ABSTRACT Rapid changes in global climate are likely to alter species assemblages and environmenta... more ABSTRACT Rapid changes in global climate are likely to alter species assemblages and environmental characteristics resulting in novel ecosystems. The ability to predict characteristics of future ecosystems is crucial for environmental planning and the development of effective climate change adaptation strategies. This paper presents an approach for envisioning novel ecosystems in future climates. Focusing on riparian ecosystems, we use qualitative process models to predict likely abiotic and biotic changes in four case study systems: tropical coastal floodplains, temperate streams, high mountain streams and urban riparian zones. We concentrate on functional groups rather than individual species and consider dispersal constraints and the capacity for genetic adaptation. Our scenarios suggest that climatic changes will reduce indigenous diversity, facilitate non-indigenous invasion (especially C4 graminoids), increase fragmentation and result in simplified and less distinctive riparian ecosystems. Compared to models based on biota-environment correlations, process models built on mechanistic understanding (like Bayesian belief networks) are more likely to remain valid under novel climatic conditions. We posit that predictions based on species’ functional traits will facilitate regional comparisons and can highlight effects of climate change on ecosystem structure and function. Ecosystems that have experienced similar modification to that expected under climate change (for example, altered flow regimes of regulated rivers) can be used to help inform and evaluate predictions. By manipulating attributes of these system models (for example, magnitude of climatic changes or adaptation strategies used), implications of various scenarios can be assessed and optimal management strategies identified.
ABSTRACT Riparian ecosystems in the 21st century are likely to play a critical role in determinin... more ABSTRACT Riparian ecosystems in the 21st century are likely to play a critical role in determining the vulnerability of natural and human systems to climate change, and in influencing the capacity of these systems to adapt. Some authors have suggested that riparian ecosystems are particularly vulnerable to climate change impacts due to their high levels of exposure and sensitivity to climatic stimuli, and their history of degradation. Others have highlighted the probable resilience of riparian ecosystems to climate change as a result of their evolution under high levels of climatic and environmental variability. We synthesize current knowledge of the vulnerability of riparian ecosystems to climate change by assessing the potential exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity of their key components and processes, as well as ecosystem functions, goods and services, to projected global climatic changes. We review key pathways for ecological and human adaptation for the maintenance, restoration and enhancement of riparian ecosystem functions, goods and services and present emerging principles for planned adaptation. Our synthesis suggests that, in the absence of adaptation, riparian ecosystems are likely to be highly vulnerable to climate change impacts. However, given the critical role of riparian ecosystem functions in landscapes, as well as the strong links between riparian ecosystems and human well-being, considerable means, motives and opportunities for strategically planned adaptation to climate change also exist. The need for planned adaptation of and for riparian ecosystems is likely to be strengthened as the importance of many riparian ecosystem functions, goods and services will grow under a changing climate. Consequently, riparian ecosystems are likely to become adaptation ‘hotspots’ as the century unfolds.
eLong-term datasets needed to detect the impacts of global change on southern biodiversity are st... more eLong-term datasets needed to detect the impacts of global change on southern biodiversity are still scarce and often incomplete, challenging adaptation planning and conservation management. Biological data are probably most limited in arid countries and from the oceans, where natural environmental variability ('noise') means that long time series are required to detect the 'signal' of directional change. Significant national and international investment and collaboration are needed for most southern nations to reliably track biodiversity trends and improve conservation adaptation to rapid climate change. Emerging early warning systems for biodiversity, incorporating regional environmental change drivers, citizen science and regional partnerships, can all help to compensate for existing information gaps and contribute to adaptation planning.
Many indigenous people in the Pacific forecast seasonal climate conditions through observation an... more Many indigenous people in the Pacific forecast seasonal climate conditions through observation and monitoring of meteorological, astronomical and biological indicators (e.g. behavior of plants and animals). Built over many generations, these knowledge systems are adapted to local conditions to cope with a highly variable and vulnerable environment. Traditional climate knowledge systems continue to influence all aspects of modern Pacific livelihoods from agricultural productivity to disaster response and recovery. In recent years, alternative forecasting methods have been promoted by national meteorological services based on statistical and dynamical modelling of the climate system. However, in some locations, uptake of these ‘new’ methods is low with locals continuing to use traditional forecasts for many reasons including inadequate access to the new forecasts, insufficient trust in new forecasting methods or historical usefulness of traditional forecasts. Enabling adaptation to ch...
