In the absence of effective world-wide cooperation to curb global warming, import tariffs on embo... more In the absence of effective world-wide cooperation to curb global warming, import tariffs on embodied carbon have been proposed as a potential supplement to unilateral emissions pricing. We consider alternative designs for such tariffs, and analyze their effects on global welfare within a multi-region, multi-sector computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of global trade and energy. Our analysis suggests that the
We consider an international emissions trading scheme with partial sectoral and regional coverage... more We consider an international emissions trading scheme with partial sectoral and regional coverage. Sectoral and regional expansion of the trading scheme is beneficial in aggregate, but not necessarily for individual countries. We simulate international CO2 emission quota markets using marginal abatement cost functions and the Copenhagen 2020 climate policy targets for selected countries that strategically allocate emissions in a bid
This article discusses how different climate policy instruments such as CO2 taxes and renewable e... more This article discusses how different climate policy instruments such as CO2 taxes and renewable energy subsidies affect the profitability of fossil-fuel production, given that a fixed global climate target shall be achieved in the long term. Within an intertemporal framework, the model analyses show that CO2 taxes reduce the short-term profitability to a greater extent than technology subsidies, since the
This paper provides a survey of top-down modelling studies on mitigation costs and ancillary bene... more This paper provides a survey of top-down modelling studies on mitigation costs and ancillary benefits in the Nordic countries, the UK and Ireland. Special emphasise is put on results concerning revenue recycling, double dividend, distributional effects, and ancillary benefits. According to the papers surveyed, modest emissions restrictions as those given by the Kyoto Protocol, can be met without substantial costs for the countries studied.
This paper addresses the impact of endogenous technology through research and development (R&D) a... more This paper addresses the impact of endogenous technology through research and development (R&D) and learning by doing (LbD) on the timing of environmental policy. We develop two models, the first with R&D and the second with LbD. We study the interaction between environmental taxes and innovation externalities in a dynamic economy and prove policy equivalence between the second-best R&D and
In this paper we focus on how an international climate treaty will influence the exploration of o... more In this paper we focus on how an international climate treaty will influence the exploration of oil in Non-OPEC countries. We present a numerical intertemporal global equilibrium model for the fossil fuel markets. The international oil market is modelled with a cartel (OPEC) and a competitive fringe on the supply side, following a Nash-Cournot approach. An initial resource base for
In this paper, we analyze how oilrig activity in different non-OPEC regions is affected by the cr... more In this paper, we analyze how oilrig activity in different non-OPEC regions is affected by the crude oil price. We estimate relationships between oilrig activity and crude oil prices using dynamic regression models augmented with latent components capturing trend and seasonality. The results generally show a positive relationship between oilrig activity and the crude oil price, but the strength of
Using a computable equilibrium model, the short-run effects of a radical liberalization of the We... more Using a computable equilibrium model, the short-run effects of a radical liberalization of the West European natural gas and electricity markets are examined. In each model country, oil, gas, coal and electricity are produced, traded and consumed. There are world markets for oil and coal, and well-integrated competitive markets for gas and electricity in Western Europe. Gas and electricity are
We study the role of technology subsidies in climate policies, using a simple dynamic equilibrium... more We study the role of technology subsidies in climate policies, using a simple dynamic equilibrium model with learning by doing. The optimal subsidy rate of a carbon-free technology is high when the technology is first adopted, but falls significantly over the next decades. However, the efficiency costs of uniform instead of optimal subsidies, may be low if there are adjustment
This paper addresses the timing and interdependence between innovation and environmental policy i... more This paper addresses the timing and interdependence between innovation and environmental policy in a model of research and development (R&D). On a first-best path the environmental tax is set at the Pigouvian level, independent of innovation policy. With infinite patent lifetime, the R&D subsidy should be constant and independent of the state of the environment. However, with finite patent lifetime,
This paper examines how the existence of an upstream abatement technology sector affects optimal ... more This paper examines how the existence of an upstream abatement technology sector affects optimal environmental policy. We explore whether the policy should be especially stringent in order to spur a successful export industry based on abatement technology. Furthermore, we investigate if a stringent policy can be used to increase competition in the upstream sector. Our point of departure is a three-stage game between a government in a country with a polluting downstream industry, and a limited number of upstream firms supplying abatement technologies. The government moves first, and may use its environmental policy strategically to influence the behavior of the upstream technology firms. We find that an especially stringent environmental policy towards the polluting downstream sector may be well founded, as it increases competition between the technology suppliers, leading to lower abatement costs. However, to our surprise, an especially stringent environmental policy is not a particularly good industrial policy with respect to developing successful new export sectors based on abatement technology.
