Papers by Erdenebadrakh Munkhjargal
ScIEntIfIc REportS , 2018
Socio-ecological damage from climate-related disasters has increased worldwide, including a type ... more Socio-ecological damage from climate-related disasters has increased worldwide, including a type of
cold-season disaster (dzud) that is unique to the Eurasian steppes, notably Mongolia. During 2000–
2014, dzuds killed approximately 30 million livestock and impacted the Mongolian socio-economy. The
contributions of both natural and social processes to livestock mortality were not previously considered
across Mongolia. Here, we consider the contribution of both multiple climate hazards (drought, cold
temperatures and snow), and socioeconomic vulnerability (herders’ livestock and coping-capacity)
to mortality risk. We performed multi-regression analyses for each province using meteorological,
livestock and socioeconomic datasets. Our results show that 93.5% of mortality within Mongolia was
caused by a combination of multi-hazards (47.3%) and vulnerability (46.2%), suggesting dzuds were
both climate- and man-made. However, in high-mortality hotspots, mortality was primarily caused
by multi-hazards (drought-induced pasture defciency and deep-snow). Livestock overpopulation
and a lack of coping capacities that caused inadequate preparedness (e.g., hay/forage) were the main
vulnerability factors. Frequent and severe multi-hazards greatly increased the mortality risk, while
increased vulnerability caused by socioeconomic changes in Mongolia since the 1990s tended to amplify
the efects of multi-hazards. Thus, reductions in herder vulnerability within high-mortality hotspots
would likely be an efective means of mitigating the risk of future dzuds.
In addition to the total amount of precipitation, the number, type and duration of rain events pl... more In addition to the total amount of precipitation, the number, type and duration of rain events play a critical role in hydrological cycle, land surface processes, vegetation and land cover dynamics in such semi-arid regions as Mongolia where water availability is the main determinant of ecosystem functioning and services. However, only a limited number of studies have so far focused on certain aspects of changes in rain types and durations for Mongolia as a whole, while a relatively large number of studies have examined trends observed in total annual precipitation for the country. In the present study, we evaluated changes in not only the amount, but also in the number and total duration of rain types using the data on start-to-end times of all rain events from 55 meteorological stations scattered throughout Mon-golia between 1981 and 2014, a period for which this type of analysis was made possible for the first time. Our study confirms that there has been no significant change in the amount of mean summer precipitation for almost all parts of the country for the last 34 years, with only a few stations showing a significant decreasing trend. In terms of rain types, the number and duration of convective rains have increased, while those of stratiform rain events have decreased over Mongolia, a trend that is more pronounced around Khangai mountain area in central Mongolia and southeastern desert steppe and eastern steppe, suggesting a possible transition from stratiform rains to convective rains. The findings of this research imply that increasing temperature and altered rain type ratios may affect each other as the decreasing number and duration of stratiform rain events allow for progressively longer sunshine period, possibly feeding back to the increased temperature. The release of this latent heat fuelling the upward movement of moisture and producing the con-vective rains could be one of the reasons of the significant rise in convective rain frequency for the study period. The observed changes in rain patterns have significant implications in ecosystem functioning and resource management. Keywords Precipitation patterns Á Mongolia Á Convective rain Á Stratiform rain Á Number and duration of rain events
Uploads
Papers by Erdenebadrakh Munkhjargal
cold-season disaster (dzud) that is unique to the Eurasian steppes, notably Mongolia. During 2000–
2014, dzuds killed approximately 30 million livestock and impacted the Mongolian socio-economy. The
contributions of both natural and social processes to livestock mortality were not previously considered
across Mongolia. Here, we consider the contribution of both multiple climate hazards (drought, cold
temperatures and snow), and socioeconomic vulnerability (herders’ livestock and coping-capacity)
to mortality risk. We performed multi-regression analyses for each province using meteorological,
livestock and socioeconomic datasets. Our results show that 93.5% of mortality within Mongolia was
caused by a combination of multi-hazards (47.3%) and vulnerability (46.2%), suggesting dzuds were
both climate- and man-made. However, in high-mortality hotspots, mortality was primarily caused
by multi-hazards (drought-induced pasture defciency and deep-snow). Livestock overpopulation
and a lack of coping capacities that caused inadequate preparedness (e.g., hay/forage) were the main
vulnerability factors. Frequent and severe multi-hazards greatly increased the mortality risk, while
increased vulnerability caused by socioeconomic changes in Mongolia since the 1990s tended to amplify
the efects of multi-hazards. Thus, reductions in herder vulnerability within high-mortality hotspots
would likely be an efective means of mitigating the risk of future dzuds.
cold-season disaster (dzud) that is unique to the Eurasian steppes, notably Mongolia. During 2000–
2014, dzuds killed approximately 30 million livestock and impacted the Mongolian socio-economy. The
contributions of both natural and social processes to livestock mortality were not previously considered
across Mongolia. Here, we consider the contribution of both multiple climate hazards (drought, cold
temperatures and snow), and socioeconomic vulnerability (herders’ livestock and coping-capacity)
to mortality risk. We performed multi-regression analyses for each province using meteorological,
livestock and socioeconomic datasets. Our results show that 93.5% of mortality within Mongolia was
caused by a combination of multi-hazards (47.3%) and vulnerability (46.2%), suggesting dzuds were
both climate- and man-made. However, in high-mortality hotspots, mortality was primarily caused
by multi-hazards (drought-induced pasture defciency and deep-snow). Livestock overpopulation
and a lack of coping capacities that caused inadequate preparedness (e.g., hay/forage) were the main
vulnerability factors. Frequent and severe multi-hazards greatly increased the mortality risk, while
increased vulnerability caused by socioeconomic changes in Mongolia since the 1990s tended to amplify
the efects of multi-hazards. Thus, reductions in herder vulnerability within high-mortality hotspots
would likely be an efective means of mitigating the risk of future dzuds.