Many indigenous people in the Pacific forecast seasonal climate conditions through observation an... more Many indigenous people in the Pacific forecast seasonal climate conditions through observation and monitoring of meteorological, astronomical and biological indicators (e.g. behavior of plants and animals). Built over many generations, these knowledge systems are adapted to local conditions to cope with a highly variable and vulnerable environment. Traditional climate knowledge systems continue to influence all aspects of modern Pacific livelihoods from agricultural productivity to disaster response and recovery. In recent years, alternative forecasting methods have been promoted by national meteorological services based on statistical and dynamical modelling of the climate system. However, in some locations, uptake of these ‘new’ methods is low with locals continuing to use traditional forecasts for many reasons including inadequate access to the new forecasts, insufficient trust in new forecasting methods or historical usefulness of traditional forecasts. Enabling adaptation to ch...
ABSTRACT A dense network of stations in Australia and New Zealand, including urbanised sites, was... more ABSTRACT A dense network of stations in Australia and New Zealand, including urbanised sites, was analysed to assess urbanisation effects on indices of extreme temperature, type of distribution change observed, and relationships with key climate drivers (El Niño – Southern Oscillation (ENSO), sea-surface temperature (SST) and mean sea-level pressure (MSLP) patterns). A strong spatial and temporal coherence of trends in extreme temperature indices was notable across both rural and urban stations, except for diurnal temperature range which was strongly influenced by urbanisation and biased by data limitations. Increased mean maximum and mean minimum temperature, general increases in hot days and warm nights, and decreases in cool days and cold nights, persisted over three analysis periods (1931-2005, 1946-2005 and 1961-2005), with the proportion of significant trends increasing as analysis period lengthened for all indices except hot days. Rural stations had fewer significant increasing trends in warm extremes, while urbanised sites showed a greater number of significant hot day increases. Strong correlations were found between measures of mean temperature and temperature extremes, consistent across all three analysis periods and largely independent of urban status. The most common form of distributional change, for both maximum and minimum temperature, involved a significant shift in the mean and one or both extremes. However, the proportion of stations with this type of distribution shift reduced in the later period, with relatively more stations having no distribution change, or shifts in the mean (but not extremes) over 1961-2005, possibly due to a change in the relationship between ENSO and temperature and/or the effects of rapid population growth since the 1950s. This study indicates that measures of ENSO, such as NINO3.4 or our second MSLP pattern, have the potential to better predict temperature extremes over large areas of Australasia, especially eastern Australia, compared to other broadscale climate indices, such as near-global SST patterns.
ABSTRACT A dense network of stations in Australia and New Zealand, including urbanised sites, was... more ABSTRACT A dense network of stations in Australia and New Zealand, including urbanised sites, was analysed to assess urbanisation effects on indices of extreme temperature, type of distribution change observed, and relationships with key climate drivers (El Niño – Southern Oscillation (ENSO), sea-surface temperature (SST) and mean sea-level pressure (MSLP) patterns). A strong spatial and temporal coherence of trends in extreme temperature indices was notable across both rural and urban stations, except for diurnal temperature range which was strongly influenced by urbanisation and biased by data limitations. Increased mean maximum and mean minimum temperature, general increases in hot days and warm nights, and decreases in cool days and cold nights, persisted over three analysis periods (1931-2005, 1946-2005 and 1961-2005), with the proportion of significant trends increasing as analysis period lengthened for all indices except hot days. Rural stations had fewer significant increasing trends in warm extremes, while urbanised sites showed a greater number of significant hot day increases. Strong correlations were found between measures of mean temperature and temperature extremes, consistent across all three analysis periods and largely independent of urban status. The most common form of distributional change, for both maximum and minimum temperature, involved a significant shift in the mean and one or both extremes. However, the proportion of stations with this type of distribution shift reduced in the later period, with relatively more stations having no distribution change, or shifts in the mean (but not extremes) over 1961-2005, possibly due to a change in the relationship between ENSO and temperature and/or the effects of rapid population growth since the 1950s. This study indicates that measures of ENSO, such as NINO3.4 or our second MSLP pattern, have the potential to better predict temperature extremes over large areas of Australasia, especially eastern Australia, compared to other broadscale climate indices, such as near-global SST patterns.