This paper addresses the impact of endogenous technology through research and development (R&D) a... more This paper addresses the impact of endogenous technology through research and development (R&D) and learning by doing (LbD) on the timing of environmental policy. We develop two models, the first with R&D and the second with LbD. We study the interaction between environmental taxes and innovation externalities in a dynamic economy and prove policy equivalence between the second-best R&D and the LbD model. Our analysis shows that the difference found in the literature between optimal environmental policy in R&D and LbD models can partly be traced back to the set of policy instruments available, rather than being directly linked to the source of technological innovation. Arguments for early action in LbD models carry over to a second-best R&D setting. We show that environmental taxes should be high compared to the Pigouvian levels when an abatement industry is developing. We illustrate our analysis through numerical simulations on climate change policy.
We explore a hypothesis that a change in investment behaviour among international oil companies (... more We explore a hypothesis that a change in investment behaviour among international oil companies (IOC) towards the end of the 1990s had long-lived effects on OPEC strategies, and on oil price formation. Coordinated investment constraints were imposed on the IOCs through financial market pressures for improved short-term profitability in the wake of the Asian economic crisis. We apply a partial
Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 2002
In this paper we focus on how an international climate treaty will influence the exploration of o... more In this paper we focus on how an international climate treaty will influence the exploration of oil in non-OPEC countries. We present a numerical intertemporal global equilibrium model for the fossil fuel markets. The international oil market is modelled with a cartel (OPEC) and a competitive fringe on the supply side, following a Nash–Cournot approach. An initial resource base for
This paper addresses the impact of endogenous technology through research and development (R&D) o... more This paper addresses the impact of endogenous technology through research and development (R&D) on the timing of climate change policy. We develop a model with a stock pollutant (carbon dioxide) and abatement technological change through R&D, and we use the model to study the interaction between carbon taxes and innovation externalities. Our analysis shows that the timing of optimal emission reduction policy strongly depends on the set of policy instruments available. When climate-specific R&D targeting instruments are available, policy has to use these to step up early innovation. When these instruments are not available, policy has to steer innovation through creating demand for emission saving technologies. That is, carbon taxes should be high compared to the Pigouvian levels when the abatement industry is developing. Finally, we calibrate the model in order to explore the magnitude of the theoretical findings within the context of climate change policy.
In this paper we ask whether OPEC still gains from cartelisation in the oil market despite low pr... more In this paper we ask whether OPEC still gains from cartelisation in the oil market despite low producer prices and a modest market share. We apply two intertemporai equilibrium models of the global oil market; one consisting of a cartel and a fringe, and one describing a hypothetical competitive market. Comparing the outcome of these models we conclude that there are positive cartelisation gains of about 18 percent in the oil market. In comparison with what Pindyck (1978) found for the 1970s this may be considered as quite modest. Moreover, we study whether the cartelisation gains to OPEC are altered by different moves by non-OPEC producers or consumer countries. Generally, we find that the relative cartelisation gains are unchanged. One exception is exploration activities, where we find that a major increase in non-OPEC reserves could remove the cartelisation gains to OPEC completely. In this case, the OPEC-countries could find themselves better off without the cartel.
