Papers by Fernando Gabriel Im
All rights reserved This report was prepared by the staff of the Africa Region Poverty Reduction ... more All rights reserved This report was prepared by the staff of the Africa Region Poverty Reduction and Economic Management. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the World Bank's Board of Executive Directors or the countries they represent.
Policy Research Working Papers, 2013
The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encoura... more The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry the names of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank and its affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent.
The year 2018 was a challenging year for Sri Lanka. Growth remained subdued, although there have ... more The year 2018 was a challenging year for Sri Lanka. Growth remained subdued, although there have been signs of a recovery in the first half from the impact of a series of natural calamities in the preceding two years. Inflation stabilized in the mid to low-single digit levels thanks to low food inflation, which compensated for currency depreciation and the fuel price pass-through. However, the deficit in the external current account widened amid a higher import bill, despite improved export performance. While the primary balance in fiscal accounts remained in surplus, the overall fiscal balance was high due to high interest expenditures, which continue to mask the overall fiscal improvement. The exchange rate came under heavy depreciation pressure, reflecting the effect of global financial market conditions, compounded by adverse domestic political developments. International reserves declined from their peak level in April, weakening the ability to deal with economic shocks amid la...
China Economic Journal, Jun 23, 2010
This paper advances an alternative explanation of the large external imbalance between the United... more This paper advances an alternative explanation of the large external imbalance between the United States and China, and its linkages to the current global financial crisis. We show that US current account deficits dated back long before the emergence of China's recent large trade surpluses, with China accounting at its peak for at most one-third of this deficit. The relative rise in China's savings in recent years can be attributed to an increase in its corporate savings, a trend which reflects distortions arising from the transition process from a planned to a market economy. These distortions exacerbate China's income inequality, causing domestic consumption to remain a small share of GDP. Large recent current account deficits in the United States, on the other hand, can be attributed to public sector dissavings and perverse incentives generated by housing and equity bubbles, made possible by loose monetary policy and by "innovative" financial derivatives arising from the financial deregulation in the early 1980s. The paper shows that short run measures are unlikely to fully address these external imbalances. Both countries require long run, structural measures to resolve the underlying problems and to restore a sustainable foundation for growth. 1 Paper prepared for the Edward Chen Distinguished Lecture delivered in Hong Kong University on November 9, 2009 by Justin Lin. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank and its affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent.
All rights reserved This report was prepared by the staff of the Africa Region Poverty Reduction ... more All rights reserved This report was prepared by the staff of the Africa Region Poverty Reduction and Economic Management. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the World Bank's Board of Executive Directors or the countries they represent.
The term " middle-income trap " has entered common parlance in the development policy community, ... more The term " middle-income trap " has entered common parlance in the development policy community, despite the lack of a precise definition. This paper discusses in more detail the definitional issues associated with the term. It also provides evidence on whether the growth performance of middle-income countries (MICs) has been different from other income categories, including historical transition phases in the inter-country distribution of income. A transition matrix analysis and an exploration of crosscountry growth patterns provide little support for the existence of a middle-income trap.
In recent years, the term “middle-income trap” has
entered common parlance in the development pol... more In recent years, the term “middle-income trap” has
entered common parlance in the development policy
community. The term itself often has not been precisely
defined in the incipient literature. This paper discusses
in more detail definitional issues on the so-called
middle-income trap. The paper presents evidence in
terms of both absolute and relative thresholds. To get a
better understanding of whether the performance of the
middle-income trap has been different from other income categories, the paper examines historical transition
phases in the inter-country distribution of income based
on previous work in the literature. Transition matrix
analysis provides little support for the idea of a middle income
trap. Analysis of cross-country patterns of growth
provides additional support for the conclusions in the
paper, which closes with a general discussion of potential
policy implications.
China Economic Journal, Jun 23, 2010
This paper advances an alternative explanation of the large external imbalance between the United... more This paper advances an alternative explanation of the large external imbalance between the United States and China, and its linkages to the current global financial crisis. We show that US current account deficits dated back long before the emergence of China's recent large trade surpluses, with China accounting at its peak for at most one-third of this deficit. The relative rise in China's savings in recent years can be attributed to an increase in its corporate savings, a trend which reflects distortions arising from the transition process from a planned to a market economy.
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Papers by Fernando Gabriel Im
entered common parlance in the development policy
community. The term itself often has not been precisely
defined in the incipient literature. This paper discusses
in more detail definitional issues on the so-called
middle-income trap. The paper presents evidence in
terms of both absolute and relative thresholds. To get a
better understanding of whether the performance of the
middle-income trap has been different from other income categories, the paper examines historical transition
phases in the inter-country distribution of income based
on previous work in the literature. Transition matrix
analysis provides little support for the idea of a middle income
trap. Analysis of cross-country patterns of growth
provides additional support for the conclusions in the
paper, which closes with a general discussion of potential
policy implications.
entered common parlance in the development policy
community. The term itself often has not been precisely
defined in the incipient literature. This paper discusses
in more detail definitional issues on the so-called
middle-income trap. The paper presents evidence in
terms of both absolute and relative thresholds. To get a
better understanding of whether the performance of the
middle-income trap has been different from other income categories, the paper examines historical transition
phases in the inter-country distribution of income based
on previous work in the literature. Transition matrix
analysis provides little support for the idea of a middle income
trap. Analysis of cross-country patterns of growth
provides additional support for the conclusions in the
paper, which closes with a general discussion of potential
policy implications.