... The average life expectancy of breeding adult birds is approximately 6.5 years (Reilly &a... more ... The average life expectancy of breeding adult birds is approximately 6.5 years (Reilly & Cullen 1979, Dann & ... PETER DANN1, MELANIE CARRON2, BETTY CHAMBERS2, LYNDA CHAMBERS2, TONY DORNOM2, AUSTIN MCLAUGHLIN2, BARB SHARP2, MARY ELLEN ...
Seabirds are one of the most threatened groups of birds globally and, overall, their conservation... more Seabirds are one of the most threatened groups of birds globally and, overall, their conservation status is deteriorating rapidly. Southern hemisphere countries are overrepresented in the number of species of conservation concern yet long-term phenological data on seabirds in the southern hemisphere is limited. A better understanding of the implications of changes in the marine and terrestrial environments to seabird species is required in order to improve their management and conservation status. Here we conducted a metaanalysis of the phenological drivers and trends among southern hemisphere seabirds. Overall there was a general trend towards later phenological events over time (34 % of all data series, N = 47; 67 % of all significant trends), though this varied by taxa and location. The strongest trends towards later events were for seabirds breeding in Australia, the Laridae (gulls, noddies, terns) and migratory southern polar seabirds. In contrast, earlier phenologies were more often observed for the Spheniscidae (penguins) and for other seabirds breeding in the Antarctic and subantarctic. Phenological changes were most often associated with changes in oceanographic conditions, with sea-ice playing an important role for more southerly species. For some species in some locations, such as the Little Penguin Eudyptula minor in south-eastern Australia, warmer oceans projected under various climate change scenarios are expected to correspond to increased seabird productivity, manifested through earlier breeding, heavier chicks, an increased chance of double brooding, at least in the short-term.
The Emu: official organ of the Australasian Ornithologists' Union
Abstract. Spatial and temporal variation in the breeding of Masked Lapwings (Vanellus miles) in A... more Abstract. Spatial and temporal variation in the breeding of Masked Lapwings (Vanellus miles) in Australia were examined using data from Birds Australia’s Nest Record Scheme (NRS; 1957–2002), the Atlas of Australian Birds (1998–2006), and climatic data (1952–2006). Breeding in north-western Australia was concentrated in summer, while in other regions the peak of breeding occurred during spring. Breeding success varied between regions and years but was generally highest in Tasmania. Clutch-size (mean 3.57 eggs ± 0.033 s.e., n = 549 clutches) did not vary regionally or temporally. In the northeast, breeding became earlier over time (~1.9 days per year, NRS), while in the south-east, breeding became later (~0.9 days per year); in other regions temporal trends were not evident. Only Tasmania showed a significant temporal change in breeding success (decrease of ~1.5% per year). All regions experienced warming climates, and annual rainfall increased in north-western regions and decreased i...
Climate and competition influence seabird population size yet are rarely considered simultaneousl... more Climate and competition influence seabird population size yet are rarely considered simultaneously. Here, we consider the influence of climate on nominal abundance trends, and test for evidence of interspecific competition based on 31 yr of count data from 3 co-occurring gull species in southeastern Tasmania. The silver gull Chroicocephalus novaehollandiae and Pacific gull Larus pacificus are native, while the kelp gull L. dominicanus established in Tasmania from New Zealand in the 1950s. We applied population growth models where either growth rate or carrying capacity was a function of both large-scale climate variables and local conditions. For the kelp gull, a null model without any climate variables was selected, consistent with recent population establishment and increase. For the 2 native species, climate covariates were included, and for both, wind speed was important; for Pacific gulls, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and regional sea surface temperature were also included in the selected model. These results are consistent with bottom-up forcing in the southeastern Tasmanian marine ecosystem; increased wind forcing leads to increased productivity and higher abundance of an important euphausiid prey species (Nyctiphanes australis). In years with lower wind speeds, warmer waters and higher water column stability, N. australis production is reduced. Models allowing competition effects by the kelp gull on the 2 native species performed poorly relative to models with climate covariates. Thus, competition alone is not a sufficient explanatory factor for observed changes in the 2 native species, and management strategies to maintain populations of the endemic Pacific gull should seek to reduce other stressors, including factors related to climate change.
