Working Papers by Hugo Ferrer-Perez
When studying the emergence of new global markets it is essential to consider how countries and c... more When studying the emergence of new global markets it is essential to consider how countries and companies compete to obtain advantageous positions. Our objective is to study how France obtained an initial leadership position in the new global wine market which it subsequently consolidated. We will also analyse the main determinants of its exporting success. In order to do this we have quantified its exports and examined its evolution and its principal export markets. We have also used a gravity model for both ordinary wine and high quality wine in order to establish the key variables that explain this evolution. The article highlights the great efforts made by the exporters to improve the quality of their products and increase their sales using modern marketing techniques. Our econometric results also show some significant differences between the determinants of exports for the two types of wine. However, the exports of both products suffered the strong impact of a series of major events, such as The First World War, the Russian Revolution, the Prohibition in the United States and the Great Depression. The case of wine shows that the collapse of the first globalisation was not the same for all types of product.
Papers by Hugo Ferrer-Perez
Japanese Economic Review, 2018
Cai and Shintani (2006, Econometric Theory, 22, 347–372) considered the impact of introducing an ... more Cai and Shintani (2006, Econometric Theory, 22, 347–372) considered the impact of introducing an inconsistent long-run variance estimator when constructing a class of kernel-based ratio tests for testing non-stationarity in the series. They found that the quotient of two estimators with different rates of convergence under the null and the alternative hypotheses may lead to a test having an interesting size and power trade-off. This paper develops modified versions of this test, presents new asymptotic results and tabulates critical values. The finite sample performance is explored through Monte Carlo simulations. The results show that the modifications proposed lead to more powerful unit root tests.
Mathematics and Computers in Simulation, 2017
To specify an econometric model with time series data, it is important to determine the order of ... more To specify an econometric model with time series data, it is important to determine the order of integration of the variables in the model. In this paper, using a complete set of Monte Carlo experiments, we compare the behaviour of two stationarity tests, the Xiao test (Sn) and the KPSS (Kwiatkowski, Phillips, Schmidt and Shin) test, using an alternative estimator of the long-run variance to those used in the original version of the tests, to recommend which one to use in practice. First, we compare the small sample properties of the original Sn test with those of its modified version. We conclude that this modified version has a better size versus power trade-off than the original test. So, second, we compare the finite sample properties of the modified Sn and the modified KPSS. Since the modified KPSS exhibits higher power and size, we conduct a second experiment determining the critical value of each test, in such a way that the power of both tests coincides at 0.5, and then we examine their size for some local-to-unity values. The results show that, in most cases, the performance of the modified KPSS test dominates that of the modified Sn test.
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Working Papers by Hugo Ferrer-Perez
Papers by Hugo Ferrer-Perez