This paper offers a descriptive portrait of income poverty among children in Germany between the ... more This paper offers a descriptive portrait of income poverty among children in Germany between the early 1980s and 2001, with a focus on developments since unification in 1991. Data from the German Socio-Economic Panel are used to estimate poverty rates, rates of entry to and exit from poverty, and the duration of time spent in and out of poverty. The analysis focuses upon comparisons between East and West Germany, by family structure, and citizenship status. Child poverty rates have drifted upward since 1991, and have been increasing more than the rates for the overall population since the mid-1990s. In part these changes are due to increasing poverty among children from households headed by noncitizens. Children in single parent households are by all measures at considerable risk of living in poverty. There are also substantial differences in the incidence of child poverty and its dynamics between East and West Germany.
The Importance of Heterogeneity and Attrition Bias * Heterogeneity in the ethnic composition of G... more The Importance of Heterogeneity and Attrition Bias * Heterogeneity in the ethnic composition of Germany's immigrant population renders general conclusions on the degree of economic integration difficult. Using a rich longitudinal data-set, this paper tests for differences in economic assimilation profiles of four groups of foreign-born immigrants and ethnic Germans. The importance of time-invariant individual unobserved heterogeneity and panel attrition in determining the speed of assimilation is analysed. We find evidence for heterogeneity in the assimilation profiles for both annual earnings and unemployment probabilities. Robust assimilation profiles are found for two cohorts only. Omitted variables, systematic sample attrition and the presence of second generation immigrants in the sample influence the speed of assimilation, but do not change the overall picture.
This Discussion Paper is issued within the framework of IZA's research area Mobility and Flexibil... more This Discussion Paper is issued within the framework of IZA's research area Mobility and Flexibility of Labor. Any opinions expressed here are those of the author(s) and not those of the institute. Research disseminated by IZA may include views on policy, but the institute itself takes no institutional policy positions.
Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch ge... more Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden.
This study evaluates potential migration flows to the European Union from its Eastern neighbors a... more This study evaluates potential migration flows to the European Union from its Eastern neighbors and Croatia. We perform out-of-sample forecasts to time series cross-sectional data about post-enlargement migration flows following the EU's 2004 enlargement. We consider two baseline policy scenarios, with and without accession of sending countries to the EU. Our results show that migration flows are driven by migration costs and economic conditions, but the largest effects accrue to policy variables. In terms of the predicted flows: (i) we can expect modest migration flows in the case of no liberalization of labor markets and only moderately increased migration flows under liberalization; (ii) after an initial increase following liberalization, migration flows will subside to a long run steady state; (iii) Ukraine will send the most migrants; and (iv) the largest inflows in absolute terms are predicted for Germany, Italy and Austria, whereas Ireland, Denmark, Finland and again Austria are the main receiving countries relative to their population.
This series presents research findings based either directly on data from the German Socio-Econom... more This series presents research findings based either directly on data from the German Socio-Economic Panel Study (SOEP) or using SOEP data as part of an internationally comparable data set (e.g. CNEF, ECHP, LIS, LWS, CHER/PACO). SOEP is a truly multidisciplinary household panel study covering a wide range of social and behavioral sciences: economics, sociology, psychology, survey methodology, econometrics and applied statistics, educational science, political science, public health, behavioral genetics, demography, geography, and sport science.
This Discussion Paper is issued within the framework of IZA's research area Mobility and Flexibil... more This Discussion Paper is issued within the framework of IZA's research area Mobility and Flexibility of Labor. Any opinions expressed here are those of the author(s) and not those of the institute. Research disseminated by IZA may include views on policy, but the institute itself takes no institutional policy positions.