Antarctica was the last continent to be discovered and colonized by people, and this has resulted... more Antarctica was the last continent to be discovered and colonized by people, and this has resulted in generally sparse meteorological, oceanographic and biological data for the Antarctic and much of the Southern Ocean. Within the Antarctic region, here defined to include all regions south of the Antarctic Polar Front, much of the land-based biological research occurs at or near international scientific stations, leading to some regions, such as the Amundsen Sea, being poorly researched. In the last decade, evidence has emerged of significant differences, but also some similarities, in species’ responses to changing environmental condi-tions, including climate change. However, most of the studies have been confined to larger organisms, such as seabirds and marine mammals, with few long-term studies on the phenology of plants, invertebrates and other species. This highlights the need for greater spatial and species coverage in the southern regions of the globe to assess and quantify re...
Using a 40 yr demographic database of little penguins Eudyptula minor, we investigated anticipate... more Using a 40 yr demographic database of little penguins Eudyptula minor, we investigated anticipated impacts of climatic changes on the penguin population at Phillip Island, southeastern Australia, and the potential economic impact on the associated tourism industry over the next century. We project a small loss of penguin breeding habitat due to sea level rise, although breeding habitat is unlikely to be limiting over this period. However, some erosion in the vicinity of tourism infrastructure will undoubtedly occur which will have economic implications. We anti cipate little direct impact of decreased rainfall and humidity. However, fire risk may increase, and extreme climate events may reduce adult and chick survival slightly. Warmer oceans are likely to improve recruitment into the breeding population but the effect on adult survival is unclear. Overall, many aspects of little penguin biology are likely to be affected by climatic change but no net negative effect on population siz...
Many indigenous people in the Pacific forecast seasonal climate conditions through observation an... more Many indigenous people in the Pacific forecast seasonal climate conditions through observation and monitoring of meteorological, astronomical and biological indicators (e.g. behavior of plants and animals). Built over many generations, these knowledge systems are adapted to local conditions to cope with a highly variable and vulnerable environment. Traditional climate knowledge systems continue to influence all aspects of modern Pacific livelihoods from agricultural productivity to disaster response and recovery. In recent years, alternative forecasting methods have been promoted by national meteorological services based on statistical and dynamical modelling of the climate system. However, in some locations, uptake of these ‘new’ methods is low with locals continuing to use traditional forecasts for many reasons including inadequate access to the new forecasts, insufficient trust in new forecasting methods or historical usefulness of traditional forecasts. Enabling adaptation to ch...
ABSTRACT Rapid changes in global climate are likely to alter species assemblages and environmenta... more ABSTRACT Rapid changes in global climate are likely to alter species assemblages and environmental characteristics resulting in novel ecosystems. The ability to predict characteristics of future ecosystems is crucial for environmental planning and the development of effective climate change adaptation strategies. This paper presents an approach for envisioning novel ecosystems in future climates. Focusing on riparian ecosystems, we use qualitative process models to predict likely abiotic and biotic changes in four case study systems: tropical coastal floodplains, temperate streams, high mountain streams and urban riparian zones. We concentrate on functional groups rather than individual species and consider dispersal constraints and the capacity for genetic adaptation. Our scenarios suggest that climatic changes will reduce indigenous diversity, facilitate non-indigenous invasion (especially C4 graminoids), increase fragmentation and result in simplified and less distinctive riparian ecosystems. Compared to models based on biota-environment correlations, process models built on mechanistic understanding (like Bayesian belief networks) are more likely to remain valid under novel climatic conditions. We posit that predictions based on species’ functional traits will facilitate regional comparisons and can highlight effects of climate change on ecosystem structure and function. Ecosystems that have experienced similar modification to that expected under climate change (for example, altered flow regimes of regulated rivers) can be used to help inform and evaluate predictions. By manipulating attributes of these system models (for example, magnitude of climatic changes or adaptation strategies used), implications of various scenarios can be assessed and optimal management strategies identified.
ABSTRACT Riparian ecosystems in the 21st century are likely to play a critical role in determinin... more ABSTRACT Riparian ecosystems in the 21st century are likely to play a critical role in determining the vulnerability of natural and human systems to climate change, and in influencing the capacity of these systems to adapt. Some authors have suggested that riparian ecosystems are particularly vulnerable to climate change impacts due to their high levels of exposure and sensitivity to climatic stimuli, and their history of degradation. Others have highlighted the probable resilience of riparian ecosystems to climate change as a result of their evolution under high levels of climatic and environmental variability. We synthesize current knowledge of the vulnerability of riparian ecosystems to climate change by assessing the potential exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity of their key components and processes, as well as ecosystem functions, goods and services, to projected global climatic changes. We review key pathways for ecological and human adaptation for the maintenance, restoration and enhancement of riparian ecosystem functions, goods and services and present emerging principles for planned adaptation. Our synthesis suggests that, in the absence of adaptation, riparian ecosystems are likely to be highly vulnerable to climate change impacts. However, given the critical role of riparian ecosystem functions in landscapes, as well as the strong links between riparian ecosystems and human well-being, considerable means, motives and opportunities for strategically planned adaptation to climate change also exist. The need for planned adaptation of and for riparian ecosystems is likely to be strengthened as the importance of many riparian ecosystem functions, goods and services will grow under a changing climate. Consequently, riparian ecosystems are likely to become adaptation ‘hotspots’ as the century unfolds.
