Papers by Shayne Kavanagh
Deleted Journal, Apr 1, 2024
Public budgeting and finance is a discipline that encompasses communities of research and practic... more Public budgeting and finance is a discipline that encompasses communities of research and practice. Too often, however, these communities fail to engage each other, instead choosing to operate independently. The result is that the research being conducted fails to address the questions of the day and our governments' challenges. In this article, we come together as a community of academics and practitioners to establish an agenda for where future research should be conducted. This agenda aims to align the research being undertaken within the academic community with the needs of those working in the community of practice. After establishing ten areas where research is needed, we followed a ranked-choice voting process to establish a prioritization for them. Based on the outcome of this process, the two primary areas where research is currently needed most are the fiscal health of our governments and the implementation of social equity budgeting.
National Civic Review, Mar 1, 2018
Financial sustainability was the top concern of an overwhelming number of GFOA members in the 201... more Financial sustainability was the top concern of an overwhelming number of GFOA members in the 2015 GFOA member survey. In fact, respondents raised financial sustainability almost three times more often than the next biggest issue. Of course, this survey was years removed from the 2007 Great Recession-yet financial sustainability was still topof-mind for a large portion of GFOA membership. Even without an economic storm like the 2007 Great Recession, local governments face financial headwinds that increase the probability of rough budgetary waters ahead:
Journal of Public Budgeting, Accounting & Financial Management, Mar 1, 2016
This study examines forecast accuracy associated with the forecast of 55 revenue data series of 1... more This study examines forecast accuracy associated with the forecast of 55 revenue data series of 18 local governments. The last 18 months (6 quarters; or 2 years) of the data are held-out for accuracy evaluation. Results show that forecast software, damped trend methods, and simple exponential smoothing methods perform best with monthly and quarterly data; and use of monthly or quarterly data is marginally better than annualized data. For monthly data, there is no advantage to converting dollar values to real dollars before forecasting and reconverting using a forecasted index. With annual data, naïve methods can outperform exponential smoothing methods for some types of data; and real dollar conversion generally outperforms nominal dollars. The study suggests benchmark forecast errors and recommends a process for selecting a forecast method.
Journal AWWA
Key TakeawaysFrom determining future water demands to setting rates, it's a given that most p... more Key TakeawaysFrom determining future water demands to setting rates, it's a given that most planning related to water requires managers to deal with uncertainties.If uncertainties are understood more clearly, then stakeholders buy in to resulting decisions more readily.Probability management provides principles, methods, standards, and tools to reduce the cost of confronting uncertainty when making decisions.
� Instant Messaging window for questions � Questions will be queued and asked during presentation... more � Instant Messaging window for questions � Questions will be queued and asked during presentation and during Q&A � “Speed ” of presentation
The Research and Consulting Center (RCC) is the management analysis and consulting arm of the Gov... more The Research and Consulting Center (RCC) is the management analysis and consulting arm of the Government Finance Officers Association. Since beginning operations in 1977, the RCC has provided management and technology advisory services to hundreds of local, county, and state governments; public utilities; elementary and secondary education systems; and transit authorities.The RCC is nationally recognized for its comprehensive analytical and advisory services, as well as for specialized research on state and local government finance. You can learn more about us and contact us at www.gfoaconsulting.org or 312-977-9700.
The Research and Consulting Center (RCC) is the management analysis and consulting arm of the Gov... more The Research and Consulting Center (RCC) is the management analysis and consulting arm of the Government Finance Officers Association. Since beginning operations in 1977, the RCC has provided management and technology advisory services to hundreds of local, county, and state governments; public utilities; elementary and secondary education systems; and transit authorities.The RCC is nationally recognized for its comprehensive analytical and advisory services, as well as for specialized research on state and local government finance. You can learn more about us and contact us at www.gfoaconsulting.org or 312-977-9700.
The Research and Consulting Center (RCC) is the management analysis and consulting arm of the Gov... more The Research and Consulting Center (RCC) is the management analysis and consulting arm of the Government Finance Officers Association. Since beginning operations in 1977, the RCC has provided management and technology advisory services to hundreds of local, county, and state governments; public utilities; elementary and secondary education systems; and transit authorities.The RCC is nationally recognized for its comprehensive analytical and advisory services, as well as for specialized research on state and local government finance. You can learn more about us and contact us at www.gfoaconsulting.org or 312-977-9700.
