cancer continues to have a high incidence and fatality rate over the world, e... more Background Prostate cancer continues to have a high incidence and fatality rate over the world, especially among those infected with the Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV), with higher mortality in Africa than on other continents. Zambia has one of the highest anticipated prostate cancer death rates, despite modest progress and a little higher than normal prevalence of prostate cancer. As a result, this study examined the survival rates of HIV-infected and HIV-uninfected prostate cancer patients, as well as the variables that influence mortality. Methods We used data from the cancer disease hospital (CDH) in Lusaka, Zambia, to perform a 5-year retrospective cohort analysis of prostate cancer registry data. The data was analysed using a Weibull hazard model at multivariate analysis after doing multiple imputation to deal with missing information in the data. Patients were followed up using mobile phone calls to estimate the contribution of their patients' time from the moment of ...
In this paper, we study the optimization problem confronted by an insurance firm whose management... more In this paper, we study the optimization problem confronted by an insurance firm whose management can control its cash-balance dynamics by adjusting the underlying premium rate. The firm's objective is to minimize the total deviation of its cash-balance process to some pre-set target levels by selecting an appropriate premium policy. We study the problem in a general framework assuming the state process is governed by a stochastic delay differential equation and the classical utility function being replaced by a recursive utility or stochastic differential utility (SDU). We derive a sufficient maximum principle for an optimal control of such a system and apply the result to discuss some optimal premium rate control problems.
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Papers by Moses Mwale