eLong-term datasets needed to detect the impacts of global change on southern biodiversity are st... more eLong-term datasets needed to detect the impacts of global change on southern biodiversity are still scarce and often incomplete, challenging adaptation planning and conservation management. Biological data are probably most limited in arid countries and from the oceans, where natural environmental variability ('noise') means that long time series are required to detect the 'signal' of directional change. Significant national and international investment and collaboration are needed for most southern nations to reliably track biodiversity trends and improve conservation adaptation to rapid climate change. Emerging early warning systems for biodiversity, incorporating regional environmental change drivers, citizen science and regional partnerships, can all help to compensate for existing information gaps and contribute to adaptation planning.
Many indigenous people in the Pacific forecast seasonal climate conditions through observation an... more Many indigenous people in the Pacific forecast seasonal climate conditions through observation and monitoring of meteorological, astronomical and biological indicators (e.g. behavior of plants and animals). Built over many generations, these knowledge systems are adapted to local conditions to cope with a highly variable and vulnerable environment. Traditional climate knowledge systems continue to influence all aspects of modern Pacific livelihoods from agricultural productivity to disaster response and recovery. In recent years, alternative forecasting methods have been promoted by national meteorological services based on statistical and dynamical modelling of the climate system. However, in some locations, uptake of these ‘new’ methods is low with locals continuing to use traditional forecasts for many reasons including inadequate access to the new forecasts, insufficient trust in new forecasting methods or historical usefulness of traditional forecasts. Enabling adaptation to ch...
Many indigenous people in the Pacific forecast seasonal climate conditions through observation an... more Many indigenous people in the Pacific forecast seasonal climate conditions through observation and monitoring of meteorological, astronomical and biological indicators (e.g. behavior of plants and animals). Built over many generations, these knowledge systems are adapted to local conditions to cope with a highly variable and vulnerable environment. Traditional climate knowledge systems continue to influence all aspects of modern Pacific livelihoods from agricultural productivity to disaster response and recovery. In recent years, alternative forecasting methods have been promoted by national meteorological services based on statistical and dynamical modelling of the climate system. However, in some locations, uptake of these ‘new’ methods is low with locals continuing to use traditional forecasts for many reasons including inadequate access to the new forecasts, insufficient trust in new forecasting methods or historical usefulness of traditional forecasts. Enabling adaptation to ch...
ABSTRACT A dense network of stations in Australia and New Zealand, including urbanised sites, was... more ABSTRACT A dense network of stations in Australia and New Zealand, including urbanised sites, was analysed to assess urbanisation effects on indices of extreme temperature, type of distribution change observed, and relationships with key climate drivers (El Niño – Southern Oscillation (ENSO), sea-surface temperature (SST) and mean sea-level pressure (MSLP) patterns). A strong spatial and temporal coherence of trends in extreme temperature indices was notable across both rural and urban stations, except for diurnal temperature range which was strongly influenced by urbanisation and biased by data limitations. Increased mean maximum and mean minimum temperature, general increases in hot days and warm nights, and decreases in cool days and cold nights, persisted over three analysis periods (1931-2005, 1946-2005 and 1961-2005), with the proportion of significant trends increasing as analysis period lengthened for all indices except hot days. Rural stations had fewer significant increasing trends in warm extremes, while urbanised sites showed a greater number of significant hot day increases. Strong correlations were found between measures of mean temperature and temperature extremes, consistent across all three analysis periods and largely independent of urban status. The most common form of distributional change, for both maximum and minimum temperature, involved a significant shift in the mean and one or both extremes. However, the proportion of stations with this type of distribution shift reduced in the later period, with relatively more stations having no distribution change, or shifts in the mean (but not extremes) over 1961-2005, possibly due to a change in the relationship between ENSO and temperature and/or the effects of rapid population growth since the 1950s. This study indicates that measures of ENSO, such as NINO3.4 or our second MSLP pattern, have the potential to better predict temperature extremes over large areas of Australasia, especially eastern Australia, compared to other broadscale climate indices, such as near-global SST patterns.