In the absence of effective world-wide cooperation to curb global warming, import tariffs on embo... more In the absence of effective world-wide cooperation to curb global warming, import tariffs on embodied carbon have been proposed as a potential supplement to unilateral emissions pricing. We consider alternative designs for such tariffs, and analyze their effects on global welfare within a multi-region, multi-sector computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of global trade and energy. Our analysis suggests that the
We consider an international emissions trading scheme with partial sectoral and regional coverage... more We consider an international emissions trading scheme with partial sectoral and regional coverage. Sectoral and regional expansion of the trading scheme is beneficial in aggregate, but not necessarily for individual countries. We simulate international CO2 emission quota markets using marginal abatement cost functions and the Copenhagen 2020 climate policy targets for selected countries that strategically allocate emissions in a bid
This article discusses how different climate policy instruments such as CO2 taxes and renewable e... more This article discusses how different climate policy instruments such as CO2 taxes and renewable energy subsidies affect the profitability of fossil-fuel production, given that a fixed global climate target shall be achieved in the long term. Within an intertemporal framework, the model analyses show that CO2 taxes reduce the short-term profitability to a greater extent than technology subsidies, since the
This paper provides a survey of top-down modelling studies on mitigation costs and ancillary bene... more This paper provides a survey of top-down modelling studies on mitigation costs and ancillary benefits in the Nordic countries, the UK and Ireland. Special emphasise is put on results concerning revenue recycling, double dividend, distributional effects, and ancillary benefits. According to the papers surveyed, modest emissions restrictions as those given by the Kyoto Protocol, can be met without substantial costs for the countries studied.
This paper addresses the impact of endogenous technology through research and development (R&D) a... more This paper addresses the impact of endogenous technology through research and development (R&D) and learning by doing (LbD) on the timing of environmental policy. We develop two models, the first with R&D and the second with LbD. We study the interaction between environmental taxes and innovation externalities in a dynamic economy and prove policy equivalence between the second-best R&D and
In this paper we focus on how an international climate treaty will influence the exploration of o... more In this paper we focus on how an international climate treaty will influence the exploration of oil in Non-OPEC countries. We present a numerical intertemporal global equilibrium model for the fossil fuel markets. The international oil market is modelled with a cartel (OPEC) and a competitive fringe on the supply side, following a Nash-Cournot approach. An initial resource base for
In this paper, we analyze how oilrig activity in different non-OPEC regions is affected by the cr... more In this paper, we analyze how oilrig activity in different non-OPEC regions is affected by the crude oil price. We estimate relationships between oilrig activity and crude oil prices using dynamic regression models augmented with latent components capturing trend and seasonality. The results generally show a positive relationship between oilrig activity and the crude oil price, but the strength of
Using a computable equilibrium model, the short-run effects of a radical liberalization of the We... more Using a computable equilibrium model, the short-run effects of a radical liberalization of the West European natural gas and electricity markets are examined. In each model country, oil, gas, coal and electricity are produced, traded and consumed. There are world markets for oil and coal, and well-integrated competitive markets for gas and electricity in Western Europe. Gas and electricity are
We study the role of technology subsidies in climate policies, using a simple dynamic equilibrium... more We study the role of technology subsidies in climate policies, using a simple dynamic equilibrium model with learning by doing. The optimal subsidy rate of a carbon-free technology is high when the technology is first adopted, but falls significantly over the next decades. However, the efficiency costs of uniform instead of optimal subsidies, may be low if there are adjustment
This paper addresses the timing and interdependence between innovation and environmental policy i... more This paper addresses the timing and interdependence between innovation and environmental policy in a model of research and development (R&D). On a first-best path the environmental tax is set at the Pigouvian level, independent of innovation policy. With infinite patent lifetime, the R&D subsidy should be constant and independent of the state of the environment. However, with finite patent lifetime,
This paper examines how the existence of an upstream abatement technology sector affects optimal ... more This paper examines how the existence of an upstream abatement technology sector affects optimal environmental policy. We explore whether the policy should be especially stringent in order to spur a successful export industry based on abatement technology. Furthermore, we investigate if a stringent policy can be used to increase competition in the upstream sector. Our point of departure is a three-stage game between a government in a country with a polluting downstream industry, and a limited number of upstream firms supplying abatement technologies. The government moves first, and may use its environmental policy strategically to influence the behavior of the upstream technology firms. We find that an especially stringent environmental policy towards the polluting downstream sector may be well founded, as it increases competition between the technology suppliers, leading to lower abatement costs. However, to our surprise, an especially stringent environmental policy is not a particularly good industrial policy with respect to developing successful new export sectors based on abatement technology.