National Civic Review, 2018
Financial sustainability was the top concern of an overwhelming number of GFOA members in the 201... more Financial sustainability was the top concern of an overwhelming number of GFOA members in the 2015 GFOA member survey. In fact, respondents raised financial sustainability almost three times more often than the next biggest issue. Of course, this survey was years removed from the 2007 Great Recession-yet financial sustainability was still topof-mind for a large portion of GFOA membership. Even without an economic storm like the 2007 Great Recession, local governments face financial headwinds that increase the probability of rough budgetary waters ahead:
Journal of Public Budgeting, Accounting & Financial Management, 2016
This study examines forecast accuracy associated with the forecast of 55 revenue data series of 1... more This study examines forecast accuracy associated with the forecast of 55 revenue data series of 18 local governments. The last 18 months (6 quarters; or 2 years) of the data are held-out for accuracy evaluation. Results show that forecast software, damped trend methods, and simple exponential smoothing methods perform best with monthly and quarterly data; and use of monthly or quarterly data is marginally better than annualized data. For monthly data, there is no advantage to converting dollar values to real dollars before forecasting and reconverting using a forecasted index. With annual data, naïve methods can outperform exponential smoothing methods for some types of data; and real dollar conversion generally outperforms nominal dollars. The study suggests benchmark forecast errors and recommends a process for selecting a forecast method.
National Civic Review, 2017
Building and Maintaining Solid Infrastructure in the Town of Gilbert* Words like "crisis" and "cr... more Building and Maintaining Solid Infrastructure in the Town of Gilbert* Words like "crisis" and "crumbling" have been widely used in the media to describe the state of local infrastructure in the United States-and with good reason: one out of every nine bridges in the United States is considered deficient and almost one-third of the major roads in U.S. are in poor condition. The worst examples, like bridge collapses and sink holes, make national news and even claim lives. In other instances, infrastructure failures create large, unplanned expenditures, disrupt the local economy, and reduce citizens' trust in government.
National Civic Review, 2016
became the 49th mayor of the City of Baltimore under less than ideal conditions. Formerly the Cit... more became the 49th mayor of the City of Baltimore under less than ideal conditions. Formerly the City Council President, she became mayor in the middle of the budget process when Mayor Sheila Dixon resigned her position and, by City statute, the Council President assumed the vacant office. And this was no ordinary budget process. The City was facing a record budget shortfall in fiscal year 2011: $120 million in the general fund operating budget plus a $65 million pension shortfall. This deficit totaled about 9% of the City's budgeted 2010 expenditures of $1.35 billion. The challenge was even graver than these numbers suggest because just under half of the budget was already consumed by "fixed" costs like debt service, pension payments, and state-mandated levels of financial support for the Baltimore public schools. This meant the City had to take drastic measures to surmount a shortfall equal to about 17% of its discretionary resources.
National Civic Review, 2017
Williams, D. W., & Kavanagh, S. (2016). Local Government Revenue Forecasting: Competition and Com... more Williams, D. W., & Kavanagh, S. (2016). Local Government Revenue Forecasting: Competition and Comparison. Journal of Public Budgeting, Accounting, and Financial Management, 28(4), 488-526.
Kavanagh, S. C., & Williams, D. W. (2016). Turning Around the City of Baltimore with Long-Term Fo... more Kavanagh, S. C., & Williams, D. W. (2016). Turning Around the City of Baltimore with Long-Term Forecasting and Scenario Analysis. National Civic Review, 105(4), 33-39. doi:10.1002/ncr.21295
Books by Shayne Kavanagh
Kavanagh, S., & Williams, D. W. (2016). Informed Decision-Making through Forecasting: A Practitio... more Kavanagh, S., & Williams, D. W. (2016). Informed Decision-Making through Forecasting: A Practitioners Guide to Government Revenue Analysis. Chicago: Government Financial Officers Association.
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Papers by Shayne Kavanagh
Books by Shayne Kavanagh