ABSTRACT A dense network of stations in Australia and New Zealand, including urbanised sites, was... more ABSTRACT A dense network of stations in Australia and New Zealand, including urbanised sites, was analysed to assess urbanisation effects on indices of extreme temperature, type of distribution change observed, and relationships with key climate drivers (El Niño – Southern Oscillation (ENSO), sea-surface temperature (SST) and mean sea-level pressure (MSLP) patterns). A strong spatial and temporal coherence of trends in extreme temperature indices was notable across both rural and urban stations, except for diurnal temperature range which was strongly influenced by urbanisation and biased by data limitations. Increased mean maximum and mean minimum temperature, general increases in hot days and warm nights, and decreases in cool days and cold nights, persisted over three analysis periods (1931-2005, 1946-2005 and 1961-2005), with the proportion of significant trends increasing as analysis period lengthened for all indices except hot days. Rural stations had fewer significant increasing trends in warm extremes, while urbanised sites showed a greater number of significant hot day increases. Strong correlations were found between measures of mean temperature and temperature extremes, consistent across all three analysis periods and largely independent of urban status. The most common form of distributional change, for both maximum and minimum temperature, involved a significant shift in the mean and one or both extremes. However, the proportion of stations with this type of distribution shift reduced in the later period, with relatively more stations having no distribution change, or shifts in the mean (but not extremes) over 1961-2005, possibly due to a change in the relationship between ENSO and temperature and/or the effects of rapid population growth since the 1950s. This study indicates that measures of ENSO, such as NINO3.4 or our second MSLP pattern, have the potential to better predict temperature extremes over large areas of Australasia, especially eastern Australia, compared to other broadscale climate indices, such as near-global SST patterns.
... The average life expectancy of breeding adult birds is approximately 6.5 years (Reilly &a... more ... The average life expectancy of breeding adult birds is approximately 6.5 years (Reilly & Cullen 1979, Dann & ... PETER DANN1, MELANIE CARRON2, BETTY CHAMBERS2, LYNDA CHAMBERS2, TONY DORNOM2, AUSTIN MCLAUGHLIN2, BARB SHARP2, MARY ELLEN ...
Seabirds are one of the most threatened groups of birds globally and, overall, their conservation... more Seabirds are one of the most threatened groups of birds globally and, overall, their conservation status is deteriorating rapidly. Southern hemisphere countries are overrepresented in the number of species of conservation concern yet long-term phenological data on seabirds in the southern hemisphere is limited. A better understanding of the implications of changes in the marine and terrestrial environments to seabird species is required in order to improve their management and conservation status. Here we conducted a metaanalysis of the phenological drivers and trends among southern hemisphere seabirds. Overall there was a general trend towards later phenological events over time (34 % of all data series, N = 47; 67 % of all significant trends), though this varied by taxa and location. The strongest trends towards later events were for seabirds breeding in Australia, the Laridae (gulls, noddies, terns) and migratory southern polar seabirds. In contrast, earlier phenologies were more often observed for the Spheniscidae (penguins) and for other seabirds breeding in the Antarctic and subantarctic. Phenological changes were most often associated with changes in oceanographic conditions, with sea-ice playing an important role for more southerly species. For some species in some locations, such as the Little Penguin Eudyptula minor in south-eastern Australia, warmer oceans projected under various climate change scenarios are expected to correspond to increased seabird productivity, manifested through earlier breeding, heavier chicks, an increased chance of double brooding, at least in the short-term.
The Emu: official organ of the Australasian Ornithologists' Union
Abstract. Spatial and temporal variation in the breeding of Masked Lapwings (Vanellus miles) in A... more Abstract. Spatial and temporal variation in the breeding of Masked Lapwings (Vanellus miles) in Australia were examined using data from Birds Australia’s Nest Record Scheme (NRS; 1957–2002), the Atlas of Australian Birds (1998–2006), and climatic data (1952–2006). Breeding in north-western Australia was concentrated in summer, while in other regions the peak of breeding occurred during spring. Breeding success varied between regions and years but was generally highest in Tasmania. Clutch-size (mean 3.57 eggs ± 0.033 s.e., n = 549 clutches) did not vary regionally or temporally. In the northeast, breeding became earlier over time (~1.9 days per year, NRS), while in the south-east, breeding became later (~0.9 days per year); in other regions temporal trends were not evident. Only Tasmania showed a significant temporal change in breeding success (decrease of ~1.5% per year). All regions experienced warming climates, and annual rainfall increased in north-western regions and decreased i...