This paper addresses the impact of endogenous technology through research and development (R&D) a... more This paper addresses the impact of endogenous technology through research and development (R&D) and learning by doing (LbD) on the timing of environmental policy. We develop two models, the first with R&D and the second with LbD. We study the interaction between environmental taxes and innovation externalities in a dynamic economy and prove policy equivalence between the second-best R&D and the LbD model. Our analysis shows that the difference found in the literature between optimal environmental policy in R&D and LbD models can partly be traced back to the set of policy instruments available, rather than being directly linked to the source of technological innovation. Arguments for early action in LbD models carry over to a second-best R&D setting. We show that environmental taxes should be high compared to the Pigouvian levels when an abatement industry is developing. We illustrate our analysis through numerical simulations on climate change policy.
We explore a hypothesis that a change in investment behaviour among international oil companies (... more We explore a hypothesis that a change in investment behaviour among international oil companies (IOC) towards the end of the 1990s had long-lived effects on OPEC strategies, and on oil price formation. Coordinated investment constraints were imposed on the IOCs through financial market pressures for improved short-term profitability in the wake of the Asian economic crisis. We apply a partial
Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 2002
In this paper we focus on how an international climate treaty will influence the exploration of o... more In this paper we focus on how an international climate treaty will influence the exploration of oil in non-OPEC countries. We present a numerical intertemporal global equilibrium model for the fossil fuel markets. The international oil market is modelled with a cartel (OPEC) and a competitive fringe on the supply side, following a Nash–Cournot approach. An initial resource base for
This paper addresses the impact of endogenous technology through research and development (R&D) o... more This paper addresses the impact of endogenous technology through research and development (R&D) on the timing of climate change policy. We develop a model with a stock pollutant (carbon dioxide) and abatement technological change through R&D, and we use the model to study the interaction between carbon taxes and innovation externalities. Our analysis shows that the timing of optimal emission reduction policy strongly depends on the set of policy instruments available. When climate-specific R&D targeting instruments are available, policy has to use these to step up early innovation. When these instruments are not available, policy has to steer innovation through creating demand for emission saving technologies. That is, carbon taxes should be high compared to the Pigouvian levels when the abatement industry is developing. Finally, we calibrate the model in order to explore the magnitude of the theoretical findings within the context of climate change policy.
In this paper we ask whether OPEC still gains from cartelisation in the oil market despite low pr... more In this paper we ask whether OPEC still gains from cartelisation in the oil market despite low producer prices and a modest market share. We apply two intertemporai equilibrium models of the global oil market; one consisting of a cartel and a fringe, and one describing a hypothetical competitive market. Comparing the outcome of these models we conclude that there are positive cartelisation gains of about 18 percent in the oil market. In comparison with what Pindyck (1978) found for the 1970s this may be considered as quite modest. Moreover, we study whether the cartelisation gains to OPEC are altered by different moves by non-OPEC producers or consumer countries. Generally, we find that the relative cartelisation gains are unchanged. One exception is exploration activities, where we find that a major increase in non-OPEC reserves could remove the cartelisation gains to OPEC completely. In this case, the OPEC-countries could find themselves better off without the cartel.
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Papers by Knut Rosendahl