ABSTRACT We use longitudinal data over 21 years of the German Socio-Economic Panel to investigate... more ABSTRACT We use longitudinal data over 21 years of the German Socio-Economic Panel to investigate the labour market performance of immigrants relative to comparable German natives. The contribution of this paper is twofold: First, we distinguish between four dierent immigration cohorts and ethnic Germans to control for the possibility of a change in 'quality' among immigrants. Both pooled and xed-eects panel data specications are considered, the latter to control for omitted variable bias. Second, we will account for selection bias caused by panel attrition, namely the decision to partic-ipate in the interview by both foreigners and German natives and the decision to stay in Germany by foreigners only, with selectivity correction terms calculated from uni-and bivariate reduced form probit models. In general, we nd evidence for the assimilation hypothesis only for ethnic Germans and the youngest rst generation cohort for average earnings. In contrast, we nd a convex assimi-lation prole in unemployment probabilities only for ethnic Germans. These results are robust along a variety of model specications and sample denitions. The speed of assimilation is over-estimated for average earnings and under-estimated for employment probabilities. Correcting for selection bias in the earnings equation decreases initial disadvantages of all foreigner subgroups relative to German natives, but also lowers the speed of assimilation. The net eect of sample selection adjustment is that catch-up with the average earnings of comparable German for the considered groups takes instead of 10 only 8 years.
This Discussion Paper is issued within the framework of IZA's research area Mobility and Flexibil... more This Discussion Paper is issued within the framework of IZA's research area Mobility and Flexibility of Labor Markets. Any opinions expressed here are those of the author(s) and not those of the institute. Research disseminated by IZA may include views on policy, but the institute itself takes no institutional policy positions.
Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch ge... more Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden.
This series presents research findings based either directly on data from the German Socio-Econom... more This series presents research findings based either directly on data from the German Socio-Economic Panel Study (SOEP) or using SOEP data as part of an internationally comparable data set (e.g. CNEF, ECHP, LIS, LWS, CHER/PACO). SOEP is a truly multidisciplinary household panel study covering a wide range of social and behavioral sciences: economics, sociology, psychology, survey methodology, econometrics and applied statistics, educational science, political science, public health, behavioral genetics, demography, geography, and sport science.
This Discussion Paper is issued within the framework of IZA's research area 0RELOLW\ DQG )OH[LELO... more This Discussion Paper is issued within the framework of IZA's research area 0RELOLW\ DQG )OH[LELOLW\ RI /DERU 0DUNHWV. Any opinions expressed here are those of the author(s) and not those of the institute. Research disseminated by IZA may include views on policy, but the institute itself takes no institutional policy positions.
Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch ge... more Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden.
This paper offers a descriptive portrait of income poverty among children in Germany between the ... more This paper offers a descriptive portrait of income poverty among children in Germany between the early 1980s and 2001, with a focus on developments since unification in 1991. Data from the German Socio-Economic Panel are used to estimate poverty rates, rates of entry to and exit from poverty, and the duration of time spent in and out of poverty. The analysis focuses upon comparisons between East and West Germany, by family structure, and citizenship status. Child poverty rates have drifted upward since 1991, and have been increasing more than the rates for the overall population since the mid-1990s. In part these changes are due to increasing poverty among children from households headed by noncitizens. Children in single parent households are by all measures at considerable risk of living in poverty. There are also substantial differences in the incidence of child poverty and its dynamics between East and West Germany.
The Importance of Heterogeneity and Attrition Bias * Heterogeneity in the ethnic composition of G... more The Importance of Heterogeneity and Attrition Bias * Heterogeneity in the ethnic composition of Germany's immigrant population renders general conclusions on the degree of economic integration difficult. Using a rich longitudinal data-set, this paper tests for differences in economic assimilation profiles of four groups of foreign-born immigrants and ethnic Germans. The importance of time-invariant individual unobserved heterogeneity and panel attrition in determining the speed of assimilation is analysed. We find evidence for heterogeneity in the assimilation profiles for both annual earnings and unemployment probabilities. Robust assimilation profiles are found for two cohorts only. Omitted variables, systematic sample attrition and the presence of second generation immigrants in the sample influence the speed of assimilation, but do not change the overall picture.
This Discussion Paper is issued within the framework of IZA's research area Mobility and Flexibil... more This Discussion Paper is issued within the framework of IZA's research area Mobility and Flexibility of Labor. Any opinions expressed here are those of the author(s) and not those of the institute. Research disseminated by IZA may include views on policy, but the institute itself takes no institutional policy positions.
Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch ge... more Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden.