Climate and competition influence seabird population size yet are rarely considered simultaneousl... more Climate and competition influence seabird population size yet are rarely considered simultaneously. Here, we consider the influence of climate on nominal abundance trends, and test for evidence of interspecific competition based on 31 yr of count data from 3 co-occurring gull species in southeastern Tasmania. The silver gull Chroicocephalus novaehollandiae and Pacific gull Larus pacificus are native, while the kelp gull L. dominicanus established in Tasmania from New Zealand in the 1950s. We applied population growth models where either growth rate or carrying capacity was a function of both large-scale climate variables and local conditions. For the kelp gull, a null model without any climate variables was selected, consistent with recent population establishment and increase. For the 2 native species, climate covariates were included, and for both, wind speed was important; for Pacific gulls, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and regional sea surface temperature were also included in the selected model. These results are consistent with bottom-up forcing in the southeastern Tasmanian marine ecosystem; increased wind forcing leads to increased productivity and higher abundance of an important euphausiid prey species (Nyctiphanes australis). In years with lower wind speeds, warmer waters and higher water column stability, N. australis production is reduced. Models allowing competition effects by the kelp gull on the 2 native species performed poorly relative to models with climate covariates. Thus, competition alone is not a sufficient explanatory factor for observed changes in the 2 native species, and management strategies to maintain populations of the endemic Pacific gull should seek to reduce other stressors, including factors related to climate change.
Antarctica was the last continent to be discovered and colonized by people, and this has resulted... more Antarctica was the last continent to be discovered and colonized by people, and this has resulted in generally sparse meteorological, oceanographic and biological data for the Antarctic and much of the Southern Ocean. Within the Antarctic region, here defined to include all regions south of the Antarctic Polar Front, much of the land-based biological research occurs at or near international scientific stations, leading to some regions, such as the Amundsen Sea, being poorly researched. In the last decade, evidence has emerged of significant differences, but also some similarities, in species’ responses to changing environmental condi-tions, including climate change. However, most of the studies have been confined to larger organisms, such as seabirds and marine mammals, with few long-term studies on the phenology of plants, invertebrates and other species. This highlights the need for greater spatial and species coverage in the southern regions of the globe to assess and quantify re...
Using a 40 yr demographic database of little penguins Eudyptula minor, we investigated anticipate... more Using a 40 yr demographic database of little penguins Eudyptula minor, we investigated anticipated impacts of climatic changes on the penguin population at Phillip Island, southeastern Australia, and the potential economic impact on the associated tourism industry over the next century. We project a small loss of penguin breeding habitat due to sea level rise, although breeding habitat is unlikely to be limiting over this period. However, some erosion in the vicinity of tourism infrastructure will undoubtedly occur which will have economic implications. We anti cipate little direct impact of decreased rainfall and humidity. However, fire risk may increase, and extreme climate events may reduce adult and chick survival slightly. Warmer oceans are likely to improve recruitment into the breeding population but the effect on adult survival is unclear. Overall, many aspects of little penguin biology are likely to be affected by climatic change but no net negative effect on population siz...
Many indigenous people in the Pacific forecast seasonal climate conditions through observation an... more Many indigenous people in the Pacific forecast seasonal climate conditions through observation and monitoring of meteorological, astronomical and biological indicators (e.g. behavior of plants and animals). Built over many generations, these knowledge systems are adapted to local conditions to cope with a highly variable and vulnerable environment. Traditional climate knowledge systems continue to influence all aspects of modern Pacific livelihoods from agricultural productivity to disaster response and recovery. In recent years, alternative forecasting methods have been promoted by national meteorological services based on statistical and dynamical modelling of the climate system. However, in some locations, uptake of these ‘new’ methods is low with locals continuing to use traditional forecasts for many reasons including inadequate access to the new forecasts, insufficient trust in new forecasting methods or historical usefulness of traditional forecasts. Enabling adaptation to ch...
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Papers by Lynda Chambers