This study evaluates potential migration flows to the European Union from its Eastern neighbors a... more This study evaluates potential migration flows to the European Union from its Eastern neighbors and Croatia. We perform out-of-sample forecasts to time series cross-sectional data about post-enlargement migration flows following the EU's 2004 enlargement. We consider two baseline policy scenarios, with and without accession of sending countries to the EU. Our results show that migration flows are driven by migration costs and economic conditions, but the largest effects accrue to policy variables. In terms of the predicted flows: (i) we can expect modest migration flows in the case of no liberalization of labor markets and only moderately increased migration flows under liberalization; (ii) after an initial increase following liberalization, migration flows will subside to a long run steady state; (iii) Ukraine will send the most migrants; and (iv) the largest inflows in absolute terms are predicted for Germany, Italy and Austria, whereas Ireland, Denmark, Finland and again Austria are the main receiving countries relative to their population.
This series presents research findings based either directly on data from the German Socio-Econom... more This series presents research findings based either directly on data from the German Socio-Economic Panel Study (SOEP) or using SOEP data as part of an internationally comparable data set (e.g. CNEF, ECHP, LIS, LWS, CHER/PACO). SOEP is a truly multidisciplinary household panel study covering a wide range of social and behavioral sciences: economics, sociology, psychology, survey methodology, econometrics and applied statistics, educational science, political science, public health, behavioral genetics, demography, geography, and sport science.
This Discussion Paper is issued within the framework of IZA's research area Mobility and Flexibil... more This Discussion Paper is issued within the framework of IZA's research area Mobility and Flexibility of Labor. Any opinions expressed here are those of the author(s) and not those of the institute. Research disseminated by IZA may include views on policy, but the institute itself takes no institutional policy positions.
ABSTRACT We use longitudinal data over 21 years of the German Socio-Economic Panel to investigate... more ABSTRACT We use longitudinal data over 21 years of the German Socio-Economic Panel to investigate the labour market performance of immigrants relative to comparable German natives. The contribution of this paper is twofold: First, we distinguish between four dierent immigration cohorts and ethnic Germans to control for the possibility of a change in 'quality' among immigrants. Both pooled and xed-eects panel data specications are considered, the latter to control for omitted variable bias. Second, we will account for selection bias caused by panel attrition, namely the decision to partic-ipate in the interview by both foreigners and German natives and the decision to stay in Germany by foreigners only, with selectivity correction terms calculated from uni-and bivariate reduced form probit models. In general, we nd evidence for the assimilation hypothesis only for ethnic Germans and the youngest rst generation cohort for average earnings. In contrast, we nd a convex assimi-lation prole in unemployment probabilities only for ethnic Germans. These results are robust along a variety of model specications and sample denitions. The speed of assimilation is over-estimated for average earnings and under-estimated for employment probabilities. Correcting for selection bias in the earnings equation decreases initial disadvantages of all foreigner subgroups relative to German natives, but also lowers the speed of assimilation. The net eect of sample selection adjustment is that catch-up with the average earnings of comparable German for the considered groups takes instead of 10 only 8 years.
This Discussion Paper is issued within the framework of IZA's research area Mobility and Flexibil... more This Discussion Paper is issued within the framework of IZA's research area Mobility and Flexibility of Labor Markets. Any opinions expressed here are those of the author(s) and not those of the institute. Research disseminated by IZA may include views on policy, but the institute itself takes no institutional policy positions.
Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch ge... more Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden.
This series presents research findings based either directly on data from the German Socio-Econom... more This series presents research findings based either directly on data from the German Socio-Economic Panel Study (SOEP) or using SOEP data as part of an internationally comparable data set (e.g. CNEF, ECHP, LIS, LWS, CHER/PACO). SOEP is a truly multidisciplinary household panel study covering a wide range of social and behavioral sciences: economics, sociology, psychology, survey methodology, econometrics and applied statistics, educational science, political science, public health, behavioral genetics, demography, geography, and sport science.
This Discussion Paper is issued within the framework of IZA's research area 0RELOLW\ DQG )OH[LELO... more This Discussion Paper is issued within the framework of IZA's research area 0RELOLW\ DQG )OH[LELOLW\ RI /DERU 0DUNHWV. Any opinions expressed here are those of the author(s) and not those of the institute. Research disseminated by IZA may include views on policy, but the institute itself takes no institutional policy positions.
Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch ge... more Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden.
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